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**StarDust Bum** · 07-15-2012, 11:43 AM

Sunday's MLB Notes

July 15, 2012

St. Louis at Cincinnati (ESPN, 8:05 p.m. ET)

After losing four of the first five regular season meetings against the Cardinals, the Reds have won three straight in this head-to-head series, including both battles this weekend. Fortunately for St. Louis, the Reds' ace Johnny Cueto was scratched from this start due to a blister on his pitching hand. Instead, Cincinnati will hand the ball to Homer Bailey (7-6, 4.14 ERA) tonight as the team goes for the three-game home sweep.

The Reds have gone 9-8 in Bailey's appearances this season, which includes a 7-2 mark at home. He's received an average of six runs per game from his offense, which includes 14 in the last two games, both victories. Playing at home has been difficult for Bailey lately, as he's surrendered 17 earned runs in his last four appearances at Great American Ball Park.

St. Louis will counter with Jake Westbrook (7-7, 3.75 ERA), who closed the first-half of the season with a 3-2 loss to the Marlins on July 6 but the Cardinals had won all four of his previous starts. During this five-game span, Westbrook has gone six innings or more in each of the appearances and only gave up 10 earned runs. His ERA has been better on the road (2.94) than at home (4.53) but St. Louis only managed to go 4-4 in his eight appearances. Unfortunately for the Cardinals and Westbrook, the run support (3.6) outside of Busch Stadium hasn't been there for him. When you combine the weak offensive numbers and Westbrook's production on the road, you can see why the 'under' has produced a 5-2 mark.

Even though the pitching numbers point to Westbrook and the Cardinals, the Reds opened as short home favorites (-120) for Sunday's finale.

The total opened at nine runs. Bailey has seen the 'over' go 10-6 on the season, 6-3 at home. The 'under' has gone 5-2-1 in the first eight meetings this season between the pair.

Sunday's Sweeps

The below teams have won the first two games of their series this weekend and will try to finish off the three-game sweep today.

Cubs over Diamondbacks - Arizona swept a four-game set from Chicago in mid-June so we could be seeing a revenge sweep here for the Cubs. The D-Backs have scored one run in each of the first two games and will face the inconsistent Matt Garza (4-7, 4.32 ERA) this afternoon.

Braves over Mets - New York will have Johan Santana squaring off against Atlanta's Ben Sheets, who hasn't pitched in the majors since 2010. Sheets went 0-1 with a 5.06 ERA in two starts at the Double-A level before being called up.

Reds over Cardinals - See Above

Yankees over Angels - Los Angeles has to be happy with Jered Weaver on the hill and bettors can grab him at a real short price (-105). The Yankees will toss Ivan Nova, who's been tough to beat but he's only pitched three times (1-2, 4.67 ERA) at home this season.

A's over Twins - Minnesota will be trying to avoid the sweep at home and it could be difficult with the way Brian Duensing (1-5, 4.11 ERA) has been pitching. Plus, Oakland's offense is hot lately. They've posted 15 runs the last two outings against the Twins.

Sunday's Best & Worst

The below records are for Sunday:

Best
Arizona : 10-4
Cincinnati: 10-4
Detroit: 11-3
N.Y. Yankees: 10-3
Tampa Bay: 11-4
Texas: 11-3

Worst
Colorado: 3-11
Philadelphia: 3-12

VI Expert Samples

These are some of the games are VegasInsider.com handicappers are playing today. Check out all of their pro baseball selections here!

Ed Meyer - Houston Astros

The Giants are in a soft spot, giving the Astros plenty of line value here. We'll grab the big dog. In Norris' last start, he went seven innings and allowed two runs, but the 'Stros lost 2-0. This is actually a fine spot to invest in Bud Norris as Houston is 5-0 in franchise history as a road 170+ dog with Norris when they lost his last start. Matt Cain is also off a fine outing in which his team lost, as the bullpen allowed three runs in a 6-5 loss in Washington. One can certainly theorize that Matt Cain will be out to "avenge" the team loss in his last start, but the results tell a completely different story. The Giants are a surprising 12-30 with Matt Cain when he went at more than five innings and gave up six or fewer hits in his last start but the Giants lost nonetheless. San Francisco simply does not have the killer instinct in this spot. The Giants are a soft 2-8 as a 150-plus home favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games including 0-4 if they are a favorite of more than 170. Norris has the potential to throw a gem and the Giants will be looking ahead to their road trip.

