The Bum's Preseason Best Bets + Wagering Tips !

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NFLX
Short Sheet

Week 2

Thursday, August 16, 2012

Cincinnati at Atlanta, 8:00 ET FOX
Cincinnati: 9-21 ATS off an ATS win
Atlanta: 12-1 ATS off a loss by 14+ points

Cleveland at Green Bay, 8:00 ET
Cleveland: 1-5 ATS off a non-conference game
Green Bay: 30-12 Over as a favorite


Friday, August 17, 2012

Tennessee at Tampa Bay, 7:30 ET
Tennessee: 13-0 Over away off a loss
Tampa Bay: 10-3 ATS after allowing 50 or less rushing yards

Miami at Carolina, 8:00 ET
Miami: 26-13 ATS as an underdog
Carolina: 10-22 ATS off a loss

Detroit at Baltimore, 8:00 ET FOX
Detroit: 6-0 ATS off a non-conference game
Baltimore: 16-5 Under off an Over

Buffalo at Minnesota, 8:00 ET
Buffalo: 7-18 ATS after allowing 14 points or less
Minnesota: 10-2 Over off a loss by 10+ points

Jacksonville at New Orleans, 8:00 ET
Jacksonville: 13-3 ATS away with a total of 35.5 to 42 points
New Orleans: 5-15 ATS at home off a road game

Oakland at Arizona, 10:00 ET
Oakland: 8-21 ATS vs. NFC West opponents
Arizona: 12-4 Over off BB games scoring 7 or less first-half points


Saturday, August 18, 2012

NY Giants at NY Jets, 7:00 ET NFL
NY Giants: 2-10 ATS off a combined score of 50+ points
NY Jets: 14-4 ATS vs. NY Giants

Kansas City at St. Louis, 8:00 ET
Kansas City: 2-11 ATS in dome stadiums
St. Louis: 16-5 Under at home off a non-conference game

Washington at Chicago, 8:00 ET
Washington: 3-9 ATS after scoring 9 points or less
Chicago: 12-1 Under at home off a home game

San Francisco at Houston, 8:00 ET
San Francisco: 0-7 ATS after gaining 400+ total yards
Houston: 5-1 ATS playing on grass fields

Seattle at Denver, 9:00 ET
Seattle: 16-6 ATS vs. AFC West opponents
Denver: 2-10 ATS at home after allowing 14 points or less

Dallas at San Diego, 9:00 ET NFL
Dallas: 11-19 ATS vs. AFC West opponents
San Diego: 25-10 ATS off a home game


Sunday, August 19, 2012

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh, 8:00 ET NBC
Indianapolis: 27-13 Over as an underdog
Pittsburgh: 5-1 ATS as a favorite


Monday, August 20, 2012

Philadelphia at New England, 8:00 ET ESPN
Philadelphia: 13-28 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
New England: 14-7 ATS off a home win

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NFLX

Week 2

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What Bettors Need to Know: Thursday's NFL preseason action
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Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5, 38)

The Bengals limp into Week 2 of the preseason after suffering some key injuries.

Left guard Travelle Wharton suffered a season-ending knee injury early into the Week 1 preseason win over the New York Jets and the team is looking to either second-year man Clint Boling or third-year practice squad player Otis Hudson to fill that spot.

Second-year quarterback Andy Dalton could be under fire if there are holes in the pass protection. Dalton went 4 for 9 for a total of 54 yards in the preseason opener while the Bengals offense mustered just 213 yards and a rushing touchdown.

"This game, we've got to go out, we've got to keep doing things, try to move the ball," Dalton told reporters of Thursday’s game plan. "When we have chances to make big plays, we've got to make them and capitalize on every opportunity we get."

Cincinnati will also be without linebacker Rey Maualuga, defensive end Carlos Dunlap, running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and safety Taylor Mays, who all suffered injuries in Week 1 of the preseason.

The Falcons got rolled in their preseason opener, falling 31-17 as 1-point favorites to the Baltimore Ravens after jumping out to a 14-0 start.

Starting QB Matt Ryan got a good workout, throwing for 155 yards, one touchdown and one interception on 9-of-15 passing. However, once the starters hit the bench in the second half, Atlanta’s reserves coughed the ball up three times.

Julio Jones and Roddy White are quickly becoming the premier receiving tandem in the NFC and dynamic running back Jacquizz Rodgers showed his speed on offense and special teams. New offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter is exploiting that speed with a regular three wide receiver set.

“That three-wide receiver set, one tight end and one back has been good for us in the past,” Ryan told reporters. “We’ve got talented guys to fill out those positions. It will probably be something that we use.”

The Falcons lost a big cog in their rushing game when rookie full back Bradie Ewing suffered a season-ending knee injury versus the Ravens. Atlanta signed veteran FB Lousaka Polite to take his place.

Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers (-3, 40.5)

The Browns opened their preseason slate with a 19-17 win over the Detroit Lions as 3-point underdogs in Week 1.

Cleveland is leaning towards a heavier work load for its starters this Thursday. This increase in action is because the Browns take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3 of the preseason then turn around and face them in Week 1 of the regular season and don’t want to tip their hand.

Rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden, who passed for 62 yards with an interception and a fumble in the preseason opener, may be one of the few players not having their minutes extended. Head coach Pat Shurmur doesn’t want to mix up his first and second strings too much, claiming “the game gets a little sloppy at times.”

Cleveland will continue to take a solid look at its options in the backfield, with rookie running back and first-round pick Trent Richardson on the mend after knee surgery. Running backs Chris Ogbonnaya, Brandon Jackson and Adonis Thomas got the bulk of the carries in Week 1 of the preseason, with Cleveland marching for 120 rushing yards on 30 carries. Montario Hardesty is penciled in as the starter with Richardson out, but only ran four times for 16 yards Friday.

The Packers took one on the chin in their preseason debut, losing 21-13 to the San Diego Chargers as 2.5-point underdogs.

Green Bay got a scare from running back James Starks, who left Thursday’s game with a turf toe injury. He’ll miss only a week of action but didn’t look sharp before leaving the field, rushing for just 16 yards with a dropped pass and a fumble. That prompted the Packers to sign RB Cedric Benson to bolster the running game. Benson has had his share of off-field troubles but told the media he’s a changed man.

Bettor could see a lot of Benson and the running game with Aaron Rodgers’ top two threats on the sidelines. Receiver Greg Jennings is expected to miss Thursday’s game while recovering from a concussion and tight end Jermichael Finley is doubtful with a bruised quadriceps.

Randall Cobb was the top target against the Chargers, reeling in four catches for 58 yards and second-quarter touchdown from backup Graham Harrell. Harrell is expected to get another long stint under center Thursday.

"I think it’s very important to see as much of Graham Harrell as we possibly can," head coach Mike McCarthy told the media. "That’s where he is in his development. He doesn’t have a lot of playing time under his belt. Really last year is the most significant time he was able to have in a preseason.

"So I feel like he’s a little behind as far as opportunities based on his age and how long he’s been out of college but also No. 1 is Aaron. We have to make sure he gets his allotted work and make sure the No. 1 offense is where we feel we need to be up to the second preseason game."

Rodgers was ushered out quickly after going just 2 for 8 for 16 yards and an interception, caused by a hard hit, in Week 1 of the preseason. Problems on the offensive line have the Packers playing it safe with the face of the franchise. Rodgers may playing limited minutes Thursday.

