The Bum's Saturday's MLB & WNBA Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Marlins Spend Weekend At St. Louis Cardinals

A couple of National League clubs with the same long-term goals but different short-term targets collide this weekend in St. Louis where the Cardinals host the Miami Marlins.

Both squads are ultimately aiming for a National League pennant and were among a lengthy list of contenders behind the favored Philadelphia Phillies (+170) on the preseason MLB futures odds list. With the Phils wallowing in the basement of the NL East, it has opened the door for several teams to reach the World Series as the NL reps.

Miami was 10/1 to do that back in April, sharing those same odds with Arizona, Atlanta, San Francisco and Washington. St. Louis, coming off their surprising postseason run last October that ended with a World Series title, was listed at 12/1 when the season got underway.

Short-term goals for the Marlins are simply to reach .500 before next week's all-star break. Miami started the weekend set at 40-42 (-8.8 units) and fourth in the NL East, nine games south of the Nationals. The Redbirds were setting their sights on catching or at least tightening the gap on the surprising Pittsburgh Pirates who held a 2.5-game lead over third-place St. Louis in the NL Central. The Cardinals began the series 44-39 on the campaign (-5.9 units).

Hoping to add a little punch to the offense, Miami acquired 1B Carlos Lee from Houston on Wednesday for a couple of minor leaguers, infielder Matt Dominguez and left-hander Rob Rasmussen. Lee was in the Marlins lineup Thursday and batted third, delivering a double in his first at bat as part of a 2-hit day to help the Marlins to a 4-0 win over Milwaukee.

Friday's series opener (8:15 p.m. ET) was still pending and pitted Jake Westbrook on the mound for the Cardinals who were favorites in the 135-145 range on the Don Best odds screen. The Marlins were sending Ricky Nolasco to the hill and the game was playing to a 9½-run total.

Game 2 will be a matinee affair (4:10 p.m. ET) at Busch Stadium III with the mound duel a rematch from a couple of weeks ago in Miami as Carlos Zambrano faces off against Kyle Lohse. The Cardinals opened as 155 favorites and the 9-run total leaned to the 'over.'

St. Louis jumped on Zambrano with five 1st-inning runs at Marlins Park on June 26, and that was all Lohse and the Cardinals needed for a 5-2 victory as $1.40 road chalk. Zambrano's own fielding miscue contributed to the big opening frame for the Cards, but he settled down and put up zeroes the rest of the way before leaving with two outs in the top of the seventh. Lohse worked an out into the eighth and surrendered both Miami plate crossings.

Zambrano entered that contest with an excellent track record against the Cardinals from his days with the Cubs. The loss left him 12-7 lifetime vs. St. Louis with a 3.47 ERA, and he has solid career numbers against several Redbird hitters, including Carlos Beltran (4-for-24, 1 HR), Matt Holliday (5-for-25) and Rafael Furcal (4-for-26).

That June 26 defeat is part of a 5-start string for Zambrano that all ended in Miami losses. The streak started with back-to-back whippings at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays before continuing with setbacks to Boston, St. Louis and Milwaukee. All told, the Fish are 6-10 with Zambrano on the hill.

Lohse survived a tough month of May and will be seeking his third consecutive victory on Saturday. St. Louis is 11-7 in his assignments, with two of those wins coming against the Marlins. That record includes a 5-2 record in Lohse's starts at home where he has a 2.81 ERA.

He has lasted at least seven innings in each of his past five assignments and brings a stretch of six consecutive quality starts into Saturday's contest.

The series will draw to a close Sunday (2:15 p.m. ET) when Anibal Sanchez gets the call for Miami opposite St. Louis rookie Joe Kelly.

The Cardinals have taken three of the four meetings with Miami this year with the 'under' also cashing in three of the battles. All of those games were played in Miami, and the Marlins are 5-3 in their last eight played in St. Louis.

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Saturday

July 7, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Orioles are 10-0 since September 14, 2011 when playing a night game as a 140+ dog when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher after playing in a night game for a net profit of $1760.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Mets are 13-0 OU since May 14, 2011 when playing a day game when they blew a lead in their starter’s last start and lost for a net profit of $1300 when playing the over.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Dodgers are 0-10 since August 25, 2008 when Chad Billingsley starts on the road when he is off a start in which their team scored first and lost for a net profit of $1150 when playing against.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- Gavin Floyd has produced a team record of 12-0 (3.8 rpg) since September 29 2007 at home when his team lost as an away dog his last start, as long as his WHIP was over 0.75.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Angels are 6-0 since July 02, 2011 when Jered Weaver starts when the team is seeking immediate revenge for a loss as a favorite for a net profit of $600.

