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  • The Bum's Tuesday's MLB Best Bets !

    Braves And Reds Square Off Tuesday In Atlanta

    A full slate of Major League Baseball action is on tap for Tuesday, with a couple of NL East vs. NL Central clashes as the featured matchups on the card.

    A quick check of the NL East standings notes that Atlanta (22-13) and Miami (18-16) have gone into a full gallop over the past couple of weeks. Both will be seeking to continue their recent upswings on Tuesday night against Central Division foes before they run into each other in a quick but important two-game set at Turner Field beginning Wednesday night.

    For the Marlins, their current homestand concludes Tuesday when hosting the underdog Pittsburgh Pirates at the new Marlins Stadium. First pitch will be at 7:10 p.m. (ET), with the scheduled pitching matchup pitting the Bucs’ Kevin Correia against Miami’s Josh Johnson.

    Early prices as noted on the Don Best odds screen have the Marlins at -180 at most Las Vegas outlets, with a Pirate win available at +170 or thereabouts. The early total was seven shaded to the ‘under’ at -110. On the Run Line, Miami was +120 when laying an extra run, Pittsburgh an early -140 receiving an extra run.

    For the Marlins, it has hardly been an uneventful first six weeks of the season, but things finally seem to be on track in South Florida as Miami enters this early-week series having won 10 of its last 12 games, which follows a slump that saw the Marlins drop eight of nine between April 20-30. But Miami has rallied despite the distractions involving manager Ozzie Guillen and the implosion of high-priced closer Heath Bell, whose performances have been nothing short of a disaster in the early going this season.

    To wit: Bell, who has been temporarily removed as the frontline closer by Guillen, had another chance to redeem himself on Sunday vs. the Mets when entering the game with the score tied at 2-2 in the top of the ninth inning, but proceeded to allow a pair of runs that ballooned his ERA to a whopping 10.03. Only when the Marlins scored six runs in the bottom of the ninth, the last four courtesy a grand slam by Giancarlo Stanton, was Bell bailed out and awarded with an undeserving win.

    Still, Bell has been one of the few concerns in recent weeks for the Marlins. Power hitting outfielder Stanton has certainly not been a problem, hitting safely in 14 of his last 15 games entering Monday’s series-opening clash and batting a robust .351 over that span. The starting rotation continues to deliver quality efforts as well, with a 3.16 ERA as proof heading into this series.

    Yet for Tuesday starter Johnson, his efforts continue to be surprisingly erratic, although he is off one of his best showings of the young season when holding the Astros to just two runs and four hits over seven innings of work in last Wednesday’s 5-3 win at Minute Maid Park. Previously, Johnson had been rocked in two starts, and his early-season numbers (5.87 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, .329 OBA) indicate his inconsistencies.

    Johnson, however, has dominated the Bucs in the past, posting a 1.64 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in three starts vs. Pittsburgh. The Pirates’ popgun offense, scoring fewer than three runs per game (only 97 in the first 34 games, at 2.85 rpg), should offer a chance for Johnson to get well.

    Despite their ongoing offensive woes in the first six weeks of the campaign, the Bucs have compensated with superb pitching, as their staff entered this series with a stellar 3.18 ERA, ranking behind only Washington. Tuesday’s starter Correia is also notorious for pitching better on the road than at home, posting a 2.20 ERA in three starts away from PNC Park. This is consistent with his performance pattern from a year ago when recording a solid 2.64 ERA in 14 starts as a visitor (compared to a 7.71 ERA in 12 home starts).

    A couple of other trends to note in this matchup include the Pirates’ 23-8 ‘under’ mark (with three pushes) entering this midweek set, and recent Marlins dominance, having won eight straight vs. the Bucs and outscoring them 48-12 prior to this brief series commencing on Monday night.

    The Marlins have needed to be hot to keep pace with the surging Braves, playing host to the Reds in a truncated two-game set before hosting the Marlins on Wednesday and Thursday. The Tuesday pitching matchup vs. Cincy is a good one, as Johnny Cueto goes for the visitors against Atlanta’s Tim Hudson. First pitch in Georgia will be at 7:10 p.m. (ET).

