The Bum's Friday's MLB Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Athletics Head East To Meet Tampa Bay Rays

A sneak preview of the American League wild card game perhaps? Or will this weekend's 3-game series at Tropicana Field be the Waterloo for one club's hopes of reaching the postseason?

Either way, it makes for an intriguing matchup when the Tampa Bay Rays host the Oakland Athletics beginning Thursday (7:10 p.m. ET). The opening battle is even more intriguing after Bartolo Colon, Oakland's starter for Thursday, was suspended on Wednesday due to a failed drug test. Alex Cobb is still slated to pitch for the Rays, with word that the A's will call up Tyson Ross from the minors to replace Colon.

Odds for the game were still pending with the late pitching change for Oakland.

One of the first things that bears mentioning about the series in general, and Game 1 in particular, is the A's and Rays will get a very rare regular season Sunday off with the circus in town and having booked The Trop for its opening act. Well, not the real circus where there are signs of real intelligence when the elephants perform. I'm referring to the circus that is in the form of the Republican National Convention in Tampa for a few days. Those elephants are holding a meet-&-greet at Tropicana Field on Sunday, resulting in Oakland and Tampa Bay not being able to use the facilities that day.

This series would have normally started Friday with both the Athletics and Rays taking Thursday off, and Oakland wouldn't have needed to find a replacement for Colon. The A's will instead take a long flight in the southeasterly direction after they finish a homestand Wednesday as 170 chalk against the Twins. The Rays were also completing a series with a Wednesday matinee as $1.85 favorites vs. the Royals.

Each team was second in its respective division heading into those games, the Rays 4-games south of the Yankees in the AL East while the Athletics was five behind Texas out West. Tampa Bay had a grip on the top AL wild-card slot, a game in front of Baltimore and 1.5 ahead of Oakland.

Colon was enjoying a solid season for the A's who were 14-9 behind the beefy Dominican, including five wins the last six times he was on the mound. That record was good enough to put followers close to seven units in the black.

Oakland just recently plugged Brett Anderson back into the rotation following the lefty's absence due to Tommy John surgery, and AJ Griffin was set to begin a rehab assignment on Wednesday as he recovers from a shoulder ailment. Either Griffin or Dan Straily could become the long-term replacement for Colon, but the task will go to Ross on Thursday.

The local kid and former Cal product made a dozen starts for the A's earlier this season, mostly with disastrous results. Oakland won just four of the 12 games while Ross pitched to a 6.35 ERA. He has since made 13 assignments at Sacramento with a 5-2 mark and 2.74 ERA.

Cobb was enjoying a fine stretch on the hill before he ran into the Angels in Anaheim his last time out. Halo hitters pounded the Beantown native for 12 hits, including a pair of jacks, and eight runs before Rays manager Joe Maddon had seen enough two outs into the third. That halted a stretch of four quality starts and three straight wins, with the winning streak started by a solid performance in Oakland on Aug. 1 (7 IP, 1 ER).

Oakland was Tampa Bay's daddy early on in this head-to-head series, as you might expect, but the Rays have turned things around and it has been fairly level the past few seasons (A's 21-20 since start of '08). That includes the teams splitting their first six meetings this year, the road team taking two of three in the two previous series. Two of three at The Trop back in early-May skipped 'over' the total, eight of the last 10 in the Sunshine State also going that direction.

[StarDust Bum]

Cards Look To Cut Into Reds NL Central Lead

Developments in the National League wild card race have put the St. Louis Cardinals in position to return to the postseason.

They’d rather try to defend their title as the NL Central champs, but to do so they had better begin making up some ground on division-leading Cincinnati Reds this weekend at Great American Ball Park. Entering this weekend set, Cincy has a commanding 8-game lead over the second-place Redbirds in the Central.

Maybe it’s going to have to be the wild card after all for Mike Matheny’s team.

These teams continue their chase for the postseason on Friday in the opener of the three-game set, with the Cardinals’ Lance Lynn and the Reds’ Mat Latos on the mound. The Don Best MLB odds screen notes that Cincinnati was priced as an early 140 favorite, with a +130 take-back price on the Cards at most Las Vegas sports books. Early prices on the total are eight and shaded to the ‘over’ at -115.

