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**StarDust Bum** · 08-02-2012, 06:38 PM

Atlanta Braves Look To Stay Hot Against Miami Marlins

A couple of young hurlers who could go head-to-head many times in the future will meet for the second time in their young careers when the Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves wrap up their 4-game series Thursday.

Nate Eovaldi, recently acquired in the trade that sent Hanley Ramirez to the Los Angeles Dodgers, gets the call for Miami in the 7:10 p.m. (ET) start at Turner Field. Mike Minor is in line for the Braves who were $1.70 favorites to open. Thursday's total started at 8½ ('under -120).

Atlanta continues to chase after the Washington Nationals in the NL East, moving to within 2.5-games following Tuesday's 7-1 decision over the Marlins in Game 2 of the set. The victory was the 7th-straight for the Braves who were out for No. 8 Wednesday as hefty two-dollar favorites behind a reborn Ben Sheets. The contest was still undecided at press, and Miami was sending Wade LeBlanc to the mound.

The Marlins have already waved a white flag in Ozzie Guillen's first season after plenty of hype entering 2012 behind a spending spree last winter and the opening of a new park. Miami hoped that adding Carlos Lee from the Houston Astros in early July might perk up the offense, but won only six of the first 18 games after his arrival before pulling the plug.

The Fish have been involved in four trades since adding Lee, including a deal that sent Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante to the Detroit Tigers, but the really big swap was the transaction with LA. And the biggest asset in return from the Dodgers was Eovaldi, a former 11th-round pick out of Alvin, Texas.

Los Angeles called him up in late May when Ted Lilly went on the disabled list with shoulder issues, and Eovaldi made 10 starts with so-so stats and LA winning just twice. He won his first outing in a Marlins jersey last Saturday vs. the San Diego Padres, working into the sixth and allowing just a run in an eventual 4-2 victory as 140 home chalk.

Eovaldi pitched very well in Atlanta last September in his only experience against the Braves, tossing six 3-hit innings. He didn't factor into the decision, with the Dodgers needing 12 innings to pull off a 2-1 triumph. Minor mimicked Eovaldi in that matchup with six frames and just one run allowed, adding seven strikeouts to his linescore.

Minor looked as if he might be heading back to the minors in late-June before finding himself with four solid outings in July. The Braves managed to only split his four July efforts, but the southpaw pitched to a 1.98 ERA in a little more than 27 innings, and posted an excellent 26:4 K/BB ratio for the month.

One of the July starts was in Miami where Minor went seven and allowed two runs, getting no help from his lineup in a 2-1 Marlins win. He also beat them in Miami on June 7 (5 IP, 1 ER), but was bombed by the Fish in Atlanta a few weeks earlier when he failed to make it through the fifth and was charged with six runs.

The former Vanderbilt star continues to surrender long balls, serving up one each in his four July assignments. But the damage was far less with his free passes way down. Minor's success continuing is even more important now for the Braves who just placed 12-game winner Tommy Hanson on the DL with a strained back. Hanson started and won Game 1 of this series on Monday.

Miami recently lost Logan Morrison to the DL due to continuing trouble with his right knee he had tendon surgery on last winter. He could be facing a second surgery that would end his 2012 campaign.

Tuesday's win gave Atlanta an 8-2 edge in the season series, 3-1 at home. The totals were split 2-2 in the four played at Turner Field.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-02-2012, 06:42 PM

Diamond Trends - Thursday

August 2, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Athletics are 11-0 since May 2011 as a home favorite of more than -110 beyond April when they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs for a net profit of $1060.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Marlins are 0-9 OU since July 15, 2011 as a dog when they are off a win in which they scored in at most two separate innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Reds are 13-0 since July 31, 2011 when Johnny Cueto starts as a 140+ favorite vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $1300.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Mets are 12-1 OU (5.4 rpg) since May 14, 2005 when playing a day game after scoring 3 runs or less and winning as a dog.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Red Sox are 0-7 since May 30, 2011 when Jon Lester starts as a favorite after his team scored a total of seven or more runs in his last start for a net profit of $1025 when playing against.

