Announcement

**Udog** · 07-12-2012, 08:23 AM

Thursday’s betting tips: Dodgers eyeing two Cubs pitchers

Who’s hot

CFL: The Stampeders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.

WNBA: Under is 17-5 in the Shock's last 22 road games.

WNBA: Sparks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

Who’s not

CFL: The Alouettes are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.

WNBA: Lynx are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.

WNBA: Fever are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.

Key stat

5 – The Los Angeles Sparks will play their fifth game in the span of eight nights Thursday at Indiana. So far the busy schedule hasn’t slowed them at all. They’re riding a run of 4-0 both straight up and against the spread as they head into Indiana as 3.5-point underdogs.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Anthony Calvillo, Montreal Alouettes – Calvillo is still nursing a bruised left shoulder but has been able to practice this week and plans to start Thursday against Calgary. The news for Calgary’s starting quarterback isn’t so good. Drew Tate is out indefinitely with his own shoulder injury, forcing veteran Kevin Glenn to step in.

Game of the day

Calgary Stampeders at Montreal Alouettes (-6, 56)

Notable quotable

"It's the Midwest. It's the type of golf course that I grew up on. I can drive here from home. It's comfortable surroundings. I enjoy the course. I enjoy coming here. . . . But I really can't put a finger on it." – Steve Stricker about going for his fourth John Deere Classic title. He’s set as the tournament favorite at +700.

Notes and tips

The New Jersey Nets reportedly signed Brook Lopez to a four-year, $60-million deal Wednesday, which effectively ended the recent talk of the Nets acquiring Orlando Magic center Dwight Howard. Lopez played just five games last year due to foot and ankle injuries but averages 17.4 points and 7.5 rebounds per game in his career. The Nets also finalized earlier deals with Deron Williams, Gerald Wallace and Joe Johnson.

The Knicks are set to match the Houston Rockets' four-year, $28.8 million offer to restricted free agent Jeremy Lin, retaining the point guard for at least the next three seasons. The Knicks said they would match any offer Lin receives to keep him, even after bringing veteran Jason Kidd in on a free-agent deal.

A CBSSports.com report indicates the Los Angeles Dodgers are talking with the Chicago Cubs about the availability of starting pitchers Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster. Garza has struggled with a 4-7 record and a 4.32 ERA, while Dempster, a free agent at the end of the season, is 4-3 in 13 starts with a tidy 1.99 ERA.

Miami Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen told ESPN’s Dan LeBatard that he intends to use a closer-by-committee system at least to begin the second half. Miami’s bullpen ranks third from the bottom of the bigs with a 4.65 ERA.

The Warriors acquired veteran point guard Jarrett Jack from the New Orleans Hornets as part of the trade that will send Dorell Wright to Philadelphia. The Hornets received the draft rights to 2006 second-round pick Edin Bavcic in return. Bavcic played in Greece last season. Wright averaged 16.4 points and 5.3 rebounds in 2010-11 but his production dipped last season (10.3/4.6). Jack averaged 15.6 points and 6.3 assists with New Orleans last season.

**Udog** · 07-12-2012, 08:23 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Umpires who favored overs and unders in first half.......

Over
Emmel 16-1, .941
Holbrook 12-4, .750
Schrieber 13-5, .722
Fletcher 10-4, .714
Carlson 12-5, .706
Darling 13-6, .684
Cederstrom 12-6, .667
Drake 12-6, .667

Under
TWelke 3-13, .188
Iassogna 4-13, .235
Bellino 5-14, .263
Wegner 5-13, .278
Reyburn 5-11, .313
Hernandez 5-11, .313
Kellogg 6-13, .316

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Armadillo: Thursday's List: Mid-season grades for National League teams

D'backs-- 42-43, C+. Score lot of runs at home, but are just 21-19 there. Are 8-13 in 1-run games, so room for improvement there. Injury to Drew hurt, but he is back in lineup now.

Braves-- 46-39, B+. Beachy's injury has exposed fact that Delgado/Teheran aren't quite ready for big leagues yet. Return of Jurrjens is encouraging, and emergence of young SS Simmons has boltstered defense, though he got hurt right before break (pinky).

Cubs-- 33-52, D-. Could be complete fire sale later this month, with LaHair, Dempster, Soriano, Garza likely to hit road. Wee Bears rebuilding around Rizzo/Castro and maybe Samardzija.

Reds-- 47-38, B+. 21-13 in games decided by 3+ runs, a good sign. Batters been walked intentionally 32 times, five more than any other team, sign that Votto could use some protection in lineup.

