The Bum's Tuesday's MLB Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Hot & Not

September 3, 2012

The 2012 baseball season has entered the month of September which means teams across the league have expanded their rosters as they look to make one final push towards the postseason. The following is a look back at the teams that excelled and stunk it up for their wagering supporters with a look ahead to the upcoming week.

Money-Makers

Oakland A's (7-0, $700): After rattling off a perfect 7-0 record last week, the upstart A's are now the best bet in all of baseball ($2,881) and are the leaders in the American League Wild Card race with only a month remaining in the regular season. That said, manager Bob Melvin's squad has taken advantage of a very weak schedule of late with the Tampa Bay Rays being the only plus-500 team faced in their last six series played. The month of September will hardly be as kind with just two of their final nine series set to go against losing ball clubs.

On The Docket: Oakland's grueling schedule opens up this week with a crucial series set to go against the Angels at home, and then Josh Reddick and his teammates will have to travel to Safeco Field to battle a Mariners outfit that's won 16 of their L/19 in front of the hometown faithful; the A's check in 19-18 ($660) versus the AL West to date.

Baltimore Orioles (5-2, $421): Hot on the trail of the Wild Card leading A's are manager Buck Showalter's Orioles, who've proven to have staying power in the race for the postseason. The O's enter this week off a fantastic showing that saw them take three of four at home from the then AL Central leading Chicago White Sox, and then follow it up with a series win in the Bronx. In doing so, they clawed to within two-games of the Yankees in the AL East standings and are now the rightful owners of the play-in Wild Card slot.

On The Docket: Baltimore will be tested this week starting in Toronto where it will look to improve upon the 3-7 record they've churned out in their L/10 visits to the Rogers Centre. If they pass that test, they could possibly overtake the Yankees in the AL East with the current division leaders paying Camden Yards a four-game visit; the Orioles have played .571 ball versus divisional opposition on the year ($1610).

Cincinnati Reds (5-1, $353): Owners of the best record in all of baseball, Dusty Baker's Redlegs continue to mow down their opposition. After dropping their first home series since the beginning of June to the Cardinals, the current NL Central leaders went into the desert and busted out the brooms on the Diamondbacks, and then closed the six-game road trip out with a series win in Houston. Each of Cincy's next nine games will come in the friendly confines of the Great American Ballpark, and it's highly possible that All-Star first baseman Joey Votto will return to the everyday line-up this week!

On The Docket: The Reds will look to build upon the NL's best home record (42-24, $1036) against the Phillies and Astros starting Labor Day Monday. Philly's been a thorn in the Reds side in recent years, but they've taken nine of 12 from the Astros in the 2012 season.

Honorable Mentions: New York Mets (5-1, $502), Milwaukee Brewers (6-1, $452), Toronto Blue Jays (4-3, $413), San Francisco Giants (5-1, $318), Los Angeles Angels (5-1, $316), Washington Nationals (4-2, $118), Texas Rangers (4-2, $110)

Money-Burners

New York Yankees (2-4, -$636): The Yankees have been able to skate by for a bulk of the regular season even though the roster has simply been decimated by the injury bug. A tip of the cap must go out to Joe Girardi and his staff for getting the most out of their daily makeshift line-ups, but their once healthy lead atop the division is now in jeopardy of getting completely wiped out! In dropping four of six at home last week, New York now finds itself in a dire situation with each of its next 10 games to be played away from Yankee Stadium where it's won 35 of 64 road games ($232).

On The Docket: The club would do itself a major solid if it could go into Tampa Bay and hand the Rays back-to-back home series defeats, but it will get real interesting after that with a trip to Camden Yards where they'll battle an Orioles squad currently just two-games back; the Bronx Bombers have played to a 26-23 record against divisional opposition to date (-$730).

Chicago White Sox (1-6, $522): Just last week, the White Sox were feeling great about themselves having just swept the Yankees and Mariners at home. However, that euphoric felling was quickly forgotten after manager Robin Ventura's squad dropped three of four in Baltimore, and then got the brooms busted out on them in Motown for the second time this season; Chicago's now won just four of its 14 overall clashes with the Tigers. Because of the lackluster effort, the Palehose now sit tied atop the AL Central with Detroit but far from hold the tiebreaker should it come into play at the end of the year.

