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**StarDust Bum** · 07-30-2012, 04:12 PM

Diamond Trends - Monday

July 30, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Yankees are 14-0 since April 14, 2011 at home when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $1400.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Braves are 10-0 OU since May 31, 2011 as a favorite when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher while allowing less than 8 runs, after playing in a day game for a net profit of $1000 when playing the over.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Giants are 17-0 since June 26, 2011 when Madison Bumgarner starts as a home favorite for a net profit of $1700.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Yankees are 6-0 since April 16, 2011 when Freddy Garcia starts as a home favorite after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $600.

-- The Astros are 0-6 since June 19, 2011 when Bud Norris starts on the road vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $600 when playing against.

-- The Angels are 7-0-1 OU since June 06, 2006 when Ervin Santana starts as a road dog after going less than five innings in his previous start vs this team for a net profit of $705 when playing the over.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-30-2012, 04:14 PM

Hot and Not

July 30, 2012

With the trade deadline 48 hours away, numerous teams will be making final pushes towards improving their rosters for a playoff run. Here's a look at who some of the hot buyers and cold sellers might be heading into the 18th week of the regular season.

$$$-Makers

Cincinnati Reds (6-0, $600): The absence of Joey Votto has hardly played a role for Manager Dusty Baker's squad who've now won 11 of their 13 games played without his services ($846). In sweeping the Rockies at Coors Field over the weekend, Cincy is now the proud owner of a 10-game win streak - a feat last pulled off by this franchise back in 1999. Brandon Phillips and company now hold a three-game lead over Pittsburgh atop the NL Central and are tied with the Nationals for the best record in the entire league! The secret to this team's success in 2012 has been a combination of solid defense and stellar pitching from both the starting rotation and bullpen.

On The Docket: Each of the club's next seven games will come at home where they'll hope to flex their muscles against San Diego before welcoming in the Buccos for a crucial series; the Redlegs have won 31 of 49 at home to date ($732).

Washington Nationals (6-1, $540): You can't help but come away impressed with the staying power the Nats have exhibited in only the second season of the Davey Johnson regime. Ryan Zimmerman and his mates are now one of the favorites to win the NL pennant and one of only two NL teams offering less than a 10:1 return on investment to win the World Series. Value is quickly eroding with this team, so if you want to back them on the futures market, now is the time to do it! Washington has held onto the top spot of the NL East for nearly three months, and they now get to return home off a successful seven-game road trip that saw them win both series against the Mets and Brewers.

On The Docket: The Nationals will look to take advantage of cellar dwelling Philadelphia and Miami over the course of the next week at Nationals Park where they check in 28-19 overall which has been good for a $325 return on investment; the Nats are 25-14 vs. division opponents this season.

Chicago White Sox (5-1, $504): Though it failed to win as much coin for its baseball betting backers as the two teams listed above, Chicago's run over the course of the last week might have been the most impressive! The White Sox returned home off a daunting 10-game road trip to sweep a Minnesota team that always gives them fits, then hit the road again and almost swept the Texas Rangers in Arlington. Though Texas' bats are struggling of late, giving up a total of nine runs in three games in that ballpark is awfully impressive!

On The Docket: Chicago will close out its road trip at vengeful Minnesota before returning home to face the Los Angeles Angels. Manager Robin Ventura's squad stands 28-24 on the road and 30-27 versus +.500 opposition on the year.

Honorable Mentions: Atlanta Braves (5-1, $407), Seattle Mariners (5-2, $300), Oakland A's (4-2, $228), Los Angeles Dodgers (4-3, $207)

$$$-Burners

Milwaukee Brewers (1-6, -$546): The cupboard is now wide open in Milwaukee for any team offering up an enticing package! Zach Greinke was just shipped off to Anaheim for a number of prospects, and more moves look to be on the horizon for General Manager Doug Melvin in the coming days. Save for Ryan Braun, everyone else on the roster looks to be up for grabs. Bullpen help should be top priority with the duo of Francisco Rodriguez and John Axford combining for an absurd 13 blown saves!

On The Docket: Milwaukee will close out its current seven-game homestand with three against the Triple-A Astros before hitting the road to take on the division rival St. Louis Cardinals at Busch; the Brew Crew's 20-22 (-$580) versus division opposition.

