Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 07-04-2012, 01:14 PM

Fireworks Expected For Cardinals & Rockies

Fourth of July baseball has a full slate of games all day long, including some offensive fireworks expected between the St. Louis Cardinals and Colorado Rockies at 7:15 p.m. (ET).

We first have some late news for Tuesday night. New York is at Tampa Bay where the Bronx Bombers have lost all four meetings this year and the last eight dating back to last season. That’s surprising given the amount of Yanks fans that usually adorn Tropicana Field.

Ivan Nova (9-2, 4.03 ERA) pitches for the visitors and is a -125 favorite on the Don Best odds screen. The total is eight runs (‘over’ -120). He was 3-0 with a 1.26 ERA in five June starts and is 4-0 in six lifetime starts in Tampa Bay.

The 25-year-old Nova simply knows how to win games, going 26-8 all-time in the majors.

James Shields (7-5, 4.04 ERA) is pitching for Tampa. He tied a club record by allowing 14 hits in his last outing vs. Detroit. He struggled with his changeup in that contest and Tampa is 1-5 in his last six games overall (4.78 ERA).

Shields’ ERA is better at home this year (3.86), although having just a 2-3 mark. Don Best MLB analyst Kenny White points out that his Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) is a bit unfortunate at .329, so expect his ERA to go down.

Switching back to the Cards and Rockies, the pitching battle is Adam Wainwright (6-8, 4.75 ERA) vs. Jeremy Guthrie (3-7, 6.56 ERA). The Cardinals are 180 home favorites with a total of nine.

Don Best’s Pat Williams loves the ‘over’ in this contest, thinking St. Louis can come close to the nine runs itself. The lineup has more than made up for the loss of slugger Albert Pujols at over five runs scored per game (first in the NL).

The 33-year-old right-hander Guthrie shouldn’t even be starting games at this point, pitching out of the 'pen his last four outings. The Rockies have been starting all lefties in a 4-man rotation recently and limiting pitch counts to 75, but the unorthodox experiment is not working.

Guthrie has at least pitched better away from Coors Field this year, 3.89 ERA in eight appearances (six starts). Wainwright isn’t having a great year coming off injury. He allowed seven earned runs last start vs. Pittsburgh, the third time he’s reached that number this season.

Wainwright’s BABIP is .326, so he’s also had some bad luck and should improve on his ERA going forward.

The Texas Rangers at the Chicago White Sox is another one to watch on Wednesday. This could be another ‘over’ game with Texas’ Scott Feldman (2-6, 6.13 ERA) going against Dylan Axelrod (0-1, 4.50 ERA).

The 26-year-old Axelrod is in his third stint in the big leagues and is making his fourth start this year. He’s not overpowering with an 89 mph fastball and is also a fly-ball pitcher. That is not a good combination at U.S. Cellular Field.

Don Best is sending out this game as a pick ‘em with the run total set at 10.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-04-2012, 01:18 PM

Around the Horn - Wednesday

July 4, 2012

NATIONAL LEAGUE

San Francisco at Washington - 11:05 AM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Bumgarner (10-4, 2.85 ERA) 45-36 OVER 6-0 L6 away Game 2's
Jackson (4-4, 3.57 ERA) 46-32 2-5 L7 home during day

Nationals beat Giants, 9-3 on Tuesday

Philadelphia at N.Y. Mets - 1:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Lee (0-5, 4.13 ERA) 36-46 1-8 L9 away during day
Young (2-1, 3.30 ERA) 44-37 OVER 6-1 L7 home vs LHP

Mets beat Phillies, 11-1 on Tuesday

Houston at Pittsburgh - 1:35 PM EST (Game 3/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Keuchel (1-0, 1.35 ERA) 32-49 3-12 L15 away during day
Correia (4-6, 4.32 ERA) 44-36 UNDER 11-2 L13 home during day

Pirates beat Astros, 11-2 on Monday
Pirates beat Astros, 8-7 on Tuesday

Miami at Milwaukee - 4:10 PM EST (Game 3/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Johnson (5-5, 3.80 ERA) 38-42 5-2 L7 away vs LHP
Wolf (2-6, 5.78 ERA) 38-42 6-1 L7 home Game 3's

