The Bum's Monday's MLB Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Monday

August 13, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Dodgers are 9-0 since June 05, 2011 as a road dog when they are off a game in which they scored at least three runs more runs off the bullpen than they did off their opponent’s starter, if they did not overcome at leats a 5 run deficit to win for a net profit of $1146.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Rays are 0-10-1 OU since April 12, 2011 when playing a night game on the road after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers and allowed more than 1 run for a net profit of $1000 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Giants are 0-11 OU since May 08, 2011 when Ryan Vogelsong starts at home within 20 cents of pickem for a net profit of $1100 when playing the under.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Nationals are 0-19 (-3.1 rpg) since July 15, 2007 as a road dog after a non-shutout loss where they left less than 13 men on base individually and their opponent left less than 10.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Pirates are 10-0 OU since August 15, 2010 when Jeff Karstens starts in August for a net profit of $1000 when playing the over.

-- The Pirates are 0-7 OU since April 28, 2011 when Jeff Karstens starts within 20 cents of pickem after a quality start for a net profit of $700 when playing the under.

[StarDust Bum]

Hot and Not

August 13, 2012

The dog days of summer are clearly upon us now with most barely glancing at the daily box scores to instead tune into all the preseason college football and NFL talk. Still, there's a World Series pennant on the line, and the following is a look at what some of the best and worst teams did over the course of the last week to improve their chances of qualifying for the playoffs.

$$$-Makers

Tampa Bay Rays (6-0, $600): The Rays began laying the groundwork in getting back into the playoff picture once the calendar year turned to August, as manager Joe Maddon's squad will enter its series opener in Seattle Monday night having proved triumphant in eight of their 10 played games since ($430). Evan Longoria's reinsertion into the line-up has sparked the offense with Tampa tallying an average of 6.2 runs per game over the course of the last week. Now just five-games out in the AL East and owners of the overall wild card, this club now looks poised for a return trip to the postseason.

On The Docket: The Rays will close out their 10-game road trip with three in Seattle before heading to Anaheim for a four-game series filled with playoff ramifications; Tampa Bay checks in 30-25 ($875) away from "The Trop" and 15-7 vs. AL West opposition on the year.

Washington Nationals (6-1, $514): This is really starting to get old and play out like a broken record, but the Nationals are by far one of the best teams in the National league and maybe in the entire league for that matter! While the latter remains to be seen, you can't find much wrong with manager Davey Johnson's ball club who went down fighting but ultimately had their eight-game win streak snapped in the desert on Sunday. Still, the series win was the team's third in a row since shockingly dropping two of three to the Phillies at home at the beginning of the month.

On The Docket: Ryan Zimmerman and his mates will close out their 10-game roady by the Bay in San Francisco where they'll deal with the NL West leading Giants. They'll then return home for a weekend set with the struggling Mets before hosting the Braves for an intriguing series. Washington's 31-22 vs. +.500 opponents ($800) to date!

San Diego Padres (5-1, $482): If not for letting a 5-0 lead get away from them in Sunday's series finale in Pittsburgh, the Padres would enter this week's action the proud owners of a seven-game win streak. Be that as it may, Chase Headley and his teammates have banked some serious coin for their investing backers having secured a $596 return on investment through their L/9 games played. In doing so, San Diego now finds itself two or three more underdog wins away from getting back into the black for the season!

On The Docket: The squad's tough stretch of games continues this week with four set to go at Turner Field - a venue they've split their L/10 visits to - before returning home to battle the division rival Giants - a team they're just 3-6 (-$229) against in 2012.

Honorable Mentions: Atlanta Braves (4-2, $191), Baltimore Orioles (5-2, $189), Texas Rangers (4-2, $161), San Francisco Giants (4-3, $89), New York Yankees (4-3, $29)

$$$-Burners

Los Angeles Angels (2-4, -$562): What a crippling week it was for the Angels who dropped back-to-back series to divisional opponents to fall eight-games out in the AL West race. On top of that, they lost their positioning atop the wild card standings and now trail both the Rays, Orioles, and Athletics. With Mike Trout and more so Mark Trumbo's overall output coming back down to earth, the Halos are once again struggling to score runs having scored four or less in four of their six games played last week.

On The Docket: Los Angeles will attempt to turn it around in its three games with also struggling Cleveland before setting its sights on a crucial four-game home series with the streaking Rays through the weekend. LA checks in a combined 30-32 vs. the AL Central and AL East this season.

Chicago Cubs (1-6, -$464): With Jed and Theo shipping off a bulk of their veteran talent at the trade deadline, the Cubs every day roster is littered with a who's who of inexperienced talent. Since the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline, Chicago has mustered just one win through 11 tries (-$860), and things don't look to be getting better anytime soon. While it most likely won't challenge the Houston Astros for the worst overall $$$-mark at season's end, Chicago should come awfully close!

