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  • The Bum's Monday's MLB Best Bets !

    Nationals Begin New Week At Toronto Blue Jays

    Picked to dominate the AL Central Division this season, it has instead been a struggle for the Detroit Tigers who were five games under .500 and six games behind the Chicago White Sox in the standings when the weekend began.

    Cincinnati was also picked to contend if not win the NL Central, and the Reds have not disappointed so far with the lead over a surprising Pittsburgh Pirates squad and the defending World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals.

    The Reds and Tigers collide to finish off the weekend on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball (8:00 p.m. ET) from Great American Ball Park. Detroit is sending rookie Drew Smyly to start the contest in Cincinnati against Homer Bailey. Don Best is sending this game out with the Reds a $1.30 favorite and the run total at 9½.

    Don Best Sports analyst Pat Williams believes Smyly (2-2, 3.71) is one of the reasons the Tigers can't get on a roll due to his inconsistencies on the mound, but Kenny White disagrees.

    "Let's don't blame it on Drew Smyly," White noted when discussing this matchup. "He's 23...and I like his strikeout to walk numbers. Drew Smyly's going to be a really good major league pitcher."

    Detroit has dropped five of Smyly's last six starts, and is 5-6 when he takes the ball this season, but the young left-hander still maintains a decent ERA and owns a 55:17 K/BB ratio in his first 60-2/3 innings.

    White also believes Bailey (4-4, 4.39) will need to develop a third pitch to complement his fastball-slider combination before he will begin to develop into the pitcher he's always been touted as being. Bailey pitched the Reds into the winner's circle four consecutive starts before his last outing at home vs. Pittsburgh. The Pirates scored six times in the first three innings to chase Bailey early in an 8-4 win on June 5, that start coming seven days after Bailey had tossed a complete-game 4-hitter against then in Pittsburgh.

    The pitching matchup could play right into the strengths of both lineups. Detroit is batting .273 vs. right-handers, 30 points higher than when the Tigers face southpaws, while Cincinnati is slugging at a .456 clip vs. lefties, well above their numbers against righties.

    Nats Begin Week In Toronto
    A new week dawns on Monday when the Washington Nationals trek across the border to meet the Toronto Blue Jays in the opener of a 3-game set. First pitch at Rogers Centre is 7:07 p.m. (ET) with a pitching battle between Washington's Edwin Jackson and Toronto's Brandon Morrow.

    Jackson is sporting a very good 3.11 ERA, but hasn't had much luck or run support with the Nationals just 3-8 in his 11 starts. That's been the case most of his career as Jackson certainly has the stuff to be a solid major league starter, but it hasn't materialized into a lot of success for the well-traveled right-hander.

    "When he came up with the Dodgers, they thought he was going to be the next great Los Angeles Dodger pitcher," White said. "He's been coveted by six major league teams that thought he could also be the same with them. But finally this year, he's having one of the best seasons he's ever had."

    Washington started its weekend series in Boston with a slim 1-game lead at the top of a wide-open NL East that found the favored Philadelphia Phillies in last. Williams wonders if the Nationals can score enough runs over the course of a full season to make the playoffs for the first time since 1981 when they were known as the Montreal Expos.

    The AL East also looks a bit upside down with the Red Sox at the bottom, and one of the reasons the Blue Jays are in the thick of the race is their starter on Monday. Morrow is 7-3 with a 2.90 ERA, and that ERA is even more impressive when you note he allowed six earned runs in two-third of an inning a couple of starts back in Texas.

    Morrow leads the major leagues with three shutouts, the most recent in his last start against the White Sox in Chicago on June 6. His ERA is more than two runs higher in six starts at home (3.89) than the half-dozen Morrow has made on the road (1.88). Five of the seven home runs were also hit at Rogers Centre.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  • #2
    Diamond Trends - Monday

    June 11, 2012

    SU TREND OF THE DAY:


    The Nationals are 12-0 since June 02, 2011 after a one run win in a day game where they had more than three hits for a net profit of $1473.

