The Bum's Preview of CFB Teams 2012 !

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SEC Notes

August 21, 2012

--Kentucky head coach Joker Phillips has named sophomore Maxwell Smith as the team’s starting quarterback. Smith played in eight games as a true freshman, starting in three of those contests. He completed 84-of-153 passes (54.9%) for 819 yards with a 4/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Smith beat out senior Morgan Newton, who missed the spring with a shoulder injury. The Wildcats open the year on Sept. 2 at Louisville as 14-point underdogs.

--The QB situations at Auburn and Florida are still unresolved. It’s a two-man battle in Gainesville between fellow true sophomores Jeff Driskel and Jacoby Brissett. Driskel has been held out of contact the last week due to an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. The injury isn’t serious but you would think it has probably given Brissett the slight edge for now. Both QBs were extremely ineffective when forced into action last year due to injuries to John Brantley. The Gators open Sept. 1 vs. Bowling Green as 29-point home favorites.

--Gene Chizik hasn’t made up his mind between junior Clint Moseley and sophomore Kiehl Frazier. Moseley got more playing time in 2011, connecting on 61.1 percent of his passes for 800 yards with a 5/3 TD-INT ratio. Frazier rushed for more than 300 yards and three TDs, but he completed just 5-of-12 passes for 34 yards without a score and two interceptions. Auburn will open against Clemson as three-point underdogs (minus-115 price on AU) at the Ga. Dome. Clemson star WR Sammy Watkins is suspended and will not dress in Atlanta.

--Arkansas QB Tyler Wilson completed 22-of-37 passes for 252 yards and three TDs at Saturday’s scrimmage. Cobi Hamilton, who is poised for a breakout campaign following the departures of Greg Childs, Joe Adams and Jarius Wright, caught 11 balls for 165 yards and a pair of TDs.

--South Carolina starting senior CB Akeem Auguste is out indefinitely (at least 4-5 weeks) with a torn muscle in his thigh suffered in Saturday’s scrimmage. Also, redshirt RB Shon Carson has sustained another injury that could be a season-ender. Fortunately for the Gamecocks, they have Marcus Lattimore back at 100 percent along with Kenny Miles and Brandon Wilds, both of whom performed extremely well in Lattimore’s absence last season. The ‘Cocks are currently seven-point favorites for next Thursday’s game at Vanderbilt.

--After playing QB last season and WR in the spring, Ole Miss senior Randall Mackey has settled at the running back position behind Jeff Scott. Mackey has plenty of speed and playmaking ability for new head coach Hugh Freeze.

--Don’t be surprised if Alabama freshman RB T.J. Yeldon gets touches galore in the season opener vs. Michigan at Cowboys Stadium. The Crimson Tide is favored by 12 ½ against the Wolverines. The total is 42 ½ at a few offshore books and I like it to go ‘over’ if that total remains in the low 40s.

--Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin has named redshirt freshman Johnny Manziel as his starting QB for the squad’s opener next Thursday against La. Tech in Shreveport. The Aggies are 7 ½-point favorites against the Bulldogs.

--Tennessee is struggling with injuries at the TE position. Senior starter Mychal Rivera, who had 29 receptions for 344 yards and one TD last year, has missed most of camp with a knee injury. The injury is not considered serious and he’s ‘probable’ to start next Friday at the Ga. Dome vs. N.C. St. However, his back-up Cameron Clear has been dismissed from the team and Brendan Down is most likely out for the year (knee). The Vols are four-point favorites vs. the Wolfpack.

--UF also has issues at tight end. Rising sophomore A.C. Leonard left the program about a month ago and then Colin Thompson went down with a foot injury earlier this week. Thompson is expected to have surgery Wednesday and miss at least eight weeks. Jordan Reed is the starter but has been hobbled this week with a twisted knee.