Brewers beat Marlins, 6-5 on Monday
Brewers beat Marlins, 13-12 on Tuesday

Chicago at Atlanta - 7:10 PM EST (Game 3/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Maholm (5-6, 4.84 ERA) 30-50 3-8 L11 away Game 3's
Delgado (4-8, 4.52 ERA) 42-38 1-10 L11 home vs LHP

Cubs beat Braves, 4-1 on Monday
Braves beat Cubs, 10-3 on Tuesday

Colorado at St. Louis - 7:15 PM EST (Game 3/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Guthrie (3-7, 6.56 ERA) 31-49 9-18 L27 away vs RHP
Wainwright (6-8, 4.75 ERA) 42-39 UNDER 7-2 L9 home vs RHP

Cardinals beat Rockies, 9-3 on Monday
Rockies beat Cardinals, 3-2 on Tuesday

Cincinnati at Los Angeles - 9:10 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Leake (3-5, 4.12 ERA) 44-36 UNDER 9-2 L11 away Game 3's
Harang (5-5, 3.68 ERA) 45-37 8-4 L12 home Game 3's

Reds beat Dodgers, 8-2 on Monday
Dodgers beat Reds, 3-1 on Tuesday

San Diego at Arizona - 9:40 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Marquis (1-4, 3.06 ERA) 32-50 3-9 L12 away Game 3's
Kennedy (6-7, 4.20 ERA) 39-41 4-8 L12 on Wednesdays

Padres beat Diamondbacks, 6-2 on Monday
Padres beat Diamondbacks, 9-5 on Tuesday

AMERICAN LEAGUE

N.Y. Yankees at Tampa Bay - 3:10 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Phelps (1-3, 3.16 ERA) 48-32 9-4 L13 away vs LHP
Price (11-4, 2.92 ERA) 43-38 3-5 L8 home Game 3's

Rays beat Yankees, 4-3 on Monday
Rays beat Yankees, 7-4 on Tuesday

Los Angeles at Cleveland - 4:05 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Santana (4-8, 5.12 ERA) 45-36 5-1 L6 away during day
Lowe (7-6, 4.42 ERA) 41-39 2-5 L7 home Game 3's

Angels beat Indians, 3-0 on Monday
Indians beat Angels, 9-5 on Tuesday

Boston at Oakland - 4:05 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Morales (1-1, 2.59 ERA) 42-39 4-7 L11 away during day
Griffin (0-0, 1.50 ERA) 40-42 7-3 L10 home during day

Athletics beat Red Sox, 6-1 on Monday
Athletics beat Red Sox, 3-2 on Tuesday

Baltimore at Seattle - 4:05 PM EST (Game 3/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Tillman (NR) 43-37 8-3 L11 away during day
Noesi (2-10, 5.69 ERA) 35-48 4-9 L13 home vs RHP

Mariners beat Orioles, 6-3 on Monday
Orioles beat Mariners, 5-4 on Tuesday

Minnesota at Detroit - 7:05 PM EST (Game 3/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Duensing (1-4, 4.10 ERA) 35-45 4-7 L11 away Game 3's
Verlander (8-5, 2.69 ERA) 39-42 2-13 L15 vs LHP

Twins beat Tigers, 6-4 on Monday
Twins beat Tigers, 8-6 on Tuesday

Kansas City at Toronto - 7:05 PM EST (Game 3/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Mendoza (3-4, 4.50 ERA) 36-43 OVER 7-4 L11 away vs RHP
Villanueva (2-0, 3.52 ERA) 41-40 8-3 L11 home Game 3's

Royals beat Blue Jays, 11-3 on Monday
Blue Jays beat Royals, 6-3 on Tuesday

Texas at Chicago - 7:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Feldman (2-6, 6.13 ERA) 50-31 6-2 L8 Game 2's
Axelrod (0-1, 4.50 ERA) 43-37 UNDER 5-1 L6 on Wednesdays

White Sox beat Rangers, 19-2 on Tuesday

**StarDust Bum** · 07-04-2012, 01:19 PM

Diamond Trends - Wednesday

July 4, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Cubs are 0-14 since June 04, 2011 as a 140+ dog when they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1400 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Rockies are 0-10 OU since July 10, 2011 as a dog after a win in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $1000 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Tigers are 10-0 since May 07, 2011 when Justin Verlander starts when the bullpen allowed at least three runs yesterday for a net profit of $1000.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

The Rays are 11-0 (2.6 rpg) since 2011 when going for a three game sweep.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Pirates are 0-5 since April 24, 2011 when Kevin Correia starts as a favorite after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $561 when playing against.

