Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 07-21-2012, 05:23 PM

Early Line Moves Favor Vols At Golden Nugget

The Golden Nugget in Las Vegas released early lines on 111 College Football Games of the Year on June 11, and bettors responded by wagering enough money to move 47 of them (42 percent). The Ohio State Buckeyes lead the way so far with eight max bets that moved the line on five of their games coming off a disappointing season and with a new head coach on board in Urban Meyer.

Three of those five line moves in Ohio State’s favor were two points or more, including the Big Ten rivalry game on November 24 against the Michigan Wolverines, who went from 3-point favorites to a pick ’em on the road.

The Buckeyes are looking to turn things around under Meyer following a rare losing season in 2011. Meyer sat out last year after winning two national titles with the Florida Gators.

The other team that has seen major betting action in their favor is the Tennessee Volunteers, who are still underdogs in all four of their games that have seen line moves. Three of the games moved one point with Tennessee’s home game against the Alabama Crimson Tide showing the biggest change, going from +17 to +14½ in the SEC showdown on October 20.

The defending national champion Crimson Tide have seen bettors fade them in three Games of the Year, including their battle with the Vols. The Tide have also been bet down in their season opener against the Wolverines at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington on September 1, going from -12 to -10.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are another popular team bettors are fading in the Games of the Year, even though they are still big favorites in two of the three that have seen line moves. The Irish seem to be a bit overrated heading into the season and have gone from -10 to -7½ in their October 20 home matchup with the BYU Cougars while seeing 1-point moves in the other two games.

A couple other college football games have seen the favorite turn into the underdog following early betting. The Florida Gators opened as 1-point road underdogs against the Texas A&M Aggies on September 8, but are now favored at -2½. Florida State had a similar move for the Seminoles' ACC clash with the Virginia Tech Hokies on November 8, going from +1 to -2 in what could be an early preview of the conference title game.

Check out all 111 of the early line releases for the Golden Nugget's NCAA Football Games of the Year by following this link. Below is a list updating those that have seen movement so far.

Friday, August 31
Boise State at Michigan State (-6½ to -7½)

Saturday, September 1
Michigan vs. Alabama (-12 to -10) at Arlington

Thursday, September 6
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (-5 to -3)

Saturday, September 8
Miami at Kansas State (-7 to -8)
Washington at LSU (-21 to -22½)
Georgia (-3 to -4) at Missouri
Florida at Texas A&M (-1 to +2½)

Saturday, September 15
Notre Dame at Michigan State (-3 to -4)
USC (-10 to -9) at Stanford
Florida (-5 to -4) at Tennessee

Saturday, September 22
Clemson at Florida State (-8 to -9)

Saturday, September 29
Tennessee at Georgia (-13½ to -12½)
Ohio State at Michigan State (-4½ to -2½)
Texas at Oklahoma State (-3½ to -2)
Arkansas (-2½ to -3½) at Texas A&M

Saturday, October 6
LSU (-7½ to -6½) at Florida
Nebraska at Ohio State (-2 to -3)
Georgia (-2½ to -3) at South Carolina
West Virginia at Texas (-4½ to -6½)

Saturday, October 13
Alabama (-14½ to -13½) at Missouri
Texas vs. Oklahoma (-6 to -5) at Dallas

Saturday, October 20
South Carolina at Florida (-4 to -5)
BYU at Notre Dame (-10 to -7½)
Alabama (-17 to -14½) at Tennessee
Kansas State at West Virginia (-7½ to -6½)

Saturday, October 27
USC (-14 to -15½) at Arizona
Michigan (-2 to -1) at Nebraska
Ohio State (-3 to -5½) at Penn State
Tennessee at South Carolina (-7½ to -6½)

Saturday, November 3
Missouri at Florida (-5½ to -6½)
Oklahoma State at Kansas State (-1 to +1)
TCU at West Virginia (-7 to -6)

Thursday, November 8
Florida State at Virginia Tech (-1 to +2)

Saturday, November 10
Georgia (-6 to -5) at Auburn
Notre Dame (-12 to -11) at Boston College
West Virginia at Oklahoma State (-6½ to -5½)
Arkansas (-3 to -2) at South Carolina

Saturday, November 17
Mississippi at LSU (-26½ to -27½)
Ohio State at Wisconsin (-7 to -6)

Friday, November 23
Washington at Washington State (-3 to -2)

Saturday, November 24
LSU (-3 to -4) at Arkansas
South Carolina at Clemson (-4 to -3)
Florida at Florida State (-7½ to -6½)
Michigan (-3 to Pick ’em) at Ohio State

Saturday, December 1
Texas (-3 to -4) at Kansas State
Oklahoma (-10 to -9) at TCU

Saturday, December 8
Army vs. Navy (-4½ to -3½) at Philadelphia

**StarDust Bum** · 07-21-2012, 05:24 PM

Stanford Cardinal Begin Life Sans Andrew Luck

Throughout the summer, we’ll be previewing select college football teams and conferences for the upcoming 2012 campaign. We’ll get into the latter in August.

For the moment, however, a quick look-ahead at what appear to be some of the more intriguing teams to watch this fall. Our first look is at the Stanford Cardinal.

Life after Andrew Luck begins this fall at Stanford. Consensus opinion around the college football world is that the Cardinal are due for a drop-off sans Luck. We don’t necessarily disagree, but we’re not convinced Stanford is about to fall off the college football map, either, after back-to-back BCS bowl appearances.

True, a special player such as Luck might appear only once in a generation. But it’s not as if Stanford football hasn’t had great QBs throughout the years, or had to replace several legendary signal-callers names in the past. Luck was hardly the first star QB to grace Palo Alto in his college days.

Coming immediately to mind is John Elway, but before making a connection between Stanford post-Elway and Stanford post-Luck, consider that the Cardinal finished 5-6 in Elway’s senior season of 1982. The rot had already set into the program under coach Paul Wiggin, who was dismissed after a 1-10 mark the following 1983 campaign. Instead, the post-Luck Stanford team still has much of the veteran core from last year’s 11-2 side.

A better Stanford analogy might exist from the early ‘70s, when the then-called Indians had a QB named Jim Plunkett on campus. All Plunkett did was lead a resurgence of Stanford football in the late ‘60s into 1970 under creative and colorful head coach John Ralston. Unlike Luck, however, Plunkett won the Heisman Trophy (in 1970), and his Stanford team won the Pac-8 and went on to upset Woody Hayes’ Ohio State, 27-17, in the Rose Bowl.

In the following year of 1971, much of the college football world was as dismissive of the Indians much as they are for the upcoming 2012 version of the Cardinal, reckoning, as current onlookers are similarly projecting post-Luck, that there would be no way Plunkett could be adequately replaced. Ralston, however, had by that time developed a solid program with a talented supporting cast around Plunkett and an underrated, big-play defense that simply ceded some of the spotlight to Plunkett in 1969 and ‘70, two big years on The Farm.

Ralston had an able backup QB during Plunkett’s later years in Don Bunce, who simply needed a chance to perform so he could shine. Much of Plunkett’s supporting cast – RBs Jackie Brown Hillary Shockley, & Reggie Sanderson, and WR Miles Moore – was still on hand in 1971, and Ralston’s improved recruiting pipeline introduced new components in ‘71 including dangerous WR John Winesberry and a highly-regarded crop of offensive linemen. Moreover, much of the Stanford “Thunder Chicken” defense from 1970 was still in the fold in ‘71, including linemen Pete Lazetich and Greg Sampson, LBs Jeff Siemon and Mike Simone plus DBs Benny Barnes and Charles McCloud.

The ‘71 Indians suffered a few upset defeats (much like the ‘70 squad) but rose to the occasion in Pac-8 road showdowns vs. Washington and Southern Cal, throttling each en route to comfortably defending the conference crown. To top things off, just as it did the previous year, Stanford pulled another major Rose Bowl upset, nipping an undefeated Michigan 13-12 on a last-second Rod Garcia field goal.

There might not be a direct link of analogies between the 1971 and 2012 teams, but we suggest it might be a lot closer to what eventually transpires this fall than the doomsday, post-Luck scenario in which some Stanford critics are trying to promote in the run-up to the fall.

Second-year Cardinal head coach David Shaw knew he had a tough act to follow in 2011 when promoted from offensive coordinator to succeed Jim Harbaugh, but Shaw hardly inherited a bare cupboard in Palo Alto, with Luck and many other key contributors still in the fold from the 12-1, Orange Bowl-winners the previous season.

Similarly, even minus Luck, Stanford is not entering 2012 wearing blindfolds. Indeed, if the QB situation can sort itself out, there’s no reason the Cardinal can’t continue to appear in the national rankings this fall.

Playing the Don Bunce ‘71 role this fall will be either soph Brett Nottingham or junior Josh Nunes, a pair of 6-foot-4 gunslingers who separated themselves from pack of five contenders in the spring. Each has thrown only a handful of passes in their respective college careers, but both are well-versed in the Cardinal’s pro-style, power-oriented attack with well-defined West Coast principles.

Nottingham, due to the fact he served as Luck’s official back-up last season and played in six games, is listed as the slight favorite to win the job, but Nunes (one of the gems of the 2009 recruiting class) impressed enough in spring for Shaw and offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton to wait until camp reconvenes later this summer to name their starter.

If it’s Nottingham, expect a QB who has the wheels to get out of the pocket and the sort of snap and accuracy on his short-and-intermediate routes that the coaching staff desires. Nunes, well-versed in the offense entering his fourth year in the program, has impressed with his poise.

There were other key offensive weapons besides Luck who moved to the NFL in last April’s draft such as linemen David DeCastro and Jonathan Martin,along with tight end Coby Fleener, each picked within the first two rounds. But expect the Stanford offense to again operate in a similar fashion, its pro-style looks augmented by a power running game designed to leverage the big bodies creating space up front.

The fall will prove a test for Stanford’s recent recruiting emphasis on top-notch blockers, some of whom are required to immediately step into the breach after the graduation of All-Americans DeCastro and Martin. Three starters still return on the forward wall, and Hamilton spent the spring shuffling some of the pieces in the OL puzzle. One of those, 302-lb. junior David Yankey, appeared to make a smooth transition to Martin’s abandoned yet crucial left tackle spot after starting 13 games as a red-shirt frosh last year at left guard.

Thus, expect the Stanford infantry to run effectively again after bulling for 210 ypg and better than five yards per carry in 2011. Senior RB Stepfan Taylor is an accomplished slasher who churned for 1330 YR a year ago, with another senior, Tyler Gaffney, still around for a nice change-of-pace in the more physical, Toby Gerhart-like mold after banging for 449 YR in 2011. Rugged 243-lb. fullback Ryan Hewitt is an effective H-back for the offense who doubles as a reliable receiving threat out of the backfield, reflected in his 34 catches a year ago.

Though Fleener has graduated, Shaw is still knee-deep in top-flight tight ends. A pair of mountainous juniors, 6-foot-6 Zach Ertz and 6-foot-8 Levine Toilolo, are both on an NFL career-trajectory and offer plenty of options Hamilton, including double TE sets as well as the ability of each to line up as wideouts, which might tempt Hamilton, as the Cardinal will be looking for new go-to sources at the WR spots after the graduation of last year’s starters Griff Whalen and Chris Owusu. Soph Ty Montgomery, who performed with plenty of flair when catching 24 passes as a frosh last fall, is expected to move seamlessly into a featured role. Whippet-like senior Drew Terrell is a smaller-sized option at 5-foot-11 and only 180 pounds, but could provide a spark as he does as a feared return man. He’ll get his chance to make his mark as a wideout in the fall.

Meanwhile, much like 1971's Thunder Chickens, the 2012 Stanford defense could similarly dominate. It’s not Lazetich, Sampson, Siemon and Simone, but six of seven starters return in the front seven of defensive coordinator Derek Mason’s robust 3-4 that ranked third nationally in rush defense last season, allowing a puny 3.01 ypc and 84 ypg.

The LB corps that could be really special, especially if playmaking ILB Shayne Skov is beyond last season’s knee injury that KO’d him for almost the entire season. Skov, who was held out of spring work, is expected to be ready for fall camp, although hanging over his head is a February DUI that likely causes suspension in the first game or two.

If there is a concern in the stop unit it’s in the secondary, where three starters must be replaced. As it was, the Cardinal was vulnerable to the highest tech pass attacks it faced last season, allowing at least three TD passes to Southern Cal, Oregon and Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl. Although a 95th ranking vs. the pass was a bit deceiving because foes couldn’t run on the Cardinal and were often playing a desperate game of catch-up a year ago, it was still the most-vulnerable piece of last year’s stop unit. But the strength of the front seven and its ability to generate a pass rush should again come in handy and allow the DBs to more concern themselves with pass-coverage chores.

The schedule has an altered look this season with the Big Game against Cal moved to a midseason slot (October 20 at Berkeley) after being a traditional season-ender for almost 90 years. A trip to Notre Dame precedes the Big Game, but otherwise the key games are well-spaced, including hosting revenge-minded Southern Cal on September 15 and traveling to Eugene to face Oregon on November 17. For all of Stanford’s success in 2010 & 2011, it has not been able to cope with the go-go Ducks, who have put 52-31 and 53-30 beatings upon the Cardinal in the last two seasons, Stanford’s only regular-season losses during that span.

Pointspread-wise, Andrew Luck’s presence was certainly a plus the last few years, as the Cardinal sported an eye-opening 27-12 spread mark the past three seasons (including 11-2 a year ago). But that mark is going to be hard to replicate this fall.

Summing up: Stanford is not likely to fall too far in 2012, as its emergence the past few seasons had other contributing elements besides Andrew Luck. Shaw, like predecessor Harbaugh, has a bit more leeway with special admits than past Stanford coaching regimes, and the talent base in the program has increased substantially thanks to some of these relaxed entrance requirements. With blue-chip talent now stockpiled in Palo Alto, Stanford might not backslide much at all this fall if either Nottingham or Nunes step up at QB. "Remember 1971" should be a battle cry heard all autumn long on The Farm.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-21-2012, 05:26 PM

Boise State In Limbo Regarding Conference Alignment

Throughout the summer, we’ll be previewing select college football teams and conferences for the upcoming 2012 campaign. We’ll get into the latter in August. For the moment, however, a quick look-ahead at what appear to be some of the more intriguing teams to watch this fall with a look at the Boise State Broncos.

