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Diamond Trends - Monday

September 3, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Yankees are 12-0 since April 09, 2011 when playing a day game after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $1270.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Tigers are 0-11-1 OU since May 13, 2011 when Justin Verlander starts as a 140+ favorite when the bullpen has allowed at least one run for two straight games for a net profit of $1100 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Braves are 15-0 since June 03, 2010 when Kris Medlen starts after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $1585.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Marlins are 3-21 since August 2010 in day games after a loss where they left more on base as a t eam than their opponent. 3-7 this season.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Giants are 6-0 since May 13, 2012 when Barry Zito starts after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start for a net profit of $755.

-- The Reds are 10-0 since April 11, 2012 when Johnny Cueto starts when the start time is earlier than 4:00 PM local time for a net profit of $1060.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Betting Notes

September 3, 2012

Books cashing Diamonds


Football may have taken center stage over the weekend, relegating baseball to its inevitable position of being second banana once again -- even though its best drama has yet to happen, but during the month of August bettors proved that they still love betting baseball. A few Las Vegas sports books reported their baseball handle was up over the same month in 2011.

The strangest thing about the books being up in handle is that the win percentages were up as well. Last August was an awful month of baseball for the books when we saw a few key teams like the Brewers, Phillies, Red Sox, Rangers and Yankees win almost every day. When bettors are winning regularly, they always up their wager and bet more often which increases handle in a churning process.

With the same amount of weekends as last August and not many popular teams on hot streaks, the handle has still risen. Maybe it’s a sign of the times that people have money to spend again. The first weekend of college football exemplified that point great with larger handle than the same weekend last year.

The teams on the hot streaks heading into August have been teams that aren’t very popular with the public. The Oakland A’s keep winning -- a nine-game win streak through Sunday, but bettors haven’t warmed up to them yet feeling that their streak will end soon. Same goes for the San Diego Padres, who had won 10 of 11 games heading into Saturday. The common bettor is skeptical of teams like the Padres who have been perennial losers playing in home park their hitters reportedly hate to hit in.

Teams the public love to bet on like the Yankees have lost eight of their last 12 and are in danger of not even making the playoffs if their pitching doesn’t get better. And now, a staple in the Yankees arsenal -- hitting, has even become a problem. Public favorites from the past like the Red Sox and Phillies are in much worse shape and have been written off by most bettors in daily wagers. But the bettors are still firing away.

Overall, it’s been a good baseball season for the sports books, which is never an expectant. The goal for most sports book directors is to get by June, July and August with as little damage in baseball as possible as they await the massive audience of the football nation, which is always a proven winner in the fall months.

Outside of the Astros and Cubs, the rest of the teams have made things difficult by going in hot and cold streaks throughout the year, but never gaining any real steam or momentum like we saw last season. We’ll see how September goes, but chances are it will be much of the same parity we’ve seen the last few months.

Rich Get Richer

Maybe it’s great scouting or just being lucky, but the Braves always seem to find themselves with some of the best young pitchers in baseball. Kris Medlen had pitched long relief in 38 games for the Braves this season and was part of one of the best bullpens in baseball. When injuries were mounting with the starting staff, they gave him a shot and now he’s running away with the opportunity.

The Braves have won all six of his starts with Medlen getting the win in five of the games, but the most impressive thing is how he is getting it done. He’s been dominant and has shown pinpoint control with only five walks against 38 strikeouts. Through Sunday’s games, he has allowed only three runs in his six starts. That’s one run allowed in each in his first three starts and no runs allowed in his last three. He starts at home on Monday against the Rockies and then on the road versus the Mets this weekend.

[StarDust Bum]

White Sox look to end 4-game skid Monday


MINNESOTA TWINS (55-79)

at CHICAGO WHITE SOX (72-61)


First pitch: Monday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -155, Minnesota +145, Total: 9

The slumping White Sox are happy to return home after a miserable 1-6 road trip, when they host a three-game set with lowly Minnesota starting Monday night.

