The Bum's Thursday's MLB & WNBA Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Hamels & Phillies Face Dickey & Mets

A key NL East series draws to a close with an all-star pitching duel Thursday in New York where the Mets host the Philadelphia Phillies. The hosts will send RA Dickey to the mound at Citi Field for the 7:10 p.m. (ET) start, and the knuckleballer will be opposed by Philadelphia left-hander Cole Hamels.

Don Best is sending this game out with New York a $1.40 favorite and 7½ for the run total.

The fact that Hamels is the underdog is a surprise given his 10-4 record and 3.08 ERA. Two of his wins have come against the Mets, including a victory in late May in Flushing. However, the Phils managed to win just two of his six starts during the month of June, and Hamels has struggled historically both against the Mets and at Citi Field.

Dickey's great season is the primary reason why Hamels and the Phillies are the underdogs on Thursday. The Mets' right-hander is 12-1 with a 2.15 ERA and a very impressive 0.88 WHIP.

"Dickey definitely deserves to be the favorite in this baseball game," Don Best MLB analyst Kenny White said of the New York hurler. "The knuckleball, he throws it 87 percent of the time, and he can run it up there are 80 miles per hour. He has really mastered the knuckleball better than other knuckleballer in the history of this game."

Meanwhile out in San Diego, the Cincinnati Reds will be in town Thursday to begin a 4-game series with the Padres, and the long set will begin with an intriguing matchup between Mat Latos and Edinson Volquez. First pitch at Petco Park is 10:05 p.m. (ET) and the Reds are 140 road favorites with a 6½-run total shaded to the 'under.'

Latos and Volquez were traded for each other this past winter in a deal that also included Yonder Alonso, Brad Boxberger and Yasmani Grandal accompanying Volquez to San Diego. So far, Cincinnati has definitely gotten the better end of the deal with Latos coming off consecutive complete games and the Reds winning seven of his last eight starts.

Latos will be facing his former Padres teammates for the first time and pitched to a 3.11 ERA in 31 games at Petco Park from 2009-11.

Volquez has also won his last two outings and will be facing his old club for the first time Thursday. He has a decent enough 3.68 ERA for the season, but White doesn't think this will be a good matchup for the right-hander who turned 29 on Tuesday.

"He does not go deep into games, throws way too many pitches and works way too deep in the counts, and that will get him into trouble against a patient Reds team."

Stay up to date with all of the latest MLB news, notes and wagering info with the Don Best Pro Odds screen.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Thursday

July 5, 2012


Thursday’s pro baseball card features 10 games under the lights, seven in the National League and three in the American League. Rather than break down the sides, let’s look clearly at the totals for each contests. Let’s break ‘em down!
Astros at Pirates (7:05 p.m. ET)

The first series between these teams in May all went ‘under’ the number and now the first three games in this four-game set have all gone ‘over.’ Pittsburgh has produced an ‘over’ mark of 22-17 on the road but at home, the ‘under’ owns an eye-opening 25-12 (68%) record despite the three straight ‘over’ tickets in this series. Houston’s Bud Norris has watched the ‘over’ go 6-2 on the road, including three of the last four. However, when Norris faced the Pirates in Western Pennsylvania on May 11, his squad captured a 1-0 victory and the ‘under’ (7) was never in doubt.Tough to get a total read on Jeff Karstens at home, since he only has five starts on the season and one at home, which came on Apr. 7 against Philadelphia. Since he returned to the rotation in late June, his last two games saw 11 and 10 combined runs, both easy ‘over’ tickets. The total opened at 8 ½ and spiked to 9 at CRIS. Make a note that the Pirates haven’t seen a total over 9 at home all season, which tells you something. Also, the Astros traded Carlos Lee to the Marlins so that extra pop won’t be in the lineup tonight.

Giants at Nationals (7:05 p.m. ET)

The Giants haven’t seen a lot of high-scoring games in the Bay Area this season, which has helped the ‘under’ go 27-12 at home. However, the ‘over’ has gone 26-14 in San Francisco’s road games, which includes the first two games of this series against Washington. Even though the Giants’ Matt Cain has an ERA of 2.53, his total numbers are all even at 8-8. Like the rest of his staff, he’s received more support on the road (4.62 RPG). The Nationals’ Ross Detwiler has seen the ‘over’ cash in last five starts at home, rather easily too. The total is hovering around 7 ½ runs, which makes you wonder a little bit considering Cain hasn’t seen an ‘over/under’ this high in his last six starts.

