The Bum's Sunday's MLB Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Rangers & Angels Close Series In Anaheim

Another big weekend of baseball action draws to a close with ESPN's weekly Sunday Night Baseball broadcast. This week's cherry-picked prime-time matchup is a clash of AL West titans in Anaheim where the Angels entertain the Texas Rangers.

Drawing the starting assignment for the defending AL champions is lefty Matt Harrison. The Angels are expected to activate Dan Haren from the disabled list to make the first pitch a little past 8:00 pm. (ET).

This is obviously a huge series for the Rangers and Angels, but it has become even more critical in the overall scheme with the recent surge by the Oakland Athletics who are suddenly closing on both teams in the division race. Texas started play Saturday with a 5-game advantage on the Halos in second place, while the A's are just 6.5 out in third.

The Angels drew first blood in the weekend set with a 6-1 triumph on Friday night as 140 favorites. Jered Weaver enjoyed another strong performance in front of the home fans, and was supported by home run power from Mark Trumbo and Mike Trout. Texas was a slight favorite in the -115 to -120 range in Saturday afternoon's contest that was still pending. Yu Darvish was slated for the Rangers opposite Ervin Santana, and the game was carrying an 8½-run total ('over' -120).

Back spasms forced Haren to the DL for the first time in his 10-year career earlier this month, and he was given the green light to get back on a major league mound following one rehab start in the minors and a short session in Anaheim on Friday. It remains to be seen how long manager Mike Scioscia will let him pitch on Sunday after back pain bothered the right-hander the first three months of the campaign.

Haren faced Harrison and the Rangers in early June, and took the loss in Texas' 7-3 decision. He labored through five innings while burning 104 pitches, and allowed two of the Rangers' runs before they got to the Halos bullpen to break open a 2-1 game at the time of Haren's departure. Los Angeles split his four starts vs. Texas in 2011.

Harrison may not be thought of as the ace of the Rangers staff, but he has certainly pitched that way this season. The southpaw leads the rotation in wins (12), ERA (2.87) and quality starts (13), with Texas backers up a little more than six units after his 5-hit, complete game shutout in Seattle a week ago. Harrison has won eight of his 10 assignments away from Texas where he has pitched to a 2.76 ERA.

One of the eight road wins came in Anaheim on June 3 at Haren's expense. Harrison worked into the seventh and allowed all three Angels runs; the Halos beat him in Texas three weeks before that when Harrison surrendered four runs in six frames. That was the same MO Harrison followed in 2011 with a winning effort on the road and a loss at home.

Texas has won this season series the past three years, but the Angels inched ahead 4-3 in 2012 with Friday's victory. The Halos took two of three in Anaheim back in early-June, their only loss coming in the Harrison-Haren matchup.

In addition to getting Haren back from the DL for Sunday's game, the Angels are closer to seeing two more injured players return. Catcher Chris Iannetta (wrist) was slated to start a rehab assignment this weekend and outfielder Vernon Wells (thumb) is already down on the farm and working his way back towards the big league roster.

Texas is also in the process of returning a few players from the injury and restricted lists. Catcher Yorvit Torrealba has been out on paternity leave and was expected to be activated in time for Saturday's contest. Right-hander Neftali Feliz (elbow) has begun his rehab assignment and could be activated by the end of the month, while first baseman Mitch Moreland (hamstring) should start his rehab activity within the next 4-5 days.

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Sunday

July 22, 2012


SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Brewers are 0-14 since April 03, 2011 as a road dog and it is the last game of the series after playing in a night game for a net profit of $1400 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Diamondbacks are 0-9 OU since May 22, 2011 after playing as a favorite and it is the last game of a three game series when they won the first two after playing in a night game for a net profit of $900 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Red Sox are 13-0 since June 27, 2006 when Jon Lester starts as a favorite when their team used 6+ pitchers yesterday for a net profit of $1300.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Mets are 2-8 since April 20, 2011 as a favorite with no rest after a loss where they used at least 5 pitchers.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Yankees are 8-0 since April 28, 2011 when CC Sabathia starts as a 140+ favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $800.

-- The Reds are 12-0 since July 31, 2011 when Johnny Cueto starts as a 140+ favorite vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $1200

[StarDust Bum]

Rangers at Angels

July 21, 2012

Stats used in this preview do NOT include the results from Saturday.

The Texas Rangers (55-37, +44) will attempt to add cushion to their lead in the American-League West when they take on the Los Angeles Angels in Sunday’s prime-time affair in Southern California.