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Las Vegas Notebook

August 16, 2012

Cantor Gaming unveiled their Wi-Fi wagering system that now allows bettors to be from almost any device while within the state of Nevada.

"Introducing Wi-Fi enabled sports wagering on personal computing devices was a natural goal after releasing our Android-compatible sports wagering application last October," said Lee Amaitis, president and CEO of Cantor Gaming.

Cantor Gaming sports book director Mike Colbert details the easy process of signing up.

"The best way to do it is go on-line to CantorGaming.com where you can download the application to your lap top, any tablet or phone. It will work with any Wi-Fi connection and you can bet everything through it that we offer inside the book."

Colbert also adds that as of now, bettors will have to make deposits through one of the Cantor books around town, but they can use debit or credit cards to fund the account. Colbert didn't say that process with debit or credit cards might be allowed in the near future, but I kind of got the feeling that it was something they are working on to get approved, which will make the entire process the easiest ever seen in Las Vegas.

With Cantor getting into the online business, it now gives Station Casinos Sports Connection some competition. For the last 10 years, Stations has had that market all to itself.

No Parlay Cards??

One of the other new innovations Cantor books will implement this year is not using parlay cards in the sense we have all been used to over the years. They'll have daily cards posted through account wagering that will be offered in the book and on their new apps, but not in the paper format we have been accustomed to.

This is completely revolutionary from the sense they are abandoning a part of the business that comprises close to 15% of all revenues for many books during football season. Parlay Cards generally hold 30% and are wildly popular with folks that have a mild understanding of how to bet sports. These are the same type of people that line up to enter the no-point contests. Las Vegas loves parlay cards.

The Cantor approach is going after the future and getting people acclimated NOW with all the technology they currently have available. By offering daily cards, they no longer will have stale spreads, they don't have to worry about sharp groups playing round-robin cards and in the process, can also offer higher odds.

It will take Las Vegas locals some time to getting used to, but I wouldn't be surprised to see several books follow suit in the same way or another after another year of getting pounded by the groups. But by no means, do I ever see a local chain of properties like Stations, Coasts or South Point eliminating the paper parlay cards altogether. There's too much money at stake.

The M Resort and Palms are both considered locals properties, and both have Cantor Gaming books. I am almost positive the property GM at both will hear some static from angry guests that can't get their cards like they have been accustomed to in the past.

Station Casinos Unveils Football Contests

No one offers more overlay cash on the table to be taken during football season than Station Casinos. It's a business model that has been highly successful over the years and has kept contestants consistently coming through the doors sampling all the other amenities offered throughout the casino.

Stations will again be offering $2 million in cash and prizes for their popular Great Giveaway contest, which has been voted the most popular in the city for 18 straight years. In addition to the cash prizes, the $25 entry fee also allows contestants the opportunity to win cars and houses by either picking the most winners or losers. They even have a category that pays out for being very ordinary called the fiddle-in-the-middle.

A few years ago, Stations came up with the concept of 'Last Man Standing,' a different type of contest from Great Giveaway that appeals to bettors more because it has a point-spread attached. For $25, contestants pick one game a week. If you win that week, you get to pick again the following week until eventually there is one last man, or woman, standing. All the entry fees are returned as prize money and they guarantee $75,000 for the pro contest and $25,000 for the college.

Last year the pro payout was $86,325 and if a contestant is fortunate enough to win both the pro and college contest, Stations kicks in an additional $100,000 bonus. Some of the promotions Stations will continue this year is the $1 million parlay cards offered on Wednesday and Friday's. 15-out-of-15 against the spread pays $100,000 and 20-out-of-20 pays $1 million. They'll also be offering $1 hot dogs and Budweiser's at any of their casinos whenever there is a football game on. Stations definitely makes it hard not to stop by one their 19 books throughout the city. Realistically, it costs you more money to stay home and watch the games.

2013 Masters Odds posted

It didn't take long for the LVH's Jeff Sherman to have enough information needed to post odds on next year's Masters. Tiger Woods didn't win a major this season, but he did come close enough to make Sherman believe he's on the brink of capturing one as he was made the 11/1 favorite. Rory McIlroy is next at 13/2 followed by Phil Michelson (15/1), Luke Donald (20/1) and Lee Westwood (20/1).

Bubba Watson, who won this year's Masters, is listed at 25/1 and Ernie Els, who won the British Open, is once again in the conservative, but respectable, price of 50/1.

Because these odds will have been posted for so long with several thousand new visitors taking action home with them, it's easy to understand why the Masters annually has the most action of any golf tournament.

Barclays Premier League is Back

It's hard to believe that the Premier League is back in action so soon, but the 2012-13 season kicks off this weekend. The LVH has posted Manchester City as the EVEN money favorites to repeat followed by their rival, Manchester United at 9/4. Man City won their first ever Premier League title last season.

The LVH lists Chelsea as the third choice at 9/2, followed by Arsenal (15/1) and Tottenham (25/1). Liverpool, an18-time top division winner is also listed at 25/1. After that, every team is listed at 150/1 or higher with the bottom 12 teams at 1000/1 of higher. The parity in England's proper football league is not quite the same as it is in American football's top division.

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NFL

Thursday, August 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cincinnati - 8:00 PM ET Cincinnati +3.5 500
Atlanta - Under 37.5 500

Cleveland - 8:00 PM ET Green Bay -3 500
Green Bay - Under 40 500

[Letswinalot]

That 4th stringer that the Browns got Lewis was good as hell in game 1 beware of Lewis.

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Raiders Trek To Arizona To Meet Cardinals

We’re still not sure what we were watching last Monday night on ESPN. Pro football, or the English Premier League? Raiders vs. Cowboys? Or was that Everton vs. Stoke City instead?

Forgive us for wondering after watching that bore-fest between Oakland and Dallas, which if bottled might put Sominex out of business. But indeed, that 3-0 scoreline in favor of the Cowboys was the gridiron equivalent to the must mundane of nil-nil draws in the EPL.

Thus, it’s fair to ask what might be in store on Friday night in the desert, when the Silver & Black travel to the Valley of the Sun to do battle with the Arizona Cardinals at U of P Stadium.

The Don Best NFL odds screen notes that the host Cardinals are listed as 5-point favorites at the majority of Las Vegas wagering outlets, with a total hovering between 37 and 37½. Kickoff time in suburban Glendale will be 10:00 p.m. (ET).

For the Big Red to be favored over anyone at this stage of the preseason might be the biggest indictment of Oakland’s unsightly effort on Monday vs. the Cowboys. Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt has not hidden his displeasure at the sloppiness of his team’s first two preseason efforts, a pair of losses and non-covers which began at the Hall of Fame Game two weeks ago in Canton. That 17-10 loss to the Saints and subsequent 27-17 setback at Kansas City (when Arizona was down 17-0 before it knew what hit it) have put “Coach Wiz” on the warpath.

Whisenhunt has been particularly critical of his QB play, which has been shaky at best the first two weeks.

"We had some one-on-one matchups with receivers downfield tonight and didn’t get it to then," said an exasperated Coach Wiz to the Arizona Republic after the defeat vs. the Chiefs. "So those are things that are frustrating."

