The Bum's Thursday's MLB Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Rays Make Quick Return Trip To Anaheim

Score If you know someone who doesn't really get interested in baseball until the playoffs begin, tell them to tune into the series commencing in Anaheim on Thursday. It may not be the postseason yet, but results from the four upcoming games between the Los Angeles Angels and Tampa Bay Rays could very well determine who does, or does not, get there.

Welcome to the American League pre-playoffs and a clash between a pair of clubs whose best hopes right now for a spot in the actual postseason are by claiming one of the two wild card slots. The Rays and Angels bookend a 5-team bunch only 2.5-games apart vying for those spots heading into Wednesday's action. Tampa Bay and the Baltimore Orioles are deadlocked at the top of that list while the Oakland Athletics and Detroit Tigers are knotted between them and the Halos.

There's plenty of great pitching in store in the four games at the Big A, starting with a battle between Tampa's David Price and LA's Dan Haren. Early odds for the series opener (10:05 p.m. ET) had the Rays favored in the -115 to -120 range with a 7½-run total ('under' -120).

Price was one of five pitchers to have reached the 15-win plateau before play got underway Wednesday, and the Rays were 15-8 behind their lefty for the year (+4.6 units). He could easily have reached the 18-win mark or higher by now with a little more offensive help along the way. Price has won seven straight on his personal ledger, and the three no-decisions in his 10 most recent starts saw him pitch to a 1.63 ERA only for the Rays to eventually lose those games.

The Angels certainly didn't have an answer for him at Tropicana Field when the clubs met in April. Price went the distance with a 5-hit whitewashing in a 5-0 win as $1.50 chalk.

Of course, that was during the Angels' slumbering start to the campaign, and four days before rookie phenom Mike Trout arrived to jumpstart the lineup. The problem is that while the Halos offense has been far more potent with Trout at the top of the order, pitching has been a big problem so far in August. Responsibility for a 4-9 record in the first 13 games of the month sits squarely on the shoulders of the staff with the opposition scoring 90 runs in the stretch (6.9 rpg).

Haren will be looking to rebound from a rough outing at home against Seattle last week when the Mariners tallied seven runs (5 earned) in his short 3-1/3 inning session. He looked fine in his three previous starts after he came off his first career disabled list stint, working six frames each assignment and allowing four runs combined.

One of those contests was a win vs. the Rays in Anaheim on July 27, bringing his lifetime record to 7-3 with a 2.60 ERA against Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay has ruled this series dating back to April 2011. The Rays have won five of six from the Angels this year, including two of three in Anaheim a few weeks ago, and nine of the last 11. All six collisions this year have stayed 'under' the total.

Neither team is reporting any new injuries a day before the series was set to begin. However, each club was involved in Wednesday contests that were still pending, so keep an eye on the Don Best injury report for updates prior to Thursday's affair. The Angels were 170 favorites at home against the Cleveland Indians and the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona, who was making his season debut following a suspension. Tampa Bay was getting +125 on the road in Seattle opposite Mariners ace Felix Hernandez.

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Thursday

August 16, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Dodgers are 13-0 since April 18, 2011 after a win in which their starter pitched at least 8 innings and they scored at least five runs for a net profit of $1491.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The White Sox are 0-13-1 OU since June 07, 2011 when playing a night game after a win in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks in a night game for a net profit of $1300 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Braves are 12-0 since June 03, 2010 when Kris Medlen starts after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $1285.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Yankees are 23-3 (3.8 rpg) at home vs an American League opponent when they are off a win in which they scored three or fewer runs and their opponentÕs starter lasted fewer than eight innings.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Cardinals are 12-0 since May 18, 2011 when Kyle Lohse starts as a home 140+ favorite vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $1200.

-- The Rangers are 7-0 since July 14, 2011 when Derek Holland starts on the road after a quality start at home for a net profit of $710.

[StarDust Bum]

Rays look to heat up bats Thursday at L.A.


TAMPA BAY RAYS (63-54)

at LOS ANGELES ANGELS (62-56)


First pitch: Thursday, 10:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Tampa Bay -125, Los Angeles +115, Total: 7½

Despite having a perfect game thrown against them on Wednesday, the Tampa Bay Rays, still 7-2 in their past nine games, will continue their 10-game road trip on Thursday night with the start of a four-game set against the Angels.

The Rays enter this game as road favorites behind starter David Price, who has a 15-4 record, 2.50 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 2012. He has been even better lately with a 2.05 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his past three starts. He faces Dan Haren, who is amid a disappointing year, sporting a 4.68 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 21 starts. The Rays have dominated the Angels as of late, winning five of six meetings this year and posting a whopping 9-3 mark at Los Angeles over the past three seasons. The past two games these two teams played in late July were both shutouts in favor of the Rays. As just slight favorites, play on TAMPA BAY in this one.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Rays:

Play On - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TAMPA BAY) - well rested bullpen - threw <= 2 innings in each of the last 3 games, in August games. (62-31 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%, +34.2 units. Rating = 3*).