Houston 4 San Francisco 3

Stephen Nover - Over 7.5 Dodgers/Padres

Jason Marquis and Chad Billingsley are not dependable starters. Both are in bad form, too. They are paired here with a total of less than 8 1/2. That puts me in action on the over. Marquis is 0-4 with a 4.60 ERA in his last five starts. His ERA is 6.23 in his last three starts. Marquis doesn't have a good recent history when pitching at Dodger Stadium either with a 5.79 ERA in his last three outings there. The Dodgers are much more dangerous with Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier back in the lineup. Kemp is batting .444 in his last 14 games against the Padres and Ethier is hitting .484 in his last nine home games versus San Diego. Billingsley is 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA in his last three starts. He has a 6.21 ERA during his past five starts. The Padres are much stronger offensively away from Petco Park.

Vince Akins - St. Louis

For the Cardinals, this is almost a must win game. A loss means they fall at least 4 games back of two teams in the NL Central and that's a lot of ground to start making up. Look for St. Louis to salvage one game here. This is the final game of a three game set win Cincinnati looking to sweep. The Cardinals are 26-8 since April 13, 2011 when playing a night game and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $1952. Also the Cardinals are 7-3 in their last 10 games when looking to avoid a three-game sweep. Cincinnati meanwhile is just 7-11 when going for the three-game sweep. Cincinnati won a nail bitter yesterday, 3-2, in 10 innings. Both teams had plenty of chances with Cincinnati leaving 18 on base individually and St. Louis stranding 22. The Reds are 11-26 since April 07, 2011 after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $1733 when playing against. Cincinnati was able to overcome a 5-1 differential in walks in that game. The Reds are 4-12 since April 07, 2011 after a win in which they allowed 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $961 when playing against. Jake Westbrook goes for St. Louis. They lost in his last start to Miami, 3-2, after holding an early lead. The Cardinals are 6-0 since April 13, 2011 when Jake Westbrook starts when he is off a start in which their team scored first and lost for a net profit of $665. Homer Bailey goes for Cincinnati after winning his last two starts. The Cardinals are 6-0 since April 13, 2011 when Jake Westbrook starts on the road vs a team that won their starters last two starts for a net profit of $695. However, he is going to be asked to pick up the bullpen today after Cincinnati used six pitches yesterday. The Reds are 0-6 since May 26, 2011 when Homer Bailey starts when their team used 6+ pitchers yesterday for a net profit of $640 when playing against.

St. Louis 6 Cincinnati 3

**StarDust Bum** · 07-15-2012, 11:45 AM

Westbrook tries to stop charging Reds Sunday

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (46-42)

at CINCINNATI REDS (49-38)

First pitch: Sunday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Cincinnati -150, St. Louis +140, Total: 8½

The sizzling-hot Reds aim to finish off a sweep of the Cardinals and win their sixth straight game on Sunday night.

Although Cincinnati is on the verge of a sweep, these NL Central foes have played a very even series in the past three seasons, with St. Louis holding a 22-19 advantage, and the Reds winning 11 of 20 at home. This season, each club has won four of the eight meetings, but there is a big difference in the way the two starting pitchers have performed in this series in their careers. Cards right-hander Jake Westbrook is 3-1 with a respectable 3.83 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in eight starts against the Reds, while Cincinnati righty Homer Bailey is just 2-6 (team is 2-8) with a bloated 5.72 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 10 starts versus St. Louis. These numbers include when the two faced each other on April 9, with Westbrook not allowing an earned run in seven strong innings and Bailey serving up three longballs in a 7-1 Cardinals win. With the money line so lopsided in favor of the streaking Reds, the pick here is ST. LOUIS to avoid getting swept by its division rival.

This two-star FoxSheets trend also backs the Cards:

ST. LOUIS is 48-25 (65.8%, +24.1 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ST. LOUIS 6.2, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 2*).

Westbrook (7-7, 3.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) has pitched very well in his past six outings, throwing five quality starts. He’s gone 3-2 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in this span, compiling three times as many strikeouts (21) as walks (7). Westbrook has also been quite effective away from home. He’s just 3-4, getting a total of five runs of support in the four defeats, but has a 2.94 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and .232 opponents’ BA in these eight road starts. Westbrook has controlled many of the Reds big bats over the years, including Joey Votto (1-for-9), Jay Bruce (3-for-12), Drew Stubbs (0-for-6) and Ryan Ludwick (2-for-8), who hit a walk-off homer to win Saturday’s game. However, Westbrook might want to pitch around Brandon Phillips (7-for-17) and especially Chris Heisey, who is 3-for-8 with three solo homers in his career versus Westbrook.