Ron Washington’s club went into Saturday’s play with a five-game lead over the second-place Halos.

Most books opened this game as a pick ‘em with a total of eight ‘over’ (minus-115). Gamblers can take the Angels on the run line (minus 1 ½ runs) for a monster plus-175 return (risk $100 to win $175).

Matt Harrison (12-4, 2.87) will get the starting nod for the Rangers, who have seen the ‘under’ cash at a 12-5 clip in his 17 outings. Harrison has been dynamite all season long, compiling an 8-2 record and 2.76 ERA in 10 road assignments. The ‘under’ has gone 6-4 in his road starts.

L.A. will counter Harrison with Dan Haren, who is 6-8 with a 4.86 ERA. The veteran right-hander has been on the disabled list since July 4 with soreness in his back. Haren is 2-5 with a 4.53 ERA in nine home starts this year.

The Angels are an abysmal 2-7 with Haren on the mound at home. The ‘under’ has gone 5-4.

Texas has the second-best record in the majors thanks in large part to sluggers Adrian Beltre and Josh Hamilton. Beltre is hitting .321 with 17 homers and 59 RBIs, while Hamilton is batting .299 with 28 homers and 78 RBIs.

The Rangers went into Saturday’s action with a 26-21 road record. Meanwhile, the Angels were cashing tickets at a 26-18 clip in their home games.

The ‘under’ is 52-39 overall for L.A., 27-16 in its home games.

The ‘under’ is 50-39 overall for the Rangers, 26-20 in their road games. The ‘under’ had hit in four straight and 13 of their last 15 before Saturday’s game against L.A.

The Angels have posted a 17-13 record in 30 previous games against left-handed pitching, while the Rangers have gone 39-23 versus righties.

ESPN will provide television coverage at 8:05 p.m. Eastern.

[StarDust Bum]

Rangers-Angels finish 3-game set Sunday night

TEXAS RANGERS (56-37)

at LOS ANGELES ANGELS (51-44)


First pitch: Sunday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -110, Los Angeles +100, Total: 8

After crushing the Angels 9-2 on Saturday, the Rangers look to extend their division lead to seven games when the AL West rivals complete a three-game set on Sunday night.

Texas was held to just one run in Friday’s 6-1 defeat, but it bounced back in a big way on Saturday by jumping out to a 7-0 lead and hitting four of its five homers in the game’s first three innings. Former Angel Mike Napoli clubbed two of those bombs, and is now hitting .434 (23-for-53) with 8 HR in 14 games at Angel Stadium since L.A. traded him before the 2011 season. On Sunday, he and his Rangers teammates will face Dan Haren who is 4-9 in 18 career starts versus Texas, losing six of his past seven decisions to its rival. The Rangers counter with 12-game winner Matt Harrison who beat Haren and the Angels 7-3 on June 3 giving him a stellar 1.03 WHIP and serviceable 3.91 ERA in his four starts in this series since 2009. Considering how these two pitchers have performed in their past three starts -- Harrison 1.44 ERA and 1.12 WHIP; Haren 9.98 ERA and 1.96 WHIP -- the pick here is TEXAS to win again on the road.

This pair of two-star FoxSheets trends also support the Rangers:

Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (L.A. ANGELS) - poor offensive team - scoring <=4.7 runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 9 runs or more. (249-120 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.5%, +72 units. Rating = 2*).

Play On - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (TEXAS) - allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season (AL) against opponent starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest. (165-89 over the last 5 seasons.) (65%, +54.5 units. Rating = 2*).

Harrison (12-4, 2.87 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) has allowed more than two runs in a start only once since May 22, a span of 10 outings. The Angels were able to push across three runs against him in 6.2 innings on June 3, but his numbers during this 10-game stretch are exceptional -- 8-1, 1.34 ERA, 1.08 WHIP. Harrison has also been one of the best road pitchers in baseball this year, going 8-2 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 10 away outings, averaging 7.2 innings per start. Three current Angels that cringe whenever the lefty takes the hill are Torii Hunter (1-for-15 lifetime versus Harrison), Erick Aybar (2-for-16) and Albert Callaspo (4-for-23). And on the off chance that Harrison struggles, he knows that is bullpen is plenty capable of picking him up, posting a stellar 2.64 ERA and 1.03 WHIP on the road this season, converting 11 of 14 save chances (79%).

