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**StarDust Bum** · 08-28-2012, 01:47 PM

Diamond Trends - Tuesday

August 28, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Cubs are 12-0 since 2005 after April following games where they allowed at least five home runs.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Cubs are 0-10 OU since July 19, 2011 at home with a total of at least 7, when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher after playing in a night game for a net profit of $1000 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Brewers are 17-0 since June 24, 2010 when Yovani Gallardo starts as a favorite after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $1700.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Phillies are 10-0 (3.8 rpg) since September 2010 as a favorite on a four-game winning streak.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Braves are 14-0 since June 03, 2010 when Kris Medlen starts after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $1485.

-- The Reds are 7-0 since June 26, 2012 as a favorite after scoring 3 runs or less and winning for a net profit of $700.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-28-2012, 01:49 PM

Hot and Not

August 27, 2012

The final week of August is upon us, which means teams with playoff aspirations will continue leaving it all on the field over the next month in hopes of qualifying for the second season. Here's a look at the results over the course of the last week from both a winning and losing perspective while keeping an eye on the week ahead.

$$$-Makers

San Diego Padres (6-0, $837): The Padres were at it again this past week winning all six of their games against the playoff hopeful Pittsburgh Pirates and Arizona Diamondbacks. It certainly looks as if Manager Bud Black's squad is relishing playing the role of spoiler as they've gone a money-making 15-9 ($1010) and won five of their eight series played in the month of August. Now eight-games out of last place in the NL West, San Diego will hope to continue its upward ascension and build for next season while at the same time prevent all their opponents from enjoying the thrill of the second season.

On The Docket: Chase Headley and his teammates will look to throw a wrench in the Atlanta Braves postseason plans for three at Petco before traveling to Coors Field to put even more distance between themselves and the Rockies - San Diego's won each of its L/7 games versus +.500 opponents but is just 4-9 its L/13 versus NL East representatives.

Chicago White Sox (6-0, $601): The Palehose bounced back in style from that nightmarish series sweep at Kansas City by busting out the brooms on both the New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners last week. In doing so, Paul Konerko and his mates now hold a 2.5-game lead over the underachieving Detroit Tigers, but don't look for them to rest on their laurels as they've been in this position a number of times this season only to see the Tigers overtake them in the standings. Their race with Detroit for AL Central supremacy certainly looks as if it will go down to the wire!

On The Docket: Robin Ventura's troops have got a season shaping road trip ahead of them with four set to go at Camden Yards against the Baltimore Orioles before heading to Comerica Park to battle the Tigers in the division rivals second to last series of the regular season. Chicago is 32-24 ($1120) against winning teams but just 3-8 the L/11 times it was dogged by oddsmakers on the road.

St. Louis Cardinals (5-1, $407): Don't look now, but the defending World Series champs are making another one of their patented late season runs after winning all but one of their match-ups last week which included handing the Reds a home series loss for the first time in over two months. Now the rightful owners of the play-in wild card, the Redbirds have surpassed Pittsburgh in the NL Central standings and only sit six-games in back of the Reds and get to host the final meeting between the division rivals to close out the regular season.

On The Docket: The Cardinals get a chance to solidify themselves as a serious playoff contender this upcoming week with three in Pittsburgh followed by four in Washington against the Nationals. That said, Manager Mike Matheny's squad checks in a bankroll bursting 17-26 (-$1680) against +.500 opposition and sits a game under .500 themselves as visitors (-$318) overall.

Honorable Mentions: Milwaukee Brewers (5-1, $432), Detroit Tigers (5-1, $400), Oakland A's (4-2, $255), Philadelphia Phillies (5-2, $249), Texas Rangers (5-2, $95)

$$$-Burners

New York Mets (2-5, -$728): If not for getting the benefit of running up against a Houston squad marching a Triple-A line-up to the plate over the weekend, the Mets might still find themselves marred in an eight-game losing streak. David Wright's cooled off considerably at the plate, and because of it, New York has struggled mightily to put runs on the board. The team tallied three runs or less in every one of their games last week, and will hit the road averaging a paltry 1.9 runs per game over their L/10. With their limited starting pitching staff backed by a waffling bullpen, that's hardly a recipe for success.

