The Bum's Saturday's MLB Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Angels & Yankees Play Saturday Matinee In Bronx

Saturday afternoon in Major League Baseball continues with some great matchups like the Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees and St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds.

Let’s first update the Friday night line of the latter matchup. The Don Best odds screen has Cincy as 120 home favorites behind starter Mat Latos. The total is at eight runs and shaded to the ‘over.’

St. Louis’ Adam Wainwright is the opposing hurler and he is 11-3 in his last 14 road starts as an underdog.

Our Saturday look begins with the L.A. Angels at the New York Yankees at 1:05 p.m. (ET). The Bronx Bombers and starter Freddy Garcia are 145 favorites with a pretty big total of 10½.

The Yankees have the best record in baseball (52-33) and a rare comfortable lead among the MLB division races. The Angels trail Texas by four games in the AL West, but would be in the playoffs if it started today, heating up with a 30-13 mark before the break.

Jerome Williams (6-5, 4.46 ERA) gets the call for the visitors. He’s returning from the DL after an unusual shortness of breath. He also injured his forearm in a rehab start and his three games before the DL were extremely ugly (0-3, 7.56 ERA).

Garcia (3-2, 5.23 ERA) had made just six starts this year. He is an amazing 15-3 lifetime against the Angels with a 2.59 ERA. Despite that fact, Don Best Sports analyst Pat Williams thinks there could be a lot of runs scored on Saturday at Yankee Stadium.

The Cardinals and Reds are once again in the spotlight for their Saturday matchup at 4:05 p.m. (ET). The pitching duel is Kyle Lohse for the Redbirds against Cincy's Mike Leake.

St. Louis’ Lohse (9-2, 2.79 ERA) has been one of the most consistent yet underrated hurlers in the majors this campaign. Thirteen of his 18 outings have been quality starts, and he is working on a string of seven such efforts with the Cards winning five. They also triumphed in both of his assignments against the Reds back in April.

Leake has had some tough luck this year with a 3-6 record. His ERA is 4.01, but he has really suffered from a lack of run support. His last start was the Fourth of July at the Dodgers, getting the loss despite allowing just two earned runs over seven innings.

The 24-year-old right-hander had reeled off 9-straight starts without a loss before the Dodgers, posting a 2.55 ERA. Cincy won six of those contests. Note the ‘under’ is 4-0 in his last four starts.

Make sure to check the Don Best Pro Odds all weekend long as the second-half of the MLB season gets underway in exciting fashion.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday FOX Tips

July 13, 2012

The Saturday FOX baseball card showcases three crucial games for potential playoff clubs. None of the six teams are leading their division currently, but all six are threats to qualify for the postseason. We'll begin in the Queen City with a division showdown with two rivals looking to make up ground on the surprising Pirates.

Cardinals at Reds

We're not going to fall for this trick again with St. Louis by counting them out at this point of the season. Last season, the Redbirds overcame a double-digit game deficit to capture the Wild Card berth en route to a World Series title. This season, the Cards sit 2 ½ games behind Pittsburgh in the NL Central, while trying to get its injury problems in order with Lance Berkman likely returning to the lineup on Saturday.

The Reds finished off a 6-5 road swing through the state of California prior to the All-Star break, including three consecutive victories at previously-hot San Diego. Cincinnati sends out Mike Leake (3-6, 4.01 ERA), who has quietly turned in four straight quality starts, even though the Reds are 1-3 in this stretch. The offense hasn't helped out the former Arizona State standout over the last tree weeks, compiling six runs in the three defeats, while two of the defeats came as a favorite of -140 or higher.

The Cardinals counter with Kyle Lohse (9-2, 2.79), as the right-hander owns the second most victories on the staff. Lohse has compiled six straight quality starts, while tossing at least seven innings in each of those outings (5-2). St. Louis is 5-2 in Lohse's seven starts during the day, as the Redbirds are 5-1 to the 'under' in his previous six starts overall. Cincinnati is riding an impressive an 'under' stretch by cashing in 17 of the previous 22 games overall.

Mets at Braves

Atlanta concluded the first half with victories in five of its final six contests, including a three-game sweep at Philadelphia. The Mets alternated wins and losses in each of his last eight games prior to the break, while going 3-3 against a pair of last-place teams in the Phillies and Cubs. Both teams are chasing the Nationals in the NL East, but the Braves have more at stake following last season's meltdown.

