Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 07-20-2012, 05:17 PM

LA Angels Return Home To Face Rival Rangers

The Los Angeles Angels hope to get some Southern California home cooking against AL West rival Texas Rangers in a huge weekend series.

The first game comes Friday at 10:05 p.m. (ET) and it’s the Angels’ Jered Weaver against the Rangers’ Derek Holland. Los Angeles is a $1.45 favorite on the Don Best odds screen with a total of 7½ (shaded to the ‘under.’)

Let’s begin with a look at the lefty Holland. He’s 6-4 with a 4.57 ERA, but is rounding into form after dealing with a stomach virus and shoulder fatigue. The mustached man looked very good in his only outing after the All-Star break, throwing 7 2/3 scoreless innings (four hits) at Seattle last Friday.

Holland will have had six days off between starts with Texas not playing both Monday and Thursday. He has nine career starts against the Angels and three relief appearances for a combined 5-3 (ERA around 5.00).

The 25-year-old has been much better on the road this year at 4-1 with a 2.58 ERA. The numbers in Arlington, Texas are surprising at just 2-3 with a 6.38 ERA.

Don Best Sports analyst Pat Williams knows that Holland will be facing a different Angels offense with the ‘T&T’ combination of Mike Trout and Mark Trumbo. These guys are both inspiring the other to do great things and Los Angeles is capable of making a run in the AL West even sitting six games back of Texas.

The Angels know this is a huge series for them, especially playing at home. They’re 25-18 there this year, but a more productive 9-4 in the last 13, winning all four series over the Diamondbacks, Giants, Dodgers and Orioles.

Weaver (11-1, 2.26 ERA) is having a great season despite missing time with a back ailment. He had his worst start of the season at Texas on May 13, a huge eight runs allowed over just 3 1/3 innings. He’ll be looking for revenge on Friday.

The 29-year-old right-hander has some gaudy numbers otherwise, including 6-0 with a 0.58 ERA at the Big A in Anaheim (Angels going 7-0). The offense has also shown up when Weaver pitches at home, an average margin of victory of 4.71 runs. Don Best’s Williams thinks the Angels could be an interesting run-line play.

Note these division rivals have met for a pair of 3-game series this season with the home team going 2-1 each time. The Angels won seven of the 10 played in Anaheim last season.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-20-2012, 05:19 PM

Around the Horn - Friday

July 19, 2012

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Atlanta at Washington - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Hanson (10-5, 4.02 ERA) 50-41 11-2 on Fridays
Strasburg (10-4, 2.66 ERA) 53-37 OVER 8-2 L10 home Game 1's

San Francisco at Philadelphia - 7:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Lincecum (3-10, 5.93 ERA) 51-41 11-5 as 'dog away off loss
Worley (5-5, 3.47 ERA) 41-52 2-9 L11 home off loss

Miami at Pittsburgh - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Nolasco (8-7, 4.47 ERA) 44-48 7-4 L11 away Game 1's
Correia (6-6, 4.25 ERA) 51-40 13-4 L17 home off win

Milwaukee at Cincinnati - 7:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Estrada (0-3, 4.13 ERA) 44-47 UNDER 7-0 L7 away Game 1's
Bailey (8-6, 3.93 ERA) 52-40 6-1 L7 on Fridays

Los Angeles at N.Y. Mets - 7:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Harang (6-5, 3.53 ERA) 49-44 1-5 L6 away Game 1's
Santana (6-6, 3.59 ERA) 47-45 OVER 8-1 L9 home Game 1's

Chicago at St. Louis - 8:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Dempster (5-3, 1.86 ERA) 38-53 4-11 away off win
Lohse (9-2, 2.80 ERA) 47-45 7-3 L10 home off loss

Houston at Arizona - 9:40 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Norris (5-7, 4.70 ERA) 34-58 1-5 L6 away Game 1's
Cahill (7-8, 3.71 ERA) 44-48 9-3 L12 on Fridays

Colorado at San Diego - 10:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Pomeranz (1-4, 3.79 ERA) 35-56 UNDER 7-2 away vs RHP
Marquis (2-5, 3.62 ERA) 38-55 5-10 home vs LHP

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Baltimore at Cleveland - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Gonzalez (1-1, 2.59 ERA) 48-44 1-7 L8 away Game 1's
Lowe (8-7, 4.43 ERA) 47-45 12-6 L18 home vs RHP

Chicago at Detroit - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Peavy (7-6, 3.12 ERA) 50-41 7-3 L10 on Fridays
Verlander (10-5, 2.43 ERA) 49-44 5-1 L6 home off win

Toronto at Boston - 7:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Laffey (1-1, 3.38 ERA) 45-47 UNDER 6-1 L7 away vs RHP
Beckett (5-7, 4.44 ERA) 47-45 2-5 L7 home Game 1's

Seattle at Tampa Bay - 7:15 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Iwakuma (1-2, 5.13 ERA) 40-54 1-8 L9 away off win
Shields (8-6, 4.44 ERA) 48-45 3-7 L10 home Game 1's