Kevin Kolb, whose hold on the starting QB job is tenuous at best, figures to get a longer look vs. the Raiders and play most of the first half after completing just 2-of-9 passes for 25 yards combined in losses vs. the Saints and Chiefs. Remember that Kolb, who was temporarily KO’d with chest and rib soreness after absorbing a big hit in the New Orleans, missed seven games due to injury last season.

John Skelton, who helped the Cards to win five of six down the stretch last season, has looked slightly better than Kolb at the QB spot in the early going, completing 7-of-13 passes and moving more comfortably within the pocket. He’ll get a look in at least the third quarter and maybe bits of the second as his candidacy to replace Kolb seems to be gaining momentum in the Valley.

One added note is that San Diego State rookie QB Ryan Lindley, who has flashed some upside in the first two games, will likely get a look in the second half as he hopes to cement his status as the third QB ahead of journeyman Richard Bartel. Lindley has moved the Cards on a few preseason drives and has looked far from helpless in his stints the past few weeks.

Whisenhunt is hopeful that RBs Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams will make their preseason debuts against the Raiders after being limited by knee issues earlier in the preseason.

Whisenhunt is also hoping that a return home will benefit the Cardinals, which was not only on the road for its first two games but spent the week prior to the Kansas City game practicing with the Chiefs in St. Joseph, Mo.

Meanwhile, head coach Dennis Allen’s Raiders debut on Monday is best forgotten by Oakland fans, but the Raiders’ inefficiency was cause for alarm against a Cowboys squad that was not expected to put forth a big effort on Monday night.

In truth, however, preseason always figured as a work in progress for Oakland, which is installing a new offense, complete with a zone-blocking scheme and plenty of rollouts and bootlegs by the QBs, for coordinator Greg Knapp. Carson Palmer hardly sounded the panic alarm after the Dallas opener, reiterating that summertime was an opportunity for the new “O” to work out its kinks in time for the regular-season opener September 10 vs. the Chargers.

But there are plenty of kinks, and neither Palmer nor slow-footed backup QB Matt Leinart appeared very comfy at the controls on Monday night. Expect more struggles before the “O” smooths out its rough spots, with the strike force also hoping that ex-Ohio State QB Terrelle Pryor builds upon a few encouraging moments in the opener vs. Dallas to perhaps make a bid for the backup spot behind the so-far unimpressive Leinart (who, it must be noted, could be very pumped-up for this game after being released by Whisenhunt and the Cardinals two summers ago).

Still, the Raider receiving corps appears shallow, and preseason will continue to be an audition for backup roles behind Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey. Jacoby Ford, in particular, needs to redeem himself after several drops and bad routes vs. the Cowboys, while the RB corps will be thinned this week after offseason addittion ex-Carolina RB Mike Goodson suffered a scary neck injury vs. Dallas. Fresno State rookie RB Lonyae Miller expects to get additional work on Friday night.

The Oakland defense, however, could hardly be blamed for the result vs. Dallas, holding the Cowboys scoreless until the fourth quarter of the opener.

Spread-wise, note that home cooking has been a plus for the Big Red the past couple of preseasons, with Arizona 3-0-1 vs. the line at U of P Stadium its last four exhibition home games.

For the Raiders, the struggles vs. Dallas in Allen’s debut continued preseason woes that have stretched back to the Hue Jackson and Tom Cable regimes, as Oakland has now dropped seven straight spread decisions in exhibition play. The Raiders were also ‘over’ 10-4 in their last 14 preseason games before the ‘under’ vs. Dallas in the opener.

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Ravens And Lions Under Friday Night Lights

If we learned but one thing about the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens from their preseason openers, it's that both appear to have capable backup quarterbacks. They'll each look to score with their first-team QBs in a battle that is part of a six-pack of NFL preseason games Friday night.

Baltimore opened as 3½-point chalk with that number bet down a point early Thursday morning. Conversely, the total has been pushed up from 37½ to 38½ or even 39 at some shops monitored by the Don Best Pro Odds.

Detroit's preseason debut resulted in a 19-17 loss at home to the Cleveland Browns. The Lions closed laying three at most shops after opening -4½. Cleveland's late field goal to win it hung up a lot of 36-point wagers Matt Stafford was ineffective in his three series while tossing an interception, but the Lions still managed to put a couple of TDs on the board under the guidance of Shaun Hill in relief.

Baltimore put a 31-17 whipping on the Falcons down in Atlanta to get its preseason rolling. The Ravens went from +2½ at opening to +1 at the closing bell, and they nearly matched the 35-point total on their own. The Falcons raced to a 14-zip lead early in the second quarter with Matt Ryan at the helm and finding Felix Jones downfield with relative ease, plus Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers handling the Atlanta ground chores. The Ravens defense was shoddy early and managed to rally against Falcon backups thanks to Curtis Painter's three touchdown tosses in relief of Joe Flacco.

Painter got most of the accolades with the three scoring strikes, but the truth is that Flacco enjoyed a very nice evening from the outset against a porous Falcons secondary, and even former Va Tech star Tyrod Taylor flashed his dual-threat nature as the No. 3 arm in the rotation.

Stafford, on the other hand, might be feeling the need to dazzle a bit more in this game. Not that Shaun Hill is an immediate threat to Stafford's job, just an expectation that he will want to put some points on the board while he's on the clock. It could be an interesting game if a tight score comes down to the third-stringers under center, Taylor and Detroit rookie Kellen Moore who had a rough NFL debut (4-for-14, 1 INT).

One recent injury development for the Lions is defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch. The veteran out of Nebraska injured a knee in practice and was said to be "week-to-week" by head coach Jim Schwartz. Fellow DE Earl Avril is also not expected to play after arriving in camp late following a contract dispute, leaving the Lions light on stop unit ends for this game. Lawrence Jackson and Willie Young, along with free agent pickup Everett Brown from Carolina, should get the bulk of the reps.

Baltimore's thinnest spot is at tight end where neither Ed Dickson nor Dennis Pitta will play. The duo combined for 94 receptions a year ago and may not play this entire preseason while recouping from shoulder and hand injuries respectively.

Baltimore is projected in the 9½-10 win range at various outlets, Detroit down a notch to 9-flat. The Ravens can be fetched for anywhere from 12/1 to 18/1 on Super Bowl futures with the Lions in the 20/1 to 25/1 range.

Detroit and Baltimore are also meeting on the diamond Friday night when the Orioles and Tigers begin a weekend series at Comerica Park and previewed here at Don Best.

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Jaguars In Big Easy To Tackle The Saints

We know it was only the preseason opener. But after enduring a lot of losing and extremely-tedious football the past few years, Jacksonville fans are downright giddy after their Jaguars staged a wild rally to overcome the defending Super Bowl champion Giants by a 32-31 count in their preseason opener last Saturday night at EverBank Field.

If nothing else, the Jags appear jazzed for preseason games under new head coach Mike Mularkey, who wants to instill the winning attitude and culture from the get-go in his new assignment.

But the test on Friday night will be a bit different, because Jacksonville has to take its act on the road for the first time this preseason. And host New Orleans, glad to finally play a game in the friendly Superdome after two weeks on the road, figures to offer a stiffer test for the upstart Jags than did the low-key Giants a week ago in their first home game since the suspension of head coach Sean Payton and the offseason “Bounty-Gate” scandal.