--The nation’s No. 1 prep recruit in the 2012 class, Missouri WR Dorial Green-Beckham, continues to turn heads in Columbia. Also, James Franklin’s surgically-repaired shoulder has looked just fine. On the flip side, the Tigers are struggling with injuries on the offensive line. Nevertheless, they have a great chance at shaking up the SEC East race in their league debut against Georgia on Sept. 8 due to a number of issues in Athens. (see below)

--Georgia is going to be without four suspended starters on defense for its opener against Buffalo and its Week 2 trip to Missouri. All-American safety Baccari Rambo is suspended for four games, while LB Alec Ogletree, LB Chase Vasser and CB Sanders Commings will miss UGA’s first two contests. The trio of Ogletree, Rambo and Commings combined for more than 160 tackles, four sacks, 8 ½ tackles for losses, 22 passes broken up, nine interceptions and eight QB hurries last year. Also, 2011 leading rusher Isaiah Crowell has been dismissed from the team and starting OT Kolston Houston remains in NCAA limbo.

--Sportsbook.ag is currently showing Alabama and LSU with 5/1 and 6/1 odds, respectively, to win the BCS Championship Game. LSU was at plus-350 or 4/1 at most spots before the dismissal of Tyrann Mathieu. Not only has LSU's future odds been adjusted, but it has also seen its numbers change for Games of the Year. For instance, the Tigers are now just three-point favorites at Florida and two-point 'chalk' at Arkansas.

--Sportsbook.ag is currently showing these future numbers to win the SEC:
Alabama +160 (risk $100 to win $160)
LSU +225
Georgia +450
Florida +600 (6/1)
Arkansas 10/1
South Carolina 12/1
Tennessee 25/1
Missouri 60/1
Texas A&M 75/1
Mississippi St. 75/1
Auburn 75/1
Vanderbilt 100/1
Kentucky 100/1
Ole Miss 100/1

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Grading the coaching hires

August 22, 2012


With Week 1 just a week away, it’s time to grade the new head-coaching hires across the country. We do so in no particular order…

Urban Meyer: (Ohio State) – (By the way, I called this one the day Meyer resigned for a second time at Florida. Granted, I was off by a year but we didn't know about Jim Tressel's woes at the time.) When it comes to recruiting and motivating, Urban Meyer is as good as any coach in America, including Nick Saban. However, in his insatiable drive to build a dynasty at Florida, Meyer lost his way, his health and nearly his family. Was one season away enough to recharge the batteries? Will the drive to bring the Buckeyes back from NCAA sanctions eat him up like the grind of the SEC did? Only time will tell. But there’s no doubt that Ohio St. made a great choice. I’m not sure how the Bucks will fare this year but I expect them to be perennial national-title contenders starting in 2014, possibly 2013. Grading the hire: A+

Kevin Sumlin: (Texas A&M) - I’ve seen many new head coaches get eaten up by the bright lights and glare of SEC Media Days. Sumlin handled the press with poise, composure and intellect in Birmingham. How does that translate to success on Saturdays? I have no clue, but I was impressed nonetheless. Sumlin engineered a high-octane passing attack at Houston, helping the Cougars to a 13-1 record last year and a 10-4 mark in 2009. He’ll be breaking in a new quarterback this fall in College Station and the Aggies will be entering a brutal league, so Sumlin will get high marks if he can get A&M to a bowl game. With prep players in Texas now able to stay home and play in the SEC, the Aggies should thrive on the recruiting trail. Before his first snap as Texas A&M’s head coach, Sumlin looks like the right man to lead this program to success in the future. Grading the hire: B+

Hugh Freeze: His rise to stardom has been rapid, going from a high school coach in 2004 to the head man at an SEC school less than a decade later. Freeze was Ed Orgeron’s recruiting coordinator at Ole Miss from 2005-2007 when the school landed future NFL players like Michael Oher, Greg Hardy, Peria Jerry, Mike Wallace and Dexter McCluster. Freeze became just the 14th FBS coach to win 10 games in his first season last year at Arkansas St. He has a Herculean task in Oxford and it will certainly take time, but the 42-year-old Freeze, who is a native Mississippian, appears to be a good fit with the Rebels. Grading the hire: B

