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**StarDust Bum** · 05-14-2012, 03:04 PM

Diamond Trends - Monday

May 14, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Diamondbacks are 10-0 since June 21, 2011 as a road dog and it is the first game of the series after playing in a day game for a net profit of $1253.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Angels are 0-15-3 OU since April 12, 2011 as a favorite after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $1500 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Rangers are 0-8 since September 29, 2009 when Scott Feldman starts after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start for a net profit of $945 when playing against.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

The Dodgers are 12-1 (3.8 rpg) since 2011 as a favorite after a 5+ run win.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Tigers are 15-0 since June 04, 2011 when playing a night game as a road favorite vs a divisional foe that is behind them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $1500

The Dodgers are 11-0 since May 29, 2011 when Clayton Kershaw starts at home after more strike outs than hits allowed for a net profit of $1100

**StarDust Bum** · 05-14-2012, 03:06 PM

Hot and Not

May 14, 2012

Warmer weather is right around the corner as the 2012 MLB regular season heads into the third week of May which marks the beginning of Interleague play. Here’s a look at what some of the hottest and coldest teams did on the diamond this past week.
Money Makers

Kansas City Royals (4-2, $312): Slowly but surely, the Royals are starting to win some games and play like the up and coming team many expected them to be at the outset of the 2012 season. Though Eric Hosmer and his mates dropped each series opener against both the Red and White Sox last week, they went on to win each of the next two games to head into the upcoming week 2-0-1 in their last three series played. Unfortunately, manager Ned Yost must deal with injuries within his starting rotation with lefty Jonathan Sanchez having already been placed on the 15-day DL and Danny Duffy most likely to join him after getting an MRI on his throwing elbow on Monday.

On The Docket: The schedule starts off very unkind with a pair of mini-series set to go in Arlington against the red-hot Texas Rangers before returning home to host the AL East leading Baltimore Orioles. They might get a reprieve through the weekend at home in interleague action against the struggling Diamondbacks.

Los Angeles Dodgers (5-1, $299): The Dodgers took advantage of the Rockies putrid pitching and the Giants pathetic excuse for an offense this past week winning five of the team’s six divisional match-ups. Manager Don Mattingly’s outfit is now the lone team within the NL West that sports a record above .500 they’re currently six-games ahead of the Giants atop the standings. Not all is good in La La Land however with potential NL MVP Matt Kemp’s hamstring giving him problems. He’s scheduled for an MRI on Monday, and considering he’s done most of the offensive damage for LA on the young season, his departure from the starting line-up could be crippling.

On The Docket: The Dodgers continue with divisional play to start the week with two games scheduled against both Arizona and San Diego before welcoming in St. Louis for three in the only non-interleague match-up of the weekend.

Atlanta Braves (4-2, $278): The Braves started off last week by dropping two of three against a resurgent Cubs outfit at Wrigley, but manager Fredi Gonzalez’s squad bounced back in a big way by handing the St. Louis Cardinals three straight home defeats as nice sized underdogs. In doing so, Atlanta became the fourth best bet in baseball with a seasonal return just under $690! The offense is starting to take on the persona of a “Murderers Row” with Michael Bourn (.399 OBP) and Martin Prado (.363 OBP) setting the table routinely for Freddie Freeman and the rest of the Braves sluggers to knock them in. If only the starting staff would shape up!

On The Docket: The Braves will play two with both the Cincinnati Reds and division rival Miami Marlins before heading to Tropicana Field to battle the Tampa Bay Rays in Interleague play. Atlanta’s 8-2 its L/10 versus AL East opposition.

Money Burners

Cleveland Indians (3-5, -$208): It was a brutal week for the Tribe who started it off by sweeping a double-header from the division rival White Sox on Monday before dropping the next two to fall to 8-10 (-$230) as a host on the year. After taking the opener at Fenway, they proceeded to lose each of the next three against a Red Sox outfit that was scuffling mightily themselves entering the series. Though they’re the current leaders atop the AL Central and the only team in that division that’s turned a profit on the year, the pitching staff (4.39 ERA) needs to establish itself so as to take some pressure off the offense.

On The Docket: If ever the pitching was going to turn it around it would be this week with four-games set to go against the weak hitting Twins and Mariners before hosting Miami in Interleague play.

Colorado Rockies (2-4, -$273): You know it’s bad when you can’t even win a series against a Padres squad that possessed just one series win heading into the team’s first showdown at Petco Park last Monday night. After dropping two of three there, the Rockies were swept in Chavez Ravine and got outscored by the aggregate score of 20-9. Manager Jim Tracy has gotten just 12 quality starts from his staff, and the unit’s 5.10 ERA is the worst mark in the NL and would be the worst mark in the league if not for the Minnesota Twins. When you seemingly can’t prohibit the opposition from getting on base, you don’t stand a chance in this league!

