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**StarDust Bum** · 07-19-2012, 10:11 AM

Diamond Trends - Thursday

July 19, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Indians are 0-14 since April 19, 2011 as a dog when they are off a game in which they scored more runs off the bullpen than they did off their opponent’s starter for a net profit of $1400 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Royals are 0-13 OU since July 30, 2011 as a 140+ dog after scoring 6+ runs in a night game for a net profit of $1300 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Red Sox are 0-10-1 OU since June 26, 2010 when Clay Buchholz starts after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $1000 when playing the under.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Angels are 17-1 (2.3 rpg) since August 6, 2008 with a total between 7 and 10, facing a starter with an ERA under 9.00 after a game where they had three or less hits.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Rays are 0-7 since August 23, 2009 when David Price starts as a home favorite after winning as a home favorite in his last start for a net profit of $1045 when playing against.

-- The Reds are 6-0 since April 16, 2011 when Mike Leake starts as a home favorite when the team is seeking immediate revenge for a loss as a favorite for a net profit of $600.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-19-2012, 10:19 AM

Buehrle & Marlins Close Series At Chicago Cubs

Ozzie Guillen and Mark Buehrle know plenty about Wrigley Field from interleague series against the Cubs while both were together on the Windy City's South Side. They hope to repeat some of that success Thursday when the Marlins draw their 3-game set in Chicago to a close.

A clash of southpaws is slated for the 2:20 p.m. (ET) start at the friendly confines as the Cubs will send Paul Maholm to the mound against Buehrle. Opening numbers on the Don Best odds screen listed the Marlins -120; as with all games at Wrigley, the official total won't be released until Thursday morning.

The Marlins could be looking to get back to .500 on Thursday, that is if all goes well in Wednesday's second game of the series which was still pending. Miami was $1.20 chalk behind Josh Johnson opposite Chicago's Jeff Samardzija. Thunderstorms were in the forecast for the evening tilt, along with winds gusting to 20 mph coming in from left field which were driving a 7½-run total.

Miami grabbed the opener on Tuesday by a 9-5 count, cashing as a 115 favorite and the final going beyond the 9½-run mark. It was the first 'over' in a Marlins game since July 4, a span of eight games that included a pair of 'pushes.' The victory left the Fish 44-46 (-8.8 units) and nine games behind the NL East-leading Washington Nationals.

Buehrle will be out to extend his win streak to five straight starts when he hits the bump. The veteran lefty has posted quality efforts in six of his last seven assignments, and beat the Cubs in Miami on April 18, his first dubya in a Marlins jersey, with eight innings of 6-hit, 1-run ball. He has also done well over his career vs. the Cubs with Buehrle's April outing his fifth straight appearance against the North Siders that ended in their defeat.

There has been a little bit of an issue on the road for Buehrle this year. He is carrying a 3.81 ERA away from Miami (2.62 at home), and both he and the Marlins are 3-5 in the eight contests.

While Buehrle has fared well over the years against the Cubs, Maholm hasn't been so fortunate when facing the Marlins. The port-sider out of Mississippi State was probably thankful to have missed the Fish when the clubs met in Miami as he holds a 5.67 ERA in eight career starts dating to his days in the Pittsburgh rotation.

Maholm has won his last three starts, however, with two of those off the hill at Wrigley where he has pitched very well overall in 2012. The Cubs are 6-3 in his nine home assignments with Maholm sporting a 3.02 ERA compared to more than twice that when away from the Windy City (6.15).

Miami swept the set in South Beach where the 'over' cashed twice along with one 'push.' Tuesday's triumph gave the Marlins a 6-game win streak in the series, none of those games finishing 'under' the total.

We expect to see Ron Kulpa behind the mask Thursday afternoon, and he brings an 11-8 'under' lean into the game, though three of the last four have skipped above the total. The current forecast calls for a 50 percent chance of rain and WNW winds up to 15 mph (LF across to RF).

**StarDust Bum** · 07-19-2012, 10:22 AM

Red Sox And White Sox Finish At Fenway

Major League Baseball action on Thursday has eight day games versus just three at night. The Boston Red Sox hosting the Chicago White Sox is the marquee matchup in the latter category.

This is a good pitching duel with Clay Buchholz for the home team against Chicago rookie Jose Quintana. Action gets underway at 7:10 p.m. (ET) on the MLB Network and Boston is a $1.35 favorite with a total of 10½ runs.

