The Bum's Saturday's MLB Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Haren & Angels In Detroit To Tackle Tigers

August has not been kind to the Los Angeles Angels who have seen the opposition score almost at will while falling further behind the Texas Rangers in the AL West race. Manager Mike Scioscia hopes recent developments in Boston signal a turnaround for his club as they conclude a road trip in Detroit against the Tigers this weekend.

Saturday's contest is set for a 7:05 p.m. (ET) first pitch from Comerica Park where rookie Drew Smyly will toe the slab for the Motown crew against LA's Dan Haren. Initial offerings on the MLB odds board had the Halos at -115 with a 9½-run total.

The two clubs each entered the series trying to chase down their respective division leaders while locked in hand-to-hand combat for the two American League wild cards. Detroit was 1.5-games behind the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central and in a three-team deadlock alongside Oakland and Baltimore for the second wild card slot, 2.5-games behind the Tampa Bay Rays. Los Angeles was 2.5 behind the Tigers, A's and Orioles for the No. 2 wild card, and 8.5 games south of the Rangers in the West.

Detroit was an ever-so-slight favorite for Friday's contest which was still pending. A 9-run total was posted for the pitching matchup between the Tigers' Rick Porcello and Angels' Zack Greinke.

It goes without saying this series is important for both clubs, but it's especially so for the Angels who have seen their pitching fall apart in August. Three arms at the top of the culpability list are starters CJ Wilson plus Greinke and Haren. The Halos are 2-10 this month when that trio pitches, and the high-profile hurlers have combined for a 7.93 ERA. The club is 8-13 overall in August after completing a sweep in Boston earlier this week, and LA has been outscored 150-119 in the process.

Haren hasn't really been his old self all season, making the first trip of his career to the disabled list in July due to a bad back and being skipped his last start thanks to a day off on the schedule. His first three starts back from the DL were solid efforts, so Scioscia is hoping the extra rest helps get Haren back on track.

He was certainly on track the last time he faced the Tigers at Comerica Park, tossing a 6-hit complete game a little more than a year ago in a 5-1 triumph. Haren is 4-4 lifetime vs. Detroit with a 3.68 ERA.

Smyly is being recalled from Triple-A Toledo to replace the injured Doug Fister who has been temporarily sidelined with a groin pull. Fister is expected to miss just this one start, so Detroit will have to make a roster move before Saturday's game to plug Smyly into the lineup.

The southpaw out of the University of Arkansas opened the campaign as the No. 5 arm in Jim Leyland's rotation, and initially produced solid results before the league started to catch up to him and a strained intercostal muscle eventually sent Smyly to the DL. He'll be facing the Angels for the first time in his young career, with the Halos 21-19 this season vs. left-handers.

Detroit is also dealing with a minor ankle injury to slugger Miguel Cabrera. He left Thursday's contest early with a sore right ankle and was officially listed as questionable for the series opener against the Angels on Friday.

Comerica Park has proved hospitable for the Angels over the years. Los Angeles is 29-25 on this diamond after splitting the four played in Detroit a year ago. The Tigers took three of four in Anaheim a little more than a month ago, the 'over' cashing twice along with one 'push.'

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, August 25

Hot pitchers
-- White is 0-0, 3.38 (21.1 IP) in his last five starts.
-- Dickey is 2-2, 2.75 in his last five starts.
-- Bumgarner is 4-2, 2.09 in his last eight starts. Minor has a 2.22 RA in his last seven starts, but Braves lost last three.
-- GGonzalez is 3-0, 2.53 in his last three starts. Halladay is 3-1, 2.79 in his last four outings.
-- Richard is 3-1, 2.08 in his last four starts.
-- Johnson is 0-3, 3.00 in his last three starts; Marlins scored total of just three runs in those three games. Kershaw is 4-1, 1.88 in his last five starts.

