NCAAF trends and Indexes - Week 1 (Thursday, August 30 - Monday, September 3)

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, September 1

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Notre Dame vs. Navy: What bettors need to know
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Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Navy Midshipmen (+15, 52.5)

After a tumultuous off-season for Brian Kelly – with player suspensions, injuries, transfers and arrests – the Notre Dame coach will be happy to get to work and finally land in Dublin, Ireland, for Saturday's season opener between Notre Dame and Navy at Aviva Stadium.

Kelly’s team will make the trip missing almost a dozen players since the 2012 spring football season began in March. Most notably, Notre Dame will be without two important offensive starters from last season – quarterback Tommy Rees and running back Cierre Wood – both of which were suspended for the Navy game after violating team rules.

The timing of the player shortage becomes of greater concern for Notre Dame because Navy has been an ornery opponent in recent years with three upset wins over the Irish in the last five meetings – the first of which came in 2007 that broke an NCAA-record 43-game winning streak in the series that ran from 1964 to 2006. After eight straight appearances in a bowl game, the Midshipmen saw their postseason streak end last season, in part because they lost five games by a total of 11 points.

TV: 9 a.m., ET, CBS.

LINE: Notre Dame opened as high as -17 but has been bet down in the days before kickoff. The total has also tumbled, going from 55 to 52.5 points.

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (2011: 8-5): The option offense Navy operates is always difficult to defend. But with Notre Dame’s experienced front seven considered one of the stronger points of the team, and after having the entire training camp to prepare for Navy’s unique offensive system, the Irish coaches feel well prepared.

ABOUT NAVY (2011: 5-7): Junior quarterback Trey Miller takes over the Navy offense after playing sparingly in seven appearances last season. Miller made one start in 2011, ironically, against Notre Dame because of an injury to starter Kriss Proctor. The good news is Navy returns three starters on the offensive line to help open holes in the option game.

TRENDS:

* Fighting Irish are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings in Navy.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Road team is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. After losing to Navy 35-17 in 2010 – a second straight loss to the Midshipmen – Notre Dame rebounded with an impressive 56-14 victory last season, it’s biggest blowout in 2011.

2. With 85 meetings dating back to 1927, Notre Dame has played Navy more than any other opponent, but this is the first time the two teams will meet in a season opener. The Irish lead the series 72-12-1.

3. Perhaps Irish punter Ben Turk can stay home because in the last seven meetings, Notre Dame has punted five times.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, September 1

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Michigan vs. Alabama: What bettors need to know
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Michigan Wolverines vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (-14, 47)

The first regular-season meeting - and only the fourth all-time - between a pair of storied programs will serve as one of the premier matchups on college football's opening weekend as No. 2 Alabama and No. 8 Michigan square off in the Cowboys Classic in Arlington, Texas.

Michigan has won its last 12 regular-season non-conference games and its last 13 September games, but both streaks will be in jeopardy against the defending national champions. The Crimson Tide begin their quest for a 15th national title - and its third under coach Nick Saban. It's the first of three matchups with preseason top 10 teams for Alabama, which faces No. 10 Arkansas on Sept. 15 and No. 1 LSU on Nov. 3.

TV: 8:12 p.m. ET, ABC.

LINE: Alabama -14. Oddsmakers opened the Crimson Tide as low as -11 but action on the defending national champs has pushed the spread to two touchdowns. The total has climbed from 45 to 47 points.

ABOUT MICHIGAN (2011: 11-2, 6-2 Big Ten): The Wolverines' offense runs through quarterback Denard Robinson, who is one of the most entertaining players in the nation. Robinson ranks sixth in Michigan history with 40 touchdown passes and fifth with 35 touchdown runs. Michigan has replaced two starters on the offensive line and three on the defensive line, though, so the Wolverines will be inexperienced in the trenches.