Rays at Indians (7:05 p.m. ET)

Tampa Bay just completed a series with New York that saw the ‘under’ go 2-1, while Cleveland saw the ‘over’ go 2-1 in three battles against the Angels. The Tribe put up 21 runs the last two games after getting shutout in the opener to Los Angeles. The Rays’ Jeremy Hellickson has seen the ‘under’ go 9-3-2 in his 14 starts and that includes three straight ‘under’ tickets on the road. Cleveland’s Josh Tomlin has only received an average of 3.7 runs of support at home, which has helped produce a 4-2 ‘under’ mark. Most shops are offering a total of 9 ½ shaded to the ‘under’ (-115).

Royals at Blue Jays (7:05 p.m. ET)

This game has a real surprising total of 10, which seems a run too high. After watching the ‘over’ cash in five of his first six starts, the Royals’ Luke Hochevar has watched the ‘under’ go 9-1 in his last 10. The offense has helped the cause here, only providing 3.8 runs per game. We understand Toronto’s Henderson Alvarez isn’t an ace but the Blue Jays score for this guy. In his last three starts, all ‘over’ winners, the offense put up 26 runs. High number for a reason!

Cubs at Braves (7:10 p.m. ET)

The ‘under’ has cashed in five of the first six meetings this season, which includes two ‘under’ winners in this series. The pitchers for this battle have both been seen their share of shootouts this season. Chicago’s Matt Garza has seen the ‘over’ go 9-6, giving up a 5.56 ERA to boot. Also, Atlanta’s Mike Minor has watched the ‘over’ go 11-4, 5-1 to the ‘over’ at home, plus his ERA is 6.17 in Georgia. Thought we would see a total of 9 runs but the opener was 8 ½.

Phillies at Mets (7:10 p.m. ET)

When in doubt, bet the Philadelphia ‘over.’ The Phillies have watched the ‘over’ go 52-29 on the season and 28-14 on the road, both ranked first in the majors. Two good pitchers on the mound tonight with Cole Hamels (10-6) and R.A. Dickey (7-9), however both have had their share of ‘over’ winners. The ‘over/under’ has listed at 7 runs.

Rockies at Cardinals (8:15 p.m. ET)

Last season, the ‘under’ went 4-2 in the six meetings between the pair. That trend has continued this year with the ‘under’ going 2-1 in the first three encounters. That could change tonight as bettors are looking at a total of 9 ½ runs. The Rockies’ Christian Friedrich has watched the ‘over’ go 7-4 on the season but all four of the ‘under’ tickets have come on the road. He’s pitched well, 2.75 ERA compared to a 9.62 ERA at home. The Cardinals’ Lance Lynn has watched the ‘over’ go 11-5 on the season, which includes an 8-2 run in the last 10. Lynn has been aided with an average of 6.19 runs per game of support from St. Louis.

Dodgers at Diamondbacks (9:40 p.m. ET)

Possible ‘under’ look here with the Dodgers’ Nathan Eovaldi on the mound. He’s watched the ‘under’ go 6-1 in his seven starts, and Los Angeles is 0-7 over that span as well. The two teams have played three times in the desert this season and the ‘over’ has gone 2-1, with 15 combined runs posted in two of the games. Tonight’s total is 8 ½ runs at most shops, with a couple already moving up to 9.

Cincinnati at San Diego (10:05 p.m. ET)

This matchup has the lowest total (6 ½) on the board and deservingly so. San Diego’s offense hasn’t been sharp all season and the Reds have seen the ‘under’ go 25-15 on the road. During its current road trip, Cincinnati has watched the ‘under’ go 5-1-1 in the first seven games. The Reds’ Mat Latos has seen the ‘over’ go 9-7 but he’s been sharp in his last two outings (18 innings, 2 earned runs). San Diego’s Edinson Volquez, a former Red, has watched the ‘under’ go 10-7 in his 17 starts.

