The Bum's Saturday's MLB Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Rays And Orioles Tangle At Tropicana Field

This is one of those games that is very hard to not fall immediately in love with one team from a baseball wagering perspective. It's a deep love, and one not easily shaken no matter how hard you try to ignore it.

This is also one of those games that's highly significant, to quote corporal Radar O'Reilly, US Army. The Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays are locked in a mortal struggle to make the American League playoffs as they continue their weekend set Saturday evening at St. Pete's Tropicana Field (7:10 p.m. ET).

Opening odds for Saturday's affair listed Tampa Bay at -125, and the 8-run total was shaded to the 'under.'

Friday's series opener was still in progress and found the two clubs deadlocked in second place of the AL East, 6.5-games behind the New York Yankees. The most glaring difference in their identical 55-50 records is the return at the betting windows where those backing the O's were up 14.5 units while following the Rays all season has left bettors 1.1 units in the red. Tampa is coming home after going 6-3 on a 9-game road that started in Baltimore and saw the Rays win that series along with sets in Anaheim and Oakland.

Tampa Bay was priced at -165 for the first game of the series behind Matt Moore; Baltimore was sending Tommy Hunter to the hill with an 8-run total.

The biggest reason to fall in love with one team on Saturday is the starting pitching matchup. Wei-Lin Chen has had two losing experiences in this, his rookie season, against Tampa Bay while Jeremy Hellickson has been outstanding facing the O's during his brief career with a 2.25 ERA over eight starts and a relief appearance.

It's a duel we saw about 10 days ago at Camden Yards where Hellickson and the Rays prevailed 3-1 as 125 underdogs. Both hurlers worked into the seventh with Chen allowing all three Tampa Bay runs and Hellickson charged with the Orioles' only plate crossing.

Chen's previous experience this year vs. the Rays came at The Trop on June 1 when he lasted two outs into the sixth and allowed all of Tampa Bay's runs in a five-zip shutout started by David Price. The Taiwanese lefty brings a 4.27 road ERA into Saturday's tilt, more than a run higher than his mark at home.

A late fielding miscue sabotaged Hellickson and the Rays in his first start of 2012 vs. Baltimore. All told this season, he's tossed 13 innings against the O's and surrendered two earned runs while allowing seven hits and a walk against 12 strikeouts.

Tampa Bay holds the slim 5-4 edge in matchups with Baltimore on this year's slate. The Rays took two of three at The Trop in early June, the 'under' also the winner in two of the three contests. Twelve of the last 16 played in Florida have failed to reach the scoreboard hurdle.

The Orioles recently lost designated hitter Jim Thome to the 15-day disabled list with a neck injury that is expected to keep him sidelined into mid-August. Bettors will want to keep an eye on the Don Best Pro Odds for updates regarding Tampa Bay 3B Evan Longoria who has been out since early may due to his left hamstring. Longoria was on a rehab assignment this week but reportedly was experiencing some soreness which could derail the club's plans to activate him at some point this weekend.

[StarDust Bum]

Buehrle & Marlins Battle Zimmermann & Nationals

Ozzie Guillen and Davey Johnson will have their managerial skills put to the test during a 4-game series this weekend in the nation's capital. Because of an earlier rainout, the Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals will have just three days to play the four games, and pitching staffs could be immediately stressed with a doubleheader to get things rolling on Friday.

Bettors are going to want to wait to see how the bullpens are worked on Friday before making a final decision for Saturday's third tilt in the set. The Marlins will give the ball to veteran left-hander Mark Buehrle for the 7:10 p.m. (ET) start when the Nationals counter with Jordan Zimmermann. Washington is a $1.60 favorite on the overnight lines with a 7½-run total.

Friday's twinbill has a marquee pitching matchup in the nightcap when Josh Johnson will take on Gio Gonzalez. Brad Hand opens the afternoon game (4:05 p.m. ET) for the Fish against John Lannan in a double-lefty collision. Washington was -165 in the opener with an 8½-run total, while the price on the Nats dropped to -140 in the second game which listed a 7-run total.

A couple of years ago, going into a weekend with Josh Johnson, Buehrle and Ricky Nolasco ready to take their rotation turns would've been given a big thumb's up. Shoot, one might imagine the Marlins having a damn fine chance of winning all three games. But as respected as those names are, Washington trumps Miami with a huge starting pitching advantage this weekend behind Lannan, Gonzalez, Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg who will take the ball in Sunday's Game 4.