ABOUT ALABAMA (2011: 12-1, 7-1 SEC): Gone is star running back Trent Richardson, but the offensive line that paved the way for him is back, led by Outland Trophy winner Barrett Jones. Junior Eddie Lacy takes over the starting job running behind that line after playing in 24 games as a backup to Richardson and Mark Ingram over the past two seasons.

TRENDS:

* Wolverines are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
* Crimson Tide are 8-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference games.
* Over is 7-1 in Wolverines' last eight vs. SEC.
* Over is 8-3-1 in Crimson Tide's last 12 non-conference games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. In 67 games under Saban, Alabama has held opponents to less than 300 total yards 40 times. The Crimson Tide have allowed 10 points or less 33 times during Saban's tenure.

2. Michigan is 24-9-1 against current SEC teams, but the Wolverines haven't faced an SEC opponent in the regular season since 2006.

3. The Wolverines, who are 109-20-3 all-time in season openers, have never opened a season with a neutral-site game. Alabama has won 10 straight season openers dating to a 20-17 loss to UCLA to start the 2001 campaign.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Saturday's games
Top games

Navy has beaten Notre Dame three of last five years; they're 9-6 against spread in last 15 series games. Over last decade, Middies are 24-9 vs the spread as a road underdog- they're 12-6 overall as underdog under Coach Nuimatalolo. Irish QB Rees is suspended for this game; Notre Dame has seven other starters back on offense, six on defense, with three starters back on OL. Over last four years, disciplined Navy is +40 in its turnover ratio- they only lost by a FG at a good South Carolina squad LY.

Penn State starts new era here, having covered just four of last 17 tries as a home favorite. Lions are starting seven seniors on defense but return only four starters on defense, five on offense. Since '09, State is 2-12 vs spread in non-league games. Ohio U is 27-14 SU last three years, playing in bowls (1-2) all three years; they're 8-4 vs spread in last dozen tries as a road underdog. Bobcats have 3rd-year starting QB in Tettleton who is best QB on this field, and eight starters back on defense.

Home side won both Northwestern-Syracuse games when these teams met in '08-'09; underdogs are 17-8 vs spread in Northwestern's last 25 road games. Wildcats lost six starters on both sides of ball; their QB has made six career starts, but three of those were at WR. Northwestern is 11-17 vs spread in last 28 non-league games. Since '07, Syracuse is 12-20 vs spread in Carrier Dome, 17-29 SU since '05. Orange lost six starters on defense but does have a senior QB- they better not be looking ahead to next week's game with USC at Giants Stadium.

Boston College (+13.5) won 24-17 at Miami LY, in last game played by both teams; Eagles were +3 in turnovers in teams' first meeting since '07. Miami won four of last five visits here, with underdogs covering four of those five games. 'canes are just 41-35 since '06, 13-10 vs spread on road since '08. Eagles have ten starters back on offense, four on OL, seven on defense; their QB has 21 career starts. BC is just 6-7 SU in its last 13 home games, 3-10 vs spread. Miami lost six of last seven road openers.

Colorado won seven of last nine games with Colorado State, with faves covering five of last six, as both sides have fallen on hard times. State has 7 starters back on offense, 3 on OL, 8 on defense and new HC in former Alabama OC McElwain, who is breaking in new QB. Rams are 17-24 vs spread in non-league games over last decade. Buffs have only 3 starters back on offense, 6 on defene; they've had six losing years in row. New QB is a transfer from Texas, so he could be an upgrade over Hansen. Since 2008, Colorado is 2-5 against spread as the favorite.

Clemson put up 624 yards in 38-24 win over Auburn LY, avenging OT loss to Newton-led War Eagles year before. Another new QB and shaky WRs for Auburn squad that slipped to 8-5 in first year post-Cam; they're 8-9 vs spread away from home in Chizik era, 7-7 as an underdog. Clemson spent serious $$$ on defensive assistants in offseason, after giving up 70 points in bowl meltdown. Clemson is 14-11 vs spread last 25 games as favorite, but covered just three of last 11 on neutral fields. Boyd has good year in first season as Clemson QB (33 TD, 12 INT).

