The Bum's Saturday's MLB Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Zito & Giants Battle Dodgers In San Francisco

A key National League West series continues Saturday in San Francisco where the Giants host the Los Angeles Dodgers in the middle contest of a 3-game series.

Saturday's matinee is set for a 4:05 p.m. (ET) first pitch from Giants lefty Barry Zito who will be opposed by LA's Chad Billingsley. San Francisco opened at -120 with a 7½-run total priced evenly high and low.

The rivalry is intense under normal conditions, but promises to get pumped up a little more this weekend with the two clubs at the top of the division. San Francisco entered the weekend holding a 3-game lead over the Dodgers with Friday's clash still pending. No MLB odds were available due to Los Angeles not officially naming its starter for the match. The Dodgers were expected to recall Stephen Fife from their Triple-A club in Albuquerque to make the start against Matt Cain.

Los Angeles is short a starting pitcher at the moment after dealing for Hanley Ramirez from the Miami Marlins earlier this week. The key piece going back to Miami in that swap was young right-hander Nate Eovaldi who had originally been slated to pitch Friday for the Dodgers.

Neither of Saturday's starters will be a mystery to either lineup as Billingsley and Zito have each logged a lot of innings in this rivalry. Los Angeles is 10-9 in Billingsley's 19 career starts vs. the Giants, and he carries a 3.33 ERA against them including several relief appearances. Zito has faced the Dodgers for nearly 150 innings during his career dating back to his days with the Oakland Athletics, and owns a 3.73 lifetime ERA against Los Angeles.

This will be Zito's first start at home since the end of June, and his third go against the Dodgers this season. The southpaw tossed seven shutout innings in an 8-0 win at AT&T Park on June 25, but took a loss at LA in early May when he allowed three runs in six frames of a 9-1 Dodgers triumph. Los Angeles is 21-15 on the campaign when facing left-handed starters.

Billingsley just returned from a short stint on the disabled list due to a sore elbow. He was good for 100 pitches on Monday in St. Louis, surrendering just one run in six innings during Los Angeles' only victory over the Cardinals in the 4-game set.

He dropped a 3-0 decision to the Giants in San Francisco on June 27 when he was charged with all of their runs in a 6-inning appearance. The Dodgers won his earlier start this year against the Giants, though Billingsley didn't factor into the decision due to working just four innings (2 ER).

Los Angeles is wrapping up a 10-game road trip with this series, a trip that started well with four consecutive wins including a sweep at the Mets last weekend. The Dodgers dropped the last three games in St. Louis, however, and the 'over' is 5-2 on this journey.

The Giants just began a 10-game homestand by taking two of three from the San Diego Padres. Two of those affairs went 'over' the total, the only games to jump the scoreboard hurdle in the last 12 contests played in San Francisco.

One key injury note for this series involves San Francisco 3B Pablo Sandoval who strained his left hamstring during the series with San Diego. Sandoval was not expected to play Friday night, and the Giants could be forced to place the all-star on the DL if he hasn't responded to treatment in the next day or so.

Thanks to sweeping three successive series in 2006-07, and sweeping the first ever regular season series in the stadium back in April 2000, the Dodgers have an ever so slight 56-55 edge over the Giants at AT&T Park. That margin has been shrinking in recent years, however, with San Francisco winning 13 of the last 18 matchups. The Giants broomed the Dodgers here in late-June to gain a 4-2 advantage overall this season, and the 'under' has cashed in six of the last nine played in San Fran.

[StarDust Bum]

Angels, Rays Continue Critical Set From West Coast

Two playoff caliber teams in the American League, the Los Angeles Angels and Tampa Bay Rays, play the middle game of their weekend series on Saturday night at 9:05 p.m. (ET).

The Angels are $1.65 home favorites behind C.J. Wilson and the total is 7½ (shaded to the ‘under’). Matt Moore is on the hill for the Floridians.

Both teams need this series badly. The Angels are 5-games back of Texas in the AL West, but in front for a wild-card. Tampa Bay is in third place in the AL East, 8.5 games behind New York, but still right in the wild-card chase as well.

Note these standings are pending the Friday night series opener that had the Angels as identical $1.65 chalk behind Dan Haren.

Moore (6-7, 4.23 ERA) is 1-2 in his last three starts with a 4.59 ERA. He was dominant last year in both the regular season and the playoffs after getting called up in September. It was thought he would continue on that path this season, but has been mostly mediocre.

