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[StarDust Bum]

Pirates And Reds Wrap Up Series In Cincinnati

Sunday's Major League Baseball action includes the Cincinnati Reds wrapping up their weekend series with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

First pitch from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is at 1:10 p.m. (ET), and the Reds will send Homer Bailey to the mound against AJ Burnett. Don Best is sending the odds out as a pick 'em with the total at eight and shaded to the 'under.'

We start with Pittsburgh and the unbelievable career that Burnett is enjoying with the surprising Bucs. His season got off to an inauspicious beginning when he bunted a ball into his face during spring training and missed the first few weeks due to a fractured orbital bone. The Pirates have lost just three of his 19 starts, each of those defeats on the road. That includes a horrible performance at St. Louis in his third start of the season when he allowed 12 earned runs without making it through the third inning.

"Burnett's been great," said Don Best sports analyst Kenny White. "Fastball, curveball guy. His curveball, he has great command of it. He's been able to get that curveball over in any count this year, and that's why he's been so effective."

Burnett is coming off a near no-hitter that he lost with two outs in the eighth inning at Wrigley Field on Tuesday, having to settle for a 5-0 shutout against the Chicago Cubs. He has won both of this starts vs. Cincinnati this season, allowing just three earned runs in 12 innings pitched.

Bailey (9-6, 3.85) has the Reds into the winner's circle each of his last six assignments, though his most recent trip to the bump was a bit ugly. The Padres scored six times against Bailey in his 3-2/3 innings on Tuesday after the Cincinnati lineup staked Bailey to a 6-0 lead. The Reds pulled the game out, however, with a 7-6 win over San Diego.

Don Best analyst Pat Williams is hanging an asterisk on that game after Bailey allowed just six earned runs in his previous five starts. He will be going for a career-best 10th win on Sunday.

Bailey faced the Bucs in back-to-back starts on May 29 and June 5, tossing a complete game 4-hitter in a 6-1 win at Pittsburgh and then getting roughed up at home when he lasted three frames and allowed six runs in an 8-4 setback.

Kenny White believes this is a tough game to call, but says he will back Burnett "until he completely falls apart."

Keep up with the latest updates, odds and betting trends by following the Don Best Pro Odds screen.

[StarDust Bum]

Around the Horn - Sunday

August 4, 2012

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati - 1:10 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Burnett (13-3, 3.27 ERA) 60-46 7-3 L10 away Game 3's
Bailey (9-6, 3.85 ERA) 66-41 14-4 home during day


-- Reds beat Pirates, 3-0 on Friday
-- Reds beat Pirates, 5-4 on Saturday

Arizona at Philadelphia - 1:35 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Cahill (9-9, 3.75 ERA) 55-52 3-9 L12 away vs LHP
Lee (2-6, 3.73 ERA) 48-59 6-10 home during day


-- Diamondbacks beat Phillies, 4-2 on Friday
-- Phillies beat Diamondbacks, 3-0 on Saturday

Miami at Washington - 1:35 PM EST (Game 4/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Nolasco (8-10, 4.90 ERA) 49-59 2-6 L8 away during day
Strasburg (11-5, 3.12 ERA) 63-43 2-5 home on Sundays


-- Nationals beat Marlins, 7-4 on Friday (G1/DH)
-- Marlins beat Nationals, 5-2 on Friday (G2/DH)
-- Nationals beat Marlins, 10-7 on Saturday

Houston at Atlanta - 1:35 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Norris (5-8, 5.02 ERA) 36-72 3-17 away during day
Medlen (2-1, 2.43 ERA) 61-46 4-9 L13 home Game 3's


-- Braves beat Astros, 4-1 on Friday
-- Astros beat Braves, 3-2 on Saturday

San Francisco at Colorado - 3:10 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Lincecum (5-11, 5.62 ERA) 57-49 2-5 away on Sundays
Chatwood (NR) 38-66 2-10 L12 home vs RHP


-- Giants beat Rockies, 16-4 on Friday

N.Y. Mets at San Diego - 4:05 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Harvey (1-1, 1.59 ERA) 52-55 8-3 L11 away during day
Marquis (4-6, 4.08 ERA) 45-63 UNDER 5-0 L5 home on Sundays


