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**StarDust Bum** · 07-16-2012, 07:05 PM

Weekly Betting Notes

July 16, 2012

If you go through the bio’s of some of the top sports book directors throughout Las Vegas history, you’ll notice that quite a few of them hail from the steel city of Pittsburgh, PA. Legends like Jack Franzi, Art Manteris, Bert Osborne, and Jimmy Vaccaro all made their way to Las Vegas and were instrumental in shaping the way we all now know the modern sports book operation to be.

One of the newer additions to the Pittsburgh lineup making his mark in Las Vegas is Cantor Gaming’s sports book director Mike Colbert, who hails from the Scott Township, South Park area of Pittsburgh. While his chain of beautiful sports books may not fare the best if his Pittsburgh Pirates win the World Series, it’s a bitter-sweet trade off that Colbert wouldn’t be overly disappointed about.

“I‘m extremely excited about the Pirates thus far,” said Colbert. “It’s been a long time since they been this good and it brings up memories of all the good times in the early 90’s, not just of winning the NL East three straight years, but also the good times of going to about 30 games a year with my Grandpa.”

It certainly has been a long time for the Pirates. Try 19 years of futility that has not only seen them miss the playoffs each year, but also have a losing record, the longest stretch of continually losing in MLB history. As we near the end of July, the Pirates are currently 10 games above .500 and are one game out of first-place behind the Reds.

But Colbert isn’t very optimistic, perhaps trying not to be overly excited in anticipation of a failure occurring to lessen the disappointment.

“Look, this is the best team they’ve had since those (Barry) Bonds years when he choked in all three of those playoff series, but they were in first-place near the end of July last year and still finished with a losing record.

“They have a good young team and it looks like the team is committed to the future and winning by having their star player, Andrew McCutchen, bottled up, which is something we haven’t seen the Pirates ever do in the modern age of baseball, but I don’t think they’ll be able to top the Reds in the division. I hope they can, but I don’t realistically see it happening.”

This season there is an added dimension like never seen before with an additional wild card team making the playoffs. Pittsburgh is currently tied with the Braves at the top of the list, two games above the Dodgers.

“I’d be very surprised if the Pirates got one of those wild card sports,” said Colbert.

Despite the Pirates failures last season that saw them finish 72-90, this year's version looks a little more prepared for a good run due to veteran leadership, some experience from last year's run and most of all, better pitching. You can’t put a value on the veteran presence of playoff tested players like A.J. Burnett, Casey McGehee, and Rod Barajas. They also have McCutchen on an MVP run playing better than anyone in baseball, yes, better than even Mike Trout.

If the Pirates did somehow make the playoffs and then win the World Series, Colbert says his books would lose, but it’s only the fourth-worst scenario for the house.

“We opened the Pirates at 150-to-1, but had lowered the odds as they got on their run and before 150-to-1 found any real takers, and we‘ve been steady at 30-to-1 on them for a while.

“The teams that do the most damage are the Dodgers, Nationals, and Mets. We had the Dodgers at 30-to-1 to start the season and they reeled off all those early wins and had people excited. The Nationals were 50-to-1 and the Mets were 100-to-1.“

Despite possible losses just under six figures if the Pirates win it all, you can bet that Colbert will still be silently rooting for his Battling Bucs.

The Amazing Ben Sheets
Who needs Brandon Beachy when the Braves can pull two gems out of no where and turn them into superstars? First, we saw a magical transformation in Jair Jurrjens and now we have Ben Sheets throwing six scoreless innings Sunday against the Mets. Sheets hadn’t pitched since 2010 and was coming off Tommy John surgery. He only pitched 10 innings of Double-A ball prior to Sunday, but looked as sharp and crisp as he did when he was one of the best pitchers in baseball during the 2000’s.

Red Hot
The Pirates have continued to smoke the ball and lead baseball in runs scored (65), total bases (194) home runs (17) and batting average (.315) in the month of July through Sunday. Yes, the Lumber company has definitely been revived. The charge has been led by Andrew McCutchen (.514) and Neil Walker (.474).

