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  • Cnotes Saturday's MLB Best Bets !

    Yankees Host Orioles In Saturday Matinee

    UPDATE, Aug. 31: The Yankees have shifted their rotation for the weekend and David Phelps will start Saturday's game in place of Freddy Garcia. Check back at for updated odds and matchup information.

    Raise your hand if you thought the Baltimore Orioles would still be in the AL East and wild card races when the calendar turned to September.

    For a team that enters the final month of the season with a minus-44 run-differential to still be in playoff contention stretches credulity. But it’s true, which is why any list of American League Manager of the Year candidates has to include the Orioles’ Buck Showalter.

    Still, there’s almost five weeks to go in the regular season, and the Birds have plenty of work to do if they want to qualify for their first postseason berth (not to mention finishing over .500) in 15 years. This weekend’s series at Yankee Stadium against the Bronx Bombers could further validate the O’s as a playoff threat or reveal some cracks in the foundation that could signal a slide in the final month of the campaign.

    The middle game of the weekend set goes Saturday afternoon at Yankee Stadium, when Showalter sends Wei-Yin Chen to the mound to duel the Yankees’ Freddy Garcia. First pitch on Saturday will be at 1:05 p.m. (ET). Satellite TV watchers have their choice between Michael Kay’s commentary on YES or Gary Thorne’s description on MASN to follow along.

    Early numbers on the Don Best MLB odds screen show New York at -150 with a 9½-run total ('under -120).

    Baltimore’s continuing involvement in the playoff chase is indeed one of the surprise storylines of the season. At various times, the O’s have looked ready to drop from contention, especially after Showalter was forced to overwork his bullpen in the first half of the season. The starting pitching rotation, which began the campaign very strongly, was wavering badly once the calendar hit June. And the Birds looked ready to fly south right after the All-Star break when the staff seemed about to crack at the seams.

    Remarkably, however, Showalter was able to steady the ship and Baltimore rediscovered an unlikely second wind. Entering this weekend’s set vs. the Yankees, the Birds had won 20 of their last 29 games to pull (along with another surprise package, Oakland) into one of the two AL wild card positions at the end of August.

    The O’s have also been uncanny in one-run games, having won 24 of 30 of those decisions entering this weekend, including 13 straight to set a franchise record. Baltimore, long a punching bag for the Yankees, has also taken five of the last seven meetings this season after losing the first four vs. Joe Girardi’s team back in April. New York hasn’t lost a season series vs. the Birds since 1997, going 13-0-1 in the years since.

    New York will be without injured sluggers Alex Rodriguez (hand) and Mark Teixeira (calf) for this series, with Steve Pearce getting a pair of starts this week. Pearce, a 1B/OF combo player who was traded from New York to Baltimore on June 2 and re-acquired by the Yankees from Houston on Monday, will likely face the Orioles for the first time.

    Derek Jeter, who leads the majors with 176 hits, is batting .438 in the season series while Curtis Granderson had homered five times entering Friday night’s clash. As for Rodriguez, he begins a rehab assignment at high-A Tampa this weekend and likely returns to the active big league roster next week.

    The Yankees also enter the weekend set without a lot of momentum, having lost six of their last nine, including two of three at home earlier this week vs. the recently-struggling Blue Jays. New York’s once seemingly-secure lead in the AL East has also been trimmed to just three games over the hard-charging Birds and 4.5 over Tampa Bay, still lurking just off the pace.

    Meanwhile, although the Baltimore pitching staff has held together throughout the summer, Showalter is getting some reinforcement, with veteran Randy Wolf signed to a deal just before the August 31 deadline for postseason eligibility.

    Showalter has also gotten more mileage out of Saturday’s starter Chen than he could have envisioned, as the Taiwanese import has steadied after some wobbly efforts at midseason. Off of another solid stint on Monday when allowing the White Sox just one earned run on four hits and striking out eight in six innings of work in an eventual 4-3 O’s win, Chen has allowed one or no earned runs in four of his last six starts.

    In Chen’s lone previous outing vs. the Yankees, he was similarly solid, allowing just two runs and five hits in seven innings of work when the Orioles scored a 5-2 win at Camden Yards on May 15.

    As for Saturday’s opposing starter Garcia, he’s been serviceable at best for Girardi, rarely pitching beyond the sixth inning in a series of unspectacular yet modestly effective outings since the All-Star break. Garcia posted a 4.23 ERA in his five August starts, with the Yankees winning on four of those occasions. In his last meeting vs. the Orioles, however, Garcia allowed three earned runs and nine hits over six innings in a 5-4 loss at Yankee Stadium on July 30.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  • #2
    Pitchers Report - September

    September 1, 2012

    Like our waistlines after a tasty Labor Day barbeque, MLB rosters have expanded to accommodate the final month of the season. And as College Football and the NFL crash onto the scene, MLB pitchers take the final spotlight in hopes of leading their teams on to the playoff trail. Which ones can we count on and which ones figure to crash-test dummies? Check it out.

    Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of September. On the flip side, we've also listed pitchers that struggle in September team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each September over the last three years. Enjoy…

    GOOD MONTH PITCHERS

    Bailey, Homer: 11-5
    The Cincinnati starter had great promise as youngster, but injuries and inconsistencies have often sidetracked him. As per usual, Bailey is like a Moen faucet, running hot or cold and after a brutal August, he will try and pitch like September's past.

    Blanton, Joe: 10-3
    Blanton won his first game in a Dodgers' uniform in late August, after four miserable outings. Blanton's "stuff" is not going to fool many batters (179 hits in 161.2 innings), instead he has to work the corners low and induce ground balls with runners on base to stay out of trouble. Despite being largely a No.4 or 5 starter, he's been clutch when it counted late in the season.

    Cahill, Trevor: 10-5
    The right-hander's specialty is having batters hit ground balls. In hitter-friendly Chase Field in Arizona, this has not worked out so well for the 24-year old. Cahill's home ERA is a lofty 5.33. Where this Diamondbacks pitcher should be a better bet this month is on the road, where his earned run average drops to 2.79.

    Cain, Matt: 10-3
    This San Francisco ace is a proven big-game pitcher and his record this month supports the accolades. With a tight race with the Dodgers presumed in September, Cain is chewing up right-hand hitters who are batting a dismal .188 against him.

    Garcia, Freddy: 9-4
    The former Seattle Mariners sensation gets by more in guile then skill at 35-years old. Nevertheless, for five or six innings, Garcia will empty his bucket and deliver quality starts when his team needs him the most at crunch time. With a runner on first base, only three times in 17 innings against Garcia has the opponent scored, for a nifty 1.59 ERA in this exact situation.

    Gonzalez, Gio: 12-4
    Washington would not be as far out front in the NL East without the excellent pitching of Gonzalez. The left-hander has not been as dominant the last month as we has earlier in the season, yet continues to get the job done. His unusual delivery continues to baffle batters on both sides of the dish, with righty's sporting a .213 batting average and lefty's slightly higher at .218.

    Halladay, Roy: 12-4
    Is Doc Halladay beginning headed towards a decline? We really will not know until next season, but there are signs the 35-year old Denver native is slowing. After averaging .88 strikeouts per inning over a four-year period from 2008 to 2011, Halladay's punch-out's rate is down 10 percent this season. Was it the injury, age or something else? Watch him closely this month.

    Lee, Cliff: 10-4
    Like the Phillies, it has been a lost season for Lee. He's been up and down like a Duncan yo-yo and his only three wins have come in his last 10 starts. Lee's problems are easy to pinpoint. When the lefty has two runners on base, his ERA is almost 15.00! Because Lee's command has been off, opponents are batting a robust .362 against him when ahead in the count. History says he will throw better in the final month of the season, stay tuned.

    Oswalt, Roy: 10-5
    Oswalt is another hurler in his mid-30's, still trying to hang on with diminishing skills. Oswalt has been forced back into the Texas rotation because of injuries and is unlikely to give more than 5+ innings because of a balky back. Like several of the veteran pitchers listed above, he knows how to win when needed and cannot be discounted just yet.

    Porcello, Rick: 11-4
    If Detroit is going to catch the White Sox or the other American League wild card clubs, having Porcello as a .500 pitcher will not cut it. The slender 6'5 chucker needs a more harmonious two-seam fastball that induces ground balls, not line drives. Time for him to lift his game.

    Price, David: 13-5
    One can fully expect this top-shelf left-hander to throw extremely well like he has all season. Even being roughed up a bit in Texas in his previous outing, Price's ERA is a razor sharp 1.95 in his last 10 starts. At the Trop this season, the Rays ace has 1.66 ERA.

    Sabathia, CC: 11-5
    Mr. Consistency among all pitchers in baseball. Sabathia's record in 71 games over .500 since 2007 (108-37) and his WHIP has hardly varied at all in this time period, ranging from 1.14 to 1.23. Though the Yankees big man strikeouts are down from previous years, his ground ball-to-fly ball ratios are at a career high of 1.44-to-1. Anticipate the big lefty to be on his game like always.

