The Bum's Preseason Best Bets + Wagering Tips !

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

08/09/12 9-*1-*0 90.00% +*3950 Detail

08/05/12 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

Totals 9-*3-*0 75.00% +2850

Friday, August 10

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tampa Bay - 7:30 PM ET Miami -2.5 500
Miami - Under 33.5 500

N.Y. Jets - 7:30 PM ET N.Y. Jets +1.5 500
Cincinnati - Over 33.5 500

Cleveland - 7:30 PM ET Detroit -3 500
Detroit - Under 36 500

N.Y. Giants - 7:30 PM ET N.Y. Giants +1 500
Jacksonville - Over 33.5 500

Arizona - 8:00 PM ET Kansas City -3 500
Kansas City - Under 34.5 500

Minnesota - 9:00 PM ET San Francisco -4 500
San Francisco - Over 33 500

[StarDust Bum]

Friday Preseason Tips

August 9, 2012

The second set of preseason games in the NFL takes place on Friday night with a six-pack of contests. Both New York teams are in action on the road, while the Chiefs look to end their preseason woes at home against the Cardinals. We'll begin this preview in the Sunshine State with two new head coaches getting their first crack at a victory.

Buccaneers at Dolphins (-3, 33 ½) - 7:30 PM EST

Miami has moved on from the Tony Sparano era to former Packers' assistant Joe Philbin to take over the reins. The Dolphins are still undecided on their quarterback situation, as David Garrard is listed atop the depth chart, followed by incumbent Matt Moore and rookie Ryan Tannehill. The Bucs started last season at 4-2, but ultimately dropped their final 10 games, costing head coach Raheem Morris his job. Ex-Rutgers coach Greg Schiano replaced Morris on the Tampa Bay sidelines, as the Bucs try to improve on impressive preseason record as an underdog.

Josh Freeman will play the first couple of series for the Bucs, while Dan Orlovsky and Brett Ratliff will see most of the action at quarterback in the second half. Tampa Bay has cashed in three of the last four preseason games in the 'dog role, while the Dolphins covered all three times as a favorite in the 2011 preseason. These two teams normally don't score many points in the preseason, hitting the 'under' in four straight August meetings.

Jets at Bengals (-1 ½, 34) - 7:30 PM EST

The much-anticipated debut of Tim Tebow in a Jets' uniform comes at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati as New York goes for its first win in a preseason opener in Rex Ryan's four-year tenure. The Bengals found a way to qualify for the playoffs in 2011, but now the target is on them heading into this season. The Jets are normally must-watch television just to see what will happen, as Mark Sanchez is tabbed as the starter again at quarterback, followed by Tebow and Greg McElroy. Tebow will see plenty of time, as the former Broncos' signal-caller will likely play two quarters.

Andy Dalton will begin the game under center for the Bengals, while Bruce Gradkowski and Zac Robinson also are slated to take snaps for a majority of the game. The Jets have been a solid preseason 'over' play in Ryan's tenure by cashing in eight of 12 opportunities. Marvin Lewis is a coin-toss proposition in the exhibition season, posting an 18-18 ATS record, but the Bengals just 3-6 ATS the last two preseasons.

Browns at Lions (-3, 36) - 7:30 PM EST

The team with potentially the worst quarterback situation in the league resides in Cleveland, who is banking on former Oklahoma State standout Brandon Weeden. After Cleveland's offense scored 17 points or less in 14 of 16 games last season, the Browns will start Weeden against the Lions, followed by Colt McCoy and Seneca Wallace. Detroit is coming off its first postseason appearance since 1999, as Matthew Stafford is set to play a handful of series on Friday. Shaun Hill and former Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore will see plenty of time, as the Lions have won and covered seven straight preseason contests.

The Browns compiled a 1-3 SU/ATS record in Pat Shurmer's first season at the helm in 2011, while Cleveland cashed the 'over' three times. Jim Schwartz is out to win games in the exhibition season, by going 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS in his four years at the helm of the Lions. Detroit is no stranger to the end zone under Schwartz in the preseason by scoring 25 points or more in six of the last seven contests.

Giants at Jaguars (-2 ½, 35) - 8:00 PM EST

New York begins its title defense in North Florida, although this preseason game means very little to Tom Coughlin's team. Super Bowl MVP Eli Manning will be on the field for a series or two before giving way to another former top pick in David Carr. Behind Carr is ex-LSU standout Ryan Perrilloux, who spent time on the Giants' roster last season on the practice squad. Jacksonville is competing with Cleveland for worst compilation at the quarterback position as Blaine Gabbert, Chad Henne, and Nathan Enderle all will take snaps. Maurice Jones-Drew will not suit up for the Jags, as the Pro Bowl running back is still in the midst of a holdout.

Jacksonville failed to cover in four preseason games in 2011, as Mike Mularkey has taken over as head coach. Mularkey cashed the 'under' in six of eight preseason contests as coach of the Bills from 2004-05, while the Jags are winless in their last three exhibition openers. The Giants have won only two of the last six road games in the preseason, as one of those victories came against the rival Jets in the opening game at Met Life Stadium in 2010.

Cardinals at Chiefs (-2 ½, 34 ½) - 8:00 PM EST

Kansas City has been a great preseason 'fade' over the last few seasons, covering just once in the last 20 games since 2007. In this stretch, the Chiefs are 3-17 SU, which went though both Herm Edwards and Todd Haley as the head coach. Romeo Crennel replaced Haley for the final three games of last season, while beating the Packers and Broncos as underdogs. The Chiefs begin the preseason against the Cardinals, who have plenty of questions at the quarterback position.

