The Bum's Preseason Best Bets + Wagering Tips !

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NFL

Friday, August 24

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Philadelphia - 7:30 PM ET Philadelphia +4 500
Cleveland - Under 37 500

Atlanta - 7:30 PM ET Atlanta -3 500
Miami - Under 41.5 500

New England - 7:30 PM ET New England -7 500
Tampa Bay - Over 44 500

San Diego - 8:00 PM ET San Diego +3 500 Minnesota - Over 42 500

Chicago - 8:00 PM ET N.Y. Giants -3 500
N.Y. Giants - Under 41 500

Seattle - 8:00 PM ET Seattle -3 500
Kansas City - Over 41.5 500

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Luck & RGIII Meet In Colts, Redskins Clash

The storylines for the next few seasons in Indianapolis and Washington were drawn before last April’s NFL draft, when the Redskins traded up with the Rams to move into the second position in the first round, right behind the Colts. That was just after Washington head coach Mike Shanahan failed in his attempt to get Peyton Manning to enlist in D.C.; instead, “The Shan” immediately turned his attention to the draft and Baylor’s Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III as the potential savior for his wobbling regime.

Meanwhile, Indy rarely deviated from its commitment to draft Stanford QB Andrew Luck with the top choice in the first round, which made Manning expendable to the Colts in the first place.

Thus inexorably linked for the remainder of their careers, Luck and Griffin get to face one another for the first time on Saturday afternoon at FedEx Field, hard against the D.C. Beltway in lovely Landover. Kickoff for this third preseason clash for both teams will be at 4:00 p.m. (ET), with TV coverage provided by NFL Network.

The Don Best Pro Odds screen notes the Redskins favored by 3½ points at the majority of Las Vegas wagering outlets, with the total mostly at 43½ around town.

To this point in the preseason, however, there has not been much comparison between Luck and RG III. Whereas Luck has appeared ready to step right into leading the Colts offense, Griffin has been mostly struggling as he adjusts to life as a pro quarterback.

Indeed, Luck’s performances have opened the eyes of many and created quite a buzz. His first pro pass, albeit only a screen to RB Donald Brown, resulted in a 63-yard TD in the preseason opener vs. the Rams. Perhaps more impressive was his work in last Sunday’s game at Pittsburgh; after being fooled by vet Steeler defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau’s zone blitzes and tossing a pick returned for a TD by Pittsburgh CB Ike Taylor, Luck shook off his mistake with a smile, looked LeBeau back in the eye, and promptly led a pair of TD drives and the Colts to a 17-14 lead by the end of the first half.

It’s early, and the preseason is only halfway complete, but many NFL insiders suggest that Luck already looks as good as at least half of the starting QBs in the league.

The same cannot be said of the Redskins’ Griffin, who has mostly labored in his first two starts vs. Buffalo and Chicago. Griffin appeared especially rattled by the different blitzes and coverage looks that Lovie Smith’s Bears defense threw at him in the first half last week at Soldier Field. In fact, the 'Skins didn’t start to move offensively until Michigan State rookie QB Kirk Cousins led a wild rally in the fourth quarter, although by then it should be noted that Lovie’s Chicago “D” was deep into substitutions and was not throwing the kitchen sink at Cousins as it did at RG III. After conceding a trio of fourth-quarter TDs, the Bears needed a 57-yard FG by Robbie Gould in the final seconds to escape with a 33-31 win.

But when the smoke had finally cleared in Chicago, Griffin had completed passes worth just 49 yards, and been sacked three times, as the Redskins scored just three points in the first half with the Heisman winner at the controls. It was a step backward for RG III, who had looked a bit better when leading a first-quarter TD drive in the opening game against the Bills.

Look for Griffin to play into the third quarter this week, although many NFC East observers are wondering when Shanahan and his offensive coordinator, son Kyle, are going to open up the Washington offense and feature more of the spread formations they are likely to utilize with RG III in the regular season. The 'Skins employed a lot of “heavy jumbo” looks last week at Chicago, the 1-WR, 3-TE, 1-RB deployments that are mostly designed to run the ball but not expected to be the normal mode of operation with Griffin in the cockpit.

Shanahan, however, has other concerns, especially after watching his old QB, Jay Cutler, carve up the Washington secondary last week at Solider Field. The Redskins also have a growing injury list on defense, with key components LB Brian Orakpo (shoulder) and S Brandon Meriweather (knee) both KO’d at Chicago. Though their injuries are not deemed serious, both could be withheld on Saturday. Star LB London Fletcher also didn’t play vs. the Bears because of illness and his status is iffy for the Indy game.