Rockies-- 33-52, F. Pitching is so horrific they're down to a 4-man rotation, with 75-80-pitch limits; injuries to de la Rosa/Chacin have crippled rotation. Tulowitzki's injury hurts, but not sure what their plan is.

Astros-- 33-53, D. Seem to be holding open tryout for position players, as they prepare for move to AL next year. Their NY-Penn league team is here in Troy; I am told this year's prospects are best they've had in years.

Dodgers-- 47-40, B Everyone said Kemp/Ethier were carrying team, but the degree they fell off map after Kemp's injury was startling. Rumored to be in negotations to buy off some of Cubs' spare parts.

Marlins-- 41-44, D. Where do I start? D is for disaster. Bell has been brutal closing games, starting pitching is shaky, Bonifacio/Stanton are hurt now. Reyes has been healthy but ordinary, same for Ramirez.

Brewers-- 40-45, C-. Departure of Fielder obviously hurt, so dropoff isn't huge surprise, but Axford has been a disappointing closer. Aoki has been a help coming over from Japan, but Weeks is having dismal season.

Mets-- 46-40, B+. 3rd in NL in runs scored. Got way more than expected out of Santana/Dickey in rotation, but now Gee might be done for year, so it becomes a big decision: bring big prospect Harvey up or not?

Phillies-- 37-50, F. Injuries to Utley, Howard, Halladay have contributed to this unmitigated disaster, but they've been awful since Utley came back, so this could be lost season. Will they dump Hamels/Victorino for prospects?

Pirates-- 48-37, A+. Haven't had winning season since '92, so imagine how excited Pirate fans must be, in first place despite an offense with an OB% of .300, lowest in the National League.

Cardinals-- 46-40, B. Tough duty for Matheny, taking over world champs in year Pujols walked away with no big league compensation. Beltran has been a godsend. Cards are 4th in majors, 1st in NL in runs scored.

Padres-- 34-53, D. Still paying for horrendous Adrian Gonzalez trade. Hurt by Cashner's inability to stay healthy, since he seems like a potential ace. Scored 12 less runs than any other teams in baseball.

Giants-- 46-40, C+. Tied with mostly Kemp-less Dodgers with 51 HRs, least in MLB. Contending despite disasterous '12 from Lincecum, who is looking bewildered on mound. Vogelsong has picked up slack.

Nationals-- 49-34, A+. Davey Johnson is enhancing Hall of Fame resume as a manager. Interesting to see if they stick to word and shut Strasburg down when he hits his innings limit. Will they save innings for October?

**Udog** · 07-12-2012, 08:24 AM

Public opinion: Solid support for underdog Stamps

Consensus percentages and odds current as of 8 p.m. ET, Wednesday.

CFL:

Calgary Stampeders at Montreal Alouettes (-6, 56)

Maybe Montreal bettors are getting a little tired handing over their hard-earned cake. The Alouettes have dropped eight of their last nine games against the spread dating back to last season and went into this week with some quarterback controversy. Anthony Calvillo is set to start despite a bruised left shoulder, instead of backup Adrian McPherson, who put together a 97-yard scoring drive when he stepped in for the vet last week. Meanwhile, the Stamps will be without Drew Tate for at least five weeks, which leaves Kevin Glenn to take the snaps. Calgary has also covered the number in four of its last five meetings with Montreal.

Consensus: Stampeders, 58 percent

WNBA:

Tulsa Shock at Minnesota Lynx (18, 172)

The Minnesota Lynx finally came out of tailspin that saw them drop three in a row against the spread and straight up by smoking Tulsa 107-86, covering as 13.5-point favorites. Now with the Lynx returning to Minnesota for the rematch, oddsmakers are heaping chalk on the home team. The Lynx have covered in 17 of their last 25 home games, but without Rebekkah Brunson (calf) down low, this is a lot of points.

Consensus: Shock, 61 percent

**Udog** · 07-12-2012, 08:25 AM

CFL
Dunkel

Calgary at Montreal
The Alouettes look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 Thursday games. Montreal is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Alouettes favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-5 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

THURSDAY, JULY 12

Game 121-122: Calgary at Montreal (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 110.376; Montreal 117.483
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 7; 59
Vegas Line: Montreal by 5 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-5 1/2); Over

FRIDAY, JULY 13

Game 123-124: Winnipeg at Edmonton (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 113.050; Edmonton 111.933
Dunkel Line: Winnipeg by 1; 40
Vegas Line: Edmonton by 1; 45
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+1); Under