John Skelton and Kevin Kolb will battle it out for top signal-caller in Arizona, as Skelton will play with the first team against Kansas City. Past Kolb, Ryan Lindley will see some second half action as the Cardinals own a 7-13 SU and 8-11 ATS under Ken Whisenhunt in the preseason. The Chiefs trot out Matt Cassel as their starting quarterback, while Brady Quinn will make a push as the second-stringer.

Vikings at 49ers (-3, 34 ½) - 9:00 PM EST

San Francisco sat a few plays away from making the Super Bowl in January, but came up short in overtime against New York. The Niners begin their second campaign under Jim Harbaugh, who went 3-1 to the 'under' in four preseason contests last season. San Francisco is relying on former top pick Alex Smith at quarterback, followed by Colin Kaepernick and Josh Johnson, who are expected to get a majority of the snaps.

The Vikings turned into a disaster last season by winning only three games, while losing star running back Adrian Peterson to a torn ACL in a Week 16 win at Washington. Peterson will not play at San Francisco, but is aiming to return later in the preseason. Christian Ponder leads a Minnesota trio of quarterbacks who haven't been consistent starts in the league, as Joe Webb and Sage Rosenfels also will see time at Candlestick Park. The Vikings have covered five of eight preseason games under Leslie Frazier, while allowing 14 points or less in three exhibition contests last season.

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Slam the Rams' 'under'

August 10, 2012

As I mentioned last week while touting an ‘over’ play on the Bears, my second-favorite NFL season win total is ‘under’ six for the Rams.

St. Louis is coming off of a dreadful 10-38 stretch during Steve Spagnuolo’s tenure. Going back even further, there was a 2-10 run under interim coach Jim Haslett that was preceded by an 11-25 record under Scott Linehan. By my math, this six-year span of nothing but scrub squads has combined for a pathetic 23-73 record.

Ouch!

That’s painful just to think about.

The good news is that former Titans head coach Jeff Fisher has been hired to right the ship. Fisher’s not Vince Lombardi, but he’s a major upgrade from Spagnuolo and Linehan.

We’ll stick with the few positives for now and I believe that starts with the additions at cornerback. Cortland Finnegan, signed in free agency, is a solid veteran with 14 career interceptions. The former Titan has been to the Pro-Bowl before and is familiar with Fisher’s system.

The Rams got great value in the second round when they drafted Janoris Jenkins, who became the first Florida Gator to start at CB from day one as a true freshman since the late/great Jarvis Williams did so in the 1980s. Jenkins was an integral part of UF’s national-championship team in 2008.

Jenkins is a mid-first-round talent, but his dismissal from Florida raised red flags. He was arrested twice for possession of misdemeanor amounts of weed in Gainesville during the off-season after Urban Meyer resigned and Will Muschamp became head coach.

With excellent talent at the cover-corner spots, you would think life will become easier for one of the league’s best pass rushers who is still getting better. I’m talking about Chris Long, who had 13 sacks last season.

There’s also optimism at two other d-line spots. Robert Quinn had five sacks as a rookie after missing all of 2010 while suspended at North Carolina. The Rams spent their first-round pick on LSU defensive tackle Michael Brockers, who is expected to start immediately.

Fisher will also like his middle linebacker, James Laurinaitis, who had a team-high 142 tackles, nine tackles for losses, three sacks, seven passes broken up and a pair of interceptions last year.

The previous few paragraphs will just about do it for half-glass-full opinions.

The organization believes it has its franchise quarterback in third-year signal caller Sam Bradford. I won’t say anything to derail that notion, but there are concerns.

For starters, regardless of how good a player is in any sport, at some point you have to enjoy success to keep your confidence. Going back to Bradford’s senior year at Oklahoma when he got hurt in the opener against BYU and then went out again early in a game against Texas, Bradford’s last three seasons have been rough.

He barely touched the field in a frustrating 2009 in Norman. Then as a rookie in 2010, Bradford had an 18/15 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In 2011, Bradford struggled with injuries to his ankle and elbow, often playing at far less than 100-percent health-wise. He completed only 53.5 percent of his throws with a 6/6 TD-INT ratio.

I don’t point out those numbers to bash Bradford. I think he’s been playing behind a garbage offensive line with mediocre receivers. I believe he’s an extremely accurate passer when he gets time and has targets that are open, but how often will that be the case in 2012?

The Rams did take a WR in the second round, but I have to plead ignorance on this one. I have no clue if Brian Quick from out of Appalachian St. was worthy of being the 33rd selection in the NFL Draft or not. Only time will tell.

I know Danny Amendola is a quality NFL wideout, but is he talented enough to be your No. 1 target? Will he be the same after suffering that grotesque elbow injury last year?

Stephen Jackson has been a stud RB for a long time, but how much does he have left in the tank? There are a lot of miles on those legs. And, once again, he’ll be operating behind a terrible offensive line.

When suggesting an ‘under’ on a season win total, I like to look at the schedule and figure a best-case scenario. In this instance, I think the Rams’ ceiling is 6-10 IF everything falls right.

That would entail Bradford staying healthy for 16 games, Quick emerging as an outstanding rookie WR, Amendola playing extremely well, rookie RB Isiah Pead developing as a nice compliment to Jackson and major improvement from the offensive line.

Then on the other side of the ball, you need a career year from Long. You need Jenkins and Brockers producing at a high level as rookies, while Quinn enjoys a breakout campaign in his second season.

Are all those things going to materialize? Of course not!

