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The Bum's Wednesday's MLB Best Bets !

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  • The Bum's Wednesday's MLB Best Bets !

    Rays And Yankees Close Out Series In Bronx

    The Yankees are 6-9 when CC Sabathia takes the ball against the Rays.

    It can often be a double-edged sword when we have a quick rematch of starting hurlers. That is especially true when it's a battle we've seen often in recent seasons, and that is the backdrop when the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees once again pique our interest with an outstanding matchup of southpaws on Thursday to close the crucial AL East series.

    CC Sabathia and the Pinstripe Posse opened as $1.45 favorites in the 7:05 p.m. (ET) first pitch at the House That George Built. Tampa Bay's David Price slings in opposition with an 7½-run total that leans 'over.'

    Sabathia and Price met exactly four weeks ago on the same diamond, and it was the Yanks who scored a 5-3 win to reward NY backers who were paying -135. Sabathia's stake to being the staff ace of the mighty Yankees since he joined the team for the '09 season is well deserved, and New York is a healthy 8-3 with their rotund lefty on the hill this campaign.

    Still, the Rays in general, and Price specifically, have given Sabathia trouble with the Yanks 6-9 in his 15 career starts while wearing pinstripes vs. Tampa Bay. Price checks in Thursday with the Rays 8-5 in his 13 lifetime assignments against New York, and they were a perfect 5-0 when he matched up with Sabathia before May's tussle.

    There are some conflicting totals trends for these pitchers; the 'under' is 6-5 in Price's starts, including each of his last four outings, while the 'over' has cashed in Sabathia's last two trips to the mound and seven of 11 for the season.

    New York took Game 1 of the set on Tuesday by a 7-0 count. The Yankees were -130 for that contest and -145 for Game 2 on Wednesday, with those results still pending.

    Tribe & Tigers Close Motown Series With Matinee
    The close-knit races in both East Divisions have served to push the other geographical sets to back burners. Simmering among the groups is the AL Central that was supposed to belong solely to the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers are instead a hunter, instead of the hunted.

    Detroit and the Cleveland Indians are indeed on the prowl of the elusive Chicago White Sox as the Tigers and Tribe complete a key series in Motown with a Thursday afternoon affair (1:05 p.m. ET). Cleveland trots Derek Lowe to the Comerica Park bump in a game that opened as a pick against Detroit rookie Casey Crosby. The total is either nine favoring the 'over' or 9½ with an 'under' lean depending where you look.

    Cleveland halted a 7-game losing skid in Detroit with a 4-2 victory in Tuesday's opener, which closed with the Indians +145 underdogs. Game 2 on Wednesday found Detroit once again significant 160 chalk with a 9-run total.

    Atlanta was simply looking to dump some salary when dispatching Lowe to the Indians in an offseason deal. Lowe lost 17 games for the Braves with a 5.05 ERA last year, and was seen as just a veteran innings eater for a suspect Cleveland staff. Instead, he has elevated his game and his status to ace of the Tribe's rotation.

    Cleveland is 7-4 behind Lowe with his backers up about $3.20 so far. He will be facing the Tigers for the first time in about four years, his last start vs. Detroit coming in a 2008 interleague contest while Lowe wore a Dodgers uniform.

    Crosby was called up on June 1 to take the rotation slot left vacant by Doug Fister's second stint on the DL for 2012. His MLB debut came against the Yankees and certainly didn't go as either Crosby or the Tigers hoped. He was chased one out into the fourth and ultimately charged with six runs, half of them coming plateward on a Curtis Granderson bleacher bomb.

    Detroit owned this matchup from 2009-11, winning 35 of the 54 clashes. The Motown Cats were also on a 13-2 run at Comerica entering Wednesday. Cleveland served notice a couple of weeks ago at home that the Tigers' overall dominance might be coming to an end with a sweep to stop a 10-game Detroit string of dubyas. It should be pointed out, however, that the Indians opened 2011 with a broom job at home before losing 12 of the final 15 meetings on the slate.
    __________________
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  • #2
    Diamond Trends - Wednesday

    June 6, 2012


    SU TREND OF THE DAY:

    The Indians are 0-11 since May 30, 2011 as a road dog when they blew a lead in their starter’s last start and lost for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.


    OU TREND OF THE DAY:

    The Rockies are 0-13 OU (-3.7 rpg) since 2005 after losing by double-digits last game while scoring two or fewer runs.


    STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

    The Brewers are 14-0 since May 15, 2011 when Zack Greinke starts as a home 140+ favorite for a net profit of $1400.


    MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

    The Indians are 0-15 (-2.7 rpg) since September 2008 as an away dog vs. AL team after a night game win where they walked no more than one batter.


    TODAY’S TRENDS:

    The Reds are 9-0 since July 31, 2011 when Johnny Cueto starts as a 140+ favorite vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $900.

    The Giants are 7-0 since July 06, 2011 when Madison Bumgarner starts as a favorite after more strike outs than hits allowed for a net profit of $700.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #3
      Yankees try to stay hot vs. slumping Rays

      TAMPA BAY RAYS (31-24)

      at NEW YORK YANKEES (30-24)


      First pitch: Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
      Line: New York -140, Tampa Bay +130, Total: 9½

      After shutting the Rays out 7-0 in the series opener Tuesday, the Yankees will look to move past Tampa in the AL East standings with another win Wednesday.

      Ivan Nova takes the hill for the Yankees, who always seem to win games when he starts, even when he doesn’t pitch his best. The Yankees have won eight of Nova’s 10 starts this year, despite his 5.60 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Nova has a 3-0 career record versus Tampa Bay with a 3.56 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, with the Yankees winning all five times he has started against the Rays in his career. Getting a whopping 8.62 runs per game of support (sixth-most in majors), Nova usually just has to pitch mediocre in order to get the victory. On Wednesday he faces Alex Cobb, who has a 3.71 ERA in three starts this season. Cobb has started once against the Yankees in his career, allowing one earned runs on just three hits in six innings. His last outing from this year was his worst of the 2012 campaign, allowing nine hits and four earned in five innings to the White Sox. And Cobb may have trouble with run support in this game as the Rays have notched just 20 runs (2.9 per game) in their past seven games, a span in which they are 2-5. On the other hand, the Yankees bats are hot, scoring 5.6 runs per game and slugging .478 in their past 12 contests (9-3 record). As favorites, expect NEW YORK to win again.

      This rare four-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Yankees:

      Play On - All favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (N.Y. YANKEES) - starting a well-rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest, with a well-rested bullpen - threw 4 innings or less over last 3 games. (53-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.8%, +37 units. Rating = 4*).

      The Yankees have done well against the Rays at home, winning three of four this year and going 13-9 against them over the past three seasons at Yankee Stadium. To Nova’s credit, even though he has given up a fair number of runs this season, he still makes it deep into games, averaging more than six innings per start. Once he gets that far he is supported by the spectacular Yankees bullpen that has a 2.78 ERA on the season with 14 saves and only two blown opportunities. The New York lineup appears to be fully intact, as star 2B Robinson Cano (forearm) is expected to play. The Yankees should be in good position to secure a series victory in this game, play on them.

      The Rays are just 12-13 on the road this season and will need their bats to heat up to compete in this game. Tampa Bay has just a .235 batting average on the season (fifth-worst in MLB), which must improve to accommodate its pitching. And their bullpen has been strong overall with a 3.45 ERA, but that mark jumps to a painful 5.62 on the road. And despite the Rays stellar 23-12 record (.657) against right-handed starters, they are hitting a paltry .236 with a .308 OBP in these games. Tampa Bay is cold and difficult to put confidence in on the road right now. Play against.
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #4
        MLB
        Armadillo's Write-Up

        Wednesday, June 6

        Hot pitchers
        -- Richard is 1-1, 3.00 in his last four starts.
        -- Kendrick is 2-1, 1.97 in his last five starts.
        -- Nationals lost last five Jackson starts, despite his 2.94 RA.
        -- JJohnson is 3-0, 3.09 in his last five starts.
        -- Lincoln allowed two runs in six IP in his only start May 14.
        -- Greinke is 3-0, 1.30 in his five home starts.
        -- Miley is 3-1, 3.33 in his last four starts. Outman threw 3.1 shutout innings in his first '12 start, a win over the Dodgers.

        -- Scherzer is 3-0, 3.93 in his last three starts.
        -- Beckett is 2-1, 2.20 in his last four starts.
        -- Morrow is 6-2, 2.77 in his last eight starts. Quintana is 1-0, 2.79 in his two starts for Chicago.
        -- Paulino is 3-1, 1.70 in six starts for the Royals.
        -- JWilliams is 3-1, 2.96 in his last four starts.