On The Docket: A nine-game road trip kicks off in Philadelphia on Tuesday night followed with three in Miami; the Mets have lost six of their L/9 as visitors and have played .458 ball within the division on the year.

Arizona Diamondbacks (2-5, -$616): The Snakes went into last week's docket winners of four in a row and looked to have once again thrown their hat in the ring along with the Giants and Dodgers for division supremacy. Then they went out and split a four-game home series with the Marlins and then inconceivably got swept by the Padres even though they averaged being near -170 favorites in all three games! Because of the poor showing, the D'Backs are now seven-games out in the NL West and 6.5-games out of the play-in wild card slot.

On The Docket: We'll get a clearer picture as to if Arizona is to continue being a possible playoff contender with them set to battle the Reds, Dodgers, and Giants in their next three series; the latter two on the road. The Diamondbacks have however won 12 of their 21 ($230) overall tussles against winning teams in the second half of the season.

Pittsburgh Pirates (1-5, -$526): Now eight-games out in the NL Central and two-games out of a wild card spot, Manager Clint Hurdle's squad faces an extremely uphill battle if the franchise is to put an end to its playoff drought. Ever since the Buccos dropped a gut-wrenching 9-8 decision to the Padres at home back on August 10th, they've won just five of their L/15 overall played games. Pittsburgh jumped the shark last season after a bitter extra innings loss to the Braves, and with them following that same "MO" after a tough loss this season, you really have to question the mental make-up of both the coaching staff and roster. Pittsburgh looks to be a team that can keep it close, but still won't get a chance to smoke that victory cigar.

On The Docket: The Pirates will enter a crucial stretch to the remainder of their regular season schedule with a three-game home set with the streaking Cardinals. However, they won't have to face a +.500 team until they travel to Cincinnati to battle the Reds on September 10th; it's high time the Buccos made some hay!

Dishonorable Mentions: Toronto Blue Jays (0-5, -$506), Los Angeles Dodgers (2-4, -$338), Cleveland Indians (1-5, -$337), Tampa Bay Rays (3-3, -$302), Houston Astros (1-5,-$290), New York Yankees (2-4, -$284), Washington Nationals (2-4, -$222), Chicago Cubs (2-4, -$209 ), Boston Red Sox (2-4, -$203), Minnesota Twins (2-5, -$126)

**StarDust Bum** · 08-28-2012, 01:51 PM

Weekly Betting Notes

August 27, 2012

The massive trade the Dodgers struck with Boston to acquire Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Josh Beckett sent shockwaves through the baseball world and the deal immediately sent rapid changes at every sports book odds board in town.

"We had dropped the Dodgers from 12-to-1 down to 8-to-1 when we first started hearing about rumors the a deal might be made," said LVH Super Book assistant manager Jeff Sherman, "and then after it was confirmed we went down to 7-to-1 which is where they are right now."

When adjusting a teams future price down, to balance out the theoretic hold, the sports book has to raise the price on some other team and Sherman raised the price on the Red Sox.

"We raised Boston to 500-to-1," Sherman said with slight chuckle.

Who would have ever thought Boston would be sellers in the market. This was a team that was one of the favorites to win it all. This is a team we routinely see playing for something in September, but now they’re officially finished in August. The surrender flag has finally been flown at Fenway Park.

"The Red Sox had to do something because it was apparent early on this season that things weren’t going to be like the past," said Sherman. "They got stuck with some bad contracts and they weren‘t producing, so change was needed."

The trade unloaded $260 million in player salaries that the Dodgers didn’t even hesitate to blink at showing the ownership group that includes Magic Johnson and Stan Kasten weren’t fooling around when they said five months ago after taking control of the team that they wanted to win now.

The Dodgers aren’t messing around and are floating out some serious cash to prove it.

