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**StarDust Bum** · 05-19-2012, 10:01 AM

Preakness Stakes Finds Bodemeister The Favorite

The second leg of The Triple Crown provides handicappers with another unique set of challenges. A field of 11 will break from the starting gate at Pimlico Race Course in Saturday's Preakness Stakes, with six of the runners wheeling right back from performing in the Kentucky Derby.

Bodemeister (No. 7, 8/5) will again be able to garner the lead, but it’s quite likely he won’t have to exact as much energy as he did early on in the Kentucky Derby. The easy thought process is the shorter distance should make life easier on Bob Baffert’s talented three-year-old, but that may not be the case.

Can Bodemeister be caught? He ran an incredible race in the Derby and won’t have Trinniberg to deal with this time around. The question that has to be answered is how much did his runner-up effort at Louisville take out of him?

The fact that the race is shorter will prompt several jockeys to be in closer contact with the pacesetter, and weaving through traffic should not be as daunting a task as it was two weeks ago. Went the Day Well’s closing effort in the Kentucky Derby gave the appearance of a sure fire Belmont Stakes winner. The connections could see that but feel with a cleaner trip, the Preakness is right in his wheelhouse as well. Went The Day Well is 6-1 and will break from the fifth post position.

Creative Cause (No. 6, 6/1), Daddy Nose Best (No. 8, 12/1) and Optimizer (No. 10, 30/1) will take another kick at the can in Maryland. Creative Cause ran wide in the Derby and could turn things around on Saturday, while Daddy Nose Best simply didn’t fire. The up and down nature of three-year-old thoroughbreds has trainer Steve Assmussen willing to give Daddy Nose Best another shot.

I’ll Have Another is priced at 5/2 midweek and faces another stiff test Saturday out of the ninth post. To his credit, he has answered the bell throughout his sophomore campaign. Pressure continues to mount on young rider Mario Guittierez, but this kid seems to have ice in his veins. He couldn’t have mapped out a better trip in Louisville and his mounts running style suits this race beautifully.

The new shooters have arrived and freshness can certainly be viewed as an asset when facing the group that had to tackle the longest race of their careers just two weeks ago. No. 2 Teeth of the Dog (15/1) will be saddled by trainer Michael Matz, who will wait to run Union Rags in the Belmont. The three-year-old son of Bluegrass Cat looks to have the best chance of crashing the exotics off a third place finish in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in early April.

No. 11 Cozzetti (30/1) has been working like a top at Churchill Downs. He was last seen finishing fourth in the Arkansas Derby behind Bodemeister.

Dullahan, who finished third in the Kentucky Derby, will bypass the Preakness with plans of running in the Belmont. Trainer Dale Romans was planning to take another shot at Pimlico, but Dullahan’s owner Jerry Crawford made the ultimate decision to take the short break.

The $1,000,000 Preakness Stakes is Race 12 on Pimlico's Saturday card with a post time of 6:18 p.m. (ET), and NBC will have the broadcast with pre-race coverage beginning nearly two hours earlier.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-19-2012, 10:06 AM

Preakness Stakes Breakdown

May 18, 2012

Fresh off their 1-2 finish in the G1 Kentucky Derby two weeks ago at Churchill Downs, I'll Have Another and Bodemeister are the main attractions for Saturday's G1 Preakness at Pimlico, the second Jewel of the Triple Crown. In all, six Derby runners are back in Baltimore for the Preakness while five new shooters will look to leave their mark on an American classic.

Let's break it down!!

2012 Breakdown
PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Preakness Record) Owner (Preakness Record)

1 - Tiger Walk 30/1 **Ramon Dominguez (0-10) Ignacio Correas (Debut)
Notes: Trainer "Nacho" Correas adds blinkers for this, a move I never understood as this isn't just some race: it's the Preakness!!! For as long as I live I will not get trainers making equipment changes in big races but that's what he's doing. He hasn't made much noise since breaking his maiden four starts back in his first dirt start though he did manage to grab minor shares in the G3 Withers, G3 Gotham and G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in his last three. Obviously a cut below but Desormeaux sure knows his way around Pimlico and has two Preakness wins under his belt. In what's become the norm for him, a minor award is probably his ceiling. **Note -- Jockey Ramon Dominguez replaces Kent Desormeaux, who was removed after failing a Breathalyzer test. This will be the 10th Preakness for Dominguez, who finished second aboard Scrappy T in 2005 and First Dude in 2010.