-- The Mariners are 6-0 since August 10, 2011 when Jason Vargas starts as a dog after the team lost their last three games for a net profit of $957.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's MLB Notes

July 7, 2012

Saturday’s pro baseball slate will feature three regionally televised games on FOX, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET.

Let’s break ‘em down!

Atlanta at Philadelphia

Are the Phillies done? After watching the Braves post a 5-0 shutout win on Friday, you can certainly ask that question. Philadelphia has dropped eight of its last nine games and is now 13 games behind Washington for first place in the National League East. The club has been banged up with injuries but it did just get back Ryan Howard last night and has had Chase Utley in the lineup for the past eight games.

Backing a team at home off a shutout loss is usually a good investment but chasing with Philadelphia these days is dangerous. Plus, the team will be facing the Braves’ Tommy Hanson (9-5, 3.70 ERA). Despite losing last Monday to the Cubs (1-4) at home Atlanta has won his previous five starts and are 11-6 overall in his 17 appearances.

Hanson has been better on the road this season, going 6-2 with a 2.89 ERA. He only faced Philadelphia once this season and he was tattooed for eight hits and four earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings.

The Phillies will counter with “Big” Joe Blanton (7-7, 4.85 ERA), who has helped the team to a 4-1 record in his last five appearances. Blanton faced the Braves in Atlanta on May 3 and tossed a three-hitter as the club won 4-0.

Atlanta has been made a short road favorite (-110), while the total is sitting at 9 runs. The ‘under’ has cashed in three of the first four meetings between the pair this season, including last night’s result.

If you want some more ammo to back up your Atlanta bet then you should look at Philadelphia’s record on the weekend. This season, the Phillies are 3-10 on Saturday and 3-11 on Sunday.

Minnesota at Texas

Possible trap here on the Rangers. Texas is laying a big price (-180) against Minnesota, who are playing good baseball lately. The Twins have won six of eight, including last night’s 5-1 win against Texas. In the loss, the Rangers’ Josh Hamilton (back) left the game and is ‘questionable’ tonight.

Texas is going to take the ball out of Yu Darvish’s hand and give it to Derek Holland (5-4, 5.10 ERA), who hasn’t pitched since June 3. And he didn’t pitch well in his latest rehab appearance, giving up three home runs in one inning at the Triple-A level. So why are Holland and the Rangers favored by so much?

Even without Hamilton, the Rangers do have the better lineup plus they’ll be facing the Twins’ Sam Deduno, who will be making his first career start. Deduno has pitched in the majors before with bullpen stints for the Rockies and Padres, but he’s never started. He was 1-2 with a 2.14 ERA in nine minor league starts.

The total is listed as high as 11 runs, which is the biggest number on the board. Minnesota has hit lefties (4.9 runs per game) well this season, plus the ball travels well in the Texas heat. Before you run and bet the ‘over’ on tonight’s matchup, make a note that all four encounters this season have gone ‘under’ the number.

N.Y. Yankees at Boston

The Yankees and Red Sox will play a double-header on Saturday with the first battle going at 12:35 p.m. ET before this contest. New York held off Boston 10-8 on Friday in a back-and-forth shootout. The Yankees have won all three encounters against the Sox this season, all coming at Fenway Park too.

Phil Hughes (9-6, 4.29 ERA) started the season off slow but he’s in great form lately. He’s 5-1 with a 2.59 ERA in his last six starts, which includes a 4-2 win over the Chicago White Sox last Sunday.

Boston’s Felix Doubront (8-4, 4.42) will toe the rubber in the nightcap. The lefthander will face a Yankees’ squad that is averaging a league-best 5.5 runs against southpaws this season. Those runs for New York have produced 16-10 record against lefties this season, 10 of the victories coming on the road.

The Red Sox have dropped four in a row and six of eight games. The problem with the club has been their offense. Over this span, they’ve been held to two runs or less in six of the games. Total players have watched the ‘under’ go 7-1 in Boston’s last eight games.

Doubront has been an ‘over’ pitcher (10-6) this season, especially at home (6-2). The ‘over/under’ is listed at 10 ½, which seems doable.

[StarDust Bum]

Weaver looks to remain perfect at home vs. O's

BALTIMORE ORIOLES (45-38)

at LOS ANGELES ANGELS (46-38)


First pitch: Saturday, 10:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -180, Baltimore +170, Total: 7

The surging Orioles look for their fourth win in five games when they take on the Angels and ace Jered Weaver on Saturday night.