-- Hellickson is 4-2, 2.55 in his last seven starts.
-- Kuroda is 4-1, 1.39 in his last seven starts.
-- Johnson is 2-0, 1.38 in two starts for Baltimore.
-- Quintana has a 2.67 in his last three starts.
-- Guthrie is 2-0, 0.79 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Raley is 1-2, 8.22 in three starts for the Cubs.
-- Abad is 0-0, 3.86 in 30 big league games (23.1 IP) this year; he went back to minors and was 1-0, 4.50 in three starts at AAA level. This will be his first major league start.
-- Cardinals lost last three Garcia starts (0-2, 6.75). Leake is 1-2, 6.67 in his last five starts.
-- Marcum was 3-0, 2.30 in his last four starts before going on DL, but his last start was June 14. Karstens is 0-1, 4.05 in his last three starts.
-- Kennedy is 1-2, 6.75 in his last three starts.

-- McCarthy is 0-2, 6.75 in his last three starts.
-- Duensing is 1-2, 6.48 in his last four starts. Dempster has a 7.20 RA in his four starts for Texas.
-- Masterson is 2-3, 8.90 in his last five starts.
-- Morrow was 2-1, 1.17 in his last three starts before going on DL; his last start was back on June 11.
-- Haren lost his last two starts, allowing 12 runs in seven IP. Smyly is 2-2, 6.57 in his last five starts, last of which was July 6.
-- Beavan is 1-1, 4.67 in his last three starts.
-- I doubt Beckett (0-3, 9.92 in last three starts) is pitching for Boston here, but I don't know who the alternative is. Beckett is probably being traded. As of 4:50am Saturday, the Boston starter is listed as undecided.

Hot Teams
-- Colorado won nine of its last twelve games.
-- Washington won eight of its last eleven road games. Phillies won five of their last seven games.
-- Brewers won six of their last eight games.
-- Cardinals won five of their last six games. Reds are 10-5 in their last 15.
-- Padres won their last five games, allowing nine runs. Arizona won six of its last nine games.
-- Giants won seven of their last eight games.

-- Detroit won six of its last nine games. Angels won their last four games, scoring 28 runs.
-- Orioles won nine of their last twelve home games.
-- Tampa Bay won 19 of its last 26 games. A's won seven of their last nine.
-- Rangers won six of their last seven games.
-- Seattle won eight of its last nine games overall. White Sox won six of their last seven home games.

Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost six of their last eight games.
-- Pirates lost eleven of their last fifteen games.
-- Mets lost 14 of their last 18 games. Astros lost nine of their last eleven.
-- Dodgers lost five of their last eight games. Miami is 6-10 in its last 16.
-- Braves lost six of their last seven games.

-- Blue Jays lost nine of their last ten games.
-- Indians lost their last nine games; they scored six runs in last five games. Bronx Bombers lost four of their last six games.
-- Red Sox lost seven of their last ten games. Kansas City lost three of four.
-- Twins lost 12 of their last 14 games.

Totals
-- Five of last six Colorado games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Washington games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Milwaukee games stayed under the total. 13 of last 17 Pittsburgh games went over the total.
-- Six of Mets' last seven games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last ten Cincinnati games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven San Diego road games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Dodger games stayed under the total.
-- Ten of last thirteen San Francisco games went over the total.

-- 16 of last 22 Angel games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eleven Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Nine of last eleven Kansas City games stayed under the total.
-- 23 of last 33 Tampa Bay games stayed under total.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in Minnesota's last nine games.
-- Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Seattle games.

Umpires
-- Chi-Col-- Last seven Kulpa games stayed under the total.
-- Hst-NY-- Five of last seven Fairchild games went over.
-- StL-Cin-- Underdogs won seven of last nine TBarrett games, with five of last seven staying under.
-- Atl-SF-- Six of last eight West games stayed under the total.
-- Wsh-Phil-- Over is 4-0-1 in last five Gonzalez games.
-- Mil-Pitt-- Seven of last ten Eddings games stayed under total.
-- SD-Az-- Under is 8-0-1 in last nine Winters games.
-- Mia-LA-- Underdogs are 6-6 in last dozen Davidson games.