On The Docket: The Cubbies will get to prove me wrong right out of this week's chute with three games scheduled to go versus the Astros before hitting the road to once again go up against the NL Central leading Cincinnati Reds at the GAB; Chicago's dropped each of its L/7 games played away from Wrigley Field and stands 16-42 as a visitor overall (-$1798).

Toronto Blue Jays (1-5, -$339): Unfortunately, 2012 will always go down in history as the season the injury bug had a score to settle with the Toronto Blue Jays. At first, it only preyed upon the Blue Jays pitching staff having taken bites out of Sergio Santos, Kyle Drabek, Drew Hutchinson, and Brandon Morrow, but now, he's honed in on the Jays' bats having recently sent Jose Bautista, Adam Lind, J.P Arencibia, Brett Lawrie and Colby Rasmus to the pine. Still, Toronto has won 54 games on the year which is more than 11 other teams can say that haven't nearly felt the wrath of all those injuries.

On The Docket: Another rough week is in store for this walking wounded ball club with a pair of first place teams paying the Rogers Centre a visit in the forms of the Chicago White Sox and Texas Rangers; the BJs are 32-42 (-901) versus +.500 opposition on the year.

Dishonorable Mentions: Houston Astros (2-5, -$236), Minnesota Twins (2-4, -$186), Detroit Tigers (3-4, -$126), Cleveland Indians (3-4, -$75)

[StarDust Bum]

Weekly Betting Notes

August 13, 2012

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a lot of support in the baseball community just because the prospect of seeing them make the playoffs for the first time in 19 years would be good for the game. When a conversation about the Pirates arises, it usually goes like this, "Yeah, I’d love to see them make it, but I don’t think they can keep up their pace."

The nay-sayers might be right, The Bucs have hit the brick wall and it’s anyone guess if they have something left in the tank hard to get their second wind back for a September run. They’re still 14 games above .500 and have a 2.5 game lead for the last Wild Card spot, but that lead is more attributed to the teams below them floundering.

Over their last 14 games, they’ve gone 6-8 and missed golden opportunities along the way. The NL Central-leading Reds had gone through a funk and Pittsburgh matched them loss for loss and when the two teams faced each other, Cincinnati took two of three. The Padres have proven to pesky against the Pirates for some reason over the last few years, but they’re still the woeful Padres. A team like that should not be going into PNC Park and sticking it to the Bucs, taking two of three like they did over the weekend.

Pittsburgh made a few trades before the deadline that might be questioned if the Bucs fail, in particular trading away right-handed reliever Brad Lincoln, who had been one of their star performers getting virtually every out he was called upon to do. The aftermath and short term results of acquiring Wandy Rodriguez, Travis Snider, Chad Qualls, and Gaby Sanchez remains to be seen, but the chemistry on the squad doesn’t look the same.

Andrew McCutchen has been carrying the Bucs all season with a .362 average, but in 11 August games, he’s hitting only .286 with one home run and 5 RBI’s. James McDonald’s pitching was a major reason why the Bucs jumped out and became contenders prior to the All-Star break, but has been blasted in his last six starts with the team going 1-5 behind him.

Even A.J. Burnett has gotten into the act of underperforming as he lost his last start. Pittsburgh had won 15 of his past 16 starts until Saturday, a day of the week they have dominated throughout the season going 15-2, but have now lost their last two.

It just seems like everything is caving in for the Pirates. While they should be in good shape to have their first winning season in 19 years, it’s hard to ignore that the Pirates were almost in the same situation last season and finished with a losing record.

Perhaps I’m just being a pessimist so I’m not overly disappointed if the Pirates don’t make the playoffs. I have nothing at stake here except wanting new colors in the playoffs, especially one of the most storied franchises in the history of the game.

If thinking their second wind will come, you can go to the LVH Super Book where they currently have the Pirates at 12-to-1 to win the NL and 25 to-1 to win the World Series.

Weaver Finally Loses
You knew it couldn’t last, and you’d feel foolish if betting against him, but those that took a chance on betting against Jered Weaver as a minus-280 favorite Sunday against Jason Vargas and the Mariners got a nice pay day. Despite the juicy plus-money, there weren’t many takers. The bulk of the action was on Weaver, and in particular, the run-line (-1.5 -120) where the money differential made it hard to pass up. Weaver had won nine straight games covering the run-line before Sunday’s game.

Weaver has been sensational all season long and is the easy choice to win the AL Cy Young, but at home, he was on another planet all by himself going 8-0 with an ERA of 0.92. The Angels had won 12 straight games with Weaver on the mound before Sunday and had gone 17-3 on the season.