2 - Teeth of the Dog 15/1 Joe Bravo (0-3) Michael Matz (0/1)
Notes: Matz returns to the scene of what probably qualifies as one of the saddest days of his life as Pimlico is where the ill-fated Barbaro broke down passing the stands for the first time in the 2006 renewal. The romantics out there have that in the back of their minds too, I can almost guarantee it and that just means more "bad" money on this guy. He did manage to get third in the Wood Memorial last out at 53/1 but someone had to and the first two finishers didn't run a step between them last out in Louisville. His biggest impact on the race will come in the first five furlongs or so as he appears to have some speed but I doubt he'll be around when it really counts.

3 - Pretension 30/1 Javier Santiago (Debut) Christopher Grove (0/1)
Notes: Posted a minor upset in a minor stakes at Pimlico on Derby Day but it was in a suspect five horse field. Runner-up Brimstone Island was declared from the Preakness earlier in the week with his trainer saying he wasn't right while third place finisher My Adonis was the lone AE in the Derby field, took a van to Louisville the previous Tuesday then vanned back east on Friday morning when he was scratched from the Derby. His two starts against graded stakes competition earlier this year in the Gotham and G3 Illinois Derby weren't good at all. Like Teeth of the Dog, he has some speed to have an effect on things early but should be far back late.

4 - Zetterholm 20/1 Junior Alvarado (Debut) Rick Dutrow, Jr. (1-2)
Notes: Interesting week for Dutrow as he'll saddle this colt in the Preakness then fight for his professional life in court a few days later as he's staring down the barrel of a ten year ban. Since taking over his training at the beginning of the year, Zetterholm has improved with each start and has won his last three, albeit all have come against New York breds. He's gaining ground at the end of each of his starts, a great sign especially when you consider he's taking on about an extra eight of a mile or so and I like that Dutrow is sticking with the up-and-coming Alvarado who's been aboard for his last two scores. If the pace is quick, and I imagine it will be, this guy will be coming late. In my opinion, he holds the best chance out of all the new shooters at upsetting the Derby runners.

5 - Went the Day Well 6/1 John Velazquez (0-4) Graham Motion (0-4)
Notes: These connections fell a ½ length short of turning Belmont into a mad(der?) house last year when their Derby winner Animal Kingdom came that close to nailing Shackleford on the line. The question is did they, more specifically Johnny V, learn anything from last year? Animal Kingdom was too far back and it cost him. This guy didn't have the best break last out and had to close from far back but his earlier races lead me to believe he will be much, much closer to the pace on Saturday. If he is, he could very well be the one to pick up the pieces. It'll be his second start with blinkers, an angle I like a bit better than first time blinkers especially with younger horses, and unlike some others, has done some of his best work on shorter rest as evident by his G3 Spiral score coming just three weeks after his maiden victory. A top tier prospect for me.

6 - Creative Cause 6/1 Joel Rosario (Debut) Mike Harrington (Debut)
Notes: I can't remember my opinion changing more about a horse than it has about this colt over the past few months. When they hit the wire in the G1 B.C. Juvenile last year, he was my Derby horse. But as this winter wore on I started falling out of love with him. I don't like that he can get goofy in the stretch or the fact that he shipped back to California after the Derby then back east for this, but the thing I hate most is that he lacks the knockout punch. He just can't seem to finish the job. Yeah, he was wide in Kentucky but plenty of horses were and he almost always seems to be wide so it's really not an excuse. He just doesn't finish the game and I still think he has soundness issues. He's starting to get the "wiseguy" vibe too, which I love in this case because I'm tossing him out completely.