Bailey (7-6, 4.14 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) entered the All-Star Break with two sterling performances, both on the road. He beat both the Dodgers and Padres, posting a 2.45 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 15 strikeouts and one walk in these 14.2 innings. However, he has not enjoyed pitching at home this season, going 1-4 with a 5.86 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in eight starts in Cincinnati. He’s given up 12 homers in this 43-inning span, and has allowed at least one homer in eight of his past 10 starts overall. This could be a major problem, considering the Cardinals have smacked 50 homers on the road this year, the second-most in the National League. Five St. Louis batters have a career OPS greater than 1.100 in their careers versus Bailey -- John Jay (1.768 OPS in 7 AB), Lance Berkman (1.232 OPS in 9 AB), Matt Holliday (1.228 OPS, 2 HR in 18 AB), David Freese (1.182 OPS, 2 HR in 11 AB) and Yadier Molina (1.178 OPS, 1 HR in 9 AB). Berkman, who has not started a game since May 19, was used as a pinch-hitter on Saturday and expects to be in the starting lineup on Sunday. The one thing in Bailey’s favor is that the Reds have a superior bullpen (2.71 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 69% save percentage) to the Cardinals (4.46 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 59% save percentage).

**StarDust Bum** · 07-15-2012, 11:49 AM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, July 15

Hot pitchers
-- Nolasco is 2-0, 1.83 in his last three starts.
-- Burnett is 5-0, 3.55 in his last six starts. Gallardo is 1-1, 2.45 in his last three outings.
-- Hamels is 1-1, 2.89 in his last four starts. Pomeranz has a 2.05 RA in his last four starts.
-- Cueto is 5-2, 2.37 in his last seven starts. Westbrook is 2-1, 3.21 in his last five starts.

-- Weaver is 4-0, 0.33 since coming off the DL. Nova is 2-0, 1.17 in his last two home outings.
-- Villanueva is 1-0, 2.45 in two starts for Toronto.
-- Verlander is 4-1, 2.77 in his last five starts. Gonzalez allowed one run in seven IP in his first '12 start.
-- Parker is 3-1, 2.59 in his last five starts.
-- Sale is 2-0, 1.21 in his last three starts.
-- Harrison is 8-1, 1.52 in his last nine starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Strasburg is 0-3, 5.40 in his last three starts.
-- JSantana is 0-1, 8.53 in two starts against Atlanta this year. Sheets makes his first start since he made 20 starts in '10 (he also missed all of '09). For his career, Sheets is 90-92, 3.79 in 241 career starts.
-- Cahill is 2-2, 7.13 in his last four starts. Garza is 2-3, 5.72 in his last five.
-- Norris is 0-5, 8.35 in his last five starts. Cain is 1-1, 4.26 in his last four.
-- Billingsley is 0-5, 6.52 in his last five starts. Marquis is 0-4, 5.74 in his last five starts.

-- Lowe is 1-3, 7.94 in his last six starts.
-- Shields is 1-1, 6.07 in his last four starts.
-- Beckett is 0-3, 4.91 in his last five starts.
-- Duensing is 0-3, 7.15 in his last three starts.
-- Mendoza is 1-2, 3.93 in his last three outings.
-- Iwakuma allowed three runs in five IP in his first '12 start.

Hot Teams
-- Cubs won seven of their last eight home games.
-- Washington won nine of its last 14 games. Marlins won five of their last six home games.
-- Reds won eight of their last eleven home games.
-- Braves won seven of their last eight games.
-- Pirates won 11 of their last 14 games. Milwaukee is 11-6 in its last 17 home games.

-- Bronx won six of its last seven games.
-- Indians are 8-5 in their last thirteen games.
-- Detroit won six of its last seven games.
-- White Sox won ten of their last fourteen games. Kansas City won four of its last five home games.
-- A's won eight of their last nine games.

Cold Teams
-- Arizona lost eight of its last ten road games.
-- Mets lost four of their last five games.
-- Philadelphia lost 11 of its last 13 games. Rockies lost 11 of their last 15 home games.
-- Dodgers lost 16 of their last 22 games. San Diego lost four of five.
-- San Francisco lost seven of its last eleven games. Astros lost their last 12 games on foreign soil.
-- Cardinals lost their last three road games, scoring eight runs.