    OU TREND OF THE DAY:


    The Red Sox are 0-13 OU since 2008 when Josh Beckett starts on the road when he is off a start in which he needed fewer than 3.5 pitches per batter for a net profit of $1300 when playing the under.


    STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:


    The Blue Jays are 0-7 since May 26, 2011 when Brandon Morrow starts as a favorite in the first game of a series for a net profit of $982 when playing against.


    MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:


    The Dodgers are 13-1 (3.7 rpg) since 2011 as a favorite after a 5+ run win.


    TODAY’S TRENDS:


    The Blue Jays are 7-0-1 OU since July 20, 2011 when Brandon Morrow starts at home after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $700 when playing the over.

    The Red Sox are 0-5-1 OU since April 05, 2011 when Josh Beckett starts on the road in the first game of a series for a net profit of $500 when playing the under.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #3
      Monday's Interleague Tips

      June 10, 2012


      The Monday baseball card showcases only four games, but each contest involves solid matchups. Interleague continues with a huge rivalry taking place in Southern California as the Dodgers host the Angels for the first time this season. The other three games spotlight the AL East against its NL East counterparts, including Washington heading north of the border for a battle in Toronto.

      Nationals at Blue Jays - 7:05 PM EST

      Washington continues to be one of the biggest surprises in baseball as the Nats continue to lead the NL East nearly 2 ½ months into the season. The Blue Jays have to deal with the Yankees and Rays inside the tight AL East race, as Toronto tries to win its second straight game after avoiding the sweep in Atlanta on Sunday.

      The Nationals haven't been successful when Edwin Jackson takes the mound this season (3-8 team record), even though the veteran right-hander owns a 3.11 ERA. Jackson won the first time in two months by beating the Mets in his most recent outing, allowing three hits and two earned runs in 7 innings of a 5-3 victory. Washington is 0-6 in Jackson's six road outings, while the Nats have scored one run in three of those defeats.

      Brandon Morrow (7-3, 2.90 ERA) is turning into an early Cy Young candidate, coming off his third complete game shutout. Morrow blanked the White Sox as a short road favorite in his last start, scattering less than three hits for the fourth time this season in a 4-0 triumph. The Toronto righty has won three of his past four home starts after the Jays lost his first two outings at Rogers Center to the Orioles and Rays.

      Yankees at Braves - 7:10 PM EST

      The Bronx Bombers hit the road for the first time in interleague play as the Yanks head to Turner Field. Atlanta continues a nine-game homestand after having its six-game winning streak snapped by Toronto on Sunday. The Yankees are making their first trip to Atlanta since 2009, when New York grabbed two of three matchups.

      Ivan Nova (7-2, 5.09 ERA) continues to rack up wins despite allowing five earned runs or more in five of his previous eight outings. New York's offense has scored at least five runs in nine of Nova's 11 starts, while the Yankees have hit the 'over' in four of his last five trips to the mound. Nova is unbeaten on the road in five starts away from the Bronx, while the Yanks are 4-1 in his five career interleague outings.

      The Braves counter with Randall Delgado (4-5, 4.26 ERA), who has lost three of his last four home starts. The 22-year old puts together better numbers at night (4-2, 3.68 ERA) than during the day (0-3, 5.71 ERA), while Atlanta is 15-6 since 2010 at Turner Field in interleague action.

      Red Sox at Marlins - 7:10 PM EST

      Miami is falling apart at nearly the same rate as it came together in an impressive May run (21-8), as the Fish owns a 2-7 record in the month of June. Ozzie Guillen's team looks to get on track against a Red Sox club that exits Fenway Park after getting swept by the Nationals. The Marlins will see an old World Series hero for the first time as both squads try to get on a winning track.

      Josh Beckett (4-6, 4.04 ERA) makes his first start against the team he led to a title in 2003, as the Sox righty is coming off consecutive home defeats to the Orioles and Tigers. Since June 2009, the Red Sox own a 4-1 record in Beckett's last five interleague starts, as all five games have finished 'under' the total. In Beckett's only interleague action this season, the 32-year old allowed one earned run in seven innings of a 5-1 road underdog victory at Philadelphia last month.

