The Bum's Thursday's MLB Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Rays And Yankees Close Out Series In Bronx

It can often be a double-edged sword when we have a quick rematch of starting hurlers. That is especially true when it's a battle we've seen often in recent seasons, and that is the backdrop when the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees once again pique our interest with an outstanding matchup of southpaws on Thursday to close the crucial AL East series.

CC Sabathia and the Pinstripe Posse opened as $1.45 favorites in the 7:05 p.m. (ET) first pitch at the House That George Built. Tampa Bay's David Price slings in opposition with an 7½-run total that leans 'over.'

Sabathia and Price met exactly four weeks ago on the same diamond, and it was the Yanks who scored a 5-3 win to reward NY backers who were paying -135. Sabathia's stake to being the staff ace of the mighty Yankees since he joined the team for the '09 season is well deserved, and New York is a healthy 8-3 with their rotund lefty on the hill this campaign.

Still, the Rays in general, and Price specifically, have given Sabathia trouble with the Yanks 6-9 in his 15 career starts while wearing pinstripes vs. Tampa Bay. Price checks in Thursday with the Rays 8-5 in his 13 lifetime assignments against New York, and they were a perfect 5-0 when he matched up with Sabathia before May's tussle.

There are some conflicting totals trends for these pitchers; the 'under' is 6-5 in Price's starts, including each of his last four outings, while the 'over' has cashed in Sabathia's last two trips to the mound and seven of 11 for the season.

New York took Game 1 of the set on Tuesday by a 7-0 count. The Yankees were -130 for that contest and -145 for Game 2 on Wednesday, with those results still pending.

Tribe & Tigers Close Motown Series With Matinee
The close-knit races in both East Divisions have served to push the other geographical sets to back burners. Simmering among the groups is the AL Central that was supposed to belong solely to the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers are instead a hunter, instead of the hunted.

Detroit and the Cleveland Indians are indeed on the prowl of the elusive Chicago White Sox as the Tigers and Tribe complete a key series in Motown with a Thursday afternoon affair (1:05 p.m. ET). Cleveland trots Derek Lowe to the Comerica Park bump in a game that opened as a pick against Detroit rookie Casey Crosby. The total is either nine favoring the 'over' or 9½ with an 'under' lean depending where you look.

Cleveland halted a 7-game losing skid in Detroit with a 4-2 victory in Tuesday's opener, which closed with the Indians +145 underdogs. Game 2 on Wednesday found Detroit once again significant 160 chalk with a 9-run total.

Atlanta was simply looking to dump some salary when dispatching Lowe to the Indians in an offseason deal. Lowe lost 17 games for the Braves with a 5.05 ERA last year, and was seen as just a veteran innings eater for a suspect Cleveland staff. Instead, he has elevated his game and his status to ace of the Tribe's rotation.

Cleveland is 7-4 behind Lowe with his backers up about $3.20 so far. He will be facing the Tigers for the first time in about four years, his last start vs. Detroit coming in a 2008 interleague contest while Lowe wore a Dodgers uniform.

Crosby was called up on June 1 to take the rotation slot left vacant by Doug Fister's second stint on the DL for 2012. His MLB debut came against the Yankees and certainly didn't go as either Crosby or the Tigers hoped. He was chased one out into the fourth and ultimately charged with six runs, half of them coming plateward on a Curtis Granderson bleacher bomb.

Detroit owned this matchup from 2009-11, winning 35 of the 54 clashes. The Motown Cats were also on a 13-2 run at Comerica entering Wednesday. Cleveland served notice a couple of weeks ago at home that the Tigers' overall dominance might be coming to an end with a sweep to stop a 10-game Detroit string of dubyas. It should be pointed out, however, that the Indians opened 2011 with a broom job at home before losing 12 of the final 15 meetings on the slate.

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Thursday

June 7, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Cardinals are 11-0 since April 21, 2011 as a favorite and it is the last game of a three game series when they split the first two after playing in a night game for a net profit of $1100.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Indians are 12-0 OU since April 10, 2011 on the road vs a team that has lost at least their last three games for a net profit of $1200 when playing the over.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:


The Yankees are 10-0 since July 23, 2009 when CC Sabathia starts at home after the team won their last three games for a net profit of $1000.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:


The Athletics are 19-0 (+3.0 rpg) since August 26th 2004 in the last game of a 3+ game series following a shutout win.

TODAY’S TRENDS:


The Orioles are 10-0 since September 14, 2011 when playing a night game when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher after playing in a night game for a net profit of $1690.

The Mets are 6-0 since May 20, 2011 when R.A. Dickey starts on the road vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $840.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Tip Sheet

June 6, 2012


Stats do not include results from Wednesday’s games.