7 - Bodemeister 8/5 Mike Smith (1/13) Bob Baffert (5/12)
Notes: "By the time 2012 comes to an end there's a good chance they'll be erecting statues of this colt," is how I started my Derby Breakdown about this guy. It may still happen, but I'd like to take the statement back officially. Now, he may go about his business and cropdust the other ten runners in here but he won't be doing it with my money on his nose to win. I couldn't believe he was on the lead in the Derby over Trinniberg and originally though it was Smith's fault. Obviously I was wrong since he's back in the saddle so I have to think that Baffert told him to do it which blows my mind. And I have to think he'll be cutting the pace again. This will be his sixth race in 125 days and while that wouldn't ordinarily be a deal-breaker for me, it is when it's the first six starts of your career as a three-year-old, especially when the last two came in a 9 ½ length romp in a quick time and in the Derby where he went 22 and change, 45 and change, 09 and change and a flat mile in 1:35. Ten other Derby runners went a sub :46 half in front; none of them finished better than tenth. That may make him a freak, but in my book, a freak would have gotten to that wire first in Louisville and he didn't. Combine that with the fact that he'll be the big favorite and will probably get some cheap speed to keep him company early and I can't see him winning. I'll use him underneath in gimmicks in case no one else fires but not on top.

8 - Daddy Nose Best 12/1 Julien Leparoux (0-4) Steve Asmussen (2-5)
Notes: As I get older, I realize just how many stupid things I've done in my life and one of the things I've done numerous times up until a few years back is fall for horses like him, ones that weren't being considered for a race before being thrown into the ring at the eleventh hour. Asmussen was thinking about running two or three others in here and didn't even mention this guy until he declared the others. Some vote of confidence, huh? Was getting a ton of attention heading into the first Saturday in May and unlike some others that probably weren't 100 percent going in or had legitimate trouble during the race, this guy just didn't fire. You could draw a line through it if you like (another line I refuse to fall for anymore) but keep in mind that his lone dirt win came after a ridiculously fast early pace that he took advantage of over one of the aforementioned Asmussen runners that isn't in here. Not for me.

9 - I'll Have Another 5/2 Mario Gutierrez (Debut) Doug O'Neill (Debut)
Notes: I would never, ever, ever take anything away from the Kentucky Derby winner; I have too much respect for the race to do that but even his connections would admit they couldn't have scripted this years' Run for the Roses any better. He drew outside any of the early traffic trouble, managed to save ground even though he broke from post 19 and never had a straw in his path en route to a solid victory. Odds are that simply will not happen again. Perfect trips are a supremely rare commodity so getting back-to-back ones is improbable to say the least. He had Trinniberg to do the dirty work last time but if Teeth of the Dog or Pretension don't leave out of there he'll be the one chasing Bodemeister which will not only make Gutierrez use him more in the early running but it'll also take him a bit out of his element as he likes to stalk and pounce, not chase and battle. He's a fresh horse, having run just three times this year but I'm sure there is a reason or reasons for that too. He's in my top tier but he may actually need to be the superhorse and not Bodemeister if he's to win this.

10 - Optimizer 30/1 Corey Nakatani (0-3) D. Wayne Lukas (5-36)
Notes: Really, D. Wayne? REALLY?!?!? What can he possibly be telling his owners that they allow him to run this horse in here - he put in the greatest eleventh place finish in Derby history? He's started seven times on dirt and ran good once. ONCE!! At least he gets a money Triple Crown rider in Nakatani whose next win in a Triple Crown race will be his first. What a joke.

11 - Cozzetti 30/1 Jose Lezcano (Debut) Dale Romans (1-3)
Notes: Shackleford was as gutsy as they come on the front end the entire way last year for Romans to get his trainer his only Triple Crown race win to date. If this guy follows in his stablemates' hoofprints he'll likely come from dead last to win. His last two were sneaky good even though he only managed minor awards and the post won't matter since he'll be far back early anyway. I'm not sure he can win unless everything goes picture perfect but I can see him spicing up the exotic wagers. Using him underneath.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-19-2012, 10:20 AM

My Derby Winner with Exotics

5. Went the Day Well (+600); Jockey: John R. Velazquez

Put on blinkers in the Derby and closed sharply. Had a rough start in the race and most Preakness winners come out of the Derby field. He’s got a shot.

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Exacta Box....5 , 7 , 9 , 11

5. Went the Day Well (+600); Jockey: John R. Velazquez

Put on blinkers in the Derby and closed sharply. Had a rough start in the race and most Preakness winners come out of the Derby field. He’s got a shot.

