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**StarDust Bum** · 05-11-2012, 07:20 PM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, May 11

Hot pitchers
-- McDonald is 2-0, 2.16 in his last four starts.
-- Worley is 2-1, 2.42 in his last four starts.
-- JSantana is 1-0, 1.83 in his last three starts.
-- GGonzalez is 3-1, 0.82 in his last five starts.
-- Garza is 2-1, 2.60 in his last four starts.
-- JGarcia is 1-1, 2.57 in his two home starts.
-- Bumgarner is 5-0, 1.54 in his last five starts.
-- Capuano is 4-0, 1.41 in his last five starts.

-- FHernandez is 2-1, 0.95 in his last five starts. Kuroda is 2-1, 3.26 in his three home starts (0-3, 5.94 on road).
-- Former Ranger Wilson is 2-0, 2.82 in his last three starts. Darvish is the guy Texas paid $100M to replace Wilson (3-1, 2.16 last five).
-- Paulino blanked Bronx for six innings in his first '12 start (won 5-1).
Floyd has a 1.71 RA in his last three starts.
-- Porcello is 2-0, 2.51 in his last couple starts. Milone is 2-0, 0.00 at home (16 IP at home; 2-2, 8.27 on road).

Cold pitchers
-- Norris is 1-1, 7.64 in three road starts.
-- Richard is 0-2, 9.82 in three road starts.
-- Buehrle is 1-1, 5.54 in two home starts.
-- Leake is 1-4, 6.91 in five starts this season.
-- Wolf is 1-2, 4.76 in three home starts.
-- Minor allowed 15 runs in 11.1 IP in his last two starts.
-- Corbin is 1-1, 7.00 in his first two big league starts.
-- Moyer is 1-2, 5.61 in six starts this season.

-- Hellickson has a 6.75 RA in his two road starts. Eveland has made 59 starts over seven years with six different teams (19-24, 5.52). This will be his 7th team-- he was 3-2, 2.21 in six starts in AAA this year.
-- Jimenez has a 7.47 RA in his three road starts. Buchholz has allowed 34 runs in 32.1 IP in his six starts this season; his WHIP is 2.02.
-- Drabek is 0-3, 4.76 in his last three starts. Blackburn is 0-4, 6.84 in his five starts this season.

Hot teams
-- Pirates are 9-2 in game following their last eleven losses.
-- Marlins won eight of their last nine games. Mets won their last five games, scoring 29 runs.
-- St Louis won its last four games, scoring 30 runs. Braves won six of their last eight road games.
-- Reds won five of their last seven games.
-- Cubs won three of their last four games.
-- Dodgers won five of their last six home games.

-- Bronx won three of its last four games. Mariners won four of five.
-- Rangers won four of last six games, scoring 36 runs in last four.
-- Cleveland won eight of its last twelve games.
-- Tampa Bay is 5-3 in its last eight road games.
-- Angels won four of their last five games.
-- Royals are 8-5 in their last thirteen games.
-- Blue Jays won six of their last nine games.

Cold teams
-- Astros lost eight of their last eleven road games.
-- Phillies lost five of their last six games. San Diego is 2-7 on the road.
-- Nationals lost six of their last seven road games.
-- Brewers lost four of their last five games.
-- Arizona lost its last five games, outscored 29-13. Giants lost six of their last nine games.
-- Rockies lost five of their last six games.

-- Orioles lost three of last four games, allowing 36 runs.
-- Boston lost eight of its last nine games.
-- White Sox lost six of their last nine games.
-- Minnesota lost 14 of its last 17 games.
-- Detroit is 0-7 in game following its last seven wins. Oakland is 6-8 at home so far this season.

Totals
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Pittsburgh games.
-- Phillies' last six games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-2-1 in Miami's last ten home games.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Cincinnati games.
-- Seven of Cubs' last eight games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Atlanta games stayed under total. Over is 9-3 in last twelve Cardinal games.
-- Seven of last ten Arizona home games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Colorado road games stayed under total.