    A check of the Don Best odds screen notes early prices with Atlanta slightly favored at -115 on the win, and the take-back on the Reds at +105. The 7-run total is shaded to the ‘under’ at -120, On the Run Line, Hudson fetches a +185 price minus the run, while Cueto backers will be laying -215 plus the extra run.

    The Braves, home for a brief four-game stint before taking to the road in interleague play at St. Pete vs. the Rays this weekend, entered this homestand off a highly-successful road trip in which they won seven of nine, including an impressive three-game sweep over the Cardinals this past weekend.

    After losing their first four games this season, the Braves have been scorching, winning 22 of their next 31 entering this two-game set vs. the Redlegs. On the just-completed nine-game road road trip, the Braves batted .286 while belting 11 homers and scoring a healthy 6.2 runs per game. Center fielder Michael Bourn continues to be an effective catalyst, hitting .336 with 11 stolen bases and 24 runs scored.

    Especially encouraging for manager Fredi Gonzalez, however, is the quick return to form of Hudson, who underwent offseason back surgery. Hudson has made three starts since returning to active duty and looked as sharp as ever in his most-recent outing when limiting the Cubs to just one run and five hits through seven innings of work last Wednesday at Wrigley Field.

    Hudson is 3-1 lifetime vs. the Reds, although he has not faced them since the 2009 season.

    Hudson will need to be at his best, however, to outpitch Cincy’s Cueto (4-0), whose 1.12 ERA ranks behind only Chicago’s Ryan Dempster among NL starters. Cueto has been almost untouchable in his last four starts, all Reds wins, allowing just two earned runs and 22 hits over 29 1/3 IP. Cueto has also struck out 19 batters and walked just four over that span.

    Cueto has not seen much of the Braves in his career, posting a 1-1 record and 3.10 ERA in four previous starts. He pitched effectively in his lone start vs. Atlanta a year ago in a May 29 game at Turner Field, allowing just two runs and five hits in eight innings of work, although he was outdueled by Jair Jurrjens in a 2-1 Braves win.

    The Reds, who entered this series having won 13 of their last 21, are encouraged by the recent eruption of former MVP first baseman Joey Votto, who had the second three-homer game of his career on Sunday vs. the Nats when also knocking in a personal-best six RBIs in the dramatic 9-6 win, sealed by Votto’s walk-off grand slam.

    For all of the Braves’ recent success, however, they still haven’t been a big money-winner at home this season, entering this series at only +107 units on the Money Line at Turner Field. It’s been on the road (+580 units) where Atlanta has offered its best value thus far in 2012.

    Cueto, if available at a plus price, would be a tempting recommendation
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  • #2
    Diamond Trends - Tuesday

    May 15, 2012

    SU TREND OF THE DAY:


    The Reds are 0-13 since May 28, 2011 as a dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $1300 when playing against.


    OU TREND OF THE DAY:


    The Diamondbacks are 0-10 OU since May 05, 2011 when playing a night game after a loss and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $1000 when playing the under.


    STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:


    The Red Sox are 10-0 since April 10, 2011 when Josh Beckett starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $1005.
    MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:


    CC Sabathia has produced a team record of 22-0 with the Brewers and Yankees on at least full rest following a game where he worked at least 114 pitches and 6.2 innings, which they did not lose by more than two runs.


    TODAY’S TRENDS:


    The Rangers are 16-0 since April 22, 2011 as a favorite after a loss in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1600.

    The White Sox are 0-9 OU since May 03, 2011 at home after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $900 when playing the under.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #3
      Sabathia tries to dominate Orioles again Tuesday


      NEW YORK YANKEES (20-15)

      at BALTIMORE ORIOLES (22-14)


      First pitch: Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
      Line: New York -150, Baltimore +140, Total: 8

      The Yankees look to continue their dominance over the AL East-leading Orioles when the teams wrap up a two-game set in Baltimore on Tuesday night.