Moreover, the offensive line, a point of concern for Shanahan entering training camp, has been struggling, and could not cope with the Bears’ blitz tactics last week. Minor injuries have not helped the forward wall’s progress this summer, and rookie Adam Gettis likely starts again at RG in place of the injured Chris Chester. Tackle Jamaal Brown remains sidelined after re-injuring his hip early in training camp.

On the plus side for Washington, Saturday might mark the debut of RB Tim Hightower, who was held out of the first two preseason games while finishing his recuperation from last season’s torn ACL.

Although the Colts have the same straight-up record (1-1) in exhibition play as the Redskins, Indy has looked more impressive in the first two games.

As for Luck, the rave reviews are flowing, but the Stanford rookie seems unfazed, having avoided signing any endorsement deals in order to better concentrate upon the football job at hand, and instead being critical of his own mistakes in the first two games. Through two games, however, Luck leads all preseason QBs with 363 passing yards while completing 26 of 41 throws, with two TD passes and two picks.

"He doesn’t play like a rookie," said Colts PK Adam Vinatieri to the AP after the Steelers game.

New Colts head coach Chuck Pagano will stick with the usual third preseason formula and play his starters, including Luck, well into the third quarter on Saturday.

Other developments of note in Indy’s preseason include the defense quickly adapting to the 3-4 looks that Pagano imported from his most recent coaching assignment as the Ravens’ defensive coordinator, with sorts such as former DE Jerry Hughes (now an OLB in the 3-4) beginning to flourish. Pagano’s stop unit has endured some injuries at the LB spots but to this point has expressed no interest in re-signing Gary Brackett, who was released in the offseason.

Other rookies besides Luck are also making an impression this summer with Indy. Wideouts LaVon Brazill (Ohio U) and T.Y. Hilton (Florida International) have taken advantage of more snaps with Austin Collie limited by a concussion, and rookie TEs Dwayne Allen (Clemson’s Mackey Award winner who has been extremely impressive) and Luck’s Stanford buddy Coby Fleener have also contributed positively.

Note that these sides have had opposite pointspread success in the first two preseason games, with Indy covering both and Washington dropping each of its spread decisions to date. Shanahan, who fared well vs. the lien in preseason at Denver, is only 5-5 vs. the spread in exhibitions with the 'Skins, although note that his Washington teams have covered the third preseason game each of the past two years.

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Pittsburgh Steelers In Buffalo To Battle Bills

If the Pittsburgh Steelers first two preseason games are any indication, then Saturday’s night Week 3 contest at the Buffalo Bills will be very closely contested.

Ralph Wilson Stadium in Buffalo will be the site of the kickoff at 7:00 p.m. (ET). The Don Best odds screen lists Pittsburgh as 2-2½ point favorites after opening as 1-point ‘dogs. The total has had more modest movement from 39½ up to 40½.

The Steelers' first game was a 24-23 loss at Philadelphia, a ‘push’ as 1-point underdogs. The game-winner was a 51-yard field goal from Alex Henery with 12 seconds left. Pittsburgh turned the tables last Sunday night versus Indy, getting a 26-24 home win (as 4-point favorites) with a field goal of its own with 20 ticks remaining.

The ‘over’ has easily gone 2-0 after closing at 35 and 38 points respectively.

Coach Mike Tomlin is just 40-years-old, but in his sixth-year and has a Super Bowl title under his belt (2008). He’s used to dealing with distractions and this offseason is certainly no exception with a new offensive coordinator in Todd Haley and the holdout of speedy receiver Mike Wallace.

Wallace is expected to sign his restricted tender and report to the team this weekend. However, it will be a task just getting him up to speed on Haley’s system by the regular season opener. Ben Roethlisberger has been efficient in the preseason (12-of-17, 133 yards in total) with Antonio Brown a great target, but he needs Wallace once the bullets fly for real.

Backup quarterback Byron Leftwich should see time in the second half this week after sitting out the Indy game. The team let Charlie Batch and Jerrod Johnson presumably battle for the third-string job in that one.

Pittsburgh will need to rely on backup running backs with Isaac Redman (groin) expected to sit and Rashard Mendenhall (knee) definitely out. Jonathan Dwyer looked good last week with 43 yards on just eight carries.