The loss came at bad time for the Angels who have been struggling lately, falling eight games behind the Rangers and allowing the A’s to pass them for second in the AL West. Through Sunday, the Angels were two games out of the Wild Card chase with four teams above them. Making matters worse is that the thriving hitters from June and July such as Mark Trumbo and Albert Pujols, the heart of their lineup, have been quiet. Pujols went a disappointing 0-for-12 over the weekend.

Despite all the issues, the LVH still has the Angels 11-to-2 to win the AL and 10-to-1 to win the World Series.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, August 13

Hot pitchers
-- Karstens is 4-0, 2.80 in his last seven starts.
-- Minor has a 1.99 RA in his last five starts.
-- Hamels is 1-1, 1.69 in his last couple starts.
-- Samardzija is 2-2, 2.59 in his last five starts.
-- Fiers is 5-2, 1.19 in his last nine starts.
-- Vogelsong is 3-1, 2.25 in his last five starts.

-- Phelps is 0-1, 2.07 in three starts, but hasn't finished fifth inning in any of the three games.
-- Minnesota won last five Deduno starts (3-0, 2.31 in last four).
-- Beavan is 4-0, 3.67 in his last five starts. Cobb is 2-0, 1.29 in his last two.

Cold pitchers
-- Harang is 0-2, 5.89 in his last three starts.
-- Stults is 1-2, 5.00 in his last three starts.
-- Eovaldi has a 5.11 RA in his first three starts for Miami.
-- Galarraga is 0-2, 5.87 in three starts for the Astros.
-- Francis is 0-2, 10.80 in his last three starts.
-- GGonzalez is 2-3, 4.81 in his last six starts.

-- Dempster has a 9.00 RA in two starts for Texas, but Rangers won both games, scoring 21 runs.
-- Villanueva is 2-2, 4.63 in his last four starts. Peavy is 2-3, 4.41 in his last five starts.
-- ASanchez is 1-2, 8.40 in three starts for Detroit.
-- Wilson is 0-3, 8.19 in his last five starts. Masterson is 1-2, 10.26 in his last three starts.

Hot Teams
-- Dodgers won nine of their last thirteen road games.
-- Padres won six of their last seven games. Braves won 14 of 18.
-- Washington won 19 of its last 23 games. Giants won seven of ten.

-- Rangers/Bronx both won four of their last five games.
-- Indians won three of their last four games.
-- Tampa Bay won 11 of its last 14 games.

Cold Teams
-- Pirates lost four of their last six games.
-- Miami lost 17 of its last 25 games. Phillies lost five of last seven on road.
-- Astros lost 35 of their last 40 games. Cubs lost ten of their last twelve.
-- Brewers lost 11 of their last 12 road games. Colorado lost 14 of its last 19 games overall.

-- Blue Jays lost eleven of their last fourteen games overall; White Sox lost seven of their last eleven road games.
-- Tigers lost four of their last five games. Minnesota lost its last five home games.
-- Angels lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- Mariners lost five of their last seven games.

Totals
-- Over is 8-4-1 in last thirteen Dodger road games.
-- 13 of last 18 San Diego games went over the total.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in Miami's last five games.
-- Under is 13-5-1 in last nineteen games at Wrigley Field.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six games at Coors Field.
-- Over is 7-3-1 in last eleven San Francisco games.

-- Five of last seven Bronx games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Toronto games went over the total.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in Detroit's last five road games.
-- Four of last five Cleveland games stayed under total.
-- 16 of last 22 Tampa Bay games stayed under total.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, August 13

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Texas - 7:05 PM ET Texas +103 500
NY Yankees - Under 9.5 500

LA Dodgers - 7:05 PM ET Pittsburgh -127 500
Pittsburgh - Over 8 500

Chi. White Sox - 7:07 PM ET Chi. White Sox -121 500
Toronto - Under 8 500

San Diego - 7:10 PM ET San Diego +172 500
Atlanta - Under 8.5 500

Philadelphia - 7:10 PM ET Miami +149 500
Miami - Over 7.5 500

Houston - 8:05 PM ET Chi. Cubs -178 500
Chi. Cubs - Over 7.5 500

Detroit - 8:10 PM ET Detroit -140 500
Minnesota - Under 9.5 500

Milwaukee - 8:40 PM ET Milwaukee -141 500
Colorado - Over 10 500

Cleveland - 10:05 PM ET Cleveland +178 500
LA Angels - Over 7.5 500

Tampa Bay - 10:10 PM ET Tampa Bay -130 500
Seattle - Under 7 500

Washington - 10:15 PM ET San Francisco -114 500
San Francisco - Over 6.5 500