The Don Best Pro Odds screen notes that the Saints are listed as 6½-point favorites at almost every Las Vegas sports book, with the total at 39 or 39½, depending upon the outlet. Kickoff time for the Friday night clash in the Big Easy will be 8:00 p.m. (ET).

Although New Orleans has looked very ho-hum in splitting its first two games (but covering the number in each) vs. the Cardinals and Patriots, NFC South observers have taken note of how quickly the Saints seem to be absorbing new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s more-complicated schemes and the position adjustments he authorized in the offseason.

The new Spagnuolo “D” has allowed only one TD in each of the first two games (and the score by New England last Thursday came against third-stringers) as the platoon has applied constant pressure to opposing QBs. The “Spags” stop unit has already forced four turnovers (three picks and a fumble recovery), have tackled confidently and seem comfy in Spagnuolo’s varied zone looks.

All of this figures to cause potential problems for the Jacksonville offense, which has been thinned in summer by various injuries along the OL and will almost assuredly be minus starting LT Eugene Monroe on Friday night after he suffered a possible concussion in practice during the week.

New Orleans fans, however, are waiting to see a bit more from their own offense that has generated just 23 points in the first two preseason games. Drew Brees is on record that the Saints must begin to pick up the speed, and expect the ex-Purdue star to be at the controls for most of the first half on Friday night before giving the reins to backup Chase Daniel, who is being encouraged to run a bit more from the pocket when opportunities present themselves.

Look for Brees to begin fast-forwarding his preparation in the next two preseason games as he makes up for missing pre-camp OTAs while involved in a contract dispute.

The status of TE Jimmy Graham, who suffered a back injury (not deemed serious) prior to the New England game and missed the 7-6 loss to the Patriots, is doubtful and he will likely be held out as a precautionary measure on Friday night. Eleven-year vet TE Daniel Graham has just been signed to provide added depth at the position. Running back Darren Sproles, who suffered a minor knee injury vs. the Patriots, will also likely be held out vs. the Jags.

Jacksonville fans who were excited about the comeback win over the Giants, however, might be better advised to temper their enthusiasm. The late rally featured deep reserves and was orchestrated by 3rd-string QB Jordan Palmer (Carson’s younger brother and former UTEP star). Moreover, decorated RB Maurice Jones-Drew, the NFL’s leading rusher a year ago, remains out of camp due to contract squabbles.

Though Rashad Jennings and Keith Toston ran well in Jones-Drew’s absence in the preseason opener vs. the G-Men, the ongoing OL issues could undermine the infantry. Consider that those problems up front also contributed to six sacks of Jag QBs in the opener.

Mularkey is also going to want to give a longer look to top two QBs Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne on Friday, although neither was as impressive as Palmer was in deep relief last week. Gabbert did lead an early TD drive before looking shaky on the Jags’ second possession, however, and likely plays into the second quarter on Friday before Henne gets another look.

Friday might also mark the debut of J’ville’s first-round draft pick, WR Justin Blackmon, who finally signed his contract on August 6 and could see his first pro action vs. the Saints.

The Saints, who covered nine of their last 13 preseason games under Payton entering this season, are now 2-0 vs. the number in exhibitions for interim head coach Joe Vitt. The previous New Orleans ‘over’ preseason pattern, however, has yet to be on display this summer with a pair of clear ‘unders’ the first two games.

As for Jacksonville, the first game with Mularkey in charge continued the Jags’ recent ‘over’ preseason trend that extends back into the later days of the Jack Del Rio regime (Jags now ‘over’ 9-3 their last 12 in preseason).

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Friday Preseason Tips

August 16, 2012

The Friday NFL card is loaded with six games, as teams are showcasing their starting units more this week than in their preseason openers. Only three of the 12 clubs have a win so far in the exhibition season (Buccaneers, Saints, and Ravens), while each game displays a total between 37 and 39. Heading into Friday's action, preseason favorites own a 7-11-1 ATS record, while the 'over' is profiting at 11-7-1 through 19 contests. We'll take a look at all six games, as things start off in Tampa Bay with the Bucs laying a handful of points.

Titans at Buccaneers (-2 ½, 37 ½) - 7:30 PM EST

Tampa Bay's passing game put together a meticulous effort in the first half of last Friday's 20-7 victory at Miami as three-point underdogs. Josh Freeman and Dan Orlovsky combined for just one incompletion in 13 attempts, while the Bucs cashed in on a pair of short rushing touchdowns. The Bucs head home to welcome in the Titans, who made the cross-country trek to Seattle last Saturday and left with a 27-17 defeat as three-point 'dogs.

The Titans and Seahawks game sailed 'over' the total of 36 thanks to a defensive and special teams score, while Chris Johnson rushed for just eight yards on five carries. Tampa Bay owns a 6-2 ATS mark in the preseason since 2010, including a 3-1 ATS record in the favorite role. There aren't many definitive preseason trends for the Titans under Mike Munchak, as Tennessee is 3-2 ATS and 3-2 to the 'under' in five career exhibition contests.

Dolphins at Panthers (-3, 37) - 8:00 PM EST

Both these clubs came off losses as home favorites last week, as Miami tries to figure out its murky quarterback situation. Following the news of David Garrard's knee surgery, the Dolphins turned to incumbent starter Matt Moore, who was unimpressive by throwing for 79 yards and an interception against Tampa Bay. Rookie Ryan Tannehill stole some of the headlines from that 13-point defeat by racking up 167 yards and a touchdown, as the former Texas A&M quarterback looks for more playing time on Friday.

The Panthers are set with their quarterback position as last season's top pick Cam Newton played sparingly in a 23-13 setback to the Texans. Carolina's lone touchdown came from backup running back Tauren Poole, while the Panthers held the ball for just 22 minutes. Ron Rivera's club is 1-4 SU/ATS in five preseason contests since last August, as the Panthers have scored 17 points or less four times. The Dolphins have cashed the 'under' in four consecutive preseason games, while none of the contests have eclipsed 30 total points.

Lions at Ravens (-2 ½, 39) - 8:00 PM EST

Baltimore continues to be the most dominating preseason team over the last three-plus seasons by winning 11 of its past 13 exhibition games. The Ravens rallied past the Falcons for a 31-17 triumph as one-point road underdogs, while scoring 24 unanswered points to close out the game. Baltimore quarterbacks tossed four touchdowns, including three by former Colt Curtis Painter in the second half.

The Lions head to Baltimore after squandering a 14-3 lead in a 19-17 home loss to Cleveland, as the Browns cashed in the road 'dog role. Detroit fell to 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS in preseason since the start of the 2009, including a 5-2 ATS mark when receiving points. The Ravens' starters are expected to play the entire first half, while the Lions look to avoid consecutive losses in the postseason since 2007.

Bills at Vikings (-2 ½, 37) - 8:00 PM EST

Minnesota heads back to **** of America Field for its home opener as the Vikings go for their first preseason victory. Leslie Frazier's offense tallied just two field goals, while Minnesota and San Francisco combined for a scoreless second half in a 17-6 loss as three-point underdogs. The Vikings will be without star running back Adrian Peterson once again, as he continues to rehab from a torn ACL suffered last December. The Bills travel to Minneapolis off a thrilling 7-6 home loss to the Redskins, as Buffalo amassed only 219 yards of offense and a pair of field goals.