Don Best MLB analyst Kenny White thinks Moore has been undone by the scouting reports. He has just three pitches and needs a slider to add to his 95-96 mph fastball, curveball and changeup.

The 23-year-old lefty is just 1-3 with a 5.36 ERA in seven road starts this year.

Wilson (9-6, 2.89 ERA) saw the Angels win eight of his starts in a row come to an end on July 1. His ERA over that span was a microscopic 1.35.

The tough lefty couldn’t keep up that pace forever, going 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA in the last four. The Angels won just one of those contests, 6-3 at home against lowly Kansas City last Monday.

Don Best’s White doesn’t believe Wilson is out of gas despite the slide. He is still in the prime of his career at age 31 and should heat up again with more home outings coming up. Wilson has just eight home starts this year versus 13 away, with his home ERA (3.18) a little higher for now.

Los Angeles’ dynamic duo of Mike Trout and Mark Trumbo continue to put up big numbers. The rookie Trout isn’t getting the same accolades as Washington’s Bryce Harper, but he jumpstarts the offense, plays good defense and has a great arm. When he produces at the plate, this team is very hard to beat.

White likes the Angels as the play in this contest despite the price. He cites Moore struggling on the road and Evan Longoria still out of the lineup as two main factors.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday FOX Tips

July 27, 2012

The Saturday afternoon baseball showcases two legendary division showdowns, as the Dodgers battle the Giants in San Francisco while the Yankees and Red Sox hook up in the Bronx. The AL East race is quickly turning into New York's to lose, as Boston attempts to stage a comeback with two months remaining.

Red Sox at Yankees

It's the best and worst of the AL East meeting up towards the end of July and who would have thought Boston would be at the bottom of the division? Bobby Valentine's squad looked to be getting on track after series victories over the Rays and White Sox, but the Red Sox dropped five of the next six to fall into the cellar. The Yankees continue a nine-game homestand after a 2-5 swing at Oakland and Seattle.

New York sends out former Cy Young award winner CC Sabathia (10-3, 3.30 ERA) to the mound on Saturday. The southpaw is making his third start off the disabled list, while coming off a no-decision in his last outing at Oakland, as the Yankees squandered a 4-0 lead in a 5-4 defeat in extra-innings. Sabathia scattered six hits and three earned runs in seven innings, while the Yankees suffered their first loss with the lefty on the mound since June 3 against Tampa Bay. New York owns a 5-2 in Sabathia's seven home starts this season, as the Yanks lost both of his Bronx outings in 2011 to the Red Sox.

Another southpaw takes the hill for Boston, as Jon Lester (5-8, 5.46 ERA) is coming off three consecutive home losses. Lester has fared better away from Fenway Park this season by posting a 3-2 mark with an ERA of 3.04 in eight road outings. The lefty has yielded three earned runs or more in seven of the last eight starts, including five runs in 4.1 innings of a 7-3 home loss to the Yankees earlier this month.

The Yankees grabbed five of the first six meetings at Fenway Park before Friday's 10-3 victory, the third time New York has scored 10 or more runs on Boston. The Red Sox offense has struggled to find a rhythm recently by plating three runs or less in seven of the previous eight contests.

Dodgers at Giants

The last time Los Angeles visited AT&T Park in late June, the Dodgers' offense dried up by getting shut out in all three games of a Giants' sweep. That series helped San Francisco dust itself off and turn the NL West race into a two-team battle, as the Giants began the weekend with a three-game advantage over the Dodgers. L.A.'s lineup received a boost with the acquisition of third baseman Hanley Ramirez from Miami, but the Dodgers failed to win in his first two games at St. Louis. Ramirez came through on Friday night with a homer in extra innings to lift the Dodgers past the Giants, 5-3.

Chad Billingsley (5-9, 4.15 ERA) picked up a victory in his first start of the disabled list last Monday, a 5-3 triumph over the Cardinals as a $1.30 underdog. The Dodgers are just 2-3 in his five day starts, while the 'over' has cashed four times in his matinee outings. Billingsley has lost four of the last five starts against the Giants, including five straight at AT&T Park.

The Giants trot out former Cy Young award winner Barry Zito, who rebounded from two tough starts in mid-June to allow a total of eight earned runs in his last five outings. Zito received a no-decision in his previous start at Philadelphia, a 12-inning loss by the Giants. San Francisco is just 2-2 in Zito's four starts as a home favorite, with one of those victories coming over Los Angeles in late June. Zito tossed a gem by yielding just three hits in seven scoreless innings, while beating the Dodgers for the first time in five tries dating back to 2010.