For oldtimers, it has taken a while to get used to the idea of Boise State as a football powerhouse. But for more than a decade, the Broncos have been that and more. With a pair of BCS appearances since 2006 and a 50-3 straight-up mark over the past four years, Boise, not long ago a modest Big Sky rep, can be argued to have authored the most-incredible chapter of college football over the past half century.

But 2012 still rates as an important benchmark year for the Broncos program. Boise is entering a season without all-time college winning QB Kellen Moore for the first time since 2007. The Broncos are looking at massive rebuilding elsewhere as well, losing 13 starters from last year’s 12-1 side that was a mere one-point loss vs. TCU from qualifying for another BCS trip. The bulk of the recruiting bonanza that inked after that wild 43-42 OT win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl has finally graduated.

Also, in a not-unrelated development, the Broncos are preparing to leave the Mountain West just two seasons after bolting the WAC, slated to join the Big East for football-only duties next season.

But will Boise really jump?

The day June 30 is an important day in Bronco Nation, because that’s the deadline day for the school to officially withdraw from the Mountain West effective next year and avoid an extra $5 million in penalties from the Big East if Boise decides to leave thereafter. As of mid-June, BSU, unlike fellow Big East recruit San Diego State, had yet to inform the Mountain West of their official intent to withdraw from the league. It leaves only a bit more time for Boise to mull over the proposed conference switch that has enough other ramifications outside of football to cause school administrators some pause before actually parachuting out of the Mountain West.

Granted, like SDSU, Boise’s intentions to align with the Big East were nothing more blatant than a money grab But since the Broncos (and Aztecs) announced last year of their plans to transfer, enough developments have arisen to cause Boise, in particular, reason to pause.

The Broncos’ predicament is a bit different from San Diego State’s because the Aztecs were able to find a home for their other sports with the Big West. Boise, however, instead aligned itself with the WAC, but that loop has since splintered and likely disappears a year from now, which is hardly the best scenario for Boise’s non-football sports.

The thought of being homeless for other sports is becoming a very uncomfortable issue for Boise State. The Big West and the Big Sky have already told the Broncos’ brass that they are not interested in their membership. Hardly the sort of mess that Boise envisioned when making that football money move to the Big East.

And even the money equation with the Big East is under review. With the BCS apparently on its last legs, and a four-team playoff likely on the immediate horizon, the Big East’s status as an elite league could be ready to change. With the possibility of no more automatic entry into one of the big-money bowls, the Big East (which has been weathering its own round of defections) might have trouble commanding similar TV dollars in the future.

Beyond 2013-14, the Big East TV contract is in limbo, likely hinging upon where the conference lands, if it lands at all, in the new order of college football. Sources tell us that Broncos AD Mark Coyle has been making calls and looking for an independent TV consultant who can better apprise him of the TV money situation than the execs at NBC Sports or CBS College Sports, whose reports seem hard to trust.

The possibility remains that future Mountain West TV dollars might be fairly comparable to the reconfigured Big East if the latter is indeed out of the successor plan (whatever that might be) to the BCS. In that case, maybe the Broncos are just better off staying where they are in the Mountain West. Stay tuned for further developments.

On the field this fall, head coach Chris Petersen’s squad still has a veteran look with 26 seniors remaining in the fold and many of the new starters seeing action in lineup rotations a year ago. The Broncos are not as green as many believe heading into this fall.

Replacing QB Moore and Boise’s 44 ppg from last year will not be easy, but remember that the last three first-year Bronco QBs (including Moore in 2008) have recorded a combined 33-2 straight-up mark. Recent history indicates the Broncos will survive and likely prosper again this fall.

Moore’s understudy for the past two seasons, 6-foot-1 junior Joe Southwick, solidified his status as the heir apparent with solid work in the spring. While replicating Moore’s accuracy will be difficult for Southwick, his mobility is superior to Moore and offers some different possibilities for the Boise offense.

The Broncos had a school-record five players taken in last April’s NFL Draft including slashing RB Doug Martin, a first-round pick by the Tampa Bay Bucs after rampaging for almost 1300 yards and 18 TDs a year ago. But as long as senior D.J. Harper (5.4 ypc in his career) is beyond his recent knee problems, Boise’s infantry is unlikely to suffer much, if any, dropoff. Nine offensive lineman have starting experience, and four full-time starters from a year ago are back in the mix.

Southwick also has some established receiving targets on hand, led by WR Matt Miller, a possession specialist who tied for the team lead with 62 catches a year ago. Watch rangy 6-foot-4 Dutch import Gerardo Boldewijn, who has hinted at breakthroughs the past two season and regional sources suspect he could emerge as a dangerous home run threat this fall.

The recent problem for the offense, however, has been the kicking game, which dates back to normally-reliable Kyle Brtozman hooking two makeable attempts in the 2010 regular season finale loss at Nevada that kept the Broncos out of the BCS. Brotzman’s successors couldn’t even hint at competence a year ago, as Dan Goodale and Michael Frisina could combine for only six made field goals, with none longer than 32 yards.

Meanwhile, while the 'O' gets most of the headlines, in fact the Bronco stop units have also been consistently among the nation’s highest-ranked in recent years, with 2011 no exception when ranking a solid 12th in scoring defense (18.69 ppg) and a respectable 18th in overall “D” a year ago (321 ypg). Though Petersen and defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski lost nine starters from last year’s defense, several returnees saw extensive work in rserve roles last season, including several on the DL, where an all-new front starting four readies for the August 31 opener at Michigan State. A pair of thick 300-pounders, senior Michael Atkinson and junior Ricky Tjong-A-Tjoe, finally get their chances to shine at DT, and sources also say to watch juco DE Demarcus Lawrence, who opted for Bosie over Tennessee, Kansas State and others was one of the stars of spring work.

The same theme continues at the LB spots and secondary, where a collection of redshirts and other reserves finally get a chance to show their stuff. The secondary seemed to be drawing the most raves in spring, with plenty of experience among the four new starters in the Broncos’ 4-2-5 looks. Senior CB Jamar Taylor has started the past two seasons, and some believe the combo of Taylor and senior Jernell Givins on the flanks could become one of the premier shutdown CB tandems in the country.

The Broncos’ toughest tests are in the first month of the season. Following the aforementioned opener at Michigan State, Boise gets BYU and Southern Miss before September is complete. By that time we should know if Petersen has another BCS contender.

Spread-wise, note that Boise’s long-established “blue carpet magic” disappeared a year ago when the Broncos failed to cover all six of their home games. But imposts had become so burdensome that the pointspread regression was inevitable. If nothing else, the graduation of Moore likely means the Broncos won’t be looking at such mountainous spreads to overcome at home, at least until further notice.

Summing up: Boise has been such a big winner over the past decade that it is hard to imagine the Broncos slipping too much, even without QB Moore and other graduates from a year ago. Southwick has enormous shoes to fill after Moore’s departure, but Boise has won with many different signal-callers over the past decade, and regional sources say some of Boise’s recent reserves and redshirts are capable of continuing the program’s unmistakable momentum.

Boise also doesn’t have TCU to worry about in this year Mountain West, in which the Broncos seem to be the consensus favorite. Whether they circle back and remain in the Mountain West beyond this season is another question that might be answered sooner rather than later.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-21-2012, 05:28 PM

Florida State Set For Strong 2012 Campaign

This is a tricky period of time for the ACC, which wonders about its place in the new order of college football after the recent announcement of a playoff format for the 2014 season. That doesn’t materially alter the postseason too much, but the dissolution of the BCS as we know could be a big blow to the ACC (and Big East), which no longer will have automatic entry to one of the big money bowls. Stay tuned for further developments.

Which is why recent word that Florida State might be receptive to a call from the Big XII has sent alarm bells ringing across the ACC, which once made a bold addition when liberating the Seminoles from independent status in 1992, and later helped disarm the Big East as a football factor over the past decade.

The threat, legitimate or not, of Florida State jumping ship shook the ACC to its core. Despite a relatively barren patch of recent form (at least by the Seminoles’ standards), FSU, along with perhaps in-state Miami, remains the flagship football program in the conference. Departures of one or both would likely signal the end of the ACC as a major football power broker.

What has also caused the fuse to be lit in Tallahassee has been reported dissatisfaction from FSU (and perhaps Miami as well) at the recently-signed ACC television deal, which involves a healthy bump in revenues for each school but the bulk of which will not be paid until late in the nine-year contract after the "elevator clauses" are triggered.

FSU has backed off the move rumors over the past month, but regional sources note that where there is smoke in such matters, there is usually fire as well. Keep an eye on those developments as we move into the fall.

In the meantime, there’s football to be played in Tallahassee this fall. And perhaps a chance for the Seminoles to make a move in the national picture after emerging as nothing more than a false alarm a year ago, when an early three-game losing streak shut down the national title talk and effectively ticketed FSU to minor bowl status by midseason.

Many ACC insiders, however, always believed that 2012 was a more-likely breakthrough year for the 'Noles than 2011, when expectations might have been raised unnaturally high after the previous season’s Chick-fil-A Bowl win over South Carolina.

A slew of injuries and inexperience curtailed the effectiveness of the offensive line last fall and caused a regression of the running game that head coach Jimbo Fisher thought had rediscovered itself the previous year. That shortcoming made it too difficult for FSU to make a serious case for national honors and even prevented it from winning the ACC Atlantic Division, although when the smoke cleared the 'Noles had posted a representative 9-4 record and beaten old foe Notre Dame in the Champs Sports Bowl.

Again, it’s along the OL where FSU must improve for it to make a move into the upper-tier of the rankings. A repeat of last year’s anemic rushing game that ranked a sorry 104th in the country and gained only 3.3 ypc would most likely prevent the Seminoles from emerging as a national title contender.

Which would be too bad, because the rest of the FSU roster looks like it could finally make the old-line, Bobby Bowden-supporting 'Noles faithful come to embrace Fisher, whose ascension to his designated role as Bowden’s successor in 2010 nearly ripped apart Seminole nation, and whose support base is still lukewarm at best from the old Bowden crowd.

Spring work showcased a revamped OL that Fisher hopes will be able to open a few more holes for runners and protect QB EJ Manuel a bit better than a year ago. As many as four new starters could open in Jimbo’s new-look forward wall, including converted DE Cameron Erving, who wowed observers in spring when the staff moved him to a tackle spot, where touted juco Daniel Glauser has also arrived to hopefully plug the leaks along the OL dike.

There is already lots of excitement building in Tallahassee for ballyhooed frosh recruit RB Mario Pender, who combines power and speed in a frightening package. Along with soph scooter Devonta Freeman, who gained nearly 600 YR as a frosh, the potential is in place to at least improve upon last year’s anemic ground game. Still, the ground game hardly moved in the spring game when gaining less than 2 ypc. The jury thus remains out until September.

Any help from the infantry would certainly help jumbo-sized (6-foot-5, 238 lbs.) senior QB Manuel, now 13-4 in his career as a starter. Any upgrades along the OL would also be most welcomed by Manuel, as the 'Noles also allowed a whopping 41 sacks last season, ranking a poor 110th nationally. Manuel, whose shoulder injury caused him to miss action during the team's early-season slump, hinted at a real breakthrough last fall when passing for 2666 yards and 18 TD passes, but he needs help from his supporting cast (namely the OL) to emerge as the sort of difference-maker Fisher envisions.

Redshirt soph Clint Trickett, who filled in when Manuel had his shoulder problems in 2011 and enjoyed a solid spring, now provides some experience in the backup QB role, although some ACC sources are alerting to the presence of true frosh Jameis Winston who seems destined to be the QB of the future.

The passing game indeed flashed some real upside last season and hinted at better things to come in spring. Five of the top six pass catchers return from last season, led by explosive soph WR Rashad Greene, who caught 596 yards worth of passes and seven TDs as a frosh despite missing four games. Rangy 6-foor-6 senior Rodney Smith also caught 36 passes a year ago, but sources say the real breakthrough might come from another 6-foot-6 target, redshirt frosh Kelvin Benjamin, who opened several eyes in spring, including those of QB Manuel, who said that throwing to Benjamin was like “throwing an alley-oop to LeBron James.”

We’re speculating about improvements from the strike force because we have little concern about an FSU defense that should again be one of the best in the country. Defensive coordinator Mark Stoops’ attack-minded platoon returns seven starters and adds several high-profile newcomers from a stop unit that ranked second nationally in rush “D” (82 ypg), fourth in total (275 ypg) and scoring (15 ppg) defense, and eighth in sacks.

Defense was also the highlight of a high-profile recruiting haul by Fisher that landed a slew of five-star recruits who could immediately step in and contribute to another expected lights-out “D” this fall. Included are the top-rated DE (Mario Edwards) and CB (Ronald Darby) in the country, while 315-lb., but remarkably quick-footed, DT Eddie Goldman was ranked fourth in the land at his position by Scout.com.

The DL was voracious in 2011, and Stoops’ “Sack Patrol” returns senior DE Brandon Jenkins (who resisted the temptation to declare for last April’s NFL Draft) and junior DE Bjoern Werner, who combined for 15 sacks a year ago. The addition of frosh Edwards figures to further augment the pass rush, while Goldman joins a rotation of DTs paced by 301-lb. senior run-plugger Everett Dawkins.

The back seven in Stoops’ 4-3 should again be robust, led by an experienced secondary that returns three starters, including CBs Xavier Rhodes and Greg Reid, the latter also one of the nation’s top return threats. Ballyhooed frosh Darby likely gets baptized in nickel formations but is expected to make a greater impact as the season progresses.