Haren (6-8, 4.86 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) is suffering through a nightmare stretch, giving up at least five runs in four straight starts. Although he’s 2-2 in this span, his 9.14 ERA, 1.87 WHIP and .355 opponents’ BA has the Rangers chomping at the bit to start this game. That’s especially true for Adrian Beltre who has destroyed Haren in his career with a .436 BA (24-for-55), 1.264 OPS, 3 HR and 11 RBI against him. David Murphy (1.162 OPS in 22 AB), Mitch Moreland (1.100 OPS in 10 AB), Nelson Cruz (1.043 OPS in 14 AB) and Josh Hamilton (.924 OPS in 18 AB) have also thrived against Haren. Pitching in his home stadium hasn’t helped either, as the Angels are 2-7 at home with Haren on the mound this year. Luckily for him, the bullpen hasn’t had the same problem, with a 2.28 ERA and 1.20 WHIP at Angel Stadium this season.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, July 22

Hot pitchers
-- Cueto is 6-2, 2.11 in his last eight starts. Fiers is 2-1, 0.77 in his last five.
-- Niese is 3-1, 3.06 in his last five starts.
-- Zito is 3-1, 1.80 in his last four starts.
-- Detwiler has a 2.66 RA in his last four starts.
-- Karstens is 2-0, 1.20 in his last couple starts.
-- Lynn is 1-0, 1.69 in his last couple starts. Wood is 4-1, 3.48 in his last five starts.
-- Collmenter is 1-0, 2.25 in his last three starts.

-- Colon has a 1,84 RA in his two starts since coming off the DL. Bronx Bombers won 11 of last 14 Sabathia starts.
-- Harrison is 9-1, 1.34 in his last ten starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Eovaldi is 1-4, 6.59 in his last five starts.
-- Blanton is 2-2, 4.98 in his last five starts.
-- ASanchez has a 6.27 RA in his last eight starts.
-- Jurrjens has a 6.86 RA in his last four starts.
-- Lyles is 1-5, 6.23 in his last seven starts.
-- Friedrich is 1-6, 7.55 in his last eight starts. Ohlendorf has a 6.28 RA in his three starts for San Diego.

-- Humber has a 7.17 RA in his last four starts. Turner has a 10.29 RA in his two starts this season.
-- Lester is 1-3, 5.52 in his last five starts. Alvarez is 2-2, 6.21 in his last six.
-- Beavan has a 10.42 RA in his last four starts. Moore has a 5.25 RA.
-- Guthrie was 0-5, 8.36 in his last six starts for Colorado. Deduno has a 6.52 RA in his first two starts this season.
-- Tomlin has a 6.65 RA in his last four starts. Britton allowed four runs in four IP in his '12 debut.
-- Haren had a 9.00 RA in his last five starts before going on the DL.

Hot Teams
-- Braves won 10 of their last 13 games.
-- Dodgers won their last three games, scoring 20 runs.
-- Pirates won 11 of their last 13 home games.
-- San Francisco won seven of its last eight games.
-- Cubs won six of their last nine games.
-- Reds are 13-5 in their last 18 home games.
-- Arizona won its last five home games, scoring 42 runs.
-- Padres won six of their last eight games.

-- Baltimore won its last four games, allowing seven runs.
-- Detroit won 11 of its last 13 games.
-- Mariners are 5-3 in their last eight games.
-- A's won 13 of their last 15 games.

Cold Teams
-- Washington is 4-5 in its last nine home games.
-- Mets lost eight of their last nine games.
-- Phillies lost their last three games, allowing 18 runs.
-- Brewers lost seven of their last ten road games.
-- Miami lost six of its last seven road games.
-- Cardinals are 3-5 in their last eight games.
-- Astros lost 18 of their last 19 road games.
-- Colorado lost five of its last seven games.

-- Indians lost six of their last eight games.
-- White Sox lost five of their last six games.
-- Red Sox are 5-10 in their last 15 games. Toronto lost seven of its last ten away games.
-- Tampa Bay is 9-13 in its last 22 home games.
-- Twins lost nine of their last thirteen games. Royals lost nine of their last eleven games.
-- Bronx Bombers lost last three games, scoring six runs.
-- Texas lost six of last ten road games. Angels are 3-6 in last nine overall.

Totals
-- Under is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Washington games.
-- Five of last six Pirate games stayed under the total.
-- Four of Phillies' last five games went over the total.
-- Under is 13-2-2 in last seventeen Cincinnati home games.
-- 11 of Mets' last 15 games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven St Louis games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Arizona games.
-- Six of last eight San Diego games went over the total.