Kansas City Royals (1-6, -$431): So much for the Royals being a player within the AL Central in 2012. KC's roster is loaded with young talent, but after exploding in the second half of last season, both Eric Hosmer and Alex Gordon have failed to live up to their hefty preseason expectations; especially for fantasy players! Kansas City now brings up the rear of the division a hefty 14-games in back of Chicago and now possesses the worst overall record in the American League after dropping six of seven to both the Angels and Mariners over the course of last week.

On The Docket: Manager Ned Yost's underachieving outfit will now return home to battle the likes of the Cleveland Indians and Texas Rangers who are both fighting for playoff spots. The Royals are 2-10 their L/12 AL Central skirmishes as well as 6-21 their L/27 overall!

San Francisco Giants (2-4, -$364): What a difference a week makes! After winning both series played at Atlanta and Philadelphia last week to build its lead atop the NL West standings, the Giants returned home and laid an enormous egg in front of its rabid fans. They did win their series with the Padres 2-1, but then went out and scored a grand total of three runs en route to getting swept by Los Angeles Dodgers. In doing so, they once again find themselves tied with LA atop the division standings and are said to be on the hunt in looking to add some hitting thump to their rather pedestrian everyday line-up before the trade deadline.

On The Docket: The Giants will be out to put an end to their four-game losing streak and improve their 31-20 ($671) home record Monday night when they host the Mets in the first of a four-game set. They'll then hit the road to battle the last place Rockies at Coors Field in hopes of bettering their 24-26 ($41) record as visitors.

Dishonorable Mentions: Houston Astros (1-6, -$474), Colorado Rockies (1-5, -$315), New York Mets (2-5, -$239), Cleveland Indians (3-4, -$61)

**StarDust Bum** · 07-30-2012, 04:16 PM

Weekly Betting Notes

July 30, 2012

We saw lots of wheeling and dealing last week in baseball as the July 31 trade deadline approaches, but unlike past years, there didn’t seem to be a sense of urgency from general managers as some of them grumbled about what’s really at stake in the grand scheme of things.

The main reason for the grumbling is this year's new playoff format where four teams have the possibility of being one-and-out of the playoffs.

It’s a tough task to measure -- weighing out playoff possibilities that might happen against mortgaging your future away by dealing top prospects. While two more playoff positions were added for this season, the reward doesn’t seem as attractive for Wild Card teams as in the past where they’ll get only one game to ultimately decide the results of their long 162-game regular season schedule.

Teams that win the division this year will be guaranteed at least five games to show off their roster in the divisional series, but surprisingly, as of Monday morning, we didn’t see teams like the Yankees, Reds, Rangers, or Giants make any major transactions. The teams that tried to make their winning moves are those battling for Wild Card positions like the Pirates, Dodgers, White Sox, and Angels.

For this season only, to accommodate the late addition of the Wild Card game, the lower-seeded team will get the first two games at home in a best-of-five series, with the higher seeded team getting the final three games at home. Next season, it will be a 2-2-1 format.

It may seem like an edge getting the first two games at home because of early momentum possibly given to the lower-seeded team, but it really isn’t when considering the Wild Card team only gets to use their ace once in the five possible games.

Say the Angels win a Wild Card spot. Naturally, you’d expect Jered Weaver to start in what would be their most important game of their season at that time, but he won’t be seen again if winning by their ALDS opponent until Game 3 on the road, negating any edge they might have had in pitching. As good as Zack Grienke should be at home in one of the first two home games, he’s dreadfully average -- to say the least -- on the road.

I think some of the GM’s are feeling that they might be able to do more with less because of 10 playoff positions now. And if they lose the one-game playoff, at least they still have their hand-picked talent ready to blossom next spring.

Teams that gave up the most, like the Dodgers and Angels, have a tremendous amount of pressure to win right now. Teams like the Pirates, who haven’t had a winning season or playoff appearance in 19 years, feel they have enough in the tank to make a run for one of the playoff positions without letting go of their prized farm possessions.