This is also the finale of an exciting four-game series. Boston started things off with a win on Monday (5-1) before the Pale Hose got even on Tuesday (7-5). The Wednesday night result was still pending at press time. The Red Sox were solid 170 favorites in a game Don Best previewed previously, and the mound matchup pitted Boston's Felix Doubront against White Sox rookie Pedro Hernandez who was making his major league debut.

Quintana (4-1, 2.60 ERA) is a big reason why Chicago has vaulted to the top of the AL Central, currently 3.5-games ahead of Detroit. He hadn’t pitched higher than Double-A before being called up in May, but he’s doing a good job keeping his walk totals down. He’s also done well with men-on-base.

The 23-year-old lefty is 2-0 with a 3.48 road ERA this season, but has a 9.00 ERA in his last two away starts at the Yankees and Kansas City. The White Sox did win those two contests, scoring 23 total runs, and are 4-0 in his last four starts overall.

Boston has had some bad luck this year and Buchholz (8-3, 5.54 ERA) is a prime example. He had a great June at 4-0 with a 2.40 ERA, but then went on the disabled list with a throat ailment.

The 27-year-old right-hander has made one start since coming back, surrendering four earned runs over 6 1/3 innings at Tampa Bay last Saturday (5-3 loss). This is his first start against the White Sox this year after going 1-1 with a 5.09 ERA against them in three starts from 2009-2011.

Buchholz will need to control White Sox third baseman Kevin Youkilis. He made his former team pay in a big way with four hits over the first two games of the series. That includes a three-run homer off Jon Lester on Tuesday that broke the game open.

The Red Sox did get two outfielders back from injury recently in Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford. The problem is that Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz are both on the DL. The lineup looks very dangerous on paper once everyone is healthy, but that is delayed for now.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-19-2012, 10:25 AM

Pedroia set to return for Boston Thursday

CHICAGO WHITE SOX (50-41)

at BOSTON RED SOX (47-45)

First pitch: Thursday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -125, Chicago +115, Total: 10½

The White Sox will look to salvage a split of their four-game set with the Red Sox, who won with a commanding 10-1 victory on Wednesday night, and get former MVP Dustin Pedroia back in their lineup.

The surprising 23-year-old Jose Quintana takes the mound for Chicago in this one, sporting a 2.89 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in nine starts this season. His team is 7-2 in his nine starts of 2012, but two of his past three starts have been rough, with a 5.68 ERA in those outings. The Royals and Yankees were the teams that tattooed him, though he was able to shut down one of baseball’s most potent offenses in the Rangers two starts ago, yielding just one run on two hits with eight strikeouts in eight innings of work. He faces Clay Buchholz, who has a 5.54 ERA in 15 starts in 2012, despite an 8-3 record. Long balls have been a major problem for him, yielding one per start, including 11 in eight home outings. The White Sox are fourth in the majors with 109 home runs this year. The Red Sox are fifth with 108, but could be limited by Quintana, who induces groundballs and limits base-runners with just 11 walks in 56 innings. Play on CHICAGO to earn the series split here.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the White Sox:

Play Against - Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (BOSTON) - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%, starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings. (85-67 since 1997.) (55.9%, +52.6 units. Rating = 3*).

The White Sox have been a surprisingly strong team on the road with a 26-19 record (.578), which is better than their home record of 24-22. Part of their success on the road is due to their bullpen’s performance there, where it has a 3.20 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Furthermore the White Sox are an impressive 7-2 at Fenway Park over the past three seasons, although Quintana has never faced the Red Sox in his career. Chicago is 4-1 in Quintana’s five road starts this season despite his pedestrian away numbers of 4.18 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.

The Red Sox lineup will look different Thursday with DH David Ortiz (Achilles) heading to the DL, but 2B Dustin Pedroia (thumb) is set to return. Pedroia is an important addition, but Ortiz, who leads the team in BA (.316), HR (23), RBI (58), runs (65) and OPS (1.024), will be a major loss for the highest-scoring offense in baseball this season. But Boston was just fine without its lone All-Star on Wednesday, especially OF Cody Ross who hit a pair of three-run homers, and 1B Adrian Gonzalez who had four RBI, and is 7-for-12 in this series. The Red Sox will need to keep their bats hot considering Buchholz has a 1-2 record, 6.53 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four career starts versus the White Sox. Luckily for him, the Boston bullpen and its 2.99 ERA and 1.16 WHIP is certainly capable of bailing him out of serious trouble.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-19-2012, 10:31 AM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, July 19

Hot pitchers
-- Leake is 1-1, 2.19 in his last five starts.
-- GGonzalez is 4-1, 4.34 in his last five starts.
-- Buehrle is 4-0, 0.94 in his last four starts. Maholm is 3-0, 0.84 in his last three outings.
-- Harrell is 1-1, 2.42 in his last four starts. San Diego won Volquez' last four starts (2-0, 2.55).