Tim Beckman: The former Toledo coach inherits a decent situation with Illinois bringing back seven starters on each side of the ball. I won’t pretend as if I watched all 13 of the Rockets’ games last year, but I saw enough to sour on this hire. Beckman inexplicably left all three timeouts in his pocket of a 63-60 home loss to No. Illinois when the Huskies were bleeding the clock in the final minute of the game-winning drive. Also, we saw Beckman and his staff flock to State College like vultures in a feeding frenzy. (Our stance on ‘recruiting’ PSU players is that it’s only ok if they reach out to you.) Perhaps Beckman will change my mind on him in time, but I’m not a fan for now. Grading the hire: D

Ellis Johnson: (Southern Miss) - Talk about winning over the home folks at the intro presser! Question: Coach Johnson, do you have the type of energy needed at the age of 60 to take on this job? Answer: “My energy level is great. My wife hasn’t complained.” Johnson has been one of the main reasons for South Carolina’s success the last four years, running defenses that have produced NFL players galore. This is Johnson’s third run as a head coach after tours at Gardner-Webb and The Citadel. He tabbed veteran HC Tommy West as his d-coordinator and former Louisiana HC Ricky Bustler to run the offense. Grading the hire: B

Bill O’Brien: (Penn State) – The former Patriots offensive coordinator knew he was walking into a tough situation, but there’s no way he had any clue it would be this bad. And there’s no way O’Brien takes the job if he thought the penalties would be anywhere in the neighborhood of four years of no postseason and crippling scholarship reductions. Nevertheless, that’s where the Nittany Lions are today and you have to commend the manner in which O’Brien has gone about his business since the unprecedented sanctions were announced. My thinking is that he may stick it out if he can keep this solid 2013 recruiting class together. But if he doesn’t, this space certainly won’t judge him negatively. Obviously, he faces more challenges than any HC in America over the next 4-5 years. Grading the hire: B+

Larry Fedora: I think the former So. Miss head coach is an ideal fit in Chapel Hill. His pedigree as an offensive coordinator is extremely impressive, leading Florida to the SEC’s top offense when Chris Leak was a sophomore in 2004. Then he got high marks for his work at Oklahoma St. under Mike Gundy before taking the job in Hattiesburg. In his first taste of a head-coaching gig, Fedora led the Golden Eagles to four consecutive bowl games and one Conference USA title. Fedora should have a solid team starting this year. Grading the hire: A-

Bob Davie: (New Mexico) – I guess they’re trying to compete for the worst back-to-back hires in NCAA history. Mike Locksley had quite a run in Albuquerque, going 1-11 twice before getting fired while winless in 2011. Along the way, Locksley was accused of sexually harassing a secretary and assaulting an assistant coach. The final straw was giving the keys to his SUV to a recruit who got into a wreck and was arrested for DWI. Now the Lobos turn to Davie, who had a disastrous four-year tenure at Notre Dame before spending a decade in the TV booth chafin’ football fans every Saturday. This should be comical but let’s hope Davie sticks around at least four years to prevent him from getting another broadcasting job. Grading the hire: F

Todd Graham (Arizona St.) – Introducing the new version of Bobby Petrino, Todd Graham, who held three jobs from January of 2011 to January of 2012. He’s now bolted on Rice and Pitt after just one year on the job. Therefore, Graham better have success at ASU, which was poised to hire June Jones before that deal fell apart at the last minute. Graham has his work cut out for him in Tempe, but you can win at this program. He’s gone the JUCO route to try to fix things quick. Grading the hire: C

Rich Rodriguez (Arizona) – R-Rod enjoyed nothing but success in offensive-coordinator roles at Tulane and Clemson under Tommy Bowden before accepting his dream job at West Virginia. He had the Mountaineers one game away from playing for the national title before losing to Pitt at home as 28 ½-point favorites in 2007. Then Rodriguez made a horrible decision. One year after turning down the Alabama job, he accepted the gig at Michigan, which was a terrible fit from the beginning. R-Rod tried to change everything at the history-rich program and failed miserably. In three years, the Wolverines limped to an atrocious 15-22 record before sending R-Rod packing via pink slip. He has taken a year off and now moves West to Arizona to replace Mike Stoops. Will his spread offense turn magical again in Tucson, or will the West Va. native with mountain roots flame out in the desert? Grading the hire: B

