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  • The Bum's Saturday's MLB Best Bets !

    Braves, Cards Slug It Out In St. Louis

    Those folks over at ESPN got all giddy this week after the New York Mets swept the Philadelphia Phillies on their own diamond. It was a most bodacious accomplishment, to be sure, but we're still talking about a Mets team that was broomed by the Houston Astros a week ago, and the Phils clearly aren't the team we all thought they should be at this point.

    Meanwhile, the Miami Marlins have quietly turned around a poor April when they went 8-14 and closed the schedule's first month with eight setbacks in nine games. Ozzie Guillen's club also struggled on the highway to get the 2012 campaign started, winning just twice away from home in the initial 11 tries. The Marlins come home this weekend off a huge road trip during which they won eight of nine while traveling through San Francisco, San Diego and Houston.

    The Mets and Marlins are both chasing the Washington Nationals in the NL East as they open a weekend set at the new Fish Tank in Miami on Friday. The series opener had two veteran left-handers on the hill with Mark Buehrle listed as a $1.20 favorite at home vs. Johan Santana. A 7-run total could also be found on the Don Best odds screen, and results were still pending.

    Saturday's second game will see the mound duel turn around to the right side for a 1:05 p.m. (ET) start. New York is slated to send knuckler RA Dickey to the mound with Miami trotting Ricky Nolasco out for his turn in the order.

    The Marlins will be looking to get even with the Mets after New York swept three from the Fish at Citi Field a little more than two weeks ago. All three contests finished 'under' the scoreboard hurdles (7-7½), with the hosts winning twice as underdogs. A New York win on Friday would match their longest win streak against the Marlins (6 games), and the Mets enter the weekend having won nine of the last 11 from Miami.

    Dickey has three of the nine wins in that stretch after taking down Miami on April 25 in New York as a +125 'dog vs. Buehrle. Except for one pounding he took in Atlanta on April 18, Dickey has been about as consistent a pitcher as manager Terry Collins could ask for. Dickey's five quality starts top the New York charts, and he takes the mound with the Mets 4-2 in his outings (+2.8 units) and the 'under' also 4-2.

    Nolasco has been even more profitable for bettors with Miami 5-1 in his six assignments (+4.8 units) and the 'over' cashing four times. He pitched well enough to win in New York back in April – 7 IP, 1 ER, no-decision in a 3-2 loss – but received no support from his lineup. Miami has dropped Nolasco's last three starts vs. New York despite the right-hander owning a 3.04 ERA in those contests.

    The clubs are set to close the series with a Sunday matinee that currently lists Jonathan Niese as New York's starter and Carlos Zambrano for the Marlins.

    Heavyweights Slug It Out In St. Louis
    Seriously, did you see this sort of start for the St. Louis Cardinals this year? I didn't, and I can't help but think Redbird Nation is mildly shocked even given the expectations most St. Louis fans have year in, year out.

    The Cardinals will continue a series Saturday with another team that has exceeded my expectations in a 7:15 p.m. (ET) collision with the Atlanta Braves. These are the top scoring squads in the NL, and among the majors' top 5, and it will be up to Brandon Beachy for the Braves and the Cards' Adam Wainwright to keep the two offenses at bay.

    Friday's series opener was still pending at press, and featured a pair of southpaws in Atlanta's Mike Minor and St. Louis' Jaime Garcia. The Cards were priced at -140 for that contest with an 8-run total.

    Unlike their AL brothers in Boston, last September's swoon has not carried over into this season for the Braves. In fact, the offense that went limp with injuries last September has vastly improved with Atlanta's scoring up more than a run per game from 2011's 3.96 mark. But even with a 5.19 RPG clip entering the series, the Braves are nearly a half-run behind St. Louis' 5.61 average. So much for missing Albert Pujols, huh?

    Beachy has gotten off to an outstanding campaign following up on his 2011 rookie season that ended with the Braves dropping each of his five September outings. The right-hander out of Indiana Wesleyan has strung together five straight quality starts, and he's been impressive away from home with Atlanta 3-1 in his road assignments and Beachy's highway ERA at 1.80.

    Wainwright, of course, is trying to get back into form after missing 2011 due to elbow surgery. His control has been fine (34:7 K/BB ratio in 33+ IP) and the velocity is improving, but he's been a victim of seven long balls already in six starts. The Georgia native has beaten the Braves in each of his six career starts, and Wainwright is a perfect 3-0 in his assignments at Turner Field (2.57 ERA).