Stoops spent the spring experimenting and juggling at the LB spots, partly because of senior MLB Vince Williams’ leg injury. But the move of former SS Nick Moody to OLB went smoothly, as did the switch of super-athletic senior Christian Jones from a strong-side to a weak-side LB spot, where his playmaking bent is expected to further shine.

The Seminoles’ 2012 schedule is made for a run to the BCS, although FSU should be docked some votes for scheduling a pair of FCS foes, Murray State and Savannah State, out of the chute. Revenge games follow vs. Wake Forest and Clemson, also both at Doak Campbell, and the first road trip is only a bus ride to nearby Tampa for a September 29 date vs. South Florida, when FSU likely has half of the crowd.

The toughest tests are likely to be ACC road dates at North Carolina State and Virginia Tech, especially with the annual regular season-ender vs. Florida played in Tallahassee this season.

Totals followers will note that Jimbo’s FSU, with a defense-minded theme, has resulted in a 17-8-1 'under' mark the past two seasons.

Summary: Is this the year FSU reappears as a national title contender? We’re reluctant to go that far when projecting 2012 until the leaky offensive line demonstrates significant upgrades from a year ago. Still, with the voracious defense, QB Manuel, an intriguing collection of skill-position weapons and a favorable schedule, FSU looks to be in position to at least earn its first BCS berth since the 2005 season.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-21-2012, 05:29 PM

BYU Cougars Could Sneak Into BCS Picture

When BYU QB Riley Nelson began his college football career, George W. Bush was still in the White House, Dennis Hastert was Speaker of the House and Barack Obama was still a senator from Illinois who had yet to announce his candidacy for the presidency. And it was two years before we started to hear the bad news about Lehman Brothers, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Those were the days when Nelson was a freshman QB at Utah State in the fall of 2006. Now it’s 2012, and having stretched NCAA eligibility requirements beyond recognition, Nelson continues playing college football, only now he is taking snaps in Provo for Brigham Young instead of in Logan, and having the benefit of a two-year LDS mission and a medical redshirt season to allow him one more year of life on the college level.

And BYU is sure glad that Nelson has one more stab this fall, as coach Bronco Mendenhall’s Cougars plot what could be a stealth mission that, if all goes to plan, could see BYU knocking on the door of the BCS.

A key could certainly be the playmaking Nelson, who wrested the starting job from then-soph Jake Heaps a year ago and proceeded to lead the Cougars on a hot run down the stretch and into the Armed Forces Bowl, where BYU beat Tulsa in a 24-21 white-knuckler.

The final verdict on the Cougs’ move to football independence remains elusive, as BYU enters its second season minus a conference affiliation this fall. The Cougs bolted the Mountain West following the 2010-11 school year, believing the independent route was their best path going forward for the football program (other sports have affiliated with the West Coast Conference).

Television rights were one consideration for the school, which retains its own network, available in millions of homes across the country. Specifics regarding TV rights with the Mountain West were another bone of contention between BYU and its former league.

Still, the independent way continues to be subject of debate in Provo. Sources report that BYU AD Tom Holmoe has been lamenting about the problems the independent Cougs are confronting as they look to fill their schedules in upcoming years. Which is one reason why BYU continues to be a popular subject in conference realignment gossip.

There were negotiations between the expansion-minded Big East and BYU late last year that were eventually tabled. The Provo school also remains a favorite subject regarding possible Big XII expansion, although those possibilities seem to have cooled. Stay tuned for further developments.

BYU’s path to the BCS is hardly a clear one even if the Cougs should run the table this fall. At the least, expect BYU to qualify for its eighth bowl (this year it would be San Diego’s Poinsettia) in as many seasons for the classy Mendenhall, who has brought stability and success to a program that had lost both in the immediate aftermath of longtime head coach Lavell Edwards’ retirement 12 years ago.

Nelson is an easy subject with which to begin Cougar discussions regarding 2012, but if BYU is indeed going to make a long shot run at the BCS, Mendenhall’s defense is likely to be key.

Mendenhall, who has done double duty as the team’s defensive coordinator since the middle of the 2010 season, retains a form of the unorthodox 3-3-5 defensive alignments that Bronco first learned at New Mexico when working under Rocky Long. BYU also shifts into more-basic 3-4 looks that will highlight a collection of rugged returning starters in Kyle Van Noy, Brandon Ogletree and Uona Kaveinga, all honors candidates and part of seven returning starters who form the core of the Cougar stop unit.

The 'D' could be even better than it was a year ago when it placed among the national leaders in total (ranked 13th at only 313 ypg) and scoring (ranked 20th at 20 ppg) defenses. Up front, the Cougs figure to be menacing, especially with nose tackle Romney Fuga (all 321 pounds of him) anchoring the middle, and another rugged Polynesian, Eathyn Manumaleuna, lining up beside him.

Mendenhall also believes 6-6, 270-lb. Ghanian Ezekiel Ansah, a physical specimen who originally attended BYU on a track scholarship but has the tools to dominate at either DE or LB. Standout senior CB Preston Hadley and junior SS Daniel Sorenson are also a couple of potential postseason honors candidates.

Yet it was Nelson’s emergence in the second half of the 2011 campaign that fueled the Cougs to wins in nine of their last 10 games and caused the aforementioned former blue-chip recruit Heaps to transfer to Kansas after last season. The exciting Nelson, a BYU version of Tim Tebow, is fearless and apt to take off and run from the pocket at the first opportunity, gaining 392 rush yards a year ago. But offensive coordinator Brandon Doman still believes Nelson can be an even more effective passer out of the Cougs’ West Coast offense after passing for 19 TDs and only seven picks last season.

If there is a concern at QB, it’s behind Nelson, where there is little experienced depth. Unless emergency circumstances arise, expect touted frosh QB Tanner Mangum to be redshirted in the fall before likely taking over from Nelson next season.

Nelson also has established and lanky receiving targets in 6-foot-4 wideout Cody Hoffman, who caught the winning TD pass from Nelson with just 11 seconds to play in the bowl thriller vs. Tulsa, and 6-foot-3 Ross Apo (who should be ready in the fall after sitting out spring drills after shoulder surgery), combined for over 1400 yards worth of catches and 19 TDs last fall.

Mendenhall also believes his infantry should improve in the fall despite the loss of RBs J.J. DeLuigi and Bryan Kariya to graduation. The new RB group is reportedly the fastest in memory at the school, and slashers Mike Alisa and Josh Quezada have hinted at breakouts in the past. Watch speedy frosh RB Jamaal Williams, who starred as a prep in California (Fontana). The special teams also look encouraging, with both kickers (PK Justin Sorenson & P Riley Stephenson) back in the mix.

The Cougs, as mentioned earlier, already have a postseason destination secured in the San Diego Poinsettia Bowl, where, ironically, BYU would be facing a Mountain West rep. But the schedule is built for a BCS run, as the Cougs figure to have real chances in their toughest road games at Utah, rebuilding Boise State, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. Win those, and the Cougs could get into the BCS discussion.

Spread-wise, note that BYU roared down the stretch last season behind Nelson, covering its last seven games on the board. Mendenhall also enters 2012 having covered 14 of his last 18 on the board since late in the 2010 season.

Summary: Riley Nelson has proven himself a worthy successor to the great BYU quarterback pedigree, an exciting playmaker with an ability to raise the level of play from his teammates, as demonstrated down the stretch last season. As long as Nelson stays healthy, the pieces are indeed in place on both sides of the ball for BYU to easily qualify for its eighth bowl in as many seasons for Mendenhall...and maybe even emerge as a dark horse BCS candidate. Fun times in Provo!

**StarDust Bum** · 07-21-2012, 05:31 PM

Mike Leach Set To Lead Washington State Cougars

He’s back!

The resurfacing of ex-Texas Tech head coach Mike Leach as the new boss at Washington State looks like it could be a marriage made in gridiron heaven. Leach’s act always figured to play best at a remote locale off of the beaten track. And Pullman, Washington is about as far off the beaten track as any place this side of Saskatchewan.

Leach’s return had been rumored at a variety of destinations since he ran afoul of Texas Tech administrators in 2009 and was forced to resign as a result of allegations brought forth by WR Adam James. Leach eventually brought suit against Texas Tech for wrongful termination, and though most of those claims have been dismissed, what remains of the lawsuit has been working its way through the Texas appeals system.

Now, however, Leach can concentrate on football once more.

Leach’s many peculiarities (including his fascination with pirates) are easily overlooked in the remote Palouse, and especially by WSU backers who probably wouldn’t care if Leach insisted that Captain Kidd replace Butch the Cougar as the Wazzu mascot. Besides, Washington State has had enough of its share of helpless editions throughout the decades that the support base is usually going to be satisfied with a competitive product that usually (but not always) competes for bowl berths and makes only an occasional run at conference honors and the national rankings.

Leach, it would seem, should be able to meet those minimum expectations better than predecessor Paul Wulff, who admittedly inherited a carcass of a program from predecessor Bill Doba but could do no better than last year’s 4-8 mark in his four years in charge.

Toward the end of the Wulff regime, however, green shoots began to appear on the long-barren Pullman landscape, which Leach hopes to further cultivate in the fall. Leach, his own offensive coordinator, wasted no time installing his new attack in spring as the roster began to get a feel for the new staff and terminology.

Leach inherits a strike force that actually ranked a respectable 33rd nationally in total offense last fall and ninth in passing, though much of those numbers were piled up at the expense of overmatched early foes Idaho State and UNLV. Leach even added some new wrinkles to his pet 4-WR, Air Raid looks. With ex-Nevada and UCLA offensive assistant Jim Mastro now on staff, Leach introduced some variations to his 'O' that included Nevada-influenced 'Pistol' looks, multiple RB sets, and motion with the same out of the backfield, plus some play-action and 'pop' passes that had rarely been part of Leach’s former bag of tricks at Texas Tech.

Leach developed a succession of prolific triggermen at Tech, and whoever takes the snaps in the Coug version of the spread is likely to rank among the nation’s passing leaders. After spring work, it appears as if oft-injured senior holdover Jeff Tuel is likely to start the challenging September 1 opener at BYU. With last year’s late-season sensation, soph Connor Halliday, recovering in spring from a lacerated liver, Tuel took almost all of the reps with the first team in spring and enters fall with a clear lead in the QB derby, though Leach is withholding an official announcement on his starter until later this summer.

The spring game served as an early warning for Cougar foes as Leach’s spread functioned with barely a hitch. Tuel completed his first 15 passes and tallied 285 aerial yards on the afternoon, which admittedly could also be an indictment of the defense. Still, excitement was hard to contain among long-suffering Wazzu backers who had trouble comprehending what they were actually seeing from the Leach offense.

If he’s healthy, Tuel would seem a good fit for Leach’s pass-happy offense that also features plenty of quick reads and slants, each designed to get rid of the ball quickly and hopefully make Tuel less of a target in the pocket for opposing pass rushers who were often on top of him in his deeper drops and longer-developing reads from the Wulff days, contributing to some of Tuel’s various injury problems the past three seasons. Cougar QBs were sacked a whopping 40 times last fall, ranking a poor 116th nationally.

Tuel, or maybe Halliday, will have the benefit of having one of the Pac-12's, if not the nation’s, top wideouts in smooth-striding 6-foot-4 junior Marquess Wilson, who wowed observers in April and drew further attention in the spring game when hauling in an 84-yard TD pass from Tuel. Wilson, who caught 82 passes worth almost 17 yards per catch and 12 TDs a year ago, could post even bigger numbers in the Leach offense. Converted senior TE Andrei Lintz made the switch to WR in spring and developed a quick rapport with Tuel. Plenty of underclassmen with blazing speed similar to Leach’s many receiving targets at Texas Tech are also on hand.

The backs also have to catch the ball in the Leach offense, and last year’s leading rusher, soph Ricky Galvin (611 YR), seems to have the hands to make things work after catching 26 passes from Tuel, Halliday and graduated Marshall Lobbestael a year ago.

The OL improved a year ago after being a (very) weak link in Wulff’s first few seasons, but still had problems protecting the QB, reflected in the aforementioned sack stats. Three starters return, with junior LT John Fullington a possible honors candidate.

Reliable PK Andrew Furney is also back after hitting 14-of-16 FG tries a year ago.

Defense, however, always took a backseat for Leach in his Lubbock days, and this is no LSU-like stop unit that leach inherits in Pullman. Although the Cougar 'D' improved a year ago from the weakling versions the previous three seasons for Wulff, WSU still allowed 31.8 ppg a year ago, ranking 95th in scoring defense, while its pass efficiency defense ranked 111th, numbers even worse than those Leach’s stop units posted at Texas Tech.

Leach thus authorized new defensive coordinator Mike Breske to implement a change to 3-4 alignments from the recent 4-3 used by Wulff’s recent teams. But a pair of returning starting LBs, C.J. Mizell and Sekope Kaufusi, were dismissed in spring due to disciplinary reasons. Along with the graduation of 2011's inspirational leader, Alex Hoffman-Ellis, it leaves Wazzu pretty thin at the LB spots, where several speedy newcomers (watch soph Chester Su’a and RS frosh Darryl Monroe on the inside) will get their chances this fall.

Also note that Travis Long, a three-year starter at DE with 36 career starts for Wulff’s teams and having recorded 12 tackles for a loss last season, has been moved to a hybrid LB/DE spot in the Breske defense. The new DL could be ornery if RS frosh Xavier Cooper fulfills his promise at a DE spot, and there is experience and depth at the NT spot.

Whatever the combinations in the front seven, Breske’s new-look 3-4 must generate a better pass rush after the Cougs generated only 17 sacks all of last season, ranking 94th nationally.

On the plus side, there’s plenty of experience in the secondary, where returnees have a combined 95 starts in their careers. Senior SS Tyree Toomer will be a four-year starter in fall, while junior FS Deone Bucannon emerged as the star if the secondary last fall. One new face to watch could be true frosh Gabriel Marks, an L.A.-area product and touted WR prospect but whom Breske believes might make a more-immediate impact as DB, where Marks also starred as a prep.

