The Bum's Friday's MLB Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Friday

September 7, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Indians are 0-10 since May 12, 2012 when playing a night game on the road after allowing 6+ runs in a night game for a net profit of $1015 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The White Sox are 12-0 OU since April 08, 2011 as a 140+ favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $1200 when playing the over.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Cubs are 0-10 since July 17, 2012 when Travis Wood starts as a dog for a net profit of $1000 when playing against.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Mariners are 20-0 (3.1 rpg) since June 7th, 2009 as a 130+ home favorite when they are off a win in which they scored in at most two separate innings and were at least tied after seven innings.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Yankees are 6-0 since April 19, 2012 when Phil Hughes starts after giving up 2 or more home runs for a net profit of $610.

-- The Tigers are 7-0 since July 19, 2012 when Max Scherzer starts as a favorite for a net profit of $700.

[StarDust Bum]

Giants host rival Dodgers on Friday

LOS ANGELES DODGERS (73-65)

at SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (77-60)


First pitch: Friday, 10:15 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -115, Los Angeles +105, Total: 7

With a 4½-game lead in the NL West, the Giants will host the second-place Dodgers for a three-game set beginning Friday night.

Both teams enter this series having won three games in a row then losing their most recent two. And both teams will trot out starters who were once phenoms, but have seen better times. Josh Beckett takes the hill for the Dodgers with a 6-12 record in 2012, sporting a 5.03 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Since being traded to the Dodgers, he is 1-1 with 15 strikeouts in 12.1 innings, sporting a much more Beckett-like 2.92 ERA. He faces Tim Lincecum, who has a 5.21 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 8-14 record this year. But he is much better at home, where he has a 4.01 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Although the Giants have held on admirably since Melky Cabrera was suspended for steroids (13-7 record), the Dodgers are just starting to gel with their new acquisitions, led by Hanley Ramirez, who has 37 RBI in 40 games since being acquired from the Marlins. And San Francisco is not playing well in its home ballpark, going 7-14 in its past 21 games at AT&T Park. As slight underdogs, take LOS ANGELES in this one.

This pair of three-star FoxSheets trends also favor the Dodgers:

Play On - Any team (L.A. DODGERS) - revenging a 3 game sweep at the hands of their opponents, off a loss to a division rival as a favorite. (37-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.2%, +27 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Any team (SAN FRANCISCO) - average offensive team (4.3 to 4.8 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA=4.20 to 5.20)-NL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season (NL). (43-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.4%, +25.3 units. Rating = 3*).

The Dodgers have lost two straight, scoring three runs in each game despite garnering 10 hits in each contest. This makes four consecutive games in which they notched double-digit hits, but they have left 9, 8, 9 and 9 runners on base in these contests. Beckett is just 4-4 in his career against San Francisco, but has pitched quite well in those outings, though none of them have come since 2005. In his eight career starts, he has a 3.04 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He goes relatively deep into games, with 6.1 innings per start, but has adequate support by the L.A. bullpen that has a 3.37 ERA and 1.28 WHIP on the season. The Dodgers pen is much weaker on the road however, where they have a 4.33 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.

These two teams are 3-3 against each other in San Francisco this year, though the Giants have won seven of 12 overall meetings including a sweep in L.A. the last time these teams squared off from Aug. 20-22. The Giants have a slight 13-11 advantage at home over the past three years versus Los Angeles. Lincecum, who has a 2-1 record and 3.18 ERA in his past three starts, will be thrilled to see the Dodgers. He has a 2.82 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in his career against them with a 6-5 record (team is 10-7). This includes a dominant past two starts against San Francisco this year, in which he allowed just one earned run and nine hits in 12.2 innings, striking out 12. Although Lincecum averages just 5.6 innings per start, he is supported by a bullpen that has a 3.36 ERA and 1.29 WHIP this year. He will need the offense to improve off its four-hit, two-run game from Wednesday, but considering the Giants score mere 3.5 runs per game at home (3rd-lowest in majors), Lincecum can’t bank on a ton of run support.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, September 7

Hot pitchers
-- Strasburg is 2-0, 0.50 in his last three home starts.
-- Lee is 2-0, 1.74 in his last three starts.
-- Harrell is 3-3, 2.87 in his last ten starts.
-- Niese is 2-2, 2.22 in his last four starts.
-- Gallardo is 6-0, 3.04 in his last seven starts. Lohse is 3-0, 3.13 in his last six outings.
-- Skaggs is 1-1, 3.12 in his first three MLB starts.
-- Beckett is 1-1, 2.92 in two starts for the Dodgers. Lincecum is 2-1, 3.18 in his last three starts.

