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**StarDust Bum** · 09-06-2012, 12:31 PM

Orioles Begin 4-Game Home Series With Yankees

No, that’s not a mistake in the daily MLB standings. The Baltimore Orioles really have pulled abreast of the New York Yankees in the AL East race.

In trying to explain these developments, we are compelled to borrow the title from the recent book released by the very attractive political pundit Monica Crowley, "What the (Bleep) Just Happened?"

We’ll try to make sense of it all in just a moment. For the time being, please note that the O’s and Yankees get together for a very crucial four-game set at Camden Yards beginning on Thursday night. The pitching matchup in the opener pits New York’s young David Phelps against the Birds’ Jason Hammel, off the DL and making his first start since July 13 but previously one of several recycled arms who have performed beyond the call of duty for manager Buck Showalter.

A quick check of the Don Best MLB odds screen notes that Phelps has been posted as a $1.15 favorite at Las Vegas sports books, with the take-back on Hammel at +105. The early total is nine, shaded to the ‘under’ at -115. Early Run Line prices have the Yanks at +135 minus the extra run and the O’s at -155 plus the extra run.

First pitch is scheduled at 7:05 p.m. (ET) at Oriole Park, which means there’s a good chance the game will be completed by the time President Obama makes his acceptance speech at the Democratic Convention at Charlotte a few hours later.

Now, what the bleep has happened in the AL East?

Baltimore’s latest surge, and the Yankees’ recent fade, both rate as surprises, although the Orioles’ ascent has caught a lot of observers off guard. The Birds seemed to be ready to fade out of contention just after the All-Star break, destined for their 15th straight losing season since 1997, as Showalter’s overworked bullpen gave hints of cracking at the seams as the starting pitchers had mostly faltered since a quick break the first two months of the season.

The O’s, however, caught their second wind in late July and entered Wednesday’s game at Toronto having won 30 of their last 45 games. Included in that uptick was taking two of three last weekend at Yankee Stadium to confirm Baltimore’s intention of staying in the playoff chase.

Baltimore has also won seven of the last 10 meetings vs. the Bronx Bombers this season after losing the first four against the Yanks in April. Baltimore is an astounding 24-6 in one-run games, including a staggering 13 wins in a row, although in their four wins previous to Wednesday’s game at Toronto, the O’s had outscored their foes (the Yankees and Blue Jays) a combined 30-4. A recent hot streak by free-swinging 3B Mark Reynolds, who had five homers in six games into Wednesday at Toronto, has helped fuel the most-recent surge.

Remarkably, the Birds are still at -19 in run differential for the season despite their recent winning margins.

As for Thursday’s starter Hammel, he returns to big league action for the first time since mid-July after going on the shelf for seven weeks due to arthroscopic knee surgery. Those knee issues had caused Hammel to struggle in his four outings prior to going on the DL but the O’s had won 11 of his previous 14 starts.

Interestingly, however, two of those losing starts came against the Yankees, including a shaky outing on May 14 when Hammel allowed five runs (four earned) on seven hits in just five innings of an eventual 8-5 Baltimore defeat.

Note that Hammel has had problems vs. the Yankees throughout his career, winning just one of seven previous starts and posting a 6.75 ERA in the process.

Meanwhile, the Yankees need to find some traction in a hurry or risk missing out on the playoffs for the first time since 2008. It took just 47 days for New York to surrender all of a 10-game lead it built up over the Orioles in late July, and now Joe Girardi’s club not only has to concern itself with the division race but also has to worry about the AL wild card picture after being pulled into that whirlpool along with the surging Rays, Tigers, White Sox, A’s and Angels.

The Yanks, with considerable postseason experience, still like their chances in a sprint to the wire, but they entered Wednesday’s game at Tampa Bay having lost five of six. The offense has been culpable in the recent skid as New York managed six hits or fewer in five straight games for the first time since a similar punchless stretch in 1990.

Girardi, however, will be crossing his fingers regarding starter Phelps, the former Notre Dame star who has had a mostly encouraging debut in his rookie campaign and fared well for a while when promoted into the starting rotation but has been wobbling lately, allowing 10 earned runs in 17 2/3 IP over his last three starts (5.09 ERA).