-- Padres beat Mets, 3-1 on Friday

Chicago at Los Angeles - 4:10 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Germano (1-1, 3.38 ERA) 43-61 5-15 away during day
Blanton (8-9, 4.59 ERA) 57-50 UNDER 5-2 L7 home Game 3's


-- Dodgers beat Cubs, 6-1 on Friday

Milwaukee at St. Louis - 8:05 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Estrada (0-4, 4.34 ERA) 48-58 3-8 L11 away Game 3's
Lohse (11-2, 2.91 ERA) 58-49 UNDER 6-0 L6 Game 3's


-- Cardinals beat Brewers, 9-3 on Friday
-- Cardinals beat Brewers, 6-1 on Saturday


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Cleveland at Detroit - 1:05 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Seddon (NR) 50-57 3-9 L12 away Game 3's
Scherzer (10-6, 4.62 ERA) 57-50 10-0 L10 home during day


-- Tigers beat Indians, 11-2 on Friday
-- Tigers beat Indians, 6-1 on Saturday

Seattle at N.Y. Yankees - 1:05 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Iwakuma (2-2, 4.10 ERA) 51-58 UNDER 6-1 L7 away during day
Garcia (4-5, 5.10 ERA) 62-44 7-3 L10 on Sundays


-- Yankees beat Mariners, 6-3 on Friday
-- Mariners beat Yankees, 1-0 on Saturday

Minnesota at Boston - 1:35 PM EST (Game 4/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Blackburn (4-6, 7.43 ERA) 47-60 5-2 L7 away vs LHP
Morales (2-2, 3.32 ERA) 53-55 5-9 L14 home during day


-- Twins beat Red Sox, 5-0 on Thursday
-- Twins beat Red Sox, 6-5 on Friday
-- Twins beat Red Sox, 6-4 on Saturday

Baltimore at Tampa Bay - 1:35 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Gonzalez (3-2, 4.46 ERA) 56-51 11-5 away during day
Price (14-4, 2.64 ERA) 56-51 UNDER 6-3 L9 home on Sundays


-- Rays beat Orioles, 2-0 on Friday
-- Orioles beat Rays, 4-0 on Saturday

Los Angeles at Chicago - 2:10 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Haren (8-8, 4.59 ERA) 58-50 8-0 L8 away Game v LHP
Liriano (3-10, 5.18 ERA) 58-48 6-2 L8 home during day


-- White Sox beat Angels, 8-6 on Friday
-- Angels beat White Sox, 6-5 on Saturday

Texas at Kansas City - 2:10 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Holland (7-6, 4.96 ERA) 63-43 UNDER 5-1 L6 away during day
Hochevar (7-9, 5.22 ERA) 44-62 1-7 home on Sundays


-- Rangers beat Royals, 5-3 on Friday
-- Rangers beat Royals, 4-2 on Saturday

Toronto at Oakland - 4:05 PM EST (Game 4/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Laffey (2-2, 4.20 ERA) 52-55 3-10 L13 away vs LHP
Milone (9-8, 3.68 ERA) 58-49 UNDER 6-1 home on Sundays


-- Athletics beat Blue Jays, 4-1 on Thursday
-- Athletics beat Blue Jays, 5-4 on Friday
-- Blue Jays beat Athletics, 3-1 on Saturday

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, August 5

Hot pitchers
-- Burnett is 3-0, 1.13 in his last three starts; Pirates are 15-1 in his last 16. Bailey is 4-0, 3.27 in his last six starts.
-- Medlen allowed one run in five IP in winning his first '12 start.
-- Lincecum is 2-1, 2.70 in his last four starts.
-- Harvey is 1-1, 2.38 in his first two big league starts.
-- Lohse is 5-0, 3.02 in his last seven starts.