Atlanta stayed on the heels of Philadelphia for the final two months of 2011, but was ready to settle on the NL Wild Card berth. After the monumental meltdown that saw the Cardinals pass the Braves, obviously this is a redemption season for Fredi Gonzalez's club. The Braves send out their most consistent pitcher to the mound in Tommy Hanson (10-5, 3.71 ERA), who is 5-1 in his previous seven starts. Hanson has taken care of his business at Turner Field with a 3-1 record the last four home outings, although the right-hander dropped a 4-1 decision as a -200 favorite against the Cubs his most recent home trip to the mound.

The Braves are 0-2 in Hanson's two starts against the Mets this season, including a home defeat in mid-April as a -170 'chalk.' New York counters with the most impressive pitching story of 2012, as All-Star R.A. Dickey (12-1, 2.40 ERA) returns to the scene of his only loss this season. The knuckleballer allowed a season-high eight runs on April 18 at Turner Field, a 14-6 drubbing at the hands of the Braves. Since that defeat, Dickey has compiled a 10-0 record in 14 trips to the hill, including five outings in which he didn't allow a run. After turning into an 'under' machine for the first two-plus months, the Mets are 4-1 to the 'over' in his last five starts.

Tigers at Orioles

There were certain expectations for both these American League clubs, but both didn't go according to plan in the first half. Detroit tinkered around the .500 mark for a majority of the opening three months before running off five straight wins, while Baltimore started off the campaign on fire. The Orioles are expectedly going backwards in the loaded AL East, capped off by losing three of four at Los Angeles to close the first half.

Buck Showalter's team is in the midst of a 6-13 slump after taking two of three at Atlanta in mid-June. The Orioles look to get on track with southpaw Wei-Yin Chen (7-5, 3.93 ERA) taking the ball, as the 26-year old has lost each of his previous two home starts against the Nationals and Indians. A majority of Chen's success has come in the underdog role, as Baltimore is 8-4 when the left-hander starts at plus-money.

The Tigers search for consistency with Max Scherzer (8-5, 4.72 ERA) toeing the rubber. Scherzer has turned in four straight quality outings, while each of Detroit's last five wins with the righty starting have been decided by three or more runs. The Tigers are 5-0 to the 'under' in Scherzer's previous five starts away overall, including three consecutive away from Comerica Park.

[StarDust Bum]

Price looks to even series with Sox on Saturday

BOSTON RED SOX (44-43)

at TAMPA BAY RAYS (45-42)


First pitch: Saturday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Tampa Bay -155, Boston +145, Total: 7½

David Price looks to remain hot when his Rays host the Red Sox in the middle of a three-game set on Saturday night in Tampa Bay.

Price, who is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in his past four starts, will be opposed by Boston right-hander Clay Buchholz, who will come off the disabled list to make his first start since June 19. Buchholz, who was out with a gastrointestinal illness, hasn’t lost a game since May 16, going 4-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his past four starts. These divisional foes have played 21 times at Tropicana Field over the past three seasons, with the Rays holding a slight 11-10 advantage, showing that these teams are much closer than the money line would indicate. And although Price is the more accomplished starting pitcher, Buchholz has been better in this series, carting a 2.49 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Rays. With Tampa Bay scoring three runs or less in four of its past six games, and the Sox carting an impressive 18-10 mark (.643) against lefty starters, the smart play here is heavy underdog BOSTON to win for the second straight night.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Red Sox:

Play Against - Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (TAMPA BAY) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season (AL), playing on Saturday. (128-139 since 1997.) (47.9%, +70.3 units. Rating = 3*).

Buchholz (8-2, 5.53 ERA, 1.54 WHIP) will be facing Tampa Bay for the fourth time this season. He was shelled on April 14 (7 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 5 K), but has been stronger in his past two starts against Tampa Bay, allowing two runs in each outing, compiling 11 strikeouts and just two walks. He has not pitched effectively on the road this season, sporting a hefty 5.71 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in his six away starts, but his teammates have picked him up and won four of those outings. Buchholz has been strong at Tropicana Field though, going 3-2 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in six career starts in Tampa Bay. He may be limited to a pitch count in his first start back from a lengthy illness, but Boston’s great bullpen has him covered with a 2.27 ERA and 1.11 WHIP on the road this season.

Price (11-4, 2.82 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) has had great success against the Red Sox over the years, carrying a 3.22 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 12 career starts against them. He lasted only three innings in his first start against Boston this year (3 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 K), but shut down the Sox on May 26, allowing just one run in seven innings. Price wasn’t great in two home starts versus the Red Sox last year (11 IP, 6 ER, 3 HR, 6 BB), but he has been stellar in Tropicana Field this season, going 5-2 with a 2.22 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 58 K in 56.2 IP. Price’s task will be slightly tougher this time around as two Red Sox starters returned to action on Friday night in OF Jacoby Ellsbury and 3B Will Middlebrooks. And even though Dustin Pedroia (thumb) isn’t eligible to come off the DL until July 19, Pedro Ciriaco has done a great job replacing him, going 10-for-16 with six RBI and three steals in four games.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, July 14

Series won-lost records are now below the daily writeup.......