Gamblers have 12 MLB games on the menu for Thursday, including a half-dozen afternoon affairs. Let’s take a look at a pair of night games between rivals in the National League East and AL East.

**Braves at Marlins**

--BetOnline.com opened Miami (31-24, +184) as a minus-135 favorite for the rubber match of this three-game set in South Florida. The total was 8 ½ ‘over’ (minus-115) on the send-out. Bettors can bring home a plus-150 return by backing the Marlins on the run line (minus 1 ½ runs, risk $100 to win $150).

--Atlanta (30-25, +245) won Tuesday’s series opener by an 11-0 count behind Tim Hudson’s five-hit shutout. The veteran righty, who improved to 4-2 on the season and continued his dominance of the Marlins, had plenty of help from the bats. Dan Uggla blasted a pair of homers against his former team en route to a 4-for-5 effort that included three runs scored and five RBIs. Jason Heyward went 3-for-4 and drew a walk.

--Mark Buehrle (5-5, 3.53 ERA) will take the mound for Ozzie Guillen’s squad. Buehrle owns a 3-1 record and 3.38 ERA in five home starts. The ‘over’ is 7-4 in the veteran left-handers 11 assignments, cashing in each of his last five outings.

--Fredi Gonzalez will give the starting nod to Mike Minor, who is 2-4 with a bloated 6.98 ERA. The lefty out of Vanderbilt is 1-2 with a 7.27 ERA in six road starts, but we should note that the Braves have prevailed in four of those six games. The ‘over’ is 4-2 in Minor’s six road starts.

--These clubs met in a brief two-game set at Turner Field on May 16 and 17. Miami won the series lid-lifter 8-4 before Atlanta responded with a 7-0 triumph behind Brandon Beachy.

--Atlanta is 10-10 versus southpaws, 18-14 on the road and 23-15 at night.

--Miami is 16-11 at home, 11-6 against lefties and 20-15 under the lights.

--The ‘over’ is 29-23-3 overall for the Braves, 7-2 in their last nine games.

--The ‘over’ is 29-24-2 overall for the Marlins, 11-3-1 in their last 15 contests.

--The first pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. Eastern.

**Rays at Yankees**

--Most spots have installed New York (30-24, -223) as a minus-150 ‘chalk’ with a total of 7 ½ ‘over’ (minus-115). The Yankees are plus-145 on the run line.

--Joe Girardi’s club captured a 7-0 win in Tuesday’s series opener as a minus-127 home favorite. Russell Martin cranked a grand slam for the Yankees and Andy Pettitte dominated again in the Bronx. Pettitte struck out 10, five in a row at one point, and gave up only two hits over 7 1/3 innings of work.

--Tampa Bay (31-24, +427) swept a three-game series from New York at The Trop in April, but it has lost three of its four games on the road against the Yankees going into Wednesday night’s matchup.

--Girardi will send LHP C.C. Sabathia (7-2, 3.68) to the bump. Sabathia is 3-1 with a 2.37 ERA in four home starts. The ‘over’ is 7-4 overall in Sabathia’s 11 outings.

--Joe Maddon will counter with another stellar southpaw of his own, David Price, who is 7-3 with a 2.44 ERA. Price is 3-2 with a 4.00 ERA in six road assignments. The ‘under’ is 6-5 overall in Price’s starts, cashing in his last four times out.

--The Yankees are 15-11 at home, 10-6 against southpaws and 21-17 at night.

--The Rays are 12-13 on the road, 8-12 versus lefties and 19-14 at night.

--The ‘under’ is 30-21 overall for the Rays, 7-2 in their last nine games.

--The ‘under’ is 31-22 overall for the Yankees, cashing in their last three games.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--The ‘under’ is an MLB-best 34-17-3 overall for the Pirates, who pulled to within two games of the NL-Central-leading Reds with Tuesday’s win behind A.J. Burnett. Pittsburgh has the fourth-best money tally in the majors (+760).

--Texas slugger Josh Hamilton is producing huge numbers with an MLB-best 21 homers and 58 RBIs. He and the Rangers will take aim at Oakland on Thursday afternoon at 3:35 p.m. Eastern.

--The best ‘over’ team in baseball is the Mets, who have seen it go 34-20 overall, 19-6 in their road games.

--Best fade (go-against) teams in the majors going into Wednesday’s action?
1-Tigers (-1587)
2-Padres (-1527)
3-Cubs (-1409)
4-Brewers (-1316)
5-Phillies (-945)

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, June 7

Hot pitchers
-- Dickey is 3-0, 0.39 in his last three starts.
-- Hamels is 5-1, 2.82 in his last six starts. Harang is 3-1, 2.97 in his last five starts.
-- Cain is 5-0, 3.21 in his last five starts.
-- Leake is 2-0, 3.57 in his last three starts.
-- Happ is 2-2, 2.49 in his last four starts.