Linebacker has also been a big injury concern with James Harrison and his backup Jason Worilds both out with knee injuries. Chris Carter, a promising fifth round pick out of Fresno State in 2011, has been getting his chance to impress defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau.

The fiery LeBeau doesn’t care that these are preseason games and will implore his ‘D’ to allow less than the 24-points of the first two contests.

The Bills have big expectations this year after high-profile free agent signings of pass rushers Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. Oddsmakers still put them way behind New England in the AFC East, but they are neck-and-neck with the Jets and a second-place division finish is needed to appease the fans.

Coach Chan Gailey’s guys have lost both exhibition games (1-1 ATS), 7-6 at home to Washington and 36-14 at Minnesota last Friday. Starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was 8-of-11 for 58 yards in four possessions last week, resulting in seven points.

The competition at quarterback is for the backup position and Vince Young (also a new free agent) moved ahead of Tyler Thigpen after going 8-of-14 for 123 yards vs. Minny. Expect Young to get the majority of the second-half work on Saturday, with Thigpen limited if he plays at all.

Buffalo is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in its last seven exhibition games overall. Week 3 of the preseason always means the most to coaches and Gailey really wants a good performance in front of the home fans and against a quality opponent.

Getting cornerback Terrence McGee (knee) back for the first time this preseason will help, but it will take a total team effort to beat Pittsburgh.

[StarDust Bum]

Saints Host Houston Texans At Superdome

Although the Houston Texans are only a decade old, the connection between the city and the New Orleans Saints dates to the inception of the Saints’ franchise in 1967. John Mecom, Jr. was a 27-year-old oil man and Houston native when he became the first owner of the Saints franchise, and for several years New Orleans and the old Houston Oilers, also geographic rivals on the Gulf Coast, had a lively series that would renew each preseason, the first two games of which took place before the AFL-NFL merger in 1970.

The initial New Orleans-Houston meeting was at the Astrodome on August 18, 1968, when the Oilers rallied from a 23-7 deficit entering the fourth quarter to post a 24-23 win. Future HOF DB Ken Houston began the comeback when he took back a Bill Kilmer interception 39 yards for a TD. In the ‘68 interleague portion of the preseason, teams were required to pass or run (and not kick) the PATs, and QB Pete Beathard hit WR Mac Haik for the conversion to cut the score to 23-14.

A John Wittenborn field goal cut the deficit to 23-17 before Beathard engineered a last-minute TD drive, culminated by his 6-yard scramble TD with 56 seconds to play. Oiler RB Sid Blanks then swept around right end for the conversion and a 24-23 Houston win.

The Oilers had less trouble the following year at old Tulane Stadium, beating the Saints 30-14 on September 6, 1969. Houston’s defense set up three scores, including a 37-yard interception TD by DB Miller Farr, while SMU rookie Jerry Levias returned a punt 76 yards for a score. Oilers rookie PK Roy Gerela also kicked three field goals. The crowd of 76,932 was the largest ever for a preseason Saints game and gave a rousing halftime welcome to astronaut Michael Collins, in attendance after serving as captain of the command module on the recently-completed Apollo 11 moon voyage.

Fast-forward 43 years to the Superdome on Saturday night for the next installment of Houston vs. New Orleans, although this time it will be the Texans, not the old Oilers, facing the Saints. The Don Best Pro Odds screen notes New Orleans as a 3-point favorite at the vast majority of Las Vegas sports books, with the total hovering between 41 and 41½.

Kickoff time is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. (ET) with national TV coverage provided by CBS.

Much like the old Oilers-Saints rivalry, Texans-Saints is becoming a preseason ritual in the Gulf states as well. The teams have met in each of the last four preseasons, splitting those games straight up and vs. the number, although this will be the first time in that stretch that the meeting takes place in Week 3 (it had been the second game between 2008-11). Houston prevailed last year, 27-14.

The 2012 preseason has been a celebration thus far for the Texans, a year removed from their first AFC South title and playoff berth. Impressive wins over the Panthers (26-13) and 49ers (20-9) have featured solid work from defensive coordinator Wade Phillips’ platoon, which has allowed only 202 ypg.

Those wins and spread covers have also improved Texans head coach Gary Kubiak to a 5-1 preseason mark vs. the spread since a year ago.

Despite the solid defensive showing in the first two games, Phillips is looking for improvement on the run defense which allowed the 49ers to gouge out 94 yards on the ground in the first half last week. The Texans might again be without DE J.J. Watt (elbow) and NT Shaun Cody (back), each of whom likely to be sidelined until the regular-season opener vs. Miami.