-- Under is 6-0-1 in last seven Bronx games.
-- Six of last seven Baltimore games went over total.
-- Six of last seven Boston games went over the total.
-- Under is 10-2 in Angels' last dozen road games.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine White Sox home games.
-- Six of last seven Minnesota games stayed under total.
-- Under is 9-4 in Detroit's road games this season.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-11-2012, 07:25 PM

MLB
Short Sheet

Friday, May 11

National League

Houston at Pittsburgh, 7:05 ET
Norris: 0-10 TSR on Fridays
McDonald: Pittsburgh 10-1 Under after winning 2 of their last 3 games

San Diego at Philadelphia, 7:05 ET
Richard: 2-12 TSR vs. NL East opponents
Worley: 15-3 TSR in night games

NY Mets at Miami, 7:10 ET
Santana: 52-15 TSR pitching off BB team wins
Buehrle: Miami 3-11 SU at home off BB road games

Washington at Cincinnati, 7:10 ET
Gonzalez: Washington 10-1 SU off a win by 2 runs or less
Leake: Cincinnati 7-18 SU after allowing 1 or 0 runs

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee, 8:10 ET WGN
Garza: 2-10 TSR after allowing 0 ER's last start
Wolf: 22-8 TSR at home with a total of 7.5 runs or less

Atlanta at St. Louis, 8:15 ET MLB
Minor: Atlanta 7-2 SU after scoring 2 runs or less
Garcia: St. Louis 1-11 SU off 4+ wins

San Francisco at Arizona, 9:40 ET
Bumgarner: 16-3 TSR after BB starts allowing 1 or 0 walks
Corbin: Arizona 1-8 SU at home off a loss

Colorado at LA Dodgers, 10:10 ET
Moyer: Colorado 8-20 SU off a win by 4+ runs
Capuano: Dodgers 23-8 SU on Fridays

American League

Seattle at NY Yankees, 7:05 ET
Hernandez: Seattle 4-21 SU away vs. AL East opponents
Kuroda: 13-3 Over at home in night games

Tampa Bay at Baltimore, 7:05 ET
Hellickson: Tampa Bay 11-3 SU after the bullpen allowed 0 runs
Eveland: Baltimore 27-61 SU off a loss by 4+ runs

Cleveland at Boston, 7:10 ET
Jimenez: Cleveland 14-6 SU vs. right-handed starters
Buchholz: Boston 1-7 SU at home off BB losses

LA Angels at Texas, 8:05 ET MLB
Wilson: Angels 5-14 SU away off a win by 4+ runs
Darvish: Texas 20-6 SU at home with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs

Kansas City at Chicago White Sox, 8:10 ET
Paulino: Kansas City 1-11 SU away off BB wins
Floyd: 9-2 TSR off BB starts allowing 1 or 0 walks

Toronto at Minnesota, 8:10 ET
Drabek: Toronto 12-3 SU away on Fridays
Blackburn: Minnesota 4-15 SU at home off BB games scoring 2 runs or less

Detroit at Oakland, 10:05 ET
Porcello: Detroit 21-4 SU as a road favorite of -125 or higher
Milone: Oakland 15-5 Under vs. right-handed starters

**StarDust Bum** · 05-11-2012, 07:31 PM

Friday's MLB Tip Sheet

May 10, 2012

**Braves at Cardinals**

--As of early Thursday night, most books were listing St. Louis (20-11, +688) as a minus-150 home favorite for its series opener against Atlanta. The total was eight ‘over’ (minus-115). Gamblers can go the run-line route (minus 1 ½) with the Cardinals for a plus-140 payout (risk $100 to win $140).

--Atlanta (19-13, +286) comes to Busch Stadium for the final three contests of a nine-game road swing. The Braves lost two of three to the Cubs at Wrigley Field this week, but they swept the Rockies in the Mile High City this past weekend.