Proud Michigan program getting 14 points on a neutral field? Since '07, Wolverines are 7-11 vs spread as underdog, but they've got senior QB here with 27 career starts (1,349 YR, 2,173 PY LY). Problem for them is this; since '08, Alabama is 28-16 vs spread when favored. Tide is 48-6 in last four seasons- they crushed Michigan State 49-7 in bowl game two years ago. Junior QB McCarron threw only five INTs in 328 passes LY and won national title. Tide did lose five starters on offense, six more on defense and they have new OC in former Saints' QB Nussmeier.

Washington has trip to LSU on deck, better not look past San Diego St, squad that is 6-3 vs spread as road underdog last three years. Aztecs are breaking in new QB and three new starters on OL, but Huskies lost their bowl 67-56 LY, so the OC got a better job and the DC got fired- they've got 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense. Huskies' QB Price has 13 career starts; both his starting tackles are new this season. Washington is 6-4 as home favorite under Sarkisian, after it was 5-19 as home favorite from '02-'08.

UAB is 4-3 in its last seven games vs Troy State; teams split couple of 1-point decisions the last two years. Trojans gained 520+ total yards in last three meetings, but lost three of last four visits here, with two of the three losses by a single point. Blazers lost seven starters on defense and four on offense; they're 7-3-1 vs spread as home underdogs since 2008. Troy has nine starters back on offense, six on defense from 3-9 team, the worst in Blakeney's 21 years with Trojans, who are 3-7 vs spread as a road favorite the last three seasons.

Duke (+4) won 31-27 at Florida International LY, after trailing by 10 in 4th quarter; FIU outgained them 568-394, throwing ball for 392 yards. Blue Devils have 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense-- they're 4-3-1 vs spread as home favorite under Cutcliffe. Panthers are 7-6/8-5 last two seasons, first two winning year for program that started in '04. FIU has 7 starters back on offense, 10 on defense from that that lost to Marshall in Beef O'Brady's Bowl, 20-10. FIU is breaking in new QB but has four starters back on offensive line.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, September 1

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Clemson vs. Auburn: What bettors need to know
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Clemson Tigers vs. Auburn Tigers (+3, 55)

A budding rivalry marked by wild comebacks will be renewed when No. 25 Auburn takes on No. 14 Clemson in a Chick-Fil-A Kickoff game at the Georgia Dome. Clemson nearly derailed Auburn's national championship season in 2010, jumping out to a 17-0 lead before Cam Newton and Auburn rallied at home to win 27-24 in overtime. Clemson returned the favor last season, rebounding from a 21-7 deficit for a 38-24 home win. Auburn leads the all-time series 34-12-2 and had won 14 straight before Clemson's win last year.

Auburn has new offensive and defensive coordinators, with Scot Loeffler taking over the offense from Gus Malzahn and Brian Van Gorder replacing Ted Roof at the helm of the defense. Clemson also boasts a new defensive coordinator, having lured Brent Venables away from Oklahoma after 13 seasons with the Sooners. The Tigers hope Venables can lead the same dramatic turnaround offensive coordinator Chad Morris sparked for his unit last year, when Clemson averaged 33.6 points and 440.8 total yards.

Clemson is one of three teams in the nation to return a 3,000-yard passer (Tajh Boyd), 1,000-yard receiver (Sammy Watkins) and 1,000-yard rusher (Andre Ellington). Watkins won't suit up for the opener, though, as he serves a two-game suspension stemming from his arrest in the offseason. Auburn also will be shorthanded for disciplinary reasons, as sophomore center Reese Dismukes has been suspended indefinitely after his arrest for public intoxication.

TV: 7:05 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Clemson -3. In this clash of two Tigers, oddsmakers opened Clemson as a 3.5-point road favorite, which had come down half a point. The total has moved from as high as 59.5 at some online books.