Good news for Guillen and the Fish is having Josh Johnson in Friday's second game followed by Buehrle on Saturday. Both are capable of working seven innings or more into their starts, which would take some pressure off Miami's bullpen. The bad news is Guillen's relief corps is something of a mess right now. Steve Cishek has become the default closer after Heath Bell proved unreliable in the role following his big free agent contract to join the Marlins this past winter.

While Buehrle is capable of working seven innings or more, like he did in five of six assignments from June 12 to July 14, he hasn't made it past the fifth inning in any of his last three starts. All three went into the loss column for Miami, including two road outings in Chicago and Atlanta where the Cubs and Braves combined to score 10 runs in Buehrle's 9-1/3 innings.

He was money in his lone start vs. the Nats this season July 14 in Miami (7 IP, 1 ER) to cash as a small home 'dog. Saturday will be his first career appearance at Nationals Park.

Davey Johnson's bullpen is in good shape at the moment with Tyler Clippard having taken to the closer's role like a duck to water. Sean Burnett and Craig Stammen have been solid in middle-relief and setup, and Washington also recently saw former closer Drew Storen return to the bullpen after beginning the year on the disabled list due to elbow trouble.

Zimmermann has had an extra day of rest since his last start after experiencing some shoulder discomfort. The Nationals are a perfect 4-0 behind their right-hander since the all-star break, a string that started with a strong performance against the Marlins in Miami. Zimmermann tossed six shutout innings to earn the dubya, his first career win vs. the Fish.

Washington is playing without all-star shortstop Ian Desmond due to an oblique injury that forced him to the DL on July 22. He isn't expected to return until late-August.

The Nats did get some good news this week on the injury front when OF Jayson Werth came off the DL following three months off due to wrist surgery. It could be a few weeks, however, before Werth is in the starting lineup on a regular basis.

This weekend marks just the second series of 2012 between the clubs in Washington. The Nationals won the only two games played here in April when rain canceled a third clash. The Marlins have taken five of the seven since played in Miami, and the 'under' has prevailed six times overall in nine clashes.

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Saturday

August 4, 2012


SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Blue Jays are 0-11 since August 18, 2009 when Ricky Romero starts as a dog after throwing more than 100 pitches on the road last start for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Mariners are 0-9 OU since May 01, 2011 on the road when they won the last two games their starter started after playing in a night game for a net profit of $900 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Red Sox are 11-0 since May 02, 2011 when Clay Buchholz starts as a favorite after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $1100.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Astros are 2-21 (-2.9 rpg) since August 26, 2009 if it is not the first game of a series on the road after a game where they never led and had 6 or fewer hits.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Dodgers are 11-0 since May 13, 2011 when Clayton Kershaw starts at home after more strike outs than hits allowed on the road for a net profit of $1100.

-- The Red Sox are 0-12-1 OU since June 26, 2010 when Clay Buchholz starts after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $1200 when playing the under.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, August 4

Hot pitchers
-- Zimmerman is 5-0, 1.23 in his last seven starts.
-- Maholm was 5-0, 1.02 in his last six starts for the Cubs. Harrell is 1-1, 1.82 in his last four starts.
-- Wainwright is 1-0, 2.70 in his last couple starts.
-- Bumgarner is 1-1, 2.67 in his last four starts.
-- Volquez is 4-0, 2.76 in his last seven starts.
-- Dodgers won Kershaw's last three home starts (2-0, 2.14).

-- FHernandez is 3-0, 1.38 in his last five starts. Kuroda is 2-0, 1.23 in his lat three outings.
-- Griffin is 3-0, 2.51 in seven starts this season.
-- Feldman is 2-0, 0.60 in his last couple starts. Smith is 1-0, 2.77 in his last two outings.
-- Fister is 3-0, 1.80 in his last four starts.
-- Hellickson is 2-0, 1.96 in his last three starts. WChen is 2-1, 2.84 in his last four starts.
-- Buchholz is 1-0, 1.96 in his last three starts.
-- Floyd is 2-1, 2.21 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Buehrle is 0-2, 8.16 in his last three starts.
-- Halladay is 0-3, 7.20 in his last five starts. Saunders is 1-3, 4.22 in his last five starts.
-- McDonald is 1-2, 9.15 in his last four starts. Leake is 1-1, 7.80 in his last three outings.
-- Rogers allowed two runs in 5.2 IP (98 PT) in his first '12 start.
-- Francis is 1-2, 5.76 in his last five starts.
-- Hefner is 0-2, 5.60 in his last three starts.
-- Cubs are 0-9 when Volstad starts (0-7, 8.34).