-- Angels lost their last four road games, allowing 32 games.
-- Orioles lost six of their last eight home games.
-- Blue Jays are 4-6 in their last ten games.
-- Red Sox lost seven of their last nine games. Tampa Bay is 6-10 in its last 16 games, 6-9 in last fifteen at home.
-- Twins lost six of their last seven games.
-- Mariners lost five of their last seven games. Texas lost four of its last five games on the road.

Totals
-- Nine of last twelve Cub games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Miami home games.
-- Nine of last eleven Cincinnati home games stayed under.
-- Over is 8-3-1 in Atlanta's last twelve home games.
-- Over is 24-5 in last 29 games at Miller Park.
-- Six of last eight games at Coors Field went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Dodger games stayed under the total.
-- 15 of last 22 Houston road games went over the total.

-- Nine of Angels' last eleven road games went over total.
-- Under is 11-5-2 in Cleveland's last eighteen road games.
-- Over is 5-1-2 in last eight games at Camden Yards.
-- Under is 13-3 in Boston's last sixteen road games.
-- Last three White Sox games went over the total.
-- Under is 12-4 in last sixteen Oakland games (1-3 in last four).
-- Under is 10-3 in last thirteen games at Safeco Field.

Umpires
-- Phil-Col-- Five of last seven Barry games went over the total.
-- NY-Atl-- Home side won six of last seven Bucknor games.
-- Az-Chi-- Four of last five Runge games went over the total.
-- Pitt-Mil-- Four of last five Vanover games went over the total.
-- StL-Cin-- Under is 5-2-1 in West's last eight games behind plate.
-- Wsh-Mia-- Four of last five Foster games stayed under.
-- Hst-SF-- Road team won five of last six Winters games.
-- SD-LA-- Home side won seven of last nine Davis games.

-- LA-NY-- Last ten TWelke games stayed under the total.
-- Cle-Tor-- Six of last seven Marquez games stayed under total.
-- Det-Balt-- Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Timmons games.
-- A's-Min-- Three of last four Porter games went over total.
-- Chi-KC-- All three Baker games went under, with home side 3-0.
-- Bos-TB-- Seven of last ten Dimuro games stayed under; home team won the last five.
-- Tex-Sea-- Over is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Cederstrom games.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-15-2012, 12:02 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

07/14/12 17-*13-*0 56.67% +*1590 Detail
07/13/12 15-*13-*2 53.57% +*455 Detail
07/08/12 18-*11-*1 62.07% +*3810 Detail
07/07/12 16-*13-*1 55.17% +*1155 Detail
07/06/12 17-*13-*0 56.67% +*1390 Detail
07/05/12 5-*15-*0 25.00% -*6175 Detail
07/04/12 16-*12-*0 57.14% +*2300 Detail
07/03/12 12-*18-*0 40.00% -*3155 Detail
07/02/12 13-*11-*0 54.17% +*305 Detail
07/01/12 13-*15-*1 46.43% -*860 Detail

Totals 142-*134-*5 51.45% +815

MLB

Sunday, July 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

LA Angels - 1:05 PM ET LA Angels -102 500
NY Yankees - Under 9.5 500

Cleveland - 1:07 PM ET Toronto -136 500
Toronto - Over 9.5 500

Washington - 1:10 PM ET Washington -132 500
Miami - Over 7.5 500

Detroit - 1:35 PM ET Baltimore +156 500
Baltimore - Over 8 500

NY Mets - 1:35 PM ET NY Mets -103 500
Atlanta - Over 8.5 500

Boston - 1:40 PM ET Tampa Bay -105 500
Tampa Bay - Over 8 500

Chi. White Sox - 2:10 PM ET Kansas City +136 500
Kansas City - Under 8.5 500

Oakland - 2:10 PM ET Oakland +102 500
Minnesota - Over 8.5 500

Pittsburgh - 2:10 PM ET Pittsburgh +132 500
Milwaukee - Over 8.5 500

Arizona - 2:20 PM ET Chi. Cubs -111 500
Chi. Cubs -

Philadelphia - 3:10 PM ET Philadelphia -125 500
Colorado - Over 10 500

Houston - 4:05 PM ET San Francisco -226 500
San Francisco - Under 6.5 500

Texas - 4:10 PM ET Seattle +154 500
Seattle - Under 8 500

San Diego - 4:10 PM ET San Diego +149 500
LA Dodgers - Over 7.5 500

St. Louis - 8:00 PM ET St. Louis +139 500
Cincinnati -

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