Encouraging for the Texans, however, has been the progress of QB Matt Schaub as he returns from last year’s foot injury that sidelined him for the last portion of the season. After looking a bit rusty in the Carolina opener, Schaub completed 11 of 14 passes vs. the 49ers. Schaub likely sits out the final preseason game at Minnesota, and like most starters probably works into the third quarter on Saturday night.

Schaub’s top receiving target, WR Andre Johnson, is also back to active duty after making his 2012 debut against the 49ers. Johnson had been slowed by a mild groin strain earlier in training camp. Although the real star for the Texans in the early going has been mighty-mite kick returner Trindon Holliday, the ex-North Carolina Tar Heel who has returned a kickoff and a punt for TDs in the first two weeks.

Meanwhile, the Saints are slowly working out the kinks in their offense that finally began to resemble itself last week vs. Jacksonville. Though New Orleans lost that one vs. the Jags, 27-24, and has suffered back-to-back preseason defeats, the offense finally seems to be making some progress after a slowish start in the preseason openers vs. the Cardinals and Patriots.

Drew Brees completed 10-of-13 passes vs. Jacksonville and figures to get a longer look into the third quarter with most of the starters on Saturday night. New Orleans could still be minus RB Darren Sproles and TE Jimmy Graham, however, as each look to recover from minor injuries to be ready for the regular-season opener vs. the Redskins.

If there is some concern on the New Orleans side, it suddenly involves the defense, which had seemed to absorb new coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s schemes but regressed in the Jacksonville game when blowing several tackles.

In related news, the Saints officially announced that OL coach Aaron Kromer will be the “interim interim coach” for the first six games of the regular season when “official interim” coach Joe Vitt serves a league-mandated six-game suspension for his role in the “Bounty-Gate” scandal.

Note that the result vs. the Jaguars was the first 'over' for the Saints this preseason and more resembled past performances that saw New Orleans 'over' 9-3 in preseason games between 2008-11.

[StarDust Bum]

Oakland Raiders Get Visit From Detroit Lions

The Oakland Raiders look for their first preseason win since September 2010 when they host the Detroit Lions on Saturday night.

Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum is the venue for the 7:00 p.m. (ET) start. The Don Best NFL odds screen has had significant movement in both the pointspread and total. Detroit is a 3-point favorite after opening as a pick ’em, while the total is 44 after starting at 41.

There has been upwards movement on almost all the totals for Week 3 of the NFL preseason, when most starters play at least the first half. That was the case with the three played on Thursday night and two ended up going ‘over’ the closing numbers.

The Raiders have a new coach in Dennis Allen, but he hasn’t turned around their preseason futility yet. A 3-0 home loss to Dallas on August 13 was followed by a much higher scoring 31-27 defeat at Arizona four days later. They at least covered the spread in the desert as 4½-point underdogs.

Oakland is now 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in its last six exhibition games.

Quarterback Carson Palmer needs to improve from last year (80.5 QB rating) after being acquired from Cincinnati mid-season. However, he has to learn a new system with new offensive coordinator Greg Knapp, and his combined stats the first two games (16-of-30, 140 yards, zero TDs and two INTs) haven’t been great.

Backup Matt Leinart hurt his right index finger last game and might sit. Former Ohio State Buckeye Terrelle Pryor will play a lot in the second half if Leinart can't go.

All the Raiders quarterbacks would prefer better health for their receivers, but Denarius Moore (hamstring) and Jacoby Ford (foot) are out and Darrius Heyward-Bey (shoulder) are each questionable for Saturday's contest.

Running back Darren McFadden will get a bigger workload this year with Michael Bush leaving for Chicago, especially around the goal line. McFadden had nine carries last week for 34 yards and was overthrown by Palmer on a sure touchdown pass.

Detroit started out the preseason with a 19-17 home loss to Cleveland as 3-point favorites, but looked much better last Friday on the road, a 27-12 win at Baltimore as 3-point ‘dogs.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford surprisingly struggled against the Browns, generating no points in three drives and having a pick, but looked in midseason form last week (12-of-17 for 184 yards, two TDs and no picks). Calvin ‘Megatron’ Johnson had 111 of those yards.

Shaun Hill is one of the better backups in the league and should continue to play well when he sees second-half action on Saturday. Former Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore is fighting for a roster spot, but doesn’t have the arm to challenge Hill.