-- Romero is 0-7, 10.06 in his last seven starts.
-- Jimenez is 0-3, 7.97 in his last four starts.
-- De Vries is 0-1, 6.14 in his last four starts.
-- ESantana is 1-2, 12.32 in his last five starts.

Hot Teams
-- Washington won ten of its last fourteen games.
-- Reds won 14 of their last 15 games. Pittsburgh won six of nine.
-- Arizona won six of its last seven games.
-- Braves won twelve of their last fifteen home games.
-- Cardinals won ten of their last fourteen games.
-- Mets won four of their last six games.

-- Tigers won 12 of their last 13 home games.
-- Mariners won seven of their last eight games.
-- Orioles won seven of their last ten road games. Tampa Bay won seven of its last ten games.
-- White Sox won eight of their last ten games.
-- Minnesota won six of its last eight games.
-- Texas won its last three games, scoring 31 runs.
-- Oakland won eight of its last ten home games.

Cold Teams
-- Marlins lost twelve of their last seventeen games.
-- Astros lost 23 of their last 24 road games.
-- Phillies lost five of their last seven games.
-- Milwaukee lost eight of its last nine road games.
-- Rockies lost ten of their last twelve games. Giants lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Padres lost five of their last seven games.
-- Cubs are 3-6 in their last nine road games. Dodgers are 4-6 in their last ten games overall.

-- Indians lost their last seven games, outscored 58-19.
-- Bronx lost four of its last six games.
-- Red Sox lost six of their last eight home games.
-- Angels are 4-10 in their last 14 road games.
-- Kansas City lost six of its last eight games.
-- Toronto lost eleven of its last seventeen games.

Totals
-- Under is 11-5-1 in Miami's last 17 games.
-- Five of last seven Philly home games went over total.
-- Five of last seven Cincinnati games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Atlanta home games stayed under.
-- Under is 9-4-1 in last fourteen St Louis home games.
-- Over is 14-5-1 in Giants' last twenty road games.
-- 13 of last 19 San Diego games went over the total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Dodger games.

-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Cleveland home games.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Seattle road games.
-- Seven of last eight Tampa Bay home games stayed under.
-- Nine of last thirteen Minnesota games went over the total.
-- Last five White Sox home games went over the total.
-- Over is 10-5-1 in Royals' last sixteen home games.
-- Under is 12-5 in Oakland's last seventeen home games.

Umpires
-- Mia-Wsh-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Muchlinski games.
-- Az-Phil-- Underdogs are 7-5 in last dozen Kulpa games.
-- Pitt-Cin-- Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Gorman games.
-- Hst-Atl-- Underdogs won six of last eight Reynolds games.
-- Mil-StL-- Underdogs are 8-6 in last fourteen TWelke games.
-- SF-Col-- Home teams won last four Tschida games.
-- NY-SD-- Favorites won six of last seven Hernandez games.
-- Chi-LA-- 15 of last 18 Miller games stayed under total.

-- Sea-NY-- Seven of last ten Vanover games went over total.
-- Tor-A's-- Underdogs won six of last ten Davis games.
-- Tex-KC-- Underdogs won five of last six McClelland games.
-- Clev-Det-- Over is 14-7-1 in last 22 Drake games.
-- Balt-TB-- Last three Marquez games went over the total.
-- Min-Bos-- All three Rackley games stayed under the total.
-- LA-Chi-- Five of last six Nauert games went over the total.

[StarDust Bum]

Early Games:

Saturday, August 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Seattle - 1:05 PM ET Seattle +134 500
NY Yankees - Under 8 500

Toronto - 4:05 PM ET Oakland -150 500
Oakland - Under 7.5 500

Texas - 6:10 PM ET Texas -159 500
Kansas City - Over 10 500