-- Lowe is 5-2, 2.90 in his last eight starts.
-- Oakland won last five McCarthy starts (4-0, 2.54).
-- Price is 2-1, 1.91 in his last four starts. Sabathia is 2-1, 3.00 in his last three starts.
-- Matusz is 4-1, 3.41 in his last five starts. Buchholz is 1-0, 2.40 in his last couple outings.
-- Peavy is 6-1, 2.93 in his last ten starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Wang allowed four runs in four IP in his first '12 start.
-- Garza is 0-3, 9.64 in his last three starts. Wolf is 0-2, 7.54 in his last four outings.
-- Volquez is 0-3, 4.76 in his last four starts.
-- Correia is 1-5, 5.40 in his last seven starts.
-- Buehrle has a 4.85 RA in his last four starts, but Miami won five of his last six starts anyway. Minor is 0-3, 9.95 in his last six starts.
-- Lynn is 2-2, 4.55 in his last five starts.

-- Crosby allowed six runs in 3.1 IP in his first MLB start.
-- Darvish is 1-2, 6.46 in his last three starts.
-- Alvarez is 0-3, 7.43 in his last four starts.

Hot Teams
-- Washington won three of its last four games. Mets are 9-6 in their last fifteen games, but lost the last two.
-- Dodgers won their last three games, allowing nine runs.
-- Braves won their last three games, allowing three runs.
-- Reds won eight of their last ten home games. Pittsburgh won eight of its last eleven games overall.
-- Giants won eight of their last ten games.

-- Bronx Bombers won ten of their last thirteen games.
-- Orioles won three of their last four games.
-- White Sox won ten of their last thirteen games.

Cold Teams
-- Marlins lost last two games, scoring one run.
-- Cardinals lost 10 of their last 13 road games. Houston lost nine of its last eleven games overall.
-- Cubs lost 11 of their last 13 road games. Brewers lost four of their last five games overall.
-- Philly lost nine of its last eleven home games.
-- Padres lost nine of their last eleven games.

-- Tampa Bay lost three of its last four games.
-- Indians lost eight of their last eleven games. Detroit lost six of nine.
-- Boston lost its last three games, scoring eight runs.
-- Toronto lost six of its last seven road games.
-- Oakland lost 11 of its last 14 games. Texas lost six of last eight.

Totals
-- Over is 17-4 in Mets' last twenty-one road games.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in the Phillies' last nine games.
-- Reds' last four home games went over the total.
-- Under is 7-1-1 in Atlanta's last nine road games.
-- Four of last six Houston road games stayed under.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in Cubs' last ten road games.
-- Four of last six games at Petco Park stayed under.

-- Under is 13-3-1 in last seventeen Bronx home games.
-- Over is 9-3-1 in Cleveland's last thirteen road games.
-- Six of last nine Baltimore games stayed under total. Last five games at Fenway Park went over.
-- This is ***************.com. Its payday, well it is for me!!!!
-- 11 of last 13 White Sox home games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-3-1 in Rangers' last eleven games.

Umpires
-- SF-SD-- Six of last seven Miller games stayed under total.
-- LA-Phil-- Five of last seven Kulpa games stayed under.
-- NY-Wsh-- Visiting team won seven of last eight Knight games.
-- Atl-Mia-- Eight of last eleven Culbreth games went over total.
-- Pitt-Cin-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight BWelke games.
-- StL-Hst-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Conroy games.
-- Chi-Mil-- Seven of last eight Schrieber games went over total.

-- TB-NY-- Underdogs won seven of last ten Nauert games.
-- Clev-Det-- Favorites won six of last seven Davis games.
-- Balt-Bos-- Home team won last six Davidson games; over is 3-1-1 in his last five games behind plate.
-- Tor-Chi-- Five of last seven Reynolds games went over total.
-- Tex-A's-- Five of last six Meals games went over the total.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, June 7

Game Score Status Pick Amount

NY Mets - 1:05 PM ET NY Mets -126 500
Washington - Under 7.5 500

LA Dodgers - 1:05 PM ET LA Dodgers +172 500
Philadelphia - Under 7.5 500

Cleveland - 1:05 PM ET Cleveland +110 500
Detroit - Under 9.5 500

Chi. Cubs - 2:10 PM ET Chi. Cubs +110 500
Milwaukee - Under 7.5 500

Texas - 3:35 PM ET Oakland +141 500
Oakland - Over 7.5 500

San Francisco - 3:35 PM ET San Francisco -137 500
San Diego - Over 6.5 500


Evening Games Posted Later....GOOD LUCK !