        Cold pitchers
        -- Bumgarner is 0-2, 5.95 in his last three road starts.
        -- Hefner allowed nine runs in 9.2 IP in his two '12 starts.
        -- Capuano is 1-2, 6.11 in his last three starts.
        -- Delgado is 1-2, 6.75 in his last three starts.
        -- Cueto is 1-3, 5.96 in his last four starts.
        -- Wainwright is 2-3, 5.17 in his last five starts. Norris allowed 12 runs in 6.1 IP in his last two starts.
        -- Cubs lost Maholm's last four starts (0-2, 5.96).

        -- Nova has a 6.39 RA in his last seven starts. Cobb is 2-1, 4.76 in his three starts for the Rays.
        -- Gomez is 0-2, 9.90 in his last couple starts.
        -- WChen is 0-2, 7.31 in his last three starts.
        -- Blackburn is 1-3, 9.82 in his last five starts.
        -- Lewis is 1-4, 6.25 in his last six starts. Colon is 1-4, 7.33 in his last five starts.
        -- Noesi is 0-3, 4.81 in his last five starts.

        Hot Teams
        -- Mets are 9-5 in their last fourteen games.
        -- Marlins won seven of their last ten games.
        -- Reds won seven of their last nine home games. Pittsburgh won eight of its last ten games overall.
        -- Giants won seven of their last nine games.
        -- Colorado won seven of its last nine games.

        -- Bronx Bombers won nine of their last twelve games. Tampa Bay won five of its last seven road games.
        -- Red Sox won eight of their last twelve home games.
        -- Minnesota won six of its last eight games. Royals won seven of their last ten games.
        -- White Sox won ten of their last twelve games.
        -- Mariners won seven of their last eleven road games. Angels won 11 of their last 14 games.

        Cold Teams
        -- Washington lost four of its last six games.
        -- Braves lost five of their last seven road games.
        -- Cardinals lost 10 of their last 12 road games. Houston lost eight of its last ten games overall.
        -- Cubs lost 11 of their last 12 road games. Brewers lost three of four.
        -- Philly lost eight of its last ten home games. Dodgers lost six of their last nine games overall.
        -- Arizona lost 15 of its last 22 home games.
        -- Padres lost eight of their last ten games.

        -- Indians lost seven of their last ten games. Detroit lost six of eight.
        -- Orioles lost seven of their last nine games.
        -- Toronto lost five of its last six road games.
        -- Oakland lost 11 of its last 13 games. Texas lost five of last seven.

        Totals
        -- Over is 17-4 in Mets' last twenty-one road games.
        -- Over is 6-2-1 in the Phillies' last nine games.
        -- Reds' last four home games went over the total.
        -- Under is 7-1-1 in Atlanta's last nine road games.
        -- Four of last six Houston road games stayed under.
        -- Under is 7-2-1 in Cubs' last ten road games.
        -- Seven of last nine Arizona games stayed under total.
        -- Four of last six games at Petco Park stayed under.

        -- Under is 13-3-1 in last seventeen Bronx home games.
        -- Over is 9-3-1 in Cleveland's last thirteen road games.
        -- Six of last nine Baltimore games stayed under total. Last five games at Fenway Park went over.
        -- This is ***************.com. Its payday, well it is for me!!!!
        -- Over is 6-3-1 in Minnesota's last ten road games. Six of last eight Kansas City games went over the total.
        -- 11 of last 13 White Sox home games went over the total.
        -- Five of last seven Seattle road games went over the total.
        -- Over is 7-3-1 in Rangers' last eleven games.

        Umpires
        -- SF-SD-- Underdogs won four of last five Bucknor games.
        -- LA-Phil-- Six of last nine Cousins games stayed under total.
        -- NY-Wsh-- Bell's last four games all went over the total.
        -- Atl-Mia-- Last five Barksdale games stayed under the total.
        -- Pitt-Cin-- Three of last four Muchinski games stayed under.
        -- StL-Hst-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Hernandez games.
        -- Chi-Mil-- Last five Everitt games stayed under the total.
        -- Col-Az-- Underdogs won eight of last eleven McClelland games.