Phelps has seen work vs. the Orioles on four different occasions this season covering 9 2/3 IP, with a 2.79 ERA. Only once, however, has he started against them, a shaky 4 2/3 IP stint last Saturday when allowing three hits and six walks while surrendering three runs. He left the game with the Yankees trailing but was spared a defeat when Girardi’s club rallied for a 4-3 win, the only success for New York in last weekend’s series in The Bronx.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-06-2012, 12:33 PM

Diamond Trends - Thursday

September 6, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Cubs are 0-11 since April 17, 2012 as a 140+ dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Royals are 0-11-2 OU since May 19, 2011 as a home dog when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1100 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Royals are 6-0 since April 25, 2012 when Luke Hochevar starts after the team lost his last two starts for a net profit of $835.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Braves are 1-11 OU since June 26, 2006 with a total under 10 after a game where they allowed no more than two hits and used more than one pitcher.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Orioles are 9-0 since April 28, 2012 after a loss in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base in a night game for a net profit of $1095.

-- The Braves are 6-0 since May 30, 2012 after a one run win and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $658.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-06-2012, 12:35 PM

Yankees visit O's for key 4-game set Thursday

NEW YORK YANKEES (77-59)

at BALTIMORE ORIOLES (76-60)

First pitch: Thursday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Baltimore -110, New York +100, Total: 9

Sitting just one game back in the AL East, the Orioles will host the division-leading Yankees for a four-game set starting Thursday night.

Baltimore enter this game red-hot, as winners of nine of its past 12 games, including taking two of three from the Yankees just a week ago. For the O’s, Jason Hammel takes the mound for the first time since July 13 (knee) with a 3.54 ERA and 1.24 WHIP this season. He has earned a loss in four consecutive starts, however, with a 7.78 ERA and opponents hitting .317 off of him in that span. He faces David Phelps, who is 0-1 with a 5.09 ERA in his past three starts. He has just seven starts this season compared to 19 relief appearances, but has thrived in the rotation with a 3.78 ERA and 36 K’s in 35.2 innings. He does not work deep into games, averaging just 5.1 innings per start (4.2 on the rod), but that should be just fine with the Yankee bullpen that has a 2.87 road ERA this year. Though the absence of slugger Mark Teixeira (calf) will be felt, given New York’s historical dominance of the Orioles, last weekend’s performance feels like a fluke. New York is 16-7 (.696) at Baltimore over the past three years, including 4-1 in 2012. Overall, they are 33-17 against the Orioles in the last three seasons. As slight underdogs, play on NEW YORK to win this one.

This pair of three-star FoxSheets trends also favor the Yankees:

Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (N.Y. YANKEES) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA<=4.20) (AL), with an on-base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games. (48-22 since 1997.) (68.6%, +28.3 units. Rating = 3*).

Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (N.Y. YANKEES) - with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities, in September games. (108-70 over the last 5 seasons.) (60.7%, +55.1 units. Rating = 3*).

New York has had one of the best bullpens in baseball this year, earning 44 saves in 54 chances (82%) and compiling an 18-15 record. In Phelps lone career start against the Orioles a week ago, he could not find the strike zone, walking six in 4.2 innings, eventually yielding thee earned runs in a 4-3 victory. That was, however, the only game in the series New York won. While the Yankees have let their division lead slip by losing 10 of their past 15 games, they should be able to pounce on a starter in his first time back from the DL.

Despite his lengthy DL stint, Hammel has already faced the Yankees twice this year, with the Yankees winning both of those games. He has an 0-2 record in his past three starts versus the Yankees dating back to 2008. In his career, Hammel is 1-3 (team 2-5) with a 6.06 ERA and 1.57 WHIP against the Bombers. So, he’ll need some offensive support in this one and his team will look to replicate last week’s games against the Yanks when they averaged 5.7 runs per game, hitting six long balls. Hammel will also receive support in the form of his team’s filthy bullpen that has a 2.99 ERA and 1.22 WHIP this year.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-06-2012, 12:37 PM

MLB
Dunkel

NY Yankees at Baltimore
The Yankees look to take advantage of a Baltimore team that is 0-4 in Jason Hammel's last 4 starts. New York is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-105). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 6