First pitch on the banks of the Ohio River will be at 7:10 p.m. (ET), with both Fox Sports Midwest and Ohio providing TV coverage. Both sides have also been trending positively since last week, as through Wednesday the Reds had won 7-of-10, and the Cards 6-of-10.

Interestingly, despite sitting eight games behind Cincy in the Central standings, St. Louis has a superior run differential (+115 vs. +75) to the Reds. But the Redbirds have been in chase mode for a while after Dusty Baker’s squad took control of the division race after the All-Star break.

And recent efforts of Friday’s starter Latos are one of the reasons that Cincinnati has been on the ascent. Over Latos’ last 12 starts, the ex-Padre has allowed more than two earned runs only once, while the Reds have won in nine of the 12. Over those 12 games, Latos’ ERA is a microscopic 1.92, with 70 Ks and only 23 walks.

In four August starts, Latos has been even better, with a 0.92 ERA and the same 0.92 WHIP, along with a .184 OBA. Cincy has also won all four of Latos’ starts this month.

It’s worth mentioning, however, that Latos has struggled in his career against the Cardinals, hit hard in an April 18 loss at Busch Stadium, and has won only one of five career starts vs. the Redbirds with a hefty ERA (9.75) in those outings as well. But Latos did record that one career win vs. St. Louis when he last faced the Cards on July 13, when allowing two runs and four hits in five innings of work in an eventual 5-3 Reds win.

The emergence of Cuban fireballer Aroldis Chapman as a better-than-serviceable closer has also been a positive for Dusty’s troops. Assuming the closer role after Ryan Madson went down with injury, Chapman now has 31 saves and continues to terrorize batters with his 100+ mph heat, resulting in nearly rwo Ks per inning (112 strikeouts in 62 IP).

That the Reds have been surging without injured 1B Joey Votto (out since mid-July after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his left knee) is also testament to the depth on Dusty Baker’s roster. Stepping into the power breach has been OF Ryan Ludwick, who has a whopping 13 homers since the All-Star break (most in the NL) and 25 dingers on the season.

As for Votto, he’s expected back in the lineup by the end of the month.

Meanwhile, Cards manager Matheny might be holding his breath with Friday’s starter Lynn, the ex-Ole Miss product who has wobbled a bit in recent outings. The Cardinals have lost three of Lynn’s last four starts, with Lynn sporting a hefty 6.49 ERA in his last five starts.

Lynn has only faced the Reds once before, in a relief role late last season.

The Cardinals are hanging in the playoff chase despite not getting much sock lately from a couple of key offensive components, outfielders Matt Holliday (just 2-for-30 before a pair of hits in his last two at-bats on Wednesday vs. the Astros) and Carlos Beltran (bothered recently by a sore hand and only 4-for-27 before doubling in his final at-bat on Wednesday against Houston). The Redbirds also remain minus 1B Lance Berkman, who went on the DL due to right knee inflammation on August 3 and likely to begin a brief rehab assignment this weekend with AAA-Memphis before being recalled at the end of August.

After winning four of six against the Reds in April, St. Louis was swept in a three-game series at Great American Ballpark just after the All-Star break, one of those Latos’ aforementioned first-ever win vs. St. Louis.

The teams are not slated to meet again until a season-ending series at Busch Stadium October 1-2-3.

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Friday

August 24, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Mets are 0-11 since June 17, 2011 as a home favorite with a total over 7 after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $1343 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Blue Jays are 0-11-1 OU since May 03, 2011 when playing a night game as a road dog with a total over 7 after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1100 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Astros are 0-16 since June 05, 2011 when Jordan Lyles starts as a road dog for a net profit of $1600 when playing against.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Angels are 11-0 (3.1 ppg) in the regular season since August 2007 after a game with at least 45 at bats.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Rangers are 7-0 since April 09, 2011 when Matt Harrison starts after more strike outs than hits allowed and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $725.

