The Bum's Thursday's MLB Best Bets !

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Diamondbacks Wrap Series At Pittsburgh Pirates

Will Wandy Rodriguez win over Pittsburgh Pirates fans when he makes his first home start since being picked up in a July trade? More importantly, can he win money for bettors backing the Bucs who are $1.20 favorites in their series finale against the Arizona Diamondbacks?

The late matinee affair at PNC Park is slated for a 4:05 p.m. (ET) first pitch from Rodriguez. He faces fellow lefty Joe Saunders of Arizona with an 8-run total.

Arizona has climbed back into the National League playoff picture thanks to a 17-11 push that began just before the all-star break. The Diamondbacks stopped a 3-game slide with a 10-4 victory in the second game of this series on Tuesday, getting a pair of late homers from newly-acquired third baseman Chris Johnson to rally from a 4-3 deficit and grab the dubya as slight +105 underdogs. The triumph left the Snakes four games out of the NL West in third place, and 6.5-games behind the Pirates for the second NL wild-card slot.

Even with that loss, the Pirates still own the best home record in the majors (34-17), and the fourth-best overall mark in the NL which puts them 3.5-games back of the Cincinnati Reds in the Central. Pittsburgh had won 13 of 20 entering Wednesday's third game of the set which was still pending. Arizona was priced at -140 for the tilt with an 8-run total. Ian Kennedy was scheduled to pitch for the D-Backs opposite Kevin Correia.

Saunders will be taking the mound for the 19th time this campaign and has produced nice numbers over his last nine outings with a 3.35 ERA and 43:16 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Despite his efforts, Arizona managed to win just two of those nine assignments thanks to a lack of run support. The Diamondbacks were blanked in three of the losses and managed to score but a single run in three others.

The former star at Virginia Tech beat the Bucs in Phoenix back in April, tossing seven innings while scattering six hits and allowing just one run.

Rodriguez has been a bit lucky as well as unlucky in his first two starts since coming from Houston in a late-July swap. Both outings were on the road, and his first start for the Pirates came against his former Astros teammates. The southpaw was a bit wild but still kept Pittsburgh in the game, and the Bucs eventually rallied for a 4-3 triumph. He surrendered just three runs in Cincinnati the last time out, but the Pirates couldn't muster any offense against Mat Latos and the Reds who scored a 3-0 whitewashing.

He last faced the Diamondbacks almost exactly one year ago in Arizona, posting zeroes for six innings and allowing just two hits while striking out five. Rodriguez is 3-5 in eight lifetime starts vs. the Snakes with a 5.40 ERA.

Pittsburgh had a slim 3-2 advantage over the Diamondbacks this season with Wednesday's contest still unsettled. The 'under' also held a 3-2 edge in 2012 clashes. The Pirates had won six of the last eight played at PNC Park.

Alfonso Marquez should complete the umpire crew's rotation in this 4-game series on Thursday. Totals have run 13-8-1 'under' in his previous 22 plate assignments, with the 'over' 3-1 the last four.

A warm, muggy day is in the forecast for Iron City where afternoon highs will reach the mid-80s. The chance of rain increases as the afternoon wears on.

[StarDust Bum]

Matt Moore And Rays Host Toronto Blue Jays

The American League East action gets underway early on Thursday with an afternoon tilt between the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays.

First pitch from Tropicana Field will be at 1:10 p.m. (ET). Don Best is sending out Tampa as a solid $2.00 home favorite with a total of seven runs in the finale of a 3-game series.

Matt Moore (8-7, 3.84 ERA) will be on the hill for the Rays and is a big reason for their favorite status. He’s looking like the guy from last year who got called up at the end of the season and pitched great through the playoffs.

The 23-year-old lefty has over a 16-inning scoreless streak going and his home ERA for the season (3.36) is far lower than away (4.63). He is 3-1 in four starts since the All-Star break with a paltry 1.46 ERA.

Henderson Alvarez (7-8, 4.47 ERA) is the opposing pitcher and is 2-1 in his last three starts. The ‘under’ has been a solid play for him lately at 3-1 in the last four. Don Best MLB analyst Kenny White points to poor run support as one reason, nine total runs scored in three of those contests.