Orioles at Angels (10:05 p.m. ET)

The Orioles (42-37) and Angels (46-34) have both leaned towards the ‘under’ this season. Baltimore and Los Angeles have squared off five times this season and the ‘over’ has gone 3-2 in those games. The Angels have put up six or more runs in four of the five battles. Baltimore’s Jake Arrieta has seen the ‘over’ go 10-7 while the Angels’ Garrett Richards has watched the ‘under’ go 3-1 in his four starts. The total seems a little low (8.5) when you consider Arrieta’s ERA (5.81).

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Thursday

July 5, 2012


SU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Mets are 0-9 since June 17, 2011 as a home favorite after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $1061 when playing against.


OU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Angels are 0-14-2 OU since April 12, 2011 when playing a night game as a favorite after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $1400 when playing the under.


STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:


The Cubs are 11-0 OU since May 17, 2011 when Matt Garza starts when he is off a start in which he needed more than 4 pitches per batter for a net profit of $1100 when playing the over.


MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:


The Rays are 12-0 (2.8 rpg) since May 20, 2008 if not a -140 or greater favorite after a game where they struck out at least 14 times.


TODAY’S TRENDS:


The Pirates are 0-10 OU since June 01, 2010 when Jeff Karstens starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $1000 when playing the under.

The Rangers are 10-0 since July 17, 2011 when Matt Harrison starts as a road favorite for a net profit of $1000.

The Indians are 7-0 since April 05, 2011 when Josh Tomlin starts at home after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $758.

[StarDust Bum]

Dickey looks to stay hot vs. Phils Thursday

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (37-46)

at NEW YORK METS (44-38)


First pitch: Thursday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -125, Philadelphia +115, Total: 7

The Mets and Phillies will play the rubber game of a three-game set as the two NL East foes battle in New York.

R.A. Dickey takes the hill again in this one, after completing a spectacular month of June in which he pitched two one-hitters, totaling a 5-0 record, 0.93 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, .131 opponents’ BA and 55 strikeouts in 48.1 innings. But he faces Phils lefty Cole Hamels, who has a 3.08 ERA on the season and a 2.05 ERA in his past three outings. But the Phillies have been struggling mightily lately, as their Wednesday win snapped a six-game losing skid. The Mets are also 7-4 versus Philadelphia this season and hold a 17-12 record (.586) record vs. NL East opponents this season. And whereas Dickey has owned the Phillies with a 2.40 ERA and 1.18 WHIP against them in his seven career starts, Hamels is just 5-10 versus the Mets in his career with a 4.34 ERA and hefty 1.47 WHIP. Take favored NEW YORK behind Dickey to clinch the series.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Mets:

PHILADELPHIA is 8-20 (28.6%, -16.1 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 4.1, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 3*).

The Phillies have been dreadful versus NL East opponents this season, with an 11-18 record (.379). The good news for Phillies fans is that Hamels has won both of his starts in 2012 versus the Mets, posting a 3.60 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 16 K’s in 15 innings. The key for him is limiting home runs—despite his strong numbers, he has allowed 12 long balls, six of which have come in his seven road starts. He will also need to keep his control, having allowed three walks in three consecutive starts, especially considering the Mets have drawn the most walks in the National League (279). Play against.

Dickey’s incredible month of June earned him NL Pitcher of the Month honors. His one start in 2012 versus Philadelphia on April 13 was a win, whiffing seven in as many innings, allowing just one run. The key for him is going deep in games, which he can do quite effectively, averaging more than seven per start this season. Minimizing the action of the New York bullpen is best for him, considering their 5.11 ERA and 1.49 WHIP on the season. Dickey (2.15 ERA, 0.89 WHIP) has been even better at home this season, going 6-0 with a 1.85 ERA and 0.84 WHIP Take the favorites here.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, July 5

Hot pitchers
-- Buehrle is 2-0, 1.29 in his last couple starts. Fiers is 2-0, 0.44 in his last three outings.
-- Cain is 5-1, 2.74 in his last seven starts. Detwiler is 0-0, 3.09 in his two starts since getting put back in rotation.
-- Dickey is 7-0, 1.01 in his last eight starts. Hamels is 1-1, 2.05 in his last three starts.
-- Miley is 3-0, 1.17 in his last three home starts.
-- Former Padre Latos is 2-0, 1.00 in his last couple starts. Former Red Volquez is 2-0, 1.42 in his last two outings.