ABOUT AUBURN (2011: 8-5, 4-4 SEC): The Tigers have turned over the offense to sophomore QB Kiehl Frazier, who appeared in 13 games a year ago and rushed for 327 yards and three touchdowns. Frazier has options at his disposal, including senior RB Onterio McCalebb (985 total yards in 2011), senior WR Emory Blake (36 catches, 613 yards, 5 TDs) and senior TE Philip Lutzenkirchen (24 catches, 238 yards, 7 TDs), but he will need to establish himself as a more effective passer for the Tigers to be successful.

ABOUT CLEMSON (2011: 10-4, 6-2 ACC): The Tigers boast their highest preseason ranking since 2008, when they started the season ranked ninth but finished out of the rankings after a disappointing 7-6 campaign. The defending ACC champions have reason for optimism, especially on the offensive side of the ball, as they return a dynamic trio in QB Tajh Boyd, RB Andre Ellington and WR Sammy Watkins.

TRENDS:

* Clemson Tigers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine neutral site games.
* Auburn Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.
* Over is 4-1 in Clemson Tigers' last five non-conference games.
* Over is 9-4 in Auburn Tigers' last 13 non-conference games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Auburn has won 74 consecutive games when scoring 30 or more points, dating to a 56-49 four-overtime loss to Georgia in 1996.

2. Auburn is 5-2 all-time in the Georgia Dome and has won its last four games there, including SEC championship games in 2004 and 2010. Clemson is 2-5 all-time in the Georgia Dome, including an 0-2 mark against Auburn.

3. Clemson has won 21 of its last 27 season openers and seven of its last 10. The Tigers' three opening losses in the past decade have come against top-25 teams. Auburn has won its last six openers and is 92-25-2 all-time in opening games.


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[Udog]

College football weather watch: Week 1

With Hurricane Isaac still lingering across the southern United States and threatening to move further north, college football bettors should be aware of the sloppy conditions expected for the first big weekend of the season.

Here are a few key matchups that are being threatened by inclement weather:

Miami (OH) at Ohio State (-25.5, total set at 51)

Site: Ohio Stadium

Forecasts are calling for an 80 percent chance of rain with winds light out of the south.

Marshall at West Virginia (-27, total set at 69.5)

Site: Mountaineer Field

Forecasts are calling for a 50 percent of precipitation with light winds out of the west.

Buffalo at Georgia (-38.5, total set at 54.5)

Site: Sanford Stadium

Forecasts are calling for a 25 percent chance of a thunderstorm with light winds out of the west.

North Texas at LSU (-44, total set at 52)

Site: Tiger Stadium

Forecasts are calling for a 45 percent chance of a thunderstorm with winds light out of the south.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Sunday's games

Kentucky won four of last five games with Louisville; five of last seven series games were decided by 7 or less points, with underdogs going 7-3 vs spread in last ten. Kentucky has 6 starters back on offense, 2 on OL, 5 back on defense; their soph QB started three games LY. Wildcats are 6-9 vs spread as underdog under Phillips, 2-6 on road. Louisville is pick to win Big East this year, after going 7-6 in each of Strong's first two years as HC, but Cardinals are 4-9 vs spread at home under Strong, 6-6 when favored (4-6 at home). Soph QB Bridgewater started 10 games LY; they have four starters back on OL, but two of them are sophomores.

Baylor begins life after RGIII, but at least Florence has 7 career starts, and he's a senior; Bears are 13-7 vs spread as home favorite last decade, 9-4 under Briles- they're 10-7 vs spread in last 17 non-league tilts. SMU lost its whole OL from LY and has only 3 starters back on offense; they are 2-6 as road underdogs last two years. Baylor DC Bennett was HC at SMU from '02-'07. Mustang QB Gilbert is Texas transfer who started 10 games for Longhorns. These former SWC rivals are meeting for first time since '05. Baylor allowed 30+ points in seven of last eight games LY.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Sunday, September 2

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What bettors need to know: Kentucky at Louisville
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Kentucky Wildcats at Louisville Cardinals (-12.5, 42)

Louisville will try to win its second straight Governor’s Cup against Kentucky on Sunday after losing the previous four. The Cardinals tied for the Big East title last season and have a lot of talent back to make a run for a BCS bowl game. Louisville won five of its last six regular-season games as quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, the Big East Rookie of the Year, came of age. Bridgewater won’t have his top receiver Michaelee Harris, lost for the season with a knee injury, but the Cardinals have depth at the position.