Charlie Weis (Kansas) – The former Notre Dame head coach gets another shot at a school that’s had zero success over the last several decades other than a nice run under Mark Mangino. Although injuries to senior QB John Brantley were the crust of Florida’s offensive struggles last year, you couldn’t help but slightly point a finger at Weis for such anemic production. Unless he changes my mind at KU, I’ve decided that Weis is an excellent o-coordinator but a mediocre head coach. Grading the hire: D+

Norm Chow (Hawaii) – When Chow was running high-flying offenses at USC early in Pete Carroll’s dynastic roll, it seemed he was poised to get a head-coaching job every off-season. Yet no offers came and then it appeared as if Chow’s late career was going to consist of bouncing around from one job to the next. Finally, the Honolulu-born Chow has his first head-coaching job after 39 years as an assistant in college and the NFL. Things will be tougher for the Warriors moving into the Mountain West this year, but I think they have a solid coach for the next half-dozen years. Grading the hire: B

Tony Levine: (Houston) – Kevin Sumlin won 36 games in four years at Houston despite losing his top two QBs in a 5-7 campaign in 2010. Therefore, Levine has big shoes to fill and the school’s all-time leading passer (Case Keenum) to replace. He led the Cougars to a 30-14 win over Penn St. at the TicketCity Bowl. Levine’s background is as a special-teams coordinator in the NFL and college ranks. He’s been at Houston since 2008 and was the assistant HC the last two seasons. Levine will benefit from that injury-plagued 2010 campaign because third-year sophomore QB David Piland, who redshirted upon Keenum’s return last season, is back after throwing 24 TD passes as a true freshman. Grading the hire: C

Kyle Flood (Rutgers) – First of all, let’s state with authority that RU should hurry up and build a statue in honor of Greg Schiano, who turned this program from the nation’s worst to a perennial Big East contender that went to six bowl games the last seven years. Flood has a monumental task replacing Schiano, who spent 11 years with the Scarlet Knights before taking the Tampa Bay Buccaneers job. Flood has been at RU since 2007, serving as co-offensive coordinator in 2009 and 2010. His first team has a chance to win the league and possibly improve on last season’s 9-win total. From a gambling standpoint, look to back Rutgers as a double-digit road underdog at Arkansas on Sept. 22 IF – and only IF – the Razorbacks upset Alabama the week before to make this a classic letdown spot for the Hogs. Grading the hire: C+

Paul Chryst: (Pittsburgh) – The former Wisconsin o-coordinator has been directing dynamite offenses at Camp Randall since 2005. Most of those units were based on a power running game with talented backs working behind mammoth offensive lines. However, Chryst showed us what he could do through the air with a QB he trusted (Russell Wilson) last year. He inherits a fragile group of players at Pitt that have had five different head coaches in the last 15 games. Dave Wannstedt and Mike Haywood got fired, Todd Graham bolted after a year, while Phil Bennett and Keith Patterson coached one bowl game apiece in interim roles. With all that said, the Panthers have a better-than-decent chance in the Big East this year, especially if RB Ray Graham can return to 100 percent after tearing his ACL in late October. Grading the hire: B+

Other notable new head coaches include Gus Malzahn (Arkansas St.), Terry Bowden (Akron), Jim McElwain (Colorado St.) and Garrick McGee (UAB).

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Georgia St. head coach Bill Curry, who will turn 70 in October, has announced that he’ll retire at the end of the 2012 season. Curry previously coached at Kentucky, Alabama and Ga. Tech.

--Because of their ties to the Arkansas program, Malzahn and McGee could be one-and-doners at their new schools if the Hogs come calling following the 2012 campaign.