      The Marlins send out their tall right-hander in Josh Johnson (3-4, 4.56 ERA), who looks to stay hot after going winless in his first five starts. Miami has won five of Johnson's previous six outings, while coming off a 2-1 home defeat to Atlanta in his last start. The offense attempts to get on track after plating just 10 runs during this six-game losing streak, including five setbacks as home 'chalk.'

      Angels at Dodgers - 10:10 PM EST

      The Freeway Series takes on plenty of meaning in the first of six meetings this month, as the Dodgers own the best record in baseball at 39-22. The Halos are becoming the team many expected in spring training by winning nine of the past 13 games, including a series victory at Colorado this past weekend. In spite of getting no-hit on Friday, the Dodgers took two of three from the Mariners, while winning six of the previous seven contests.

      The Dodgers picked up a steal in the offseason by signing veteran southpaw Chris Capuano (8-2, 2.82 ERA), who looks to rebound after allowing four earned runs in each of his last two outings. Los Angeles owns a 5-0 record in Capuano's five home starts, while putting together quality outings in all five outings at Chavez Ravine.

      The Angels have won nine of the last 12 meetings with the Dodgers dating back to 2010, including a 5-1 record at Chavez Ravine in this span. Garrett Richards (1-0, 1.12 ERA) makes his second start of the season, in place of the injured Jered Weaver. Richards beat the Mariners in his season debut, giving up one earned run and four hits in seven innings of work.
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #4
        MLB Betting Notes

        June 11, 2012

        PA Power

        It’s very rare when you see baseball’s worst scoring team contending for a division title, but that’s where the Pittsburgh Pirates (32-27) are right now. The clubs is neck and neck with the Reds in the National League Central despite being the 30th ranked run (188) producing team in the majors. The Bucs also have the 29th worst hitting squad (.225) and aren’t the best bunch of fielders, either, but they seem to find new ways to win on a nightly basis.
        As a comparison, consider that the Rangers top both leagues with a .285 clip and 322 runs scored, yet, through Sunday Texas would only have a one-game lead in the loss column over the Pirates if they were in the same division.

        No team is hotter than Pittsburgh right now. The squad has won 12 of their last 15 games and has done so on the strength of a solid pitching staff and they make the most of their few hits in timely situations. Where they lack strength in hitting numbers, they make up for it by having the third lowest ERA (3.25) with the arguably the best bullpen in baseball.

        The Pirates bullpen has the second lowest ERA (2.44) and the best record (12-4). Plus, they’ve blown only four save opportunities -- tied for the lowest in baseball. They routinely find themselves in low-scoring games where they are either down or up by only one run. Whatever situation it is, the bullpen seems to keep time and the score standing still until the bats can finally come around or get to Joel Harahan (3-0, 17 saves) for the final inning.

        The Las Vegas bookmakers have taken notice of the Pirates and rapidly adjusted their daily rating on them. Pittsburgh has gone UNDER the total in 38 of its 59 games, including six of their last seven through Sunday. Good luck finding an ‘8’ on a Pirates game anymore unless they face a real tomato can.

        A rating boost in individual Pirates pitchers has also been seen in regards to the money-line, most notably A.J. Burnett, who the Bucs have now won seven straight games behind. At first we all thought a couple Burnett gems to start out his tenure in Pittsburgh was kind of fluky, but seven straight wins is seven straight wins and the lines now reflect such excellence.

        Sunday’s game against a hot Bruce Chen saw Burnett favored by minus-130, the highest number Burnett has been all season. Sharp money bet against Burnett, but the Bucs won in typical fashion, 3-2.

        The LVH Super Book opened the Pirates at 100/1 odds to win the World Series prior to the season and now they’re down to 60/1. A “Three Rivers” title hasn’t happened since 1979 and likely won’t this year, but there is something about this bunch of scrappers that is intriguing. They flirted with first-place success last season for the first time since 1992, so this isn’t their first rodeo.