There are three road games that are guaranteed losses – at Detroit, at Chicago and at San Francisco. There are two more road games that are unlikely victories and also fall into difficult spots because of the weather conditions – at Miami in mid-October (when it feels like mid-August everywhere else) and at Buffalo on Dec. 9 when snow and ice could be a factor for an indoor team like St. Louis.

The Rams will almost certainly be underdogs in their three other road games – at Arizona, at Tampa Bay and at Seattle. How many road wins will they get? Let’s be generous and give them one and it’ll come either at Arizona or at Tampa Bay.

St. Louis was a double-digit home underdog twice last year and I see two more similar situations this season when Green Bay and New England come to the Edward Jones Dome in back-to-back weeks. Although we should note that the Rams drilled the Saints as 13-point home ‘dogs last year, we’ll confidently mark them with L’s for the visits from the Packers and Patriots.

Another healthy home ‘dog spot will be on Dec. 2 when the 49ers come to town.

We’re left with five home games: vs. Washington, vs. Seattle, vs. Arizona, vs. the Jets and vs. Minnesota. The Rams will certainly have a decent shot in four of those contests, but I think the Jets win at St. Louis.

I’ll give them three wins at home against the Seahawks (being generous here – again), Cardinals and Vikings. (I think RG3 and the ‘Skins beat the Rams.)

So there you have it. The Rams will go 4-12 and the ‘under’ will be a winner.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday Doubleheader

August 11, 2012

The Saturday NFL card showcases only a pair of games, but involving interconference matchups. Underdogs managed a 4-1-1 ATS in the Thursday action, but the favorites came through with a 4-2 ATS mark in last night's games. Both the Buccaneers and Browns managed straight-up victories as three-point road underdogs, while cashing on the money line at +150. Tonight's action includes only one team that qualified for the playoffs last season, as the Texans take a trip to Carolina.

Texans at Panthers (-3, 35 ½) - 7:00 PM EST - NFL Network

Houston is fresh off its first playoff appearance in franchise history, as the Texans are the favorite to win the AFC South for a second consecutive season. The quarterback situation became interesting following Matt Schaub's foot injury in Week 10 at Tampa Bay last season. After one start by Matt Leinart, rookie T.J. Yates started the final seven games, including a pair of playoff contests. Schaub retains the starting job, while Yates is the primary backup heading into the season.

The Panthers are set with their quarterback scenario as last season's top pick Cam Newton threw for 4,051 yards in his rookie campaign. Carolina scored plenty of points down the stretch by hitting the 'over' in five of the final seven games, while compiling a 5-2 ATS record as a favorite. Newton will likely play several series against the Texans, followed by Jimmy Clausen and Derek Anderson. Both Clausen and Anderson have prior starting experience, including Anderson leading the Browns to a 10-6 campaign in 2007.

Both teams will be slowed down in the vertical game as Andre Johnson and Steve Smith are each dealing with injuries. Johnson suffered a groin injury in training camp, while missing nine games last season with a hamstring injury. The former University of Miami is listed as 'out' against Carolina, as his status moving forward will be week-to-week. Smith is 'questionable' after bruising his left knee in practice, as there is a chance he would see one series at most on Saturday.

The Texans are a solid 17-7 to the 'over' in Gary Kubiak's 24 career preseason contests, including three of four 'overs' last season. Houston has won three of its past four preseason openers, while beating the Jets, 20-16 as 3 ½-point favorites in 2011. Carolina finished at 1-3 SU/ATS in Ron Rivera's first season as head coach, as the lone victory came over the Giants as short home 'chalk' in a 20-10 triumph.

Titans at Seahawks (-3, 35 ½) - 10:00 PM EST - NFL Network

Tennessee makes the long trip to CenturyLink Field as Matt Hasselbeck comes back to Seattle for the first time since getting released by the Seahawks in 2011. Hasselbeck guided the Titans' to a respectable 9-7 record in the AFC, while Tennessee finished the season cashing the 'under' in eight of the last 10 games. The Titans aren't ready to turn things over to last season's top pick Jake Locker, as the former Washington standout will back up Hasselbeck in his return to Seattle.

The Seahawks made noise in the offseason with several signings, including the acquisition of former Packers' quarterback Matt Flynn. In spite of limiting playing time in Green Bay, Flynn impressed in the final regular season against Detroit by tossing six touchdowns and 480 yards. Seattle inked veteran wide receivers Terrell Owens and Braylon Edwards over the last few weeks, as the Seahawks had one receiver that racked up over 500 yards. Pete Carroll will split time at quarterback against the Titans with Flynn starting the first half and rookie Russell Wilson will play the second half.

Carroll is 15-9-1 ATS in his preseason career, including a 3-1 ATS mark in 2011. The Seahawks are 1-3 ATS since 2010 as a home favorite in exhibition play, while splitting a pair of games against the Vikings and Raiders last season. The Titans cashed in three of four preseason contests in 2011, including covers as a road underdog at St. Louis and New Orleans.

[StarDust Bum]

Panthers host Texans Saturday night

HOUSTON TEXANS

at CAROLINA PANTHERS


NFL Preseason Game
Kickoff: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Carolina -3, Total: 35½

Two more teams begin their preseason slate on Saturday night when the Panthers host the Super Bowl-hopeful Texans.

