The Bum's Sunday's MLB Best Bets !!

[StarDust Bum]

Freefalling Red Sox Finish Set At Yankees

The Boston Red Sox are quickly running out of time to make a playoff run. The task doesn’t get any easier on Sunday night as they conclude a weekend series at the hated New York Yankees.

The Don Best odds screen will have the opening lines shortly and ESPN will have the national telecast beginning at 8:00 p.m. (ET). The pitching matchup is Josh Beckett against Hiroki Kuroda.

This series opened Friday in the Bronx with Boston again coming out on the losing end (6-4). Saturday’s Game 2 was still pending with the struggling Jon Lester a 110 ‘dog against David Phelps and New York. The total in that one was 9 ½.

The Red Sox are 3-7 against the Yankees this year. The ‘over’ is 7-3 (5-1 in the last six).

Boston is on a ‘highway to hell’ this season and manager Bobby Valentine is the bus driver. There was a recent report that many players met with ownership to have him fired in late July, and the Bobby V. experiment is clearly not working.

The Red Sox are now 6.5 games out of a wild-card spot and trailing multiple teams. It’s hard to believe this underachieving bunch has MLB’s second-highest payroll, only trailing the Yanks.

Having Beckett (5-10, 5.19 ERA) on the mound isn’t exactly comforting to Red Sox fans. He was absolutely rocked in his last two
starts, 14 earned runs (five homers) over 10 1/3 innings vs. Texas and at Baltimore. Boston is just 2-9 in his last 11 starts overall (6.09 ERA).

The 32-year-old right-hander doesn’t possess a great fastball anymore, with his strikeout rate 6.53 after being at least 8.16 the last five years. He got hit hard in his only meeting against the Yankees this year on July 6 (six earned over five innings).

Beckett has had some prior success pitching at Yankee Stadium, 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA in two starts last year.

The Yankees keep chugging along despite several key injuries. They lead the AL East by six games over Baltimore and are 8-2 in their last 10, 4-1 during this homestand.

Kuroda (11-8, 3.06 ERA) was a guy Boston thought about signing as a free agent from the Dodgers, but ultimately didn’t want to pay his price. He has been especially good his last six starts (1.44 ERA) with New York going 4-2.

The ‘under’ is 6-0 in those outings, including 4-0 at home where he has a 2.31 ERA for the year.

One of Kuroda’s recent losses was at home vs. Boston on July 29. He allowed two earned runs over eight innings, but was outdueled by Felix Doubront and the Red Sox bullpen in a 3-2 loss. Kuroda struggled at Fenway (six earned over 5 2/3 innings) in his other meeting vs. Boston this year (although New York still won, 10-8).

New York first baseman Mark Teixeira (wrist) missed Friday’s game and was doubtful for Saturday. The team continues to find other players to step up, with Alex Rodriguez (hand) also out, showing an overall desire and fortitude that Boston lacks.

Don’t end your weekend without trying out the Don Best Pro Odds! It’s your only choice for all the best betting news and information.

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Sunday

August 19, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Rangers are 16-0 since May 28, 2011 when Matt Harrison starts as a 140+ favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $1600.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Phillies are 13-0-1 OU since July 16, 2011 when playing a day game with a total under 10 when they are off a win in which they never trailed in a night game for a net profit of $1300 when playing the over.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Pirates are 0-12 since June 05, 2009 when Jeff Karstens starts as a road dog after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $1200 when playing against.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Mets are 13-1 OU (5.2 rpg) since May 14, 2005 when playing a day game after scoring 3 runs or less and winning as a dog.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Indians are 8-0 since April 15, 2011 when Justin Masterson starts within 20 cents of pickem after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $823.

-- The Cardinals are 6-0 since April 20, 2011 when Jaime Garcia starts at home after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start for a net profit of $600

[StarDust Bum]

Red Sox-Yankees play rubber match Sunday

BOSTON RED SOX (59-62)

at NEW YORK YANKEES (71-49)


First pitch: Sunday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -150, Boston +140, Total: 9

After splitting the first two matchups of their series, the Red Sox and Yankees wrap up their three-game set Sunday night in the Bronx.

Boston, which still sits three games under .500, will send struggling right-hander Josh Beckett to the mound on Sunday. The Red Sox are 7-13 in Beckett’s 20 starts this season, including 2-9 since May 31, a span in which Beckett has a 6.09 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. The Yankees will counter with Hiroki Kuroda, who has pitched the Yankees to wins in eight of his past 10 starts, posting a 2.42 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in this span. Kuroda has also been dominant at Yankee Stadium this season, going 8-4 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. This is too much of a pitching mismatch to play on the plus money here, especially since the Yankees are 14-3 facing AL pitchers with a WHIP between 1.30 and 1.40 this season. Take the chalk here and expect Kuroda and NEW YORK to capture this series.