7. Bodemeister (+270); Jockey: Mike Smith

The clear favorite because of his blistering speed but Smith will have to wing it again here and that just doesn’t bode well. I really feel that he wins or misses the board completely and I’m going with the latter.

9. I’ll Have Another (+350); Jockey: Mario Gutierrez

If you think this horse is a fluke consider he’s won three straight races and just posted his best yet. Gutierrez put him in great position in the Derby despite starting from the No. 19 post last time out. That’s why I ruled him out last time and I’m still kicking myself for it.

11 - Cozzetti 30/1 Jose Lezcano (Debut) Dale Romans (1-3)
Notes: Shackleford was as gutsy as they come on the front end the entire way last year for Romans to get his trainer his only Triple Crown race win to date. If this guy follows in his stablemates' hoofprints he'll likely come from dead last to win. His last two were sneaky good even though he only managed minor awards and the post won't matter since he'll be far back early anyway. I'm not sure he can win unless everything goes picture perfect but I can see him spicing up the exotic wagers. Using him underneath.

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Trifecta Box.....5 , 7 , 9 , 11

5. Went the Day Well (+600); Jockey: John R. Velazquez

Put on blinkers in the Derby and closed sharply. Had a rough start in the race and most Preakness winners come out of the Derby field. He’s got a shot.

7. Bodemeister (+270); Jockey: Mike Smith

The clear favorite because of his blistering speed but Smith will have to wing it again here and that just doesn’t bode well. I really feel that he wins or misses the board completely and I’m going with the latter.

9. I’ll Have Another (+350); Jockey: Mario Gutierrez

If you think this horse is a fluke consider he’s won three straight races and just posted his best yet. Gutierrez put him in great position in the Derby despite starting from the No. 19 post last time out. That’s why I ruled him out last time and I’m still kicking myself for it.

11 - Cozzetti 30/1 Jose Lezcano (Debut) Dale Romans (1-3)
Notes: Shackleford was as gutsy as they come on the front end the entire way last year for Romans to get his trainer his only Triple Crown race win to date. If this guy follows in his stablemates' hoofprints he'll likely come from dead last to win. His last two were sneaky good even though he only managed minor awards and the post won't matter since he'll be far back early anyway. I'm not sure he can win unless everything goes picture perfect but I can see him spicing up the exotic wagers. Using him underneath.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-19-2012, 11:22 AM

Preakness Stakes odds: Best long shot bets on the board

The general consensus among racing pundits is that the more entries in the Preakness the weaker the top horses.

A couple of days ago as many as 16 horses were strong considerations for the race. Now there are just 11 in the field, some scared off by Bodemeister’s speed, and others who just don’t feel they can come back in two weeks off the Kentucky Derby.

Since 1984 only three horses have won the Preakness that didn’t race in the Derby. That would mean that I'll Have Another, Bodemeister, Creative Cause or Went the Day Well have the best chance on Saturday.

While Bodemeister and I’ll Have Another figure to take most of the money at the windows, here are a few horses that can steal this race at a price.

Creative Cause (+600); Jockey: Joel Rosario

You’ll most likely get around 8-1 when the race goes off on this one. Creative Cause finished fifth in the Kentucky Derby, the first time he’d ever missed the board. Trainer Mike Harrington’s charge has raced against the best and never lost by more than a length until the Run for the Roses.

Frankly, he was due for a stinker, and if fifth in the Derby is to be considered a bad race, then there’s still plenty left in the tank for the Cause who rallied home eight wide.

Take away the traffic that Creative Cause endured in the race and the stretch drive would have been much easier. Creative Cause has also beaten Bodemeister and has posted a Beyer figure of 102. That type of race could put him in the winner’s circle here.

Teeth of the Dog (+1500); Jockey: Joe Bravo

Went off a 53-1 in his last race, taking third in the Wood Memorial. When Bravo asked the Dog to run he did and he never stopped. His final furlong was a pedestrian 13 seconds but if he gets off to a better start and the top guns fail to fire this one could surprise. Teeth of the Dog beat Went the Day Well in February as the 2-1 favorite.