White also likes the ‘stuff’ of the 22-year-old right-hander with a 93 mph fastball, curve and slider. Alvarez’ most recent start against the Rays this year came in mid-May, surrendering just two earned runs over 6 2/3 innings in a 4-3 loss. He was somewhat lucky in allowing 10 hits and will need to lower that number on Thursday.

Looking at the big picture in the AL East, the Rays are 57-52 pending Wednesday night’s result. They took the first game of the series on Tuesday by a score of 4-1. Tampa is just six games back of the suddenly-struggling Yankees and right in the thick of the wild-card.

Getting Evan Longoria back from the disabled list should make a huge difference for Tampa and he was 1-for-3 with an RBI in his first game back on Tuesday. White loves the managing of Joe Maddon who has the coaching pedigree and experience to make another strong run.

Toronto (53-56) is in the division basement, even below the underachieving Red Sox, and hasn’t hit or pitched particularly well since the break.

Make sure to check out the Don Best Pro Odds. It has all the baseball betting information you need and is a must-use tool for the upcoming NFL and college football season.

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Thursday

August 9, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Royals are 0-16 since April 20, 2011 when playing a night game as a dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed in a night game for a net profit of $1600 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Rays are 0-19 OU since April 14, 2011 as a favorite after a one run win in a night game for a net profit of $1900 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Marlins are 13-0 OU since May 15, 2006 when Josh Johnson starts on the road after the team won their last two games for a net profit of $1300 when playing the over.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Marlins are 7-0 OU (3.1 rpg) since 2010 after two straight wins where they never trailed and the last win was by 5+ runs.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Diamondbacks are 0-12 OU since May 12, 2011 on the road when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $1200 when playing the under.

-- The Astros are 10-0-1 OU since May 28, 2011 at home after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000 when playing the over.

[StarDust Bum]

Red Sox-Indians begin 4-game set Thursday

BOSTON RED SOX (55-57)

at CLEVELAND INDIANS (51-60)


First pitch: Thursday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -130, Cleveland +120, Total: 9

Two badly struggling franchises, the Red Sox and Indians, will meet Thursday in Cleveland for the opener of a four-game series.

The Red Sox are just 2-6 in August, including two straight losses to bring their record to two games below .500. And prior to beating the Twins Wednesday night, the Indians had lost 11 games in a row (allowing 10+ runs in five of those defeats), which brought them well below the even mark too. Neither of these teams should get much help from their starting pitcher Thursday to right their ships, with Ubaldo Jimenez and Felix Doubront on the hill. Boston’s left-hander Doubront has a 4.56 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the season, but has been shelled lately with a 6.61 ERA and 1.96 WHIP in his past three starts, in which he has walked four people per outing. Jimenez is no better though. He has a 5.29 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 2012, with 76 walks (most in majors) in 127.2 innings. He has not won since July 7, going 0-4 with an 8.42 ERA and 2.03 WHIP in five starts. The difference in this game could be the Indians’ struggles against lefties. Doubront beat them earlier this season allowing just one run in six innings, contributing to Cleveland’s major-league worst 11-24 record (.314) versus southpaws. Play on BOSTON as the road favorite here.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Red Sox:

Play On - Any team (BOSTON) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA=4.70 to 5.70)-AL, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. (127-68 since 1997.) (65.1%, +60.4 units. Rating = 3*).

That outing earlier this year is Doubront’s only career start versus the Indians, but he has enjoyed pitching on the road this season, carting a 3.57 ERA with 60 K’s in 58 innings. More importantly, he has led the Red Sox to eight wins in his 10 away starts. And even though he does not make it deep into games, averaging 5.6 innings per start, the Boston bullpen has helped with Doubront’s great road winning percentage. Sox relievers carry a stellar 3.39 ERA in 2012, a figure that drops to 2.64 on the road. Although All-Star DH David Ortiz could come back later this weekend, the Red Sox lineup is starting to surge with 27 runs and 48 hits in the past four games.