--Guess who else is on Akron’s campus these days besides Bowden, the former coach at Auburn? Well, there’s fundraiser Jim Tressel of Ohio St. fame and Bowden’s top assistant, Chuck Amato, the former HC at N.C. St. who worked under Terry’s Daddy for so many years at FSU.

--Trivia: I noted how Keenum is the all-time leading passer at Houston now. There are several quality candidates for second and third in passing for the Cougars. Who are they? Answer: 2nd: Kevin Kolb; 3rd: David Klingler. Since Phil Steele’s magazine only goes three-deep with this stat, we’re left to assume that Andre Ware is fourth.

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CFB | UCF at AKRON
Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (UCF) with 8 offensive starters returning
84-43 over the last 10 seasons. ( 66.1% | 36.7 units )
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CFB | FLA INTERNATIONAL at DUKE
Play On - A home team vs. the money line (DUKE) poor defense from last season - allowed 400 or more total yards/game, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB, in the first month of the season
42-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 70.0% | 0.0 units )
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CFB | MIAMI OHIO at OHIO ST
Play On - Home favorites of 12 to 17.5 vs. the first half line (OHIO ST) with an experienced QB returning as starter
130-72 over the last 5 seasons. ( 64.4% | 50.8 units )

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Florida International Tagged To Win Sun Belt

The Sun Belt, like most FBS football conferences, has undergone some changeover in the last 12 months. But unlike most other upper-level leagues, the Belt remains relatively content with its lot on the lower end of the gridiron food chain.

Indeed, parameters are different for Sun Belt football programs, many of which are content with the league blueprint to provide opposition for bigger-name schools in non-conference play. Which also helps pad the coffers of Belt schools which benefit from the big paydays associated with road trips to various SEC, ACC, and Big XII locales. Once in a blue moon, a Sun Belt rep hosts one of these intersectionals, but for the most part the schools have accepted their position at the bottom end of the FBS totem pole.

Still, some aspire to greater heights in the college football world. A couple of them, not coincidentally representing major television markets, are primed for a move into Conference USA next season; North Texas (Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex) and Florida International (Miami) will be competing in the Belt for the last time this school year. But the conference moved quickly to replace the Mean Green and Golden Panthers, as South Alabama, a longtime hoops staple but now fielding a football program as well, joins the pigskin membership this season, and Texas State and Georgia State have already been enlisted for the 2013 campaign. UT-Arlington, whose football program has been dormant for years but is scheduled to be revived soon, also joins next year for non-gridiron sports.

Regional sources believe some further conference switching remains likely, with Florida Atlantic clamoring for admission into the Big East, plus Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky reportedly next in the queue for invitations from Conference USA should it have to do any more replacing of its own departing league members. Meanwhile, one-time Sun Belt member New Mexico State, looking for a conference home due to the disintegration of the WAC, remains a possibility for future membership. Stay tuned for further developments.

In the meantime, for one last season, the Belt has a similar look to the one it has had for the past several years (new football member South Alabama is ineligible for the conference title as it completes its “transition” to the FBS level this fall). Teams also have two guaranteed bowl slots at the New Orleans Bowl and GoDaddy.com Bowl in Mobile, although the league could again provide extra postseason participants as it did a year ago when three entries participated in bowls.

The Sun Belt also has a new commissioner in Karl Benson, longtime supremo of the WAC who accepted his new assignment in March.

As usual, expect several teams to absorb their lumps in non-conference play; trips to the likes of Oregon, Nebraska, Arkansas, Auburn, Oklahoma State, Tennessee, Alabama (twice!), LSU, Kansas State, Houston, Georgia Tech, Mississippi State (twice!), Georgia and NC State await members this fall. Compared to just a few “major” foes (Mississippi State at Troy on September 15, and Baylor at UL-Monroe on September 22, plus Southern Miss at Western Kentucky that same September 22).

Following is a quick preview of each team in predicted order of finish, along with conference win odds and a subsequent technical/pointspread trend update for each team.