Detroit should be very good on offense this year, despite a questionable running game. Help could come this week with Mikel Leshoure (hamstring) likely making his NFL debut.

Safety Louis Delmas (knee) and defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch (knee) should both be missing from an already questionable defense.

These teams met in Oakland last December in the regular season. Detroit trailed 27-14 after an Aaron Curry fumble return for a touchdown with 7:48 remaining. However, two TD passes from Stafford in the final five minutes pulled out a thrilling 28-27 win. He finished with 391 passing yards, spoiling a 367-yard effort from Palmer.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday Preseason Tips

August 24, 2012

Colts at Redskins (-3 ½, 43) - 4:00 PM EST

The battle of the top two picks from this past April's draft takes place in the Nation's Capital as Andrew Luck squares off against Robert Griffin III. Indianapolis owns a perfect 2-0 record against the spread, in spite of falling at Pittsburgh last Sunday night, 26-24. The Colts cashed as four-point underdogs, one week after blowing out the Rams in Luck's debut.

The Redskins put together a massive rally in their second preseason contest before falling 33-31 at Chicago. Washington overcame a 30-10 deficit with three unanswered touchdowns, but Robbie Gould's 57-yard field goal in the final minute gave Chicago the win and the cover as one-point favorites. Griffin III failed to throw a touchdown pass at Chicago after tossing a 20-yard score to Pierre Garcon at Buffalo in the preseason opener.

The Colts have always been a tough preseason team to judge simply because of the Peyton Manning factor for years. Luck has managed to hit two 'overs' through two exhibition games in spite of tossing a pair of interceptions in last week's loss to the Steelers. The Redskins are basically a coin-flip proposition at home the last three preseasons, posting a 3-3 SU record, but have covered four times.

Steelers (-2 ½, 40) at Bills - 7:00 PM EST

Pittsburgh has been involved in a pair of close-shave contests the first two weeks of the preseason, playing two games decided by a combined five points. The Steelers didn't get the cash last Sunday against the Colts, one week after squandering a 13-0 lead in a road loss at Philadelphia. The Bills are struggling offensively through two games, mustering just 20 points so far, including one touchdown pass from Ryan Fitzpatrick.

In Buffalo's 36-14 blowout loss at Minnesota last week, the Vikings scored their final two touchdowns on interception returns from Audie Cole. The game was pushed 'over' the total of 37, as the Vikings led the Bills, 19-14 with four minutes remaining in regulation. Buffalo's defense didn't play as poorly as the score indicated, as the Vikings kicked five field goals to go along with the two defensive touchdowns.

The Bills aren't a great preseason play from the pointspread angle, going 1-6 SU/ATS the last seven exhibition games. The Steelers haven't performed well away from Heinz Field in the preseason by compiling a 3-5-1 SU/ATS since 2008 on the road.

Lions (-3, 43 ½) at Raiders - 7:00 PM EST

Oakland is still seeking its first preseason victory following two losses by a combined seven points against Dallas and Arizona. The Raiders failed to score in the opener against the Cowboys, while putting up just one offensive touchdown in last week's 31-27 defeat to the Cardinals. Dennis Allen's team held the ball for 35 minutes last Friday, as the Raiders ended a seven-game ATS winless streak in the preseason by barely cashing as 4 ½-point 'dogs.

The Lions rebounded from an opening week home loss to the Browns with an impressive 27-12 trouncing of the Ravens last Friday. Detroit won outright as three-point road underdogs (+140 on the moneyline), as Matthew Stafford looked sharp with a pair of touchdown passes to Calvin Johnson and Titus Young in the second quarter. The Ravens only put up four field goals against the Lions, a stark contrast to the 48 points scored in Thursday's blowout of Jacksonville.

The Silver and Black has turned bettors Black and Blue in the preseason at home by losing five of the last six games dating back to 2009 at O.Co Coliseum. Jim Schwartz takes preseason games seriously in his tenure, while posting a 5-1 SU/ATS the previous six road exhibition contests.

Texans at Saints (-3, 44) - 8:00 PM EST

Houston goes for its third consecutive preseason victory after beating Carolina and San Francisco by double-digits apiece. The Saints play their second home game of the preseason after dropping a 27-24 decision to the Jaguars as six-point favorites. New Orleans had an opportunity to pick up the win, but Jacksonville connected on a touchdown in the final minute for the victory.