Game 901-902: Colorado at Atlanta (12:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chacin) 15.931; Atlanta (Hudson) 15.450
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+170); Over

Game 903-904: Milwaukee at Miami (12:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Estrada) 14.238; Miami (Johnson) 15.079
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Miami (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-125); Under

Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Germano) 13.723; Washington (Zimmermann) 16.093
Dunkel Line: Washington by 2 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-230); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-230); Under

Game 907-908: NY Yankees at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Phelps) 15.577; Baltimore (Hammel) 15.241
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-105); Over

Game 909-910: Texas at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Feldman) 15.521; Kansas City (Hochevar) 15.203
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-135); Under

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, September 6

Hot pitchers
-- Hudson is 4-1, 2.84 in his last five home starts. Chacin is 2-1, 1.50 since he came off the DL.
-- Milwaukee won last four Estrada starts (2-0, 2.00 in last three).

-- None in AL. Check out our NFL writeups on the NFL page.

Cold pitchers
-- JJohnson is 0-4, 3.94 in his last five starts.
-- Zimmerman is 0-2, 7.92 in his last four starts. Germano is 0-3, 10.43 in his last three starts.

-- Hammel is 0-4, 7.78 in his last four starts, last of which was July 13. Phelps is 0-1, 5.09 in his last three outings.
-- Hochevar lost his last two starts, allowing 13 runs in 9.2 IP. Feldman is 0-5, 6.99 in his last five starts.

Hot Teams
-- Colorado won 11 of its last 17 games. Braves won three of four.
-- Brewers won 13 of their last 16 games.
-- Washington won seven of its last eight games.

-- Orioles won nine of their last twelve games.
-- Every Week 1 NFL game is analyzed on our NFL page.
-- Rangers won 13 of their last 18 games. Royals won 11 of last 16 at home.

Cold Teams
-- Marlins lost ten of their last thirteen games.
-- Cubs are 6-14 in their last twenty games.

-- Bronx Bombers lost 12 of their last 18 games.

Totals
-- 13 of last 17 Colorado games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 8-2-1 in Miami's last eleven games.
-- Six of last nine Washington games went over the total.

-- Nine of last twelve Bronx games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 4-0-1 in Kansas City's last five games.

MLB

Thursday, September 6

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Trend Report
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12:10 PM
COLORADO vs. ATLANTA
Colorado is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games when playing at home against Colorado
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Colorado

12:40 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games on the road
Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Miami is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games

7:05 PM
NY YANKEES vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of NY Yankees's last 15 games when playing Baltimore
NY Yankees are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Baltimore is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing NY Yankees

7:05 PM
CHI CUBS vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Chi Cubs are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games on the road
Washington is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 9 games

8:10 PM
TEXAS vs. KANSAS CITY
Texas is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
Texas is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Kansas City is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games at home

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MLB

Thursday, September 6

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Thursday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
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STREAKING

Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado Rockies (2-4, 4.85)

Chacin allowed one run over seven innings and picked up the win Saturday against the Padres. The righty has been impressive over his last three starts, allowing just three runs over 18 innings. He has a tough road start opposite Tim Hudson and the Braves next.

Marco Estrada, Milwaukee Brewers (2-5, 3.85)

Estrada allowed one run on four hits and struck out 10 over seven innings, but was left with a no-decision against the Pirates last time out. The right-hander has been brilliant over his last three starts, allowing just one earned run over his last 18 innings pitched. He toes the rubber in Miami against the Marlins on Thursday.

SLUMPING

Scott Feldman, Texas Rangers (6-11, 5.01)

Feldman surrendered four runs over six innings and was tabbed with the loss in his last outing against the Indians. The righty has taken the loss in each of his last five starts and looks to turn things around against the Royals, a team he has a 1.46 ERA against in two starts this season.

Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals (9-8, 3.01)

Zimmermann was rocked for eight runs over 3 2/3 innings and did not factor in the decision Saturday against the Cardinals. His ERA jumped from 2.63 to 3.01 following Saturday’s breakdown and the right-hander has failed to pick up a win in his last four starts. He draws the Cubs on Thursday

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