Buffalo managed a cover as three-point home underdogs, but Chan Gailey's club has lost five of their previous six preseason contests since 2010. The offense hasn't showed up for the Bills in the exhibition season, posting 10 points or less in four of the last five preseason games. Buffalo's starters are slated to take the field for 20 plays, as Ryan Fitzpatrick, Vince Young, and Tyler Thigpen will round out the quarterback rotation.

Jaguars at Saints (-6 ½, 39) - 8:00 PM EST

Jacksonville made a late rally as the Jags overcame a 24-7 deficit to stun the Giants, 32-31. The Jags failed to cover as 2 ½-point home favorites, the fifth straight ATS loss for Jacksonville in preseason action. The Saints return to the Superdome for their preseason home opener following a win over the Cardinals and a 7-6 defeat at New England. New Orleans is going through plenty of issues off the field with "Spygate," as the Saints have easily finished 'under' the total in each of the first two exhibition games.

The Saints are 2-0 ATS through two preseason contests, while covering seven of their past eight during the exhibition season. The offensive woes this preseason is uncharacteristic of New Orleans, who possessed a 9-2 stretch to the 'over' from 2009 through 2011 prior to the back-to-back 'unders' this month. The last time the Jaguars cashed tickets in the preseason came back in the final game of 2010, a 13-9 home victory over the Falcons.

Raiders at Cardinals (-5, 37 ½) - 10:00 PM EST

Arizona seeks its first preseason victory following losses to New Orleans and Kansas City, as the Cardinals play their first game at University of Phoenix Stadium. Ken Whisenhunt's squad was buried from the start against the Chiefs last week, falling behind 14-0 before dropping a 27-14 decision as two-point road 'dogs. The quarterback battle is heating up in Arizona between Kevin Kolb and John Skelton, as Kolb will get the start against Oakland in spite of completing one pass in five attempts last Friday.

The Raiders played by far the least entertaining game of the preseason in a 3-0 home loss to the Cowboys on Monday night. Oakland missed two field goals and committed two turnovers, but held Dallas to just 54 yards on the ground. The Silver and Black owns an 0-6-1 ATS record the last seven preseason contests, while failing to score a touchdown in three of the previous four exhibition games. Arizona has managed to win three of its last four home preseason games, as the Cardinals have covered three times.

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Best Bets - AFC West

August 17, 2012

No team in the AFC West finished better than 8-8 last season as all four teams went 3-3 within the division and it was very nearly a four-way tie as Kansas City was at 7-9 behind the other three teams at 8-8. This division looks fairly wide open this season as every team could make a case for the top spot and there are some big changes with two new head coaches and a lot of big name players on the rosters changing teams. Here are some predictions for the 2012 NFL season and who will be the best of the AFC West.

Best Team: San Diego Chargers

The Chargers were the only team in the division to have a positive point differential last season, actually being the second-highest scoring team in the AFC. It was not necessarily a popular decision, but the Chargers stuck with veteran coach Norv Turner and while there was some player turnover, the roster has decent talent. San Diego will benefit from a second-place schedule with the benefit of playing the Jets and Titans instead of the Texans and Patriots like the Broncos will which could be a substantial advantage. San Diego was 6-10 ATS last season and the Chargers are nearly synonymous with disappointment, but of this group San Diego appears to be in the best position to produce a winning record and getting to 9-7 might be all it takes to win what should again be a watered-down division.

Best ‘OVER’ Win Totals Bet: Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs could go a number of different directions, but the team played hard behind Romeo Crennel in the final three games last season and played excellent defense down the stretch. The offense suffered injuries to several key players last season and a little better health could make this a very competitive team. The fourth-place schedule doesn’t hurt and it is certainly an advantage despite only being a game out of first place last season. This team was fortunate to be 10-6 in 2010 and that would be a stretch this season, but in this wide-open division, getting to .500 seems reasonable for the Chiefs although the early season schedule is brutal. If the Chiefs stumble out of the gate, it could take another great late-season run to climb back in the picture, but the Chiefs have more upside than the rest of the division.

Best ‘UNDER’ Win Totals Bet: Denver Broncos

The Broncos are really rolling the dice with Peyton Manning and his health. The entire offense makes major changes this season and it could take some time for things to shape up. Denver won’t have the luxury of an easy start to the schedule with a gauntlet to open the year facing Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Houston in the first three weeks and then also playing New England, San Diego, and New Orleans in the first half of the season. This is a team that will have a hard time producing a winning record in the first half of the season, which could raise questions and discontent. The defense got a lot of credit last season, but the Broncos allowed over 24 points per game including allowing 40 or more five times. Value is not on the ‘under’ anymore as this total has dropped significantly, but the Broncos still look like a team headed towards a disappointing season.

Best ATS Performer: Oakland Raiders

The expectations are low for Oakland, but this team was 7-4 at one point last season, looking like a lock for the division title. Oakland is 9-3 in division games the last two years and those are the games that should decide this title. Dennis Allen takes over as Oakland goes through another transition, but he inherits a good offensive line and a running game which should be two key factors that allow the Raiders to be competitive. Allen’s defensive focus should pay dividends in improving a run defense that had big problems at times last season and while the AFC West as a whole will face tough scheduling, the Raiders have a more favorable path in that draw, particularly early in the year. The Raiders are still the Raiders and this is not a reliable franchise, but this team was an underdog eleven times last season and has been .500 or better ATS each of the last three years, as there is often value on this team that few feel comfortable backing.

Best Team to Fade: San Diego Chargers

The Chargers should be the best team in this division, but a turnover prone QB along with a coach that makes many questionable decisions could again be a formula for poor spread results. San Diego was just 6-10 ATS last season and the Chargers were favored in all but five games last season. That could again be the case this year as San Diego should start off the season with a decent record and could be favored in every division game. This is a franchise that has been prone to long losing streaks and painful losses and there will be value going against the Chargers particularly within the division where they have gone just 6-6 the last two years. San Diego’s running game has question marks again this season and the Chargers may again be the one dimensional team that puts up great statistics but can’t win games.

Best ‘OVER’ team: Denver Broncos

The Broncos went on a great mid-season run in 2011 with Tim Tebow getting much of the credit. Those that didn’t want to credit Tebow gave credit to the defense, but in reality the Broncos were not a good defensive team last season. Only three teams in the AFC allowed more points than Denver and the Broncos allowed at least 100 rushing yards in eleven of the final twelve games of the season last year, including the playoffs. Denver had success running the ball last year, but this is likely to be much more of a passing-oriented team and could be a strong ‘over’ team that has to play from behind at times as the Colts occasionally did with Manning in the years the defense struggled. Jack Del Rio has been added to the coaching staff, but he and Fox may have a hard time leading with defense this season even though there are a few elite defensive players on the roster. Denver will be a hard team to get a handle on given the dramatic changes in the last two years and that could lead to some higher scoring games and some deflated totals.

Best ‘UNDER’ team: Kansas City Chiefs

The ‘under’ was 12-4 in Chiefs games last season, yet Kansas City does not have the reputation of having a great defensive team. The Chiefs allowed by far the fewest points in the division last season despite being in fourth place and in the three Crennel coached games Kansas City allowed just 33 total points. In the last 25 games that Crennel has been a head coach for, the ‘under’ is 18-6-1. Kansas City will score more than last season, averaging just over 13 points per game, but the focus will be on running the ball as the Chiefs have the most tenuous QB situation in the division. The tough early-season schedule could lead to some higher scoring games early in the year for Kansas City, but look for that to boost the totals on future Chiefs games and this team should emerge as a quality ‘under’ bet in the second half of the season as arguably four of the best five offensive opponents on the schedule will be in the first four weeks of the season.