Not only have they signed Andre Ethier to a five-year $85 million extension, but they went out and traded for Hanley Ramirez taking on his $37 million, Shane Victorino’s $3 million rental for two months and taking on the likes of Joe Blanton and Brandon League. As it stands right now, the Dodgers are set to pay out $192 million in salaries for 2013.

Despite gaining all the new players, Sherman still doesn’t see the Dodgers as the team to beat in the National League.

"They’ve got their work cut out for them to make the playoffs. There are still a whole bunch of other teams vying for the same Wild Card spots that aren’t going to lay down. The Dodgers have been struggling. Getting swept last week by the Giants showed a lot of their weaknesses that I’m not sure Gonzalez, Crawford, or Beckett shore up. I think this sets them up great for 2013, but I‘m not sold on them this year."

The Dodgers and Giants meet up six more times this season, including the final three games of the season. Through Sunday, the Dodgers were a game-and-a-half behind the Braves and Cardinals and a half game up on the Pirates.

The Giants are currently 10-to-1 to win the World Series, odds that are based more on public perception rather than what the sports book actually thinks will happen. The Dodgers moving to 7-to-1 was based on current liability -- they were already one of the most popular future bets -- and the public’s new perception based on the trade.

We’ll soon know how this story ends, but it’s going to be one interesting read over the next five weeks. At least the Dodgers weren’t forced to take John Lackey in the deal.

CURRENT LVH SUPER BOOK ODDS
2012 WORLD SERIES

YANKEES 5/1
RANGERS 5/1
NATIONALS 6/1
REDS 7/1
DODGERS 7/1
GIANTS 10/1
RAYS 12/1
TIGERS 12/1
WHITE SOX 12/1
CARDINALS 15/1
ANGELS 15/1
BRAVES 15/1
ATHLETICS 25/1
PIRATES 30/1
ORIOLES 40/1
DIAMONDBACKS 100/1
BLUE JAYS 300/1
PHILLIES 300/1
RED SOX 500/1
MARINERS 500/1
BREWERS 2000/1
PADRES 3000/1
METS 3000/1
ROYALS 3000/1
INDIANS 5000/1
MARLINS 5000/1
CUBS 9999/1
TWINS 9999/1
ROCKIES 9999/1
ASTROS xxxx

2012 NATIONAL LEAGUE PENNANT

NATIONALS 11/4
REDS 3/1
DODGERS 3/1
GIANTS 5/1
BRAVES 15/2
CARDINALS 15/2
PIRATES 15/1
DIAMONDBACKS 50/1
PHILLIES 150/1
BREWERS 900/1
METS 1300/1
PADRES 1300/1
MARLINS 2000/1
ROCKIES 4000/1
CUBS 4000/1
ASTROS xxxx

2012 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT

YANKEES 12/5
RANGERS 12/5
RAYS 6/1
WHITE SOX 6/1
TIGERS 6/1
ANGELS 15/2
ATHLETICS 13/1
ORIOLES 20/1
RED SOX 250/1
MARINERS 250/1
ROYALS 1500/1
BLUE JAYS 1500/1
INDIANS 2500/1
TWINS 5000/1

**StarDust Bum** · 08-28-2012, 01:53 PM

Sale tries to cool down Orioles Tuesday

CHICAGO WHITE SOX (71-56)

at BALTIMORE ORIOLES (70-57)

First pitch: Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -140, Baltimore +130, Total: 8

Two 70-win teams will playoff hopes square off in the second game of a four-game set on Tuesday night when White Sox ace Chris Sale looks to even the series with the surging Orioles.

Baltimore won Monday’s game 4-3 and giving it four wins in five games against the White Sox this season. The O’s have now won six of eight, but the White Sox are also hot, winning six straight contests before Monday’s loss. Chicago still sits atop the AL Central and will look to regain its footing with its ace on the mound. Sale has a 2.66 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 15-4 record as a starter in 2012 with 149 strikeouts in 152 innings. He’s whiffed 29 batters in his past three outings, a span in which he is 2-1. On Tuesday, he faces Chris Tillman, who has a solid 3.71 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 2012, but is far worse at Camden Yards where he has a 4.56 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. And in Tillman’s last start against the White Sox last season, he didn’t even make it out of the third inning, when he allowed six earned runs while recording just eight outs. With their dominant ace on the mound, it’s surprising the Sox aren’t favored more in this one. Play on CHICAGO to even the series on Tuesday.