SATURDAY, JULY 14

Game 125-126: BC at Saskatchewan (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BC 118.788; Saskatchewan 114.696
Dunkel Line: BC by 4; 50
Vegas Line: BC by 2 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: BC (-2 1/2); Under

Game 127-128: Toronto at Hamilton (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 105.781; Hamilton 112.707
Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 7; 57
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 5; 53
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-5); Over

CFL
Long Sheet

Thursday, July 12

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CALGARY (1 - 1) at MONTREAL (1 - 1) - 7/12/2012, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 4-1 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 4-1 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Friday, July 13

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WINNIPEG (0 - 2) at EDMONTON (1 - 1) - 7/13/2012, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 62-89 ATS (-35.9 Units) as a favorite since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 3-1 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 2-2 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, July 14

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BRITISH COLUMBIA (2 - 0) at SASKATCHEWAN (2 - 0) - 7/14/2012, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 43-24 ATS (+16.6 Units) in July games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 105-68 ATS (+30.2 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-2 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-3 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TORONTO (1 - 1) at HAMILTON (0 - 2) - 7/14/2012, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HAMILTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 4-3 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 5-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Home 3-1 (6-2). Favorites 2-2 (5-3), Over 3-1 (4-4). West 5-1 vs East.

Thursday, July 12

Calgary (1-1) @ Montreal (1-1)-- For whatever reason, these teams' meetings in 2012 are in Weeks 1-3; Stampeders (-2.5) crushed Als 38-10 in season opener, outgaining Montreal 465-213 in game where both teams turned ball over three times. Calgary turned ball over four times, were outgained by 232 yards in loss at Toronto last week, but it was 39-36 despite all that. Alouettes passed ball for 445 yards last week in 41-30 win here over Winnipeg. Calgary QB Tate is hurt here; Glenn is expected to start.

Friday, July 13

Winnipeg (0-2) @ Edmonton (1-1)-- Who makes the CFL schedule? Winnipeg is on road for third week in row, other seven teams all had a home game in Weeks 1 or 2. Bombers were outgained by 154-153 yards in losing first couple games-- they gave up 445 passing yards in Montreal. Edmonton scored only 20 points in its first two games, getting blanked in second half last week in Regina. Home side won both series meetings LY; Bombers (+2.5) lost 24-10 here, after beating Eskimos 28-16 (+1), with both games staying under total.

Saturday, July 14

BC Lions (2-0) @ Saskatchewan (2-0)-- Roughriders bounced back from dismal '11 by winning first two games, allowing 17 points in pair of decisive wins- they were 0-3 vs Lions LY, losing by 13-37-11 points, with BC pounding them 42-5 in their only visit to Taylor Field. Lions are only team yet to play road game; in first two games, they scored 33-39 points, but Burris passed for 359 yards LW in narrow 39-36 Lion win. In two games, Saskatchewan outscored opponents 38-3 in second half-- good halftime adjustments.

Toronto (1-1) @ Hamilton (0-2)-- Argos had four sacks, four takeaways, threw for 407 yards in 39-36 win over Calgary LW; they lost two of three against the TigerCats LY, losing 37-32 (+7.5) in their only visit here. Favorites are 5-3 vs spread in CFL this year, with home team covering six of eight. Hamilton showed lot of improvement on offense last week, scoring 36 points in loss out west to BC, but they gave up four sacks and were minus-2 in turnovers. Argos' games so far this season were decided by a total of seven points.

CFL

Week 3

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Trend Report
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Thursday, July 12

7:30 PM
CALGARY vs. MONTREAL
Calgary is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Calgary is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Montreal is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Montreal is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Calgary

Friday, July 13

9:00 PM
WINNIPEG vs. EDMONTON
Winnipeg is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games ,when playing on the road against Edmonton
Winnipeg is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Edmonton is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Edmonton is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Winnipeg

Saturday, July 14

3:00 PM
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. SASKATCHEWAN
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of British Columbia's last 5 games on the road
British Columbia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Saskatchewan is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against British Columbia
Saskatchewan is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing British Columbia

7:00 PM
TORONTO vs. HAMILTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games
Toronto is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Hamilton's last 8 games at home
Hamilton is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Toronto

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**Udog** · 07-12-2012, 08:27 AM

WNBA
Dunkel

Los Angeles at Indiana
The Fever look to take advantage of an LA team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 road games. Indiana is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Fever favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks

THURSDAY, JULY 12

Game 651-652: Tulsa at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 104.780; Minnesota 120.185
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 15 1/2; 171
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 18; 166 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+18); Over