--St. Louis has won four in a row to take a 3 ½-game lead on second-place Cincinnati in the National League Central. The Cardinals captured a 7-2 win Wednesday at Arizona to complete a three-game sweep of the Diamondbacks. Rafael Furcal went 4-for-5 to improve his team-high batting average to .361. Also, David Freese had three hits and Allen Craig popped a two-run homer. Kyle Lohse worked five innings and gave up just one run en route to gathering his fifth victory of the year.

--Atlanta went into Thursday’s action (Washington at Pittsburgh) in a first-place tie with the Nationals for the lead in the NL East.

--Fredi Gonzalez will give the starting nod to 24-year-old Mike Minor, who is 2-2 with a 5.97 ERA. The left-hander got roughed up in his last outing, a 13-9 win at Colorado. The Rockies reached Minor for 10 hits and eight earned runs over five innings.

--Atlanta has won in four of Minor’s six starts. The ‘over’ is 4-2 in his six outings.

--St. Louis LHP Jaime Garcia (2-2, 3.76) will toe the rubber for the home squad. Garcia is looking to bounce back from his worst outing of the year when he walked four and gave up six earned runs in an 8-2 loss to Houston. Totals have been an overall wash (3-3) in his six assignments.

--St. Louis owns a stellar 6-1 record in seven games against southpaw starters. Meanwhile, Atlanta is 7-7 against lefties. The Cardinals are 8-4 at home, while the Braves are 11-8 on the road.

--St. Louis and Atlanta are the NL’s best hitting teams. The Cards are second in the majors with a .287 average, while the Braves are fifth (.265).

--The ‘under’ is 16-14-1 overall for the Cards, but they have seen the ‘over’ go 9-3 in their home games.

--The ‘over’ is 16-14-2 overall for the Braves, 10-8-1 in their road contests. The ‘under’ cashed in all three of their games against the Cubs this week.

--When the Braves visited St. Louis last year, they got a swept in a three-game set. The Cards won five of six head-to-head meetings in 2011.

--Garcia is scheduled to throw the first pitch at 8:15 p.m. Eastern.

**Tigers at A’s**

Stats for these teams do NOT include Thursday’s late-night result.

--Most spots have Detroit (15-15, -560) installed as a minus-115 ‘chalk’ for this second contest of a four-game series. The total is 7 ½ ‘under’ (minus-120). Bettors can take the Tigers on the run line for a plus-150 return (risk $100 to win $150).

--Oakland (16-15, +490) went into Thursday’s play in second place in the AL West, trailing the loop-leading Rangers by 4 ½ games. (Texas faced Baltimore in a twin bill Thursday). The A’s have won five of their last seven games.

--Jim Leyland will turn to RHP Rick Porcello (3-2, 4.91) on Friday night. The 23-year-old has been sharp his last two times out, working 14 1/3 innings while surrendering just four earned runs. Porcello has walked just two batters and fanned eight during this stretch.

--Detroit has prevailed in four of Porcello’s six assignments, while totals have been a wash (3-3) in those contests.

--Oakland will give the ball to LHP Tom Milone, who is 4-2 with a 4.42 ERA. The ‘under’ is 4-2 in those six games.

--Oakland is 7-8 at home, 9-11 against right-handed pitching. Meanwhile, Detroit is 6-6 on the road, 6-5 against southpaws.

--The ‘under’ is 19-11-1 overall for the A’s, 10-5 in their home games.

--Detroit has seen the ‘under’ go 17-12-1 overall, 9-3 in its road assignments.

--This game will come off the board at 10:05 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--A pair of lefties will square off Friday night in the series opener between the Mets and Marlins in Miami. Johan Santana (1-2, 2.61) will get the call for New York, while Mark Buehrle (2-4, 2.83) will take the hill for the Fish. The Mets, who swept a three-game set from the Marlins in Queens last month, have an 8-7 road record and a 6-8 ledger against southpaws. Miami is 6-5 in its new home stadium, 5-6 versus left-handers. Most books have the Marlins as minus-130 favorites.