Whereas Doubront had success pitching against the Indians this year, Jimenez has been owned by the Red Sox in his career. In his 2012 outing he yielded nine hits and seven earned runs in 4.1 innings, walking five and striking out four. Overall, including a start in the 2007 World Series, he is 0-2 versus Boston with a 9.20 ERA and 2.18 WHIP in three career starts. Supported by a lineup that averages just 3.8 runs per game with a .232 batting average against lefty starters is not encouraging either. The Cleveland bullpen is also shaky, carrying a 4.09 ERA on the season, which marks the worst relief ERA in the American League.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, August 9

Hot pitchers
-- JJohnson is 2-0, 1.83 in his last three starts. Dickey is 1-1, 2.57 in his last two outings.
-- Bumgarner is 2-1, 2.45 in his last five starts. Wainwright is 2-0, 2.11 in his last three outings.
-- Zimmerman is 5-1, 2.09 in his last nine starts. Harrell is 2-1, 2.05 in his last five outings.

-- Kuroda is 2-1, 1.27 in his last four starts. Fister is 4-1, 1.62 in his last five outing.
-- Moore is 3-1, 1.46 in his last four starts.
-- WChen is 3-1, 2.39 in his last four starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Saunders is 1-4, 3.99 in his last six starts. WRodriguez is 0-4, 5.59 in his last five starts.
-- Leake is 1-1, 7.29 in his last four starts. Cubs are 0-10 when Volstad starts this season (0-5, 8.51 in his last five).

-- Alvarez is 0-2, 6.92 in two starts vs Tampa Bay this year.
-- Doubrant is 0-1, 6.47 in his last three starts. Masterson is 0-4, 8.42 in his lat five starts.
-- Smith is 1-3, 5.76 in his last five starts.

Hot Teams
-- Marlins won their last two games, allowing total of two runs.
-- Giants won seven of their last nine road games.
-- Pirates won eight of their last eleven home games.
-- Milwaukee won nine of its last twelve home games.
-- Washington won 15 of its last 19 games.

-- Tigers won 16 of their last 18 home games.
-- Rays won seven of their last ten games.
-- Baltimore won eight of its last ten games. Royals won three of four.

Cold Teams
-- Mets lost their last nine home games.
-- Cardinals lost their last two games, outscored 19-2.
-- Arizona lost four of its last five games.
-- Cincinnati lost its last four games, scoring eight runs.
-- Astros lost 33 of their last 37 games.

-- Bronx lost 12 of its last 19 games.
-- Blue Jays lost eight of their last ten games.
-- Indians lost 11 of their last 12 games. Boston is 4-9 in its last 13 at home.

Totals
-- Under is 11-3-1 in Miami's last fifteen road games.
-- Over is 18-6-1 in Giants' last twenty-five road games.
-- Under is 14-7-1 in Pittsburgh's last twenty-two games.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in Leake's last nine starts.
-- Six of last eight Harrell starts stayed under the total.

-- Seven of last nine Kuroda starts stayed under total.
-- 15 of last 18 Tampa Bay games stayed under total.
-- Over is 8-3-1 in Doubrant's last twelve starts.
-- Five of last six WChen starts stayed under the total.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Short Sheet

Thursday, August 9

National League

Miami at NY Mets, 12:10 ET
Johnson: 2-9 TSR away pitching off a team win
Dickey: 7-1 TSR pitching on 5 or 6 days rest

San Francisco at St. Louis, 1:45 ET
Bumgarner: San Francisco 21-10 Over away with a total of 7.5 runs or less
Wainwright: St. Louis 28-13 SU off a loss by 4+ runs

Arizona at Pittsburgh, 4:05 ET
Saunders: Arizona 35-22 SU after losing 3 of their last 4 games
Rodriguez: Pittsburgh 20-46 SU in August

Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs, 8:05 ET
Leake: 9-1 TSR pitching off BB team losses
Volstad: 0-10 TSR as an underdog

Washington at Houston, 8:05 ET
Zimmermann: Washington 17-5 SU off BB wins by 2 runs or less
Harrell: Houston 3-21 SU after losing 12+ of their last 15 games


American League

NY Yankees at Detroit, 1:05 ET
Kuroda: Yankees 23-11 SU away off a win by 4+ runs
Fister: 17-5 Under pitching off a team loss

Toronto at Tampa Bay, 1:10 ET
Alvarez: Toronto 9-19 SU after scoring 2 runs or less
Moore: Tampa Bay 10-1 SU off 5+ Unders

Boston at Cleveland, 7:05 ET MLB
Doubront: Boston 12-18 SU off BB losses
Jimenez: Cleveland 17-6 SU at home off a win by 4+ runs

Kansas City at Baltimore, 7:05 ET MLB
Smith: Kansas City 15-41 SU away vs. left-handed starters
Chen: Baltimore 11-4 SU off a win by 4+ runs

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

CBSSports.com took a survey of 100+ college basketball coaches this July, as to who the most overrated coach in the country is. Here are their results……..