-- Iwakuma is 1-0, 1.89 in his last three starts.
-- Scherzer is 3-0, 0.82 in his last three home starts.
-- Morales is 2-1, 3.76 in his last five starts.
-- Price is 5-0, 2.01 in his last seven starts.
-- Haren is 2-0, 2.25 in his last couple starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Lee is 0-3, 5.65 in his last four home starts. Cahill is 4-4, 5.89 in his last eight starts.
-- Nolasco is 0-4, 7.48 in his last four starts. Strasburg is 1-1, 6.06 in his last three outings.
-- Astros lost last ten Norris starts (0-7, 7.10).
-- Chatwood was 6-11, 4.75 in 25 starts for the Angels LY; he is 1-3, 4.70 in his 13 minor league starts this season.
-- Marquis is 3-4, 6.43 in his last eight starts.
-- Harang is 1-1, 5.92 in his last four starts. Germano allowed two runs in five IP in his first '12 start.
-- Estrada is 0-1, 4.67 in his last four starts; Brewers are 4-8 in his starts.

-- Garcia is 0-3, 4.74 in his last three starts.
-- Seddon has a 7.03 ERA in 39 big league IP; he started four games for the '07 Marlins-- he is 11-5, 3.44 in 20 AAA starts this year.
-- Blackburn is 1-1, 8.53 in his last four road starts.
-- MGonzalez is 2-2, 6.64 in his last four starts.
-- Holland is 1-2, 6.43 in his last three starts. Hochevar is 1-1, 6.43 in his last four outings.
-- Liriano is 0-3, 5.96 in his last four starts, but he allowed only two runs in six IP in his first start for the White Sox.
-- Milone is 0-2, 8.31 in his last couple starts. Laffey is 2-2, 6.04 in his last five starts.

Hot Teams
-- Washington won 11 of its last 15 games.
-- Reds won 15 of their last 16 games.
-- Arizona won six of its last eight games.
-- Braves won twelve of their last sixteen home games.
-- Cardinals won 11 of their last 15 games.
-- Giants won four of their last five road games.
-- Mets won five of their last seven games.

-- Tigers won 13 of their last 14 home games.
-- Mariners won eight of their last nine games.
-- Orioles won eight of their last eleven road games. Tampa Bay won seven of its last 11 games.
-- White Sox won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Minnesota won seven of its last nine games.
-- Texas won its last four games, scoring 35 runs.
-- Oakland won eight of its last eleven home games.

Cold Teams
-- Marlins lost 13 of their last 18 games.
-- Pirates lost four of their last six games.
-- Astros lost 23 of their last 25 road games.
-- Phillies lost five of their last eight games.
-- Milwaukee lost nine of its last ten road games.
-- Rockies lost 11 of their last 13 games.
-- Padres lost six of their last eight games.
-- Cubs are 3-7 in their last ten road games. Dodgers are 5-6 in their last 11 games overall.

-- Indians lost their last eight games, outscored 64-20.
-- Bronx lost 10 of its last 15 games.
-- Red Sox lost seven of their last nine home games.
-- Angels are 5-10 in their last 15 road games.
-- Kansas City lost seven of its last nine games.
-- Toronto lost eleven of its last eighteen games.

Totals
-- Under is 8-3-1 in Miami's last dozen road games.
-- Six of Philly's last eight games stayed under total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Cincinnati games.
-- Eight of last ten Atlanta home games stayed under.
-- Under is 10-4-1 in last fifteen St Louis home games.
-- Over is 15-5-1 in Giants' last twenty-one road games.
-- 14 of last 20 San Diego games went over the total.
-- Under is 15-6-1 in Cubs' last 22 games.

-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Cleveland home games.
-- Under is 5-0-1 in last six Seattle road games.
-- Eight of last nine Tampa Bay home games stayed under.
-- Over is 9-4-1 in last fourteen Minnesota games.
-- Last six White Sox home games went over the total.
-- 21 of last 29 Texas games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 13-5 in Oakland's last eighteen home games.

Umpires
-- Mia-Wsh-- Last seven Culbreth games stayed under total.
-- Az-Phil-- Seven of last ten Cousins games stayed under.
-- Pitt-Cin-- Five of last six Tichemor games went over total.
-- Hst-Atl-- Eight of last ten Hoye games went over the total.
-- Mil-StL-- 10 of last 15 Everitt games stayed under the total.
-- SF-Col-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Nelson games.
-- NY-SD-- Underdogs won six of last seven Hickox games.
-- Chi-LA-- Five of Scott's last six games stayed under total.