-- The Giants are 0-11 OU since May 08, 2011 when Ryan Vogelsong starts at home within 20 cents of pickem for a net profit of $1100 when playing the under.

[StarDust Bum]

Cardinals-Reds begin 3-game set Friday

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (68-56)

at CINCINNATI REDS (76-50)


First pitch: Friday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Cincinnati -125, St. Louis +115, Total: 8

The surging Cardinals look to put a big dent in the Reds division lead when the two NL Central rivals begin a three-game set on Friday night.

St. Louis enters this series 7 games behind Cincinnati in the standings, but the Cards have been rolling, scoring 24 runs during a three-game sweep of Houston. They will send All-Star Lance Lynn to the hill on Friday to make his first career start against the Reds. Lynn did face his opponent three times in relief last year, holding them to one run in four innings, tallying eight strikeouts and zero walks. Cincinnati counters with Mat Latos, who has led his team to a 16-9 record this year, but he has been atrocious in five career starts versus St. Louis, going 1-3 with a 9.75 ERA and 1.96 WHIP. Considering the Cardinals are 51-30 (.630) in the past two seasons against starters that allow 5.5 hits or less per start, and currently lead the majors with a .275 BA, the pick here is underdog ST. LOUIS to prevail.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also supports the Cardinals:

Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (ST. LOUIS) - revenging 2 straight losses where team scored 2 or less runs, a good team (54% to 62%) playing a team with a winning record. (35-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.6%, +26.3 units. Rating = 3*).

Lynn (13-5, 3.73 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) has led his team to a 16-8 record this year, including 9-5 on the road, where he is personally 7-2. Lynn has been a strikeout machine in his first season as a regular starter, mowing down 143 batters in 142.1 innings. However, Lynn has been shaky in his past five starts, going 1-1 with a 6.49 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. He labored only 4.1 innings in his last start versus Pittsburgh, allowing three runs, four hits and three walks, while striking out eight batters. If he fails to go deep in this contest, the Cardinals bullpen might not be able to pick him up, sporting a 4.05 ERA and converting just 64% of save chances this year.

Latos (10-3, 3.56 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) has been stronger at home this year, going 6-2 (team is 11-3) with a 3.14 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Latos has also been tremendous in his past five starts, going 2-0 with a 1.21 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, but he wasn’t great in his last start against the Cubs, allowing four runs (2 ER) in eight innings of work. He’s faced St. Louis twice this season with a combined pitching line of 10.2 IP, 13 H, 10 ER, 6 BB, 11 K. Although Latos has pitched at least seven innings in his past four starts, it’s not imperative for him to log a ton of innings considering the Reds bullpen leads the majors with a 2.78 ERA, which dips to 2.27 at home with a stellar 1.08 WHIP and 20 saves in 26 chances (77%). The Reds have beaten the Cardinals four straight times, but all three games of their sweep on July 13-July 15 were very close with results of 5-3, 3-2 and 4-2.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, August 24

Hot pitchers
-- Samardzija has a 2.84 RA in his last three starts.
-- Kendrick is 2-0, 0.00 (15 IP) in his last two starts.
-- Niese is 3-1, 1.91 in his last four starts.
-- Latos is 3-0, 1.91 in his last six starts.
-- Stults is 2-0, 2.84 in his last three starts. Arizona won last four Corbin starts (3-0, 2.77).
-- Billingsley is 6-0, 1.30 in his last six starts. Former Dodger Eovaldi is 2-1, 2.16 in his last three starts.

-- Villanueva has a 2.79 RA in his last three starts, but no wins.
-- Lester is 2-0, 1.38 in his last couple starts.
-- Moore is 4-0, 1.16 in his last five starts.
-- Deduno is 4-1, 2.73 in his last six starts. Harrison is 2-1, 3.46 in his last four outings.
-- Vargas is 6-1, 2.01 in his last eight starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Pomeranz is 0-4, 7.36 in his last seven starts.
-- Jackson is 1-2, 4.56 in his last four starts.
-- WRodriguez is 0-3, 5.47 in four starts for the Pirates. Fiers lost his last two starts, allowing 12 runs in seven IP.
-- Lyles is 0-5, 8.63 in his last eight starts.
-- Lynn is 1-1, 6.49 in his last five starts.
-- Vogelsong lost his last two starts, allowing 11 runs in 5.2 IP. Sheets is 0-2, 8.25 in his last couple starts.