Chicago has scored a total of 10 runs during a four-game losing skid, and is now tied with Detroit for the AL Central lead. The Sox will call on 24-year-old Hector Santiago to stop the bleeding, but the left-hander will be making his first career start on Monday night. Minnesota, which began its current road trip by taking two out of three in Kansas City, will counter with right-hander Samuel Deduno, who is making just his 11th career start on Monday. However, Deduno twirled a masterpiece versus Seattle his last time out, throwing seven shutout innings and allowing just two hits and zero walks with nine strikeouts. Considering the Twins are 14-10 at U.S. Cellular Field in the past three seasons, the pick here is heavy underdog MINNESOTA to add to Chicago’s woes with the upset victory.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Twins:

Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (MINNESOTA) - with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities, in September games. (103-67 over the last 5 seasons.) (60.6%, +52.7 units. Rating = 3*).

Deduno (5-2, 3.72 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) has led his ballclub to a 7-3 record in his 10 starts. However, Deduno has had a difficult time locating the strike zone on the road this year, issuing 22 walks and just 13 K’s in 32.2 innings away from home, where he is 2-2 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. And before his nine-strikeout explosion against the Mariners, Deduno had totaled just two strikeouts in his two previous starts, allowing nine runs on 16 hits and seven walks in just 11 innings of work. Due to his wildness, Deduno averages just 5.8 innings per start this year, but he can’t bank on his bullpen bailing him out. Minnesota relievers carry a poor 3.69 ERA this season, but they have converted an impressive 22 saves in 26 chances (85%) this year. The Twins may have to play this game without their best power hitter, as OF Josh Willingham (33 HR, 96 RBI) is questionable with a strained hamstring after sitting out of Sunday’s game.

Santiago has pitched five relief innings against the Twins in his career, allowing just one run on three hits. Although he began this season as the team’s closer, Chicago sent him down to Triple-A Charlotte recently to acclimate him to the starting role. He adjusted just fine in those three starts, throwing 14.2 scoreless innings with 13 strikeouts and a 1.02 WHIP. Santiago may not be asked to throw more than five innings on Monday though, which leaves this game in the hands of a subpar bullpen carrying a 3.75 ERA and 17 blown saves this year. Another aspect working against Chicago is that DH Adam Dunn is likely to sit out his third straight game because of a strained oblique. Dunn leads the majors with 38 home runs, and has a team-best 88 RBI. The Sox certainly need his bat to help improve upon their 2-for-27 clip with runners in scoring position during the three-game sweep in Detroit. The good news for the White Sox is that they’ve had the Twins number this year, winning nine of the 12 meetings, including five straight at home by a combined score of 43-18. They are a stellar 21-5 at home since late June and have scored 6.1 runs per game with 38 HR in their past 18 games at U.S. Cellular Field.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, September 3

Hot pitchers
-- Cueto is 3-0, 1.93 in his last four starts.
-- Atlanta won Medlen's last 17 starts (5-0, 0.67 in six starts this year, with no runs allowed in his last 28 IP). Rockies won four of last five Chatwood starts (3-1, 4.70).
-- Fiers is 2-0, 2.57 in his last couple starts. Nolasco is 2-1, 3.33 in his last four outings.
-- McHugh threw seven shutout innings in his MLB debut last week.
-- Werner allowed two runs in six IP in both his MLB starts (1-1).