Houston is coming off its first-ever playoff season, and is poised to go deeper in the postseason, especially if QB Matt Schaub can stay healthy. Schaub missed the final eight games of 2011 with a Lisfranc injury to his right foot, but he’ll be back under center to start Saturday’s game, hopeful to improve on his team’s 4-2 record in the past six preseason contests. On the flip side, Carolina has dropped 11 of its past 13 preseason games, and doesn’t expect to play star QB Cam Newton for more than a couple of series. However Newton’s backups, Derek Anderson and Jimmy Clausen, aren’t any better than the Texans duo of T.J. Yates and John Beck. Most likely, this matchup will likely come down to defense. The Texans certainly have the edge here, finishing second in yardage defense (286 YPG) and fourth in scoring defense (17.4 PPG) last year. The Panthers allowed 378 YPG (5th-most in NFL) and 26.8 PPG (6th-most in league) in 2011. The choice here is HOUSTON to win.

This FoxSheets trend also backs the Texans:

CAROLINA is 14-31 ATS (31.1%, -20.1 Units) in non-conference preseason games since 1993. The average score was CAROLINA 15.1, OPPONENT 20.5 - (Rating = 1*).

These clubs have never faced each other in the preseason, but they did play last December in Houston, a surprising 28-13 upset win for the Panthers. The Texans had won the previous two regular-season meetings with Carolina.

Schaub will likely play about three series on Saturday before allowing Yates to take the game into the fourth quarter. Beck, who is competing with rookie Case Keenum for the No. 3 QB job, will finish this game, with the plan being for Keenum to close out the next preseason game. Yates did an admirable job filling in Schaub last year. He posted an 80.7 rating, completing 61 percent of his passes for 949 yards, 3 TD and 3 INT, while leading the team to its first-ever playoff win. Beck played four regular-season games for the Redskins last year (all losses), going 80-for-132 (61%) for 858 yards, 2 TD and 4 INT. With star WR Andre Johnson nursing a strained groin, that creates more opportunities for promising youngsters Keshawn Martin and Lester Jean. Houston will likely be without two of its better defensive players in DE J.J. Watt (dislocated elbow) and ILB Brian Cushing (illness).

Once Newton exits the game, Anderson and Clausen both have plenty of incentive as the two competitors for the backup QB job in Carolina. Anderson has logged 51 career NFL games, but hasn’t been effective since 2007 when he threw 29 touchdown passes for Cleveland. Since that time, he has just 19 TD and 28 INT in 30 games. Clausen’s pro career got off to a rocky start in his rookie year, as he posted a dreadful 58.4 QB rating due to a pathetic 5.2 yards per attempt, 3 TD and 9 INT. He did not throw a pass last season. The Panthers will also be missing their top wideout, as Steve Smith will sit out with a bruised left knee. The defensive player to watch for Carolina is rookie ILB Luke Kuechly, who was a tackling machine at Boston College. He’ll have more responsibilities early in the preseason, as fellow linebackers Jon Beason (hamstring) and Thomas Davis (calf) work their way back from injuries.

[StarDust Bum]

Titans-Seahawks square off Saturday


TENNESSEE TITANS

at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS


NFL Preseason Game
Kickoff: Saturday, 10:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Seattle -3, Total: 35½

Two teams with fierce quarterbacking battles meet on Saturday night when the Seahawks host the Titans.

Both teams will showcase their top quarterbacks for their preseason opener. Tennessee’s starting job is between veteran Matt Hasselbeck and second-year pro Jake Locker, while Seattle newcomer Matt Flynn is being pushed by both rookie Russell Wilson and returnee Tarvaris Jackson. Not only is the Titans duo more accomplished, but it also has more weapons to choose from than the thinned-out Seahawks receiving corps. Seattle will be missing Sidney Rice (shoulder), newly-signed Terrell Owens (inactive) and last year’s top receiver Doug Baldwin (sore hamstring). The Titans are also historically a tremendous preseason team, winning 14 of their past 20 contests, while Seattle has dropped five of eight contests over the past two preseasons. The pick here is TENNESSEE to win.

This strong FoxSheets trend also sides with the Titans:

TENNESSEE is 17-6 ATS (73.9%, +10.4 Units) as a road underdog in the preseason since 1993. The average score was TENNESSEE 20.3, OPPONENT 20.4 - (Rating = 1*).

These teams have met twice in the preseason, way back in 1993 (a 20-10 Seattle road win) and two years ago, when the Seahawks prevailed 20-18.

Hasselbeck, who is Seattle’s all-time passing leader, will get the start and likely play about three series. Then will come Locker, the Titans first-round draft choice in 2011. Locker, who finished with 8.2 passing yards per attempt, 4 TD and 0 INT as a rookie, will probably close out the first half. After that, second-year pro Rusty Smith will take over. Although Smith didn’t see any action in the regular season in 2011, he did play a couple of games in 2010 as a rookie, including one start. Smith finished 20-of-40 for 200 yards, 0 TD and 4 INT. Tarleton State rookie Nick Stephens will close out the game. He averaged 252 passing yards per game with 29 TD and 20 INT in 19 games for Tarleton after transferring from the University of Tennessee. Most of the Titans offense is intact, with the exception of WR Kenny Britt who continues to rehab from last year’s torn ACL. The team will look to rookie WR Kendall Wright to fill Britt’s void.

After Flynn, who was the backup for Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay last year, departs rather quickly, Wilson will be the second quarterback under center, followed by Jackson. Wilson, who played his collegiate ball at NC State for three years before transferring to Wisconsin last year, holds the FBS record with 379 consecutive pass attempts without an interception. His accuracy is a big reason he’s moved up to No. 2 on the depth chart. Jackson will likely start the second half. He started 14 of Seattle’s 16 games last year, finishing 271-for-450 (60%) for 3,091 yards, 14 TD and 13 INT. Josh Portis, a second-year pro who played his college ball in California University in Pennsylvania, will finish the game. Another youngster who will play a big role in this game is rookie RB Robert Turbin, who could see extended time in Seattle’s backfield if starter Marshawn Lynch is forced to serve a suspension for his summer DUI arrest.