-- Price is 4-0, 2.78 in his last five starts.
-- Scherzer is 3-1, 2.81 in his last five starts.
-- FHernandez is 3-0, 1.40 in his last six starts.
-- Quintana is 3-0, 2.90 in his last six starts.
-- Oakland is 3-1 when Griffin starts (1-0, 2.63). FGarcia is 2-0, 3.18 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Bumgarner is 2-3, 5.84 in his last seven road starts. Hudson is 1-1, 5.29 in his last three starts.
-- Saunders is 1-3, 4.38 in his last four starts.
-- Dickey has a 5.19 RA in his last four starts.

-- Jimenez is 1-3, 6.95 in his last four starts.
-- JWilliams is 0-4, 8.34 in his last four starts.
-- WChen is 0-3, 5.34 in his last five starts. De Vries has a 5.09 RA in his last four starts.
-- Hochevar is 1-1, 5.63 in his last three starts.
-- Buchholz has a 6.57 RA in his last couple starts.

Hot Teams
-- Washington won 12 of its last 18 games.
-- Braves won seven of their last nine games. San Francisco won its last five games.
-- Cubs won five of their last six games.
-- Reds are 10-5 in their last fifteen home games.
-- Padres won four of their last five games.

-- Bronx won eight of its last ten games.
-- White Sox won 12 of their last 17 games.
-- Indians are 9-6 in their last fifteen games.
-- Detroit won eight of its last ten games.
-- A's won nine of their last eleven games.

Cold Teams
-- Mets lost their last six games, allowing 37 runs.
-- Arizona lost ten of its last fourteen road games.
-- Miami lost three of its last four home games.
-- Astros lost 15 of their last 16 road games.

-- Angels lost five of their last seven road games.
-- Red Sox lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Tampa Bay is 7-12 in its last 19 games, 7-11 in last eighteen at home.
-- Twins lost seven of their last ten games. Baltimore lost six of seven.
-- Royals lost seven of their last eight games. Seattle lost seven of ten.

Totals
-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Washington games.
-- Under is 12-2-1 in last fifteen Cincinnati home games.
-- Four of last five Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven games at Wrigley Field stayed under.
-- Six of last nine games at Petco Park stayed under the total.

-- Over is 12-2-1 in Angels' last fifteen road games.
-- Six of last eight Boston games went over the total.
-- Under is 14-6-2 in Cleveland's last 22 road games.
-- Five of last six Minnesota games went over the total.
-- Under is 14-7 in last twenty-one Seattle games.
-- Eight of last nine Oakland home games stayed under.

Umpires
-- NY-Wsh-- Five of last seven Conroy games went over the total.
-- Az-Cin-- Under is 11-6 in Vanover games this season.
-- SF-Atl-- Five of last six Foster games stayed under total.
-- Mia-Chi-- Underdogs are 7-6 in last thirteen Kulpa games.
-- Hst-SD-- Road team won even of nine LBarrett games.

-- LA-Det-- Under is 6-2-1 in West's last nine games behind plate.
-- Chi-Bos-- 12 of last 15 Schrieber games went over the total.
-- Clev-TB-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Bucknor games.
-- Balt-Min-- Seven of last eight Marquez games stayed under total.
-- Sea-KC-- Seven of last ten Dimuro games stayed under total.
-- NY-A's-- Don't know who umpires are for this series.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-19-2012, 10:46 AM

MLB

Thursday, July 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cleveland - 12:10 PM ET Tampa Bay -174 500
Tampa Bay - Over 7.5 500

San Francisco - 12:10 PM ET San Francisco +110 500
Atlanta - Under 8 500

NY Mets - 12:35 PM ET Washington -130 500
Washington - Under 7.5 500

Arizona - 12:35 PM ET Arizona +118 500
Cincinnati - Over 9 500

LA Angels - 1:05 PM ET Detroit -148 500
Detroit - Over 9.5 500

Baltimore - 1:10 PM ET Baltimore -108 500
Minnesota - Under 9 500

Seattle - 2:10 PM ET Seattle -118 500
Kansas City -

Miami - 2:20 PM ET Chi. Cubs +110 500
Chi. Cubs -

Chi. White Sox - 7:10 PM ET Boston -138 500
Boston - Over 10.5 500

NY Yankees - 10:05 PM ET Oakland +108 500 Oakland - Under 7.5 500

Houston - 10:05 PM ET San Diego -148 500
San Diego - Over 6 500

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