On The Docket: Luckily for the Rox pitching staff, it’ll run up against the offensively challenged Giants to start the week and follow that two-game mini-series up with a pair at home against the D’Backs before hosting Seattle in Interleague play.

Arizona Diamondbacks (1-5, -$430): Speaking of Arizona, what the heck is going down in the desert? Manager Kirk Gibson’s club looks to be a shell of its former self. Justin Upton’s batting .225 and has only gone yard three times? Ian Kennedy’s allowed more hits than innings pitched? With this slow start, last season looks to have been an enormous overachievement for this franchise. Injuries have played a major role, so look to continue fading this club until the likes of Chris Young, Stephen Drew and Daniel Hudson return to the everyday roster.

On The Docket: It only gets worse for the Snakes this week with all seven games against the Dodgers, Rockies and Royals coming on the road. That said; the team has managed a profit splitting its 16 games as a visitor to date ($170), so a departure from the desert just might be what the doctor ordered.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-14-2012, 04:23 PM

MLB Betting Notes

May 14, 2012

Hamilton chasing History

We’ve been wowed a few times this season by certain individual play such as Matt Kemp’s red-hot start, Jared Weaver’s no-hitter, Joey Votto’s three home run day ending with a walk-off grand slam, and even to some extent, Bryce Harper’s splash into the game. But the tear that Josh Hamilton is on right now is absolutely insane.
His last week of play was so eye opening that only two other players in history have bettered the six-game stretch Hamilton had last week where he hit nine home runs with 15 RBIs. One of those games was a Roy Hobbs moment on Tuesday where he blasted four bombs with 8 RBIs at Baltimore.

Hamilton is now leading all of baseball, not just the American League, in the “Triple Crown” categories with a .402 average, 18 home runs and 44 RBIs. Those numbers make it hard to believe we still have half the month of May to go, let alone four more months of the season. It‘s still way too early to be talking about the “Triple Crown,” but the fact that only 13 players in baseball history have done it, and none since 1967, make it all the more exciting to discuss.

At the beginning of the season the LVH Super Book posted a bunch of player props for the 2012 season with the OVER-UNDER total on most home runs hit being 42.5 and the most RBI’s at 128.5. Hamilton’s individual home run number was posted at 25.5, which could go OVER by the end of the month at his current pace.

The reason for the low total was due to Hamilton being injury prone the last three seasons. Since playing in 156 games in 2008, he’s played a partial schedule over the next three years with 89, 133 and 121 games respectively.

Interleague Play Begins Friday

It’s that time of year again where NL and AL parks get fresh new visitors from the other league which is always a big attendance boost. This week we have a couple of territorial battles with the White Sox at Wrigley Field, Rangers at Houston and the first-place Orioles at second-place Nationals.

We also get a couple of World Series rematches from yesteryear with the Pirates playing at Detroit (1909), the Reds at Yankees (1975-76) and the Marlins at Cleveland (1997).

And perhaps the best on-going series of all-time in baseball, the Cardinals and Dodgers, are the two teams left out of interleague play this week due to the imbalanced teams in the NL. The two clubs have played 1,897 games against each other in their history with the Cardinals holding a slim 958-926 edge. The great Vin Scully called more than half of those games and since the games are in Los Angeles this weekend, it will be a treat to hear Scully reflect on the terrific history of the two franchises. Baltimore was able to hang on for another week in first-place, quieting some critics and helped their own cause by taking two of three from the Rays. Before playing the Nats this weekend, they’ll have to prove themselves again for two games against the Yankees and hope there’s no let down for a two-game set at Kansas City.

The Red Sox played well over the weekend taking three straight from the first-place Indians and have to be one of the streakiest teams in the league. It’s almost like you can bet the Red Sox based on what they did the day prior. They‘ve had losing streaks of three and five games twice each and win streaks of three games twice along with a five-game streak.

The best news for Boston is that they have finally found Kevin Youkilis’ bat and it’s being used by rookie Will Middlebrooks who has been posting Youkilis-type numbers (4 HR, 13 RBI, .356) since being called up two weeks ago.

The Red Sox were one of the favorites to win the World Series in the beginning of the year at 8/1, but are now 20/1. One the same note, the Orioles were 100/1 and have been dropped only to 60/1. The Yankees were 6/1 and now sit at 7/1.

The Angels are taking their time to show improvements, but they are slowly coming along and when Pujols hits consistently -- which should be very soon -- the Angels will be the contenders most of us expected. They still have to get to .500, but the signs are there.

You know things are getting better when a major streak begins or stops, such as Ervin Santana who had been shutout in five straight games before the Angels finally hit for him Wednesday and won. The Angels were like the Red Sox at 8/1 to begin the season, but are now holding steady at 14/1 for the last two weeks.