-- The Blue Jays are 0-8 OU since April 08, 2011 when playing a night game on the road after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base for a net profit of $800 when playing the under.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-02-2012, 06:44 PM

Thursday Tips

August 1, 2012

The Thursday baseball card shoThwcases nine contests, including seven at night. We'll take a look at four of the bigger games, including the Athletics looking to stay red-hot at home against the struggling Blue Jays. The night begins in Washington with the first and last place teams hooking up inside the NL East.

Phillies at Nationals - 7:05 PM EST

Philadelphia dumped a pair of outfielders prior to Tuesday's trade deadline by sending Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence to the NL West. However, the Phillies rebounded from a three-game sweep at Atlanta to blank Washington in the series opener, 8-0 as $1.25 road underdogs. The Nationals still own the top spot in the NL East, but the Braves are lurking by sitting just 2 ½ games back heading into Thursday.

Cliff Lee dominated the Nationals in the opener, as another southpaw ace takes the mound on Thursday for the Phillies. Cole Hamels (11-5, 3.31 ERA) tries to rebound from a poor outing at Atlanta, just days after signing a six-year extension to remain in Philadelphia. Hamels allowed five runs (three earned) and walked six in five innings of a 6-1 loss. The Phillies aren't cashing when Hamels takes the mound of late, dropping five of his past six starts. In two starts against the Nationals this season, Hamels has beaten Washington each time, including a 9-3 victory as a short road favorite in early May.

The Nationals counter with Ross Detwiler (5-4, 3.24 ERA), who was knocked around in his last start at Milwaukee. The left-hander couldn't escape the fifth inning as the Brewers jumped out to a 4-0 lead, en route to a 6-0 victory. Detwiler received no help from his offense, which pounded out just four hits in Washington's first loss with him on the mound in his last five starts. The Nationals have cashed the 'over' in five straight home outings by Detwiler, as the Washington offense has scored at least five runs in each of those contests.

Twins at Red Sox - 7:10 PM EST

The last time these two teams hooked up at Target Field in April, Boston pulled out the broom and swept Minnesota in a three-game set. The Twins have come back to life following a slow start to the season, but Ron Gardenhire's club owns an 8-11 record since the All-Star break. The Red Sox have struggled to find consistency, even though Boston is coming off series victories over New York and Detroit this week.

One of the biggest mysteries coming out of Boston this season is the struggles of Jon Lester (5-8, 5.49 ERA). The southpaw has failed to put together a quality start in five of his last six outings, in spite of the Red Sox pulling out an 8-6 triumph in his last trip to the mound against the Yankees as $1.55 road underdogs. In this stretch, the 'over' has cashed five times, including four times at Fenway Park. Lester has by far been the biggest "money-burner" at home by losing 11.36 units in 12 starts at Fenway this season.

The Twins go for their fourth consecutive victory with Samuel Deduno (2-0, 3.13 ERA) on the mound, as the 29-year old from the Dominican Republic makes his third road start. Deduno is coming off back-to-back victories over the Royals and Indians, while allowing one earned run in each win. Minnesota is riding a healthy 'over' streak, by hitting in eight of the past 11 games, including five straight on the road.

Angels at Rangers - 8:05 PM EST

The race inside the AL West is tightening up as Los Angeles has captured four of the last six meetings with Texas. The lead has been trimmed to four games after the Halos dumped the Rangers in consecutive contests to start this crucial four-game set in Arlington. Ron Washington's team is just 4-6 the last nine games, but managed an 11-10 extra-innings triumph over the Angels on Wednesday.