-- A's-TB-- Under is 9-4 in last thirteen Foster games.
-- Min-Tex-- Over is 9-4-1 in last fourteen Conroy games.
-- NY-Clev-- Over is 6-0-1 in last seven Johnson games.
-- Tor-Blt-- Underdogs are 9-5 in last fourteen Iassogna games.
-- LA-Det-- Four of last five Darling games stayed under the total.
-- Sea-Chi-- Four of last five LBarrett games went over the total.
-- KC-Bos-- Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven Layne games

[StarDust Bum]

Early Day Games:

Saturday, August 25

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Colorado - 1:05 PM ET Colorado -105 500
Chi. Cubs - Over 9.5 500

Oakland - 1:10 PM ET Oakland +157 500
Tampa Bay - Over 7 500

Houston - 1:10 PM ET Houston +260 500
NY Mets - Over 7 500

Atlanta - 4:05 PM ET San Francisco -150 500
San Francisco - Under 6.5 500

Minnesota - 4:05 PM ET Texas -231 500
Texas - Under 10.5 500

St. Louis - 4:05 PM ET St. Louis -109 500
Cincinnati - Over 8.5 500


Back later with evening games along with NFL,WNBA,CFL.....Good Luck !

[StarDust Bum]

Angels seek 5th straight road win Saturday


LOS ANGELES ANGELS (66-60)

at DETROIT TIGERS (67-58)


First pitch: Saturday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -105, Detroit -105, Total: 10

The sizzling hot Angels look to stay unbeaten on their current road trip Saturday when they play the middle of a three-game set in Detroit.

Los Angeles is 4-0 so far on the road trip, sweeping the Red Sox and edging the Tigers 2-1 on Friday night. Detroit is also playing very well, winning six of eight games before Friday’s defeat. Saturday’s game features two starters that haven’t won in a while. L.A.’s Dan Haren returns to the mound after getting his turn skipped in the rotation. The Angels are 0-3 in his three starts this month, as Haren has allowed 12 runs (10 ER) in just seven innings over his past two outings. The Tigers counter with Drew Smyly who hasn’t pitched since July 7 because of a strained oblique. Smyly replaces scheduled starter Doug Fister, who was scratched due to right groin tightness. Smyly has pitched well at Comerica Park this year, carting a 3.86 ERA with an impressive 39 strikeouts and just nine walks in 32.2 innings. Although the Angels are hot, they are just 9-17 (.346) when facing a team with a winning percentage of 51% to 54% this season, and may be without slugging 1B Albert Pujols again. Pujols injured his calf on Wednesday and is questionable to return Saturday. The pick here is DETROIT to prevail at home.

This pair of three-star FoxSheets trends also back the Tigers:

Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (DETROIT) - starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings against opponent starting a pitcher who was hit for 5+ runs in his last 2 outings. (49-21 since 1997.) (70%, +27.2 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (L.A. ANGELS) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a decent starter (ERA=4.20 to 4.70)-AL, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing. (33-11 since 1997.) (75%, +21.8 units. Rating = 3*).

Haren (8-10, 4.90 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) hasn’t won a road game since June 28, but his numbers are slightly better away from home this year (4.83 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) compared to in Anaheim (4.94 ERA, 1.43 WHIP). Although the Angels are just 8-14 when Haren takes the mound this season, he has been dominant against Detroit recently. In three starts versus the Tigers since 2008, Haren is 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA and 0.60 WHIP, tallying 14 K’s and just one walk in these 25 innings. This includes two complete games against them last year, where he threw a shutout at home and allowed just one run in a complete game in Detroit. Haren has been bailed out by his relievers frequently this season, but the Angels bullpen is wearing down, posting a major-league worst 6.99 ERA in August. The Angels ‘pen is 3-6 with a 1.58 WHIP during this month.

Smyly (4-3, 4.42 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) pitched very well in his two outings before going on the disabled list, going 2-0 with a 4.09 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 14 K’s and just one walk. The Tigers are just 8-7 in Smyly’s 15 starts this season, including a mediocre 3-3 at home. Smyly has never faced the Angels in his brief career, but he benefits from knowing the Tigers have won nine of the past 15 home meetings with Los Angeles. Smyly also realizes he has a strong bullpen behind him whenever he pitches at home. Tigers relievers have a 3.22 ERA and 1.23 WHIP at Comerica Park this year, converting 14-of-19 save chances (74%).