    St. Louis dominated this series the past two seasons, winning 11 of the 14 meetings and all seven at Busch III in 2010-11. The 'under' was 2-1 in St. Louis last year.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  • #2
    Cubs And Pirates Make MLB Betting Shade List

    As we move into mid-May and seek out those 'go-with' and 'go-against' sides that could make for a profitable run in the next few weeks, we are surprisingly drawn to the NL Central as we offer our next installment of 'fade' and 'shade' teams to watch in Major League Baseball.

    And when, we might ask, have we last been looking to shade the Chicago Cubs?

    We admit at the outset of the campaign to being more than a bit bearish on the Cubbies’ prospects as new team prexy Theo Epstein and new GM Jed Hoyer began to remake the roster. And, to be truthful, we still don’t expect Chicago to contend in the Central.

    But there have been a few rumblings over the past couple of weeks that suggest the Cubs are suddenly providing decent value. Manager Dale Sveum’s squad enters this weekend’s set at Milwaukee having won back-to-back series vs. powerful Dodgers and Braves sides. In April they also took two of three in a weekend set vs. the high-flying Cardinals.

    Starting pitching has been a key for the Cubs, with Ryan Dempster (NL-best 1.02 ERA and 0.85 WHIP), Matt Garza (lights-out in recent starts vs. the Phils and Cards when allowing only five hits over 14 IP in a pair of wins; season ERA 2.67 and WHIP 0.89), lefty Paul Maholm (only three earned runs and 15 hits allowed over 25 1/3 IP in his last four starts), and ex-Notre Dame football WR Jeff Samardzija (only 2 ER and 12 hits, plus 23 strikeouts over his last three starts encompassing 21 1/3 IP) all on fire in recent weeks.

    That solid pitching has also accounted for 13 ‘unders’ in the Cubs’ last 15 games entering this weekend’s set at Miller Park.

    Sveum still has issues with his bullpen, where both Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood have been mostly ineffective in the closer role, but no team has been getting the sort of starting pitcher the Cubs have offered in the past three weeks. Meanwhile, the offense has uncovered a new clutch hitter in 1B Bryan LaHair, batting .384 with eight homers heading into the Milwaukee series.

    Believe it or not, we’re also looking to shade the Pittsburgh Pirates in the next week or two.

    Despite scoring fewer than three runs per game, the Bucs have managed to hang close to .500 because of solid starting pitching. We also must note that the Pittsburgh schedule has hardly been filled with cupcakes over the first five weeks of the season. A steady diet of Phillies, Dodgers, Cardinals, Braves and Nationals has made it difficult for Pittsburgh to forge a breakthrough.

    For the next four weeks, however, the slate eases up for Pittsburgh, and the solid Pirate pitching could begin to make a difference.

    Offseason additions A.J. Burnett (off an excellent eight innings of work in a midweek win over the Nats, allowing just six hits and two runs) and Erik Bedard (2.57 ERA) have added more depth to a rotation that continues to keep the Bucs within earshot every night. James McDonald, Kevin Correia and Charlie Morton round out a serviceable rotation that has posted a solid 3.40 ERA in the first five weeks of action.

    It would help Clint Hurdle’s team if the offense began to percolate, and to that end some improvement must be seen from 3B Pedro Alvarez, whose occasional flashes of power (seven homers) continued to be undermined by his propensity to strike out (30 Ks already). But CF Andrew McCutchen remains a quintessential table-setter, batting .330 and nearly at .400 with his OBP. Perhaps facing a steady diet of lesser rotations in the next month will spark a Bucs offensive surge.

    On the fade side this week, we’re taking a lead and beginning to look against the Baltimore Orioles, who have admittedly been one of the surprise packages of MLB in the first five weeks of the season. The O’s have been the best value in baseball on the Money Line thru May 10, standing +1030 units in their first 32 games.

    A recent five-game win streak vs. the Yankees and Red Sox (the latter swept at Fenway Park) has further fueled the optimism.

    There is a suspicion, however, that skipper Buck Showalter was doing it with mirrors in the first month, as the pitching staff has performed beyond the wildest expectations of even the Angelos family. But developments during the just-completed midweek set against Texas were alarming, as the Rangers (admittedly an offensive juggernaut) battered the Bird staff, which allowed 36 runs while losing three of four games in the just-completed series.