One of the most impressive, but overlooked, teams in baseball has been the Atlanta Braves. They don’t have the superstars we all want to see, but they just get the job done nightly with great pitching and surprising good, timely hitting. They took first place away from the Nationals on Sunday, thanks to Joey Votto, but through six weeks of the season they look like one of the best teams and the updated odds reflect it with them dropping from 15/1 down to 10/1.

Part of the reason for the odds dropping on the Braves is because of the Phillies falling fast. When the Phillies lose four straight Roy Halladay starts, it’s time to start panicking. Once a preseason favorite to win the World Series at 5/1, now they’re 12/1. You know the pitching is going to be there, but it’s got to be disheartening for a starting pitcher to give all he’s got and lose 2-1 on a consistent basis.

The Phillies shouldn’t be waiting around until July to make a move to get some offensive firepower and they can begin with first-base. Ty Wigginton is a fine role player, but not as the everyday anchor to the lineup. The Angels could be sold on a trade for Mark Trumbo for some relief pitching help and he would definitely help the offense until Ryan Howard and Chase Utley come back, whenever that is.

Harper Props

I love the way Lucky’s Sports Books is always on top of things ready to capitalize on the popularity of hot topic and satisfy the public’s thirst for action on it. The latest one is a few props centered around rookie Bryce Harper. They have offered totals on his hits (80.5), doubles (28.5) and batting average (.240). The one stipulation is that Harper must play at least 100 games this season. Harper is currently batting .231 with no home runs and six doubles.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-14-2012, 04:28 PM

Dempster looks to add to Cards struggles Monday

CHICAGO CUBS (14-20)

at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (20-14)

First pitch: Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
Line: St. Louis -165, Chicago +155, Total: 7

The Chicago Cubs will look to make up some ground in the NL Central by taking on the division leading Cardinals in St. Louis in the opener of a short two-game series Monday night.

The Cardinals come into this game cold, having been swept by the Braves in a three-game set over the weekend. It does not help them getting to face Ryan Dempster, who despite being 0-1 on the season is off to an incredible start. Dempster currently sports a miniscule 1.02 ERA and 0.85 WHIP, with opponents hitting just .164 against him. And, even though he had a DL stint at the end of April, he has shown no signs of slowing down with 15 innings in his two starts since then, allowing just one run. At 4-2, Jake Westbrook is also off to a strong start, fashioning a 1.76 ERA, and even tamed the Cubs in an early-season start for a win. But Dempster has far more skill striking out batters, something that could be key in this game, and deserves the play given the overwhelming odds in favor of the Cardinals. Take CHICAGO to tame the potent St. Louis offense as underdogs.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Cubs:

Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CHICAGO CUBS) - team with a terrible OBP (<=.300) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP<=1.250) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start. (49-31 since 1997.) (61.2%, +36.6 units. Rating = 3*).

Dempster’s absurd start begins with his ability to fan hitters, registering 36 strikeouts in 35.1 innings. Although his career numbers against St. Louis are mediocre with a 4.52 career ERA in 47 games (21 of which were starts), he has not seen them this year when he is putting together a career season. Additionally, pitching on the road has been no problem for him—he has yet to give up an earned run in two starts (14 IP) away from home so far this season. The Cubs have provided Dempster with an average of 1.8 runs per start this season, explaining why he does not have a victory. He is due for some run support finally, so play on him as the heavy underdog.

Like Dempster, Westbrook is off to a stellar start, and is coming off tossing seven shutout innings with 8 K in his last time out in Arizona. But he has mediocre career numbers against the Cubs. In six career starts, he has a 4.54 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Unlike Dempster, he has been the beneficiary of incredible run support, with the Cardinals scoring double-digit runs twice so far. The Cardinals sport one of baseball’s best offenses, leading the league in OBP and ranking in the top-three in runs, batting average and slugging percentage. But given the heavy lines expecting his strong run support to continue, avoid betting on the Cardinals.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-14-2012, 04:38 PM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, May 14

Hot pitchers
-- Detwiler has a 2.59 RA in his last four starts.
-- Blanton is 2-0, 2.35 in his last three starts.
-- ASanchez is 1-0, 2.25 in his last four starts.
-- Delgado has a 1.98 RA in his last couple starts.
-- Westbrook is 4-2, 2.20 in six starts. Dempster has a 1.53 RA in five starts, but Cubs lost all five games, scoring a total of eight runs.
-- Kershaw is 1-1, 2.86 in his four home starts. Kennedy is 1-1, 1.86 in his three road starts.
-- Friedrich allowed two runs on five hits in six IP in his MLB debut. Vogelsong has a 3.21 RA in six starts this season.