      New York is 44-17 (.721) versus Baltimore since 2009, including a 22-9 mark (.710) at Camden Yards, winning all four road meetings this season. CC Sabathia and Wei Yin Chen take the mound in this game, each having seen the other team already this season. Chen gave up four runs in 5.2 innings to the Yankees, although only two of the runs were earned. Sabathia had a similar outing, giving up four earned on eight hits in six innings, striking out eight. While Chen is having a stellar season with a 3-0 record and a 2.68 ERA, Sabathia is as well with a 5-0 mark and 3.51 ERA. Sabathia’s peripherals are also much stronger with a 5.3 K:BB ratio, compared to Chen’s at 2.3. Furthermore, Sabathia’s career numbers against the Orioles are incredible—in 23 career starts, he is 16-2 with a 2.86 ERA and .231 opponents’ BA. The Yankees, who have won six of their past eight games, should be in good shape to make up more ground in the AL East behind the 6-foot-7 left-hander. Take NEW YORK to win another game in this series.

      This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Yankees:

      Play On - Any team (NY YANKEES) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a very good starter (ERA<=3.50) (AL), with an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season. (88-51 since 1997.) (63.3%, +41 units. Rating = 3*).

      The Yankees should be able to get to Chen again in this one. They are averaging 5.7 runs per game off lefty starters, hitting .288 with a .360 OBP. And with Sabathia’s ability to go deep into games (24 IP, 4 ER over past three starts) and his success against the Orioles in the past, the Yankees pitching should be set, solidified by one of baseball’s best bullpens. The New York relievers have a 2.61 ERA and 9.54 K’s/9 on the season and a 5-2 record. Supported by an offense that ranks in the majors’ top five in runs (5.0), batting average (275), on-base percentage (.345) and slugging percentage (.468), this game is laid out for the Yankees to win. Take the road favorites.

      Chen, like Sabathia, is supported by one of baseball’s best bullpens. Baltimore relievers have a 2.28 ERA and 1.14 WHIP on the season, although those marks are much worse at Camden Yards (3.50 ERA, 1.31 WHIP). The bullpen has given up 12 home runs on the season, 11 of which came in home games. Furthermore, Baltimore has been struggling against southpaws this season, hitting just .230 against them. After winning their first five games in May, the Orioles have cooled down with a 3-5 record since then. Maybe the luck has run out early on this surprisingly strong starting Baltimore team, play against them in this one.
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #4
        MLB
        Armadillo's Write-Up

        Tuesday, May 15

        Hot pitchers
        -- Strasburg is 3-0, 0.84 in seven starts this season.
        -- Lee has a 2.17 RA in four starts, but no wins (0-1).
        -- Maholm is 4-0, 1.07 in his last four starts. Lohse is 5-1, 2.49 in seven starts this season.
        -- Greinke is 2-0, 2.51 in his last five starts.
        -- Cueto is 3-0, 0.99 in his last five starts.
        -- Lincecum is 2-1, 3.52 in his last four starts.

        -- Lowe is 3-0, 1.75 in his last four starts.
        -- Peavy is 4-1, 1.55 in his last six starts. Scherzer is 1-1, 3.00 in his last three starts.
        -- ESantana has a 2.82 RA in his last three starts.
        -- Price is 4-1, 2.50 in his last five starts. Alvarez is 3-1, 1.55 in his last four starts.
        -- Sabathia is 5-0, 2.97 in his last five starts. WChen is 2-0, 2.77 in his last four starts.
        -- Mendoza is 2-0, 2.94 in his last three appearances.

        Cold pitchers
        -- Bass is 0-2, 5.95 in his last three starts.
        -- Lyles is 1-1, 7.72 in his last three starts.
        -- Gee is 1-1, 6.04 in his last four starts.
        -- Correia is 0-3, 5.40 in his last three starts. JJohnson is 0-1, 7.80 in his last three outings.
        -- Hudson is 1-1, 5.00 in three starts this season.
        -- Billingsley is 0-2, 7.08 in his last four starts. Miley is 0-1, 5.40 in his last couple starts.
        -- Guthrie is 1-1, 6.75 in his last three starts.

        -- Marquis is 2-2, 6.59 in five starts this season.
        -- Beckett is 1-3, 6.14 in his last four starts. Beavan is 0-2, 5.40 in his last four starts.
        -- Colon is 0-2, 5.96 in his last four starts.
        -- Lewis is 0-2, 7.90 in his last couple starts.