    Brian Matusz, who was shelled at midweek by the Rangers and owns a 5.91 ERA, continues to be a weak link in the rotation, and many AL scouts wonder when the rest of the league will begin to catch up to Taiwanese import Wei-Yin Chen, who has been admittedly impressive (2.68 ERA) in the early going. Ex-Rockie Jason Hammel (2.09 ERA) is also likely to come back to earth in a hurry, and many insiders suspect that only Jake Arrieta among the starters is likely to hold up into the summer months.

    Injuries are also starting to pile up, with key OF Nolan Reimold recently placed on the DL with a herniated disc in his neck, and the return date of 2B Brian Roberts rom post-concussion symptoms that have kept him out of action since the beginning of the season still unknown.

    Now that the Orioles are starting to become a “team du jour” among wagerers at the Las Vegas sports books, don’t be surprised for regression to the mean.

    Trust us, it’s happened before.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #3
      Around the Horn - Saturday

      May 11, 2012

      NATIONAL LEAGUE


      Chicago at Milwaukee - 1:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
      Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
      Volstad (0-4, 6.55 ERA) 13-19 2-8 L10 Game 2's
      Marcum (1-1, 3.41 ERA) 14-18 3-11 L14 during day

      Brewers beat Cubs, 8-7 on Friday

      N.Y. Mets at Miami - 1:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
      Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
      Dickey (4-1, 3.76 ERA) 18-14 5-2 L7 during day
      Nolasco (4-0, 2.72 ERA) 17-15 5-1 L6 home vs RHP

      Marlins beat Mets, 6-5 on Friday

      San Diego at Philadelphia - 7:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
      Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
      Volquez (1-2, 2.98 ERA) 11-22 3-7 L10 Game 2's
      Halladay (3-2, 3.28 ERA) 15-18 OVER 7-2 L9 home vs RHP

      Phillies beat Padres, 7-3 on Friday

      Houston at Pittsburgh - 7:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
      Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
      Happ (2-2, 5.24 ERA) 15-17 OVER 10-3 L13 away
      Morton (1-3, 4.61 ERA) 14-18 UNDER 6-2 L8 vs LHP

      Astros beat Pirates, 1-0 on Friday

      Washington at Cincinnati - 7:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
      Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
      Zimmermann (1-3, 2.29 ERA) 20-12 8-2 L10 Game 2's
      Latos (2-2, 4.93 ERA) 16-15 11-4 L15 vs RHP

      Nationals beat Reds, 7-3 on Friday

      Atlanta at St. Louis - 7:15 PM EST (Game 2/3)
      Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
      Beachy (3-1, 1.62 ERA) 20-13 8-1 L9 Game 2's
      Wainwright (2-3, 5.61 ERA) 20-12 7-3 L10 home vs RHP

      Braves beat Cardinals, 9-7 on Friday


      San Francisco at Arizona - 8:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
      Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
      Cain (1-2, 2.38 ERA) 15-17 4-8 L12 away vs RHP
      Cahill (2-3, 3.26 ERA) 15-18 0-9 L9 Game 2's

      Diamondbacks beat Giants, 5-1 on Friday

      Colorado at Los Angeles - 9:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
      Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
      Nicasio (2-1, 5.35 ERA) 13-18 OVER 7-4 L11 Game 2's
      Harang (1-2, 5.24 ERA) 21-11 7-2 L9 home vs RHP

      Dodgers beat Rockies, 7-3 on Friday

      AMERICAN LEAGUE


      Los Angeles at Texas - 1:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
      Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
      Williams (3-1, 3.38 ERA) 14-19 1-4 L5 away vs LHP
      Harrison (4-2, 5.11 ERA) 22-11 8-2 L10 Game 2's

      Rangers beat Angels, 10-3 on Friday

      Seattle at N.Y. Yankees - 4:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
      Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
      Noesi (2-3, 6.30 ERA) 15-19 UNDER 7-3 L10 Game 2's
      Hughes (2-4, 6.67 ERA) 18-14 1-4 L5 Saturdays

      Yankees beat Mariners, 6-2 on Friday

      Tampa Bay at Baltimore - 7:05 PM EST (Game 2/3)
      Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
      Moore (1-2, 5.71 ERA) 20-13 7-3 L10 Game 2's
      Matusz (1-4, 5.91 ERA) 21-12 OVER 5-0 L5 on Saturdays