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (9/4 to win Sun Belt)
In Sun Belt terms, FIU certainly appears loaded, with a boatload of returnees back from last year's Beef O'Brady's Bowl entry, including every defensive starter from that postseason date vs. Marshall. If soph QB Justin Medlock can replace departed starter Wesley Carroll as seamlessly as head coach Mario Cristobal believes, and if a big-play wideout dimension (watch senior Wayne Times) surfaces in the wake of big-play T.Y. Hilton's graduation, the Golden Panthers definitely look like the team to beat.

Now, whether FIU can hold on to Cristobal after another expected bowl visit remains to be seen, as the coach is probably going to have a chance to say "no" again to interested suitors (as he did to Rutgers last winter) before the Golden Panthers make their move into CUSA next year. It's not a stretch to assume that one of these times, Cristobal is eventually going to say "yes" to one of these offers. Meanwhile, they'll enjoy the good times while they can at FIU.

ARKANSAS STATE (7/2)
After head coach Hugh Freeze left for Ole Miss prior to the GoDaddy.com Bowl vs. Northern Illinois, Ark State reaffirmed its new and more-serious commitment to the football side, illustrated by the hiring of Gus Malzahn, the decorated offensive coordinator at Auburn and former legendary high school coach in the state. Although we hope that AD Dean Lee doesn't think he's going to keep Malzahn in the fold forever; right now, Red Wolves fans would be thrilled to get three years out of Gus, who is already on a short list of schools (such as Tennessee and Arkansas) likely to make coaching moves in the near future.

Meanwhile, if Arkansas State doesn't get beaten up too badly in early dates at Oregon and Nebraska, this fall could be as fun as the last one in Jonesboro as long as do-everything QB Ryan Aplin stays healthy and new defensive coordinator John Thompson can scheme something out of the rebuilt stop unit. The home slate in particular holds room for encouragement, with Ark State expected to be favored in all six games at ASU Stadium in Jonesboro.

UL-LAFAYETTE (9/2)
Give Louisiana-Lafayette credit for realizing the prize it has in head coach Mark Hudspeth and doing its best to keep him in the fold in Lafayette for the long haul. We suspect that might be difficult if Hudspeth (who arrived from the Mississippi State staff and figures to be on a short list of any regional coaching openings in the near future) continues to post hard-to-ignore results such as last season when the Ragin’ Cajuns won the New Orleans Bowl in exciting fashion. More of the same could be on tap this fall with practically all of the offense (including smooth-operating southpaw spread QB Blaine Gautier) back in tow and several transfers on defense giving hints in spring that they could be difference-makers.

Aside from payday trips to Oklahoma State (which also hosted the Ragin' Cajuns last year, when Lafayette was somewhat respectable in a 61-34 defeat) and Florida, Louisiana could be favored in every other game this fall. A Sun Belt title and another bowl trip are hardly out of the question for the Ragin' Cajuns and their supporters, who are best advised to enjoy the presence of Hudspeth while they can.

TROY (5/1)
Usually, they don’t pussyfoot around at the school on George Wallace Drive in southeastern Alabama, which is why Troy's downturn to 3-9 last fall was one of the big storylines in the Sun Belt. But most regional observers suggest a quick recovery could be in the cards, especially with holdover QB Corey Robinson (7137 yards passing and 49 TD passes the past two years) likely to be winging the ball all over the lot and a squadron of established receivers ready to distort enemy secondaries. A healthier OL should also mean an improved infantry, which is a necessity for Troy to get back into the Belt title picture.

Assuming the offense hits on all cylinders (as most regional insiders expect), it will be up to the "D" to play more like most Larry Blakeney's past punishing platoons than last year's overrun stop unit; the switch to the 3-4 looks a worthwhile gamble. All key Sun Belt showdowns (Louisiana, Western Kentucky, Florida International and Arkansas State) are also at home this fall.