The Rangers turn to newly acquired Ryan Dempster (5-5, 2.25 ERA), who was traded from the Cubs on Tuesday for the pennant push. Dempster has never pitched in Arlington in his career, while never facing the Angels in interleague play. The right-hander is coming off consecutive road losses at Pittsburgh and St. Louis as Dempster's name swirled around trade rumors to Atlanta or Los Angeles. In spite of the change in leagues, Dempster cashed the 'under' in his final five starts with the Cubs, while not allowing a run in five outings from June through mid-July.

A former Ranger gets the call on the Los Angeles side as C.J. Wilson (9-7. 2.88 ERA) is winless in his last six starts. The southpaw is fresh off quality starts in 12 of his last 14 appearances, including six scoreless against the Rangers in early June. Wilson didn't face Texas in the teams' last series in Southern California in late July, as the Rangers are 7-2 in his previous nine road outings.

Blue Jays at Athletics - 10:05 PM EST

Oakland is red-hot at the moment, winning 19 of 24 games in July to creep near the top of the AL Wild Card race. Toronto has gone backwards since winning six of eight games, as the Blue Jays dropped the all three contests at Seattle. The Jays are short-handed offensively with Jose Bautista, J.P. Arrencibia, and Adam Lind all sitting on the disabled list.

The last time these teams met at Rogers Centre, the A's grabbed two of three matchups, including a 16-0 drubbing of Toronto in the second game of the series. Bartolo Colon (7-8, 3.78 ERA) didn't face the Jays in that series, as the veteran goes for his second win in the last seven trips to the mound. The A's are 7-2 to the 'under' in Colon's previous nine starts, while going 4-2 in his last six outings at O.Co Coliseum.

Oakland owns a 16-4 record the last 20 home contests against right-handed starting pitchers, which includes losses to James Shields and Alex Cobb of Tampa Bay the last two days. Henderson Alvarez (7-7, 4.43 ERA) is coming off back-to-back underdog wins over Detroit and Boston, while silencing the potent Tigers' offense in a 5-1 triumph last Saturday. The Jays have won three of Alvarez's four starts against AL West opponents this season, with the lone loss coming in extra-innings at Texas.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-02-2012, 06:46 PM

Phillies try to complete sweep Thursday in D.C.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (47-57)

at WASHINGTON NATIONALS (61-42)

First pitch: Thursday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -110, Washington +100, Total: 7½

After making a flurry of moves to build for the future at the July 31 trading deadline, the last-place Philadelphia Phillies look for a sweep of the NL East-leading Washington Nationals on Thursday night.

Two southpaws take the hill in this one with the newly-rich Cole Hamels facing off against Ross Detwiler. Hamels is amid another strong season for the Phillies, going 11-5 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, striking out 138 batters in 138.2 innings this season. And, in his career, Hamels has dominated the Nationals. In 22 career starts he is 12-4 (his Phillies team is 17-5) with a 2.48 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, including 5-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his past nine starts in Washington. Detwiler is also having a good year, with a 3.54 ERA and 1.29 WHIP as a starter, having yielded just 22 walks in 84 innings. Detwiler’s numbers against the Phillies are far less impressive though, with a 1-3 record and 4.79 ERA in his five career starts versus them. However, in his most recent start last September, he outdueled Cliff Lee by throwing 7.1 shutout innings in a 3-0 victory. In terms of offense, Washington is much more capable of beating left-handed starters (17-13, .567), whereas the Phillies have been a dreadful 12-21 (.364) in this scenario. Take division-leading WASHINGTON to avoid the sweep here.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Nats:

PHILADELPHIA is 11-23 (32.4%, -18.1 Units) against the money line after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 3.4, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 3*).

At the trade deadline, the Phillies gave up two-thirds of their outfield in Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino, but the past two games without them have been no problem. Philadelphia has outscored the Nationals 11-2 in the first two games of this series, hitting five home runs between the two games. Hamels, who just signed a six-year, $144M contract extension, however, has had his own problems with the longball—he’s given up 18 this year, including one in his last start when he gave up five runs (three earned) in five innings of work, walking an uncharacteristic six batters. He typically goes deep into games, averaging 6.9 innings per start, but if it’s a short outing for him, that’s bad news for the Phillies. They have a team bullpen ERA of 4.66 on the road this year, losing 10 of 16 decisions.