[StarDust Bum]

What bettors need to know: Saturday's NFL preseason games

Football bettors can choose from two games on the NFL preseason schedule Saturday.

Here’s a quick look at each of the matchups and their odds and trends

Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers (-3, 35.5)

The Houston defense had a huge turnaround from the 2010 season going from one of the worst units in the league to ranking second in total defense last season.

Inside linebacker Brian Cushing has spent two nights in the hospital with a viral infection this week, but coach Gary Kubiak won’t rule him out of Saturday’s preseason opener. Quarterback Matt Schaub will play 12 to 15 snaps at Carolina. T.J. Yates and John Beck will take over from there and finish the game, according to Kubiak.

It has been a turbulent training camp for the Carolina Panthers.

Offensive tackle Jeff Otah’s contract with the Panthers was terminated after he was dealt to the New York Jets, failed his physical and was sent back to Carolina, where he once again failed another physical.

Cornerback Captain Munnerlyn has been feuding with wide receiver Steve Smith and Jonathan Stewart after they took issue with his physical style of play in camp. Munnerlyn’s competition at corner, Brandon Hogan (knee)and Josh Norman (hamstring), are already missing time due to injury.

The pressure will once again fall on Cam Newton and the rushing attack of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart this season.

Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks (-3, 33.5)

Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck will be the starter when the Titans open the preseason against the Seahawks, coach Mike Munchak informed the media Thursday.

Hasselbeck will play 10-15 snaps and then Jake Locker will take over until halftime. Rusty Smith and Nick Stephens are expected to share snaps in the second half.

NFL Network reporter Ian Rapoport reporter earlier this week that Chris Johnson looked like the "Chris Johnson of old," referring to his effort in 2009 where he rushed for over 2,000 yards.

The Seahawks signed wide receiver Terrell Owens on Monday to a one-year deal reportedly worth $1 million.

“His workout and work ethic was extraordinary,” head coach Pete Carroll said via Twitter earlier this week. “He has a chance to start over here, and that’s pretty cool.”

Seattle's three-way quarterback competition begins on Saturday. Matt Flynn's been promised the first half and Russell Wilson the second.

[Udog]

NFL

Saturday, August 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Houston - 7:00 PM ET Houston +2.5 500

Carolina - Over 35.5 500

Tennessee - 10:00 PM ET Seattle -3 500

Seattle - Under 34 500

[StarDust Bum]

Luck makes Colts debut Sunday vs. Rams

ST. LOUIS RAMS

at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS


NFL Preseason Game
Kickoff: Sunday, 1:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Indianapolis -1½, Total: 34

The Andrew Luck era begins in Indianapolis when the Colts kick off their preseason Sunday night against the Rams.

Each of these franchises is in rebuilding mode, coming off 2-14 seasons. However, each club also has a No. 1 overall pick at quarterback, in Luck and Sam Bradford entering his third season for St. Louis. The Colts plan on testing their star rookie early and playing him for nearly the entire first half. This should give Indy a huge advantage, especially on its home turf. The Rams have been a tremendous preseason team recently with seven straight victories, including a 33-10 blowout of the Colts, but they have too many holes on both sides of the ball under new head coach Jeff Fisher. The pick here is INDIANAPOLIS to win at home.

Luck had a brilliant career at Stanford, completing 67 percent of his passes for 9,430 yards, 82 TD and just 22 INT. Luck’s backup is 28-year-old Drew Stanton who spent his entire NFL career with the Lions. Stanton did not play at all in 2011, but was decent in 2010, posting a 78.4 QB rating. He was 69-for-119 (58%) for 780 yards, with 4 TD and 3 INT. That was a huge improvement from his dreadful 2009 campaign when he was 26-of-51 for 259 yards, 0 TD and 6 INT, which equals a 26.1 rating. Third-string QB, Northern Illinois rookie Chandler Harnish, will direct the fourth quarter. Harnish capped off a stellar career at NIU last year by throwing for 3,216 yards and 28 TD, while adding 1,379 yards on the ground with 11 touchdowns. Other new faces that should see significant time for Indianapolis on Sunday are free-agent signings WR Donnie Avery, RB Mewelde Moore and RB Deji Karim, as well as rookie tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. This game will also be the first look at the Colts’ new 3-4 defense under new head coach Chuck Pagano. Both Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are making the switch from defensive end to outside linebacker in this defense.

Bradford has struggled in his first two NFL seasons, and has still not fully recovered from a high ankle sprain suffered last October. He will start on Sunday, but it would be surprising to see him last more than two series, especially considering he took 36 sacks in just 10 games in 2011. Bradford has some experienced backups in A.J. Feeley and Kellen Clemens, who have logged 11 and seven NFL seasons, respectively. Feeley played five games (three starts) last season, completing 53-of-97 passes (55%) for 548 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT. Clemens also started three games for St. Louis last season, connecting on 48-of-91 passes (53%) for 546 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. Tom Brandstater (0-for-2 passing in NFL career) is fourth on the QB depth chart and should see time in the fourth quarter. The good thing for these quarterbacks is that all the wide receivers are battling for a starting position, and all have plenty of incentive to impress their coaches. Rookies Brian Quick and Chris Givens are pushing returning WRs Brandon Gibson, Danny Amendola, Greg Salas and Danario Alexander, as well as newcomer Steve Smith. Fisher will likely have seven new starters on defense this season including talented rookies DL Michael Brockers and CB Janoris Jenkins.

