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  • The Bum's Tuesday's MLB Best Bets !

    Orioles Visit Red Sox In Key AL East Clash

    Believe it or not, the AL East race could be even tighter than it already is once the dust settles following action on Thursday. All five teams begin the season's 10th week above .500 and separated by just three games, and four of the five are pitted head-to-head in a couple of series which get underway Tuesday.

    Tampa Bay holds a one-game lead atop the ranks and the Rays will be in New York to face the Yankees who are 1.5-games to the rear in third. Second place belongs to Baltimore with the Orioles visiting the Boston Red Sox. Toronto is tied with Boston for fourth place, each three games behind; the Blue Jays are in Chicago against the AL Central-leading White Sox as the MLB schedule heats up leading into the return of interleague play later this week.

    It is the Orioles and Red Sox series opener on Tuesday (7:10 p.m. ET) that draws our interest with a fine mound matchup between Baltimore's Jason Hammel and Boston's Jon Lester. The game opened with the Red Sox priced at -165 and a 9-run total.

    Baltimore's recent slide that Bruce Marshall discussed last week continued over the weekend at Tampa Bay where the Orioles dropped two of three to cede the division lead to the Rays. That leaves Buck Showalter's squad 1-5 to begin this 9-game road trip after being broomed in Toronto before the series in Tampa. The O's have won just three of their last 13, leaving their backers 7.3 units in the red during the stretch.

    Hammel will be getting his second look at the Red Sox from the mound at Fenway Park after beating them on May 5 as a small road pup (+105). He was victimized by the home run in Toronto last Wednesday, yielding four bombs at long-ball happy Rogers Centre; Hammel entered that contest having served up just three homers in his first nine starts.

    Boston has been heading in the opposite direction of the Birds the past couple of weeks with a 10-5 spurt that has put nearly $5.00 into the pockets of Red Sox bettors. Bobby Valentine's troops return home following a quick trip into Toronto where they took two of three, and have been cashing 'over' tickets at a 32-21-1 clip (60.4%) this season, 5-2 their last seven.

    Lester's last three assignments have all skipped above the scoreboard mark, and the Sox have won three of his last four after beginning the year 2-5 when the lefty was on the hill. He didn't decision in Boston's 6-4 loss to the Orioles on May 4, a 13-inning triumph for Baltimore who was getting +145 in the affair.

    Both teams list a key member of their lineups as probable for Tuesday's contest. Adam Jones has been bothered by soreness in each wrist, but should be in the Baltimore batting order. Boston 2B Dustin Pedroia missed the last six games with a bum right thumb, but all signs point to him being back in the Boston mix.

    Dodgers, Phils Continue Clash at Citizens Bank Park
    Shifting to the National League, the Los Angeles Dodgers continue their series at the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday with a 7:05 p.m. (ET) first pitch in the second of a 4-game set. The series opened Monday with the Dodgers -120 behind Clayton Kershaw. Vance Worley was scheduled to return from the DL to start for the Phillies, and the total had dropped from an opening 7-run mark to 6½.

    We originally previewed Monday's contest with Cliff Lee making the start for Philadelphia, but Worley's return from injury will push Lee back to Tuesday night when his counterpart will be LA's Chad Billingsley. The Phils opened as 175 favorites for Game 2 that is carrying a 7-run total.

    Both teams dropped their series over the past weekend, with the Dodgers starting a 10-game road trip by losing two of three in Colorado while the Phils fell twice in three home games against the Miami Marlins. Los Angeles has been in a recent 1-6 plunge to see its NL West lead pared to just three games over the San Francisco Giants heading into Monday's tilt. Philadelphia was last in the NL East, but just 3.5-games behind a trio of clubs deadlocked in first.

    History suggests Lee is facing the right team to finally pick up his first dubya of the 2012 campaign. He has made four career starts vs. the Dodgers, including Game 3 of the 2009 NLCS, and his clubs are a perfect 4-0 in those games with Lee owning a 0.29 ERA as LA has failed to score on Lee in his last 23 innings of work.

    The Dodgers split Billingsley's six May assignments despite his 5.52 ERA for the month. Los Angeles has been a loser in the right-hander's last three road efforts, though they haven't exactly come against the cream of the crop in the Senior Circuit (Milwaukee, Houston and Chicago). He saw the Phillies once in 2011 and failed to get through the fourth of a 9-8 Dodgers defeat in LA.

    Los Angeles is likely to get OF Juan Rivera (hamstring) back for this series but is still playing without the services of OF Matt Kemp (hamstring) and 2B Mark Ellis (knee). Philadelphia has been minus the right side of the infield all season, 1B Ryan Howard (Achilles) and 2B Chase Utley (knee), plus will not have Roy Halladay (shoulder) in the rotation until June 12 at the earliest.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  • #2
    Hot and Not

    June 4, 2012

    The dog days of summer are rapidly approaching as the 2012 MLB season is now in the month of June. A much clearer picture of how each team stacks up can be determined just by looking at the season long stats. The following is a list of the hottest and coldest teams entering the ninth week of the season.