The Rays enter this game as the losers of two straight, but prior to that won seven in a row. And Price has been giving the Rays a great chance to win every time out lately. He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start since June 13, a span of 10 starts in which he is 7-0 with a 1.89 ERA, with opposing batters hitting .194 against him. Price usually manages to go deep into games with 6.7 innings per start. But if the left-hander struggles, he’s supported by a strong bullpen that has a 3.01 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 2012, though it dips to 3.98 ERA on the road. Similarly, Price is not as effective on the road, but he is still good outside of Tampa Bay with an 8-2 record, 3.20 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. This includes a 6-0 mark and 2.50 ERA in his past eight road starts. In Price’s career, he is 3-2 (team 5-2) against the Angels with a strong 3.48 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. And there is a chance he will face an Albert Pujols-less lineup, as the Angels slugger has been bothered by a leg injury.

Haren has been unable to maintain any sort of groove this season. Although he had thrown two consecutive six-inning, one-run performances, he could not maintain that success his last time out when he yielded seven runs (five earned) in just 3.1 innings versus the Mariners. His best hope in this game is his career-long dominance of the Rays, against whom he is 7-3 (team 9-3) with a 2.60 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. The team is just 8-13 in Haren’s 2012 outings, including 4-8 at home. However, he lasts 6.0 innings per start. That will leave three innings to the Los Angeles bullpen that has a poor 4.02 ERA in 2012, but an impressive 2.60 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP at home.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, August 16

Hot pitchers
-- Burnett is 4-1, 2.35 in his last five starts.
-- Braves are 3-0 when Medlen starts (2-0, 1.62). Marquis is 2-0, 1.76 in his last couple starts.
-- Lohse is 6-1, 2.41 in his last ten starts.

-- Buchholz is 2-0, 1.85 in his last five starts. Tillman is 4-1, 4.40 in his.
-- Price is 7-0, 2.13 in his last ten starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Blanton is 0-1, 4.91 in two starts for Dodgers.
-- Bailey is 1-1, 9.00 in his last three starts. Harvey is 0-3, 5.29 in his last three starts.
-- Lee is 1-1, 4.24 in his last four starts. Estrada is 0-2, 5.08 in his last six.
-- Cahill is 1-2, 4.21 in his last four starts.
-- Nolasco is 1-5, 6.61 in his last seven starts. White is 0-3, 6.67 in his last seven starts.

-- Holland is 0-1, 5.76 in his last three starts. Nova is 1-3, 7.13 in his last six outings.
-- Liriano is 0-0, 5.65 in three starts for Chicago. Laffey is 1-2, 8.18 in his last four starts.
-- Hochevar is 1-2, 10.18 in his last four starts. Straily is 0-0, 5.06 in two MLB starts.
-- Haren is 2-2, 6.31 in his last five starts.

Hot Teams
-- Dodgers won 12 of their last 16 road games.
-- Phillies won four of their last six games.
-- Reds won 11 of their last 13 home games.
-- Braves won 16 of their last 21 games.
-- Cardinals won 15 of their last 18 home games.
-- Colorado won its last three games, scoring 24 runs.

-- Orioles won nine of their last eleven games.
-- Bronx both won seven of its last eight games.
-- White Sox won seven of their last nine road games.
-- Royals are 10-5 in their last fifteen games.
-- Tampa Bay won 12 of its last 17 games, but lost last two.

Cold Teams
-- Pirates lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Padres lost three of their last four games.
-- Miami lost 19 of its last 28 games.
-- Mets lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Milwaukee lost five of its last six games.
-- Arizona lost eight of its last eleven games.

-- Red Sox lost ten of their last fourteen games.
-- Rangers are 5-8 in their last thirteen road games.
-- Blue Jays lost 14 of their last 17 games.
-- Oakland is 5-9 in its last fourteen games.
-- Angels lost nine of their last fourteen games, but won last two.

Totals
-- Over is 11-4-1 in last sixteen Dodger road games.
-- Seven of last eleven San Diego road games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Cincinnati games stayed under total.
-- Last five Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Arizona road games went over total.
-- Over is 7-1-1 in last nine games at Coors Field.

-- Four of last five Bronx home games stayed under total.
-- 10 of White Sox' last 13 road games stayed under.
-- Under is 21-7 in Boston's last 28 road games.
-- Nine of last twelve Kansas City games stayed under.
-- 19 of last 25 Tampa Bay games stayed under total.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, August 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Texas - 1:05 PM ET NY Yankees -127 500
NY Yankees - Over 10 500

LA Dodgers - 4:05 PM ET Pittsburgh -126 500
Pittsburgh - Over 7.5 500

Boston - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore +120 500
Baltimore - Under 8.5 500

Chi. White Sox - 7:07 PM ET Chi. White Sox -125 500
Toronto - Over 8.5 500

San Diego - 7:10 PM ET San Diego +186 500
Atlanta - Under 8 500

NY Mets - 7:10 PM ET NY Mets +136 500
Cincinnati - Over 8.5 500

Philadelphia - 8:10 PM ET Philadelphia -116 500
Milwaukee - Over 7.5 500

Oakland - 8:10 PM ET Oakland +106 500
Kansas City - Under 8.5 500

Arizona - 8:15 PM ET St. Louis -141 500
St. Louis - Under 8 500

Miami - 8:40 PM ET Miami +111 500
Colorado - Under 10.5 500

Tampa Bay - 10:05 PM ET Tampa Bay -109 500
LA Angels - Over 7.5 500