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

08/16/12 1-*3-*0 25.00% -*1150 Detail
08/13/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
08/12/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
08/11/12 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
08/10/12 4-*6-*2 40.00% -*1300 Detail
08/09/12 9-*1-*0 90.00% +*3950 Detail
08/05/12 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

Totals 20-*14-*2 58.82% +2300

Friday, August 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tennessee - 7:30 PM ET Tampa Bay -3 500
Tampa Bay - Over 37 500

Miami - 8:00 PM ET Miami +4 500
Carolina - Under 37 500

Detroit - 8:00 PM ET Baltimore -3 500
Baltimore - Under 38.5 500

Buffalo - 8:00 PM ET Buffalo +2.5 500 ( PRESEASON GOW )
Minnesota - Under 37 500

Jacksonville - 8:00 PM ET New Orleans -6.5 500
New Orleans - Over 39 500

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Potential Super Bowl Preview In Houston

Could we be looking at a Super Bowl preview on Saturday night at Reliant Stadium?

The idea is not nearly as far-fetched as it would have seemed at this time a year ago, when the 49ers were going on nearly a decade without a playoff berth, and the Texans had never even reached the postseason. But after both qualified easily for the playoffs, and each won a game after getting there, San Francisco and Houston rate as the two most prohibitive division favorites in all of the NFL this season.

Maybe the Super Bowl preview thing isn’t far-fetched after all.

Oddsmakers are certainly expecting a crackling battle in Houston, as the Don Best NFL odds screen notes the host Texans as 3-point favorites at most Las Vegas wagering outlets, with the ‘total’ mostly at 37 shaded to the ‘under’ at the majority of Nevada sportsbooks. Kickoff time on Saturday night will be 8:00 p.m. (ET).

Both sides are off handy wins in their preseason openers, with Houston particularly solid in its 26-13 win at Carolina. The Texans’ defense, expected to be good, was outstanding last week, holding the Panthers (who admittedly used QB Cam Newton sparingly) to a mere 137 yards of total offense while recording eight sacks. All the more impressive with star LB Brian Cushing out with a virus and DE J.J. Watt sidelined by a dislocated elbow.

Meanwhile, first-round draft pick OLB Whitney Mercilus (Illinois) came off the bench and harassed the Carolina QBs, registering 1 ½ sacks in an impressive debut. The only minor casualty was NT Shaun Cody, who suffered a minor back injury that likely keeps him out of the 49er game.

Coach Gary Kubiak will begin to dig deeper into his offensive playbook this week with starting QB Matt Schaub expected to work well into the second quarter and star WR Andre Johnson, who sat out the Carolina opener after suffering a mild groin strain in the early days of training camp, likely to make his preseason debut. RB Arian Foster, also used sparingly at Carolina, should get a heavier workload vs. the 49ers.

Speaking of Schaub, he was an interested observer to this week’s signing of LT Duane Brown to a multi-year, $53 million contract. Schaub’s contract, set to expire after this season (as was Brown’s before he inked the deal), is expected to be next on the Houston target list.

The Houston QB rotation on Saturday will see Schaub probably play the first 1 ½ quarters before giving way to U of Houston rookie Case Keenum, who will work with the second-team offense and perhaps with deeper backups in the second half. Backup T.J. Yates, who went most of the way in the opener, and John Beck likely get work in the final thirty minutes.

Kubiak has also been impressed this summer with his WR depth, which appeared to be a question mark when camp opened. Former Michigan State wideout Keshawn Martin has been particularly impressive, while ex-LSU star Trindon Holliday opened some eyes on special teams at Charlotte with a 90-yard kickoff return TD.

The O-line, however, was not pleased with its performance in the opener and will look for a sharper effort vs. the 49ers.

As for Jim Harbaugh’s San Francisco squad, it was mostly low-key in a 17-6 win in the opener vs. Minnesota. In fact, the game slowed down so much in the second half that neither team scored in the final thirty minutes.

But Harbaugh can hardly complain, with (knock on wood) no serious maladies to report yet in camp after OLB Aldon Smith’s hip injury deemed minor in the wake of last week’s game. Harbaugh was also pleased with his power running game that accounted for 260 rushing yards vs. the Vikings in the opener, and that was with star RB Frank Gore being rested.

Starting QB Alex Smith likely gets more work vs. Houston after throwing just three passes in the opener, but Harbaugh is likely to take another good look at his other QBs to better determine the identity of Smith’s eventual backup. Second-year ex-Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick has a hold on the job at the moment, and didn’t hurt his candidacy with his highlight-reel 78-yard TD run in the second quarter, but former Wisconsin QB Scott Tolzien generated more buzz and appeared more comfy in the confines of the Harbaugh offense than Kaepernick when completing 10 of 13 throws. Ex-Bucs QB Josh Johnson (who played for Harbaugh at U of San Diego) also did enough to get another look.

The 49ers also flashed plenty of wide receiver depth in the opening week, although first-round draftee WR A.J. Jenkins (Illinois) continued in an inconsistent pattern, as he has done all summer at Santa Clara, dropping two passes after making one dandy 15-yard reception. Speaking of rookies, second-round RB LaMichael James (Oregon) flashed plenty of upside in spot duty and handled punts comfortably.

Aside from Gore, WR Mario Manningham, DE Justin Smith, and PK David Akers were late scratches for the Minnesota game, but all could see action this week.

Preseason trends worth noting include Kubiak’s Houston covering its 8th in the last 10 exhibition games last week at Carolina, while the 49ers’ preseason ‘under’ trend (which extends to the Mike Singletary era) continued vs. the Vikings; San Francisco is now ‘under’ 9-4 its last 13 preseason games.

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Cowboys Try For Better Performance At San Diego

The older among us at Don Best were forced to delve deep into our memory banks to recall a more odorous preseason opener than the one we witnessed last Monday between the Cowboys and Raiders at Oakland, which ended with Dallas on top by a 3-0 count.

And darned if we didn’t uncover a couple of even more tedious exhibition openers from long ago. There was even a 0-0 scoreline in the 1980 Hall of Fame Game between the Chargers and Packers, although that one deserves an asterisk because it was halted in the 4th quarter due to a lightning storm in Canton. For pure boredom and offensive ineptitude, however, it would be hard to top the Bears’ 2-0 win over the Packers in the 1971 preseason opener at old Milwaukee County Stadium.

So, all it took was 41 years to find a more impotent preseason opener offensive display than the Cowboys and Raiders provided last Monday.

Not that any of that makes Dallas fans any more comfy after watching their Cowboys stuck in neutral for most of the night vs. the Silver & Black. Safe to say that the Dallas defense, which posted the big donut when blanking Oakland on Monday, looks a good bit ahead of the offense at the moment.

We’ll see if that holds true again when Jerry Jones’ Cowboys, who after spending the past few days back in their California training camp in Oxnard, trek down the coast to San Diego to face the host Chargers on Saturday night before practicing for a couple of more days at the Charger complex and finally returning to their Texas headquarters thereafter.