-- Morrow is 4-0, 0.65 in his last four starts. Niemann is 2-1, 3.42 in his last four starts.
-- Hammel is 4-1, 2.09 in six starts this season.
-- Vargas has a 1.77 RA in his last three starts.
-- Smyly is 1-0, 1.85 in six starts this season.

Cold pitchers
-- Stauffer is 23-31, 3.92 in 69 big league starts; he allowed three runs in 15 IP in rehab this year. This is his first MLB start this year.
-- Harrell is 1-2, 7.48 in his last four starts.
-- Gallardo is 1-2, 8.36 in his last three starts. Batista is 0-1, 10.00 in his two starts this season.
-- Lincoln is 5-7, 5.10 in 17 big league starts; this year, he allowed two runs in 14 IP in seven relief stints.
-- Bailey is 1-3, 5.97 in six starts this season.

-- Nova is 1-1, 6.27 in his last three starts.
-- Lester has an 11.25 RA in his two home starts.
-- BChen is 1-4, 6.00 in his last five starts. Feldman allowed two runs in 3.1 IP (62 PT) in his only start this season. He is 33-33, 4.75 in his 81 career starts.
-- Gomez is 1-2, 5.95 in his last three starts. Pavano is 1-2, 6.04 in his last four outings.
-- Danks is 1-2, 7.01 in his last four starts.
-- Ross is 0-3, 13.15 in his last three starts. Haren is 0-2, 8.44 in his last two outings.

Hot teams
-- Washington won three of its last four games.
-- Mets won six of their last eight games.
-- Miami won 10 of its last 12 gamea. Pirates are 6-4 in their last ten.
-- Atlanta won four of its last five games. Reds won seven of their last ten road games.
-- Dodgers won eight of their last nine home games.
-- Giants won their last two games, allowing five runs.

-- Blue Jays won four of their last five home games.
-- Bronx won five of its last seven games. Orioles are 8-5 in their last 13 home games.
-- Royals are 10-6 in their last sixteen games. Texas won five of its last seven games.
-- Tigers are 9-5 in their last fourteen road games.
-- Angels won seven of their last ten home games. Oakland won four of its last five road games.

Cold teams
-- Padres are 3-9 on the road this season.
-- Phillies lost six of their last nine games. Astros are 4-10 in their last 14 away games.
-- Brewers lost four of their last five road games.
-- Cubs are 4-10 in their last fourteen road games. St Louis lost its last three games, allowing 23 runs.
-- Arizona lost six of its last eight games.
-- Rockies lost eight of their last nine games.

-- Rays lost six of their last eight games.
-- Mariners lost eight of their last nine road games. Boston lost nine of its last twelve games.
-- Indians lost five of their last six games. Minnesota lost 15 of its last 20 games.
-- White Sox lost 11 of their last 15 home games.

Totals
-- Four of last five Washington home games went over.
-- Seven of Phillies' last nine games went over the total.
-- Five of last six games at Citi Field stayed under total.
-- Last four Pittsburgh road games went over the total.
-- Last three Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Cubs' last three games all went over the total.
-- Three of last four Dodger game went over the total.
-- Giants' last five home games all stayed under the total.

-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Tampa Bay road games.
-- Under is 8-1-1 in last ten Bronx games.
-- Eight of last ten Boston games went over the total.
-- Under is 11-5 in Texas home games this season.
-- Six of last seven Cleveland road games went over the total.
-- Six of last nine Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Angel home games stayed under.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-14-2012, 04:49 PM

Monday, May 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount

NY Yankees - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore +105 500
Baltimore - Under 9 500

Houston - 7:05 PM ET Houston +155 500
Philadelphia - Over 8.5 500

San Diego - 7:05 PM ET Washington -155 500
Washington - Under 7 500

Chi. Cubs - 7:05 PM ET Chi. Cubs +146 500
St. Louis - Over 7.5 500

Tampa Bay - 7:07 PM ET Tampa Bay +135 500
Toronto - Over 8 500

Seattle - 7:10 PM ET Seattle +170 500
Boston - Over 9 500

Cincinnati - 7:10 PM ET Atlanta -134 500
Atlanta - Over 8.5 500

Pittsburgh - 7:10 PM ET Miami -191 500
Miami - Under 7 500

Milwaukee - 7:10 PM ET NY Mets +138 500
NY Mets - Over 8.5 500

Kansas City - 8:05 PM ET Texas -178 500
Texas - Under 10 500

Detroit - 8:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox +119 500
Chi. White Sox - Over 8 500

Cleveland - 8:10 PM ET Cleveland -120 500
Minnesota - Over 9 500

Oakland - 10:05 PM ET Oakland +188 500
LA Angels - Over 7 500

Arizona - 10:10 PM ET Arizona +140 500
LA Dodgers - Over 6 500

Colorado - 10:15 PM ET San Francisco -112 500
San Francisco - Under 7

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