-- ASanchez is 1-1, 1.98 in his last couple starts.
-- Happ is 3-0, 3.75 in his last four starts.
-- Shields is 4-1, 2.22 in his last six starts. Bronx won five of Sabathia's last six road starts, but he has a 5.00 RA in his last five starts overall.
-- BChen is 2-0, 2.25 in his last three starts. Darvish is 2-1, 2.61 in his last three starts.
-- Milone is 2-0, 2.37 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Samardzija is 1-4, 3.99 in his last six starts. Detwiler is 2-2, 5.40 in his last four outings.
-- Cloyd allowed allowed three runs in six IP in losing his first start.
-- EGonzalez is 6-5, 3.84 in 15 minor league starts this year; he's started 41 big league games (14-25, 5.90 career record), last of which was in 2009. Locke was 0-3, 6.48 in four MLB starts LY; he was 10-5, 2.48 in 24 AAA starts in '12.
-- Kelly is 2-5, 5.80 in his last seven starts.
-- Blanton is 1-3, 7.89 in his last four starts.
-- Corbin is 1-2, 5.60 in his last three starts. Zito has a 5.95 RA in his last five starts, but Giants won his last five outings, scoring 32 runs.

-- Indians are 0-6 when Kluber starts (0-3, 7.28).
-- Saunders is 1-5, 7.64 in his last six starts.
-- Wilson is 1-2, 9.37 in his last six starts.
-- Buchholz is 1-1, 6.20 in his last three starts. Vargas is 1-2, 5.12 in his last five starts.
-- Deduno is 0-2, 7.80 in his last three road starts. Santiago has a 3.91 ERA in 36 games this year (48.1 IP); he threw 14.2 scoreless IP in three AAA starts.

Hot Teams
-- Washington won four of its last five games, scoring 39 runs.
-- Phillies won seven of their last ten games. Reds won six of their last eight.
-- Colorado won 10 of its last 14 games.
-- Brewers won 11 of their last 13 games.
-- Mets won seven of their last eight games.
-- Giants won 12 of their last 16 games.
-- Padres won 10 of their last 13 games.

-- Detroit won eight of its last nine home games.
-- Orioles won seven of their last nine games.
-- Rangers won 11 of their last 15 games. Royals won 10 of last 13 at home.
-- A's won 14 of their last 16 games. Angels won nine of their last 11 games.
-- Mariners won 12 of their last 17 games.

Cold Teams
-- Cubs are 6-11 in their last seventeen games.
-- Braves lost ten of their last fifteen games.
-- Marlins lost eight of their last ten games.
-- Astros lost 14 of their last 16 games. Pirates lost nine of last 12 games; all three wins were shutouts.
-- Cardinals lost five of their last six games.
-- Arizona lost eight of its last ten games.
-- Dodgers are 7-10 in their last 17 games.

-- Indians lost 16 of their last 17 games.
-- Toronto lost seven of its last ten home games.
-- Bronx Bombers lost 10 of their last 15 games. Tampa Bay lost six of its last eight games.
-- Minnesota lost 14 of its last 19 games. White Sox lost five of their last six.
-- Boston lost ten of its last twelve road games.

Totals
-- Five of last six Washington games went over the total.
-- Over is 11-4-3 in Cincinnati's last eighteen games.
-- Ten of last fourteen Colorado games stayed under.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in Miami's last eight games.
-- Four of last five Pittsburgh home games stayed under.
-- Over is 8-2-1 in last eleven Cardinal games.
-- Under is 9-2-1 in Arizona's last twelve games.
-- Under is 6-3-1 in San Diego's last ten games.

-- Nine of last twelve Cleveland games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 4-2-1 in last seven games at Rogers Centre.
-- Seven of last nine Bronx games stayed under the total.
-- 13 of last 20 Kansas City games stayed under the total.
-- Last five Oakland games went over the total; under is 20-9-1 in last 30 Angel games.
-- Under is 12-5-3 in last 20 Seattle games.
-- Under is 7-2-2 in last eleven White Sox games.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Short Sheet

Monday, September 3

National League

Chicago Cubs at Washington, 1:05 ET
Samardzija: Cubs 5-21 SU away in day games
Detwiler: Washington 22-9 SU vs. NL Central opponents

Philadelphia at Cincinnati, 1:10 ET
Cloyd: Philadelphia 5-16 SU off a loss by 1 run
Cueto: 13-0 TSR in day games