Oddsmakers, however, haven’t flinched just because of the reduced Dallas scoreline from Monday night. The Don Best NFL odds screen notes that the Chargers are priced as mostly 3-point favorites around Las Vegas sportsbooks, while the ‘total’ is at a modest 37...or 34 points higher than the Cowboys and Raiders combined to score last Monday night.

Kickoff time on Saturday is 9:00 p.m. (ET) at Qualcomm Stadium, with CBS providing national TV coverage.

Some NFC East scouts weren’t terribly surprised at what they witnessed last Monday in Oakland, especially noting Dallas’ attack-end problems that had been recurring throughout training camp. Those issues mostly had to do with an offensive line that was in restructure mode anyway with additions of free-agent Gs Mackenzy Bernadeau and Nate Livings in the offseason but had endured a debilitating spate of injuries in late July and August. Bernadeau and Livings have been sidelined by hip and hamstring injuries, respectively, while the top three centers (Phil Costa, Bill Nagy, and Kevin Kowalski) were all out for the opener. It is hoped that Costa has recovered enough from his back woes to participate on Saturday, but Nagy was waived earlier this week and Kowalski remains out indefinitely.

Thus, the new-look line has hardly had a chance to develop any continuity in the summer, and only five days after the Oakland ugly-fest would appear unlikely to coagulate in time for this game at San Diego. Moreover, TE Jason Witten is now out until further notice after suffering a lacerated spleen at Oakland, and his availability for the September 5 regular-season opener vs. the Giants is now in doubt.

Another ongoing issue for the Cowboys this summer is the search for a third wideout behind Dez Bryant and Miles Austin. There was even talk of enlisting Terrell Owens for a return engagement in Big D before the Seahawks intervened, but auditions at WR will continue.

On Saturday, expect HC Jason Garrett to give a longer look at first stringers, including QB Tony Romo, who did little in three series vs. the Raiders, managing only one first down and one pass completion. Romo likely goes well into the 2nd Q vs. the Chargers before Kyle Orton and Stephen McGee get their chances at QB later in the game.

Rob Ryan’s defense, which faced a vanilla Raiders scheme on Monday, will likely have more to cope with against Norv Turner’s Chargers, who figure to give QB Philip Rivers work for most of the first half after the Bolts beat Green Bay, 21-13, in their opener last Thursday.

Turner’s QB rotation this week will likely also involve vet Charlie Whitehurst, who has the inside track for backup duties but has been slowed by knee issues this summer and missed the Packers game. LSU rookie Jarrett Lee got the bulk of the work in the opener (playing the last three quarters and completing 15 off 22 passes in the process) and will likely see action again on Saturday, most if not all of it in the second half.

At issue for the Chargers is finding some answers at RB after starter Ryan Mathews went down with a broken collarbone last week vs. the Pack. San Diego, already minus one of last year’s running contributors, Mike Tolbert (who left for Carolina in free agency), is likely going to work 30-year-old vet Ronnie Brown with the first string as it attempts to compensate for Mathews, who will be sidelined up to six weeks. Ex-Syracuse RB Curtis Brinkley is now competing with Brown for feature-back duties in Mathews’ absence.

Moreover, Turner is also concerned about his OL, especially the crucial LT spot as projected starter Jared Gaither has been unable to practice because of back issues.

On the plus side, the Bolts have been encouraged by the summer work of many of their wide receivers as they look to fill the gap created by Vincent Jackson’s FA departure to Tampa Bay. Vincent Brown, in particular, has flourished, and caught a TD pass last Thursday vs. the Pack.

Defensively, San Diego was also thrilled at the efforts of first-round pick Melvin Ingram, the OLB from South Carolina who made quite an impact vs. the Pack, forcing an interception after a thunderous hit on QB Aaron Rodgers. Another defensive rookie, UConn DT Kendall Reyes, made four tackles in his debut game as the Bolt defense looked close to midseason form last Thursday.

Looking at technical factors, the low-scoring opener at Oakland continued a preseason Cowboys ‘totals’ trend that has now seen them go ‘under’ 7-3 in their last ten exhibition games. As for the Bolts, their win and cover vs. the Packers was a slight departure from recent preseason form, especially at home, where they entered last Thursday’s game having dropped five of their last seven spread decisions at Qualcomm in preseason play.

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Jets And Giants Clash In Big Apple Battle

The New York Jets and New York Giants play their annual NFL preseason game on Saturday night and this is as close to regular season intensity as it gets.

Kickoff from shared MetLife Stadium will be at 7:00 p.m. (ET) and broadcast nationally on the NFL Network. The much-hyped Tim Tebow will be making his home debut for the Jets.

The Jets are 1-point favorites on the Don Best odds screen after opening as 2-point ‘dogs. The total has remained steady at 36½.

There is no love lost between these teams with each taking verbal shots in the media against each other the last few years. The Giants got the last laugh with a 29-14 win last December. That killed the Jets' playoff hopes and also helped propel the G-Men towards a second Super Bowl title in five years.

The Giants have won all five regular season meetings (4-0-1 ATS) dating back to 1996. The Jets have controlled the preseason matchups recently, 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS over the last five years, 2-1 SU and ATS since the bombastic Rex Ryan became head coach. That could be a reason for the pointspread move.

The Jets started out their preseason last Friday with a 17-6 loss at Cincinnati as 1-point ‘dogs. All eyes were on the duo of Mark Sanchez and Tebow and while neither did much in the opener, there is no quarterback controversy with Sanchez entrenched as the starter.

The fourth-year Sanchez was just 4-of-6 for 21 yards while playing the first quarter. Tebow didn’t fare much better, 4-of-8 for 27 yards and an interception, although he did show off his scrambling ability. Former Alabama signal caller Greg McElroy is the third-stringer.

Ryan and new offensive coordinator Tony Sparano have vowed to heavily feature the ‘ground and pound’ rushing attack this season. That’s going to be necessary with a very green receiving core outside of the turbulent Santonio Holmes.

Holmes (ribs, back) missed the opener and is expected out Saturday, as is Chaz Schilens (ankle), while Jeremy Kerley (hamstring) is questionable to make his season debut. Rookie Stephen Hill had two catches against Cincy and should play despite jamming a finger in practice on Tuesday.

There is also a key injury on the defensive side of the ball with nose tackle Sione Pouha (back) likely out until the regular season. However, this defense should still be a top-5 unit this year and should perform well against the Giants.

The Giants also lost their preseason opener, 32-31 at Jacksonville last Friday, but covered as 2½-point underdogs. Super Bowl hero Eli Manning played most of the first quarter (4-of-8, 60 yards) before giving way to veteran David Carr and eventually third-string Ryan Perrilloux.

Coach Tom Coughlin’s team did lead Jacksonville 24-7 right before the half, thanks to two TD passes from Carr, but had a 25-7 deficit from there.

None of the quarterbacks will likely have Hakeem Nicks on Saturday. He’s doubtful with his foot injury, leaving Victor Cruz and tight end Martellus Bennett as the two main targets. Jake Ballard and Mario Manningham are both gone from last year’s roster.

The Giants are thin at defensive tackle with Chris Canty (knee) and Shaun Rogers (calf) both out, and Marvin Austin (back) appearing doubtful. That could help the Jets run the ball and take pressure off the banged-up passing attack.