    Money-Makers

    Chicago White Sox (5-1, $436): The Palehose had their nine-game win streak snapped at home by the Seattle Mariners, but manager Robin Ventura’s squad still posted a solid profit over the last week which catapulted them into the #4 slot on the 2012 money earned list with a hefty $817 return on investment. Chicago is now the ringleader atop the AL Central sitting a comfortable 2 ½-games ahead of Cleveland. They’ve been at their best away from U.S. Cellular Field having won 17 of their 26 games played ($1,063).

    On The Docket: Dayan Viciedo and his scorching hot bat will look to tee off on the Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros pitching staffs this week at home where they’ve won seven of their last nine.

    Colorado Rockies (5-1, $353): The Rockies found themselves on the money-burners list for two consecutive weeks in May, but manager Jim Tracy’s outfit has really picked up some steam over the last two weeks. They’re 8-3 since dropping a season-high six straight games, and just took two of three from the nose-diving Dodgers to pull to within 9 1/2-games of the NL West leaders. The Rockies have mashed all season long evidenced by their 5.3 RPG average (#2); that paired with one of the worst pitching staffs has led to Colorado being one of the best ‘over’ investments in the league (32-19-2).

    On The Docket: The Rox will look to continue chiseling off some of their season long $$$ deficit (-$864) with three in the desert against the Diamondbacks before returning home to battle the resurgent Los Angeles Angels; Colorado’s lost 11 of its L/15 as visitors.

    Kansas City Royals (4-2, $201): The Royals got out to a nightmarish start to their 2012 campaign leaving those bullish on them at the start of the season wondering what they ever saw in manager Ned Yost’s squad. However, KC has now rattled off series wins in each of their last three sets, getting the best of the Orioles, Indians, and A’s behind some timely hitting and excellent pitching. This club sat 10-games under .500 on May 1st, but is now just six-games under and seven games out in the division race; it just might possess some staying power yet!

    On The Docket: The Royals got three with the Twins at home (7-18, -$1,149) before hitting the road for Interleague play in Pittsburgh; KC’s been nothing but money away from Kauffman Stadium (16-11, $1,233).

    Money-Burners

    St. Louis Cardinals (1-5, -$394): The defending champs have plummeted both in the NL Central standings and money earned list over the last couple weeks. Manager Mike Matheny has been forced to deal with a ton of injuries to his potent offensive lineup, and because of it, the starting staff’s true colors have started to shine through. St. Louis dropped each of the first three with the Mets (as chalk) heading into Monday’s extended series finale; they managed a grand total of one run in those games and had the first ever no-hitter thrown at them by a member of the Mets.

    On The Docket: The Redbirds will attempt to get healthy at Minute Maid Park for three (6-4 L/10) before returning home from their 10-game road trip to battle the Cleveland Indians in Interleague play; St. Louis is 15-15 its L/30 vs. the American League.

    Oakland A’s (1-5, -$385): The losing streak reached nine in a row before the A’s finally snapped it with a 9-3 win over the Royals on Saturday; Manager Bob Melvin’s squad then went on to drop the finale 2-0. It was the third shutout absorbed by this offensively challenged ball club over the last week, increasing the season’s running total to 11 overall. The lack of offense has flat out killed Oakland’s starting staff, as it’s pitched a heck of a lot better than a 23-31 overall record indicates.

    On The Docket: Oakland will attempt to improve upon its poor home record (10-15, -$515) with four against the Texas Rangers before heading to the desert to battle the D-backs in Interleague play; the A’s are 14-16 their L/30 versus the NL.

    Baltimore Orioles (1-5, -$359): The O’s reign atop the AL East looks to be all but over. After dropping two of three in “The Trop” over the weekend, manager Buck Showalter’s squad currently sits a game in back of the Rays and is in danger of falling into last place as closely contested as this division has been over the first two months of the season. Injuries to Nick Markakis and Adam Jones have handcuffed this team offensively, as it’s managed an average of just 2.5 runs per game the L/8 times the squad took to the playing field.

    On The Docket: Baltimore will attempt to build upon its success within the division (17-12) on the road against the Red Sox for three before returning home (14-13, $143) to welcome the Philadelphia Phillies in for an Interleague set; the O’s are 13-17 their L/30 against the NL.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #3
      Diamond Trends - Tuesday

      June 5, 2012


      SU TREND OF THE DAY:


      The Rangers are 14-0 since July 01, 2011 as a favorite after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings for a net profit of $1400.

      OU TREND OF THE DAY:


      The Angels are 0-17-3 OU since April 12, 2011 as a favorite after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $1700 when playing the under.


      STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:


      The Reds are 12-0 since May 18, 2010 when Homer Bailey starts after more strike outs than hits allowed and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $1225.


      MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:


      The Orioles are 14-2 (1.8 rpg) sinced August 2008 after a game where they were not -150+ favorites and had at least three errors and benefited from less than two.


      TODAY’S TRENDS:


      The Giants are 0-8 since June 17, 2011 when Tim Lincecum starts in the first game of a series for a net profit of $1020 when playing against.

      The Brewers are 10-0 since April 26, 2010 when Yovani Gallardo starts as a 140+ favorite in the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #4
        Mets look to overtake Nats in NL East Tuesday

        NEW YORK METS (31-24)

        at WASHINGTON NATIONALS (30-22)


        First pitch: Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
        Line: Washington -155, New York +145, Total: 7

        The Mets and Nationals will begin a three-game series in Washington Tuesday, with the Mets sitting just one-half game behind the Nats and Marlins for first place in the NL East.

        The Mets enter this game having won three of their last four while the Nationals have lost four of their last five contests. In those games, the Nats averaged just 2.2 runs per game. Phenom Jordan Zimmermann takes the hill for Washington with a 2.80 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the season, although he has a 4.50 ERA in his past three outings. Chris Young will toe the rubber for the Mets, his first major-league start since missing most of last season and the beginning to this year with shoulder surgery. If Young could choose one team to start against, though, it would probably be the Nationals. He has a 3-1 record against them in his career with a 2.63 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in six starts. The Mets have also been dominant against right-handed starters this season with a 24-10 record (.706). Zimmermann has started against the Mets seven times in his young career with a 2-2 record, 3.65 ERA and a very hittable 1.38 WHIP. If he allows that many Mets on base Monday, he could definitely be in trouble to lose a second consecutive start. Play on NEW YORK as strong underdogs to win.

        This rare five-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Mets:

        Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (N.Y. METS) - average hitting team (AVG =.255 to .269) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.00) -NL, with a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 on the season. (35-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.8%, +37.3 units. Rating = 5*).

        A good start from Young will be key for the Mets in this game with a struggling bullpen. New York relievers have a 5.45 ERA on the season, a number that spikes to 6.66 on the road with a 1.62 WHIP. Young has the ability to be successful, however, against this weak Washington lineup. The Nats are hitting just .247 in home games and .247 against righty starters, averaging 3.7 and 3.8 runs in those games, respectively. And with the Nationals week offense in their past five games, this could be the perfect opportunity to win in his first game back. Take him as the underdog.

        Even if Zimmermann doesn’t have his best stuff, he, unlike Young, has a tremendous support net behind him. The Washington bullpen has a 3.06 ERA on the season with 18 saves already, and that ERA drops to 2.94 in home games. The Nationals are 16-9 at home (.640) and took two of three from the Mets earlier this season. The Nats are 21-18 versus the Mets over the past three years, but have actually struggled at home with an 8-10 mark in that span. Avoid these home favorites.
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #5
          MLB
          Armadillo's Write-Up

          Tuesday, June 5

          Hot pitchers
          -- Bailey is 3-0, 2.53 in his last three starts. Lincoln won his only '12 start, allowing two runs in six IP.
          -- JGarcia is 1-1, 3.10 in his last three starts.
          -- Gallardo is 2-0, 2.79 in his last three starts.

          -- Pettitte is 2-1, 2.86 in his last three starts.
          -- Jimenez is 2-2, 8.85 in his last four starts.
          -- BChen is 4-1, 4.71 in his last five starts.
          -- White Sox won last three Humber starts, scoring 21 runs.
          -- Blackley allowed one run in five IP last week at Minnesota, in his first start since '08.

          Cold pitchers
          -- Zimmerman is 0-3, 5.40 in his last three home starts. Young is making '12 debut after being hurt a lot; he's made four starts in both 2010/2011-- he was 3-0, 1.43 but he can't stay healthy. This is his 140th career start.
          -- Billingsley is 0-3, 6.10 in his last six starts. Lee is 0-1, 4.95 in his last three starts; he is winless in eight starts this season.
          -- ASanchez is 1-3, 3.67 in his last four starts. THudson is 0-1, 8.76 in his last two starts.
          -- Harrell is 3-4, 6.95 in his last eight starts.
          -- Dempster is 0-2, 5.70 in his last four starts.
          -- Kennedy is 1-5, 5.26 in his last six starts. Guthrie is 1-2, 8.50 in his last three outings.
          -- Lincecum is 0-4, 6.28 in his last five starts. Bass is 0-1, 7.31 in his last three starts.