        Hot teams
        -- Washington won four of its last five games.
        -- Mets won seven of their last nine games.
        -- Miami won 10 of its last 13 games. Pirates are 7-4 in their last 11.
        -- Atlanta won four of its last six games. Reds won eight of their last 11 road games.
        -- Dodgers won nine of their last ten home games.
        -- Giants won their last three games, allowing seven runs.

        -- Blue Jays won four of their last six home games.
        -- Red Sox won their last four games, scoring 29 runs.
        -- Bronx won six of its last eight games. Orioles are 8-6 in their last 14 home games.
        -- Royals are 11-6 in their last seventeen games. Texas is 4-0 in the game following their last four losses.
        -- Oakland won five of its last six road games.

        Cold teams
        -- Padres are 3-10 on the road this season.
        -- Phillies are 4-6 in their last ten games. Astros are 4-11 in their last 15 away games.
        -- Brewers lost five of their last six road games.
        -- Cubs are 5-10 in their last fifteen road games. St Louis lost its last four games, allowing 29 runs.
        -- Arizona lost seven of its last nine games.
        -- Rockies lost nine of their last ten games.

        -- Rays lost six of their last nine games.
        -- Mariners lost nine of their last ten road games.
        -- Indians lost five of their last seven games. Minnesota lost 16 of its last 21 games.
        -- Detroit lost six of its last nine games. White Sox lost 11 of their last 16 home games.
        -- Angels lost three of their last four games.

        Totals
        -- Five of last six Washington home games went over.
        -- Seven of Phillies' last ten games went over the total.
        -- Six of last seven games at Citi Field stayed under total.
        -- Four of last five Pittsburgh road games went over the total.
        -- Three of last four Atlanta games went over the total.
        -- Cubs' last four games all went over the total.
        -- Four of last five Arizona road games stayed under total.
        -- Giants' last six home games all stayed under the total.

        -- Under is 6-1-2 in last nine Tampa Bay road games.
        -- Under is 8-2-1 in last ten Bronx games.
        -- Eight of last eleven Boston games went over the total.
        -- Under is 12-5 in Texas home games this season.
        -- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Cleveland road games.
        -- Over is 5-2 in White Sox' last seven home games.
        -- Seven of last nine Angel home games stayed under.

        Umpires
        -- SD-Wsh-- Five of last six Gorman games went over the total.
        -- Hst-Phil-- Underdogs are 6-3 in Davidson games this season.
        -- Chi-StL-- Favorites won five of last six Rapuano games.
        -- Mil-NY-- Five of last six Darling games went over the total.
        -- Pitt-Mia-- Home side is 20-8 in last 28 Muchinski games.
        -- Cin-Atl-- Five of last six Fletcher games went over the total.
        -- Az-LA-- Visiting team won four of last five McClelland games.
        -- Col-SF-- Visiting team won last five Nauert games (dogs 4-1).

        -- Clev-Min-- Underdogs won six of last seven Hoye games.
        -- Det-Chi-- Four of last five Gibson games stayed under total.
        -- Sea-Bos-- Six of eight Kellogg games stayed under the total.
        -- A's-LA-- Three of last four Marquez games went over total.
        -- TB-Tex-- Favorites won six of seven Miller games.
        -- NY-Balt-- Last four Barksdale games went over the total.
        -- KC-Tex-- Four of last five Schrieber games went over the total.
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #5
          MLB Evening Best Bets !


          NY Yankees - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore +139 500
          Baltimore - Over 8.5 500

          Oakland - 7:05 PM ET Oakland +151 500
          LA Angels - Under 7.5 500

          Tampa Bay - 7:07 PM ET Tampa Bay -118 500
          Toronto - Over 7.5 500

          Cincinnati - 7:10 PM ET Cincinnati +104 500
          Atlanta - Over 7 500

          Pittsburgh - 7:10 PM ET Pittsburgh +169 500
          Miami - Under 7 500

          Milwaukee - 7:10 PM ET NY Mets +123 500
          NY Mets - Over 7 500

          Kansas City - 8:05 PM ET Kansas City +219 500
          Texas - Over 10 500

          Arizona - 10:10 PM ET LA Dodgers -108 500
          LA Dodgers - Over 6 500

          Colorado - 10:15 PM ET San Francisco -157 500
          San Francisco - Over 6.5 500
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment

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