-- Under is 7-3-2 in Baltimore's last twelve games.
-- Under is 18-8-1 in last 27 White Sox games.
-- Under is 10-3-1 in Toronto's last fourteen games.
-- Over is 10-5 in Kansas City's last fifteen home games.
-- Under is 17-7 in last twenty-four Seattle games.
-- 11 of last 12 Oakland home games stayed under.
-- 13 of last 16 Texas games stayed under the total.

Umpires
-- LA-NY-- Six of last eight Joyce games went over the total.
-- Chi-StL-- Last four Culbreth games stayed under the total.
-- SF-Phil-- Under is 4-1-2 in last seven Gonzalez games.
-- Atl-Wsh-- Eight of last nine Marquez games stayed under.
-- Mia-Pitt-- Underdogs are 12-8 in last twenty Iassogna games.
-- Mil-Cin-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Carlson games; underdogs won four of hi last six.
-- Hst-Az-- Favorites won last nine Demuth games.
-- Col-SD-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Gorman games.

-- Tex-LA-- 18 of 19 Emmel games this season went over the total.
-- Balt-Cle-- Under is 8-3-1 in last twelve Carapazza games.
-- Chi-Det-- Five of last seven Cousins games stayed under total.
-- Min-KC-- Underdogs are 10-6 in last sixteen Cooper games.
-- Tor-Bos-- Favorites won seven of last eight Drake games.
-- Sea-TB-- Over is 9-5 in last fourteen TBarrett games.
-- NY-A's-- Favorites won five of last six Knight games.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

07/21/12 16-*13-*1 55.17% +*1225 Detail
07/20/12 17-*13-*0 56.67% +*2030 Detail
07/19/12 12-*8-*0 60.00% +*1690 Detail
07/18/12 7-*7-*3 50.00% +*5 Detail
07/17/12 10-*14-*1 41.67% -*2455 Detail
07/16/12 8-*15-*1 34.78% -*4135 Detail
07/15/12 14-*14-*0 50.00% -*135 Detail
07/14/12 17-*13-*0 56.67% +*1590 Detail
07/13/12 15-*13-*2 53.57% +*455 Detail
07/08/12 18-*11-*1 62.07% +*3810 Detail
07/07/12 16-*13-*1 55.17% +*1155 Detail
07/06/12 17-*13-*0 56.67% +*1390 Detail
07/05/12 5-*15-*0 25.00% -*6175 Detail
07/04/12 16-*12-*0 57.14% +*2300 Detail
07/03/12 12-*18-*0 40.00% -*3155 Detail
07/02/12 13-*11-*0 54.17% +*305 Detail
07/01/12 13-*15-*1 46.43% -*860 Detail

Totals 226-*218-*11 50.90% -*960

MLB

Sunday, July 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chi. White Sox - 1:05 PM ET Chi. White Sox +108 500
Detroit - Under 10 500

LA Dodgers - 1:10 PM ET LA Dodgers +144 500
NY Mets - Under 8 500

Milwaukee - 1:10 PM ET Milwaukee +127 500
Cincinnati - Under 7.5 500

Toronto - 1:35 PM ET Toronto +160 500
Boston - Under 9.5 500

Atlanta - 1:35 PM ET Atlanta +116 500
Washington - Over 8.5 500

Miami - 1:35 PM ET Pittsburgh -120 500
Pittsburgh - Under 8 500

San Francisco - 1:35 PM ET San Francisco +136 500
Philadelphia - Under 9 500

Seattle - 1:40 PM ET Tampa Bay -180 500
Tampa Bay - Under 8 500

Minnesota - 2:10 PM ET Kansas City -137 500
Kansas City - Over 10.5 500

Chi. Cubs - 2:15 PM ET Chi. Cubs +187 500
St. Louis - Over 8.5 500

Baltimore - 3:05 PM ET Cleveland -132 500
Cleveland - Under 9.5 500

NY Yankees - 4:05 PM ET Oakland +171 500
Oakland - Under 7.5 500

Colorado - 4:05 PM ET San Diego -102 500
San Diego - Under 7.5 500

Houston - 4:10 PM ET Houston +198 500
Arizona - Over 9.5 500

Texas - 8:00 PM ET LA Angels -102 500
LA Angels - Over 8 500

[flashypants]

Gl pal