          -- Shields is 1-2, 6.66 in his lat four starts.
          -- Smyly is 1-1, 6.97 in his last four starts.
          -- Hammel has a 5.09 RA in his last four starts. Lester is 1-1, 9.20 in his last three starts.
          -- Liriano is 1-5, 8.35 in seven starts, but had a good start last time out.
          -- Romero is 0-1, 5.19 in his last three road starts.
          -- Beavan has a 5.32 RA in his last four starts. Richards is making his first '12 start; he is 0-2, 5.40 in 15 big league IP; he started three games LY, and is 5-2, 4.31 in 10 AAA starts this year.
          -- Holland is 1-2, 9.64 in his last three starts.

          Hot Teams
          -- Mets won nine of their last thirteen games.
          -- Marlins won seven of their last nine games.
          -- Reds won seven of their last eight home games. Pittsburgh won seven of its last nine games overall.
          -- Brewers won five of their last seven games.
          -- Giants won seven of their last eight games.
          -- Colorado won seven of its last eight games.

          -- Bronx Bombers won eight of their last eleven games. Tampa Bay won five of its last six road games.
          -- Red Sox won eight of their last eleven home games.
          -- Minnesota won six of its last seven games. Royals won six of their last nine games.
          -- White Sox won ten of their last eleven games.
          -- Mariners won seven of their last ten road games. Angels won ten of their last thirteen games, but lost last two.

          Cold Teams
          -- Washington lost four of its last five games.
          -- Braves lost five of their last six road games.
          -- Cardinals lost nine of their last eleven road games. Houston lost eight of its last nine games overall.
          -- Cubs lost their last eleven road games.
          -- Philly lost seven of its last nine home games. Dodgers lost six of their last eight games overall.
          -- Arizona lost 15 of its last 21 home games.
          -- Padres lost eight of their last nine games.

          -- Indians lost seven of their last nine games. Detroit lost five of seven.
          -- Orioles lost seven of their last eight games.
          -- Toronto lost its last five road games, allowing 47 runs.
          -- Oakland lost ten of its last twelve games. Texas lost five of last six.

          Totals
          -- Over is 16-4 in Mets' last twenty road games.
          -- Over is 6-1-1 in the Phillies' last nine games.
          -- Reds' last three home games went over the total.
          -- Under is 7-0-1 in Atlanta's last eight road games.
          -- Four of last five Houston road games stayed under.
          -- Under is 7-1-1 in Cubs' last nine road games.
          -- Seven of last eight Arizona games stayed under total.
          -- Four of last five games at Petco Park stayed under.

          -- Under is 12-3-1 in last sixteen Bronx home games.
          -- Over is 9-2-1 in Cleveland's last dozen road games.
          -- Six of last eight Baltimore games stayed under total. Last four games at Fenway Park went over.
          -- This is ***************.com. Have a terrific Tuesday.
          -- Over is 6-2-1 in Minnesota's last nine road games. Five of last seven Kansas City games went over the total.
          -- 10 of last 12 White Sox home games went over the total.
          -- Five of last six Seattle road games went over the total.
          -- Over is 6-3-1 in Rangers' last ten games.
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • #6
            Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

            06/04/12 5-*8-*1 38.46% -*1810 Detail
            06/03/12 16-*11-*1 59.26% +*1805 Detail
            06/02/12 15-*14-*0 51.72% -*620 Detail
            06/01/12 16-*11-*1 59.26% +*2365 Detail

            Totals 52-*44-*3 54.17% +1740


            Tuesday, June 5

            Game Score Status Pick Amount

            Tampa Bay - 7:05 PM ET NY Yankees -124 500
            NY Yankees - Under 8.5 500

            NY Mets - 7:05 PM ET Washington -154 500
            Washington - Over 7 500

            LA Dodgers - 7:05 PM ET Philadelphia -180 500
            Philadelphia - Over 6.5 500

            Cleveland - 7:05 PM ET Cleveland +148 500
            Detroit - Over 9 500

            Baltimore - 7:10 PM ET Baltimore +157 500
            Boston - Over 8.5 500

            Atlanta - 7:10 PM ET Miami -132 500
            Miami - Under 7.5 500

            Pittsburgh - 7:10 PM ET Cincinnati -148 500
            Cincinnati - Under 7.5 500

            St. Louis - 8:05 PM ET St. Louis -133 500
            Houston - Over 9 500

            Toronto - 8:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox -107 500
            Chi. White Sox - Over 8 500

            Minnesota - 8:10 PM ET Minnesota +119 500
            Kansas City - Under 9 500

            Chi. Cubs - 8:10 PM ET Milwaukee -146 500
            Milwaukee - Under 7 500

            Colorado - 9:40 PM ET Colorado +143 500
            Arizona - Under 9.5 500

            Seattle - 10:05 PM ET Seattle +139 500
            LA Angels - Over 8 500

            Texas - 10:05 PM ET Texas -151 500
            Oakland - Over 7.5 500

            San Francisco - 10:05 PM ET San Francisco -106 500
            San Diego - Over 6 500
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment

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