Hot pitchers
-- Dickey is 7-0, 1.55 in his last nine starts; Mets are 11-1 in his last twelve. Hanson is 5-1, 3.94 in his last six outings.
-- Dempster is 4-0, 0.00 (27 IP) in his last four starts.
-- Correia is 3-0, 4.04 in his last four starts.
-- Lohse is 4-1, 2.02 in his last seven starts. Leake is 1-1, 2.03 in his last four.
-- Buehrle is 3-0, 0.83 in his last three starts. Washington won last four Gonzalez starts (4-0, 4.70) scoring 32 runs.
-- Harrell is 1-1, 2.57 in his last three starts.
-- Volquez is 2-0, 1.37 in his last three starts.

-- Garcia is 1-0, 2.25 in his last couple starts.
-- Jimenez is 2-2, 3.08 in his last four starts.
-- Scherzer is 3-1, 2.00 in his last four starts.
-- Milone is 2-1, 2.57 in his last four starts. De Vries is 2-0, 2.35 in his last four starts.
-- Peavy has a 2.65 RA in his last five starts, but only one win. Royals won four of last five Hochevar starts (3-1, 2.20).
-- Price is 3-0, 2.57 in his last four starts. Buchholz was 4-0, 2.40 in his last four starts before going on DL.
-- FHernandez is 2-0, 1.75 in his last five starts. Darvish is 3-1, 3.30 in his last four starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Worley is 1-2, 5.48 in his last four starts. Guthrie is 0-4, 8.59 in his last five outings.
-- Saunders was 1-2, 3.86 in his last three starts before going on DL.
-- Estrada is 0-3, 4.71 in eight starts, 0-0, 3.46 in his last three.
-- Lincecum allowed 14 runs in 6.2 IP in his last two starts; Giants are 2-11 in his last 13 starts.
-- Harang is 1-2, 4.84 in his last four starts.

-- JWilliams was 0-3, 8.64 in his last three starts before the DL.
-- Toronto is 0-3 when Laffey starts (0-1, 3.50).
-- WChen is 0-3, 6.35 in his last four starts.

Hot Teams
-- Cubs won six of their last seven home games.
-- Washington won nine of its last 13 games. Marlins won four of their last five home games.
-- St Louis won six of its last nine games. Reds won seven of their last ten home games.
-- Braves won six of their last seven games. Mets won seven of their last 11 games on foreign soil.
-- Pirates won ten of their last thirteen games. Milwaukee is 11-5 in its last 16 home games.

-- Bronx won five of its last six games. Angels won 12 of their last 19 games.
-- Indians won eight of their last twelve games.
-- Detroit won its last six games overall; they won seven of last ten on road.
-- White Sox won ten of their last thirteen games.
-- A's won seven of their last eight games.

Cold Teams
-- Arizona lost seven of its last nine road games.
-- Philadelphia lost 11 of its last 12 games. Rockies lost ten of their last fourteen home games.
-- Dodgers lost 15 of their last 21 games. San Diego lost ten of its last 13 home games.
-- San Francisco lost seven of its last ten games. Astros lost their last eleven games on foreign soil.

-- Orioles lost six of their last seven home games.
-- Blue Jays are 3-6 in their last nine games.
-- Red Sox lost six of their last eight games. Tampa Bay is 5-10 in its last 15 games, 5-9 in last fourteen at home.
-- Royals lost nine of last 11 games, but won three of last four at home.
-- Twins lost five of their last six games.
-- Mariners lost five of their last six games. Texas lost three of its last four games on the road.

Totals
-- Nine of last eleven Cub games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Miami home games.
-- Eight of last ten Cincinnati home games stayed under.
-- Over is 7-3-1 in Atlanta's last eleven home games.
-- Over is 23-5 in last 28 games at Miller Park.
-- Five of last seven games at Coors Field went over the total.
-- Six of last seven games at Petco Park stayed under total.
-- 15 of last 21 Houston road games went over the total.

-- Nine of Angels' last ten road games went over total.
-- Under is 11-4-2 in Cleveland's last seventeen road games.
-- Over is 4-1-2 in last seven games at Camden Yards.
-- Under is 13-2 in Boston's last fifteen road games.
-- Six of White Sox' last nine road games stayed under.
-- Under is 8-4 in Minnesota's last twelve home games.
-- Under is 10-2 in last twelve games at Safeco Field.