Royals at Mariners

Even though this game will not be televised on FOX, it's still a contest that can be bet on. Seattle is 5-1 against Kansas City this season after grabbing a victory last night, 6-1. The Royals are just 4-14 the last 18 games, while not winning a series since sweeping the Rays at home in late June.

A pair of veteran pitchers takes the mound as Kevin Millwood and Bruce Chen face off for the second time in 10 days. The Royals won in walk-off fashion in that contest at Kauffman Stadium, 8-7 on a Billy Butler solo home run. Kansas City squandered a 7-3 lead, costing Chen his eighth victory on the season. Chen (7-8, 5.54 ERA) hasn't delivered a quality start in his last five trips to the mound, while allowing 25 earned runs in this stretch. The Royals have been involved in plenty of high-scoring games during this span, cashing the 'over' in each of Chen's past six starts.

The Mariners have lost each of Millwood's (3-8, 4.13 ERA) last six starts, while the offense has scored two runs or less in four of his previous five outings. Seattle's offense ranks last in the American League in runs scored at home, as the Mariners have hit the 'under' in four of Millwood's last five starts at Safeco Field. The M's are 6-0 to the 'under' in the previous six Game 3's of a series at home, while the Royals are 5-1 to the 'under' the last six Game 3's away from Kauffman Stadium.

[StarDust Bum]

Wilson looks to shut down Rays Saturday

TAMPA BAY RAYS (51-49)

at LOS ANGELES ANGELS (55-45)


First pitch: Saturday, 9:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -170, Tampa Bay +160, Total: 7½

The surging Angels look for a fifth win in six games when they host the struggling Rays (2-4 in past six games) in the middle of a three-game set on Saturday night.

Tampa Bay’s offense once again failed in Friday’s series opener, losing 3-1. That gives the Rays a total of five runs in their past four defeats. It won’t get any easier on Saturday facing Angels All-Star left-hander C.J. Wilson who is one of seven AL starters with an ERA under three this year. Tampa Bay counters with 23-year-old lefty Matt Moore, who hasn’t been very effective this season (1.40 WHIP), but has pitched well since the All-Star break, allowing just two runs in each of his two starts. Although Wilson hasn’t won in five straight outings, he has allowed more than three runs in a game just twice in 21 starts. Also, consider that the Rays are just 12-19 (.387) versus left-handed starters this year, batting .224 with 3.7 runs per game. On the flip side, the Angels are 19-14 (.576) against southpaw starters, batting .278 with 4.8 runs per game. The pick here is heavily-favored LOS ANGELES to win again.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Angels:

Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (TAMPA BAY) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL. (88-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (80%, +47.7 units. Rating = 3*).

Moore (6-7, 4.23 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) is coming off a huge performance against Seattle, holding the Mariners to two runs in eight innings, striking out seven and walking nobody. Moore has had control problems all year though, issuing 55 free passes, which is tied for sixth-most in the majors. The road hasn’t been kind to Moore, as he is 1-3 (team is 1-6) in his seven away starts due to a 5.36 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. He’s faced L.A. just once in his brief career, getting a no-decision in a 4-3 win on April 26 with a mediocre pitching line of: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K’s. Although Tampa’s bullpen has been shaky on the road this year (4.64 ERA), it has converted 30-of-36 save chances (83%), including 12-of-14 away from Tropicana Field. The Rays have also played well in Anaheim, going 7-3 in the Angels home stadium over the past three seasons.

Wilson (9-6, 2.89 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) has led his team to a 14-7 record this year, but he wasn’t at his best in his last outing versus Kansas City. He gave up three runs on nine hits in 6.2 innings, but he did have 6 K’s and just one walk. That was certainly a big improvement from his previous start in Detroit when he gave up seven runs in six innings. Wilson has been better on the road this season (6-3, 2.70 ERA), but his home numbers are still pretty strong at 3-3, 3.18 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. He’s allowed just two homers in 51 innings in Anaheim, while fanning 42 batters (7.4 K’s/9). Wilson has also enjoyed facing the Rays in his career, going 4-2 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over seven starts. Not counting two postseason games against the Rays, Wilson is 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA and .188 opponents’ BA in five regular-season starts against them. If Wilson does get into trouble on Saturday, he knows that his bullpen can pick him up. Los Angeles boasts an elite bunch of relievers, especially at home where they carry a 2.34 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Short Sheet