Trade Deadline Winner
Even if the Dodgers don’t get Ryan Dempster or Shane Victorino as expected, they still had the most impactful transaction of the trade season by acquiring Hanley Ramirez from the Marlins. The sometimes aloof and disinterested Ramirez gets to start a new baseball life in a baseball city that is very forgiving and could make him a real star.

It was only a month ago when the Dodgers were mired in a seven-game losing streak, three of which came at rival San Francisco and allowed the Giants to take control of the NL West. Fast-forward to last weekend, with the new revived Dodgers featuring Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, and Ramirez hitting 2-3-4 in the lineup, and the Dodgers returned the favor by sweeping the Giants.

In his first five games with the Dodgers, Ramirez has got at least one hit and scored in all five, including seven RBI’s and a game winning extra-innings home run Friday night in San Francisco. Ramirez is the perfect addition to the Dodgers lineup and has them looking like a tough lineup again, like we saw in April and May when the entire West Coast was making trips to Las Vegas and betting the Dodgers to win the World Series.

Most sports books will tell you the Dodgers winning it all is their worst-case scenario with 12-to-1 being the current price offered. If you think this Ramirez-LA marriage can continue to be a beautiful honeymoon for two more months and don’t have a Dodgers ticket yet, you better get in line because 12-to-1 will be gone very soon.

One last cherry on top for the Dodgers; Clayton Kershaw’s foot problems looked to be a thing of the past on Sunday as the reigning Cy Young winner pitched his first game without allowing a run since May 19. Before Sunday’s game, Kershaw had seen his ERA balloon from 1.90 to 3.14 over that stretch.

Pirate Saturdays
Pittsburgh continued their hot run on Saturdays with a hard-fought 4-3 win at Houston, taking their record to 15-2 on Saturdays this season. No Saturday game will be as big as the one they play this week as they travel to Cincinnati, a team they have gamely been hanging with, but a 10-game win streak is hard to match. We’ll find out a lot about what the Bucs are made of in the series, and on Saturday, it doesn’t look promising with James McDonald on the mound.

In McDonald's first 17 starts of the season, he have up only four runs once, and kept the Pirates alive in low-scoring games. In his last four starts, he’s given up four runs or more in all four games, combining for a total of 20 runs allowed with Pittsburgh losing three of the games. On Sunday, he was very generous with an Astros squad that lost 12 straight games and helped them end their dubious streak.

McDonald did beat the Reds in his two starts against them earlier this season, allowing only one run in 14 innings, but the form of that pitcher is long gone. Look for the Reds to take two-of-three from the Bucs, including Saturday, despite their impressive run on that day of the week.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-30-2012, 04:18 PM

Angels-Rangers start 4-game set Monday

LOS ANGELES ANGELS (55-47)

at TEXAS RANGERS (59-41)

First pitch: Monday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -145, Los Angeles +135, Total: 11

Five games out of the lead in the AL West, the Angels head to the division-leading Texas Rangers for the beginning of a four-game set on Monday night.

Two struggling pitchers take the hill in this one with Ervin Santana and Roy Oswalt toeing the rubber. Santana has a 4-10 record on the season with a 6.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP and is coming off arguably his worst start of the season, in which he allowed three home runs and six earned runs in 1.2 innings, to none other than the Texas Rangers. It marked the second time in three starts that he hasn’t made it out of the second inning, a span in which he has a 16.00 ERA and 3.00 WHIP. Oswalt hasn’t fully found his form with a 5.21 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in his five starts this year, but has at least shown signs of life lately. The veteran righty has allowed just two earned runs on eight hits in 12 innings over his past two starts. He also catches the Los Angeles lineup amid a rough patch, having been shut out in two consecutive games by the Tampa Bay Rays. As a dominant home team with a 32-19 record (.627) at the Ballpark in Arlington, play on TEXAS to take this one and extend the AL West lead.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors Roy Oswalt and the Rangers:

OSWALT is 29-6 (82.9%, +22.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season in his career. (Team's Record). The average score was OSWALT 5.5, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 3*).