Kentucky will likely face a very solid defense, which has six starters returning, without Josh Clemons. The tailback had arthroscopic knee surgery last week. Still, the pressure is squarely on Louisville. Kentucky leads the series 14-10 and has won five straight season openers overall.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Louisville -13

KENTUCKY (2011: 5-7, 2-6 SEC): The Wildcats beat Ole Miss, Tennessee and gave Georgia a scare in their last four games to squeeze something out of a disappointing season. When Clemons returns, Kentucky could have a solid one-punch at running back with CoShik Williams, who had a team-leading 486 yards in 2011. Sophomore Maxwell Smith won the battle for the quarterback spot. The team’s most productive returning player - La’Rod King (40 receptions, 598 yards) - will make his job easier. The Wildcats allowed 24.7 points per contest last year and have lost some key personnel on defense. Others must step up, especially defensive back Martavius Neloms.

LOUISVILLE (2011: 7-6, 5-2 Big East): If the Cardinals can match last season’s solid efforts on defense, they are the definite frontrunner in the Big East. Louisville was second in the Big East in total defense and 10th in the nation in rushing defense in 2011. The Cardinals lost some key performers, but have talented safety Hakeem Smith, cornerback Adrian Bushell and linebacker Preston Brown to lead the way. Coach Charlie Strong is expecting Bridgewater to progress after throwing 14 touchdown passes and being intercepted 12 times. Converted quarterback Dominique Brown should be able to take some pressure off at running back as well.

TRENDS

*Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Louisville.
*Under is 9-0 in Cardinals’ last nine home games.
*Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
*Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Louisville must replace their starting punter and place kicker.

2. Kentucky was 118th in total offense last season at less than 260 yards per game.

3. The Under is 9-0 in Louisville’s last nine home games.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Sunday, September 2

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What bettors need to know: SMU at Baylor
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Southern Methodist at Baylor (-8.5, 58.5)

With the explosive combination of Robert Griffin III and Kendall Wright in the NFL, Baylor begins anew with an old Southwest Conference rival in Southern Methodist on Sunday. While quarterback Nick Florence cannot be expected to replace Griffin’s production, it will not be the first time the senior signal-caller will be asked to fill in for the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, like he did when Griffin was lost for the year early in 2009. Wide receiver Terrance Williams returns to lead a group of three returning receivers who caught at least 42 passes last season. SMU, which will join the Big East Conference in all sports next July, begins its final season in Conference USA after closing 2011 with an impressive victory over Pittsburgh in the BBVA Compass Bowl.

TV: 6:30 p.m. ET, FSN.

LINE: Baylor -10

ABOUT SMU (2011: 8-5, 5-3 C-USA): Running back Zach Line puts some bite into the ground game of coach June Jones’ run-and-shoot offense. The two-time All-Conference USA selection has led the league in rushing in each of the past two seasons, but the addition of quarterback Garrett Gilbert – a University of Texas transfer – could make this offense special. The Gatorade National Player of the Year in 2009, Gilbert threw two touchdown passes in the Longhorns’ BCS title game loss to Alabama that same year and started every game for Texas in 2010 before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury early last season.

ABOUT BAYLOR (2011: 10-3, 6-3 Big 12): Wide receiver Darryl Stonum joins the team after sitting out last season following his transfer from Michigan, where he caught 49 passes in 2010. In the running game, Oregon transfer Lache Seastrunk and Jarred Salubi form an impressive tandem that will try to replace running back Terrance Ganaway’s 1,547 rushing yards from a season ago. More will be asked of the defense this season as eight starters return on that side of the ball, although newcomer defensive end Javonte Magee may end up packing the biggest punch for this unit.