The Cubs couldn’t give Alfonso Soriano’s big contract away two months ago, even if agreeing to pay most or all of his $18 million salary. But no one has been a bigger power source over the last two months, which now gives Theo Epstein some leverage as the trade deadline approaches. Soriano has hit 17 home runs since May 15 and could be a nice fit for a contending team, most likely an American League team because his defense would make any NL defense worse.

Another Cubs player that will find plenty of suitors around both leagues is Ryan Dempster, who started off the season as a tough luck loser, but is now hotter than any pitcher in baseball. Despite an ERA of 2.14 through May 25, the Cubs had a 1-7 record behind him. Since then, the Cubs have reeled off six straight wins with Dempster on the mound and he hasn’t allowed a run in his past five starts bumping his record to 5-3. His next start will be at St. Louis Friday against Kyle Lohse.

Even though the Marlins aren’t hitting the ball, Mark Buehrle is doing exactly what the Marlins paid him to do, stop losing streaks and win games. He’s won his last four starts allowing a combined three runs over 28 2/3 innings.

Braves closer Craig Kimbrel gave up a run on June 28 in a non-save situation that ended a streak of 17 straight games/innings without a run. Over that stretch, he only allowed three hits. He’s now on a stretch of six straight games without allowing a run and has converted all five save opportunities while surrendering only one hit. At the same time, the Braves have won seven games in a row heading into Monday’s games making them almost the hottest team in baseball.

That distinction goes to the Oakland A’s who have won nine of their past 10 games through Sunday allowing only 18 runs in the nine wins. The offense has come alive and look like a recreation of the movie ’Moneyball’. Billy Beane is doing it again with players at bargain basement prices ($55 Million, 2nd lowest) and has the team three games over .500 and eight games out of first. We’ll see what they’re made off this week at home with a two-game series against first-place Texas and the first-place Yankees for four. Mark me down for Jarrod Parker against Phil Hughes on Saturday.

Cooled Off
On Sunday, the Pirates finally lost a game that A.J. Burnett started, ending a streak of 12 straight wins. Yankees starter Ivan Nova was once the rock of stability giving the Yankees a virtual guarantee of winning the last two seasons, but the Yankees have lost three of his past four starts. The Astros are in a terrible tail spin that has seen them drop 13 of their past 14 games through Sunday. Their last two game win streak came on June 27. Believe it or not, the feared lineup of the Rangers have scored the fewest runs (20) of all MLB teams in July while hitting .228. Even the Astros have scored 26 runs.

Ice Cold
Mario Mendoza spent two seasons with the Seattle Mariners and is most famous for his name bearing the dubious distinction of poor hitting called ’The Mendoza line’, meaning a player’s batting average is under .200. For the month of July, the Mariners squad was collectively batting an MLB worst .198 through Sunday, the same average of Mendoza’s during the 1979 season.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-16-2012, 07:07 PM

Diamond Trends - Monday

July 16, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Indians are 0-10 since May 30, 2011 as a road dog when they blew a lead in their starter’s last start and lost while he pitched for more than five innings for a net profit of $1000 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Marlins are 0-9-1 OU since August 06, 2011 within 20 cents of pickem when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $900 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Orioles are 0-11 since August 03, 2009 when Chris Tillman starts as a dog after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Indians are 14-1 OU (5.3 ppg) in database history following a game where they had between 27 and 35 at bats and faced no more than 27 batters.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Pirates are 0-9 OU since April 28, 2011 when Jeff Karstens starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $900 when playing the under.