The Diamondbacks are 7-0 since July 21, 2011 when Ian Kennedy starts as a home favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $700.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-04-2012, 01:21 PM

Rangers try to bounce back on the 4th

TEXAS RANGERS (50-31)

at CHICAGO WHITE SOX (43-37)

First pitch: Wednesday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -115, Chicago +105, Total: 10

The divisional leaders in the AL Central and West will square off for some Independence Day baseball when the White Sox and Rangers play the second game of a three-game set.

The Rangers lost game one of the series and their second in a row, despite having won five in a row and 13-of-15 before that. With the 19-2 win on Tuesday, the White Sox registered their third double-digit run performance in their past five games. Scott Feldman takes the hill for Texas with a 6.52 ERA and 1.60 WHIP as a starter this season. In road starts, the numbers are even worse -- 8.83 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. He goes against Dylan Axelrod, who has just three starts on the season with a 4.86 ERA in those outings. In his last time out, he held the Yankees to six hits and two earned runs in seven innings, in Yankee Stadium. The White Sox are just 20-21 at home this season, but they have won three in a row there and facing such a struggling pitcher, should be able to move that mark up to .500. As a home underdog, take CHICAGO to win.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the White Sox:

Play On - Any team (CHI WHITE SOX) - after a game where they had at least 10 more hits than their opponent, with a struggling bullpen whose WHIP is over 1.750 the last 10 games. (100-59 since 1997.) (62.9%, +47 units. Rating = 3*).

In Feldman’s last start, he allowed nine hits and three home runs to the A’s, while he now faces the team with the fifth-most home runs in baseball (99) and 12 in their past five contests. Feldman has started against the White Sox five times in his career, but not since 2010. In those starts, he has a 3.98 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Averaging fewer than five innings per start this season, Feldman’s saving grace in this game could be the Texas bullpen. Rangers relievers have a 3.31 ERA and 1.08 WHIP this season, numbers that drop to 2.50 and 0.99 on the road, respectively. Still, as favorites, play against.

Axelrod enters this game never having pitched against the Rangers in his career. But he’ll be supported by an offense with the sixth-most runs in baseball (387) and fortunately for him, he’s facing one of the most hittable starters in MLB. Although the White Sox bullpen has 12 blown saves already this season, compared to just 16 saves, the numbers suggest they deserve better with a 3.83 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Go with the home team on this July 4.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-04-2012, 01:26 PM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, July 4

Hot pitchers
-- Bumgarner is 5-0, 2.62 in his last six starts. Jackson has a 2.57 RA in his last three home starts.
-- Young is 2-1, 3.90 in five starts for the Mets.
-- Keuchel is 1-0, 1.35 in his first three starts. Correia is 2-0, 3.86 in his last three outings.
-- JJohnson is 2-2, 1.87 in his last five starts.
-- Leake is 1-0, 1.50 in his last three starts.

-- Price is 3-0, 3.00 in his last three starts.
-- Griffin is 0-0, 1.50 in two starts for Oakland. Cook is 2-0, 1.93 in his last couple starts.
-- Mendoza is 1-1, 2.96 in his last four starts.
-- Verlander is 3-1, 3.30 in his last four starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Lee is winless in 13 starts, 0-2, 7.30 in his last four.
-- Wolf is 0-1, 9.77 in his last three starts.
-- Delgado is 0-3, 6.38 in his last four starts. Maholm is 0-3, 10.38 in his last three road starts.
-- Guthrie is 0-3, 14.30 in his last three starts. Wainwright is 2-3, 5.21 in his last six starts.
-- Kennedy is 1-2, 5.76 in his last four starts. Marquis is 0-3, 5.85 in his last three outings.
-- Harang is 0-2, 6.46 in his last three starts.