-- WChen is 1-0, 2.25 in his last two home starts.
-- Holland is 3-0, 4.50 in his last three starts. Hellickson has a 2.88 RA in his last four starts.
-- Liriano is 2-1, 3.80 in his last four starts.
-- Scherzer is 5-0, 1.03 in his last five starts. ESantana is 3-1, 2.96 in his last four starts.
-- Griffin is 4-0, 2.41 in his last six starts. FHernandez is 3-1, 1.64 in his last four outings.

Cold pitchers
-- Turner is 1-3, 8.83 in his last four starts.
-- Wood is 0-3, 6.22 in his last four starts. Burnett is 1-2, 6.10 in his last five outings.
-- Francis has a 7.07 RA in his last eight starts.
-- Bailey is 0-2, 5.19 in his last four starts.
-- Maholm is 0-2, 7.47 in his last three starts.
-- Cashner had a 2.53 RA in three starts before going on DL.

-- Hughes is 2-4, 6.03 in his last six starts.
-- Alvarez is 0-5, 8.59 in his last six starts. Doubrant is 0-3, 7.85 in his last six starts.
-- Gomez is 1-3, 7.84 in his last four starts. Hendriks is 0-7, 8.12 in his last nine starts.
-- Mendoza is 2-2, 4.93 in his last six starts.

Hot Teams
-- Nationals won their last five games, scoring 35 runs.
-- Pirates won four of their last five home games.
-- Phillies won five of their last seven games.
-- Reds won six of their last nine games.
-- Mets won eight of their last eleven games. Atlanta won four of five.
-- Brewers won 13 of their last 17 games.
-- Padres won 12 of their last 16 games. Arizona won eight of its last eleven road games.

-- Orioles won ten of their last thirteen games.
-- Tampa Bay, Texas both won four of their last five games.
-- Angels won eight of their last nine games.
-- Mariners won 11 of their last 14 home games.

Cold Teams
-- Marlins lost six of their last eight games.
-- Cubs lost their last six games, allowing 43 runs.
-- Colorado lost three of its last four games.
-- Astros lost 16 of their last 19 games.
-- Cardinals lost six of their last nine games.
-- San Francisco lost four of its last five home games. Dodgers lost ten of their last sixteen games.

-- Bronx lost six of its last eight games.
-- Boston lost eight of its last nine games. Blue Jays lost four of five,
-- Minnesota lost 16 of its last 22 games. Indians lost 17 of last 21.
-- Royals/White Sox both lost five of their last seven games.
-- Detroit lost 11 of its last 16 road games.
-- A's lost their last three games, allowing 21 runs.

Totals
-- Eight of last ten Washington games went over the total.
-- Four of Cubs' last five games went over the total.
-- 14 of last 18 Colorado games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in Houston's last eight games.
-- 13 of Mets' last 18 games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight Milwaukee games went over.
-- Last four Arizona games went over the total.
-- Over is 9-2-1 in Giants' last twelve games. Five of last seven Dodger games stayed under the total.

-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Bronx games.
-- Three of last four Toronto games went over total.
-- Over is 9-4-2 in last fifteen Texas games.
-- Five of last six Cleveland games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Chicago games stayed under the total. Over is 4-0-2 in Kansas City's last six games.
-- 13 of last 15 Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-1-1 in Oakland's last eight games.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Short Sheet

Friday, September 7

National League

Miami at Washington, 7:05 ET
Turner: 1-7 TSR pitching off a team win
Strasburg: Washington 37-19 SU after the bullpen allowed 0 runs

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh, 7:05 ET
Wood: Cubs 0-10 SU away off 5+ losses
Burnett: 9-1 TSR pitching off a team win