-- Greinke is 1-2, 6.19 in five starts for the Angels. Porcello is 2-3, 6.23 in his last five starts.
-- Britton is 0-1, 13.50 in his last three starts.
-- Kluber is 0-2, 9.16 in his four starts. Sabathia had a 5.34 RA in his last four starts before going on the DL.
-- BChen is 2-4, 6.97 in his last ten starts.
-- Parker is 1-3, 4.26 in his last four starts.
-- Peavy is 0-2, 4.50 in his last three starts.

Hot Teams
-- Colorado won nine of its last eleven games.
-- Nationals won five of their last seven games.
-- Brewers won five of their last seven games.
-- Cardinals won four of their last five games. Reds won ten of their last fourteen games.
-- Padres won their last four games, allowing nine runs. Arizona won six of its last eight games.
-- Giants won six of their last seven games.

-- Detroit won six of its last eight games. Angels won their last three games, scoring 26 runs.
-- Orioles won eight of their last eleven home games.
-- Royals won six of their last nine games.
-- Tampa Bay won 19 of its last 25 games. A's won six of their last eight.
-- Rangers won five of their last six games.
-- Seattle won its last eight games, allowing 13 runs. White Sox won five of their last six home games.

Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost six of their last seven games.
-- Pirates lost ten of their last fourteen games.
-- Mets lost 13 of their last 17 games. Astros lost nine of their last ten.
-- Phillies are 4-5 in their last nine games.
-- Dodgers lost five of their last seven games. Miami is 6-9 in its last 15.
-- Braves lost five of their last six games.

-- Blue Jays lost eight of their last nine games.
-- Indians lost their last eight games; they scored five runs in last four games. Bronx Bombers lost four of their last five games.
-- Red Sox lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Twins lost 11 of their last 13 games.

Totals
-- Four of last five Colorado games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Washington games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Milwaukee games stayed under the total. 12 of last 16 Pittsburgh games went over the total.
-- Five of Mets' last six games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last nine Cincinnati games went over the total.
-- Five of last six San Diego road games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Dodger games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last twelve San Francisco games went over the total.

-- 16 of last 21 Angel games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last ten Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten Kansas City games stayed under the total.
-- 23 of last 32 Tampa Bay games stayed under total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in Minnesota's last eight games.
-- Under is 8-1-1 in last ten Seattle games.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Friday, August 24

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Toronto - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore -107 500
Baltimore - Under 8.5 500

NY Yankees - 7:05 PM ET Cleveland +206 500
Cleveland - Over 9 500

Washington - 7:05 PM ET Philadelphia +110 500
Philadelphia - Over 8 500

LA Angels - 7:05 PM ET Detroit -105 500
Detroit - Under 9 500

Milwaukee - 7:05 PM ET Milwaukee -105 500
Pittsburgh - Over 7.5 500

Kansas City - 7:10 PM ET Boston -174 500
Boston - Over 9 500

Oakland - 7:10 PM ET Tampa Bay -175 500
Tampa Bay - Over 7 500

Houston - 7:10 PM ET Houston +200 500
NY Mets - Over 7.5 500

St. Louis - 7:10 PM ET St. Louis +111 500
Cincinnati - Under 8 500

Minnesota - 8:05 PM ET Minnesota +206 500
Texas - Over 10 500

Seattle - 8:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox -179 500
Chi. White Sox - Under 8 500

San Diego - 9:40 PM ET San Diego +165 500
Arizona - Over 9.5 500

Miami - 10:10 PM ET Miami +196 500
LA Dodgers - Under 7 500

Atlanta - 10:15 PM ET San Francisco -118 500
San Francisco - Under 7 500