      Orioles beat Rays, 4-3 on Friday

      Cleveland at Boston - 7:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
      Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
      Tomlin (1-2, 4.67 ERA) 18-14 6-3 L9 Game 3's
      Doubront (2-1, 5.01 ERA) 13-19 OVER 4-1 L5 on Saturdays

      Indians beat Red Sox, 8-3 on Thursday
      Red Sox beat Indians, 7-5 on Friday

      Kansas City at Chicago - 8:10 PM EST (Game 2/3)
      Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
      Hochevar (2-3, 9.00 ERA) 11-20 1-5 L6 vs LHP
      Stults (0-0, 3.00 ERA) 16-17 1-4 L5 Game 2's

      White Sox beat Royals, 5-0 on Friday

      Toronto at Minnesota - 7:10 PM EST (Game 3/4)
      Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
      Hutchison (1-1, 6.65 ERA) 18-15 UNDER 7-1 L8 away vs LHP
      Walters (NR) 9-23 2-7 L9 Game 3's

      Blue Jays beat Twins, 6-2 on Thursday
      Twins beat Blue Jays, 7-6 on Friday

      Detroit at Oakland - 8:10 PM EST (Game 3/4)
      Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
      Fister (0-0, 0.00 ERA) 16-16 UNDER 6-1 L7 Game 3's
      McCarthy (2-3, 2.96 ERA) 17-16 6-3 L9 Game 3's

      Tigers beat Athletics, 10-6 on Thursday
      Athletics beat Tigers, 11-4 on Friday
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #4
        MLB
        Armadillo's Write-Up

        Saturday, May 12

        Hot pitchers
        -- Marcum is 0-0, 2.08 in his two starts this month.
        -- Dickey is 2-0, 2.14 in his last three starts. Nolasco is 2-0, 1.69 in his last three outings.
        -- Volquez is 1-0, 1.40 in his last three starts. Halladay is 1-1, 2.57 in three home starts this season.
        -- Latos is 2-0, 2.33 in his last three starts.
        -- Beachy is 3-0, 1.85 in his last five starts. Wainwright is 2-0, 2.70 in his last three outings.
        -- Cain has a 1.60 RA in his last five starts. Cahill is 1-1, 2.51 in his last couple starts.
        -- Nicasio has 1.32 RA in his two road starts (8.10 in four road starts).

        -- Noesi is 1-1, 2.84 in his last couple starts.
        -- Fister hasn't allowed a run in 10.2 IP in his two starts. McCarthy did not make his last start (tired arm); he is 2-1, 2.18 in last three starts.

        Cold pitchers
        -- Volstad is 0-4, 5.73 in six starts this season.
        -- Happ is 1-2, 6.45 in his last four starts. Morton is 0-2, 9.58 in his last couple starts.
        -- Zimmerman is 0-2, 5.11 in his last couple starts.
        -- Harang is 1-2, 5.50 in six starts this season.

        -- Wilson will start again today after giving up four runs on 22 pitches in last night's rain-delayed game. Harrison is 2-2, 8.10 in his last four starts.
        -- Matusz is 0-2, 7.80 in his three home starts. Moore has a 6.75 RA in his last five outings.
        -- Hutchison is 1-1, 7.06 in his four starts this season. Walters is making his first '12 start; he's allowed 43 runs in 51 MLB IP. This is his fifth MLB start-- first four were for the Cardinals.
        -- Hochevar allowed 16 runs in 6.1 IP in his last two starts. Sale moved from starter to closer to starter, all this week; he is 3-1, 2.81 in his five starts this season. He blew his only save opportunity.
        -- Doubrant has a 7.16 RA in his last three starts. Tomlin is 0-1, 4.50 in his last three outings.

        Hot teams
        -- Marlins won nine of their last ten games. Mets won five of their last six games.
        -- St Louis won four of its last five games. Braves won seven of their last nine road games.
        -- Reds are 5-3 in their last eight games.
        -- Dodgers won six of their last seven home games.

        -- Bronx won four of its last five games. Mariners won four of six.
        -- Rangers won five of last seven games, scoring 46 runs in last five. Angels won four of their last six games.
        -- Orioles are 7-4 in their last eleven home games.
        -- Cleveland is 8-5 in its last thirteen games.
        -- Chicago won its last three games, allowing four runs. Royals are 8-6 in their last fourteen games.
        -- Detroit is 6-0 in game following its last six losses.