-- The Reds are 0-8 OU since May 07, 2011 when Bronson Arroyo starts as a favorite after the team won their last two games for a net profit of $800 when playing the under.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-16-2012, 07:09 PM

Sizzling Tigers host Angels on Monday

LOS ANGELES ANGELS (49-40)

at DETROIT TIGERS (46-43)

First pitch: Monday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -115, Los Angeles +105, Total: 10

The surging Tigers, who are 7-1 since Independence Day, will look to stay hot as they host the Angels for the opener of a four-game set on Monday night.

Starting for Los Angeles is Ervin Santana, who has struggled mightily this season with a 5.75 ERA and 1.37 WHIP that balloons to a 7.45 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in nine road starts. In his last outing, he did not make it out of the second inning, allowing eight earned runs on six hits and three walks in a 12-3 loss to Cleveland. Rick Porcello has also been subpar this year with a 4.47 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Although he has a 2.16 ERA in his past three starts, he did not make it out of the fourth in his last start, allowing three earned runs on 12 hits in 3.2 innings. Porcello is good at limiting walks (24 BB in 96.2 IP), but has given up 128 hits, tied for the third-most in baseball. And Porcello will be playing a dangerous game with his contact-inducing style, facing a lineup that has hit 10 home runs with a .548 slugging percentage over the course of its past four games. The Tigers have also shown nothing against AL West foes this season, notching a 5-12 mark so far in 2012. Take underdog LOS ANGELES to win this game on the road.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also supports the Angels:

Play Against - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (DETROIT) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, starting an over-rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest. (42-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (70%, +24.1 units. Rating = 3*).

The Angels avoided a sweep Sunday with a 10-8 win over the Yankees. Santana will look to build upon that facing an opponent he has handled pretty easily in the past. Although he has not faced the Tigers since 2009, he is 6-2 against them in his career with a 3.57 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. He’s won four straight starts versus Detroit, allowing a total of two runs with 15 K’s and just three walks in his past two outings covering 16 innings. Even if Santana struggles to pile up innings, failing to complete six innings in six of his past eight starts, the Angels bullpen has been solid this year with a 3.36 ERA and 201 K’s in 236 innings.

The Tigers may also need to depend on its strong bullpen in this game. Detroit relievers have a 3.62 ERA in 2012, a mark that drops to 3.05 at home. While Porcello has a 3-1 record against the Angels in his career (team is 4-1), that record does not come with good statistics—he has a 5.97 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. He did do well his last time against them last July however, going eight innings allowing two runs, five hits, zero walks and six strikeouts. The Angels and Tigers have not played yet this season, but the Tigers hold a slight 9-8 advantage in this series over the last three years, which includes a 6-4 mark at home.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-16-2012, 07:12 PM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, July 16

Hot pitchers
-- Arroyo is 1-0, 1.99 in his last three starts.
-- Fiers is 2-1, 0.96 in his last four starts.
-- Francis is 2-1, 2.72 in his last five starts. Karstens is 2-0, 1.20 in his last couple starts.
-- KWells has a 2.07 RA in his last couple starts.

-- Scherzer is 2-0, 2.16 in his last three starts.
-- Cook is 2-1, 2.70 in his last three starts.
-- Diamond is 2-0, 2.74 in his last three starts. Tillman won his first '12 start, allowing one run in 8.1 IP.
-- Vargas is 1-0, 1.52 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Jackson has a 6.43 RA in his last four starts. Zambrano is 0-4, 9.00 in his last six starts.
-- Miley is 0-2, 10.12 in his last couple starts.
-- Lynn is 1-2, 6.75 in his last four road starts.
-- Happ is 2-6, 5.98 in his last eight starts.
-- Blanton is 1-2, 5.81 in his last four starts. Eovaldi is 1-3, 4.72 in his last six.

-- ESantana is 0-2, 10.05 in his last three starts.
-- Hughes is 2-2, 4.56 in his last four starts. Alvarez is 2-5, 6.56 in his last ten starts.
-- Axelrod is 0-1, 7.11 in five starts this season.
-- Cobb is 1-2, 7.45 in his last three starts. McAllister has a 5.32 RA in seven starts, but Indians won five of seven.
-- JSanchez is 0-3, 7.48 in his last five starts.