Matt Schaub put together an extremely efficient performance against the 49ers, completing 11 of 14 passes for 128 yards and the lone offensive touchdown of the game. Houston finished off the win with an 87-yard punt return for a score by Trindon Holliday, the second special teams touchdown from the former LSU Tiger.

Gary Kubiak's squad continues to cash for backers in the preseason with a 5-1 SU/ATS record the last six games since the start of 2011. Houston is riding a nice 'over' stretch in exhibition action by cashing in seven of the previous 10 contests, in spite of an 'under' against San Francisco. The Saints are going for their sixth consecutive SU/ATS win during the "dress rehearsal" week, even though this is the fourth game of the preseason for New Orleans after playing in the Hall of Fame Game.

Rams at Cowboys (-5 ½, 41) - 8:00 PM EST

St. Louis heads to the Lone Star State after knocking off rival Kansas City in the annual "Governor's Cup," 31-17 as one-point home underdogs. The Rams take on a Cowboys' squad that is playing their first home game of the preseason following a split in California against the Raiders and Chargers. Dallas continues to play without Pro Bowl tight end Jason Witten, who is out with a spleen injury.

The Cowboys blew a 13-7 lead in last week's 28-20 loss at San Diego, as Dallas failed to cover as three-point 'dogs. Jason Garrett's defense held the Chargers to just 53 yards, but the Cowboys' offense scored only two touchdowns in spite of holding the ball for 35 minutes. Dallas is just 1-4 SU/ATS the last five home preseason games since 2009 with the lone victory coming as an underdog in the final week of 2010.

The Rams enter Saturday's action riding a 7-2 ATS run in the preseason since 2010, including a 4-1 SU/ATS mark away from the Edward Jones Dome. The lone loss in this stretch came in the opener at Indianapolis, just the second time in the previous 10 preseason contests in which the Rams scored in single-digits.

[StarDust Bum]

Saints host 2-0 Texans Saturday night

HOUSTON TEXANS (2-0)

at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (1-2)


NFL Preseason Game
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New Orleans -3, Total: 44

The Texans stout defense faces its toughest test of the preseason when they visit the high-powered Saints on Saturday night.

Houston has allowed a total of just 22 points and 394 yards in its first two preseason games, but it will now face a Saints team that racked up 40 points and 454 yards of offense against the Texans in Week 3 of last season. QB Drew Brees threw for 370 yards and 3 TD that game, and since he is set to play at least half of Saturday’s contest, it could be another offensive explosion for the Saints on their home turf. The pick here is NEW ORLEANS to win and cover.

This rare four-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Saints:

Play On - Home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by 21 or more points total in their last three preseason games, in non-conference games. (28-4 since 1993.) (87.5%, +23.6 units. Rating = 4*).

These two clubs will be matching up for the fifth straight preseason and sixth time since 2002. Houston is 3-2 in these previous five matchups, including a 27-14 win last season. The Texans offense has been solid so far in the preseason with 46 points and a balanced attack of 293 rushing yards and 261 passing yards in the two games. Starting QB Matt Schaub was outstanding against the Saints last regular season, throwing for 373 yards and 3 TD. He was also dialed in last week against San Francisco, completing 11-of-14 passes for 128 yards and a TD to Lestar Jean. It also helps the offense that WR Andre Johnson is back healthy. He caught a 43-yard pass from Schaub and added a 6-yard reception in his preseason debut last week. The Texans defense has racked up the second-most sacks in the preseason (10), despite star DE J.J. Watt being out with a dislocated elbow.

Although the Saints lost 27-24 to Jacksonville last week, Brees was in midseason form, connecting on 10-of-13 passes for 133 yards and a touchdown. No. 2 QB Chase Daniel was also outstanding, going 16-for-21 for 185 yards and 2 TD. But the offense isn’t the problem with the Saints, it’s the defense that allowed a subpar QB duo of Blaine Gabbert and Jordan Palmer to throw 3 TD against them last week, on top of allowing the Jags to rush for 170 yards. Part of the ineptitude versus Jacksonville can be blamed on losing three of their top linebackers due to injury -- Curtis Lofton (ankle), David Hawthorne (knee) and Chris Chamberlain (torn ACL). The team acquired Barrett Ruud from Seattle to add depth in the linebacking corps. The New Orleans offense also has a few absences as well, with RB Darren Sproles (knee) and WRs Adrian Arrington (knee) and Nick Toon (foot) all out.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, August 25

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Indianapolis - 4:00 PM ET Washington -3.5 500

Washington - Over 42.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, August 25

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Pittsburgh - 7:00 PM ET Pittsburgh -2.5 500
Buffalo - Under 40.5 500

Detroit - 7:00 PM ET Detroit -3 500
Oakland - Over 43.5 500

Houston - 8:00 PM ET Houston +3 500
New Orleans - Over 43.5 500

St. Louis - 8:00 PM ET St. Louis +5.5 500
Dallas - Over 40.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Playing 36 holes today posting whatever i have now......