[StarDust Bum]

Slam the Rams' 'under'

August 10, 2012

As I mentioned last week while touting an ‘over’ play on the Bears, my second-favorite NFL season win total is ‘under’ six for the Rams.

St. Louis is coming off of a dreadful 10-38 stretch during Steve Spagnuolo’s tenure. Going back even further, there was a 2-10 run under interim coach Jim Haslett that was preceded by an 11-25 record under Scott Linehan. By my math, this six-year span of nothing but scrub squads has combined for a pathetic 23-73 record.

Ouch!

That’s painful just to think about.

The good news is that former Titans head coach Jeff Fisher has been hired to right the ship. Fisher’s not Vince Lombardi, but he’s a major upgrade from Spagnuolo and Linehan.

We’ll stick with the few positives for now and I believe that starts with the additions at cornerback. Cortland Finnegan, signed in free agency, is a solid veteran with 14 career interceptions. The former Titan has been to the Pro-Bowl before and is familiar with Fisher’s system.

The Rams got great value in the second round when they drafted Janoris Jenkins, who became the first Florida Gator to start at CB from day one as a true freshman since the late/great Jarvis Williams did so in the 1980s. Jenkins was an integral part of UF’s national-championship team in 2008.

Jenkins is a mid-first-round talent, but his dismissal from Florida raised red flags. He was arrested twice for possession of misdemeanor amounts of weed in Gainesville during the off-season after Urban Meyer resigned and Will Muschamp became head coach.

With excellent talent at the cover-corner spots, you would think life will become easier for one of the league’s best pass rushers who is still getting better. I’m talking about Chris Long, who had 13 sacks last season.

There’s also optimism at two other d-line spots. Robert Quinn had five sacks as a rookie after missing all of 2010 while suspended at North Carolina. The Rams spent their first-round pick on LSU defensive tackle Michael Brockers, who is expected to start immediately.

Fisher will also like his middle linebacker, James Laurinaitis, who had a team-high 142 tackles, nine tackles for losses, three sacks, seven passes broken up and a pair of interceptions last year.

The previous few paragraphs will just about do it for half-glass-full opinions.

The organization believes it has its franchise quarterback in third-year signal caller Sam Bradford. I won’t say anything to derail that notion, but there are concerns.

For starters, regardless of how good a player is in any sport, at some point you have to enjoy success to keep your confidence. Going back to Bradford’s senior year at Oklahoma when he got hurt in the opener against BYU and then went out again early in a game against Texas, Bradford’s last three seasons have been rough.

He barely touched the field in a frustrating 2009 in Norman. Then as a rookie in 2010, Bradford had an 18/15 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In 2011, Bradford struggled with injuries to his ankle and elbow, often playing at far less than 100-percent health-wise. He completed only 53.5 percent of his throws with a 6/6 TD-INT ratio.

I don’t point out those numbers to bash Bradford. I think he’s been playing behind a garbage offensive line with mediocre receivers. I believe he’s an extremely accurate passer when he gets time and has targets that are open, but how often will that be the case in 2012?

The Rams did take a WR in the second round, but I have to plead ignorance on this one. I have no clue if Brian Quick from out of Appalachian St. was worthy of being the 33rd selection in the NFL Draft or not. Only time will tell.

I know Danny Amendola is a quality NFL wideout, but is he talented enough to be your No. 1 target? Will he be the same after suffering that grotesque elbow injury last year?

Stephen Jackson has been a stud RB for a long time, but how much does he have left in the tank? There are a lot of miles on those legs. And, once again, he’ll be operating behind a terrible offensive line.

When suggesting an ‘under’ on a season win total, I like to look at the schedule and figure a best-case scenario. In this instance, I think the Rams’ ceiling is 6-10 IF everything falls right.

That would entail Bradford staying healthy for 16 games, Quick emerging as an outstanding rookie WR, Amendola playing extremely well, rookie RB Isiah Pead developing as a nice compliment to Jackson and major improvement from the offensive line.

Then on the other side of the ball, you need a career year from Long. You need Jenkins and Brockers producing at a high level as rookies, while Quinn enjoys a breakout campaign in his second season.

Are all those things going to materialize? Of course not!

There are three road games that are guaranteed losses – at Detroit, at Chicago and at San Francisco. There are two more road games that are unlikely victories and also fall into difficult spots because of the weather conditions – at Miami in mid-October (when it feels like mid-August everywhere else) and at Buffalo on Dec. 9 when snow and ice could be a factor for an indoor team like St. Louis.

The Rams will almost certainly be underdogs in their three other road games – at Arizona, at Tampa Bay and at Seattle. How many road wins will they get? Let’s be generous and give them one and it’ll come either at Arizona or at Tampa Bay.

St. Louis was a double-digit home underdog twice last year and I see two more similar situations this season when Green Bay and New England come to the Edward Jones Dome in back-to-back weeks. Although we should note that the Rams drilled the Saints as 13-point home ‘dogs last year, we’ll confidently mark them with L’s for the visits from the Packers and Patriots.

Another healthy home ‘dog spot will be on Dec. 2 when the 49ers come to town.

We’re left with five home games: vs. Washington, vs. Seattle, vs. Arizona, vs. the Jets and vs. Minnesota. The Rams will certainly have a decent shot in four of those contests, but I think the Jets win at St. Louis.

I’ll give them three wins at home against the Seahawks (being generous here – again), Cardinals and Vikings. (I think RG3 and the ‘Skins beat the Rams.)