The schedule is manageable and the Cougs will be heavy favorites in two of their three non-league games (home vs. nearby Eastern Washington and at UNLV), although anticipation is already growing for the challenging opener at rugged BYU, a game that has been already moved to Thursday, August 30 as one of ESPN’s featured games on the first night of the college season.

Note that Wulff’s Cougar teams covered seven of their last nine at Pullman and were hardly a pushover vs. the line, although Wazzu was routinely undervalued by oddsmakers and the wagering public and received benefit from many inflated lines. Leach’s reputation might have the opposite effect, as WSU can be expected to instead be slightly overvalued at the outset. Still, be aware that Leach’s Red Raider teams generally performed well as a favorite, especially when laying seven points or more, standing 30-19 vs. the spread.

Summary: Leach’s new presence, plus improvements shown last season by Wazzu, suggests the Cougs could make a quick ascent, especially in a Pac-12 that looks a bit suspect beyond loop favorites Oregon and Southern Cal (the latter not on WSU’s 2012 slate). If he can stay healthy, expect senior QB Jeff Tuel to post some big numbers this fall. As has often been the case with Leach’s past teams, the defense can be expected to lag behind, which could keep a bowl game just beyond the reach of this season’s Cougar edition.

But maybe not. The recent days of WSU being a pushover look to be in the rear-view mirror, and we wouldn’t bet against Leach breaking Wazzu’s 9-year postseason drought this fall.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-21-2012, 05:32 PM

Penn State Faces New Beginning In 2012

In recent months, we have had a lot to say about what went on at Penn State late last year, in the period of time in and around the dismissal of iconic head coach Joe Paterno. Time and space do not permit us from embellishing too much further on the entire situation that began to unravel once former assistant Jerry Sandusky was arrested, and eventually convicted, of child abuse and deviancy. We’ll save extended commentary on this sordid affair for another place and time.

For what it’s worth, however, we were on the record long before the Sandusky developments became public knowledge that something else had been amiss in Happy Valley for several years, with Paterno’s program acting as sort of a halfway house for troubled youths. The fact is that over the past several years, Paterno’s Nittany Lions had turned outlaw, with police blotters long enough to shame even those wild Cincinnati Bengals teams of earlier in the past decade.

We spoke at length at how the national sports media, long intent on affixing labels of its choosing, mostly ignored the many transgressions within the Penn State program. Even the media outlets that did go to lengths to uncover the shenanigans somehow allowed Paterno to escape unscathed.

Of course, all of that changed last November when the Sandusky story broke. In the aftermath, Paterno was forced out, and suddenly the national media decided to dog pile on “Shades” after choosing to look the other way when other developments invited heavy scrutiny. Only when Paterno eventually fell ill did the national media pull away from the Happy Valley icon, who passed away from the advancing cancer earlier this year. What a sad way for a life to end.

No matter, we suggest that Paterno’s shadow cast so large in the state that his quest to break the all-time winning record for coaches had more than a bit to do with the timing of the original Sandusky arrest, coming as it did during a bye week and right after “Joe Pa” had finally set the career win mark. We have some oceanfront property in Phoenix to unload to anyone who thinks that sort of timing was just a coincidence.

We could talk forever about this subject, but there is football again to be played at Beaver Stadium this fall. And for the first time since 1965, when Rip Engle still roamed the Nittany Lion sidelines, someone other than Paterno will be the head coach in Happy Valley.

Meet Bill O’Brien, most recently the offensive coordinator with the New England Patriots, who, if reports are to be believed, was hardly the first choice of the Penn State brass to lead the post-Paterno era. But after being turned down by countless coaches – including Virginia’s Mike London and Miami-Florida’s Al Golden, a Penn State alum, and a handful of others – the Nittany Lions landed on O’Brien, whose only link to Penn State is that he attended the same undergrad, Brown, as did Paterno.

Succeeding coaching icons is never easy, but succeeding disgraced ones is a different ballgame. For that reason alone, O’Brien’s appointment differs from many in recent memory who have followed legendary coaches. About the only parallel we can draw involves Ohio State after Woody Hayes’ ouster following the 1978 Gator Bowl, when slugging Tiger defender Charlie Baumann after the latter’s game-saving interception was simply the last straw for Buckeye administrators.

Hayes’ transgressions, of course, paled against what forced Paterno out of his job last season, but, as we said, it’s the closest example we can recall. Even then, the Buckeyes replaced Hayes with Earle Bruce, who had served on Woody’s Ohio State staffs and done a good job establishing himself as a top-flight head coach at Iowa State before getting the call from Columbus. Bruce proved a good fit, too, almost leading his first Buck team in 1979 to an undefeated season, before eventually running afoul of the jaded Buckeye boosters, who forced him out after the 1987 campaign.

No other past replacement of a legend carried anything close to the dynamics of the O’Brien-after-Paterno situation at Penn State. Bear Bryant retired from Alabama after the 1982 season, but gave his endorsement and blessing to successor Ray Perkins, one of his star Crimson Tide players in the ‘60s who had cut his teeth as head coach of the NFL New York Giants the previous four years, and had taken the G-Men to the playoffs with Scott Brunner as his QB in 1981. That alone seemed to suggest Perkins, like the Bear, could walk on water. Bryant died only a month after his retirement, and Perkins only had modest success in four seasons before leaving for a return to the NFL and the Tampa Bay Bucs.

When Darrell Royal retired at Texas, Fred Akers, a former Longhorn aide who had turned around the program at Wyoming, was a fairly well-received successor, especially since Akers’ first UT team in ‘77 finished the regular season ranked atop the polls and featured Heisman winner Earl Campbell. The same year, Frank Broyles retired at Arkansas, succeeded by Lou Holtz, who had just abandoned the New York Jets after a solid run at NC State. The Holtz hire was not as well-received initially, but Lou quieted the critics with an 11-1 mark in his first year and an Orange Bowl upset over Oklahoma.

In other words, we’re entering some new territory at Penn State with the scenario surrounding O’Brien taking over for Paterno (or, technically, former defensive coordinator Tom Bradley, who served as the interim coach late last season after the Paterno ouster). O’Brien inherits what might have been the worst 9-win team in the country last season, but only eight starters are returning from that side that understandably lost three of its last four, including a Ticket City Bowl beating administered by Houston. O’Brien inherits an offense that ranked in the bottom three of Big Ten stats in offense, scoring and passing efficiency.

The focus of O’Brien’s pro-style attack is likely to be TB Silas Redd, a punishing charger who slashed his way for 1241 yards rushing in 2011. Redd, though, is only one of three returning full-time starters on the strike force, which is likely to have the same problems as some of Paterno’s final teams...more specifically, finding a quarterback.

Spring work was inconclusive as none from among past starters Matt McGloin and Ron Bolden, plus Paul Jones, established himself, although O’Brien (who will call his own offensive plays) has reluctantly named McGloin as his tentative starter heading into fall. McGloin performed with a bit more consistency a year ago than Bolden after the latter completed just 39 percent of his passes with a mere two TDs last fall. Jones, ineligible the last two seasons, could be an intriguing alternative if McGloin struggles.

Five of the top six receivers from last season have departed as well; only wideout Justin Brown, who caught 35 passes a year ago, returns. Expect massive 6-foot-6, 277-lb. TE Gary Gilliam, or perhaps another jumbo-sized TE, true frosh 6-foot-7 Jesse James (we like the name already), to perhaps become integral features in the O’Brien offense.

Four new starters must also be plugged into the OL, which could impede Redd’s progress if the new-look forward wall takes time to coagulate.

Defensively, new coordinator Ted Roof (once the head coach at Duke, where he employed O’Brien as an assistant) hopes a high-risk, high-reward scheme will pay dividends after the Nittany Lions were mostly a read-and-react platoon under Tom Bradley. Penn State returns five starters to the platoon – counting LB Michael Mauti, who went down for the count in the fourth game a year ago vs. Eastern Michigan – that allowed only 16.8 ppg in 2011, good for fifth in the country.

Roof’s major concern is a rebuilt secondary that must replace all of its starters from a year ago. Former WR Curtis Drake was converted to a cornerback spot, where he likely starts on the other side from senior Stephen Morris, but not much was accomplished with the DBs in spring as minor injuries curtailed the involvement of many.

As usual, the Nittany Lions should have a robust front seven. The reappearance of Mauti, alongside returning starters Glenn Carson and Gerald Hughes, signals another solid linebacker corps (the 'Linebacker U' tag should stick for at least another year post-Paterno). An all-upperclass defensive line features DT Jordan Hill and DEs Sean Stanley and Pete Massaro, all honors candidates.

Summary: It is probably a good idea for Penn State to have cut ties with the Paterno regime as decisively as it did, and bring in an outsider as the new coach. If ever a program needed some new blood, this was it. Whether O’Brien, a creative offensive strategist but in his first head-coaching assignment, is up to the task, remains to be seen. We’ve seen a lot of decorated coordinators fail as head coaches in the past. If O’Brien can smooth the offense and upgrade the QB production, the strike force could improve, and Penn State is rarely caught short on defense.

Still, the Nittany Lions probably orbit outside of the rankings this season and settle for another minor bowl assignment, while we wait a few more years to deliver a verdict on the O’Brien hire.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-21-2012, 05:34 PM

Nevada Wolf Pack Ready For MWC Debut

Welcome to the Mountain West!

This would not be earth-shaking news at most college football locales but it certainly is a headliner in Reno, where the Nevada Wolf Pack have escaped the burning building that is the WAC and finally landed in their long-term destination of the MWC. Where, among other things, the Pack will be reunited with sister school UNLV in the southern part of the state.

Indeed, for the Nevada athletic program, affiliation with the Mountain West is akin to hitting a jackpot at one of the slots at the nearby Silver Legacy or Harrah’s.

The Pack seems to have picked a good year to make the jump to the MWC where it is also being joined by another couple of former WAC refugees, Fresno State and Hawaii. With TCU leaving for the Big XII and Boise State looking at significant graduation depletion before it heads (supposedly) for the Big East next year, the Mountain West race looks wide open, and Nevada can feel justifiably confident that it has a chance to steal the league crown in its first trip around the new track.

Of course, the Wolf Pack is going to feel pretty confident in whatever league it plays as long as “The Little General” himself, coach Chris Ault, is still stalking the sidelines. Ault, who had already been inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame before he took over the Nevada program for a third time in 2004, has again resurrected the Pack to the point where they are now bowl regulars, having competed in the postseason for seven straight seasons. Not to mention occasionally making noise in the national rankings, as was the case two years ago when the Pack fashioned a 13-1 mark and finished ranked 11th in the final polls.

Although we suggest that Nevada backers enjoy Ault while they can, as regional insiders are suggesting that The Little General might only have a couple of years to go before hanging ‘em up for good. Replacing Ault has already proven to be a tricky exercise two previous times, when Ault temporarily hung up the coaching whistle to concentrate on AD duties at the school. But Ault, who has been in Reno almost all of his adult life after starring as a Wolf Pack QB in the ‘60s, and was named Nevada’s head coach for the first time in 1976 when just 29 years of age, is not going to be coaching forever.

Ault, however, has always made the most of his situation, and the Pack is hardly outgunned as it enters its new league this fall. Ault’s pet “Pistol” formation, which has been copied by a variety of coaches around the country, continues to churn out big numbers for annually-explosive Nevada offenses that consistently rank among the top rushing and scoring teams in the nation.

Nevada ranked sixth nationally in total offense (507 ypg) and eighth in rushing offense (248 ypg) while scoring a hefty 32 ppg in 2011. We doubt much changes in all regards this fall.

Although the Wolf Pack regressed a bit a year ago from the Colin Kaepernick-led side that finished 13-1 in 2010, Nevada still got back to the postseason on the heels of a 7-5 regular-season mark prior to a bitter 24-17 loss to Southern Miss in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, and many key elements return to the Nevada mix.

Importantly, Ault discovered a viable heir apparent at QB to the prolific Kaepernick when then RS-frosh QB Cody Fajardo burst open the scene last fall, taking over for senior Tyler Lantrip as the starter at midseason and immediately proving a perfect fit for the Pistol when he rushing for 694 yards and 11 TDs while passing for another 1707 yards (and 69% completions).

Expect the exciting Fajardo to post even bigger numbers in 2012, although it’s worth noting that Pistol QBs are expected to take much punishment (which, in retrospect, made Kaepernick’s durability even harder to comprehend), and Fajardo was temporarily KO’d late last season. That is why Ault took a careful look at his backup QBs, neither of whom had taken a college snap, in spring. But RS frosh Tanner Roderick and juco addition Devin Combs appear to have plenty of intriguing upside should either be called upon if Fajardo goes down at some point this fall.

Ault has been plugging in varieties of different RBs to his Pistol since first installed in 2005, and we hardly believe the departure of last year’s top two rushers Lampford Mark and Mike Ball (who combined for over 1600 rush yards in 2011) is going to slow the attack. Junior Stefphon Jefferson (6.1 ypc last year) has been anxiously awaiting his turn in line the past couple of years, and regional sources say soph pinball Kendall Brock and punishing 225-lb. RS frosh Tony Knight, a legit pile-driver, should forge another seamless transition to a new set of Nevada runners.

The Pistol figures to get a few new wrinkles this fall with the addition of offensive coordinator Nick Rolovich, not long ago a productive QB for June Jones at Hawaii and most recently the coordinator for Red Gun attacks on the islands for HC Greg McMackin, who was forced out in Honolulu after last season. Rolovich figures to add a few more aerial tricks to the offensive package without altering the Pistol’s focus upon the infantry.

As usual, another experienced well-coordinated 'The Union' OL should open up holes for a variety of backs and keep Fajardo fairly well-protected, although Ault and Rolovich spent spring closely monitoring the development of soph C Matt Galas, quick but a bit undersized at 275 pounds and taking the place of graduated starter Jordan Mudge. Three seniors, including an obliterating left side of the line featuring T Jeff Nady and G Jeff Barker, plus RG Alex Pinto, provide the veteran leadership up front, while MWC sources believe soph T Kyle Roberts could eventually be the best of the bunch.