NFL

Sunday, August 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Francisco - 4:00 PM ET San Francisco +1 500
Denver - Over 40 500

Carolina - 8:00 PM ET Carolina +3 500
N.Y. Jets - Under 40.5 500

[Tnbreakers]

Thanks for the plays. I think I hit the last 10 games in a row because of your picks. THANKS!

[StarDust Bum]

Hey TNBREAKERS....at least both of us is making some positive $$$$................Lets keep it going......

[StarDust Bum]

Patriots-Giants conclude preseason Wednesday

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (1-2)

at NEW YORK GIANTS (1-2)


NFL Preseason Game
Kickoff: Wednesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -2, Total: 41½

Last year’s Super Bowl participants close out their preseason against one another when the Giants host the Patriots on Wednesday night.

Both clubs are coming off losses, but New York built a 17-7 halftime lead over Chicago with its starters, while New England trailed 30-14 before a couple of garbage touchdowns in the final 4:13 of its matchup with Tampa Bay. The Patriots offense sputtered despite Tom Brady and the first-team offense playing for three quarters. The Giants first-team was sharp against a Bears defense that expects to be much more formidable than Tampa’s, which allowed the most points in the NFL last year (30.9 PPG). Eli Manning completed 17-of-21 passes for 148 yards and a touchdown, and was not sacked once. Everybody knows that the Giants have beaten the Pats in the two of the last five Super Bowls, but they also have New England’s number at home in the preseason, winning four straight meetings since 2002. Expect NEW YORK to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and win this game on Wednesday.

This rare four-star FoxSheets trend also supports the Giants:

Play Against - Road teams (NEW ENGLAND) - after 3 or more consecutive preseason losses against the spread. (34-7 since 1993.) (82.9%, +26.3 units. Rating = 4*).

Brady didn’t have a terrible game against the Bucs, finishing 13-for-20 for 127 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, but he led his team to just two scores in nine drives, with four of those drives going three-and-out. Backup QB Ryan Mallett was much better in the fourth quarter, connecting on 7-of-13 passes for 66 yards and two touchdowns. Despite the poor 5.3 yards per pass attempt, New England’s running game was strong with 5.4 yards per carry, amassing 168 yards on 31 rushes. Stevan Ridley led the way with 87 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries (5.4 YPC) and caught three passes for another 17 yards. Rookie RB Jeff Demps scooted for 41 yards on just three carries. The Patriots defense allowed 283 total yards and did not force a turnover for the first time this preseason.

Although Eli Manning looked to be in late-season form last week, backup QB David Carr most certainly did not. He completed just 7-of-16 passes for 76 yards (4.8 YPA) and an interception (32.3 rating). The Giants running attack stalled for the second straight game, gaining just 66 yards on 20 carries (3.3 YPC), which was actually an improvement from the 58 yards on 32 carries (1.8 YPC) in the win over the Jets in the previous week. The one bright spot against the Bears was rookie David Wilson who rushed for 49 yards on five carries. The rest of the Giants carried the ball 15 times for a paltry 17 yards. The Giants still have a gaggle of players that are at best questionable to play on Monday, including WR Hakeem Nicks (foot) and LT Will Beatty (back injury) on offense. Defensively, New York will likely be without interior linemen Chris Canty (knee), Marvin Austin (back) and Shaun Rogers (leg), LB Michael Boley (hamstring), CB Terrell Thomas (knee) and rookie CB Jayron Hosley (turf toe).

[StarDust Bum]

What bettors need to know: NFL preseason Week 4 (Wednesday)

New England Patriots vs. New York Giants (+2, 41)

We wrote last week that the Pats are more concerned with evaluating new players than wins right now. So it’s tough to say how much Bill Belichick is going to play the starters on Thursday after the Pats saw some nice performances out of backups like QB Ryan Mallett and a number of others on the D-line. The Pats haven’t covered a spread yet in the preseason (0-3) but don’t expect that to keep Belichick up at night.