Saturday, July 28

National League

St. Louis at Chicago Cubs, 1:05 ET
Kelly: ST Louis 16-4 SU in road games after a game with a combined score of 15/+
Samardzija: CHI Cubs 3-13 SU when playing on Saturday this season

Philadelphia at Atlanta, 7:10 ET
Blanton: Philadelphia 4-12 SU when playing on Saturday
Minor: Atlanta 15-6 SU after a win by 4 runs or more

Pittsburgh at Houston, 7:05 ET
Rodriguez: Pittsburgh 8-1 SU off a one run win over a division rival
Galarraga: Houston 2-21 SU in July

San Diego at Miami, 7:10 ET
Ohlendorf: San Diego 14-8 SU in July
Eovaldi: Miami 9-22 SU at home when the total is 8.5 to 10

Washington at Milwaukee, 7:10 ET
Zimmermann: Washington 31-19 SU after 1 or more consecutive unders
Wolf: Milwaukee 8-17 after allowing 2 runs or less

NY Mets at Arizona, 8:10 ET
Young: NY Mets 5-17 SU in July
Kennedy: Arizona 14-3 SU after scoring 8 runs or more

Cincinnati at Colorado, 8:10 ET MLB
Cueto: 23-8 TSR as a favorite of -110 or higher
Friedrich: Colorado 1-9 SU after 3 games where they committed no errors

LA Dodgers at San Francisco, 4:05 ET FOX
Billingsley: LA Dodgers 245-288 SU after 5 or more consecutive road games
Zito: San Francisco 11-2 SU at home after having lost 2 of their last 3


American League

Detroit at Toronto, 1:05 ET
Sanchez: Detroit 34-13 SU after having lost 3 of their last 4
Alvarez: 1-8 TSR when the total is 9 to 9.5

Boston at NY Yankees, 4:05 ET FOX
Lester: Boston 8-18 SU after having lost 3 of their last 4
Sabathia: NY Yankees 64-23 SU in day games

Kansas City at Seattle, 4:10 ET
Chen: Kansas City 8-20 SU after 2 games without giving up a stolen base
Millwood: Seattle 13-7 SU with a hot BP whose WHIP is under 1.000 the last 5 games

Oakland at Baltimore, 8:05 ET
Colon: Oakland 18-3 SU in the second half of the season
Hunter: Baltimore 19-46 SU after a loss by 4 runs or more

Cleveland at Minnesota, 7:10 ET
Masterson: Cleveland 19-5 SU as a road favorite of -110 or higher
Deduno: Minnesota 13-24 SU at home when the total is 8.5 to 10

Chicago White Sox at Texas, 8:05 ET MLB
Humber: CHI White Sox 14-5 SU after scoring 8 runs or more
Harrison: Texas 10-16 SU after allowing 9 runs or more

Tampa Bay at LA Angels, 9:05 ET
Moore: Tampa Bay 9-4 SU as a road underdog of +125 to +175
Wilson: LA Angels 1-8 SU after a game where they stranded 3 or less runners

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Saturday, July 28

Game Score Status Pick Amount

St. Louis - 1:05 PM ET Chi. Cubs +101 500
Chi. Cubs - Under 7.5 500

Detroit - 1:07 PM ET Detroit -137 500
Toronto - Over 9.5 500

Boston - 4:05 PM ET Boston +171 500
NY Yankees - Over 9 500

LA Dodgers - 4:05 PM ET San Francisco +102 500
San Francisco - Over 7.5 500

Kansas City - 4:10 PM ET Seattle -104 500
Seattle - Under 7 500

Oakland - 7:05 PM ET Oakland +103 500
Baltimore - Over 9 500

Pittsburgh - 7:05 PM ET Pittsburgh -177 500
Houston - Over 8 500

Philadelphia - 7:10 PM ET Atlanta -125 500
Atlanta - Under 8.5 500

San Diego - 7:10 PM ET San Diego +122 500
Miami - Over 9 500

Washington - 7:10 PM ET Washington -126 500
Milwaukee - Over 8 500

Cleveland - 7:10 PM ET Cleveland -123 500
Minnesota - Under 9 500

Chi. White Sox - 8:05 PM ET Chi. White Sox +180 500
Texas - Under 10 500

NY Mets - 8:10 PM ET NY Mets +163 500
Arizona - Under 9 500

Cincinnati - 8:10 PM ET Cincinnati -146 500
Colorado - Under 10 500

Tampa Bay - 9:05 PM ET Tampa Bay +149 500
LA Angels - Under 7.5 500