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Saturday

August 25, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Cardinals are 11-0 since August 02, 2011 as a dog when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1466.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Rockies are 13-0 OU since May 24, 2011 with a total over 7 after a 2-5 run loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $1300 when playing the over.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Indians are 10-0 OU since August 14, 2009 when Justin Masterson starts as a 140+ dog after the team lost their last two games for a net profit of $1015 when playing the over.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Cardinals are 1-15 (-2.2 rpg) since 2011 when on a 4+ game winning streak, if one of their last two wins was by more than one run. 1-5 this season.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Giants are 8-0 since July 06, 2011 when Madison Bumgarner starts at home after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $800.

-- The Dodgers are 10-0 since May 13, 2011 when Clayton Kershaw starts as a 140+ favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $1000.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Saturday, August 25

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Toronto - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore -108 500
Baltimore - Under 8.5 500

NY Yankees - 7:05 PM ET NY Yankees -164 500
Cleveland - Over 8.5 500

Washington - 7:05 PM ET Washington +104 500
Philadelphia - Over 7 500

LA Angels - 7:05 PM ET Detroit -102 500
Detroit - Over 10 500

Milwaukee - 7:05 PM ET Pittsburgh -103 500
Pittsburgh - Over 8 500

Kansas City - 7:10 PM ET Kansas City +142 500
Boston - Under 9.5 500

Seattle - 7:10 PM ET Seattle +164 500
Chi. White Sox - Over 9 500

San Diego - 8:10 PM ET San Diego +164 500
Arizona - Over 9 500

Miami - 9:10 PM ET Miami +168 500
LA Dodgers - Over 6 500

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Short Sheet


Saturday, August 25

National League

Colorado at Chicago Cubs, 1:05 ET
White: Colorado 3-17 SU when playing on Saturday
Raley: Chicago Cubs 9-1 SU at home against NL West opponents

Houston at NY Mets, 1:10 ET
Abad: Houston 4-29 SU as an underdog of +175 to +250
Dickey: 10-2 TSR in day games

St. Louis at Cincinnati, 4:05 ET
Garcia: ST Louis 2-15 SU after 4 or more consecutive wins
Leake: 9-0 TSR at home when playing on Saturday

Atlanta at San Francisco, 4:05 ET
Minor: Atlanta 11-6 SU as a road underdog of +125 to +150
Bumgarner: San Francisco 11-20 SU at home against NL East opponents

Washington at Philadelphia, 7:05 ET
Gonzalez: Washington 46-28 SU vs an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse
Halladay: Philadelphia 4-12 SU at home vs an NL pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh, 7:05 ET
Marcum: Milwaukee 4-15 SU on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5
Karstens: Pittsburgh 15-5 SU when playing on Saturday

San Diego at Arizona, 8:10 ET
Richard: 7-22 TSR in night games
Kennedy: 19-3 TSR against division opponents

Miami at LA Dodgers, 9:10 ET
Johnson: Miami 9-24 SU after 2 straight games without a stolen base
Kershaw: LA Dodgers 15-5 SU when playing on Saturday


American League

Oakland at Tampa Bay, 1:10 ET
McCarthy: Oakland 9-5 SU as a road underdog of +150 to +200
Hellickson: Tampa Bay 33-35 SU at home when the total is 7 to 7.5

Minnesota at Texas, 4:05 ET
Duensing: Minnesota 4-20 SU in road games when playing on Saturday
Dempster: Texas 53-26 SU after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8

NY Yankees at Cleveland, 7:05 ET
Kuroda: NY Yankees 11-3 SU in road games after a win by 2 runs or less
Masterson: Cleveland 4-18 SU in August games

Toronto at Baltimore, 7:05 ET
Morrow: Toronto 11-22 SU after 4 or more consecutive road games
Chen: Baltimore 13-7 SU when playing on Saturday

LA Angels at Detroit, 7:05 ET
Haren: LA Angels 57-29 SU after scoring 2 runs or less
Smyly: Detroit 5-13 SU after 3 games where the BP gave up no runs

Seattle at Chicago White Sox, 7:10 ET
Beavan: Seattle 7-29 SU after allowing 9 runs or more
Quintana: CHI White Sox 13-3 SU after scoring 9 runs or more

Kansas City at Boston, 7:10 ET
Guthrie: Kansas City 13-9 SU in August
Beckett: 1-7 TSR when the total is 9 to 9.5