Game 653-654: Los Angeles at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 110.441; Indiana 116.142
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 5 1/2; 160
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 3 1/2; 163 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-3 1/2); Under

WNBA

Thursday, July 12

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Trend Report
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1:00 PM
TULSA vs. MINNESOTA
Tulsa is 3-20 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Tulsa's last 20 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Minnesota's last 10 games at home
Minnesota is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games at home

7:00 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. INDIANA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 7 games when playing Indiana
Los Angeles is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Indiana
Indiana is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Los Angeles
Indiana is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Los Angeles

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**Udog** · 07-12-2012, 09:10 AM

WNBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, July 12

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TULSA (3 - 14) at MINNESOTA (14 - 4) - 7/12/2012, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULSA is 22-36 ATS (-17.6 Units) in May, June, or July games over the last 3 seasons.
TULSA is 25-39 ATS (-17.9 Units) after allowing 75 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 35-24 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after allowing 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 41-27 ATS (+11.3 Units) after scoring 75 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 60-86 ATS (-34.6 Units) in July games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 7-4 against the spread versus TULSA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 9-2 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LOS ANGELES (14 - 6) at INDIANA (10 - 6) - 7/12/2012, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 21-36 ATS (-18.6 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 63-89 ATS (-34.9 Units) after a win by 10 points or more since 1997.
LOS ANGELES is 21-34 ATS (-16.4 Units) after scoring 75 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 64-89 ATS (-33.9 Units) against Western conference opponents since 1997.
INDIANA is 64-89 ATS (-33.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
INDIANA is 53-78 ATS (-32.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15+ games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 3-1 against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 3-1 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 07-12-2012, 09:13 AM

CFL

Week 3

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Makin' Canadian bacon: Week 3 CFL preview and picks
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So much for all that talk of the East being the punching bag of the CFL after Week 1. At least for bettors.

Eastern Division teams covered the spread in both meetings against the West last week while the other two games featured inter-divisional clashes. It was a complete flip-flop on the over/under also last week when the over went 3-1, compared to the week before when the under went 3-1.

On to this week’s matchups.

Calgary at Montreal (-6, 56)

Quarterback injuries are the storyline in the season’s first rematch. Calgary’s starting QB Drew Tate is out after separating his shoulder last week while Montreal’s star Anthony Calvillo is probable after bruising his.

The good news for the Stamps is they have one of the best and most experienced backups in the league in Kevin Glenn. The bad news is the Als will be hungry to turn the tables after suffering a 38-10 drubbing in Calgary in Week 1.

Pick: Calgary

Winnipeg at Edmonton (-15, 45)

Based on the first two weeks, it’s safe to say the Eskies miss Ricky Ray. Edmonton is averaging a league-worst 246 yards per game and last week it managed just one point against Saskatchewan. Not surprisingly, Edmonton’s first two games played under the posted total.

On the other hand, Winnipeg’s usually stout defense ranks worst in the CFL through the first two games so pick your poison.

The home team has won the past six meetings straight up but it looks like the Eskies might need some more time to mesh on offense.

Pick: Winnipeg

B.C. at Saskatchewan (+3, 54)

The Roughriders are the only team to have covered the spread in both of their games so far in 2012, which is part of the reason they’re only giving a field goal to the defending Grey Cup champs.

The other reason is that Sasky has looked just plain good in decisive wins over Hamilton and Edmonton. Saskatchewan’s defense has surrendered just 13.85 points per game over its last seven games dating back to last year – which is kind of incredible for the CFL. The under cashed six times over that span so that’s worth a look.

While that’s all well and good, B.C. has been something of a nemesis for Sasky bettors in recent seasons and the Lions have now covered in the past five meetings.

Pick: B.C. -3

Toronto at Hamilton (-3.5, 54.5)

Toronto tried its best to lose last week’s game against Calgary, blowing a 15-point, third quarter lead to allow the Stamps to come back and tie the game. And if this were last year’s Argos, they probably would have lost the game.

But this year’s Argos battled back to win on a field goal as the final seconds clicked off the clock, showing fans their investment in Ray brings hope for the future.

Hamilton, who also invested in a new QB this offseason (Henry Burris), isn’t quite seeing the same promise in the early going. The Ti-Cats are 0-2 and their defense has allowed 82 points through two games. Now they’re giving away more than a field goal to Toronto’s league-leading QB in passing yards.

Pick: Toronto

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Announcement

Thursday's Trends and Indexes - 7/12 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

Thursday's Trends and Indexes - 7/12 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

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