The Bum's Monday's MLB Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Diamond Trends - Monday

June 4, 2012


SU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Phillies are 12-0 since April 06, 2011 at home after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $1200.


OU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Mets are 11-0 OU since May 14, 2011 when playing a day game when they blew a lead in their starter’s last start and lost for a net profit of $1100 when playing the over.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:


The Dodgers are 11-0 since May 29, 2011 when Clayton Kershaw starts as a favorite after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $1100.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:


Dillon Gee has produced a team record of 4-10 since July 2011 following a start where he threw at least 98 pitches (7-3 after starts where he threw less).

TODAY’S TRENDS:


The Angels are 1-9 since September 09, 2008 when Ervin Santana starts as a home 140+ favorite after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $1220 when playing against.

The Giants are 0-11 OU since May 08, 2011 when Ryan Vogelsong starts at home after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $1100 when playing the under.

[StarDust Bum]

Kershaw looks to pitch L.A. past Philly Monday

LOS ANGELES DODGERS (33-21)

at PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (28-27)


First pitch: Monday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -120, Philadelphia +110, Total: 7

The slumping Dodgers (1-6 in past seven games) will put the majors’ best record on the line Monday, when they begin a four-game set with the Phillies who sit above .500, but are still in last place in the NL East.

Reigning NL Cy Young award winner Clayton Kershaw has not disappointed in the 2012 campaign with a 2.42 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, registering 64 strikeouts and just 19 walks. In seven starts, his less proven opponent Vance Worley is also off to a good start with a 3.07 ERA and 3:1 K-to-BB ratio. He has been hittable, however, with a 1.34 WHIP and his numbers get worse at home with a 3.79 ERA and 1.42 WHIP at Citizens Bank Park. Worley hasn’t pitched since May 11 due to an inflamed elbow. Kershaw has an 0-5 record in his career against the Phillies, sporting a poor 5.73 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. But he did not face them all of last season and in his two 2010 starts against Philadelphia he allowed just two runs in each start. And it is quite fair to say Kershaw is a far improved pitcher than he was a few years ago. Worley started against the Dodgers once in his career, yielding six earned in four innings last August for a 13.50 ERA and 2.50 WHIP. Given how elite of a pitcher Kershaw is, it is surprising the Dodgers are only slight favorites. The Phillies are a weak home team at 12-15 (.444), so they should not receive help just for playing at Citizens Bank Park. Play on LOS ANGELES to win.

This FoxSheets trend also favors the Dodgers:

Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA DODGERS) - after 3 consecutive games versus a division rival, playing on Monday. (112-73 over the last 5 seasons.) (60.5%, +43.3 units. Rating = 2*).

Star Matt Kemp is injured once again for the Dodgers but they have demonstrated no trouble winning without him this season. They’ve lost six of their past seven games, but that included losing both games Kemp played. In the middle of May, they rattled off a six-game winning streak without him. The offense has certainly been weak lately with just 3.3 runs per game over their past nine contests, but they are hitting the ball well during this stretch (.274 BA, .349 OBP) with double-digit hits in six of those games. Eventually those hits will turn into more runs and their luck will even out. L.A. is 7-4 with Kershaw on the mound this season, and 27-10 (.730) with Kershaw starting in the past two seasons when the total is 7 or less. Play on the Dodgers behind their ace to win.

History favors the Phillies in this series who are 9-3 versus the Dodgers over the past three seasons, including 4-2 in Philadelphia. Before Worley’s injury, he carried a 2.81 ERA and 35 K in 32 IP over his previous five starts. And for his career, Worley is 8-3 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.14 WHIP when pitching at Citizens Bank Park. A good sign for him is that the Phils are slowly improving their batting statistics, now ranking fifth in the majors in batting average at .268. Even with their one run on Sunday, the team has scored 5.0 runs per game in their past 11 contests. The Phillies have just 46 home runs on the season though (21 at home), and need to start taking more advantage of the bandbox in Philadelphia so they develop a better home record. Until they prove they can do that, play against.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, June 4

Hot pitchers
-- Gee is 2-0, 2.66 in his last three starts.
-- Vogelsong is 3-1, 1.73 in his last six starts. Samardzija is 3-2, 2.12 in his last seven starts.
-- Worley was 3-1, 2.81 in his last five starts before going on DL.

-- Parker is 0-0, 1.69 in his last couple starts, but A's lost his last four outings, scoring a total of 10 runs.

Cold pitchers
-- Lohse is 0-0, 6.08 in his last four starts.
-- Kershaw is 0-2, 6.00 in his last couple starts.
-- Saunders is 1-2, 10.43 in his last three home starts. Friedrich has 9.00 RA in his last three starts overall.

-- Smith is 1-1, 6.75 in his first two '12 starts. De Vries is 0-1, 5.40 in his first two starts.
-- Feldman is 0-3, 7.24 in his last three starts.
-- Santana is 0-0, 8.10 in his last couple starts. Vargas is 2-2, 4.72 in his last four outings.

Hot Teams
-- Mets won nine of their last twelve games.
-- Giants won six of their last seven games.
-- Colorado won six of its last seven games. Arizona won three of four.

-- Minnesota won five of its last six games. Royals won six of their last eight games.
-- Mariners won six of their last nine road games. Angels won ten of their last twelve games.

Cold Teams
-- Cardinals lost nine of their last ten road games; they scored twice in their last three games.
-- Cubs lost their last ten road games.
-- Philly lost six of its last eight home games. Dodgers lost six of their last seven games overall.

-- Oakland lost ten of its last eleven games. Texas lost four of five.

Totals
-- Over is 9-3-1 in last thirteen games at Citi Field.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in Cubs' last eight road games.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Kershaw starts.
-- Five of last six Saunders starts went over the total.

-- Over is 6-2-1 in Minnesota's last nine road games.
-- This is ***************.com. Hope you enjoy it.
-- Three of last four Parker starts stayed under total.
-- Seven of last nine Santana starts stayed under the total.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Monday, June 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

St. Louis 1 Top 6 St. Louis -121 500
NY Mets 1 Over 8.5 500

Chi. Cubs - 3:45 PM ET Chi. Cubs +126 500
San Francisco - Under 7 500

LA Dodgers - 7:05 PM ET Philadelphia +112 500
Philadelphia - Under 7 500

Minnesota - 8:10 PM ET Minnesota +133 500
Kansas City - Under 9.5 500

Colorado - 9:40 PM ET Colorado +124 500
Arizona - Over 9.5 500

Seattle - 10:05 PM ET LA Angels -149 500
LA Angels - Under 7.5 500

Texas - 10:05 PM ET Texas -130 500
Oakland - Under 7.5 500