This FoxSheets trend also favors the White Sox:

CHICAGO WHITE SOX are 28-14 (66.7%, +14.6 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of its save opportunities this season. The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 6.0, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 2*).

Chicago’s six-game winning streak included a three-game sweep of the Yankees. That gives them seven wins in their past nine games against AL East foes. Sale has yet to face the Orioles in his career as a starter, but he has a 5.06 ERA in 5.1 career relief innings versus them. Even if he struggles, which seems unlikely given his dominance this season (Sox are 15-7 when he starts), he should have no dearth of run support, with the Chicago offense that has averaged 5.6 runs per game in its past seven contests. And going 6.9 innings per start this season, he won’t put too much of the game in the hands of Chicago’s bullpen that converts just 63.8% of its save opportunities in 2012, carrying a subpar 3.82 ERA.

Unlike the White Sox, the Orioles have excelled at finishing off games with an AL-high 44 saves in 56 chances (79%). Tillman may need to make use of that bullpen (3.04 ERA, 6th-best in majors), with an 8.21 ERA and 2.48 WHIP in two career starts against the White Sox. He’s also given up five home runs in his past three starts (6.35 ERA), which does not bode well against Chicago’s big boppers who are second in baseball with 170 long balls. At the same time, the O’s have excelled versus AL Central foes, winning 21 of 35 (.600) games this season.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-28-2012, 02:03 PM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, August 28

Hot pitchers
-- Westbrook is 6-1, 3.69 in his last seven starts.
-- Strasburg is 4-0, 1.50 in his last six starts.
-- Gallardo is 5-0, 2.02 in his last five starts.
-- Cain is 3-0, 1.61 in his last three starts.
-- Cueto is 7-1, 2.85 in his last nine starts. Miley is 5-3, 2.86 in last eight.
-- Medlen is 4-0, 0.83 in five starts this season. Werner won his first MLB start, allowing two runs in six IP.

-- McAllister is 1-0, 3.15 in his last three starts.
-- Sale is 3-1, 2.79 in his last four starts.
-- Tampa Bay won last five Shields starts (4-0, 2.39).
-- Verlander is 1-0,2.40 in his last four starts.
-- Iwakuma is 2-0, 2.29 in his last three starts.
-- Weaver is 10-2, 2.92 in his last dozen starts. Boston won last three Buchholz road starts (2-0, 2.25).

Cold pitchers
-- Young is 0-2, 5.82 in his last three starts. Worley is 0-3, 6.41 in his last four outings.
-- McDonald is 2-3, 7.71 in his last eight starts.
-- Nolasco is 1-6, 8.71 in his last nine starts.
-- Cubs lost Wood's last eight starts (0-7, 7.49).
-- Norris is 0-7, 6.49 in his last ten starts.
-- Capuano is 1-4, 5.26 in his last six starts. Chatwood is 1-1, 5.54 in his last three starts.

-- Milone is 1-2, 7.00 in his last three road starts.
-- Tillman is 1-2, 6.35 in his last three starts.
-- Romero is 0-3, 6.87 in his last three starts. Hughes is 1-3, 6.85 in his last four outings.
-- Darvish is 1-3, 7.11 in his last five starts.
-- Mendoza is 2-2, 4.01 in his last four starts.
-- Diamond is 1-2, 3.86 in his last five starts.

Hot Teams
-- Phillies won their last four games, allowing eight runs.
-- Cardinals won seven of their last nine games.
-- Brewers won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Colorado won 11 of its last 15 games.
-- Giants won seven of last ten games, but lost last two.
-- Cincinnati won 12 of its last 18 games.
-- San Diego won its last eight games, allowing 16 runs.