UL-MONROE (7/1)
We are used to ULM teams making very little headway each autumn. But at least the Warhawks seem to have a puncher’s chance in 2012 with their experienced offense led by savvy QB Kolton Browning. And if juco LB Austin Moss is as good as advertised, the Warhawk "D" might not regress, either, from a very un-Belt-like 21st ranking in national total defense stats (and an impressive 8th in rushing defense) last fall. Seven starters return on the platoon.

As long as ULM isn't embarrassed, third-year head coach Todd Berry will be excused if he can't win in a rugged non-league slate (save perhaps for a winnable trip to Tulane), but this is the year for the Warhawks to make their move in Belt play...especially if Berry wants to solidify his status as the leader of the program.

WESTERN KENTUCKY (10/1)
The Belt’s surprise package last fall, WKU is a program on the upswing after narrowly missing the conference crown last season and finishing with a 7-5 record, unlucky not to get a call from a bowl game. And, as mentioned, there is talk in the region that Conference USA might be targeting the Hilltoppers and Middle Tennessee as its next possible recruits.

Speaking of targeting, we expect some high-profile suitors to be very interested in head coach Willie Taggart if WKU can overachieve once again this fall. Which might not be as easy for the Tops now that star RB Bobby Rainey has graduated, and the team unlikely to sneak up on anybody as it might have done a year ago. Not to mention a rugged non-conference gauntlet to be run in September that could leave WKU battered and bruised. Still, most believe the defense will be stout, so the key will likely be the ability of QB Kawaun Jakes to take a more-featured role in the offense without RB Bobby Rainey as a potent diversion. If Jakes succeeds, the Hilltoppers could go "bowling" for the first time as an FBS member; if he doesn't, WKU probably falls short.

NORTH TEXAS (12/1)
The Mean Green looks to be on the ascent under vet head coach Dan McCarney, who endured an offseason scare when suffering a mild stroke but is back in the saddle as UNT looks to pick up where it left off last fall when winning three of its last five to finish at 5-7, its best record since 2004.

For its last Sun Belt season before moving to CUSA, the Mean Green might be poised to forge a breakthrough this fall if the offense can compensate for the loss of decorated RB Lance Dunbar, capable senior QB Derek Thompson can stay relatively healthy, and the various newcomers (including accomplished defensive coordinator John Skladany, recently at UCF and McCarney’s defensive coach at Iowa State) can make a positive impact with the stop unit, which will in particular be looking at various newcomers and transfers to fill gaps in a rebuilt secondary.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (14/1)
Last season was a 2-10 disaster in Murfreesboro, causing speculation that head coach Rick Stockstill could be in trouble unless MTSU can forge a quick turnaround this fall. For the moment, we're inclined to give Stockstill the benefit of the doubt, as the combination of injuries and uncharacteristic internal discord (such as offensive coordinator Willie Simmons' midseason departure) might simply have been the rare, perfect negative storm a year ago in Murfreesboro.

Stockstill has a chance to rehabilitate this fall, especially with a much easier early slate, with McNeese State, Florida Atlantic and Memphis out of the chute as opposed to bowl-bound Purdue and Georgia Tech a year ago. But mistake-prone junior QB Logan Kilgore must display more consistency when piloting the Blue Raider spread, new receivers must emerge, and the “O” needs to get more touches for explosive RB Benny Cunningham. Mostly, however, it will require real upgrades from new defensive coordinator Tyrone Nix and the MTSU "D" that collapsed a year ago for the Murfreesboro bunch to get back into the minor bowl discussion.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC (20/1)
FAU waited a year or two longer than it should before allowing the Howard Schnellenberger regime to extinguish, as the Owls took several steps backwards as they acquiesced to the program’s patriarch and allowed him to coach at least one season in the shiny new on-campus stadium, which finally opened last fall. Thus, FAU enters a new era under first-year head coach Carl Pelini (hired off of brother Bo’s Nebraska staff) off of a 1-11 nightmare campaign a year ago.