Expect Fajardo to far surpass the six TD passes he threw a year ago, especially since WR Brandon Wimberly, considered an NFL prospect before a suffering a life-threatening gunshot wound early in 2011, is now back in the fold. If back near 100 percent, the 6-foot-3, 210-lb. Wimberly (with 94 career catches) could emerge as a field-stretching threat. The emergence of soph Aaron Bradley (28 catches as a frosh) as 2011 progressed as a secondary-distorting threat bodes well for Fajardo and the aerial games.

Meanwhile, the kicking game uncovered a surprise contributor last fall in walk-on Allen Hardison, an Orange County, Ca. product who displayed a strong leg when hitting 8-of-11 FGs after first-stringer Anthony Martinez went down with a leg injury.

Although Ault’s defense usually lags behind his offense, there have been several impact players populating the Wolf Pack stop unit in recent years, and a few of those were among Nevada’s record four picks in last April’s NFL Draft (LB James-Michael Johnson by the Browns in the 4th round, LB Brandon Marshall by the Jags in the 5th round, and CB Isaiah Frey by the Bears in the 6th round; DE Brett Roy was a FA signee by the Jets).

With much of last year’s stop unit spending the summer in NFL camps, the pressure is on defensive coordinator Mike Bradeson to fill in an uncommon number of high-profile gaps on defense.

The main area of concern is along the DL, where the graduated Roy provided much of the pass rush last year. MWC scouts do say that the new-look line is loaded with athleticism, however, with 270-lb. RS frosh DT Rykeem Yates and juco DE Tyler Houk most impressive in spring work. An all-senior LB corps should feature plenty of pressure from the edge with last year’s juco find Jeremiah Green and DeAndre Broughton, who missed all of 2011 with a broken leg.

The strength of the platoon is likely to be in a veteran secondary that features honors candidates in hard-hitting senior SS Duke Williams, who recorded 83 tackles a year ago, and CB Khalid Wooten. Remember, the Pack allowed only 48 percent completions in 2011 and ranked near the middle of national pass defense stats after placing 98th the previous year. As with the LB corps, Bradeson likely employs an all-senior secondary for the opener at Berkeley.

Pointspread-wise, Ault’s teams have historically been a good bully at home, but inflated numbers (a carryover from the Kaepernick years) have made overcoming those hefty imposts a bit harder the past two seasons. The Pack, which was 19-4 for Ault as Mackay Stadium chalk from 2004-09, is only 5-6 as a favorite in Reno the past two years.

Summary: Nevada has emerged as one of the nation’s most-exciting and entertaining teams over the past several years and we see no reason that should change with the Pack’s move into the Mountain West this fall. Fajardo is likely to post Kaepernick-like numbers (at least 1000 YR and 2000 YP) if he stays healthy, and the Pistol should again post eye-popping stats.

How soon some new playmakers emerge on the stop unit (especially within the front four) should determine if Nevada can contend for a conference title in its first trip around the Mountain West track. Even if falling short of that goal, expect Ault’s Wolf Pack to make an eighth straight bowl appearance in December.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-21-2012, 05:35 PM

Notre Dame Unsettled At QB Entering 2012

Ready for a game of musical quarterbacks at Notre Dame? As if the Fighting Irish don’t have enough to be worried about these days.

But as Notre Dame enters a potentially-pivotal third season of the Brian Kelly era this fall, it does so without clear knowledge of who might be calling the signals on the field for the September 1 opener in Dublin vs. Navy. And most college gridiron observers agree that the Irish are going to need better QB play to break the 8-win ceiling of Kelly’s first two somewhat-disappointing seasons in South Bend.

That Kelly would be having QB problems at Notre Dame comes as a surprise to many after he turned Ben Mauk and Tony Pike into stars during his years at Cincinnati. To this point, however, the QB dilemma has been a sticking point during Kelly’s brief regime in South Bend.

Kelly exited spring with no idea who from among four candidates – junior Tommy Rees, RS soph Andrew Hendrix, soph Everett Golson, or true frosh Gunner Kiel – would be taking the majority of snaps for the Fighting Irish this fall. Some are suggesting that Kelly could be tempted to use two, three or perhaps all four QBs as the situations dictate. Others believe Kelly would like to name one starter and simply go from there, although available evidence indicates none of the candidates has come close to emerging as a clear-cut number one choice.

Rees, who started much of last season and late in the previous 2010 campaign, remains the favorite, although he might be looking at an early-season suspension pending mid-July sentencing on four misdemeanor charges after being arrested following a South bend party on May 3. Rees is 12-4 as a career starter and has passed for 32 TDs and nearly 4000 yards in his career, but has been mistake-prone, tossing 22 career picks.

Kelly could also opt for Hendrix, a Cincy Moeller product who has the arm strength and running ability to effectively operate Kelly’s spread. Hendrix also has some experience, relieving Rees at times a year ago. Golson, a dual pass-run threat, outperformed the others in the spring game.

And then, then there’s Kiel, the ballyhooed true frosh who reversed course on an earlier commitment to LSU and instead picked South Bend, where he enrolled early to participate in spring drills. Regarded as having more upside than the others, Kiel’s candidacy for a starting role this fall still seems like something of a long shot, especially in the early going, although more than a few Domers believe he’ll eventually be the answer.

Whoever takes snaps will not have the secondary-distorting threat provided by departed WR Michael Floyd, who caught 100 passes last fall and was a first-round choice of the Arizona Cardinals in last April’s NFL Draft. The latest in a long line of high-profile Notre Dame TEs, 6-foot-6 senior Tyler Eifert, caught 63 passes as a reliable underneath weapon a year ago.

Still, the QBs will miss Floyd’s downfield threat unless some other wideouts emerge. The best bet looks to be RS soph DaVaris Daniels, who starred in spring. Returning WRs John Goodman, T.J. Jones and Robby Tomas have yet to demonstrate homerun ability (the trio combined for just 638 yards on their 64 catches a year ago).

Kelly and offensive coordinator Chuck Martin did some personnel experimenting in spring, with senior Theo Riddick, who has performed with some flair as a slot-back in the past, and soph RB George Atkinson III, who displayed coast-to-coast ability as a frosh (particularly as kick returner, a role in which he scored 2 TDs last year), being used at both RB and wideout positions.

Look for Riddick to steal some carries from functional senior RB Cierre Wood, who provided the bulk of the infantry attack in 2011 when rushing for 1102 yards.

Kelly’s O-line returns three senior starters from a forward wall that paved the way for runners to gain almost five yards per carry in 2011. Overall seven starters, plus several backups who saw action in 2011, return on "O" this fall.

As for the defense, coordinator Bob Diaco received a present in January when senior LB Manti Te’o decided not to enter the NFL Draft and instead return for one more season in South Bend. After recording 261 tackles the past two seasons, he’s the unquestioned leader of the platoon. Although Diaco also took a blow when DE Aaron Lynch, who led all Irish defenders with 5½ sacks last season as a frosh, transferred to South Florida.

Last season’s ND stop unit, with better foot speed than many recent Irish defenses, was rarely overwhelmed after a late-game collapse in September at Michigan. Notre Dame allowed only 20.7 ppg, good for 24th in the country and impressive considering the many high-powered attacks the Irish faced a year ago.

Still, Diaco has some playmakers to replace in the secondary, including SS Harrison Smith, who was a first-round draft choice of the Minnesota Vikings, and both of last year’s starting CBs (Gary Gray and Robert Blanton).

Yet even with Lynch’s premature departure, Diaco likes what he has up front in his 3-4 looks, with plenty of experience in the projected starting lineup (DEs Kapron Lewis-Moore and Stephon Tuitt, and NG Louis Nix III, combined for 107 tackles and 11½ tackles for loss a year ago). The Te’o-led LB corps is full of playmakers.

Diaco, however, is entering fall looking for some answers in the secondary, especially after the availability of junior Austin Collinsworth (Chris’ son), whose emergence as a safety provided Diaco with several options, is now in question after June shoulder surgery. Versatile senior FS Jamoris Slaughter, the only returning starter in the secondary, could be moved as needed to the corner or pass-rushing LB spots as Diaco saw fit, if Collinsworth were available. Last year’s backup CBs, juniors Lo Wood and Bennett Jackson, are being counted upon to deliver this fall.

Turnover issues also must be corrected if the Irish are to make a serious move toward the BCS. Rees’ interceptions were only part of the problem in 2011; the Irish also conceded length-of-field fumble return TDs in the midst of rallies last season in eventual losses to South Florida and USC, and the Irish were among the worst in the country (-15, ranked 118th) in turnover margin.

Kelly, once a winning pointspread proposition in days at Central Michigan and Cincinnati, is only 11-12-3 vs. the number the past two seasons at ND, covering only four of 13 home games. Note, however, how the Irish have been a solid "under" play (16-8-1) in Kelly’s first two years.

Summary: Notre Dame provides interesting subject matter as usual, and might emerge from the post-BCS landscape even further entrenched in its independent role (which has been challenged by many Domers who believe it’s time for the Irish to join a league); if ND secures a future deal with the Orange Bowl, the join-a-conference debate in South Bend is likely tabled for another decade. But it’s also been a long time since the Irish were among the nation’s elite, and this fall’s schedule is no picnic, with the first trip to Oklahoma since 1966, plus a couple of other preseason top ten teams in Michigan and Southern Cal, and six other bowl teams from 2011, is daunting to say the least. Even if Kelly solves his QB dilemma, the schedule should preclude any BCS conjecture.

Looks like another minor bowl for the Irish, the new norm in South Bend, and it might not be long before the natives become as restless with Kelly as they were with Charlie Weis, Ty Willingham and Bob Davie.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-21-2012, 05:37 PM

Texas Longhorns Eye Return To BCS Stature

Say it ain’t so! Could Mack Brown really be in trouble at Texas?

Yep, could be.

Although some college football insiders suspect that Mack will be safe in Austin as long as AD DeLoss Dodds is his boss, others aren’t so sure. The Longhorns are just 13-12 over the past two seasons, and after an embarrassing 5-7 pratfall in 2010, last year’s team could only make a mild recovery, finishing a modest 7-5 in the regular season before beating a suspect Cal team, from a subpar Pac-12, in the Holiday Bowl.

Coaches have been fired for lesser transgressions in Austin, where normal rules do not apply. The likes of Fred Akers, David McWilliams and John Mackovic, Brown’s predecessors who all got the boot after brief dips in form, can attest.

Sure, Brown had plenty of capital to expend with the zealous Texas support base after the 2005 national title led by Vince Young, and subsequent successes under QB Colt McCoy, but hovering around .500 for any extended period of time is unacceptable performance for the 'Horns. Another 7-5 type season, and it could be sayonara for Brown in Austin.

Brown, however, believes this could be the season in which Texas again becomes a player on the national stage. Fifteen starters are back in the fold from a year ago when Brown began a reboot of the entire operation, importing high-profile new coordinators – Boise State’s Bryan Harsin as co-coordinator along with Major Applewhite for the offense, and Mississippi State’s Manny Diaz for the defense – to lead UT into a new period of prominence.

To get back to the promised land, however, Mack and Harsin have to stop the carousel of QBs who have given it a shot in Austin since the last days of the Colt McCoy era in 2009. The Texas QB situation has been a game of musical chairs the past two years, although the ranks have thinned somewhat now that Garrett Gilbert, who disappointed in his chance as McCoy’s replacement in 2010 and was beaten out by two frosh a year ago, decided to transfer, taking his act to SMU.

Those two frosh from a year ago, David Ash and Colt’s younger brother Case McCoy, are now sophs and hopefully beyond some of those growing pains from a year ago. Case McCoy’s late-season performance pattern was an indicator of the frustration; after beating Texas A&M in late November, McCoy had a meltdown in the regular-season finale vs. Baylor, guilty of five turnovers in a lopsided 48-24 loss.

After Case McCoy’s self-destruct act vs. the Bears, Brown named Ash to start the bowl game vs. Cal. Which the 'Horns won, and makes Ash the likely frontrunner for the starting spot heading into fall, although Mack made a point to not name a starter coming out of spring practice. Remember, Ash threw just four touchdown passes compared to eight picks last fall. The competition for the starting role remains open entering fall camp, and the possibility exists that Brown might again rotate his QBs.

If Mack can get the QB situation straightened out, then the Longhorns might get back into the BCS mix. The rest of the offense is loaded with playmakers, augmented by the arrival of true frosh RB Johnathan Gray (from Aledo, TX), rated by many as the top runner in all of the prep ranks last season. That only further deepens a crackling corps of RBs already featuring the likes of chop-busting soph Malcolm Brown, who rumbled for 742 YR last season against defenses that didn’t have to worry much about any Texas pass threat. Another soph, 230-lb. Joe Bergeron, is a punishing pile-driver who gained better than six yards per carry last fall.

Four starters also return along an offensive line that paved the way for Texas runners to gain better than 200 ypg in 2011, ranking a solid 21st nationally.

The receiving corps is also brimming with difference-makers, with all of the key targets returning from last season led by junior Mike Davis (45 catches in 2011), Jaxon Shipley (44 receptions last year) and deep threat Marquise Goodwin (33 catches LY). Another frosh, Kendall Sanders, is a speed burner who could make similar impact among the receivers as Gray might with the runners.

Now, who is going to get them the ball?

Meanwhile, Manny Diaz’ stop unit should be able to uphold its end of the bargain, with seven starters back from a platoon that ranked an impressive 11th nationally (allowing only 306 ypg) in total defense. Aside from letdowns vs. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor (by far the most-potent attacks the 'Horns faced in 2011), the Texas "D" was almost airtight a year ago.

The strength of the platoon probably lies in a fast-closing, hard-hitting secondary that returns all of its starters from a year ago. The cornerback combo of junior Carrington Byndom and Quandre Diggs might be the best corner-cover combo in the Big 12, if not the nation. Senior FS Kenny Vaccaro is on the radar screen of all NFL scouts. This unit helped the Longhorns to an impressive 17th ranking in third-down defense a year ago.