Umpires
-- Phil-Col-- 16 of 17 Emmel games went over the total.
-- NY-Atl-- Under is 9-2-2 in last thirteen Iassogna games.
-- Az-Chi-- Seven of last eight Hudson games went over total.
-- Pitt-Mil-- Eight of last ten Carapazza games stayed under.
-- StL-Cin-- 10 of last 13 Fletcher games went over the total.
-- Wsh-Mia-- Four of last five Cooper games stayed under.
-- Hst-SF-- Visiting team won 11 of last 14 Knight games.
-- SD-LA-- Eight of last ten Gibson games went over total.

-- LA-NY-- 12 of last 14 Schrieber games went over total.
-- Cle-Tor-- Six of last seven Fairchild games stayed under.
-- Det-Balt--Six of last eight Hickox games stayed under.
-- A's-Min-- Underdogs are 8-5 in last thirteen Tichenor games.
-- Chi-KC-- Home team is 13-4 this year with Tschida behind plate.
-- Bos-TB-- Under is 11-3-1 in last fifteen Nelson games.
-- Tex-Sea-- Road team won 10 of last 14 Johnson games.

2012 baseball series records

thru 7/12
Home Away Total
Arizona 7-7 4-8-2 11-15-2
Atlanta 5-5-4 9-4-1 14-9-5
Cubs 6-7 2-9-4 8-16-4
Cincinnati 7-5-1 7-5-3 14-10-4
Colorado 6-6-2 2-11-1 8-17-3
Houston 6-8-1 1-12 7-20-1
Dodgers 9-4-1 5-8-1 14-12-2
Miami 6-6-2 5-7-2 11-13-4
Milwaukee 7-6-1 4-9-1 11-15-2
Mets 7-7-1 6-7 13-14-1
Philadelphia 4-8-2 6-7-1 10-15-3
Pittsburgh 11-3 5-5-4 16-8-4
St Louis 7-6-1 7-6-1 14-12-2
San Diego 4-8-2 3-9-2 7-17-4
San Francisco 9-2-3 6-7-1 15-9-4
Washington 7-4-3 9-4-1 16-8-4
Baltimore 7-6-1 9-5 16-11-1
Boston 7-8 7-4-2 14-12-2
White Sox 8-7-1 5-5-3 13-12-4
Cleveland 6-7-2 8-5 14-12-2
Detroit 7-5-2 5-7-2 12-12-4
Kansas City 4-7-1 8-5-3 12-12-4
Angels 8-3-3 6-7-1 14-10-4
Minnesota 4-8-2 5-7-2 9-15-4
Bronx 8-3-2 8-5-2 16-8-4
A's 7-5-2 5-7-3 12-12-5
Seattle 5-7-1 5-10-1 10-17-2
Tampa Bay 7-5-2 6-7-1 13-12-3
Texas 11-3-1 7-6 18-9-1
Toronto 7-5-2 4-7-3 11-12-5

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, July 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount

LA Angels - 1:05 PM ET NY Yankees -140 500
NY Yankees - Over 10.5 500

Arizona - 1:05 PM ET Chi. Cubs -113 500
Chi. Cubs - Under 8.5 500

Cleveland - 1:07 PM ET Toronto -127 500
Toronto - Over 10 500

Detroit - 4:05 PM ET Detroit -127 500
Baltimore - Under 9 500

NY Mets - 4:05 PM ET Atlanta -107 500
Atlanta - Over 7.5 500

St. Louis - 4:05 PM ET Cincinnati -114 500
Cincinnati - Over 9 500

Boston - 7:10 PM ET Tampa Bay -149 500
Tampa Bay - Over 7.5 500

Washington - 7:10 PM ET Washington -107 500
Miami - Over 7.5 500

Chi. White Sox - 7:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox -125 500
Kansas City - Over 8.5 500

Oakland - 7:10 PM ET Oakland +101 500
Minnesota - Over 8 500

Pittsburgh - 7:10 PM ET Pittsburgh +143 500
Milwaukee - Under 9 500

Philadelphia - 8:10 PM ET Colorado +106 500
Colorado - Under 11 500

Houston - 9:05 PM ET San Francisco -179 500
San Francisco - Over 8 500

Texas - 9:10 PM ET Seattle +103 500
Seattle - Under 6.5 500

San Diego - 9:10 PM ET San Diego +120 500
LA Dodgers - Under 7.5 500