So there you have it. The Rams will go 4-12 and the ‘under’ will be a winner.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, August 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

St. Louis - 1:30 PM ET Indianapolis +0 500

Indianapolis - Over 34 500

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What bettors need to know: Cowboys at Raiders

Dallas Cowboys at Oakland Raiders (-1, 34.5)

Reggie McKenzie’s first move was hiring Dennis Allen as the Raiders new head coach. Allen, who was the defensive coordinator with Denver last year, inherits a deep but undisciplined front line, one that surrendered a whopping 5.1 yards per rush last season for new defensive coordinator Jason Tarver. Oakland is set on improving and tinkering with its rush defense this preseason.

With Taiwan Jones and Mike Goodson out with injuries, halfback Lonyae Miller has seen an increase in snaps this training camp. Expect Miller to take the majority of the carries on Monday night.

First-string quarterback Carson Palmer and No. 1 running back Darren McFadden are likely to see limited time in the preseason opener. New backup quarterback Matt Leinart should see a significant amount of snaps.

The Cowboys are plagued with injuries.

David Arkin had never snapped the ball for the Dallas Cowboys before getting to training camp two weeks ago but could be snapping for Tony Romo on Monday.

Starting center Phil Costa missed practice Saturday because of a lower back injury and is doubtful against the Raiders. Wide receiver Dez Bryant left practice early Saturday because of hamstring tightness and will be a game-time decision.

Rookie cornerback Morris Claiborne returned to practice Saturday after missing a week with a sprained left knee. He isn't expected to play against the Raiders.

Starters like Romo are only likely to play one series or perhaps up to one quarter.




NFL Preseason Week 1 Dunkel

MONDAY, AUGUST 13

Game 281-282: Dallas at Oakland (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 119.351; Oakland 123.163
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 4; 38
Vegas Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 35
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-1 1/2); Over




NFL Preseason Betting Trends for Monday, August 13, 2012

Dallas at Oakland, 8:00 ET ESPN
Dallas: 10-19 ATS vs. AFC West opponents
Oakland: 4-0 Over in home games

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Cowboys vs. Raiders

August 13, 2012

Sure, it's preseason, but all of this matters.

The Olympics and the NBA's top Summer saga shared headlines with the NFL's return, occasionally accomplishing the impossible in overshadowing America's pastime in August. With both events complete, look for everyone to flock to this Monday night game between two of the country's most polarizing teams, the Cowboys and Raiders.

For Oakland, 2012 offers an opportunity to start fresh, not only with a new regime, but also with rental quarterback Carson Palmer getting an opportunity to go through a training camp. He's out to become consistent by going the conventional route in becoming an organization's trusted signal caller, so from that standpoint, developing continuity after last season's flashes of brilliance and ineptitude is key.

So far, that's been difficult.

Issues on the offensive line and with top receiver Denarius Moore have forced Palmer to try and find a rhythm with lesser options under circumstances that intrude on preparation. Darius Heyward-Bey, Jacoby Ford and rookies Juron Criner and Rod Streater will have to benefit, but in this first live run, won't get to see much of Palmer. Look for Oakland to be cautious and utilize this opportunity to take long looks at Matt Leinart and Terrelle Pryor.

Pryor, the Ohio State standout who withdrew from school after allegations of improper benefits surfaced, was a supplemental pick last June and is also looking forward to a conventional exhibition season. He's expected to see the majority of second-half snaps prior to giving way to the latest Ivy League quarterback hoping to express, Brown's Kyle Newhall-Caballero.

Princeton alum Jason Garrett used to live for the preseason in his playing days since it often led to extended action, so look for him to turn to his backups quickly, and not for sentimental reasons. The head coach is certain to be cautious with Tony Romo, expected to get a single series due to Dallas' offensive line issues. Center Phil Costa will miss the game to rest an ailing back, while likely starters Derrick Dockery and Mackenzy Bernadeau have been limited in practices leading up to this one. Dez Bryant has a hamstring issue that will likely earn him the night off. Miles Austin has also had hammy issues in August, so the Cowboys have gotten little work done with what's expected to be the first-string passing game.

If you're rooting for Dallas, the key will be how well Kyle Orton collaborates with young receivers Dwayne Harris, Cole Beasley, Kevin Ogletree and Andre Holmes. Stephen McGee and Rudy Carpenter are battling for the No. 3 job and will get their crack come second half, so if you're counting on the Cowboys to notch a road win, you're banking on backups to really perform in a hostile atmosphere.

Help from the running game will have to come from those vying to make the team behind DeMarco Murray and Felix Jones, who are only expected to do limited work. Ed Wesley and Javarris Williams will take the snaps they would've split with Lance Dunbar and Philip Tanner come second second half.

The Raiders will field similar inexperience since Darren McFadden's primary backups, Taiwan Jones (hamstring) and Mike Goodson (neck) will both miss the contest. Lonyae Miller, who started on Dallas' practice squad and has done the same with Oakland, will be the primary back for the home team.

Jon Gruden, calling the game for ESPN, will be making his first trip back to the Oakland Coliseum (now O.co) since cutting ties with the organization. Considering it's also the first Raiders preseason game since Al Davis passed away last October, count on hearing a few stories about the team's revolutionary former owner.

Dennis Allen, the first defense-oriented coach to take the helm in Oakland since John Madden, will have many things scripted for his first dry run. Garrett went 2-2 in his first preseason in 2011, with the Cowboys going 1-3 against the spread.

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Best NFL preseason Week 2 over/under bets

It takes a while for NFL offenses and defenses to gain traction. That’s why they have four weeks of preseason football.