On The Docket: The club will return home and look to get healthy against the AL Central rival Twins and Royals before once again squaring off against the Detroit Tigers in what could turn out to be the most crucial series of their 2012 campaign; Chicago's 38-26 ($504) at U.S. Cellular Field, but has only played to an even 25-25 (-$410) versus divisional opponents.

Boston Red Sox (1-6, -$500): With the BoSox more or less waving the white flag two weeks ago after shipping Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, and Carl Crawford to the Dodgers, it came as no surprise to see this team completely fall on its face over the course of the last week. Dustin Pedroia and his mates tallied just one win through seven tries which moved the squad to a bankroll bursting 9-22 their L/31 overall match-ups (-$1,583). Now the absolute worst bet in the American League (-$2487), one has to wonder if the Bobby Valentine experiment will make it into year two.

On The Docket: The Red Sox will invade Seattle having dropped each of the first six games of their current nine-game road trip which dropped them to 30-35 (-$612) overall away from Fenway Park. Boston hasn't won a series on the road since late July!

Dishonorable Mentions: Cleveland Indians (1-6, -$457), Houston Astros (1-5,-$355), St. Louis Cardinals (2-5, -$330), Miami Marlins (1-4, -$321), Atlanta Braves (2-4, -$269), Arizona Diamondbacks (2-5, -$226), Chicago Cubs (2-5, -$190), Pittsburgh Pirates (2-4, -$180), Tampa Bay Rays (3-4, -$132), Minnesota Twins (3-4, -$129)

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Tuesday

September 4, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Brewers are 0-9 since April 13, 2012 when playing a night game on the road after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $953 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The White Sox are 11-0 OU since April 08, 2011 as a 140+ favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $1100 when playing the over.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Astros are 0-14 since June 16, 2011 when Jordan Lyles starts when he is off a start in which their team scored first and lost for a net profit of $1400 when playing against.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Braves are 12-0 (3.8 rpg) since September 2007 when they got more than eight innings from their starter last game. 4-0 this season.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Nationals are 0-6 since April 19, 2012 when Edwin Jackson starts as a favorite after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $732 when playing against.

-- The Giants are 8-0 since May 14, 2012 when Ryan Vogelsong starts as a favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $800

[StarDust Bum]

Rays try to gain more ground on Yankees Tuesday

NEW YORK YANKEES (76-58)

at TAMPA BAY RAYS (74-61)


First pitch: Tuesday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Tampa Bay -125, New York +115, Total: 8½

With three teams separated by 2½ games in the AL East, the Rays will try to inch closer to the Yankees on Tuesday, one day beating them 4-3.

The first-place Yankees enter this game with significant questions in their lineup as Robinson Cano (hip) is questionable for action while Mark Teixeira remains sidelined with a calf injury. Alex Cobb takes the hill for the Rays to battle the depleted New York lineup, sporting a 4.39 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 8-8 record in 2012. He is much better at home, however, where he has a 3.44 ERA. Cobb has also been the beneficiary of strong run support lately, with the Rays winning his past six starts, a span in which he has a 3.38 ERA. He faces Freddy Garcia, who has not made it out of the fifth inning in his past two starts, giving him a 5.66 ERA and 1.48 WHIP as a starter in 2012. And the Rays are surprisingly small favorites here, considering their domination of the Yankees at home this season (6-1) and their 17-8 mark (.680) over the past three seasons. Take TAMPA BAY to win this one.

This rare four-star FoxSheets trend favors the Rays:

Play On - All favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (TAMPA BAY) - hot hitting team - batting .333 or better over their last 3 games, in September games. (56-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.2%, +37.2 units. Rating = 4*).

With Cano and Teixeira all possibly out, the Yankees will need Alex Rodriguez to step up, returning for action in the first game of the series after missing over a month. While Garcia has struggled mightily in 2012, he will be happy to see the Rays, against whom he is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA in his past three starts. In his career, he owns a 9-2 mark (team 11-6) versus Tampa Bay with a 3.33 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Considering he averages just 5.1 innings per start this year, a lot of this game will fall on the Yankees bullpen that has an impressive 2.96 road ERA this year.