This two-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Yankees:

Play On - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (N.Y. YANKEES) - with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, excellent power team - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game on the season. (111-44 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.6%, +41.6 units. Rating = 2*).

Even with Saturday’s 4-1 win, Boston has been struggling lately with seven losses in its past 11 games. The Red Sox are an identical 4-7 against New York this season too. Beckett (5-10, 5.19 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) has been atrocious in his two August starts, allowing 14 runs on 14 hits -- including five homers -- in just 10.1 innings of work. He was also tagged in his one outing versus the Yankees this year, allowing six runs on eight hits in just five frames of a 10-8 loss. That worsened Beckett’s career numbers to a 5.13 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 30 starts versus the Yankees. However, the Red Sox are 19-11 in these 30 starts, with Beckett carrying a strong personal record of 15-8 against his bitter rival. With Beckett averaging a mere 4.3 innings per start in his past three outings, Boston’s bullpen will more than likely be called upon to pitch a few innings. However, Red Sox relievers have a 3.33 ERA in 2012, which is even more impressive on the road (2.59 ERA).

Kuroda (11-8, 3.06 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) was masterful in his last outing, blanking the mighty Rangers with a two-hit shutout, striking out five and walking just two batters. He hasn’t been great in three career starts against the Red Sox, posting a 4.35 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. However, he stymied them in the Bronx on July 29, holding Boston to just two runs in eight innings and taking a no-decision in a 3-2 defeat. But the Yankees rank second in the AL with a 38-24 home record (.613), including 9-5 with Kuroda on the mound. He averages 6.6 innings per start overall and 7.0 at home, but is confident in turning the ball over to his New York bullpen that carries a 3.32 ERA with 38 saves in 47 chances (81%) this season. One major injury for the Yankees is 1B Mark Teixeira, who is questionable to play on Sunday because of a wrist injury.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, August 19

Hot pitchers
-- Latos is 3-0, 1.31 in his last five starts.
-- GGonzalez is 3-1, 3.68 in his last five starts.
-- Billingsley is 5-0, 1.56 in his last five starts.
-- JJohnson has a 2.38 RA in his last three starts.
-- Richard is 2-1, 2.60 in his last four starts.

-- Fister is 3-0, 2.30 in his last four starts. WChen is 3-1, 3.47 in his last four.
-- Guthrie is 2-0, 0.00 (15 IP) in his last two starts. Quintana is 1-1, 2.63 in his last couple starts.
-- Moore is 3-1, 1.10 in his last five starts.
-- Masterson is 2-0, 2.77 in his last couple starts.
-- Deduno is 4-0, 2.67 in his last five starts.
-- Kuroda is 3-1, 1.44 in his last six starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Volstad is 0-3, 6.05 in his last four starts; Cubs are 1-11 in his starts.
-- Hefner is 2-3, 5.67 in six starts this season.
-- Minor is 0-2, 3.24 in his last three starts.
-- Galarraga is 0-3, 6.64 in four starts for Houston. Kennedy is 0-2, 9.90 in his last couple starts.
-- Kendrick is 1-2, 4.45 in his last five starts. Wolf is 0-3, 6.56 in his last four outings.
-- Karstens is 1-1, 4.70 in his last four starts. JGarcia was 0-2, 7.20 in his last three starts before going on the DL.
-- Pomeranz is 0-4, 7.82 in his last six starts.
-- Vogelsong is 2-2, 5.73 in his last four starts.

-- Harrison is 1-3, 4.94 in his last five starts. Alvarez is 0-3, 6.48 in his last three outings.
-- Greinke is 1-1, 5.54 in four starts for the Angels.
-- Parker is 0-3, 7.25 in his last four starts.
-- Beavan is 1-1, 5.03 in his last three starts.
-- Beckett is 0-3, 8.31 in his last five starts.

Hot Teams
-- Nationals won 13 of their last 17 games.
-- Braves won 19 of their last 24 games. Dodgers won seven of last ten.
-- Reds won seven of their last nine games.
-- Cardinals won 11 of their last 15 home games.
-- Milwaukee won seven its last eight home games.
-- Arizona is 9-7 in its last sixteen road games.
-- Marlins won three of their last four games. Colorado won four of its last six.
-- Giants won seven of their last nine road games.

-- Detroit won 11 of its last 14 home games. Orioles won ten of their last fourteen games overall.
-- Bronx won eight of its last eleven games.
-- White Sox won eight of their last 12 road games. Royals are 12-6 in their last eighteen games.
-- Tampa Bay won 15 of its last 20 games.
-- A's won their last three games, allowing nine runs.
-- Mariners won six of their last seven games.

Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost 14 of their last 18 games.
-- Pirates lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Mets lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Phillies are 5-7 in their last 12 road games.
-- Astros lost 14 of their last 18 games- they fired their manager last nite.
-- Padres lost six of their last seven games.

-- Red Sox lost eleven of their last seventeen games.
-- Rangers are 7-9 in their last sixteen road games. Blue Jays lost 16 of their last 20 games.
-- Indians lost 15 of their last 19 games.
-- Angels lost 12 of their last 17 games.
-- Twins lost seven of their last eight games.

Totals
-- Eight of Mets' last eleven games went over the total.
-- Over is 8-3-2 in Cincinnati's last thirteen home games
-- Over is 12-5-2 in last nineteen Dodger road games.
-- Six of last seven Houston games went over the total.
-- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Milwaukee games.
-- Ten of last twelve Pirate games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-2-3 in last twelve games at Coors Field.
-- Five of last six Vogelsong starts went over the total.

-- Under is 15-7-1 in last twenty-three Texas games.
-- Under is 10-3-1 in last fourteen Baltimore road games.
-- Under is 22-9 in Boston's last 31 road games.
-- 11 of White Sox' last 16 road games stayed under.
-- 11 of last 14 Cleveland road games went over.
-- 20 of last 28 Tampa Bay games stayed under total.
-- Under is 12-5-2 in last nineteen games at Safeco Field.

Umpires
-- Chi-Cin-- Visiting team won six of last seven Diaz games.
-- SF-SD-- Four of last five O'Nora games stayed under total.
-- Az-Hst-- Four of last five Demuth games stayed under.
-- NY-Wsh-- All ten Baker games stayed under the total.
-- Phil-Mil-- Favorites won eight of last nine Muchlinski games.
-- LA-Atl-- Last four Wegner games went over the total.
-- Pitt-StL-- Nine of last thirteen Hoye games went over.
-- Mia-Col-- Visiting team won 12 of 16 Estabrook games.

-- Tex-Tor-- Four of last five BWelke games went over.
-- Bos-NY-- Nine of last eleven Meals games stayed under.
-- Blt-Det-- Under is 10-5-2 in last 17 Carapazza games.
-- Chi-KC-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Blaser games.
-- Cle-A's-- Home team won Fletcher's last four games behind dish.
-- TB-LA-- Seven of last eight Wolf games stayed under.
-- Min-Sea-- Under is 8-3-2 in last thirteen Cuzzi games.

[StarDust Bum]

Record the last 8 days:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

08/18/12 19-*11-*2 63.33% +*4375 Detail
08/17/12 17-*12-*1 58.62% +*2700 Detail
08/16/12 14-*8-*0 63.64% +*2690 Detail
08/15/12 16-*10-*0 61.54% +*2630 Detail
08/14/12 17-*13-*0 56.67% +*1740 Detail
08/13/12 12-*10-*0 54.55% +*885 Detail
08/12/12 15-*13-*1 53.57% +*1185 Detail
08/11/12 15-*15-*0 50.00% +*270 Detail

Sunday, August 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Baltimore - 1:05 PM ET Detroit -163 500
Detroit - Under 8 500

Texas - 1:07 PM ET Texas -169 500
Toronto - Over 8.5 500

Chi. Cubs - 1:10 PM ET Chi. Cubs +242 500
Cincinnati - Under 8.5 500

LA Dodgers - 1:35 PM ET Atlanta -108 500
Atlanta - Under 7.5 500

NY Mets - 1:35 PM ET NY Mets +192 500
Washington - Under 8 500

Arizona - 2:05 PM ET Houston +187 500
Houston - Under 9 500

Philadelphia - 2:10 PM ET Philadelphia +110 500
Milwaukee - Over 9 500

Chi. White Sox - 2:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox -105 500
Kansas City - Over 8.5 500

Pittsburgh - 2:15 PM ET St. Louis -156 500
St. Louis - Over 8 500

Miami - 3:10 PM ET Colorado +128 500
Colorado - Under 9.5 500

Tampa Bay - 3:35 PM ET Tampa Bay +126 500
LA Angels - Under 7.5 500

Cleveland - 4:05 PM ET Cleveland +119 500
Oakland - Over 7.5 500

San Francisco - 4:05 PM ET San Francisco -130 500
San Diego - Over 6.5 500

Minnesota - 4:10 PM ET Seattle -120 500
Seattle - Under 7.5 500

Boston - 8:00 PM ET NY Yankees -165 500
NY Yankees - Under 9 500


Some very nice dogs today........Good Luck !