Starters made a brief appearance in Week 1 and will get more run in the second set on the exhibition schedule. Here’s a look at the top over and the top under bets in Week 2 of the preseason, going back over the past 16 years.

Records from Week 2 of the preseason since 1995.

Best Week 2 preseason over bets

Green Bay Packers (12-4 SU, 12-4 over/under)

Offense is the name of the game for the Packers in Week 2 of the preseason. Not only are the Cheeseheads the best over play since 1995, but they’re also the best ATS bet with an identical 12-4 ATS mark in that span. Green Bay is 4-0 over/under in Week 2 since Aaron Rodgers was named the No. 1 QB, however, much of that record has to do with the Packers’ porous defense. The total for Thursday’s game with Cleveland is set at 39 points.

Oakland Raiders (5-10 SU, 10-5 over/under)

Anyone who was lulled to sleep by the Raiders’ 3-0 loss to the Cowboys in Week 1 Monday is LMFAOing right now. Oakland, however, headed into that game with a 6-10 over/under count in Week 1 of the preseason since 1995, so there might be some weight in this trend. You can be sure the offense got the gears following the exhibition opener and will be out to impress versus Arizona Friday.

Houston Texans (5-5 SU, 8-2 over/under)

The Texans have only been around since 2002 but are an instant money maker for over bettors in Week 2 of the preseason. Houston is hitting the over at 80 percent in that span, including six straight Week 2 overs heading into Saturday’s showdown with San Francisco (+3, 36.5). The Texans ramped up their defense versus Carolina in Week 1, collecting eight sacks, but still played over the 35.5-point total.


Best Week 2 preseason under bets

Miami Dolphins (10-6 SU, 5-11 over/under)

The Dolphins ATS and the under has been a profitable parlay in Week 2 of the preseason recently. Miami is 10-5-1 ATS in Week 2 of the exhibition slate since 1995 and has played below the number in nearly 69 percent of those games. The Fins are down a QB after David Garrard injured his knee, leaving playcalling duties to Matt Moore and rookie Ryan Tannehill for Friday’s game against Carolina, which has a 37-point total. Miami is also the most consistent under bet throughout the preseason with a 23-40-1 over/under count in exhibition play since 1995.

Kansas City Chiefs (5-11 SU, 6-10 over/under)

The Chiefs haven’t had much success against the spread in Week 2 of the preseason, with a dreadful 2-14 ATS count since 1995. Kansas City was making money for fans of the under during that stretch but aren’t a guaranteed low score after topping the Week 2 total the past two preseasons and playing over the number in their Week 1 win against Arizona.

Atlanta Falcons (8-8 SU, 6-9-1 over/under)

The Falcons are among nine teams that have played under the total in nine of their past 16 Week 2 preseason contests. Atlanta does have that one push which is enough to get the nod as one of the best under plays. It has gone 2-3 SU and 1-4 over/under since 2007 and has had a hard time getting on the scoreboard during that span. The Falcons host Cincinnati with a total of 37.5 points Thursday.

[StarDust Bum]

NFLX
Dunkel

Week 2

Cincinnati at Atlanta
The Falcons look to bounce back from a 31-17 loss last week against Baltimore as they host Cincinnati on Thursday. Atlanta is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, AUGUST 16

Game 401-402: Cincinnati at Atlanta (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 114.628; Atlanta 120.505
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 6; 35
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 4; 38
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4); Under

Game 403-404: Cleveland at Green Bay (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 121.403; Green Bay 121.399
Dunkel Line: Even; 44
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3); Over


FRIDAY, AUGUST 17

Game 405-406: Tennessee at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 125.191; Tampa Bay 124.123
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 1; 34
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+3); Under

Game 407-408: Miami at Carolina (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 117.302; Carolina 121.755
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 4 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Carolina by 4; 37
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-4); Over

Game 409-410: Detroit at Baltimore (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 122.432; Baltimore 126.337
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 4; 41
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3; 39
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-3); Over

Game 411-412: Buffalo at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 120.303; Minnesota 120.412
Dunkel Line: Even; 35
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+2 1/2); Under

Game 413-414: Jacksonville at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 122.409; New Orleans 132.877
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 10 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-6 1/2); Under

Game 415-416: Oakland at Arizona (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 120.749; Arizona 123.560
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 3; 38
Vegas Line: Arizona by 5; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+5); Over


SATURDAY, AUGUST 18

Game 417-418: NY Giants at NY Jets (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 119.947; NY Jets 1123.655
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 3 1/2; 33
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 1 1/2; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-1 1/2); Under

Game 419-420: Kansas City at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 117.318; St. Louis 117.200
Dunkel Line: Even; 40
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 1; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+1); Over

Game 421-422: Washington at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 121.980; Chicago 124.807
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 3; 33
Vegas Line: Chicago by 1; 37
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-1); Under

Game 423-424: San Francisco at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 123.489; Houston 125.557
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 41
Vegas Line: Houston by 3; 37
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3); Over

Game 425-426: Seattle at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 124.675; Denver 123.913
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 32
Vegas Line: Denver by 1; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+1); Under

Game 427-428: Dallas at San Diego (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 126.304; Dallas 122.122
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 4; 42
Vegas Line: San Diego by 3; 37
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-3); Over


SUNDAY, AUGUST 19

Game 429-430: Indianapolis at Pittsburgh (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 129.607; Indianapolis 120.144
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 9 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-3 1/2); Over


MONDAY, AUGUST 20

Game 431-432: Philadelphia at New England (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 124.333; New England 124.506
Dunkel Line: Even; 38
Vegas Line: New England by 3; 41
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3); Under