TRENDS

*Bears are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games.
*Under is 4-0 in Mustangs last four games overall.
*Mustangs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
*Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

EXTRA POINTS

1. SMU leads the all-time series 36-35-7, but Baylor has won nine consecutive contests dating back to their last meeting in 2005.

2. Baylor enters this game on a six-game winning streak, the third-longest active run in the nation.

3. The Mustangs have not opened a season with a win on the road since 1986.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Monday's game

Virginia Tech won six of last eight games with Georgia Tech, with dogs covering five of the last six; Yellow Jackets lost three of last four visits to Blacksburg, but covered last three. Hokies have 9 starters back on its defense but only three on offense (one on OL); their QB has 14 career starts. Since '09, Va Tech is 16-10 vs spread in ACC games, but they're 12-16-1 as a home favorite since '06. Ga Tech has four starters back on its OL and a senior QB with 17 career starts; since '04, they're 16-7-1 vs spread as a road dog. Last two years, they're 4-10-2 vs spread in ACC play. Average total in last three series games is 54.3. Yellow Jackets run the option, so an advantage to play them in opener, since you have more time to prepare for it.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Monday, September 3

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What bettors need to know: Georiga Tech at Virginia Tech
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Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech (-7, 49)

An important Atlantic Coast Conference contest caps the first week of the college football season when No. 20 Virginia Tech hosts Georgia Tech. The winner of this duel has won the Coastal Division title in all seven seasons since the ACC split into divisions. Virginia Tech has won five of those contests. The defensive-minded Hokies have won 10 or more games in eight consecutive seasons (the longest current streak among FBS teams) and possess the nation’s third-longest bowl game streak with 19 straight appearances. Run-oriented Georgia Tech has made 15 consecutive bowl appearances, which ties for the fourth-longest active streak. Virginia Tech won last year’s meeting 37-26 as quarterback Logan Thomas passed for three touchdowns and rushed for two.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Virginia Tech -7

ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (2011: 8-5, 5-3 ACC): The Yellow Jackets will rely on a potent running game that averaged 316.5 yards per game last season, second-best nationally. Senior quarterback Tevin Washington is a shaky thrower (49.3 percent in 2011) but a terrific runner who had 987 yards and 14 touchdowns. Senior running back David Sims (698 yards) is solid and junior running back Orwin Smith (10.1 average, 11 touchdowns on 61 carries) is a true gamebreaker. Junior outside linebacker Jeremiah Attaochu (six sacks) and junior safety Isaiah Johnson (78 tackles) are the top players on an average defense.

ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (11-3, 7-1 ACC): Thomas is a junior who passed for 3,013 yards and 19 touchdowns last season while adding 11 scores on the ground. Redshirt freshman Michael Holmes won the running back job as the Hokies attempt to replace ACC Player of the Year David Wilson. Virginia Tech was 10th nationally in total defense last season and has a strong nucleus of returners that includes junior defensive ends James Gayle (seven sacks) and J.R. Collins (six sacks), and junior cornerbacks Kyle Fuller (14.5 tackles for losses) and Antone Exum (team-high 89 tackles). Junior inside linebacker Tariq Edwards (11.5 tackles for losses) is out with a knee injury.

TRENDS

*Hokies are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
*Over is 8-0 in Yellow Jackets' last eight games in September.
*Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
*Under is 4-1 in their last five meetings.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Virginia Tech has won four of the past five meetings and leads the series 6-3.

2. Georgia Tech led the nation with seven touchdown drives of 90 or more yards last season. The Yellow Jackets had 20 TD drives of 80 or more yards.

3. The Hokies have won 12 of their last 16 season openers and Georgia Tech has won 11 of its last 13.


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