        Best of all, here we are in June discussing the possibility of Pittsburgh hanging around and postseason odds when they went nearly two decades as one of the worst run teams in professional sports and are currently in the midst of a MLB record streak of 19 straight losing seasons.

        Even though they’re still a small market team with not a lot of money and only one superstar in Andrew McCutchen, the Bucs are going in the right direction and the future looks bright in Western Pennsylvania.

        Interleague Sweeps

        Five teams completed sweeps over the weekend, including the aforementioned Pirates, and fortunately for the pride of the National League, only three came at their expense. The American League holds a 46-38 edge this season in Interleague play and a 2,016-1,836 edge all-time.

        The Rockies are now 0-6 this season against AL teams after the Angels caught fire in the same fashion Seattle did when they visited Colorado two weeks ago.

        Dynamic Duo

        Most of the Angels success at Colorado was due to their top of the order with Mike Trout and Torii Hunter getting hot and often. The pair combined to go 17-for-29 with 16 runs and 11 RBIs in the three games. Trout added four stolen bases and Hunter had three home runs. Their excellence at the top made Albert Pujols and Mark Trumbo’s job as run producers easier and they let loose as well.

        Trout’s going to be a great hitter and is doing it much quicker and better than most expected. But the surge Hunter is feeling might be the biggest impact on the Angels being able to continue their road winning streak to nine games and set their sights on the AL West leading Rangers.

        The Angels have the luxury of being able to put Hunter in a position to get a heavy dose of fastballs because of having a base stealer like Trout who always seems to be on base forcing the pitcher to get the pitch home quicker, and then hitting in front of Pujols. Hunter has always murdered fastballs and it was a stroke of genius by Mike Scioscia to put him in the No. 2 hole.

        What Happened?

        Two-time Cy Young award winner Tim Lincecum is having the roughest patch of his career. Following Sunday’s loss to the Rangers, the Giants have now lost Lincecum’s last eight starts. In most of those starts, the stat line has been the same with Lincecum giving up four to six runs a game. His velocity is down, but more importantly, his confidence is shattered.

        In Aroldis Chapman's first 29 innings, spanning 26 games, he hadn’t given up an earned run all season. In the process of striking out 52 batters in those 29 innings with his 102 mph fastball, he was named the closer and slammed the door on opponents six times. But then he faced the Pirates last Thursday and they tagged him with his first earned run and loss of the season.

        In his next start Sunday night against the Tigers it got even worse as the fireman brought gasoline instead of water! With the Reds leading 6-3 with two runners on and no outs, Dusty Baker sent in Chapman early to put out the fire. Not only did Chapman allow the two ducks on the pond to score, but he gave up two more of his own, including the final and winning run for the Tigers which gave him his second loss of the season. Still, a 4-2 record with a 0.87 ERA isn’t bad, but a meltdown like that can’t be good for the Reds in the near future.

        Closing with Authority

        Braves closer Craig Kimbrel is already considered one of the best in baseball, but he’s on a run right now that is just about as nasty as it gets. He’s only allowed one hit -- not one run, but one hit -- in his last 10 innings. Over that 10-game stretch, Kimbrel has saved all seven opportunities while striking out 14.

        Dodger Saturdays

        The Dodgers were mired in a five-game losing streak through June 1, but the next day was a Saturday and broke the streak. Since then they have won seven of their last nine games through Sunday. With their win at Seattle on Saturday, it took the Dodgers to an impressive 10-0 wherever they play on any Saturday this season. The only other perfect record on a day of the week is the Braves on Monday, who have gone winless at 0-8.
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #5
          Hot and Not

          June 11, 2012

          Another weekend of Interleague action is in the books, and with it, the 2012 MLB season is getting closer and closer to the All Star break. Every division race is very closely contested with only the NL West deficit being more than three-games. The following is a list of the hottest and coldest teams entering the tenth week of the season.
          Money-Makers

          Los Angeles Dodgers (6-1, $642): The best team in all of baseball has no doubt been the Los Angeles Dodgers. Manager Don Mattingly’s squad has gotten it done at the plate and on the bump so much so that it is the best overall baseball investment to date ($1545). If not for having six Mariners pitchers combine for a no-hitter on Friday (5th time in MLB history), LA would have won all seven of its games played last week; which included an impressive four-game road sweep of the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.