Colorado at Atlanta, 1:10 ET
Chatwood: Colorado 2-12 SU off a combined score of 17+ runs
Medlen: 20-1 TSR in his last 21 starts

Milwaukee at Miami, 1:10 ET
Fiers: Milwaukee 1-10 SU away after allowing 8+ runs
Nolasco: Miami 15-5 Under off 3+ losses

Houston at Pittsburgh, 1:35 ET
Gonzalez: Houston 10-31 SU off a loss by 2 runs or less
Locke: Pittsburgh 6-1 SU at home vs. Houston

NY Mets at St. Louis, 2:15 ET
McHugh: Mets 7-21 SU after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 games
Kelly: St. Louis 38-16 SU at home after losing 2 of their last 3 games

Arizona at Houston, 4:05 ET
Corbin: Arizona 11-3 SU away off BB losses
Zito: 19-6 Over at home on Mondays

San Diego at LA Dodgers, 8:10 ET MLB
Werner: San Diego 4-17 SU off BB division road losses
Blanton: 25-10 Over as a favorite

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Short Sheet

Monday, September 3

American League

Cleveland at Detroit, 1:05 ET
Kluber: Cleveland 5-20 SU after losing 15+ of their last 20 games
Sanchez: Detroit 19-4 SU at home after allowing 2 runs or less

Baltimore at Toronto, 1:05 ET MLB
Saunders: Baltimore 8-3 SU away off a win by 4+ runs
Happ: Toronto 27-45 SU off a loss

NY Yankees at Tampa Bay, 1:10 ET MLB
Sabathia: Yankees 14-4 SU away in day games
Shields: Tampa Bay 13-4 Under at home vs. left-handed starters

Texas at Kansas City, 2:10 ET
Darvish: Texas 28-7 SU as a road favorite of -150 to -175
Chen: Kansas City 3-13 SU off 6+ home games

LA Angels at Oakland, 4:05 ET
Wilson: Angels 12-25 SU off BB games allowing 2 runs or less
Milone: 11-2 TSR at home with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs

Boston at Seattle, 4:10 ET
Buchholz: Boston 6-17 SU off a loss by 4+ runs
Vargas: 9-2 Under in home games

Minnesota at Chicago White Sox, 7:10 ET MLB
Deduno: Minnesota 12-23 SU off BB Overs
Santiago: White Sox 19-5 SU at home in the second half of the season

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/02/12 18-*11-*1 62.07% +*3840 Detail
09/01/12 14-*13-*2 51.85% -*735 Detail

Totals 32-*24-*3 57.14% +3105


MLB

Monday, September 3

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chi. Cubs - 1:05 PM ET Chi. Cubs +161 500
Washington - Under 7.5 500

Cleveland - 1:05 PM ET Cleveland +207 500
Detroit - Over 9.5 500

Baltimore - 1:07 PM ET Baltimore -101 500
Toronto - Over 8.5 500

NY Yankees - 1:10 PM ET Tampa Bay -102 500
Tampa Bay - Over 7.5 500

Colorado - 1:10 PM ET Colorado +210 500
Atlanta - Under 7.5 500

Milwaukee - 1:10 PM ET Milwaukee -127 500
Miami - Over 8 500

Philadelphia - 1:10 PM ET Philadelphia +190 500
Cincinnati - Under 8 500

Texas - 2:10 PM ET Kansas City +146 500
Kansas City - Over 8.5 500

NY Mets - 2:15 PM ET St. Louis -150 500
St. Louis - Over 8.5 500

LA Angels - 4:05 PM ET Oakland +101 500
Oakland - Under 8 500

Arizona - 4:05 PM ET Arizona +101 500
San Francisco - Over 8 500

Boston - 4:10 PM ET Seattle +101 500
Seattle - Under 7.5 500

Minnesota - 7:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox -152 500
Chi. White Sox - Under 9 500

San Diego - 8:10 PM ET San Diego +155 500
LA Dodgers - Under 7.5 500