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Saturday Betting Notes

August 18, 2012


N.Y. GIANTS at N.Y. JETS

After hearing about him all summer, the reigning champion Giants are certainly interested in making a statement against Tim Tebow. Consider it the unfortunate curse of being the most popular backup quarterback in NFL history, but the already important preseason encounter between the teams that share MetLife Stadium takes on added significance, polarizing the city due to the likelihood that the Jets chances hinge on this month's GQ cover boy. According to the New York Daily News, Tebow went 2-for-10, got picked off and took four sacks in Thursday's final scrimmage of training camp.

Santonio Holmes won't play for the Jets, nursing a rib injury. That means starter Mark Sanchez and backups Tebow, Greg McElroy and Matt Simms will be working short-handed as far as options, since rookie Jordan White and newcomer Chaz Schilens are definitely out. Another top rookie, Stephen Hill, hurt his right ring finger earlier in the week, while Jeremy Kerley has just recently returned to practice after a hamstring issue. So, yes, there's a fairly good chance Antonio Cromartie's two-way experiment sees the light of the day against the Giants.

The Giants are without Hakeem Nicks (foot), who returned to practice this week but isn't ready for game action. There's a lot of competition behind Nicks and Victor Cruz, so Eli Manning and David Carr will have the luxury of playing with eager targets Jerrel Jernigan, Rueben Randle, Domenik Hixon and Isaiah Stanback, trying to carve out roles and separate themselves.

Despite the advantage at the receiver spot, the Giants have similar attrition on the defensive front. DT Marvin Austin's back issues aren't going away, which makes it likely that he'll be out the entire preseason. DT Chris Canty is already out until at least Week 1 with his knee issue and DT Shaun Rogers has been lost for 2012. Suddenly, a position of strength is no longer deep, as new signees are just getting up to speed. That's a big factor for NYG to start the season, but obviously even more critical against the ground-oriented attack the Jets employ.

Both Rex Ryan and Tom Coughlin have been over-friendly in their preseason careers. Coughlin racked up another in last week's shootout in Jacksonville to get to 42 overs in 66 games, while Ryan's Jets were held down by Cincinnati, making him 8-4-1 in the totals game.

KANSAS CITY at ST. LOUIS

Following last season's injury-riddled and highly irregular preseason that ultimately cost Todd Haley his job, the Chiefs have remained healthy and were among the most impressive teams in Week 1. Matt Cassel shined in his first outing under new coordinator Brian Daboll. This showdown in St. Louis is expected to be a big opportunity for Ricky Stanzi to win the backup QB job over Brady Quinn.

Kansas City's top receiver, Dwayne Bowe, finally signed a contract and reported to camp, though he's not expected to play here.

St. Louis was a 38-3 loser in Indianapolis and put together the most listless peformance of the preseason. Jeff Fisher is counting on a more aggressive approach and plans on seeing more from starter Sam Bradford and the first-string offense, hoping to take advantage of Kansas City's top corner, Brandon Flowers.

Last year's annual in-state rivalry preseason game went the Rams way, 14-10, at Arrowhead.

WASHINGTON at CHICAGO

The Bears will see QB Jay Cutler, RB Matt Forte and DE Julius Peppers start after sitting out last week against Denver. Look for them all to get at least a quarter, while a porous offensive line that badly needs reps is expected to play the entire first half.

Any time Rex Grossman faces the Bears, it's news. He's accepted backing up Robert Griffin III but will have a little something extra for his former team, especially with the Chicago crowd likely to be as ruthless as they were when he wore their uniform. RG3 was impressive in his debut and will play into the second quarter against a defense missing Brian Urlacher, among others.

Last year's top two rushers, Tim Hightower and Roy Helu, remain out for Washington. As a result, likely opening day starter Evan Royster will see early action before giving way to Alfred Morris, a rookie out of Florida Atlantic who has made a strong impression on the coaching staff. He'll get some time with the starters. No active coach has won more preseason games than Mike Shanahan, who racked up his 48th victory in 77 outings last week. He's also an impressive 43-32-2 against the number.

SAN FRANCISCO at HOUSTON

Arian Foster fumbled in his only carry last week, so even though all eyes will continue to be on Matt Schaub as he returns from last year's season-ending injury, look for Houston's All-Pro running back to get an increased workload. Andre Johnson will also be out there, as head coach Gary Kubiak is interested in seeing his best players perform into the second quarter.

Jim Harbaugh is still playing with new toys, but Frank Gore will finally get a few carries after sitting out last week. Kendall Hunter and Brandon Jacobs will still likely get the bulk of the action. Mario Manningham will also be unveiled for the first time, as he Randy Moss and a new-look receiving corps will work with Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick and Josh Johnson, slated to play ahead of Scott Tolzien.

Harbaugh is 3-2 SU and ATS in his brief preseason career, while Gary Kubiak has really done a nice job with the Texans (14-11 SU, 14-9 ATS).

SEATTLE at DENVER

Peyton Manning barely got touched in last week's opener in Chicago, so the plan is for him to continue keeping his uniform clean as he debuts in front of friendly faces at Mile High. It remains to be seen how cautious the Broncos plan on being with him, but it's worth pointing out that he'll be playing behind an offensive line missing right guard Chris Kuper, who fractured his forearm in practice this week.

The story from Seattle's standpoint is Terrell Owens making his debut with the team. It sounds like he'll be catching passes from starter Matt Flynn and exciting rookie Russell Wilson, who was electric in helping net last week's win and cover. Speedster Doug Baldwin will also be back after a bout with a hamstring injury, so the Seahawks will get a better look at what their offense can do. That said, top receiving threat Sidney Rice (shoulder) will again be held out. While it looks like Flynn is a virtual lock to start the season under center, Wilson can make things interesting if he shines again.

Denver's defense won't be at full strength due to cornerback Tracy Porter (abdominal) and safety Quinton Carter (knee) missing from the secondary. Linebackers Danny Trevathan (ankle) and Keith Brooking (hamstring) also missed time, so the depth that is typically a strength won't be in play.

The Seahawks will be debuting their futuristic-looking new road uniforms, a metallic blue with lime green trim that could do long-term damage to your retina if you stare directly at it.

DALLAS at SAN DIEGO

After an ominous debut where the Tony Romo-led first-string offense failed to score in Oakland and lost Jason Witten to a lacerated spleen, the Cowboys hope for a lot more scoring in San Diego. That's the only reason Romo is being exposed for at least a quarter, since Jason Garrett has already said he'd like to see him for a longer turn than he took against the Raiders on Monday night. Kyle Orton will follow, also looking for sharper play. It won't help either that Miles Austin remains out.

Despite an array of offensive line issues and Ryan Mathews having broken his collarbone in the preseason opener, Philip Rivers is slated to get in a substantial workload. Following up will likely be Charlie Whitehurst in his first action of the preseason, while rookie Jarrett Lee is set to mop up. Ronnie Brown is starting at running back.

Cowboys LB DeMarcus Ware has been declared out with a hamstring tweak, so two first-team linebackers will be missing with Anthony Spencer (hamstring) still out. First-round pick Morris Claiborne will start. Dallas is hoping he'll be its shutdown corner, so it will be interesting to see if any of the guys vying to be San Diego's No. 1 receiver can get off on the rookie.