Cobb has started against the Yankees twice in his career, pitching respectably each time for a 3.46 ERA and 1.00 WHIP despite the Rays not pulling out either one of those games. Like Garcia, Cobb also does not go deep into games, averaging 5.8 innings per start. However, the Tampa Bay bullpen has been absolutely filthy at home with a 2.18 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, converting on 23 of 27 (85%) save opportunities. On the season, they have 43 saves. And with the Rays the winner of three straight, Cobb will be riding a hot team against a weak lineup. The Yankees, on the other hand, have lost four of their past five contests, shrinking their division lead over Baltimore to just one game.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, September 4

Hot pitchers
-- Rusin allowed one run in five IP in his first start, at Milwaukee. Jackson has a 2.57 RA in his last three starts.
-- Kendrick is 4-0, 1.23 in his last four starts.
-- Harvey is 2-0, 1.80 in his last three starts.
-- Kershaw is 5-2, 2.06 in his last seven starts. Stults is 4-0, 1.97 in his last five starts.
-- Kennedy is 2-0, 0.73 in his last two road starts.

-- Britton is 3-0, 1.25 in his last three starts.
-- Guthrie is 2-0, 1.23 in his last three home starts. Harrison is 2-2, 3.25 in his last four starts.
-- Greinke is 2-0, 1.84 in his last couple starts. Parker is 2-0, 3.79 in his last three outings.
-- Lester is 3-1, 3.21 in his last four starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Lyles is 1-2, 6.14 in his last four starts. Former Astro Rodriguez is 1-4, 4.31 in his last five starts.
-- Marcum is 0-1, 9.00 in two starts since coming off the DL. Leblanc is 1-2, 4.26 in his last three starts.
-- Latos is 1-1, 5.85 in his last three starts.
-- Pomeranz is 0-1, 7.41 in his last four starts. Hanson is 0-2, 6.89 in his last three outings.
-- JGarcia is 0-2, 5.59 in his last three starts.
-- Vogelsong is 2-2, 9.00 in his last four starts.

-- Villanueva is 1-4, 3.41 in his last six starts.
-- Masterson is 1-2, 8.82 in his last three starts. Porcello is 0-4, 5.09 in his last four starts.
-- FGarcia is 1-2, 5.14 in his last five road starts. Cobb has a 6.61 RA in his last three starts.
-- Diamond is 0-1, 4.70 in his last four starts. Quintana is 1-2, 4.98 in his last seven starts.
-- Beavan is 2-2, 4.60 in his last five starts.

Hot Teams
-- Washington won five of its last six games.
-- Phillies won eight of their last 11 games. Reds won six of their last nine.
-- Colorado won 10 of its last 15 games.
-- Brewers won 11 of their last 14 games.
-- Mets won seven of their last nine games.
-- Giants won 13 of their last 17 games.
-- Padres won 10 of their last 14 games.

-- Detroit won eight of its last ten home games.
-- Orioles won eight of their last ten games.
-- Rangers won 12 of their last 16 games. Royals won 10 of last 14 at home.
-- A's won 14 of their last 17 games. Angels won 10 of their last 12 games.
-- Mariners won 13 of their last 18 games.

Cold Teams
-- Cubs are 6-12 in their last eighteen games.
-- Braves are 6-10 in their last sixteen games.
-- Marlins lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- Astros lost 14 of their last 17 games. Pirates lost 10 of last 13 games; all three wins were shutouts.
-- Cardinals lost five of their last seven games.
-- Arizona lost nine of its last eleven games.
-- Dodgers are 8-10 in their last 18 games.

-- Indians lost 16 of their last 18 games.
-- Toronto lost eight of its last eleven home games.
-- Bronx Bombers lost 11 of their last 16 games. Tampa Bay lost six of its last nine games.
-- Minnesota lost 15 of its last 20 games. White Sox lost five of last seven.
-- Boston lost eleven of its last thirteen road games.

Totals
-- Five of last seven Washington games went over the total.
-- Over is 11-5-3 in Cincinnati's last nineteen games.
-- 11 of last 15 Colorado games stayed under.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in Miami's last nine games.
-- Five of last six Pittsburgh home games stayed under.
-- Over is 9-2-1 in last twelve Cardinal games.
-- Under is 9-3-1 in Arizona's last thirteen games.
-- Under is 7-3-1 in San Diego's last eleven games.

