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  • The Bum's Thursday's MLB Best Bets !

    Nationals Open Long Weekend Set With Cardinals

    For the first time in a good while, the ground looks to be shaking under the Washington Nationals. Slumping after what to this point has been a wildly-successful summer, Davey Johnson’s team is best-advised to stop the bleeding ASAP.

    And no one has to tell Thursday night’s opponent, the St. Louis Cardinals, how things can change in the playoff races come September.

    The Cards and Nats open a crucial four-game weekend set in D.C. on Thursday night, with postseason implications galore in the outcome. Scheduled starters for the first game of the set are Jaime Garcia for St. Louis and Edwin Jackson for Washington; the Don Best MLB odds screen notes early pricing on the game rates it a veritable toss-up, with the Nats priced at -110 and the Cards at even money at Las Vegas sports books, while the total is at eight shaded to the ‘over’ at -125.

    Meanwhile, early Run Line pricing notes the Cards -210 with the extra run, while the Nats can fetch a +175 laying a run. First pitch at Nationals Park will be 7:05 p.m. (ET); if planning to attend we suggest arriving early to beat the long lines at the several Ben’s Chili Bowls around the ballpark, where the famous chili half-smokes are served.

    Then, save room for a shake (we recommend the chocolate) in the later innings at the Shake Shack located in the open-air right field concourse.

    For those watching from elsewhere and not able to indulge in the many dining options at Nationals Park, the issues this weekend suddenly involve the once high-flying Nats, whose staff has started to wobble in recent weeks. Indeed, the fact Washington could count upon solid starting pitching has mostly enabled it to avoid the sorts of losing skids that threaten to undermine potential contenders. The Nationals were on a five-game losing streak (tied for their longest slump of the season) after Tuesday’s 9-0 loss at Miami.

    Moreover, nerves might be starting to fray, if reports of a recent shouting match between Johnson and GM Mike Rizzo are to be believed.

    But recent developments, including Stephen Strasburg getting hammered on Tuesday at Miami, are a bit troubling for manager Johnson. Thursday night’s starter Jackson has also been struggling in recent outings, reflected in his less-than-stellar 4.55 ERA in his last five appearances. Washington has also lost its last two and five of Jackson’s last eight starts, not providing much run support in the process the last two, generating a mere pair of runs total in losses last Friday vs. the Phils and August 18 vs. the Mets.

    Jackson’s 4.55 ERA also covers all of his August starts and rates as his least-effective month of the season to date. Of course, remember that Jackson was a member of St. Louis for the last half of the 2011 season when arriving in a trade deadline deal from the White Sox, and was a contributor to the Cards’ late-season charge to a World Series crown before leaving for D.C. in the offseason via free agency.

    Jackson has not pitched against the Redbirds since the 2010 season when working for the Diamondbacks.

    Manager Johnson has other worries at the moment, including his suddenly-impotent batting order that had scored only six runs in the five-game losing streak through Tuesday. The returns of SS Ian Desmond and OF Mike Morse to the lineup could not prevent that humbling 9-0 loss to the Marlins and their erratic starter Ricky Nolasco on Tuesday.

    Entering Wednesday’s game at Miami, the Nats had also seen their NL East lead over the Braves trimmed to just four games. Washington is also now locked in a virtual dead-heat with Cincinnati for the best record in the NL and the home-field edge throughout the playoffs which would accompany that honor. They swept the Cards in a 3-game set in DC a year ago.

    Working in the Nationals’ favor on Thursday night is the fact that St. Louis starter Garcia has been struggling himself lately, with the Cards losing his last four starts. Garcia has been hit hard in that stretch, posting a 6.55 ERA in those defeats.

    Garcia hasn’t faced the Nationals since last season; in his career he’s started three times vs. Washington, fashioning a 2-0 record and 1.65 ERA, although those were against lesser Nats editions.

    The Cardinals also enter this set concerned about the status of their catcher Yadier Molina, who had to exit Tuesday night’s loss in Pittsburgh after a brutal home-plate collision with the Pirates’ Josh Harrison. Suffering from back, neck and shoulder soreness, Molina might be expected to miss at least a few games, which could be an issue for St. Louis considering his defensive work and surprisingly-good hitting (.325 BA) this season.