Colorado at Philadelphia, 7:05 ET
Francis: 9-3 TSR pitching off a team loss
Lee: 7-12 TSR as a favorite

Houston at Cincinnati, 7:10 ET
Harrell: Houston 5-25 SU as a road underdog of +150 to +200
Bailey: 21-8 TSR pitching off a team loss

Atlanta at NY Mets, 7:10 ET
Maholm: Atlanta 16-4 SU off a win by 1 run
Niese: 5-14 TSR at home in the second half of the season

Milwaukee at St. Louis, 8:15 ET
Gallardo: Milwaukee 5-15 SU away after scoring 2 runs or less
Lohse: St. Louis 31-16 SU off a loss by 4+ runs

Arizona at San Diego, 10:05 ET MLB
Skaggs: Arizona 4-17 SU away revenging 2+ losses as a home favorite
Cashner: San Diego 14-6 Over on Fridays

LA Dodgers at San Francisco, 10:15 ET MLB
Beckett: Dodgers 11-2 SU away playing with triple-revenge
Lincecum: 0-7 TSR as a home favorite of -125 or less


American League

NY Yankees at Baltimore, 7:05 ET
Hughes: Yankees 23-8 SU off 4+ road games
Chen: 8-1 Under vs. division opponents

Toronto at Boston, 7:10 ET
Alvarez: Toronto 20-12 SU away off 5+ home games
Doubront: Boston 8-24 SU in September

Texas at Tampa Bay, 7:10 ET
Holland: 23-8 TSR in the second half of the season
Hellickson: 2-8 TSR as a home favorite of -150 or less

Cleveland at Minnesota, 8:10 ET
Gomez: Cleveland 2-11 SU away off 3+ Unders
Hendriks: Minnesota 11-4 SU off 6+ division games

Kansas City at Chicago White Sox, 8:10 ET
Mendoza: 12-4 TSR vs. division opponents
Liriano: White Sox 6-17 SU revenging 4+ losses

Detroit at LA Angels, 10:05 ET
Scherzer: Detroit 20-5 SU off a division win by 6+ runs
Santana: Angels 5-10 SU at home off BB wins

Oakland at Seattle, 10:10 ET
Griffin: Oakland 19-5 SU after losing 3 of their last 4 games
Hernandez: Seattle 10-2 Over playing with rest

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/06/12 5-*5-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
09/05/12 9-*5-*2 64.29% +*1985 Detail
09/04/12 17-*9-*3 65.38% +*5270 Detail
09/03/12 17-*11-*0 60.71% +*3655 Detail
09/02/12 18-*11-*1 62.07% +*3840 Detail
09/01/12 14-*13-*2 51.85% -*735 Detail

Totals 80-*54-*8 59.70% +13915

Friday, September 7

Game Score Status Pick Amount

NY Yankees - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore -105 500
Baltimore - Over 9 500

Miami - 7:05 PM ET Miami +233 500
Washington - Under 7.5 500

Colorado - 7:05 PM ET Colorado +187 500
Philadelphia - Over 7.5 500

Chi. Cubs - 7:05 PM ET Chi. Cubs +175 500
Pittsburgh - Over 7.5 500

Toronto - 7:10 PM ET Boston -145 500
Boston - Over 10 500

Texas - 7:10 PM ET Texas +108 500
Tampa Bay - Over 8.5 500

Atlanta - 7:10 PM ET Atlanta -108 500
NY Mets - Under 7.5 500

Houston - 7:10 PM ET Cincinnati -205 500
Cincinnati - Under 8.5 500

Kansas City - 8:10 PM ET Kansas City +150 500
Chi. White Sox - Under 8.5 500

Cleveland - 8:10 PM ET Minnesota -128 500
Minnesota - Over 9 500

Milwaukee - 8:15 PM ET St. Louis -138 500
St. Louis - Over 7.5 500

Detroit - 10:05 PM ET LA Angels +101 500
LA Angels - Over 8 500

Arizona - 10:05 PM ET San Diego -116 500
San Diego - Over 7 500

Oakland - 10:10 PM ET Seattle -135 500
Seattle - Under 6 500

LA Dodgers - 10:15 PM ET San Francisco -115 500
San Francisco - Over 7 500