          On The Docket: The Dodgers return home to take on the Angels and White Sox in Interleague play over the next seven days. LA’s 2-1 ($100) versus the AL this season, but stands a bankroll depleting 12-21 (-$1040) the L/3 seasons.

          Arizona Diamondbacks (5-1, $377): Last year’s NL West victors have made a ton of noise lately, as manager Kirk Gibson’s squad has secured eight wins in its L/10 trips to the playing field. In doing so, the Snakes find themselves just $149 away from being in the green for their betting backers on the year. By pulling off the Interleague sweep of the Oakland A’s, Arizona slithered its way back to being a .500 ball club. The bats finally waking up paired with some stellar starting pitching has the D-Backs looking on the up and up!

          On The Docket: We’ll get a much clearer picture as to the true caliber of this season turnaround this upcoming week with Arizona set to play six against the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels; all on the road (15-14, $257).

          Los Angeles Angels (4-2, $103): Though the return on investment was hardly anything for those backing the Angels to brag about last week, manager Mike Scioscia’s squad made a huge statement to the rest of the league that they’re readily able to mash with anybody after combining to score 28 runs in their three-game Interleague sweep of the Rockies at Coors Field. Mark Trumbo is swinging an incredibly hot bat (2 multi HR games last week), while rookie Mike Trout’s insertion at the top of the line-up has paid immediate dividends; the rookie has raked multi-hit games in seven of nine.

          On The Docket: The Halos will play the first leg of the “Freeway Series” at Chavez Ravine to start the week before returning home to battle the resurgent Diamondbacks. Anaheim is 4-2 ($120) against the NL this season and 28-14 ($1240) the L/3 seasons.

          Honorable Mentions: Pittsburgh Pirates (5-1, $490), Atlanta Braves (5-1, $489), Washington Nationals (5-1, $454), New York Yankees (5-1, $357), Tampa Bay Rays (4-2, $248), Milwaukee Brewers (4-2, $103)

          Money-Burners

          Miami Marlins (0-6, -$740): So after sweeping the NL East leading Washington Nationals at home and following it up by taking two of three from the Phillies at CBP, Manager Ozzie Guillen’s Fish go out and drop all six of their home matchups against the Braves and Rays last week. This club is as schizophrenic as it gets! The offense is largely to blame as it scored an average of just 1.7 runs per game throughout their second six-game losing streak of the season.

          On The Docket: Miami will look to right the ship and improve upon its embarrassing 16-16 home record (-$656) against Boston for three before invading Tropicana Field to close out its Interleague encounters with the Rays; the Marlins check in 15-13 ($234) on the road.

          Colorado Rockies (1-5, -$385): The Rockies looked to have turned the corner heading into last week’s action after securing wins in seven of eight, but after shutting the D-Backs out 4-0 in the series opener last Monday, manager Jim Tracy’s outfit dropped each of its next five. In doing so, Colorado sits nine-games under .500 and a whopping 14-games out of first place in the NL West. The whitewashing the Angels just handed them could be the beginning of the end for this teams coaching staff.

          On The Docket: The Rockies will attempt to get off the schneid against an Oakland team that also just got swept in Interleague play before making a trip to Motown to battle what could be a reinvigorated Tigers outfit; Colorado’s 0-6 (-$759) vs. the AL to date!

