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**StarDust Bum** · 07-25-2012, 11:59 PM

Dodgers & Cardinals Close Set In St Louis

The St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers finish up their 4-game series with a getaway game on Thursday afternoon. The contest could mark the Dodgers debut for Hanley Ramirez who was acquired from the Miami Marlins in a 4-player deal early Wednesday morning.

Thursday's clash is set for a 1:45 p.m. (ET) start and features Jake Westbrook on the mound for the Cardinals against LA's Chris Capuano. MLB odds opened with Westbrook and the Cards as $1.45 favorites with a 9-run total that favored the 'over.'

Don Best MLB analyst Kenny White called Ramirez a "game changer" despite the former NL Rookie of the Year not having a great year so far in Miami. Ramirez was asked to move to third base this season after the Marlins' winter spending spree included signing free agent shortstop Jose Reyes.

It appears Ramirez will move back to shortstop for Los Angeles, at least for the short-term while Dee Gordon is on the disabled list with an injured thumb. Gordon's offensive shortcomings could relegate him to a reserve role and leave Ramirez at short for the long haul.

It was not known if Ramirez would arrive in St. Louis in time for Wednesday's contest. The Cardinals were listed at -145 for that game which was still pending after the clubs split the first two games of the series.

Capuano (10-5, 2.81) earned his first victory in nearly a month with a nice performance against the Mets last Saturday when he tossed seven innings of 3-run baseball while recording nine strikeouts. He had a strong first two months of the season, but LA is just 5-5 in his last 10 starts. His road ERA is 4.10 compared to 1.64 at Dodger Stadium.

"A day game, with the temperatures rising in St. Louis against a very solid lineup," White noted, "not a good situation for Capuano."

Westbrook (8-8, 3.60) has pitched very well his last three starts, but the Cardinals only managed to win one of the games with their offense scoring only two runs in both losses. The veteran right-hander relies on his sinker and cutter to keep the ball on the ground at almost a 3:1 ratio of grounders to fly balls.

Unlike Capuano, however, Westbrook's best work has come on the road rather than at home. His splits show a 4.01 ERA at Busch Stadium in 10 starts, and a 3.19 mark in nine road assignments.

Westbrook dropped his only start against the Dodgers this year when Clayton Kershaw tossed a 6-hit shutout vs. St. Louis in LA on May 19. Capuano's last start against the Cards came in St. Louis last September while he was pitching for the Mets. The lefty failed to make it through the fifth inning and was charged with four runs.

Keep track of the latest MLB line moves, injury updates and betting trends all season by following the Don Best Pro Odds.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-26-2012, 01:25 PM

MLB

Thursday, July 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tampa Bay 0 Bot 2 Tampa Bay -105 500
Baltimore 0 Over 9 500

Oakland 1 Bot 3 Oakland +107 500
Toronto 0 Over 9 500

LA Dodgers - 1:45 PM ET St. Louis -138 500
St. Louis - Under 9 500

Pittsburgh - 8:05 PM ET Houston +145 500
Houston - Under 8.5 500

Washington - 8:10 PM ET Washington +122 500
Milwaukee - Over 8 500

NY Mets - 9:40 PM ET NY Mets +155 500
Arizona - Over 9 500

Kansas City - 10:10 PM ET Kansas City +107 500
Seattle - Under 7 500

**StarDust Bum** · 07-26-2012, 01:32 PM

Diamond Trends - Thursday

July 26, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Athletics are 20-0 (+3.1 rpg) since August 26th 2004 in the last game of a 3+ game series following a shutout win.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Nationals are 0-10 OU since June 25, 2011 as a road dog after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $1000 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Brewers are 9-0 since April 05, 2011 when Yovani Gallardo starts at home against an NL opponent after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $900.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Cardinals are 18-2-1 OU since August 4, 2007 after a game yesterday which was tied on exactly three separate occasions.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Tigers are 7-0 since July 10, 2011 when Justin Verlander starts as a road 140+ favorite when he is off a start in which he needed more than 4 pitches per batter for a net profit of $700.

-- The Mariners are 0-7 OU since May 18, 2011 when Jason Vargas starts at home after his team scored a total of fewer than three runs in his last start for a net profit of $700 when playing the under.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-26-2012, 01:34 PM

Thursday Tips

July 25, 2012

The Thursday night baseball card wraps up with five games, including three division leaders taking their talents to the highway. The surprising Pirates and Nationals each begin four-game series against NL Central opponents, while the Diamondbacks look to stay hot when the slumping Mets travel to the desert. We'll begin in Cleveland as the red-hot Tigers attempt to keep their hold atop the AL Central against the Tribe.

Tigers at Indians - 7:05 PM EST

Detroit started the season slow out of the gate, but Jim Leyland's club won 13 of 15 games before falling at Cleveland on Tuesday night. The Tigers grabbed first place in the division after sweeping the White Sox at home over the weekend, while the Indians are slowly falling out the race by compiling a 12-16 record since late June.