The platoon also ranked sixth in rush defense last season, and though two new DTs must be plugged into the starting lineup, returning DEs Jackson Jeffcoat (recovered from the torn pectoral muscle from last season) and Alex Okafor return after combining for 15 sacks a year ago.

If there are concerns within the stop unit, they’re at the LB spots, which took a couple of graduation hits. But another of Mack’s ballyhooed frosh, Dalton Sanders, could be ready to step in immediately at MLB. Junior outside backer Jordan Hicks is a steadying force who promises to assume a leadership role after making 51 tackles as a soph a year ago.

Another potential headache could be with the kicking game that was inconsistent a year ago. Brown might be counting upon a true frosh PK, Nick Jordan, to cure some of those ills this fall.

The schedule is made for a quick break, with Wyoming, Bob Davie’s rebuilding New Mexico and High Freeze’s rebuilding Ole Miss out of the blocks before things get significantly tougher in late September, beginning with a trip to Oklahoma State. Remember, it was at midseason a year ago when things began to unravel, as Texas faded after a quick 4-0 break from the gate.

Spread-wise, rest assured many Texas-exes are aware that Brown has been underachieving against the number the past few years, too. Indeed, Texas has covered only four of 13 at Austin since 2010, another number Mack is going to have to improve upon to get back into the good graces of the Longhorn support base.

Summary: Everything looks in place for a Longhorn renaissance. Well, everything except the QB position, and that’s a big one to be worried about entering the fall. Safe to say that the Texas season depends upon either David Ash or Case McCoy taking the reins at the position and delivering consistency and leadership. The supporting cast is strong enough that the 'Horns don’t need either to be Vince Young to make a serious run in the Big 12.

But if McCoy and Ash aren’t up to the task, and 2012 ends up looking a lot like 2011 (and Texas gets whipped by Oklahoma again), it could be nervous time for Mack Brown.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-21-2012, 05:41 PM

Independents Preview

July 9, 2012

With college football conference expansion filling much of the airways these days, and talk of a presidential election just around the corner, it's refreshing to find one college FBS affiliation that is not into all the rhetoric… at least for the time being.

That would be the Independents who, like the Libertarian party in the world of politics, love doing their own thing.

After increasing membership a whopping 25% when BYU declared its independence and joined Army, Navy and Notre Dame to form the FBS Independent 'fighting four' in 2011, the same members return in 2012.

Like last year when the Independents had a small say in the title picture, expect the fearsome foursome to have a say on the participants that will be invited to BCS bowl games this year as these Indy's take on a total of 23 opponents that landed bowl bids last season.

Rest assured, without a conference affiliation, this self-governing group holds plenty of veto power when it comes to dashing the dreams of many BCS Championship Game aspirants.

And when handicapping the chances of these four INDEPENDENTS this season, keep this thought in mind: Collectively this contingent has shone in games under their current head coaches when taking points (as underdogs), going 55-32 ATS (Against The Spread) combined, including 24-6 ATS against foes off a straight-up and pointspread loss, and 12-1 ATS as 'dogs against an opponent with a losing record - with 10 wins coming in straight up fashion.

As they like to say in this loop, regardless of how and whom you plan on voting this year it might serve you well to think as 'independently' as possible this fall, if you know what I mean.

Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated 'Play On' and 'Play Against' Best Bets follow each team's preview.

ARMY - (*6/8)
Team Theme: MEN OF STEEL

As outlined on this page last year, the Cadets were hit heavily with graduation losses in 2010 and were forced to play more freshmen than any team in the country last season. Fortunately, SR QB Trent Steelman is back behind center for the 4th straight season. He looks primed to enjoy one of the more prolific offensive seasons in academy history in 2011 while commanding an attack that returns its top seven rushers from a team that led the country overland last year. To succeed, however, the Black Knights will need to shore things up defensively with a unit that excites head coach Rich Ellerson. "It's a much more physically mature group. That bodes well for us."

Stat You Will Like: The Cadets are 1-17 SU versus service academies since 2003.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Air Force (11/3)

BYU - (*7/7)
Team Theme: THE LIFE OF RILEY

Little did Bronco Mendenhall realize when he was forced to switch QB's from Jake Heaps to backup Riley Nelson in Game Four of the season last year that Riley would finish the season as the nation's No. 16 ranked signal caller in passing efficiency. Riley returns for his senior season with a strong SR and JR class, including a pair of DL with three years of starting experience who are returning from missionary duty. Interestingly, they will open the season at home against former alum Mike Leach and his Washington State Cougars while also looking to avenge their worst series loss since 1922 to state rival Utah last season, a game which Riley watched mostly from the sidelines.

Stat You Will Like: The Cougars are one of only two schools in the nation to have both its football and basketball head coaches in the Top 10 in winning percentage among active coaches.

PLAY ON: at Utah (9/15)

NAVY - (4/8)
Team Theme: FIRST UP

After eight straight bowl seasons, the Academy was primed for another assault on the gridiron when the torpedoes jammed. After opening 2-0, a six-game losing skid kept them home for the holidays. To get back, they'll have to overcome a lot of 'firsts' in 2012: first game of the season in Dublin against the Irish (ND, that is), first meeting with Penn State since 1974 and a first time-ever in the Army series that a team would win 11 straight contests. It's no surprise that the disciplined Middies were the least penalized team in the land in 2011, nor will it be a surprise to see them take advantage of the nation's softest schedule in 2012. However, first things first!

Stat You Will Like: The Midshipmen were 5-0 SU when leading after the first quarter, and 0-7 SU when tied or trailing after the first quarter last year.

PLAY ON: at East Carolina (10/27)

NOTRE DAME - (*8/6)
Team Theme: FEAR NO EVIL

Give the Irish their due. They may still be an Independent refusing to align with a conference but by season's end, in three years under Brian Kelly, they will have squared off against 27 foes that participated in bowl games, including all six home opponents this year. Thus, it's no surprise to find five preseason Top 25 squads on the 2012 slate. If they can keep him out of jail, QB Tommy Rees will lead an experienced, high-powered attack that gained more than 500 yards on five occasions last year (though he figures to be pressed by prize recruit, Gunner Kiel). Now if only Kelly can conjure up some better halftime speeches (1-7 with Irish when trailing at the half)!

Stat You Will Like: The Irish will face opponents that complied an 86-55 ATS ledger last season, the 2nd best in the nation.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Michigan (9/22)

**StarDust Bum** · 07-21-2012, 05:43 PM

Pac-12 Preview

June 16, 2012

Oregon has won three straight championships in this conference, but the Ducks won’t be favored this season with USC back in the mix after two years of probation. The odds suggest it will be a two-team race, but a few other teams are capable of strong seasons and would be an upset away from making a run. Here is an early look at the Pac-12 North division and the odds for each of the six teams to capture the conference title.

California (+1000): After a pair of 10-win seasons in 2004 and 2006, it has been a disappointing run of mediocrity for the Bears, including three straight seasons with at least four conference losses. Last season, California finished just 4-5 in league play, but keep in mind they did not have a true home game all season with stadium renovation. This year, the Bears return just eleven starters, but there is decent depth on this squad and plenty of experience on in the key positions on offense. The schedule lines up with great difficulty as the two teams they miss will be Arizona and Colorado, likely two of the weaker teams from the South division and they will play on the road against USC, and Utah. They do get the big division games with Stanford, Washington, and Oregon at home and this is a squad capable of winning at least one of those games. The non-conference schedule features games with Nevada and Ohio State, but this Bears squad should be good enough to get back into the bowl picture and even show an improved record.

Oregon (+200): Losing Darron Thomas and LaMichael James from the incredibly productive Ducks attack leaves some question marks for this team, but Chip Kelly is 34-6 in his three years as head coach and he finally delivered a big win a the end of the year, taking out Wisconsin in a memorable Rose Bowl. Losing to LSU early in the season took some steam out of last season’s run after a championship game appearance the previous year and the Ducks did lose to USC in the regular season. Oregon will have to visit USC this season, but the rest of the schedule is incredibly favorable. Oregon will play just four road games all season and they get to host Washington and Stanford in big North division games. Oregon won by double-digits in every other conference game last season and they do not have to play UCLA or Utah, likely two of the better teams from the South division. Getting back to the Rose Bowl or even possibly the BCS championship game will likely require beating USC twice, but the Ducks have enough talent to replace its stars and deliver another excellent season.

Oregon State (+5500): If you are looking for a deep long shot to win the Pac-12 or at least the North division, Oregon State may fit the bill. Mike Riley has a great track record with the program, often exceeding expectations, but just about everything went wrong last year in a 3-9 season. Oregon State has 15 starters back, including QB Sean Mannion who completed nearly 65 percent of his passes as a freshman. The defense had only two returning starters last year and predictably struggled early in the year, but the Beavers should be greatly improved on the defensive side of the ball this season with six of the top seven tacklers from 2011 back. The schedule has some tough games with a non-conference match against Wisconsin but that game along with division games with California and Oregon will be at home in a historically difficult venue. The biggest break is being one of two teams in the conference that won’t have to play possible preseason #1 USC. All five road games for Oregon State will be challenging games, so this is not a team likely to run the table and come out on top of the division, but this is a team that can definitely double its win total from last season.

Stanford (+2000): A big drop is expected for Stanford after a great two-year run, going 23-3 the last two seasons, including 11-2 last year in the first year for coach David Shaw. Stanford draws a difficult conference schedule with road games at Washington, California, Oregon, and UCLA, but they do get to host USC at home early in the year. Stanford also has to play at Notre Dame, so a decrease in wins is very likely given the slate ahead and the transition at several key positions, notably QB. Stanford does have 13 starters back in action and the defense should be a strong point with a lot of experience back in action. The running game that the Cardinal is known for also brings back the top three rushers from 2011 and three starters on the offensive line. A tougher schedule will make Stanford the underdog in this division, but the Cardinal should still be a very competitive team that is only a few upsets away from a great season. While a third straight BCS bowl game may be a reach, another solid winning season should be in order for a team that appears to be slightly overlooked.

Washington (+850): On paper, it looks like Washington may be the team most likely to unseat Oregon in the North. The Huskies played the Ducks as well as just about anyone in the conference last year and this will be a fourth year for Coach Sarkisian with a program that has appeared to gain a bit of momentum each season, though with back-to-back 7-6 seasons the last two years. The lasting memory of 2011 is an ugly 67-56 loss in the Alamo Bowl where the defense allowed 777 yards, so this is a team that still has a lot of work to do. The offense lost Chris Polk, who rushed for over 1,500 yards and while Keith Price had a strong statistical year at QB last season, he was often in favorable situations in high-scoring games. The top two Washington receivers from a year ago are gone and finding a big improvement is tough with this schedule. Washington has to play at LSU in week two and also has a tricky opener with San Diego State. The conference schedule features a brutal opening slate facing Stanford, Oregon, and USC in three consecutive weeks and a possible 2-4 start could leave this team reeling. The schedule improves the rest of the way, but the Huskies have to play five conference road games and they won’t have any true home games this season due to stadium renovation. Washington could fall short of elevated expectations this season and may need a great late season run to even make a bowl game.

Washington State (+4000): Things are looking up in Pullman after a rough stretch. Paul Wulff was let go last season despite an improved 4-8 season and he deserves credit for helping to bring back a program that was a complete mess when he arrived in 2008, even though history won’t be kind with his 9-40 career record. In comes Mike Leach -- the brash ‘mad scientist’ that engineered high-scoring offenses at Texas Tech before the controversial fallout. Leach inherits a veteran team including senior QB Jeff Tuel and several experienced receivers. The defense greatly improved last season after a horrendous few years and Leach has enough to work with to keep the upward trend moving forward and possibly flirt with a bowl appearance in his first season. Washington State played two of its non-conference games on the road, which could be a challenge, but they do miss USC on the Pac-12 schedule. There are no easy games on the schedule in conference play and Washington State will need to win a few road games, something they’ve done three times in the last five years. This is a team that could go either way, as it could be a difficult transition season or things could come together quickly and the Cougars will be a challenging team for the rest of the conference to adjust to. Either way, it should be much more interesting in Pullman than in the past five years.

USC is back in the mix after two years of probation and the Trojans enter the season as clear Pac-12 favorites. The odds suggest it will be a two team race with Oregon, but a few other teams are capable of strong seasons and would be an upset away from making a run. Here is an early look at the Pac-12 South division and the odds for each of the six teams to capture the conference title.

Arizona (+3000): Despite his failure at Michigan, Rich Rodriguez was a desirable hire for Arizona as the Wildcats look to break a long run or mediocrity or worse. Mike Stoops was able to bring minor success to Tucson with three straight bowl seasons, but last year a brutal schedule derailed that run and he was shown the door. The Rodriguez offense could flourish in the Pac-12, however, as most defenses won’t be well prepared for it and there is a lot of talent in the program even with several notable players from last season moving on. Arizona does not have the greatest of schedules with a tough non-conference game with Oklahoma State early in the year and also having to open the conference season at Oregon while also playing at Stanford two weeks later. Arizona does get five home games in league play, but it could be a tough first half of the season for the Wildcats in the transition year. Arizona might be a year or two away from a breakthrough season, but this should be a play-on team late in the year and an improved record is certainly possible.

Arizona State (+4000): After the messy one-year tenure at Pittsburgh, Todd Graham bolted to Tempe, his fourth coaching stop in seven years. This was a team that greatly underachieved last season and throughout the five years for Dennis Erickson, outside of his first season. Only eight starters are back in action this season and the non-conference slate early in the year is fairly difficult with games with Illinois and at Missouri. The conference schedule features Oregon, but the Sun Devils will miss Stanford and Washington, two quality teams for a slight advantage. There will be new schemes on offense and defense and with limited experience back on the team, particularly on defense and among the receiving corps. It looks like a potentially challenging season for Arizona State and while getting back to a bowl game and a having similar .500-type season as the past two years is certainly a possibility, it could also get worse in the transition year. Other than USC, the division as a whole does not look that difficult however so there could be several coin flip games that could make or break the year.