-- Ten of last thirteen Cleveland games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight games at Rogers Centre.
-- Eight of last ten Bronx games stayed under the total.
-- 13 of last 21 Kansas City games stayed under the total.
-- Last six Oakland games went over the total; under is 20-10-1 in the last 31 Angel games.
-- Under is 13-5-3 in last 21 Seattle games.
-- Under is 8-2-2 in last twelve White Sox games.

Umpires
Vin Scully said during the Dodger game Monday night that MLB didn't want umpires travelling for day games on Monday, so umpire crews are changing cities Monday night/Tuesday, instead of the usual Sunday night/Monday.

Apologize for the inconvenience, but I'm not sure which umps are going to be where Tuesday and I don't want to give you bad info.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Short Sheet

Tuesday, September 4

National League

Chicago Cubs at Washington, 7:05 ET
Rusin: Cubs 3-18 SU away off 3+ losses
Jackson: Washington 18-6 SU off BB wins by 2 runs or less

Houston at Pittsburgh, 7:05 ET
Lyles: Houston 5-21 SU away vs. division opponents
Rodriguez: Pittsburgh 12-3 SU at home after scoring 1 or 0 runs

Milwaukee at Miami, 7:10 ET
Marcum: Milwaukee 8-18 SU away in the second half of the season
LeBlanc: Miami 13-4 SU at home off 5+ home games

Philadelphia at Cincinnati, 7:10 ET
Kendrick: Philadelphia 3-10 SU after winning 4 of their last 5 games
Latos: Cincinnati 13-1 SU at home revenging a loss as a home favorite

Colorado at Atlanta, 7:10 ET
Pomeranz: Colorado 21-11 Under as an underdog of +150 or higher
Hanson: 13-4 TSR pitching off a team win

NY Mets at St. Louis, 8:15 ET
Harvey: Mets 9-2 SU off 4+ games scoring and allowing 5 runs or less
Garcia: 4-10 TSR in all starts this season

San Diego at LA Dodgers, 10:10 ET ESPN
Stults: San Diego 4-18 SU off BB road division losses
Kershaw: 21-7 TSR in the second half of the season

Arizona at San Francisco, 10:15 ET
Kennedy: Arizona 6-21 SU after the bullpen allowed 5+ runs
Vogelsong: 12-2 TSR in night games


American League

Baltimore at Toronto, 7:05 ET
Britton: 11-1 TSR pitching off BB team wins
Villanueva: Toronto 17-4 Over at home after scoring 1 or 0 runs

Cleveland at Detroit, 7:05 ET
Masterson: Cleveland 6-20 SU after losing 15+ of their lsat 20 games
Porcello: Detroit 47-14 SU as a favorite of -175 to -250

NY Yankees at Tampa Bay, 7:10 ET ESPN
Garcia: 37-16 TSR away with a total of 8 to 8.5 runs
Cobb: Tampa Bay 12-20 SU as a home favorite of -150 or less

Minnesota at Chicago White Sox, 8:10 ET
Diamond: Minnesota 15-6 Under away vs. left-handed starters
Quintana: White Sox 17-3 SU at home with a total of 9 to 9.5 runs

Texas at Kansas City, 8:10 ET
Harrison: 23-10 TSR in road games
Guthrie: Kansas City 3-14 SU off 6+ home games

LA Angels at Oakland, 10:05 ET
Greinke: 7-17 TSR away pitching off a team win
Parker: Oakland 22-7 SU after winning 4 of their last 5 games

Boston at Seattle, 10:10 ET
Lester: Boston 7-23 SU vs. AL West opponents
Beavan: 10-2 TSR pitching off a team win

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Tuesday, September 4

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Diamondbacks at Giants: What bettors need to know
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Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants (-121, 7)

It is beginning to feel a lot like 2010 for the San Francisco Giants, who stand 4 1/2 games ahead of second-place Los Angeles in the National League West.

The Giants won the 2010 World Series after a season filled with dramatic finishes, and they opened their three-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday with a thrilling 9-8 win in 10 innings.

San Francisco has won 13 of its last 17 games to move a season-high 19 games over .500. Diamondbacks closer J.J. Putz has blown two straight saves after converting 19 consecutive opportunities. He’ll likely be rested Tuesday after appearing in four of Arizona’s last five games.