    Verlander, Justin: 13-5
    The Tigers ace will not win another Cy Young, yet he will be a key component if Detroit returns to the postseason. The past suggests Verlander will do his part and though opposing batters have enjoyed more success against him then in 2011; their average is still not much above the Mendoza Line at .212.

    Wolf, Randy: 10-4
    Rumors continue to circulate this port-sider will end up in Baltimore for the playoff chase. The Orioles are attempting to look optimistically at Wolf's past, compared to his 3-10 mark this season. For Wolf to succeed in Baltimore or Milwaukee, he need greater sink on his tosses to right-handed batters, who are slugging a hefty .325 against him.

    BAD MONTH PITCHERS

    Latos, Mat: 4-8
    The trade for Latos has worked marvelously for Cincinnati, who was the first team to 80 wins this season. The big 6'6 right-hander will now be called upon to help the Reds finish with the best record in baseball in the final days of the season. Just in his fourth major league season, Latos has faltered late, however, he's never played with as talented a group.

    Sanchez, Anibal: 5-11
    After being pounded in his initial starts in MoTown, Sanchez has looked far more comfortable in a Detroit uniform his last couple of starts at the end of August. For the 28-year old Venezuelan to be at his best, he has to keep the low 90's fastball down in the zone, where it has more movement and tighten up his delivery for the hard slider. Sanchez will fall in love with his secondary pitches, which is what gets him into trouble.

    Billingsley, Chad: 5-10
    Dodgers CEO Stan Kasten said he "fears" that disabled starting pitcher Chad Billingsley could be lost for the season with an elbow injury, according to a Los Angeles Times report. Kasten's comment came less than a week after the club gave reporters a vague description of "elbow inflammation" as the reason for Billingsley's placement on the disabled list on August 25th after he underwent an MRI.

    Floyd, Gavin:3-9
    The White Sox placed Floyd on the 15-day disabled list with a right elbow flexor strain on August 27. He was previously on the DL from July 8-23, with right elbow tendinitis and his return is to be determined.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #3
      MLB
      Armadillo's Write-Up

      Saturday, September 1

      Hot pitchers
      -- Hudson is 2-0, 2.33 in his last three starts. Lee is 1-0, 2.63 in his last couple starts.
      -- Harrell is 3-3, 2.75 in his last nine starts.
      -- Lohse is 3-1, 1.42 in his last five starts.
      -- Estrada is 2-0, 2.45 in his last couple starts.
      -- Volquez is 2-0, 1.98 in his last couple starts. Chacin has a 1.64 RA in two starts since coming off the DL.

      -- WChen is 4-1, 4.19 in his last six starts.
      -- FHernandez won his last three starts, allowing one run in 25.2 IP. Santana is 2-1, 3.10 in his last three starts.
      -- Scherzer is 4-0, 1.33 in his last four starts. Liriano is 2-0, 3.12 in his last three starts.
      -- Griffin was 3-0, 2.70 in his last five starts before going on the DL.

      Cold pitchers
      -- Lincecum is 1-3, 4.57 in his last four starts. Germano is 1-3, 8.31 in his last four outings.
      -- Bailey is 0-2, 7.13 in his last three starts.
      -- Zimmerman is 0-2, 5.17 in his last three starts.
      -- Hefner is 1-3, 4.42 in his last six starts. JJohnson is 0-4, 4.88 in his last four outings.
      -- Burnett is 1-2, 7.03 in his last four starts.
      -- Beckett is 0-5, 7.17 in his last seven starts. Skaggs is 1-1, 3.65 in his first two big league starts.

      -- Niemann is 2-3, 4.41 in seven starts, last of which was May 14. Alvarez is 0-4, 8.88 in his last five starts.
      -- Phelps is 0-1, 4.85 in his last two starts.
      -- Feldman is 0-4, 7.25 in his last four starts. Gomez is 1-5, 9.60 in his last six starts, last of which was June 23.
      -- Hendriks is 0-6, 7.05 in his nine starts, but lost last start 1-0 to King Felix. De Vries is 1-3, 9.60 in his last four starts. Smith is 2-3, 5.40 in his last five outings. Hochevar is 0-3, 5.24 in his last five starts.
      -- Doubrant is 0-2, 7.01 in his last five starts.

      Hot Teams
      -- Giants won ten of their last fourteen games.
      -- Washington won its last three games, outscoring foes 26-5.
      -- Mets won five of their last six games.
      -- Phillies won six of their last eight games.
      -- Reds won five of their last six games.
      -- Brewers won nine of their last eleven games.
      -- Padres won 10 of their last 11 games. Colorado won eight of 12.