Colorado (+8800): It was pretty clearly going to be a tough opening season for Coach Jon Embree at Colorado as the Buffaloes entered the Pac-12 last year. The schedule was incredibly difficult and there were not a lot of positives to work with from the previous administration. After just three wins last season, Colorado is capable of hitting that mark in the first four games of the season this year but the schedule stiffens, having to play USC, Oregon, and Stanford in consecutive weeks late in the season and featuring a very tough slate of home games in conference play. Colorado does get five home games in league play, but they will likely be dogged in all of them and there are only three returning starters on the offense. This was a team that was badly outscored and outgained last season and while there should be improvement with a slightly lighter schedule there were 28 seniors on last year’s team and that leadership void will be missed. The steep odds look appropriate in this case as Colorado could have another very tough season.

UCLA (+3800): The Rick Neuheisel era won’t be remembered fondly for UCLA, but the Bruins faced some brutal scheduling and also had to deal with a constant cycle of injuries at the QB position. Former Falcons and Seahawks coach Jim Mora, Jr. takes over the program and there will be 16 returning starters to work with including both of the QBs from last season. While the defense did not have good numbers last year, the Bruins will have eight of the top nine tacklers from last season back in action and this will be one of the most experienced team in the conference. UCLA also snags a great schedule within the conference with five home games including some of the toughest games with Utah, USC, and Stanford all visiting the Rose Bowl. From the North draw, UCLA does not have to play Oregon or Washington, a huge advantage over the rest of the division along with Utah who also misses Ducks. Challenging non-conference games at Rice, and at home with Nebraska and Houston could take a hit on the record, especially being early in the year in the transition season. It will be pretty tough to envision USC failing to win this division, but UCLA might have the next best shot with the experience returning and the favorable schedule.

USC (-200): With 16 starters returning from a 10-2 team and one of the Heisman favorites in QB Matt Barkley, USC will open the season as heavy favorites in the Pac-12 and one of the favorites to take home the national title. The Trojans will be tested early; having to play at Stanford in the third week of the season and the draw from the North division is very difficult with a game at Washington as well as home games against California and Oregon. Within the division, USC has to play on the road against the top competitors UCLA and Utah and non-conference games with Hawaii, Syracuse, and Notre Dame will make for a tougher set of games than most major conference teams will face. The talent on this team is undeniable with Barkley coming off a brilliant statistical season and WR Robert Woods catching 111 passes last year. The top three USC receivers return, along with the top RB and four of five on the offensive line, making this an absolutely loaded offense. The defense has talent and experience, but the unit underachieved last season and will remain the question mark if they are forced into shootouts like they were in both losses last season. Coach Lane Kiffin is also a bit unproven with a fairly pedestrian 25-13 record in three college seasons and few big game wins. USC deserves this pricing and while it will be a shock if the Trojans don’t win this division, going undefeated and beating Oregon potentially twice will be a tall order.

Utah (+3000): Utah could have earned the South division championship game spot by beating Colorado at the end of the year, but the Utes laid an absolute egg with a 17-14 loss at home as 22-point favorites, sending 6-6 UCLA to the conference championship game. USC being on probation was obviously the only reason the Utes had a chance, but they could be formidable this season. 8-5 was a step back for the Utah program, but considering the upgrade in competition in moving to the Pac-12, it was not a horrible result and this program has much more stability than most of the teams in the conference as Coach Whittingham enters his eighth season and this will be a veteran team with 16 returning starters. Utah also grabs a great schedule with Oregon and Stanford as the two teams absent. Not having to play the Ducks is a huge edge, although Utah will have to play five conference road games. Utah will get USC at home and off a bye week, so while it will take a big upset, the set-up is as good as could be asked for. The non-conference slate features games at rivals Utah State and at home against BYU and those won’t be easy games. Another similar solid, but not great season is the most likely result for Utah and they will be in the mix for a second place finish in this division and among the next in line if USC would somehow stumble.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-21-2012, 05:46 PM

C-USA Preview

June 30, 2012

With news of the new four-team playoffs now the talk of college football, it appears the evolution of the proposed 16-team league 'Super Conferences' is more up in the air than ever before.

One thing is certain: the BCS remains in tact through the 2013 season and, like it or not, it's their world and they still rule.

A misnomer commonly associated inside the bizarre-world of the BCS is that only six major conferences carry the handle of being a 'BCS conference'.

Actually there are 11 BCS conferences in all, six who qualify with automatic berths (AQ) into BCS bowl games for their conference champions, and five who do not (non-AQ). The current Conference USA being among the latter.

Despite its non-AQ status, the CUSA has more than held its own of late with 10 different teams from the conference participating in 40 bowl games over the last seven years. And they've held their own in these post-season affairs, going 18-22 SU and 19-20-1 ATS. Interestingly, in that span against .666 or greater bowl opponents the CUSA is 13-8 SU and 15-6 ATS, while just 5-14 SU and 4-14-1 ATS versus sub .666 foes. (Go figure.)

Houston's 13 wins tied LSU for most in FBS last season while the CUSA posted a sterling 4-1 bowl record in the 2011 campaign.

With talk of change looming just around the corner, the CUSA will lose Houston, Memphis, SMU and UCF to the Big East next season. Meanwhile they import Charlotte, FIU, Louisiana Tech, North Texas, Old Dominion and Texas-San Antonio in 2013 - although its unclear a this point which teams will be football member of the new-look CUSA. Hence, talks of merging with the Mountain West Conference have all but broken off.

If talk like this isn't dizzying enough, the loop welcomes five new head coaches in 2012 while breaking in six new starting quarterbacks as well.

Stepping outside the conference, members will take on 15 foes that finished in the Top 25 last season, including 18 games against foes from the Big10, the Big12 and the SEC. In head-to-head games against these three super conferences, the CUSA stands 45-187 SU and 97-124-5 ATS since they formed the conference, including a super-scary 2-110 SU and 33-77-2 ATS in game in which they fail to score 17 points.

Scarier, perhaps, is the fact many of the teams hanging on in this conference are uncertain which neighborhood league they will be calling home by the time the new NCAA Championship playoff format debuts in 2014.

Talk about sacrificial lambs.

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated 'Play On' and 'Play Against' Best Bets follow each team's preview.

EAST CAROLINA - (7/7)
Team Theme: OVER THE TOP

The Pirates witnessed an abundance of players (25) making their first-ever collegiate start last season, one more than the previous year. This forced-maturity, coupled with a roster featuring over 50% upper classmen, makes for exciting times in Greenville. The loss of QB Dominique Davis hurts but the return of WR Justin Hardy, the Pirates leading reception and yardage receiver in 2011, along with four starting offensive linemen, should aid an attack that slipped substantially in 2011. More importantly, a defense that was last in the loop in 2010 improved by 102.5 YPG after switching to a 3-4 formation and returns 70% of its production in 2012.

Stat You Will Like: The Pirates have appeared in seven bowl games since 2000, including five the last six years.

PLAY ON: vs. Marshall (11/23)

MARSHALL - (*8/5)
Team Theme: IN THE HERD

The Herd benefited last year from having played 28 freshmen in 2010 as they made it to - and won - a bowl game in Doc Holliday's second season in Huntington. They did it while facing the nation's 2nd strongest slate of non-BCS opposition, while squaring off against three ranked foes for the first time ever in one season. Unfortunately, they ride a 0-13 SU streak against ranked opposition heading into this season. The good doctor, however, will once again have QB Rakeem Cato as well as a defense that ranked in the Top 20 in tackles for loss, fumble recoveries, fourth-down and red-zone efficiency at his disposal. Hope you 'Herd' that.

Stat You Will Like: Marshall is 8-0 SU at home and 0-8 SU away versus teams hailing from the state of Texas.

PLAY AGAINST: at Rice (9/22)

MEMPHIS - (*9/8)
Team Theme: ALL SHOOK UP

After winning five games the last three years, the Memphis brass decided it was time to turn a Frog into a Tiger. New HC Justin Fuente arrives from TCU where he served as QB coach and co-offensive coordinator. In his three years at Fort Worth, the Frogs set single-season records for TD's, points scored and first downs. "Our players have to become more comfortable with how we do things… because it's going to be different from anything they have done before," contends Fuente. Fortunately, what won't be much different is an offensive line that returns four starters. However, the rest of the unit just may get a Memphis makeover.

Stat You Will Like: No wide receiver caught more than one touchdown for the Tigers last season.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. UAB (11/17)

SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI - (6/4)
Team Theme: AND THE BEAT GOES ON

When the Golden Eagles defeated Nevada in last year's Hawaii Bowl, it marked the first time in school history a Southern Miss team had won 12 games in the same season. In fact, the Eagles were a scant 9 points short of perfection. It also marked the end of a terrific four-year run by HC Larry Fedora, who takes his entire staff to Chapel Hill. Fear not, Eagles enthusiasts. New boss Ellis Johnson, the defensive coordinator at South Carolina the past four seasons, hits Hattiesburg with some strong pedigree himself, as former college head coaches Rickey Bustle and Tommy West head the offensive and defensive units, respectively.

Stat You Will Like: The Eagles have enjoyed a winning season each of the last 18 years. Only Florida, Florida State and Virginia Tech have more.

PLAY ON: vs. Marshall (10/20)

UAB - (*7/4)
Team Theme: BLAZING COLD

One of five new head coaches this season in C-USA - and only the fourth in UAB history - former Arkansas offensive coordinator Garrick McGee looks to halt a seven-year losing skid in Birmingham. QB Jonathan Perry is back after getting the starting nod midway through last season and leading the Blazers to their only three wins in 2011, but he'll have to operate behind an offensive line that loses four starters. A more inspired effort will be needed from a stop-unit that was torched for more than 500 yards on seven different occasions but it probably won't be enough as four of UAB's six road games are against bowlers. We don't see a quick cure for this seven-year itch.

Stat You Will Like: The Blazers' defense ranked dead last in the nation in sacks (8) last season.

PLAY AGAINST: at Southern Mississippi (11/3)

UCF - (6/8)
Team Theme: STORM'S A BREWING

Last year we lauded the talents of QB Jeffrey Godfrey and he promptly proceeded to lay an egg on our face (and his) when the pressure to perform on the field and in the classroom proved too much for the talented signal-caller to handle. After threatening to transfer, Godfrey agreed to rejoin the team as a receiver and part-time QB in UCF's version of a Wildcat package. Bigger news is the addition of Miami (Fla.) transfer Storm Johnson, a RB who made a huge impression in spring camp. QB Blake Borties is back after beating out Godfrey and topping C-USA in passing efficiency. Don't be (O)Leary - the Knights have enough weapons to return to the roundtable.
Stat You Will Like: The Knights tied Miami Florida for most losses (6) by eight or less points last season.

PLAY ON: vs. UAB (11/24)

West Division

HOUSTON - (5/6)
Team Theme: CASE CLOSED

After the final dust settled in last year's bowl games, C-USA finished with the best percentage of all conferences, posting a 4-1 mark. New HC Tony Levine did his part as he guided the Cougars to a win over Penn State in the Ticket City Bowl when Kevin Sumlin jumped ship knowing NCAA career passing yards leader Case Keenum's eligibility was about to run out. Sumlin did lead the Coogs to an unbeaten regular season but that was due to an incredibly soft schedule that featured only one foe with a winning record from the previous year. It looks like Levine may go 'ground' in 2012 as All C-USA RB Charles Sims (1,396 combined yards, 7.5 YPR) returns for his junior year.

Stat You Will Like: The Cougars are 1-19 SU and 3-17 ATS as dogs off back-to-back conference losses.

PLAY AGAINST: at UCLA (9/15)

RICE - (*5/5)
Team Theme: NO SNAP, CRACKLE OR POP

It seems like eons ago, but it has actually been only four years since the Owls recorded a 10-win season. They've gone 10-26 since, with one glaring common denominator over that span: a rotten defense. Sixth-year boss David Bailiff realizes his fanny is getting warm so he'll need to improve on the Owls' 467.5 YPG annual-yield since he's been on the Rice sidelines. Bailiff will count heavily on CB Bryce Callahan, whose six interceptions is tops among C-USA returnees. The keys to the offense will be given to QB Taylor McHargue but things won't change until the Owls wake up on the road and improve on a 1-17 SU and 5-13 ATS mark since 2009.

Stat You Will Like: Under Bailiff, the Owls are 2-15 ATS versus opponents off back-to-back wins, including 0-11 ATS away

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. SMU (11/17) - *KEY off win

SMU (3/7)
Team Theme: TOUGH TO FACE

On the heels of seven-plus wins over the last three years for the first time since 1982-1984, the Mustangs made their biggest score when HC June Jones stayed put in Dallas rather than jump ship for Arizona State. QB J.J. McDermott has graduated and Kyle Padron has transferred, opening the door for former Texas starter Garrett Gilbert. RB Zach Line returns off a pair of 1,000-yard rushing efforts, as does star WR Darius Johnson - the MVP in each of the Ponies' last two bowl games. However, if an offensive line is truly the 'face of the team', then SMU is faceless as the trenches must be rebuilt. One ray of light is a defense that has improved each and every year under Jones.

Stat You Will Like: June Jones is 5-0 ATS as a dog of less than 20 points versus undefeated opposition.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Texas A&M (9/15) - *KEY if A&M is undefeated

TULANE - (*7/7)
Team Theme: C.J. TO THE RESCUE

After nine straight losing seasons, including the last five in a row under Bob Toledo, the Green Wave placed a 911 call to New Orleans native Curtis 'C.J.' Johnson and he responded. Johnson brings 25 years of coaching experience, along with some pretty nice hardware: a Super Bowl trophy during his stint with the Saints and a national championship ring as an assistant at Miami Florida. And though a glossy resume won't win games, it's a good start towards recovery. So, too, is the return of senior QB Ryan Griffin, who has started 30 games the last three seasons, and RB Orleans Darkwa, who has rushed for 1,849 yards in 17 career starts.