Last year's AL Cy Young winner and MVP Justin Verlander (11-5, 2.42 ERA) is back to his elite form following victories in five of his last six trips to the mound. Verlander has tossed at least eight innings in each of his previous three starts, including a four-hit performance in a 4-2 home triumph over the White Sox. In his only start against the Indians this season, Verlander lost a 2-1 pitchers' duel as a $1.60 road favorite on May 24, halting a mini-two game winning streak versus Cleveland since the start of 2011.

The Indians have won three of Zach McAllister's (4-2, 3.21 ERA) last five starts since returning to the rotation at the end of June. The right-hander has allowed eight hits and four earned runs in his previous two outings, while splitting decisions against the Orioles and Rays. Cleveland is 4-2 in McAllister's six home starts, as the Indians are 4-1 at Progressive Field against the Tigers in 2012 after last night's 5-3 loss.

Pirates at Astros - 8:05 PM EST

Pittsburgh makes it first trip to Texas this season after taking six of the first seven meetings with Houston. The Bucs avoided a sweep by knocking off the Cubs on Wednesday afternoon to stay within striking distance of the Reds atop the NL Central. The Astros traded off left-handed pitcher Wandy Rodriguez to the Pirates on Tuesday, continuing Houston's two-year long fire sale. Things have bottomed out for Brad Mills' squad, which have won two games since the end of June.

A.J. Burnett (11-3, 3.59 ERA) continues to be a Cy Young candidate in the National League after winning his 10th game in the last 12 decisions. Burnett beat his old team in his past trip to the mound by stifling the struggling Marlins, 5-1, while tossing 7.2 innings of eight-hit ball. Surprisingly, Burnett is listed as a road favorite for just the second time this season in eight away starts, as the righty gave up 12 hits and six earned runs in just five innings the last time he faced the Astros at home.

Southpaw Dallas Keuchel (1-2, 4.03 ERA) looks to rebound after consecutive road losses to the Pirates and Diamondbacks. Keuchel is coming off his first start of less than five innings as the Houston hurler allowed seven runs in 3.1 innings of a 12-3 pounding at Arizona. The former Arkansas Razorback has pitched well in two starts at Minute Maid Park by delivering quality outings against the Indians and Padres.

Nationals at Brewers - 8:10 PM EST

Last season, Milwaukee won its division while Washington barely finished below .500. The two teams are switching roles this season as the Nationals own the best record in the National League while the Brewers likely won't make the postseason. The two clubs meet at Miller Park for the first time this season, as the home squad won all six matchups in 2011.

Milwaukee returns home following a winless trip at Cincinnati and Philadelphia, as Yovani Gallardo (8-7, 3.72 ERA) goes for his fourth consecutive quality start at Miller Park. Gallardo lost his last outing to the Reds, giving up four earned runs and striking out just one batter in a 6-2 defeat. The 'over' has cashed in six of Gallardo's nine home outings, while the Brewers are 4-0 in his previous four home starts.

The Nationals counter with Edwin Jackson (5-6, 3.73 ERA), as Washington is just 2-8 when the right-hander starts on the road. Jackson has dropped four of his last six decisions, while pitching past the sixth inning just once in his past four trips to the mound. Davey Johnson's team owns an excellent 9-2 mark the last 11 games as a road underdog heading into Thursday's action.

Mets at Diamondbacks - 9:40 PM EST

These two teams are going in completely different directions as New York heads out west with a 1-12 record since the All-Star break. The D-Backs have fought back after a slow start to be a force inside the NL Wild Card race with victories in seven of their previous 10 contests. However, Arizona has taken care of its business against the two worst teams in the NL, Houston and Colorado.

The D-Backs send out Wade Miley (11-5, 3.02 ERA), who has cooled off following a hot start to the season. The southpaw has allowed 16 earned runs in his last four starts after giving up just 11 earned runs in his previous six outings (May-June). The 'under' is 6-2 in Miley's last six starts, while yielding four earned runs in a 5-4 victory at Citi Field in early May.

With all the injuries to the Mets' rotation, Terry Collins hands the ball to right-hander Matt Harvey, who makes his Major League debut. Harvey (7-5, 3.68 at Triple-A Buffalo) struck out 112 batters in 110 innings of work in the minors, as the former UNC standout replaces veteran Miguel Batista. The Mets have dropped six of their past seven games away from Citi Field, while looking for their first victory in Phoenix since 2009.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-26-2012, 01:36 PM

Red-hot Tigers look for series win at Cleveland

DETROIT TIGERS (53-45)

at CLEVELAND INDIANS (49-49)

First pitch: Thursday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -165, Cleveland +155, Total: 7½

Treading water at .500, the Cleveland Indians will look to gain a series win over the Detroit Tigers when the division foes play the rubber match of a three-game set on Thursday night.