          Philadelphia Phillies (1-5, -$359): What on god’s green earth has happened to the Phillies home field advantage at Citizen’s Bank? In dropping all four to the Dodgers earlier in the week, manager Charlie Manuel’s squad fell to 12-19 in front of their hometown faithful. In doing so, it has cost their betting backers a whopping $1,605 on the year. This club won better than 64 percent of its home games the last two seasons! If Jimmy Rollins and his mates can’t figure things out in their own backyard, this club has no shot of heading back to the playoffs for the sixth straight season.

          On The Docket: Thankfully the Phillies are on the road this week where they’ll look to get the best of the Minnesota Twins and Toronto Blue Jays; they’ve won 17 of 31 as visitors ($237) to date.

          Dishonorable Mentions: Boston Red Sox (1-5, -$611), Kansas City Royals (1-5, -$507), New York Mets (1-6, -$503), Chicago Cubs (2-5, -$227), San Diego Padres (2-4, -$159)
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • #6
            Beckett faces former team Monday in Miami


            BOSTON RED SOX (29-31)

            at MIAMI MARLINS (31-29)


            First pitch: Monday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
            Line: Boston -110, Miami +100, Total: 7½

            The NBA Eastern Conference Finals may have ended this weekend, but Miami and Boston will now square off on the baseball diamond for a three-game series as MLB interleague play continues.

            The Marlins enter this game amid a serious funk, the losers of six games in a row with consecutive sweeps to the Braves and Rays. The Red Sox are not much better, having lost six of their past seven contests, and having just got swept in a three-game home set by the Nationals. Josh Beckett takes the hill for Boston, facing his former team for the first time in his career. Despite struggles to start the year and a current 4.04 ERA, Beckett has a 1.16 WHIP for the season and has not given up a home run in five consecutive starts. In those starts he has gone at least seven innings every time, tallying a 2.21 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and a 25-to-5 K-to-BB ratio. Johnson is 3-4 on the season with a 4.56 ERA. He has looked better as of late however, with six consecutive starts of allowing three runs or less. But the Red Sox are a better team on the road with a 15-12 away mark this season, and Miami’s offense has scored a meager 10 runs during its six-game slide. The pick here is BOSTON to win Monday’s series opener.

            This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Red Sox:

            Play Against - Home teams (MIAMI) - terrible offensive team - scoring <=3.8 runs/game on the season (NL) against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. (47-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.1%, +26.2 units. Rating = 3*).

            The Red Sox sport a solid offense behind Beckett, averaging 5.0 runs per game against righty starters with a solid .277 batting average. They have put up 5.1 runs per game on the road with a stellar .446 slugging percentage outside of Fenway Park (2nd in majors). In the past 10 away games, Boston is 7-3 with 19 homers, hitting at least one longball in each contest. Additionally the Sox have a strong bullpen to support Beckett, as their relievers have compiled a 3.55 ERA on the season, including an outstanding 2.88 ERA on the road. In these away games, the bullpen has a 1.17 WHIP, 11 saves and just two blown opportunities. With the strong support and given the way Beckett has looked recently, he is worth the bet.

            Miami averages just 3.6 runs per game against right-handed starters with a meager .247 batting average and .315 on-base percentage. And the Marlins bullpen has struggled this season, especially at home, where it has a 4.87 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Johnson has faced Boston once in his career, back in 2006, when he allowed three runs (all solo homers) on four hits and four walks in seven innings. Johnson has looked far better in his past six starts, in which he has a 2.95 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, and will not bow out of this game easily. But he may just not get the run support, especially facing Beckett in this contest. Miami is batting a pathetic .197 with a .316 slugging percentage during its six-game losing skid. Play against.
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • #7
              MLB

              Monday, June 11

              Game Score Status Pick Amount

              Washington - 7:07 PM ET Washington +149 500
              Toronto - Over 8 500

              Boston - 7:10 PM ET Miami -107 500
              Miami - Under 7.5 500

              NY Yankees - 7:10 PM ET NY Yankees -109 500
              Atlanta - Under 8.5 500

              LA Angels - 10:10 PM ET LA Dodgers -107 500
              LA Dodgers - Under 7.5 500
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment

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