        Cold teams
        -- Pittsburgh lost its last two games, scoring two runs. Astros lost eight of their last twelve road games.
        -- Phillies lost five of their last seven games. San Diego is 2-8 on road.
        -- Nationals lost six of their last eight road games.
        -- Cubs lost nine of their last twelve road games. Brewers lost four of their last six games.
        -- Arizona lost five of its last six games. Giants lost seven of ten.
        -- Rockies lost six of their last seven games.

        -- Rays lost five of their last six games.
        -- Boston lost eight of its last ten games.
        -- Minnesota lost 14 of its last 18 games. Blue Jays lost four of their last six games.
        -- Oakland is 7-8 at home so far this season.

        Totals
        -- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Pittsburgh games.
        -- Phillies' last seven games went over the total.
        -- Over is 8-2-1 in Miami's last eleven home games.
        -- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Cincinnati games.
        -- Seven of Cubs' last nine games stayed under the total.
        -- Six of last eight Atlanta games stayed under total. Over is 10-3 in last thirteen Cardinal games.
        -- Seven of last eleven Arizona home games went over the total.
        -- Four of last six Colorado road games stayed under total.

        -- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Bronx games.
        -- Six of last eight Baltimore games went over total.
        -- Seven of last eight Boston games went over the total.
        -- Under is 11-2 in Angels' last thirteen road games.
        -- Over is 6-3-1 in last ten White Sox home games.
        -- Six of last eight Minnesota games stayed under total.
        -- Under is 9-5 in Detroit's road games this season.

        Umpires
        -- Chi-Mil-- Four of last five Culbreth game went over total.
        -- NY-Mia-- Home side won all six Randazzo games.
        -- SD-Phil-- Underdogs won four of last six Iassogna games.
        -- Hst-Pitt-- Visiting team won four of last five Joyce games.
        -- Wsh-Cin-- Underdogs won three of last five Cooper games.
        -- Atl-StL-- All six Bell games stayed under the total this year.
        -- SF-Az-- Five of six O'Nora games went over the total.
        -- Col-LA-- Favorites won last three Hernandez games.

        -- LA-Tex-- Last four Wendelstedt games stayed under total.
        -- Sea-NY-- Last three Conroy games stayed under total; underdogs are 3-1 in his games this season.
        -- TB-Blt-- Home side won last six Carapazza games, with five of six games going over the total.
        -- Tor-Min-- Last three Reyburn games stayed under the total.
        -- KC-Chi-- Four of last five Drake games went over the total.
        -- Cle-Bos-- Under is 3-1-1 in Porter games this season.
        -- Det-A's-- Five of last seven TWelke games stayed under.
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #5
          Saturday, May 12

          Game Score Status Pick Amount

          NY Mets - 1:05 PM ET Miami -131 500
          Miami - Under 7.5 500

          Chi. Cubs - 1:05 PM ET Chi. Cubs +173 500
          Milwaukee - Under 8 500

          LA Angels - 1:05 PM ET Texas -166 500
          Texas - Over 9.5 500

          Seattle - 4:05 PM ET Seattle +173 500
          NY Yankees - Under 10 500

          Tampa Bay - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore +112 500
          Baltimore - Over 9.5 500

          San Diego - 7:05 PM ET San Diego +190 500
          Philadelphia - Under 6.5 500

          Houston - 7:05 PM ET Pittsburgh -130 500
          Pittsburgh - Over 8 500

          Cleveland - 7:10 PM ET Cleveland +124 500
          Boston - Over 9.5 500

          Toronto - 7:10 PM ET Toronto -124 500
          Minnesota - Over 9.5 500

          Washington - 7:10 PM ET Cincinnati -121 500
          Cincinnati - Under 7.5 500

          Kansas City - 7:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox -115 500
          Chi. White Sox - Over 8 500

          Atlanta - 7:15 PM ET Atlanta +113 500
          St. Louis - Over 7.5 500

          Detroit - 8:05 PM ET Oakland +124 500
          Oakland - Over 7 500

          San Francisco - 8:10 PM ET San Francisco -101 500
          Arizona - Under 8 500

          Colorado - 9:10 PM ET Colorado +120 500
          LA Dodgers - Under 8 500
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment

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