Weaver has been incredible in his past three starts, allowing just one run in 19.2 innings. One of those outings was against Baltimore on June 27, when he went 6.2 innings, allowing one run on six hits, with one walk and six strikeouts. The Orioles pitcher that night, Jason Hammel, had his worst outing of the year, giving up eight runs on eight hits in just 3.1 innings. Although the O’s got the 3-2 win on Friday, the Angels have won five of their seven meetings this season, outscoring them 29-11 in the three previous games. Although Hammel is the best starter on Baltimore’s staff, nobody has been able to beat Weaver at home this season, as he’s 5-0 with a miniscule 0.70 ERA, .134 opponents’ BA and 0.57 WHIP in six starts at Angel Stadium. The money line is quite lopsided, but the right play here is Weaver to lead heavily-favored LOS ANGELES to the victory.

This rare four-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Angels:

Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (BALTIMORE) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL. (106-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.2%, +64 units. Rating = 4*).

Hammel (8-4, 3.43 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) has made just two career starts versus the Angels, with the other one coming way back in 2007 in Anaheim, when he took the loss despite a strong outing (6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K). But Hammel has been better on the road this season, posting a 3.35 ERA and 1.19 WHIP while leading the O’s to a 6-3 record. He has also racked up 59 K’s in 56.1 innings away from home. Hammel is coming off a poor outing in Seattle his last time out though, allowing four runs and seven hits in 6.2 innings, but he did fan eight batters and issued just two walks.

Weaver (9-1, 2.13 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) has made eight starts against the Orioles in his career, going 5-3 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. In the past three seasons, he’s allowed just seven runs and 22 hits in 29.2 innings, with 24 K’s and just three walks. The Angels are 11-3 in Weaver’s 14 starts this year and 32-9 as a favorite of -110 or higher in the past two seasons. It also helps to have Mike Trout on his team, as he is batting .415 with 5 HR and 7 SB in his past 16 games.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, July 7

Hot pitchers
-- McDonald is 3-0, 2.91 in his last three starts. Vogelsong is 3-1, 1.99 in his last seven starts.
-- Greinke is 4-0, 2.39 in his last seven starts.
-- Francis is 2-0, 2.14 in his last four starts. Washington won Gonzalez' last three starts (3-0, 5.82), scoring 25 runs.
-- Lohse is 3-1, 1.93 in his last six starts.
-- Hanson is 4-1, 3.96 in his last six starts.
-- Richard is 4-1, 2.19 in his last five starts.

-- Morales is 1-0, 2.50 in three starts this season. Hughes is 5-1, 2.59 in his last six starts.
-- Floyd is 2-1, 1.96 in his last three starts.
-- Moore is 4-0, 3.49 in his last six starts. Jimenez has a 2.95 RA in his last six starts.
-- Weaver is 3-0, 0.46 since coming off the DL.
-- Parker is 3-0, 1.01 in his last four starts. Vargas is 0-0, 1.84 in his last two starts, after giving up 10 runs in the start before those two.

Cold pitchers
-- Rodriguez is 0-2, 4.35 in his last three starts.
-- Samardzija is 1-4, 9.24 in his last five starts. Gee is 1-4, 4.88 in his last five starts.
-- Zambrano is 0-3, 9.82 in his last five starts.
-- Blanton has a 5.05 RA in his last nine starts.
-- Bailey is 1-2, 6.23 in his last three starts.
-- Billingsley is 0-4, 6.65 in his last four starts. Cahill is 1-2, 8.47 in his last three starts.

-- Doubront is 2-2, 6.59 in his last five starts. FGarcia is 0-2, 10.42 in his five starts this season.
-- Fister is 0-3, 11.93 in his last three starts. BChen is 1-2, 8.00 in his last four road starts.
-- Romero has an 8.40 RA in his last eight starts.
-- Holland has a 7.46 RA in his last five starts. Deduno is 1-2, 2.14 in nine AAA starts this year; he's made six big league relief appearances over last two years, but this is his first MLB start.
-- Hammel is 0-2, 10.80 in his last couple starts.

Hot Teams
-- Braves won eight of their last eleven road games.
-- Pirates won eight of their last ten games.
-- Washington won four of its last five games.
-- Cubs won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Miami won seven of its last nine games. Cardinals are 9-5 in their last fourteen games.
-- Dodgers won four of their last six games.
-- Padres won six of their last seven games.

-- Detroit won seven of its last ten home games.
-- Twins won six of their last eight games.
-- Bronx Bombers won 11 of their last 14 away games.
-- White Sox won seven of their last eight home games.
-- Indians won five of their last seven games.
-- Angels won five of their last seven home games.
-- A's won their last five games, allowing seven runs.