While the Giants rallied to win the series opener, their middle relievers struggled again. Late-inning relievers such as Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez have been sharp, but Brad Penny, Guillermo Mota and George Kontos have each struggled in recent weeks. The trio combined to give up three runs on five hits in two innings Tuesday in relief of Barry Zito, who has failed to protect an early lead in two straight starts.

The Diamondbacks are 10 1/2 behind the Giants and looking toward next season, but they had to be encouraged by Monday’s offensive production. Arizona had 14 hits and scored more than four runs in a game for the first time since Aug. 21.

TV: 10:15 p.m. ET, FS Arizona, CS Bay Area (San Francisco)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Diamondbacks RH Ian Kennedy (12-11, 4.27 ERA) vs. Giants RH Ryan Vogelsong (12-7, 3.02)

Kennedy rebounded from a poor start against San Diego with a strong outing against the Dodgers on Thursday, when he pitched 6 1/3 scoreless innings. He is 6-2 with a 2.01 ERA in career starts against the Giants, including a 2-0 record with a 2.51 ERA in two starts this season. In six road games against San Francisco, Kennedy is 3-1 with 1.94 ERA.

Vogelsong went 4-2 with a 6.32 ERA in six August starts and gave up four runs over six innings Thursday against the Astros. He’s gone 2-2 with a 2.35 ERA in 11 career games covering 46 innings against the Diamondbacks, and gave up one run over seven frames against Arizona on May 29.

TRENDS

*Giants are 7-0 in their last seven Tuesday games.
*Giants are 8-1 in Vogelsong’s last nine starts as a home favorite.
*Diamondbacks are 6-0 in Kennedys last six starts vs. Giants.
*Over is 7-0 in Giants last seven games as a home favorite.

UMPIRE TRENDS- Greg Gibson

*Home team is 5-0 in Gibson’s last five games behind home plate.
*Under is 5-1-1 in Gibson’s last seven games behind home plate vs. San Francisco.
*Under is 12-3 in Gibson’s last 15 Tuesday games behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS

1. Giants SS Brandon Crawford broke out of a 5-for-29 slump with three hits Tuesday.

2. Diamondbacks CF Chris Young left Monday’s game in the eighth inning with a right quad injury after running to first base and is listed as day-to-day.

3. Arizona RHP David Hernandez streak of 12 straight scoreless games ended Tuesday when he gave up two runs in the eighth.

[StarDust Bum]

Sept. MLB Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/03/12 17-*11-*0 60.71% +*3655 Detail
09/02/12 18-*11-*1 62.07% +*3840 Detail
09/01/12 14-*13-*2 51.85% -*735 Detail

Totals 49-*35-*3 58.33% +6760


Tuesday, September 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chi. Cubs - 7:05 PM ET Washington -205 500
Washington -

Cleveland - 7:05 PM ET Cleveland +192 500
Detroit - Under 9.5 500

Houston - 7:05 PM ET Houston +196 500
Pittsburgh - Under 8 500

Baltimore - 7:07 PM ET Baltimore -103 500
Toronto - Under 8.5 500

NY Yankees - 7:10 PM ET NY Yankees +120 500
Tampa Bay - Under 8.5 500

Colorado - 7:10 PM ET Colorado +173 500
Atlanta - Under 8.5 500

Milwaukee - 7:10 PM ET Miami +113 500
Miami - Over 8.5 500

Philadelphia - 7:10 PM ET Philadelphia +164 500
Cincinnati - Under 8 500

Minnesota - 8:10 PM ET Minnesota +150 500
Chi. White Sox - Under 9 500

Texas - 8:10 PM ET Texas -135 500
Kansas City - Under 9 500

NY Mets - 8:15 PM ET NY Mets +141 500
St. Louis - Under 8 500

LA Angels - 10:05 PM ET LA Angels -119 500
Oakland - Under 7.5 500

Boston - 10:10 PM ET Boston -135 500
Seattle - Under 7 500

San Diego - 10:10 PM ET San Diego +219 500
LA Dodgers - Over 6.5 500

Arizona - 10:15 PM ET San Francisco -125 500
San Francisco - Over 7 500