        -- TB-NY-- Four of last five Porter games went over the total.
        -- Clev-Det-- Underdog won last seven Gibson games, with last three going over the total.
        -- Balt-Bos-- Home side won eight of last ten Layne games.
        -- Tor-Chi-- Road team won four of six Estabrook games, with last three won by the favorite.
        -- Min-KC-- Home side won seven of last eight Marquez games; under is 3-0-2 in his last five games.
        -- Tex-A's-- Underdogs won five of last seven Barry games.
        -- Sea-LAA-- Underdogs won five of last seven Tichenor games.
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #5
          MLB
          Short Sheet

          Wednesday, June 6

          National League

          San Francisco at San Diego, 6:35 ET
          Bumgarner: San Francisco 13-3 SU after 3 straight games with no home runs
          Richard: San Diego 4-16 SU against left-handed starters

          LA Dodgers at Philadelphia, 7:05 ET
          Capuano: LA Dodgers 18-6 SU after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs
          Kendrick: Philadelphia is 9-17 SU after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs

          NY Mets at Washington, 7:05 ET
          Hefner: NY Mets 12-3 SU in road games revenging a one run loss to opponent
          Jackson: 7-18 TSR in the first half of the season

          Atlanta at Miami, 7:10 ET
          Delgado: Atlanta 18-4 SU after batting .225 or worse over a 15 game span
          Johnson: Miami 7-25 SU in June games

          Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, 7:10 ET
          Lincoln: Pittsburgh 19-12 SU in June games
          Cueto: Cincinnati 48-62 SU after one or more consecutive overs

          St. Louis at Houston, 8:05 ET
          Wainwright: ST Louis 7-14 SU after 2 or more consecutive overs
          Norris: 8-1 TSR when the total is 7 to 8.5

          Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee, 8:10 ET
          Maholm: Chicago 0-9 SU in road games after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs
          Greinke: 21-0 TSR as a home favorite of -110 or higher

          Colorado at Arizona, 9:40 ET
          Outman: Colorado 7-17 SU after allowing 9 runs or more
          Miley: Arizona 46-29 SU when the total is 9 to 9.5


          American League

          Tampa Bay at NY Yankees, 7:05 ET ESPN2
          Cobb: Tampa Bay 20-8 SU in road games when playing on Wednesday
          Nova: NY Yankees 45-46 SU on a good fielding streak

          Cleveland at Detroit, 7:05 ET
          Gomez: Cleveland 24-13 SU against right-handed starters
          Scherzer: Detroit 1-7 SU when playing on Wednesday

          Baltimore at Boston, 7:10 ET
          Chen: Baltimore 17-11 SU in road games
          Beckett: Boston 1-7 SU with a tired bullpen

          Toronto at Chicago White Sox, 8:10 ET
          Morrow: 13-0 TSR on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5
          Quintana: CHI White Sox 7-14 SU at home when the total is 8 to 8.5

          Minnesota at Kansas City, 8:10 ET
          Blackburn: Minnesota 20-11 SU in June
          Paulino: Kansas City 2-8 SU as a favorite of -110 or higher

          Texas at Oakland, 10:05 ET
          Lewis: Texas 34-15 SU after 3 consecutive games vs a division rival
          Colon: 1-8 TSR in home games in night games

          Seattle at LA Angels, 10:05 ET
          Noesi: Seattle 26-20 SU in road games after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs
          Williams: LA Angels 4-10 SU after a win by 4 runs or more
          __________________
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • #6
            MLB

            Wednesday, June 6

            Game Score Status Pick Amount

            San Francisco - 6:35 PM ET San Francisco -124 500
            San Diego - Over 6 500

            Tampa Bay - 7:05 PM ET NY Yankees -139 500
            NY Yankees - Under 9 500

            NY Mets - 7:05 PM ET Washington -149 500
            Washington - Under 7.5 500

            LA Dodgers - 7:05 PM ET Philadelphia -113 500
            Philadelphia - Under 7.5 500

            Cleveland - 7:05 PM ET Cleveland +150 500
            Detroit - Over 9 500

            Baltimore - 7:10 PM ET Boston -165 500
            Boston - Under 9 500

            Atlanta - 7:10 PM ET Miami -141 500
            Miami - Under 8.5 500

            Pittsburgh - 7:10 PM ET Pittsburgh +165 500
            Cincinnati - Over 7.5 500

            St. Louis - 8:05 PM ET Houston +125 500
            Houston - Over 8 500

            Toronto - 8:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox +109 500
            Chi. White Sox - Over 8.5 500

            Minnesota - 8:10 PM ET Kansas City -159 500
            Kansas City - Under 8.5 500

            Chi. Cubs - 8:10 PM ET Chi. Cubs +185 500
            Milwaukee - Under 7.5 500

            Colorado - 9:40 PM ET Arizona -132 500
            Arizona - Over 9.5 500

            Seattle - 10:05 PM ET LA Angels -153 500
            LA Angels - Under 8 500

            Texas - 10:05 PM ET Oakland +140 500
            Oakland - Over 7.5 500
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment

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