-- Bronx lost both Phelps starts (0-1, 2.08); he didn't finish 5th inning in either one of them.
-- Lowe is 0-3, 8.68 in his last five starts. ESantana is 2-2, 6.18 in his last five outings.
-- Noesi is 0-4, 5.25 in his last four starts; Mariners scored one run total in the four games. This is Tillman's first '12 start; he is 7-15, 5.58 in 36 starts from 2009-11. He is 8-8, 3.63 in AAA this season.
-- Villanueva allowed three runs in five IP in his first '12 start.
-- Duensing is 0-2, 9.00 in two starts this season.
-- Feldman is 2-5, 9.00 in his last seven starts. Axelrod is 0-1, 4.86 in three starts this season.

Hot Teams
-- Pirates won six of their last seven games.
-- Mets won five of their last six games.
-- Cubs won six of their last eight games.
-- Milwaukee won five of its last six games. Miami won four of six.
-- Cardinals won seven of their last eleven games.
-- Padres are 10-5 in their last fifteen road games.

-- Angels won 11 of their last 16 games.
-- Twins won their last five games, scoring 36 runs.
-- Tampa Bay won its last nine home games vs Bronx Bombers.
-- Texas won five of its last seven games. White Sox won four of their last five home games.
-- Oakland won six of its last eight home games.

Cold Teams
-- Nationals lost five of their last eight home games. San Francisco is 3-6 in its last nine road games.
-- Houston was outscored 52-19 in losing its last eight road games.
-- Phillies lost their last six games, allowing 41 runs.
-- Atlanta lost ten of its last fourteen home games.
-- Colorado lost 19 of its last 26 games.
-- Arizona lost six of its last eight games.
-- Dodgers lost 13 of their last 17 games. Reds lost six of their last nine on foreign soil.

-- Indians lost seven of their last eleven games.
-- Tigers are 6-8 in their last fourteen games.
-- Royals are 6-9 in their last fifteen road games. Toronto is 4-6 in last 10.
-- Bronx Bombers lost four of their last six games.
-- Red Sox lost four of their last six games.
-- Mariners lost 15 of their last 23 games; Baltimore lost seven of its last ten games.

Totals
-- Eight of last nine games at Miller Park went over.
-- 14 of last 18 Houston road games went over the total.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven San Francisco games.
-- Eight of last ten Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Six of last nine games at Citi Field stayed under.
-- Seven of last eleven St Louis games went over the total.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in Kennedy's last five starts, 0-3-1 in Marquis' last four.
-- Under is 11-2-1 in last fourteen Cincinnati games.

-- Over is 10-3-1 in last fourteen Angel games.
-- Nine of last thirteen Kansas City road games stayed under.
-- Ten of last fourteen Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Bronx games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 9-4 in last thirteen White Sox games.
-- Under is 12-3-1 in last sixteen Oakland games.
-- Eight of last ten Seattle games stayed under the total.

Umpires
-- Mia-Mil-- Eight of last ten Bellino games stayed under.
-- SF-Wsh-- Underdogs are 8-6 in last fourteen Meals games.
-- Hst-Pitt-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Cuzzi games.
-- Phil-NY-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Timmons games.
-- Chi-Atl-- Six of last eight Reynolds games went over total.
-- Col-StL-- Road team won eight of last ten Porter games.
-- SD-Az-- Nine of last ten Barksdale games stayed under.
-- Cin-LA-- Eight of last eleven Guccione games went over.

-- LA-Cle-- Over is 11-6 this season with Wolf behind plate.
-- Min-Det-- Five of last seven Eddings games went over total.
-- KC-Tor-- Over is 7-1-1 in last nine Conroy games.
-- NY-TB-- Road team is 7-3 in Estabrook games this year.
-- Tex-Chi-- 10 of last 13 Miller games stayed under the total.
-- Bos-A's-- Baker's only previous game behind plate stayed under.
-- Balt-Sea-- 10 of last 14 Wegner games stayed under the total.

Announcement

The Bum's 4th of July Fireworks !

The Bum's 4th of July Fireworks !

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