It would be hard for Pelini's first FAU team to be worse than Schnellenberger's final one, the latter perhaps the nation's most impotent squad last fall. Still, we're a bit skeptical if the revamping of the offensive and defensive platoons by Pelini is going to result in much, if any, upgrade; such strategic changes are customary after things go as pear-shaped as they did for the Owls last fall. We still don't know if Pelini has a proper QB to run his new-look spread; holdover Graham Wilbert, who tossed only seven TDs vs. 15 picks last fall, is an unreliable trigger-man. And if the offense continues to sputter after ranking last nationally a year ago (a mere 248 ypg) , meaningful upgrades from a year ago will prove elusive. We're not expecting much in Boca Raton.

SOUTH ALABAMA (ineligible for league title)
Mobile-based USA has made fast progress the past few years as it has ramped-up to FBS status in short order under Joey Jones, a former WR for Bear Bryant and Alabama who has won 23 of 27 games the past three seasons in Mobile. Last year, the Jags got a taste of upper-level competition and were not embarrassed in losses at NC State and Kent State, nearly rallying from a 33-point deficit to steal the latter.

This fall, Jones welcomes back nine starters on defense, but more questions exist on offense this fall as USA transitions from a power-based run offense to a full-throttle, no-huddle spread similar (in design, at least) to Oklahoma State and Southern Miss versions, the latter where new offensive coordinator Robert Matthews worked as an assistant last fall. Now we need to see if soph QB C.J. Bennett, mistake-prone as a frosh when tossing 17 interceptions, is up to the task of commanding the new-look offense. Regional sources, however, believe the Jags have enough personnel and coaching to avoid embarrassment in their Sun belt gridiron debut this fall.

TEAM POINTSPREAD TREND NOTES

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL: Note the rare Sun Belt defensive expertise of Cristobal's FIU has resulted in a 17-9 'under' mark the past two seasons. The Golden Panthers are also 7-3 as an underdog since 2010.

ARKANSAS STATE: New coach Gus Malzahn has a tough act to follow after predecessor Hugh Freeze's team recorded a 10-2 regular-season mark vs. the line (same as the straight-up record) a year ago.

UL-LAFAYETTE: The Ragin’ Cajuns have been a pointspread force lately, recording a 9-4 spread mark under first-year head coach Mark Hudspeth a year ago, and 13-5 vs. the line in their last 18 on the board dating to the middle of Ricky Bustle’s final season as coach in 2010. Also note nine straight covers as an underdog dating to late in the 2010 campaign.

TROY: Spread-wise, Troy began to slip before last season’s disappointment, as the Trojans had ceased to become a well-kept secret before a year ago. Which partially explains the 8-17 mark vs. the number the past two seasons.

UL-MONROE: The Warhawks have mostly held their own the past couple of years against the number under Berry (6-6 vs. the spread each of the past two seasons), and have offered pretty good value on the Sun Belt road, where they’ve covered five of seven chances.

WESTERN KENTUCKY: The best-kept secret in college football last fall was WKU, as the Tops covered their last nine games of the 2011 campaign!

MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE: The Blue Raiders have experienced a downturn the past couple of seasons, as Rick Stockstill's MTSU has covered covering only 7-of-25 chances on the board since 2010 after mostly positive spread performances in previous years. The Blue Raiders failed to cover all six of their games in Murfreesboro last fall and are just 2-10 vs. the line at home since 2010 after recording a noteworthy 10-5 mark against the number at Jonny Floyd Stadium between 2007-09. With the recent defensive downturn, the Blue Raiders have also exhibited hard-to-ignore 'over' trends lately (13-2 their last 15 since late in the 2010 campaign).

FLORIDA ATLANTIC: Lots of Las Vegas sports book patrons are sad to see Schnellenberger retire; the Owls were among the biggest go-against teams in the country the past few years, as Schnellenberger’s last two teams were each 3-9 against the number. Since the 2009 season, FAU's overall spread mark of 10-26 is one of the nation's worst. The Owls are also just 6-18 vs. the points since 2005 away from home vs. non-Sun Belt foes.