The Angels are respectable on the road with a 25-25 mark away from home, while they actually hold a 5-4 record over the Rangers this season. They have done well against divisional foes in general with a 14-11 (.560) record in those games. But with Santana on the mound it will be difficult to improve these records. The Angels are 5-14 when Santana takes the mound, including 3-7 on the road where he carries a hefty 6.96 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. While he has a 12-10 career record against Texas, he has a 5.82 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in those 25 starts. Since shutting out the Rangers in September 2010, he is 1-4 with a 7.49 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in his past six starts against them, allowing at least four runs in each start. And even though the Angels bullpen has a strong 3.32 ERA on the season, that number spikes a full run to 4.33 on the road. Los Angeles played without star rookie Mike Trout on Sunday because of a knee injury, but he could return on Monday. Trout, who leads the AL in hitting at .350, is 15-for-34 (.441) against Rangers pitching this year.

Despite his veteran status, the Angels are one team Roy Oswalt has never faced in his career. But, as a team, Texas is 26-21 against Los Angeles in the past three seasons, including 14-8 at home. Oswalt hasn’t pitched since July 17 because of back tightness, but he’s always been a great second half pitcher, going 83-29 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.14 WHIP after the All-Star break in his career. Despite Oswalt’s subpar numbers in 2012, the Rangers have won four of his five starts, including all three at home where he carries a 3.44 ERA and hasn’t allowed a home run in 18.1 innings. And he’s supported by a top-notch bullpen that has a 3.25 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, with 24 saves in 29 chances. And with a lineup that ranks fourth in the majors in runs (497), and is first or second in batting average (.276, 1st), on-base percentage (.339, 2nd) and slugging percentage (.442, 2nd) there should be no dearth of run support, especially against Santana. Take the favorites.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-30-2012, 04:20 PM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, July 30

Series won-lost records are now below the daily writeup.......

Hot pitchers
-- Former Red Volquez is 3-0, 1.99 in his last six starts. Leake is 2-1, 3.04 in his last seven outings.
-- Bedard is 1-1, 1.98 in his last couple starts.
-- Harang is 2-0, 3.42 in his last four starts.
-- Bumgarner is 1-1, 2.57 in his last three starts.

-- Buchholz is 4-1, 2.47 in his last eight starts. Scherzer is 5-1, 2.54 in his last seven starts.
-- Oswalt is 1-0, 1.50 in his last two starts, but he missed his last turn with back issues.
-- Quintana is 3-0, 2.80 in his last eight starts. De Vries has a 2.25 RA in his last couple starts.
-- Price is 5-0, 1.70 in his last six starts. Griffin is 3-0, 2.25 in six starts.
-- Iwakuma has a 2.45 RA in his lat two starts; he was in Japan over weekend for personal reasons, but is expected to start here.

Cold pitchers
-- Buehrle has a 5.65 RA in his last five road starts. Hanson has a 6.58 RA in his last seven starts.
-- Germano is 8-21, 4.88 in 36 big league starts; he is 9-4, 2.40 in 16 AAA starts this season.
-- Norris is 0-7, 7.43 in his last nine starts. Estrada is 0-4, 5.06 in 11 starts.
-- Cahill is 3-4, 6.53 in his last seven starts.
-- Hefner is 1-3, 6.55 in four starts this season.

-- FGarcia is 1-2, 5.00 in his last three starts. MGonzalez is 2-2, 5.32 in four starts this season.
-- ESantana is 0-3, 10.64 in his last five starts.
-- Romero is 0-6, 10.80 in his last six starts.

Hot Teams
-- Braves won eight of their last ten home games.
-- Padres are 15-10 in their last 25 games.
-- Cubs won nine of last 12 games at Wrigley. Pittsburgh won nine of its last twelve games overall.
-- Dodgers won eight of their last ten games.

-- White Sox won five of their last six games.
-- A's won 18 of their last 22 games. Rays won four of last six games, allowing three runs in last three.
-- Mariners won seven of their last nine games. Blue Jays won six of their last nine contests.

Cold Teams
-- Marlins are 3-8 in last 11 games, but won last two.
-- Phillies lost their last three games, scoring four runs.
-- Astros lost 26 of their last 29 games. Brewers lost nine of their last ten.
-- Arizona lost seven of its last nine road games.
-- Mets lost 14 of their last 17 games. San Francisco lost its last four games, outscored 25-6.