Tom Coughlin likes to play his first string into the third quarter by this point in the preseason, but he might take a different approach Thursday. Coughlin pulled his starters at halftime last week in a 20-17 loss to the Bears due to some key injuries. He may take a cautious approach this week, though he has promised some snaps to star receiver Hakim Nicks, who appears fully healed from a broken foot in the spring.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins (-4, 40)

This might be an even tighter turnaround for the Bucs than for the Redskins, even though they had an extra day to prepare. Tampa Bay had to cancel its Monday practice due to Hurricane Isaac and the team travels Tuesday to Washington. New head coach Greg Schiano is trying to instill a sense of urgency with his team, which we saw with a number of blitzes and pressure defenses in a win over the Pats on Friday. With that in mind it’s possible we may see the first team play a bit more than with other squads on Thursday.

Washington head coach Mike Shanahan appears to be shutting things down after giving his first team plenty of time through the first three preseason games. Kirk Cousins will start at QB in place of RG3 and though Shanahan won’t say for how long, Cousins said on Monday he’ll be in for about a half. The first team sounds like it’s starting to prepare for Week 1 against the Saints after a strong 30-17 win over the Colts last week.

Miami at Dallas (-2.5, 37)

The Dolphins are 0-3 straight up and against the spread in a preseason that’s been a mess so far. This week appears no different after starting left tackle Jake Long suffered a sprained MCL in practice that will likely keep him out a few weeks. Cornerback Vontae Davis was traded this week in a move that shocked some in the Miami locker room and it leaves the secondary with question marks. Ryan Tannehill will start at QB but some wonder if that’s a good move with the rookie slated to start in Week 1.

The Cowboys are coming off what the team felt was its best performance of the preseason in a 20-19 win over the Rams as 5.5-point faves. It was so good that most of the starters won’t play Wednesday against the Dolphins.

[StarDust Bum]

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Short Sheet

Week 4

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

(TC) New England at NY Giants, 7:00 ET NFL
New England: 1-5 ATS off a non-conference game
NY Giants: 10-3 Over off a loss by 3 points or less

(TC) Tampa Bay at Washington, 7:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 5-1 ATS as an underdog
Washington: 2-13 ATS at home off an Over

Miami at Dallas, 8:30 ET
Miami: 9-3 ATS playing on artificial turf
Dallas: 3-12 ATS off a win by 6 points or less


Thursday, August 30, 2012

Atlanta at Jacksonville, 6:30 ET
Atlanta: 18-6 Over after allowing 14 points or less
Jacksonville: 3-7 ATS off a loss by 10+ points

Minnesota at Houston, 7:00 ET
Minnesota: 9-2 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Houston: 11-2 Under at home off a loss

Buffalo at Detroit, 7:00 ET
Buffalo: 32-16 Under vs. non-conference opponents
Detroit: 6-0 ATS playing with 6 or less days rest

Kansas City at Green Bay, 7:00 ET NFL
Kansas City: 5-17 ATS off BB ATS losses
Green Bay: 31-13 Over as a favorite

New Orleans at Tennessee, 7:00 ET
New Orleans: 7-0 Over off a non-conference game
Tennessee: 10-2 ATS off a win by 6 points or less

Cincinnati at Indianapolis, 7:00 ET
Cincinnati: 1-4 ATS in road games
Indianapolis: 10-2 ATS at home off a loss by 10+ points

NY Jets at Philadelphia, 6:30 ET
NY Jets: 18-4 ATS away vs. NFC East opponents
Philadelphia: 2-12 ATS at home vs. AFC East opponents

Chicago at Cleveland, 7:30 ET
Chicago: 14-4 Over away off an Under
Cleveland: 10-5 ATS after scoring 14 points or less

Carolina at Pittsburgh, 7:30 ET
Carolina: 9-1 ATS off a win as an underdog
Pittsburgh: 2-10 ATS off a road win

(TC) Baltimore at St. Louis, 7:00 ET
Baltimore: 23-9 Under in road games
St. Louis: 5-1 ATS after allowing 300+ passing yards

Oakland at Seattle, 10:00 ET
Oakland: 9-21 ATS vs. NFC West opponents
Seattle: 6-0 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

San Diego at San Franicsco, 10:00 ET
San Diego: 10-3 ATS off a win by 6 points or less
San Francisco: 9-2 Under off a road win

Denver at Arizona, 11:00 ET NFL
Denver: 10-0 ATS off a loss as a home favorite
Arizona: 1-5 ATS off an Over

(TC) = Time Change