      -- Rangers won ten of their last thirteen games.
      -- Blue Jays won four of their last five games.
      -- Orioles won six of their last seven games.
      -- Detroit won six of its last seven home games.
      -- Royals won nine of their last eleven home games.
      -- Mariners won eleven of their last sixteen games. Angels won eight of their last ten games.
      -- Oakland won 13 of its last 15 games.

      Cold Teams
      -- Cubs are 6-9 in their last fifteen games.
      -- Cardinals scored one run in losing last four games.
      -- Marlins lost six of their last eight games.
      -- Braves lost nine of their last thirteen games.
      -- Astros lost 13 of their last 14 games.
      -- Pirates lost seven of last ten games; all three wins were shutouts.
      -- Arizona lost six of its last eight games. Dodgers lost 10 of their last 15.

      -- Indians lost 15 of their last 16 games.
      -- Tampa Bay lost six of its last seven games.
      -- Bronx is 5-9 in its last fourteen games.
      -- White Sox lost four of their last five games.
      -- Twins lost 16 of their last 20 games.
      -- Boston lost eight of its last ten road games.

      Totals
      -- Seven of Cubs' last ten games stayed under total.
      -- stl-wsh
      -- Over is 4-1-1 in Miami's last six games.
      -- Under is 6-2-1 in Philly's last nine games.
      -- Over is 11-3-2 in Cincinnati's last sixteen games.
      -- Nine of last fourteen Milwaukee games stayed under the total.
      -- Nine of last twelve Colorado games stayed under.
      -- Under is 8-1-1 in Arizona's last ten games.

      -- Six of last nine Texas games went over the total.
      -- tb-tor
      -- Six of last eight Bronx games stayed under the total.
      -- Under is 5-2-2 in last nine White Sox games.
      -- 12 of last 17 Kansas City games stayed under the total.
      -- bos-a's
      -- 19 of last 28 Angel games went over the total. Under is 11-5-2 in last 18 Seattle games.

      Umpires
      -- Phil-Atl-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Hernandez games.
      -- SF-Chi-- Underdogs are 14-8 in Iassogna's last 22 games.
      -- Cin-Hst-- Home team won Fletcher's last seven games.
      -- StL-Wsh-- Four of last five Bell games went over total.
      -- NY-Mia-- Last nine Meals games stayed under the total.
      -- Pitt-Mil-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Hudson games.
      -- SD-Col-- Favorites won 16 of last 18 Demuth games.
      -- Az-LA-- Favorites won six of last seven Carapazza games.

      -- TB-Tor-- 12 of 13 Baker games stayed under the total.
      -- Blt-NY-- Visiting team won 14 of 20 Estabrook games.
      -- LA-Sea-- Six of last seven Wolf games stayed under total.
      -- Chi-Det-- Last 12 Culbreth games stayed under the total.
      -- Tex-Clev-- Visiting team won seven of last nine Guccione games.
      -- Bos-A's-- Underdogs won five of last eight Cuzzi games.
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #4
        Early Games:

        Saturday, September 1

        Game Score Status Pick Amount

        Baltimore - 1:05 PM ET Baltimore +143 500
        NY Yankees - Under 9.5 500

        San Francisco - 1:05 PM ET San Francisco -142 500
        Chi. Cubs -

        Tampa Bay - 1:07 PM ET Tampa Bay -133 500
        Toronto - Over 9 500

        Philadelphia - 4:05 PM ET Philadelphia +104 500
        Atlanta - Under 7 500

        St. Louis - 4:05 PM ET Washington -115 500
        Washington - Over 7.5 500

        LA Angels - 4:05 PM ET Seattle -140 500
        Seattle - Over 7 500

        Minnesota - 4:10 PM ET Kansas City -132 500
        Kansas City - Under 9 500
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #5
          Evening Games:

          Chi. White Sox - 7:05 PM ET Detroit -149 500
          Detroit - Over 8.5 500

          Texas - 7:05 PM ET Texas -158 500
          Cleveland - Over 9.5 500

          Cincinnati - 7:05 PM ET Cincinnati -162 500
          Houston - Under 8 500

          NY Mets - 7:10 PM ET Miami -140 500
          Miami - Over 7.5 500

          Minnesota - 7:10 PM ET Minnesota +126 500
          Kansas City -

          Pittsburgh - 7:10 PM ET Milwaukee -121 500
          Milwaukee - Under 8 500

          San Diego - 8:10 PM ET San Diego +114 500
          Colorado - Over 10.5 500

          Boston - 9:05 PM ET Boston +157 500
          Oakland -

          Arizona - 9:10 PM ET Arizona +128 500
          LA Dodgers - Under 7.5 500
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment

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