Stat You Will Like: Five of the Green Wave's final six games are versus foes that finished the 2011 season with a losing record.

PLAY ON: at Memphis (11/10)

TULSA - (6/7)
Team Theme: CATEGORY 8

The eight wins registered by Bill Blankenship in his first year at the Tulsa helm was really no surprise considering the Hurricane has logged eight or more wins in six of the last seven seasons since exiting the WAC in 2005. Blankenship's biggest challenge in 2012 will be replacing all-conference QB G.J. Kinne and the entire left side of an OL that has started 83 games over the past four seasons. 6'4", 245-lb. Nebraska transfer Cody Green won the starting QB job in spring camp and he'll be joined by a pair of backs who each rushed for more than 800 yards in 2011 and a set of receivers who each reeled in more than 850 yards. With an easier slate, is eight enough in 2012?

Stat You Will Like: Tulsa faced the toughest strength of schedule of all non-BCS teams last year.

PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite at Iowa State (9/1)

UTEP - (*7/4)
Team Theme: THE PRICE IS NOT RIGHT

Six in a row… and counting. That's how many consecutive losing seasons the Miners have encountered under Mike Price after he was inked to a contract extension in 2005 following back-to-back bowl appearances. What seems like eons ago actually is if you apply a dose of daily math to the numbers - meaning it's been 2,190 days since UTEP last struck bowl gold. The good news is the top three tacklers are back from last year's defense. The bad news: all three starting LB's depart meaning the secondary will be busier than usual. With Price's contract up at the end of the year, can you say, "Come on down… you're the next coach in the unemployment line."

Stat You Will Like: Price is 43-83 SU and 41-82 ATS from Game Seven out in his career.

PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Tulane (10/20)

**StarDust Bum** · 07-21-2012, 05:48 PM

MAC Preview

July 16, 2012

In the battlefield of conference shuffling and expansion gone wild, Temple is old news and Massachusetts is new in the 2012 MID AMERICAN CONFERENCE.

And while the Minutemen will not be eligible to play in the MAC title game or a bowl contest this season, UMass is thrilled to be transitioning into the FBS wars this campaign.

Entering its 66th year of gridiron competition, the MID AMERICAN CONFERENCE will once again play a balanced schedule, meaning each team will play eight conference games in 2012.

Here's hoping the ledger is more balanced than its been the last three years when only five teams in the MAC West Division managed to finish the season with a winning record. This on the heels of the 2008 campaign when only Buffalo was on the plus side of the ledger inside the East Division.

Sixteen players from the MAC dotted Super Bowl rosters last year, 15 the year before. That was more than the Pac 12 and the Big East, with only the SEC, the Big 10 and the ACC accounting for players in the big game than the MAC. The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the most success using the MAC as a fertile breeding ground. Two-time Super Bowl champion quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (Miami, OH) and league defensive MVP James Harrison (Kent State) each hail from the MAC.

This is definitely a league that is wide open and one that likes to mix things up. Nine different teams have appeared in the last seven MAC Championship games while 12 different MAC schools have appeared in a bowl game in the last eight seasons.

And speaking of bowls, keep this note handy once the bowl games roll around: after going 3-13 SU and 2-13-1 ATS in bowl games from since the 2008 calendar year, the MAC went 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS as bowlers last season.

Amazingly, when traveling as favorites on the non-conference road the lightweight MAC is a staunch 17-8-1 ATS laying points, including 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS versus foes without a win on the season.

All of which reminds us that when it comes to backing teams with the dichotic tendencies of those that reside in the MAC, it should be served with one of our favorite warning notices: caveat emptor… let the buyer beware!

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated 'Play On' and 'Play Against' Best Bets follow each team's preview.

East Division

AKRON - (*7/6)
Team Theme: T-BOWING

After suffering 1-11 blowout seasons the last two years, the Rubbermakers changed tires, replacing Ron Ianello with Terry Bowden - from the same dadgum Bowden coaching clan we've learned to love in the past. The first order of work for coach T-Bow, who led Northern Alabama to three consecutive Division II appearances the last three seasons, will be to improve a rush offense that has averaged less than 120 RYPG each of the last three seasons. Good news is the Zips will host only one foe that had a winning season last year. That's a good thing considering they are 1-17 SU and 3-14-1 ATS away versus greater than .400 MAC foes of late. That and the fact there are only 65 scholarship players dotting this year's roster.

Stat You Will Like: Bowden is 15-2 SU and 11-6 ATS in lined games versus losing teams.

PLAY ON: at Tennessee (9/22)

BOWLING GREEN - (*8/10)
Team Theme: WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES

Last year the Falcons featured 81 players that were either sophomores or younger (including 33 of 53 players on the two-deep roster) and were coming off a 2-win campaign in 2010. This year they return 18 starters from unit that improved by 3 wins while gaining 90 YPG on offense, 23 YPG on defense, 6 PPG on scoring offense and 5 PPG on scoring defense. Further examination finds 9 of the top 10 linemen, the top 4 linebackers and all 5 secondary starters back from a 4-2-5 defense. For head coach Dave Clawson, it's that magical combination where youth turns to experience in one fell swoop. Behind veteran QB Matt Schilz, the Falcons look to soar in 2012.

Stat You Will Like: The Falcons are 7-3 SU and ATS away during the regular season from Game Nine out the last five years.

PLAY ON: vs. Kent State (11/17) - *KEY off BB losses

BUFFALO - (8/8)
Team Theme: THIS IS OUR TIME

While most teams would be fear-stricken looking to find a replacement for a graduated quarterback who immeasurably improved a marshmallow offense last season, coach Jeff Quinn instead remains the antithesis of panic. "I think this is our most talented group of QB's since I've been in Buffalo," says Quinn. "We have players who we all feel can help us win football games, each with their own unique talents." It certainly doesn't hurt knowing that QB Jerry Davis, who started 8 games in 2010, is among that group. After averaging more than 30 PPG at home last year, the Bulls will assuredly rely on new DC Lou Tepper, who won over 100 games as a head coach at Illinois.

Stat You Will Like: The Bulls are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as conference home favorites.

PLAY AGAINST: at Northern Illinois (10/13)

KENT STATE - (*9/9)
Team Theme: BREAK ON THROUGH TO THE OTHER SIDE

The Golden Flashes finished 5-7 in Darrell Hazell's first year as head coach, the third straight season they finished with that record. Kent hasn't finished above .500 since 2001 but Hazell believes his team made progress in 2011. After starting the season 1-6 and 0-3 in MAC play, the Flashes won four straight and had a chance to become bowl eligible before a season-ending loss at Temple. The first priority in 2012 is to play disciplined (76 penalties) and that should be the case as 18 starters, led by three-year starting QB Spencer Keith (6,041 passing yards/33 TD's) return to Dix Field. 'Flash' Back to 2001: The Golden Ones return to the winner's circle.

Stat You Will Like: The Flashes are 3-35 SU and 8-28-2 ATS in games against opponents off a win of more than 20 points.

PLAY ON: at Miami Ohio (11/10)

MIAMI OH - (*8/7)
Team Theme: A CHANGE OF FORTUNE

Things looked promising, on paper at least, for first-year HC and Miami grad Don Treadwell when he signed on last season. He inherited a 10-win team with 17 returning starters that witnessed the largest turnaround in FBS history from the previous year. With four losses by 7 points or less, Treadwell quickly found out how the law of averages works. With a wealth of experience in the trenches, a two-headed QB attack, a slew of skill-position returnees and one of the best mid-major 'D' lines in the country, things could once again turn around in a hurry in Oxford. With Temple gone, look for the 'Hawks to feast on the East in 2012.

Stat You Will Like: Last year the RedHawks had 13 total seniors. This year's team may have as many as 13 senior starters.

PLAY ON: at Ohio State (9/1)

OHIO UNIVERSITY - (*6/8)
Team Theme: BOBBING FOR MORE APPLES

How important was having all five offensive linemen back for OU last season? A 3-0 start for the first time since 1976, a 10-win season for the first time since 1968 and a first-ever bowl victory says it all. Through it all, QB Tyler Tettleton developed into arguably the top performer in the league. He's back along with all three of those aforementioned interior linemen, making the defending MAC East champs, once again, the team to beat. Squaring off at home against five FBS foes that failed to post a winning record last year helps, too. After being the MAC apple last season, let's just hope there is enough ATS value to nibble on this year.

Stat You Will Like: The Bobcats are 20-4 SU and 18-6 ATS versus .250 or less opponent under Solich.

PASS

UMASS (*6/9)
Team Theme: JUST A MINUTE

It didn't even take UMass a minute to say yes to a step up in class when the MAC came calling. Unfortunately, new HC Charley Molnar and new DC Phil Elmassian will need a lot more than a minute to repair a rush defense that was manhandled by FCS opposition last year, including a whopping 386 yards allowed on the ground to James Madison in a season-ending 34-17 loss. Molnar realizes his team will be outclassed early on. "We are playing a 1-A schedule with 1-AA players," said the former Notre Dame offensive coordinator. They will be also playing all of their home games at Gillette Stadium this year and next. No 'minute to win it' at Amherst this season.

Stat You Will Like: The Minutemen will not be eligible for the MAC championship and bowl participation until 2013.

PASS

West Division

BALL STATE - (*8/5)
Team Theme: LEMBO IN LIMBO

Despite a defense that went backwards 112 yards a game, Pete Lembo led the Cardinals to 6 wins in his first season on the sidelines in Muncie. It's a defense that has declined each of the last three years in a row, allowing season-high yards in four of its final five games. "We are very young and inexperienced at safety. The defensive line is another position where we graduated some seniors. So, again, we will be young and inexperienced. We need to improve across the board." On the flip side, JR QB Keith Wenning, who has started 22 games, directs a no-huddle offense that went 185 passes with no picks until the Oklahoma game last season.

Stat You Will Like: The Cardinals allowed only 11 sacks last season, which tied for 12th best in the nation.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Eastern Michigan (8/30)

CENTRAL MICHIGAN - (*9/8)
Team Theme: GREEN ENVY

For the second year in a row the Chips went green, with 24 players making their first career start, including 10 true freshmen. Add that to the 19 who made their college debut the previous season and suddenly third-year HC Dan Enos has a 'Pleasant' nucleus forming in 2012. SR QB Ryan Radcliffe, who has started 24 straight games and ranked in the Top 20 in the nation in passing yards each of the past three seasons, leads the attack and will be protected by an offensive line that returns six players with starting experience. We love 17-returning starter squads who were 1-10 ATS the previous year. Remember - what goes down can come up!

Stat You Will Like: The Chippewas will play seven home games this season for only the 3rd time in modern history.

PLAY ON: vs. Ball State (10/20)

EASTERN MICHIGAN - (*9/5)
Team Theme: ENGLISH MAJOR

The MAC daddy's of Michigan (beat CMU and WMU) haven't hit the alleys since 1987 but dual-threat QB Alex Gillett (3,100 yds passing, 1,500 yds rushing) had them knocking on the door last season. And with nine returning starters back on offense, 2012 just may find them 'scoring' high marks with bowl officials. Thanks to a 'D' that improved by an inconceivable 20 points and 105 YPG, Ron English garnered MAC Coach of the Year honors as his Eagles won six games - one more than the previous three seasons combined. To top it off, 21 players who made their collegiate debut in 2011 should make the Eagles 'Major' MAC players again.

Stat You Will Like: The Eagles have rushed for more than 2,000 yards in each of the past two seasons.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Central Michigan (11/10)

NORTHERN ILLINOIS - (4/11)
Team Theme: LEAD DOGS

After guiding NIU to its first MAC title in 28 years, it appeared coach Dave Doeren was headed to Kansas. Then Charlie Weis came along and Doeren returns to the sidelines in DeKalb for a second straight season. That's a good thing for the defending MAC champs who will be looking to rebuild an offense that was decimated by graduation, including conference player of the year, QB Chandler Harnisch. The good news is new DC Mike Dunbar inherits a stop-unit that remains intact, including a pair of former starting LB's who missed all of last season. And with only three winning teams on the docket, the Huskies may, once again, be best in show.

Stat You Will Like: The Huskies are 5-2 SU and 6-0-1 ATS as conference home dogs since 2001.

PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite at Ball State (10/6)

TOLEDO - (*4/5)
Team Theme: MMM, MMM, GOOD

After a three-year stay at Toledo in which the Rockets improved their win total every year - concluding in bowl appearances the last two - head coach Tim Beckman will be playing with the Big boys in the Big Ten (Illinois) this season. Enter Matt Campbell, offensive coordinator under Beckman the past three seasons. Campbell engineered an exciting 42-41 victory over Air Force in last year's Military Bowl and inherits a squad that appears short on returning starters. However, Campbell insists, "One thing we have been able to do here is play a lot of kids, whether as starters or in critical situations. We have a wealth of experience." Alright, we'll go to the 'Matt' with him.

Stat You Will Like: 32-year old Campbell is the youngest FBS coach by more than three years.

PLAY ON: at Northern Illinois (11/14)

WESTERN MICHIGAN - (*7/8)
Team Theme: CUBIT'S REVENGE

We're guessing word out of the MAC this spring was either super secretive, or delivered by Pony Express, as the conference was slow releasing their spring prospectuses. One thing we know for sure is that 15 starters are back in Kalamazoo from last year's bowl squad, led by QB Alex Carder (tossed for 3,873 yards in 2011, including five 400-yard efforts). The question remains, though, will HC Bill Cubit be able to repair a defense that ranked 12th in the MAC last year and was ripped for 804 yards in a loss to Toledo? With only three teams that owned a winning record last year dotting this season's schedule, we say 'yes' as Cubit improves on his healthy 34-21 conference mark.

Stat You Will Like: The Broncos are 2-12-1 ATS versus an opponent off an ATS win of 15 or more points under Cubit, including 0-7-1 ATS if the foe is .500 or greater.

PLAY ON: vs. Toledo (9/29)

Announcement

The Bum's Preview of CFB Teams 2012 !

The Bum's Preview of CFB Teams 2012 !

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