-- Bronx lost six of its last nine games. Baltimore lost five of its last seven.
-- Red Sox lost six of their last nine games. Detroit lost four of last six.
-- Rangers are 4-6 in their last ten games. Angels got shut out last two days.
-- Minnesota lost four of its last six games.

Totals
-- Eight of last eleven Miami games stayed under.
-- 10 of last 15 San Diego games went over the total.
-- Under is 11-3 in Cubs' last fourteen games.
-- Over is 9-4 in Houston's last 13 games, 5-2 in Brewers' last seven.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Arizona games.
-- Over is 14-7-2 in Mets' last twenty-three games, 8-4 in Giants' last 12.

-- Nine of last twelve Baltimore games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Detroit games.
-- 18 of last 23 Texas games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight Minnesota games went over the total.
-- Eleven of last thirteen Tampa Bay games stayed under.
-- Under is 24-8 in last thirty-two Seattle games.

2012 baseball series records

thru 7/29 Home Away Total
Arizona 9-7-2 4-9-3 13-16-5
Atlanta 7-6-4 10-4-2 17-10-6
Cubs 9-7 3-10-4 12-17-4
Cincinnati 9-5-2 9-5-3 18-10-5
Colorado 6-9-2 2-13-1 8-22-3
Houston 6-10-1 1-15 7-25-1
Dodgers 9-6-1 7-9-1 16-15-2
Miami 7-7-3 5-9-2 12-16-5
Milwaukee 9-7-1 4-11-1 13-18-2
Mets 7-9-1 6-9-1 13-18-2
Philadelphia 5-9-2 8-8-1 13-17-3
Pittsburgh 12-4 7-6-4 19-10-4
St Louis 9-6-1 7-9-1 16-15-2
San Diego 6-8-2 4-11-2 10-19-4
San Francisco 11-3-3 8-7-1 19-10-4
Washington 8-4-4 11-4-2 19-8-6
Baltimore 7-9-1 10-5-1 17-14-2
Boston 8-9 9-5-2 17-14-2
White Sox 8-7-1 7-7-3 15-14-4
Cleveland 7-8-2 8-7-1 15-15-3
Detroit 9-5-2 6-9-2 15-14-4
Kansas City 4-10-1 8-7-3 12-17-4
Angels 10-4-3 6-9-1 16-13-4
Minnesota 5-9-3 6-8-2 11-17-5
Bronx 10-4-2 9-6-2 19-10-4
A's 8-5-3 8-7-3 16-12-6
Seattle 6-9-1 7-10-1 13-19-2
Tampa Bay 7-7-3 8-7-1 15-14-4
Texas 12-4-1 8-7-1 20-11-2
Toronto 9-6-2 5-8-3 14-14-5

**StarDust Bum** · 07-30-2012, 04:38 PM

Monday, July 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Baltimore - 7:05 PM ET NY Yankees -170 500
NY Yankees - Under 10 500

LA Angels - 7:05 PM ET LA Angels +139 500
Texas - Over 11 500

Detroit - 7:10 PM ET Detroit +104 500
Boston - Under 9.5 500

Miami - 7:10 PM ET Miami +142 500
Atlanta - Over 8 500

San Diego - 7:10 PM ET Cincinnati -145 500
Cincinnati - Under 8.5 500

Pittsburgh - 8:05 PM ET Chi. Cubs +119 500
Chi. Cubs - Over 8.5 500

Chi. White Sox - 8:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox -124 500
Minnesota - Over 9 500

Houston - 8:10 PM ET Milwaukee -165 500
Milwaukee - Under 8.5 500

Tampa Bay - 10:05 PM ET Oakland +118 500
Oakland - Under 6.5 500

Toronto - 10:10 PM ET Seattle -105 500
Seattle - Under 7.5 500

Arizona - 10:10 PM ET Arizona +116 500
LA Dodgers - Over 7.5 500

NY Mets - 10:15 PM ET San Francisco -177 500
San Francisco - Under 6.5 500

**flashypants** · 07-30-2012, 06:48 PM

Gl pal

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The Bum's Monday's MLB Best Bets !

The Bum's Monday's MLB Best Bets !

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