Detwiler has adjusted to the role of starter better lately, with a 3.06 ERA and 4-2 record in his past six outings since rejoining the rotation. And unlike Hamels, he has a phenomenal bullpen supporting him with a 3.49 ERA on the season, already with 34 saves and 302 K’s in 322.2 IP on the season. Especially as slight underdogs, the Nationals should be the play here with a dominant record, 25-16 (.610), against NL East foes, holding them to just 3.4 runs per game. The Phillies, conversely, are a miserable 13-25 (.342) against divisional opponents, allowing 4.6 runs per game.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-02-2012, 06:51 PM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, August 2

Hot pitchers
-- Cueto is 4-0, 2.92 in his last four starts.
-- Detwiler is 1-1, 2.89 in his last three starts.
-- Eovaldi is 2-1, 2.62 in his last four starts. Minor is 3-1, 3.06 in his last five.
-- Lynn is 3-0, 2.55 in his last four starts.

-- Deduno is 3-0, 3.06 in his last three starts.
-- Dempster was 5-2, 1.40 in his last seven starts for the Cubs.
-- Colon is 1-1, 2.91 in his last five starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Ohlendorf is 1-1, 5.00 in five starts for San Diego.
-- Young is 0-4, 6.00 in his last five starts. Zito is 0-1, 5.11 in his last two.
-- Hamels is 1-2, 4.67 in his last five starts.
-- Colorado lost White's last four starts (0-3, 9.37).

-- Lester is 0-3, 12.76 in his last four starts.
-- Wilson is 0-3, 4.86 in his last five starts.
-- BChen is 0-3, 8.31 in his last six starts. Kluber is making his first big league start here; he is 11-7, 3.59 in 21 AAA starts this year. He allowed four runs in 4.1 IP in three big league relief stints LY.
-- Alvarez has a 5.93 RA in his last seven starts.

Hot Teams
-- Reds won 12 of their last 13 games.
-- Mets won three of their last four games.
-- Washington won eight of its last eleven games. Phillies won six of nine.
-- Braves won ten of their last thirteen home games.
-- Cardinals won nine of their last twelve games.

-- Red Sox won four of their last five games. Minnesota won four of six.

Cold Teams
-- Padres lost four of their last five games.
-- Giants lost six of their last seven games.
-- Marlins lost ten of their last fourteen games.
-- Rockies lost nine of their last ten games.

-- Rangers lost eight of their last 13 games. Angels are 4-8 in last 12 on road.
-- Kansas City lost five of its last seven games. Indians lost last five games, outscored 41-11
-- Toronto lost nine of its last 15 games. Oakland lost three of four.

Totals
-- 13 of last 18 San Diego games went over the total.
-- Over is 15-9-2 in Mets' last 26 games
-- Eight of last twelve Philly games went over the total.
-- Ten of last fourteen Miami games stayed under.
-- Three of last four Colorado games went over the total.

-- Eight of last eleven Minnesota games went over the total.
-- 19 of last 26 Texas games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven Cleveland games.
-- Over is 6-3-1 in last ten Toronto games.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-02-2012, 07:01 PM

Evening Games:

Philadelphia - 7:05 PM ET Philadelphia +101 500
Washington - Under 7.5 500

Minnesota - 7:10 PM ET Minnesota +178 500
Boston - Over 10 500

Miami - 7:10 PM ET Miami +163 500
Atlanta - Over 7.5 500

LA Angels - 8:05 PM ET LA Angels +111 500
Texas - Over 10.5 500

Cleveland - 8:10 PM ET Cleveland +117 500
Kansas City - Over 9.5 500

St. Louis - 8:40 PM ET St. Louis -156 500
Colorado - Under 11 500

Toronto - 10:05 PM ET Oakland -125 500
Oakland - Over 7.5 500

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