23%-- Roy Williams, UNC-- Has had two plum jobs, Carolina/Kansas.

17%-- Rick Barnes, Texas-- Production hasn't matched the talent.

11%-- Scott Drew, Baylor-- Myself, I think this is unfair, but so be it.

9%-- Steve Lavin, St John's-- Will miss departed tactician Dunlap.

6%-- Wright, Villanova-- Starting guards left early, weren't drafted.

6%-- Howland, UCLA-- People forget he won at Northern Arizona.

4%-- Boeheim, Syracuse-- Doesn't complicate things; has won for years.

4%-- Amaker, Harvard-- Didn't win at Michigan or Seton Hall.


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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud.....

13) Mike Trout homered on his 21st birthday Tuesday, only fifth player ever to do so: Jason Heyward-Frank Robinson-Alex Rodriguez-Ted Williams are other four. Pretty good club to belong to.

12) Angels swung at 47 Bartolo Colon pitches Tuesday and missed only once, but they also got only four hits on 20 balls they put in play. Colon keeps hitters off balance extremely well.

11) Big series with the Halos/A’s in Oakland this week; attendance was disappointing: 13,341/15,458/21,150. Too bad; the A’s are a fun team to watch, and they have a shot at making the playoffs.

10) Penn State’s football uniforms will have players’ names on the back this year, just not all the names they wanted; nine players have transferred, five recruits for 2013 have de-committed.

9) Padres’ closer Huston Street hasn’t allowed a run since June 17. Good to see the Padres signed him to an extension rather than trade him at the trading deadline for prospects.

8) Out in Seattle, Oliver Perez has very quietly posted a 2.08 ERA as a lefty out of the Mariner bullpen. He’d be an interesting piece for a team (Angels?) struggling with their relief pitching.

7) Baltimore Orioles have now won their last twelve extra inning games; Bronx Bombers lost their last eight one-run games.

6) Arizona traded for 3B Chris Johnson; the former Astro has five homers in his first eight games with the Snakes. Not really sure why Houston traded him.

5) All of a sudden Carl Crawford played in nine straight games; guess the doctors’ advice about him sitting out now and then, which caused quite a stir last week, doesn’t hold anymore, if it ever existed in first place.

4) Former UCLA/Bucks’ star Marques Johnson came out before the quarterfinals and predicted the US Olympic team wouldn’t win the gold medal, citing less-than-stellar USA defense. Americans were a 33-point favorite over Australia, and won by 33, after Aussies had game as close as six early in the third quarter.

3) Its rained hard Wednesday at Kiawah Island, site of this weekend’s PGA Championship, as remnants of a tropical storm pummel coastal area; cynical pundits have already dubbed this weekend The Pour at the Shore.

2) Minnesota is known as the Land of 10,000 Lakes, but in fact, there are 11,842 lakes in Jesse Ventura’s home state.

1) Glad to see FOX hired Mike Martz as an analyst on NFL games; can’t wait to see how he does on TV. Some of those production meetings during the week with other coaches could be interesting.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Thursday, August 9

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 12:10 PM ET Miami +123 500
NY Mets - Under 6.5 500

NY Yankees - 1:05 PM ET Detroit -113 500
Detroit - Under 9 500

Toronto - 1:10 PM ET Toronto +168 500
Tampa Bay - Over 7.5 500

San Francisco - 1:45 PM ET San Francisco +126 500
St. Louis - Over 7.5 500

Arizona - 4:05 PM ET Arizona +119 500
Pittsburgh - Over 8 500

Kansas City - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore -175 500
Baltimore - Under 8.5 500

Boston - 7:05 PM ET Boston -126 500
Cleveland - Over 9 500

Washington - 8:05 PM ET Washington -180 500
Houston - Over 7.5 500

Cincinnati - 8:05 PM ET Cincinnati -147 500