-- Oakland won nine of its last eleven games.
-- White Sox won six of their last seven games. Orioles won 11 of their last 14 home games.
-- Detroit won five of its last six games.
-- Rangers won eight of their last ten games.
-- Mariners won nine of their last twelve games.
-- Red Sox won three of their last four games.

Cold Teams
-- Mets lost six of their last eight games.
-- Pirates lost 13 of their last 18 games.
-- Marlins lost four of their last five games. Washington lost its last four games scoring six runs.
-- Cubs lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- Astros lost nine of their last ten games.
-- Dodgers lost seven of their last eleven games.
-- Arizona lost nine of its last twelve home games.
-- Braves lost seven of their last ten games.

-- Indians lost 11 of their last 12 games.
-- Toronto lost ten of its last twelve games. Bronx Bombers are 3-6 in their last nine games.
-- Royals lost four of their last five games.
-- Tampa Bay lost its last three games, outscored 15-11.
-- Twins lost 14 of their last 17 games.
-- Angels lost last four home games, outscored 37-14.

Totals
-- Under is 4-0-1 in Philly's last five games.
-- Four of last five Pittsburgh games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-3-1 in last ten Miami games.
-- Seven of last ten Milwaukee games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Houston games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Colorado games.
-- Ten of last thirteen Cincinnati games went over the total.
-- 12 of last 16 Atlanta games stayed under the total.

-- Last six Cleveland games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five White Sox games.
-- Six of last nine Bronx games stayed under the total.
-- Ten of last fourteen Kansas City games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Texas games went over the total.
-- Under is 10-3-1 in last fourteen Seattle games.
-- Under is 8-3 in Boston's last eleven road games.

Umpires
-- StL-Pitt-- Over is 6-0-1 in last seven Johnson games.
-- Mil-Chi-- Over is 12-8 in last twenty Guccione games.
-- LA-Col-- 12 of last 15 Joyce games went over total.
-- Cin-Az-- Six of last seven Porter games went over total.
-- Atl-SD-- Underdogs are 7-6 in last thirteen Carapazza games.

-- A's-Cle-- Last eight Meals games stayed under the total.
-- Chi-Blt-- 11 of 12 Baker games stayed under the total.
-- Tor-NY-- Five of last seven Hickox games went over total.
-- TB-Tex-- Five of last seven Knight games went over total.
-- Sea-Min-- Favorites won 16 of last 17 Demuth games.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-28-2012, 05:17 PM

MLB

Tuesday, August 28

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chi. White Sox - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore +134 500
Baltimore - Under 8 500

Toronto - 7:05 PM ET Toronto +203 500
NY Yankees - Over 9.5 500

NY Mets - 7:05 PM ET NY Mets +140 500
Philadelphia - Over 8.5 500

Oakland - 7:05 PM ET Oakland -113 500
Cleveland - Under 7.5 500

St. Louis - 7:05 PM ET Pittsburgh +107 500
Pittsburgh - Under 8 500

Washington - 7:10 PM ET Washington -172 500
Miami - Under 7.5 500

Tampa Bay - 8:05 PM ET Tampa Bay +115 500
Texas - Over 9 500

Milwaukee - 8:05 PM ET Milwaukee -167 500
Chi. Cubs - Over 7.5 500

San Francisco - 8:05 PM ET Houston +193 500
Houston - Under 7 500

Detroit - 8:10 PM ET Detroit -186 500
Kansas City - Over 7.5 500

Seattle - 8:10 PM ET Seattle +122 500
Minnesota - Under 8.5 500

LA Dodgers - 8:40 PM ET Colorado +149 500
Colorado - Under 10.5 500

Cincinnati - 9:40 PM ET Cincinnati -108 500
Arizona - Under 8 500

Boston - 10:05 PM ET Boston +178 500
LA Angels - Under 7.5 500

Atlanta - 10:05 PM ET San Diego +152 500
San Diego - Under 7 500

Announcement

The Bum's Tuesday's MLB Best Bets !

The Bum's Tuesday's MLB Best Bets !

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