The Tigers are perhaps the hottest team in baseball, with a 15-5 record in July, including a 9-3 mark against divisional foes. This run has put them in a tie for first in the AL Central with the White Sox. Reigning AL Cy Young and MVP Justin Verlander has led Detroit to victory in all three of his July starts, going 3-0 with a 1.08 ERA, 0.64 WHIP and an average of 8.3 innings per start. On the season, Verlander has a 2.42 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, but he has never quite figured out the Indians in his career—in 28 career starts against them, he owns a robust 4.70 ERA, with the Tigers only coming out victorious in half of those games. In 16 career starts at Progressive Field, Verlander has posted horrific numbers: 6-9, 5.79 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. On Thursday, he faces Zach McAllister who has a 3.21 ERA on the season, leading his team to a 6-3 record in his nine starts. He has also been dominant in his past three outings, going 1-1 with a 1.86 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, striking out 19 in 19.1 innings. And McAllister will take the rubber at home, where the Indians have owned the Tigers over the past three seasons to the tune of a 17-6 record, including 4-1 this year. Play on heavy underdog CLEVELAND to win the series finale.

This pair of two-star FoxSheets trends also favor the Indians:

Play On - Home teams (CLEVELAND) - with an on-base percentage of .285 or worse over their last 5 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 0.800 over his last 3 starts. (40-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (62.5%, +21.8 units. Rating = 2*).

DETROIT is 23-33 (-18.8 Units) against the money line vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season. The average score was DETROIT 4.5, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 2*).

The Tigers are 13-7 with Verlander on the mound, including seven wins in his past eight starts. He has also pitched at least six innings in 62 straight outings, the longest streak in the majors since Steve Carlton (1979-1982). But Verlander’s lone start against Cleveland in 2012 was a loss, although he pitched well, allowing just two earned runs in eight innings with seven strikeouts. Even with that loss, Verlander is 9-2 in 13 starts against the Indians since 2009. But Cleveland has usually found a way to make solid contact against the dominant right-hander, hitting four home runs off him in his past three starts. Verlander, despite his successes, has always allowed longballs, with five leaving the park on him in his last four overall outings. Still, given his numbers, the surging Tigers (14-3 in past 17 games) are understandably favorites in this game. Given his career stats versus the Tribe, however, Detroit is too chalky in this one.

While the Tigers have been hot, the Indians have been struggling, with losses in five of their past seven games. The offense has failed to surpass three runs in 10 of their pat 11 games, including seven in a row. McAllister has no decisions against the Tigers in his career, but has started against them twice, pitching well each time to the tune of a 1.59 ERA. In his lone start this year, he went 6.1 innings, yielding two runs on eight hits, striking out three and walking none. Both teams in this game feature average bullpens, but Cleveland’s is notably better at home (3.62 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) whereas Detroit’s is much worse on the road (4.26 ERA, 1.36 WHIP).

**StarDust Bum** · 07-26-2012, 01:44 PM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, July 26

Hot pitchers
-- Westbrook is 3-2, 2.79 in his last six starts.
-- Pirates won 13 of last 14 Burnett starts (2-1, 3.00 last three).
-- Gallardo is 2-1, 2.13 in his last four starts.
-- Miley is 2-0, 2.84 in his last couple starts.

-- Milone is 1-0, 1.35 in his last three starts. Laffey is 2-0, 3.00 in his last couple starts.
-- Verlander is 6-1, 2.29 in his last seven starts. McAllister is 1-1, 2.63 in his last couple outings.
-- Vargas is 3-0, 1.86 in his last four starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Capuano is 1-2, 5.79 in his last three starts.
-- Keuchel is 0-2, 11.00 in his last couple starts.
-- Jackson is 1-2, 7.40 in his last four starts.
-- Highly-touted rookie Harvey makes his MLB debut here; he was 7-5, 3.68 in 20 starts at AAA Buffalo.

-- Shields is 1-2, 6.18 in his last six starts. Tillman has a 5.74 RA in his three starts, all of which were on the road.
-- Mendoza is 2-3, 3.66 in his last five starts.

Hot Teams
-- Pirates won six of their last eight games.
-- Nationals are 9-4 in their last thirteen road games.
-- Cardinals won five of their last six games. Dodgers won five of last seven.
-- Arizona won eight of its last nine home games.

-- Tampa Bay won four of its last five away games.
-- A's won seven in row, 16 of their last 18 games.
-- Detroit won 14 of its last 17 games.

Cold Teams
-- Brewers lost their last six games, allowing 32 runs.
-- Mets lost twelve of their last thirteen games.
-- Astros lost 22 of their last 24 games.

-- Indians lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Blue Jays are 4-6 in their last ten home games.
-- Baltimore lost its last three games, outscored 16-3.
-- Seattle lost six of its last eight home games. Royals lost 12 of their last 15 games overall.

Totals
-- Nine of last eleven St Louis games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Houston games. Nine of last ten Pittsburgh tilts stayed under.
-- Under is 11-5-1 in last seventeen Washington games.
-- Over is 13-5-1 in Mets' last nineteen games.

-- Seven of last nine Tampa Bay games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight Oakland games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last eleven Cleveland games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 21-7 in last twenty-eight Seattle games.

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