    Mike Matheny’s club, however, has moved into the NL’s second wild-card position after mostly-positive efforts since the All-Star break. The Redbirds know all about stretch-drive pressure, too, having rallied from a 10½-game deficit on August 24 in last season’s wild card race before collaring the Braves and surpassing them on the final night of the regular season.

    And we all remember what happened thereafter.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  • #2
    Thursday, August 30

    Game Score Status Pick Amount

    Oakland - 12:05 PM ET Oakland -102 500
    Cleveland - Over 8.5 500

    Chi. White Sox - 12:35 PM ET Baltimore -106 500
    Baltimore - Under 9 500

    NY Mets - 1:05 PM ET NY Mets +102 500
    Philadelphia - Over 8 500

    Seattle - 1:10 PM ET Seattle +118 500
    Minnesota - Over 9 500

    Milwaukee - 2:20 PM ET Chi. Cubs +136 500
    Chi. Cubs - Over 11.5 500
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #3
      Diamond Trends - Thursday

      August 30, 2012

      SU TREND OF THE DAY:

      -- The Astros are 0-10 since April 13, 2012 when playing a night game as a 140+ dog after allowing 6+ runs in a night game for a net profit of $1000 when playing against.

      OU TREND OF THE DAY:

      -- The Royals are 0-10-1 OU since May 19, 2011 as a home dog when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1000 when playing the under.

      STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

      -- The Dodgers are 10-0 since May 13, 2011 when Clayton Kershaw starts as a 140+ favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $1000.

      MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

      -- The Diamondbacks are 0-25 (-3.3 rpg) in database history as a 180+ underdog vs a divisional opponent that is ahead of them in the standings.

      TODAY’S TRENDS:

      -- The Tigers are 7-0 since July 08, 2011 when Rick Porcello starts as a favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $700.

      -- The Giants are 7-0 since May 14, 2012 when Ryan Vogelsong starts as a favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $700.
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #4
        MLB
        Armadillo's Write-Up

        Thursday, August 30

        Series won-lost records are now below the daily writeup.......

        Hot pitchers
        -- Kendrick is 3-0, 0.83 in his last three starts. Niese is 2-1, 1.61 in his last three starts.
        -- Kershaw is 5-1, 1.94 in his last six starts.

        -- Parker is 1-0, 1.93 in his last couple starts. Masterson is 3-1, 4.26 in his last four starts.
        -- Quintana is 1-1, 3.08 in his last four starts.
        -- Moore is 4-0, 1.69 in his last six starts.
        -- Lester is 3-0, 2.25 in his last three starts.

        Cold pitchers
        -- Marcum allowed four runs in five IP in his first start since June 14. Raley is 1-2, 7.08 in four starts for the Cubs.
        -- JGarcia is 0-3, 6.55 in his last four starts. Jackson is 1-3, 4.55 in his last five outings.
        -- Vogelsong is 1-2, 10.50 in his last three starts. Lyles is 1-5, 7.72 in his last eight starts.
        -- Kennedy is 1-3, 7.59 in his last four starts.

        -- Britton is 1-1, 9.90 in his last four starts.
        -- Duensing is 1-3, 8.89 in his last five starts. Beavan is 1-2, 5.24 in his last four starts.
        -- Villanueva is 0-4, 4.06 in his last five starts.
        -- Porcello is 0-3, 5.50 in his last three starts. Guthrie is 0-0, 7.84 in his last couple starts.
        -- Greinke is 1-2, 5.40 in three home starts for the Angels.

        Hot Teams
        -- Mets won their last four games, allowing nine runs.
        -- Brewers won nine of their last thirteen games.
        -- Giants won nine of their last twelve games.

        -- Oakland won 11 of its last 13 games.
        -- White Sox won seven of their last nine games. Orioles won 12 of their last 16 home games.
        -- Royals won eight of their last nine home games.
        -- Mariners won ten of their last fourteen games.

        Cold Teams
        -- Phillies lost their last five home games with the Mets.
        -- Cardinals didn't score a run in losing last two games. Washington lost five of its last six games.
        -- Cubs lost nine of their last thirteen games.
        -- Astros lost 11 of their last 12 games.
        -- Arizona lost its last six games, outscored 33-13. Dodgers lost eight of their last thirteen games.

        -- Indians lost 13 of their last 14 games.
        -- Toronto lost 11 of its last 14 games. Tampa Bay lost four of its last five games.
        -- Twins lost 15 of their last 19 games.
        -- Detroit lost five of its last seven home games.
        -- Boston lost six of its last eight road games. Angels lost four of their last six home games.