Cozzetti (+3000); Jockey: Jose Lezcano

A decided longshot, Cozzetti is the son of Cozzene who won the Breeders’ Cup Mile in 1985. While there isn’t too much to hang your hat on with this one he is trained by Dale Romans who won this race last year with Shackleford and finished second two years ago with First Dude. Obviously Romans knows a little about this race.

Romans decided against starting Dullahan in the Preakness and will enter him in the Belmont. So, he’s giving Cozzetti a shot here.

The negatives: It took Cozzetti three tries to break his maiden and he’s winless in four starts since. His Beyer figures stink and Bodemeister walloped him in the Arkansas Derby.

Preakness Stakes handicapping: Three betting trends of note

Trends are a valuable part of any handicapping and that’s especially true in horse racing. To help you uncover the winner of the Preakness, here are three valuable Preakness Stakes trends to consider:

Kentucky Derby winner

Unless something changes drastically between now and post time, the Derby winner won’t be favored in the Preakness — a reasonably uncommon occurrence. More interesting than that, though, is the consideration of whether I’ll Have Another can head to the Belmont with a chance to end the Triple Crown drought.

Over the last 31 years we have seen 10 Derby winners take the Preakness. That’s just under a third of all races — roughly the same percentage of races won by the favorites. In the last seven years we have seen just one — Big Brown in 2008. Animal Kingdom came as close as any last year, but didn’t quite have enough ground left at the end when he was gaining on Shackleford.

While I’ll Have Another likely won’t be the post-time favorite most Derby winners are. In other words, the Derby favorite doesn’t really seem to have a particular advantage in this race over the medium term.

Horses that didn’t run in the Kentucky Derby

On the surface it might seem tempting to pick a horse that didn’t run in the Derby to win the Preakness. After all, they are well rested while Derby entrants are just two weeks removed from by far the toughest race of their careers.

The truth is that betting on the fresher horses is usually a terrible idea. In the last 28 years we have seen just three fresh horses win the Preakness. Looking at the last 15 editions of the Preakness we have seen 91 new entrants. Only three of those have won — just over three percent. The other 12 winners have come from among the 77 horses who were also in the Derby. That’s a rate of 16 percent. That means that it is five times more likely for a Derby entrant to win the Preakness than it is for a fresh horse to do so.

Things get even more bleak when you consider the last two fresh horses to win the Preakness — Bernardini and Rachel Alexandra. The former was a highly-touted, wildly-impressive colt who could very well have been favored had he gone in the Derby. The latter was the best filly of her generation — and several before and since. So, they were both exceptional horses.

Most fresh entrants in the Preakness are a long way from exceptional. The group this year is weak even compared to most recent groups. The chances of one of these horses breaking through and winning clearly exists, but it is tiny.

On the lead

Bodemeister is going to try to win wire-to-wire and the rest of the horses are going to try to chase him down — with I’ll Have Another likely leading that charge reasonably close to the leader. The lead shouldn’t be a terribly tough place to be in this race — the Preakness is shorter than the Derby and the set-up of the turns at Pimlico makes it tougher for horses to gain momentum by going wide.

Historically, it hasn't been a good strategy to be on the lead. In the last 52 years only five horses have wired the field. In the last 15 years, Rachel Alexandra is the only horse to be on the lead at the half-mile mark that went on to win.

That seems o be particularly bad news for the favorite here. Shackleford was second last year and close to the lead the whole way before taking over on the final turn. Others have essentially contested the early pace before winning as well.

There is one other major factor to consider — the types of horses that typically lead. Most often the front-runners are horses that have speed as their only trick. They know they aren’t likely good enough to win, so they hope they can get away up front and hold on to steal the win. It’s a low percentage strategy, but often the best bet the horses have.

Bodemeister is not your typical speed horse. On top of his exceptional speed he has serious stamina bred into him as well. He did fade late in the Derby, but not compared to the other speed horses — Trinniberg pushed Bodemeister early on and wound up 30 lengths back at the wire. Most speed horses are on a suicide mission and they know it, but Bodemeister is different.

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The Bum's Preakness Exotics and Winner !

The Bum's Preakness Exotics and Winner !

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