-- Sea-NY-- Underdogs won five of last six Campos games.
-- Tor-A's-- Under is 6-1-2 in last nine Cuzzi games.
-- Tex-KC-- Underdogs won five of last six TBarrett games.
-- Clev-Det-- Six of West's last seven games stayed under.
-- Balt-TB-- Hallion's last six games all went over the total.
-- Min-Bos-- Eight of last ten Bell games stayed under total.
-- LA-Chi-- Favored team won last twelve Demuth games.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Sunday, August 5

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Sunday Night Baseball: Brewers at Cardinals
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Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (-145, 9)

It's a National League Central battle as the Cardinals host the Brewers Sunday night.

LOHSE ON POINT

Kyle Lohse is 11-2 with a 2.91 ERA for the Cardinals this season. He ended July with his worst start since May, although it was in Coors Field which can be forgiven.

Lohse is ranked third in the National League with 16 quality starts this year. The Cardinals’ starter faced Milwaukee back on April 28 and gave up three runs and six hits in six innings, striking out five while walking four.

Lohse had an amazing streak of 10 starts from June 4 to July 25 where he allowed three earned runs or more just once. Lohse has allowed 12 HRs this season, but he's been able to pitch around those.

MARCO OH NO

Milwaukee’s Marco Estrada is still looking for his first win of the season. He threw seven strong innings against Houston Monday, allowing just two earned runs, but it wasn't enough for the victory.

He has made 12 starts with eight of them resulting in no-decisions. Estrada was on the losing end of Lohse's win on April 28, giving up five runs and seven hits in six innings. He struck out two and walked two while giving up two homers.

Estrada faced the Cardinals as a reliever twice in April giving up two runs and two hits in just over three innings. Estrada’s pitch count has been more manageable in his last two starts after throwing 114 and 113 pitches in two starts earlier this month.

INJURY REPORT

The Brewers are relatively clean on the injury report, although, they would be better served if Shaun Marcum and Mat Gamel were healthy. Marcum has tightness in his right elbow while the first baseman has a torn ACL that he sustained after crashing into a wall attempting to make a catch. The team is also without shortstop Alex Gonzalez and starter Chris Narveson, who has a left rotator cuff tear.

St. Louis is without two of their major starting pitchers in Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia. Carpenter is done after season-ending surgery to his right shoulder while Garcia should return at some point. Lance Berkman, Rafael Furcal, and Yadier Molina are all dinged up with various ailments as well.

TRENDS

Brewers are 4-1-1 Under in their last six Sunday games
Brewers are 3-8 in Estrada's last 11 starts
Cardinals are 4-0 in Lohse’s last four home starts
Cardinals are 8-2 Under in Lohse’s last 10 starts

HITTERS TO WATCH

Ryan Braun 9-for-32 against Lohse
Aramis Ramirez 9-for-20 against Lohse
Yadier Molina 5-for-7 against Estrada
Rafael Furcal 2-for-10 against Estrada

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, August 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Seattle 1 Bot 1 Seattle +173 500
NY Yankees 1 Under 10 500

Cleveland 2 Top 2 Cleveland +192 500
Detroit 1 Under 9.5 500

Pittsburgh 0 Top 2 Cincinnati -121 500
Cincinnati 1 Over 8 500

Minnesota 0 Bot 0 Minnesota +178 500
Boston 0 Over 10.5 500

Houston 0 Bot 0 Houston +206 500
Atlanta 0 Under 7.5 500

Miami 0 Bot 0 Miami +201 500
Washington 0 Over 7.5 500

Arizona 0 Bot 0 Philadelphia -135 500
Philadelphia 0 Over 7.5 500

Baltimore 0 Bot 0 Baltimore +192 500
Tampa Bay 0 Under 7 500

LA Angels - 2:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox -108 500
Chi. White Sox - Under 10 500

Texas - 2:10 PM ET Texas -145 500
Kansas City - Over 9.5 500

San Francisco - 3:10 PM ET San Francisco -150 500
Colorado - Over 11 500

Toronto - 4:05 PM ET Oakland -160 500
Oakland - Over 7.5 500

NY Mets - 4:05 PM ET NY Mets -117 500
San Diego - Over 7 500

Chi. Cubs - 4:10 PM ET Chi. Cubs +164 500
LA Dodgers - Over 8 500

Milwaukee - 8:05 PM ET St. Louis -157 500
St. Louis - Over 8.5 500