        Totals
        -- Under is 5-1-1 in Philly's last seven games.
        -- Nine of last twelve Milwaukee games stayed under the total.
        -- Seven of last ten Washington games stayed under total.
        -- Five of last seven Houston games stayed under the total.
        -- Under is 6-1-1 in Arizona's last eight games.

        -- Six of last eight Oakland games stayed under the total.
        -- Under is 4-1-2 in last seven White Sox games.
        -- Under is 11-4-1 in last sixteen Seattle games.
        -- 11 of last 16 Kansas City games stayed under the total.
        -- Five of last six Tampa Bay road game went over the total.
        -- 18 of last 26 Angel games went over the total.

        Umpires
        -- NY-Phil-- Four of last five Bell games went over total.
        -- Mil-Chi-- Under is 15-8-1 in last 24 Nelson games.
        -- SF-Hst-- Under is 12-7 in last nineteen Everitt games.

        -- A's-Clev-- 22 of last 25 Emmel games (0 of last 2) went over.
        -- Chi-Blt-- Favorites won seven of last eight Runge games.
        -- Sea-Min-- Favorites won 11 of last 14 Danley games.
        -- Det-KC-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Gonzalez games.
        -- Bos-LA-- West's last four games behind plate all went over.

        2012 baseball series records

        thru 8/30
        Home Away Total
        Arizona 9-9-3 6-11-4 15-20-7
        Atlanta 10-7-4 12-6-3 22-13-7
        Cubs 11-10 3-14-4 14-24-4
        Cincinnati 13-6-2 11-6-4 24-12-6
        Colorado 8-11-3 4-15-1 12-26-4
        Houston 7-13-1 1-20 8-33-1
        Dodgers 11-9-1 10-10-1 21-20-2
        Miami 7-9-4 6-12-4 13-21-8
        Milwaukee 12-7-2 5-14-1 17-21-3
        Mets 8-12-1 8-12-1 16-24-2
        Philadelphia 8-11-3 10-8-2 18-19-5
        Pittsburgh 13-7-1 9-8-4 22-15-5
        St Louis 12-7-2 9-11-1 21-18-3
        San Diego 10-9-2 6-13-2 16-22-4
        San Francisco 12-5-4 12-7-2 24-12-6
        Washington 11-5-4 14-5-3 25-10-7
        Baltimore 10-9-2 13-6-1 23-15-3
        Boston 10-12 9-8-3 19-20-3
        White Sox 12-8-1 9-8-3 21-16-4
        Cleveland 7-11-3 8-12-1 15-23-4
        Detroit 12-6-3 7-12-2 19-18-5
        Kansas City 8-11-1 9-9-4 17-20-5
        Angels 12-6-3 7-12-2 19-18-5
        Minnesota 5-12-3 8-11-2 13-23-5
        Bronx 13-6-2 11-7-3 24-13-5
        A's 11-6-4 10-9-3 21-15-7
        Seattle 10-9-1 8-13-1 18-22-2
        Tampa Bay 9-9-3 11-9-1 20-18-4
        Texas 16-4-2 11-8-1 27-12-3
        Toronto 9-9-2 6-12-4 15-21-6
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #5
          MLB

          Thursday, August 30

          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Four pitchers hitting the wall down the home stretch
          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez has pitched almost 197 innings of baseball and isn’t showing any signs of slowing down.

          The former American League Cy Young winner has a 0.35 ERA in his last three starts, including the 23rd perfect game in major league history on August 15. Hernandez is known for eating up the innings and finishing the season strong.

          But, as baseball bettors know, arms like King Felix are few and far between. There are many pitchers climbing the pitch count as the calendar flips to September and appear to be running on fumes.

          Here are four pitchers who could hit the wall down the home stretch of the schedule:

          Jason Vargas, Seattle Mariners (13-9, 3.90 ERA, 184.2 IP)

          Vargas was just placed on waivers by the Mariners (they saw this one coming) and is expected to get gobbled up by a contender for the home stretch. He’s one of the best moneymaking arms in the American League (+6.82 units), but the southpaw was way off in his most recent offerings. Vargas was dinged for six earned runs on seven hits – three home runs – and lasted only four innings against the White Sox, then allowed five runs - two home runs - in 4 2-3 innings against the Twins. It will be interesting to see where the 37 year old ends up and if he has anything left in the tank.

          Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians (10-11, 4.60 ERA, 168.1 IP)

          Pitching in Cleveland would leave anyone sick and tired come the final month of the slate. Masterson, however, has been solid for the Tribe this year. The up-and-down season is beginning to wear on the right-hander, who has gone seven or more innings just once in his last six starts. Masterson looked good versus the Yankees in his last outing but was touched for seven earned runs in the previous start.

          C.J. Wilson, Los Angeles Angels (10-9, 3.86 ERA, 170.1 IP)

          Wilson hasn’t been able to stand the summer heat, posting a 1-3 record and an ERA just south of 8.00 in five August starts. Before Wednesday's win over the Red Sox, the Halos' hurler hadn't earned a “W” since late June and hemorrhaged 13 runs in the two starts before that. Wilson was hit in the hand by a come-backer earlier this month, so he may have an excuse.

          Chris Capuano, Los Angeles Dodgers (11-10, 3.58 ERA, 168.2 IP)

          Capuano could learn a thing or two from teammate Clayton Kershaw. While Kershaw is one of the best innings eaters in all of baseball, Capuano looks like he may be scraping the bottom of the barrel after a rough outing versus the Giants. The lefty has allowed 12 earned runs in his last 11 innings of work and fell to 2-6 since the All-Star break after an 8-4 loss to the Rockies Tuesday.
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • #6
            MLB
            Short Sheet

            Thursday, August 30

            National League

            NY Mets at Philadelphia, 1:05 ET
            Niese: Mets 12-2 SU on Thursdays
            Kendrick: Philadelphia 0-7 SU off a division loss by 1 run

            Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs, 2:20 ET
            Marcum: Milwaukee 10-1 Over off 6+ road games
            Raley: Cubs 6-21 SU in August

            St. Louis at Washington, 7:05 ET MLB
            Garcia: St. Louis 30-14 SU off a loss by 4+ runs
            Jackson: 8-17 TSR pitching on 5 or 6 days rest

            San Francisco at Houston, 8:05 ET
            Vogelsong: 11-2 TSR in night games
            Lyles: 4-19 TSR pitching off a team loss

            Arizona at LA Dodgers, 10:10 ET
            Kennedy: 19-4 TSR vs. division opponents
            Kershaw: Dodgers 6-13 SU revenging a loss as a home favorite


            American League

            Oakland at Cleveland, 12:05 ET
            Parker: Oakland 14-6 SU after winning 8+ of their last 10 games
            Masterson: Cleveland 4-17 SU after losing 15+ of their last 20 games

            (TC) Chicago White Sox at Baltimore, 12:35 ET
            Quintana: White Sox 25-8 SU with a total of 9 to 9.5 runs
            Britton: Baltimore 13-3 Under after scoring 1 or 0 runs

            Seattle at Minnesota, 1:10 ET
            Beavan: Seattle 15-35 SU as a road underdog of +125 or less
            Duensing: 18-4 TSR as a favorite

            Tampa Bay at Toronto, 7:05 ET MLB
            Moore: Tampa Bay 17-8 SU away in August
            Villanueva: Toronto 2-11 SU off 7+ road games

            Detroit at Kansas City, 8:10 ET
            Porcello: 11-1 TSR as a road favorite of -150 or less
            Guthrie: 11-1 Over as a home underdog of +125 or less

            Boston at LA Angels, 10:05 ET
            Lester: Boston 6-14 SU off a loss by 4+ runs
            Greinke: 16-1 TSR at home pitching off a team win

            (TC) = Time Change
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • #7
              MLB

              Thursday, August 30

              Game Score Status Pick Amount

              St. Louis - 7:05 PM ET St. Louis +103 500
              Washington - Under 8 500

              Tampa Bay - 7:07 PM ET Toronto +141 500
              Toronto - Over 8 500

              San Francisco - 8:05 PM ET San Francisco -172 500
              Houston - Under 8 500

              Detroit - 8:10 PM ET Kansas City +108 500
              Kansas City - Under 9 500

              Boston - 10:05 PM ET LA Angels -150 500
              LA Angels - Over 8 500

              Arizona - 10:10 PM ET Arizona +190 500
              LA Dodgers - Under 6.5 500
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment

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