-- Porcello is 2-1, 1.35 in his last three starts. Diamond is 2-0, 2.81 in his last two starts.
-- Harrison is 8-0, 1.42 in his last eight starts. Quintana is 3-1, 2.51 in seven starts this season.
-- Hochevar is 2-1, 1.95 in his last four starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Astros lost last five Norris starts (0-4, 9.55). Karstens is 1-2, 5.63 in his five starts this season.
-- Minor is 1-2, 8.81 in his last three starts. Garza is 2-2, 4.81 in his last four starts.
-- Friedrich is 0-4, 7.77 in his last five starts. Lynn is 0-2, 9.98 in his last three starts.
-- Dodgers were outscored 25-5 in losing all seven Eovaldi starts (0-3, 8.82 in his last three outings).

-- Tomlin is 1-2, 8.24 in his last four starts. Hellickson is 0-3, 5.57 in his last six starts.
-- Toronto is 0-7 at home with Alvarez if it scores less than seven runs.
-- Richards allowed 13 runs in 11 IP in his last two starts. Arrieta is 0-1, 5.40 in his last three starts.

Hot Teams
-- Pirates won seven of their last eight games.
-- Mets won five of their last seven games.
-- Cubs won seven of their last nine games.
-- Milwaukee/Miami both won five of their last seven games.
-- Cardinals won eight of their last twelve games.
-- Dodgers won three of their last four games.
-- Padres won their last five games, scoring 33 runs.

-- Twins won five of their last six games.
-- White Sox won five of their last six home games.
-- Blue Jays won seven of their last ten home games.
-- Indians won four of last five games, scoring 38 runs in the wins, getting shut out in the loss.

Cold Teams
-- Nationals are 4-5 in their last nine home games. San Francisco is 3-7 in its last ten road games.
-- Houston was outscored 58-23 in losing its last nine road games.
-- Phillies lost six of their last seven games.
-- Atlanta lost 11 of its last 15 home games.
-- Colorado lost 20 of its last 27 games.
-- Arizona lost seven of its last nine games.
-- Reds lost seven of their last ten games on foreign soil.

-- Tigers are 2-5 in game after their last seven wins.
-- Rangers lost their last three games, allowing 27 runs.
-- Royals are 6-10 in their last sixteen road games.
-- Tampa Bay lost seven of its last ten games.
-- Baltimore lost six of its last nine games. Angels lost four of six.

Totals
-- Nine of last ten games at Miller Park went over.
-- 15 of last 19 Houston road games went over the total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight San Francisco games.
-- Eight of last eleven Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-2-1 in Philly's last ten games.
-- Under is 11-4-1 in last sixteen games at Busch Stadium.
-- Six of last nine Dodger games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 12-2-1 in last fifteen Cincinnati games.

-- Seven of last eight Tampa Bay games stayed under total.
-- Ten of last fourteen Kansas City road games stayed under.
-- 11 of last 15 Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 10-4 in last fourteen White Sox games.
-- Over is 11-3-1 in last fifteen Angel games.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Thursday, July 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tampa Bay - 7:05 PM ET Tampa Bay +104 500
Cleveland - Over 9.5 500

San Francisco - 7:05 PM ET San Francisco -118 500
Washington - Over 7.5 500

Houston - 7:05 PM ET Pittsburgh -131 500
Pittsburgh - Over 8.5 500

Kansas City - 7:07 PM ET Toronto -137 500
Toronto - Under 10 500

Chi. Cubs - 7:10 PM ET Chi. Cubs +131 500
Atlanta - Over 8 500

Philadelphia - 7:10 PM ET NY Mets -112 500
NY Mets - Under 7 500

Colorado - 8:15 PM ET Colorado +169 500
St. Louis - Over 9.5 500

LA Dodgers - 9:40 PM ET Arizona -178 500
Arizona - Over 8.5 500

Baltimore - 10:05 PM ET Baltimore +134 500
LA Angels - Under 8.5 500

Cincinnati - 10:05 PM ET Cincinnati -132 500
San Diego - Under 6.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

WNBA

Thursday, July 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Minnesota - 3:00 PM ET Los Angeles +4.5 500
Los Angeles - Over 163.5 500

San Antonio - 7:00 PM ET Indiana -7 500
Indiana - Over 156 500