Minnesota at Kansas City - 8:15 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Blackburn (4-5, 8.10 ERA) 38-54 8-3 L11 away off loss
Hochevar (6-8, 5.16 ERA) 39-52 4-11 on Fridays

Texas at Los Angeles - 10:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Holland (6-4, 4.57 ERA) 55-36 10-5 away Game 1's
Weaver (11-1, 2.26 ERA) 50-43 UNDER 10-4 home vs LHP

N.Y. Yankees at Oakland - 10:05 PM EST (Game 2/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Nova (10-4, 4.18 ERA) 57-34 11-5 away vs LHP
Milone (9-6, 3.54 ERA) 47-44 13-2 L15 home vs RHP

**StarDust Bum** · 07-20-2012, 05:21 PM

Diamond Trends - Friday

July 20, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Rangers are 10-0 since June 28, 2011 when playing a night game when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher after playing in a day game for a net profit of $1010.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Blue Jays are 0-9-1 OU since May 03, 2011 when playing a night game as a road dog after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $900 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Rangers are 11-0-1 OU since May 07, 2011 when Derek Holland starts after a quality start on the road for a net profit of $1100 when playing the over.

BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- Derek Holland has produced a team record of 13-1 (5.7 rpg) since 2011 when pitching the first game of a series if he faced less than 34 batters last game.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Cardinals are 9-0 since May 18, 2011 when Kyle Lohse starts as a home 140+ favorite vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $900.

-- The Royals are 7-0 since July 03, 2011 when Luke Hochevar starts in July for a net profit of $940.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-20-2012, 05:23 PM

Pitchers' duel expected in Detroit Friday night

CHICAGO WHITE SOX (50-42)

at DETROIT TIGERS (49-44)

First pitch: Friday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -175, Chicago +165, Total: 7½

The Tigers, winners of 10 of the last 12, will look to continue their surge in the AL Central as they host the Chicago White Sox for the opener of a three-game set on Friday night.

Reigning AL Cy Young Award winner and MVP Justin Verlander takes the hill for the Tigers, setting them as heavy favorites in this one. Verlander has been spectacular all season with a 2.43 ERA and 0.93 WHIP, but has been even better in his past two starts, allowing just one run and seven hits in 17 innings. Jake Peavy will oppose him in this one after getting clobbered in his first start after the All-Star break, yielding six earned runs on 12 hits in seven innings to the Royals. Still, Peavy is also putting together a stellar season in which he has a 3.12 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, with that ERA dropping to 2.95 on the road. With Verlander on the mound, the Tigers should be expected to win any game, but the White Sox are savvy road opponents with a 26-20 (.565) away split. And Verlander has never quite figured out how to dominate the White Sox despite 25 career starts against them, sporting a mediocre 12-10 record (team is 13-12) and 4.13 ERA against them in those outings. Take a calculated risk on the big money and choose CHICAGO to cool down the Tigers, who are an unimpressive 25-21 at home this year.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the White Sox:

Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CHICAGO WHITE SOX) - excellent fielding team - averaging <=0.5 errors/game on the season, after 2 straight games with no home runs. (148-111 over the last 5 seasons.) (57.1%, +79.2 units. Rating = 3*).

Losers of four of their past six contests, the White Sox could really use a win to right the ship here. The bad news is they’ve scored just one run in three of their past four games, but that was against a surging AL East foe, a difficult task for Chicago this year. AL Central opponents, on the other hand, have been much easier, with the White Sox tallying a 19-13 (.594) mark against them, splitting their eight games so far with Detroit. Peavy is 3-2 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in eight starts versus the Tigers in his career, with three of those starts coming in 2012. Although they hit him hard on May 15 (5.1 IP, 9 H, 6 ER), Peavy tossed two quality starts before that (3.14 ERA, 14 K, 2 BB), posting a personal 1-0 record. If Peavy does get into trouble, the Chicago bullpen has been more effective on the road this season with a 3.42 ERA and 1.19 WHIP away from home.

The Tigers have faced Peavy three times in 2012 but the White Sox have yet to see Justin Verlander. He has won his past three starts against Chicago, despite giving up three home runs in that span. Verlander has pitched well enough to give Detroit 10 wins in their past 11 meetings with Chicago when he takes the hill, but he allowed 3+ runs in five of those starts. The Tigers have given him plenty of run support in this span too, scoring 5+ runs in eight of these 11 Verlander outings. An interesting nugget with this year’s Detroit squad is its paltry 23-28 (.451) in night games. Not that the bullpen gets much work when Verlander takes the hill (7.4 IP per start), but if he does get into trouble (4 HR allowed in past three starts), the Tigers relievers have been excellent at Comerica Park this year with a 3.25 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-20-2012, 05:27 PM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, July 20

Hot pitchers
-- Strasburg is 5-3, 2.87 in his last eight starts.
-- Nolasco is 2-1, 2.88 in his last four starts. Correia is 4-0, 4.45 in his last five starts; Pirates scored 35 runs in those five games.
-- Worley is 1-1, 3.32 in his last three home starts.
-- Bailey is 3-0, 3.18 in his last three starts.
-- Dempster is 5-0, 0.00 (33 IP) in his last five starts. Lohse is 3-0, 2.36 in his last five outings.