Cold Teams
-- Phillies lost eight of their last nine games.
-- San Francisco is 4-8 in its last twelve road games.
-- Mets lost four of their last six home games.
-- Colorado lost 21 of its last 29 games.
-- Houston lost its last nine games, outscored 51-19. Brewers lost five of their last eight road games.
-- Arizona lost eight of its last eleven games.
-- Reds lost eight of their last twelve games on foreign soil.

-- Rangers lost their last five games, allowing 34 runs.
-- Royals are 7-11 in their last eighteen road games.
-- Red Sox lost five of their last six games.
-- Tampa Bay lost eight of its last twelve games.
-- Toronto lost four of its last five road games.
-- Baltimore lost seven of its last eleven games.
-- Mariners are 5-10 in their last fifteen games.

Totals
-- Nine of last thirteen Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Over is 9-1-2 in last twelve Pittsburgh games.
-- Five of last six Colorado games stayed under the total.
-- Mets' last five games all went over the total.
-- Six of last nine Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Under is 13-4-1 in last eighteen games at Busch Stadium.
-- Seven of last eleven Dodger games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 14-2-1 in last seventeen Cincinnati games.

-- Eight of last ten Tampa Bay games stayed under total.
-- 12 of last 17 Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Texas games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 12-4 in last sixteen White Sox games.
-- Over is 12-4-1 in last seventeen Angel games.
-- 11 of last 12 Oakland games stayed under total.

Umpires
-- SF-Pitt-- Last nine TWelke games stayed under the total.
-- Mil-Hst-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven West games.
-- Col-Wsh-- Home team won Dimuro's last four games.
-- Chi-NY-- Underdogs won 12 of last 16 Nauert games.
-- Mia-StL-- Over is 7-3-1 in last eleven Davis games.
-- Atl-Phil-- Home side won ten of last twelve Davidson games.
-- Cin-SD-- Underdogs won 11 of last 15 Winters games.
-- LA-Az-- 11 of 16 O'Nora games went over the total.

-- NY-Bos-- Five of last six Hickox games stayed under. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Timmons games.
-- KC-Det-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Bucknor games, with home team 5-1 in those six.
-- Tor-Chi-- Underdogs won five of last eight Kulpa games.
-- TB-Cle-- Home team won eight of last ten Barry games.
-- Min-Tex-- Lefties are 5-2 vs righties with Foster behind plate.
-- Blt-LA-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Blaser games.
-- Sea-A's-- Underdogs won five of last seven BWelke games.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Saturday, July 7

Game Score Status Pick Amount

NY Yankees - 12:35 PM ET NY Yankees +102 500
Boston -

Colorado - 4:05 PM ET Washington -200 500
Washington - Under 8.5 500

Kansas City - 4:05 PM ET Kansas City +144 500
Detroit - Over 9.5 500

Milwaukee - 4:05 PM ET Houston +146 500
Houston - Over 7.5 500

San Francisco - 4:05 PM ET San Francisco +110 500
Pittsburgh - Under 8 500

Toronto - 4:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox -138 500
Chi. White Sox - Over 10.5 500

Miami - 4:10 PM ET St. Louis -148 500
St. Louis - Over 9 500

Chi. Cubs - 4:10 PM ET Chi. Cubs +137 500
NY Mets - Over 8 500

Tampa Bay - 6:05 PM ET Tampa Bay +113 500
Cleveland - Over 8.5 500

NY Yankees - 7:15 PM ET Boston -106 500
Boston -

Atlanta - 7:15 PM ET Atlanta -106 500
Philadelphia - Over 9 500

Minnesota - 7:15 PM ET Texas -202 500
Texas - Over 11 500

Baltimore - 10:05 PM ET LA Angels -179 500
LA Angels - Over 7 500

Cincinnati - 10:05 PM ET San Diego +105 500
San Diego - Under 6.5 500

Seattle - 10:10 PM ET Oakland -147 500
Oakland - Over 6.5 500

LA Dodgers - 10:10 PM ET Arizona -154 500
Arizona - Over 8.5 500

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WNBA

Saturday, July 7

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 7:00 PM ET Chicago +10 500
Indiana - Over 147 500

Connecticut - 8:00 PM ET Minnesota -9 500
Minnesota - Under 165 500

Atlanta - 10:00 PM ET Atlanta -6 500
Phoenix - Over 166.5 500

Seattle - 10:00 PM ET Seattle +6.5 500
Los Angeles - Under 148 500