Hot Teams
-- Washington won 10 of its last 15 games. Marlins won five of their last seven home games.
-- Reds won nine of their last twelve home games.
-- Milwaukee is 12-6 in its last 18 home games.
-- Pirates won 11 of their last 15 games.

-- Bronx won six of its last eight games.
-- White Sox won 11 of their last 15 games.
-- Indians are 8-5 in their last thirteen games.
-- Detroit won seven of its last eight games.
-- Kansas City won four of its last five home games.

Cold Teams
-- Arizona lost nine of its last eleven road games.
-- Cardinals lost their last four road games, scoring ten runs.
-- Rockies lost 12 of their last 16 home games.
-- Dodgers lost 17 of their last 23 games. Philadelphia lost 11 of its last 14.
-- San Diego lost four of their last six games. Astros lost their last 13 games on foreign soil.

-- Angels lost four of their last five road games.
-- Blue Jays lost four of their last five road games.
-- Red Sox lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Tampa Bay is 6-11 in its last 17 games, 6-10 in last sixteen at home.
-- Twins lost seven of their last eight games. Baltimore lost four of five.
-- Mariners lost six of their last eight games.

Totals
-- Under is 8-2-1 in last ten Miami home games.
-- Ten of last twelve Cincinnati home games stayed under.
-- Over is 24-6 in last 30 games at Miller Park.
-- Six of last nine games at Coors Field went over the total.
-- Five of last six games at Petco Park stayed under the total.
-- Six of last nine Dodger games stayed under the total.

-- Ten of Angels' last twelve road games went over total.
-- Four of last five Bronx Bomber games went over total.
-- Four of last five Boston games went over the total.
-- Under is 12-5-2 in Cleveland's last nineteen road games.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Baltimore games.
-- Five of last seven Seattle games stayed under the total.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-16-2012, 07:20 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
07/15/12 14-*14-*0 50.00% -*135 Detail
07/14/12 17-*13-*0 56.67% +*1590 Detail
07/13/12 15-*13-*2 53.57% +*455 Detail
07/08/12 18-*11-*1 62.07% +*3810 Detail
07/07/12 16-*13-*1 55.17% +*1155 Detail
07/06/12 17-*13-*0 56.67% +*1390 Detail
07/05/12 5-*15-*0 25.00% -*6175 Detail
07/04/12 16-*12-*0 57.14% +*2300 Detail
07/03/12 12-*18-*0 40.00% -*3155 Detail
07/02/12 13-*11-*0 54.17% +*305 Detail
07/01/12 13-*15-*1 46.43% -*860 Detail
Totals 156-*148-*5 51.32% +680

Monday, July 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Toronto - 7:05 PM ET Toronto +162 500
NY Yankees - Under 10.5 500

LA Angels - 7:05 PM ET Detroit -116 500
Detroit - Under 10 500

Chi. White Sox - 7:10 PM ET Boston -124 500
Boston - Over 11 500

Cleveland - 7:10 PM ET Tampa Bay -120 500
Tampa Bay - Over 8.5 500

Washington - 7:10 PM ET Miami +100 500
Miami - Over 8 500

Arizona - 7:10 PM ET Cincinnati -131 500
Cincinnati - Under 8.5 500

Baltimore - 8:10 PM ET Baltimore +120 500
Minnesota - Over 8.5 500

Seattle - 8:10 PM ET Kansas City -103 500
Kansas City - Under 9 500

St. Louis - 8:10 PM ET Milwaukee -106 500
Milwaukee - Over 8.5 500

Pittsburgh - 8:40 PM ET Pittsburgh +110 500
Colorado - Over 10.5 500

Houston - 10:05 PM ET Houston +113 500
San Diego - Over 7 500

Philadelphia - 10:10 PM ET Philadelphia -108 500
LA Dodgers - Over 7.5 500

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