-- MGonzalez is 1-1, 2.84 in his two starts this season.
-- Verlander is 5-1, 2.30 in his last six starts.
-- Milone is 5-1, 1.20 in seven home starts this season.
-- Weaver is 5-0, 1.56 since coming off the DL. Holland is 2-0, 2.84 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Hanson has a 5.87 RA in his last five starts.
-- Lincecum is 1-2, 5.82 in his last four starts, and he didn't allow a run in two of those four starts.
-- Estrada is 0-3, 4.72 in nine starts this season.
-- Harang is 1-2, 4.91 in his last five starts. JSantana is 0-2, 12.10 in his last couple starts.
-- Cahill is 1-3, 6.17 in his last four starts.
-- Norris is 0-5, 5.08 in his last five starts.
-- Pomeranz is 1-3, 3.98 in his last four starts. Marquis is 1-3, 5.93 in his last five starts.

-- Lowe is 1-4, 7.43 in his last seven starts.
-- Peavy is 1-5, 3.45 in his last six starts.
-- Beckett has a 5.82 RA in three starts since coming off the DL. Laffey is 1-1, 4.30 in four starts this season.
-- Iwakuma is 0-1, 6.30 in two starts this season. Shields is 1-2, 6.18 in his last six starts.
-- Blackburn has an 8.64 RA in his last five starts. Hochevar is 1-1, 5.62 in his last three starts.
-- Nova is 1-2, 7.00 in his last three starts.

Hot Teams
-- Washington won 12 of its last 19 games. Braves won eight of their last ten games.
-- Pirates won nine of their last eleven home games.
-- San Francisco won five of its last six games. Philly won four of last five.
-- Cubs won six of their last seven games.
-- Milwaukee won five of its last seven games. Reds are 11-5 in their last 16 home games.
-- Arizona won its last three home games, allowing seven runs.
-- Padres won five of their last six games.

-- Indians won seven of their last ten home games.
-- Detroit won nine of its last eleven games.
-- A's won ten of their last twelve games. Bronx won eight of its last eleven.
-- Rangers won five of their last seven games.

Cold Teams
-- Mets lost six of their last seven games. Dodgers lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Miami lost four of its last five road games.
-- Cardinals lost five of their last six games.
-- Astros lost 16 of their last 17 road games.
-- Colorado lost four of its last five games.

-- Orioles lost six of their last nine games.
-- White Sox lost three of their last four games.
-- Red Sox are 5-8 in their last 13 games. Toronto lost seven of last ten.
-- Tampa Bay is 8-12 in its last 20 games. Seattle lost seven of eleven.
-- Twins lost eight of their last eleven games. Royals lost eight of their last nine games.
-- Angels lost five of their last seven games.

Totals
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Washington games.
-- Five of last seven Pirate home games went over the total.
-- Five of Philly's last seven games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 12-2-1 in last fifteen Cincinnati home games.
-- Five of last six Dodger road games stayed under total.
-- Last five St Louis games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Arizona games.
-- Seven of last ten games at Petco Park stayed under the total.

-- Under is 6-2-2 in Baltimore's last ten games.
-- Under is 16-8-1 in last 25 White Sox games.
-- Six of last nine Boston games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Minnesota games went over the total.
-- Under is 15-7 in last twenty-two Seattle games.
-- Nine of last ten Oakland home games stayed under.
-- 12 of last 14 Texas games stayed under the total.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-20-2012, 05:38 PM

MLB

Friday, July 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Baltimore - 7:05 PM ET Cleveland -131 500
Cleveland - Under 9 500

Atlanta - 7:05 PM ET Atlanta +138 500
Washington - Under 7 500

Miami - 7:05 PM ET Pittsburgh -103 500
Pittsburgh - Under 8.5 500

San Francisco - 7:05 PM ET San Francisco +121 500
Philadelphia - Under 8.5 500

Chi. White Sox - 7:05 PM ET Chi. White Sox +161 500
Detroit - Over 7.5 500

Toronto - 7:10 PM ET Toronto +162 500
Boston - Over 9.5 500

Seattle - 7:10 PM ET Tampa Bay -175 500
Tampa Bay - Under 8 500

LA Dodgers - 7:10 PM ET NY Mets -142 500
NY Mets - Over 7.5 500

Milwaukee - 7:10 PM ET Cincinnati -134 500
Cincinnati - Under 9 500

Minnesota - 8:10 PM ET Minnesota +133 500
Kansas City - Over 9.5 500

Chi. Cubs - 8:15 PM ET Chi. Cubs +136 500
St. Louis - Over 8.5 500

Houston - 9:40 PM ET Arizona -188 500
Arizona - Under 9 500

NY Yankees - 10:05 PM ET Oakland +115 500
Oakland - Under 7.5 500

Texas - 10:05 PM ET LA Angels -146 500
LA Angels - Under 7.5 500

Colorado - 10:05 PM ET San Diego -103 500
San Diego - Under 7 500

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