--The biggest underdogs on Friday’s card are the Rockies (+155 at the Dodgers with Moyer going) and Padres (+155 at Philadelphia with Richard throwing).

--The Reds have the NL’s best bullpen with a 2.48 ERA.

--Going into Thursday’s doubleheader at Baltimore, Josh Hamilton was leading the majors in homers with 14 after cranking four in one game at Camden Yards earlier this week. He’s also tops in batting (.406) and RBIs with 36.

--Before Thursday’s game at Boston, Cleveland closer Chris Perez had an MLB-best 11 saves in 12 chances. Atlanta’s Craig Kimbrel has an NL-best 10 saves.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-11-2012, 07:33 PM

Diamond Trends - Friday

May 11, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Phillies are 12-0 since May 03, 2011 after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1242.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Indians are 11-0 OU since April 10, 2011 on the road vs a team that has lost at least their last three games for a net profit of $1100 when playing the over.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Mets are 0-9-1 OU since July 05, 2009 when Johan Santana starts on the road after facing 30 or more hitters for a net profit of $900 when playing the under.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

The Cardinals are 0-11 (-2.3 rpg) since 2011 when on a 4+ game winning streak, if one of their last two wins was by more than one run.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The White Sox are 0-9 OU since April 07, 2011 after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing the under.

The Mariners are 0-7 since April 16, 2011 when Felix Hernandez starts on the road after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $750 when playing against.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-11-2012, 07:36 PM

Series to Watch

May 10, 2012

New York Mets could face trouble against Miami Marlins
The New York Mets' fast start may be fool's gold and bettors may be able to take advantage when the team faces off with the Miami Marlins on Saturday, May 12th, 2012 at 1:05 p.m. ET.

The Mets have raced out to an 18-13 record through Wednesday's games, which is just a half-game behind the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves. However, New York has been outscored by 18 runs this season, which stands to reason that the Mets are playing above their expected record and could be coming back down to normal soon.

The Mets will likely be the underdogs in this game, and while it's only one game, the odds may be favorable to bet against them. New York lost leadoff hitter and star shortstop Jose Reyes to Miami in the offseason. The offense was expected to be a weakness but the Mets' 128 runs scored is actually second in the American League East behind the Braves.

David Wright is hitting .376 and leads the team with 18 RBIs and 20 runs scored, while the team has also gotten good production from Ruben Tejada and Daniel Murphy. Knuckleballer R.A. Dickey is scheduled to take the mound in this contest. He is 4-1 with a 3.76 ERA and gets the advantage of pitching in the cavernous Miami ballpark.

The Marlins were a fashionable pick to make the playoffs after the offseason acquisitions of Reyes, starter Mark Buerhle and closer Heath Bell. The team started slowly but is now a game over .500.

The offense has struggled, but the team's pitching has been a strength. Miami is third in the majors with a cumulative earned run average of 3.20 and leads the majors with 23 quality starts. Ricky Nolasco is expected to start on Saturday, and he has been very good this season with a 4-0 record and a 2.72 ERA. The Marlins have not reached their potential offensively yet and have room to grow. The Mets, meanwhile, are a limited offensive club and may have some trouble against Nolasco.

Betting against New York and under the run total are both decent options in order to capitalize on MLB baseball odds.

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Los Angeles Angels prep to face potent Texas Rangers, Yu Darvish

Before the Major League Baseball season began, conventional wisdom expected the American League West to be a battle between the Texas Rangers and the Los Angeles Angels.

Although the season is only a little more than a month old, the Angels have yet to live up to those lofty expectations while the Rangers have been everything and more expected of them.

A slow start has left the Angels in last place in the A.L. West looking up at the Rangers, but the team has played better lately and will look to make up a game when the teams face off on Saturday, May 12th, 2012 at the Ballpark in Arlington.

The Los Angeles Angels signed slugger Albert Pujols in the offseason, but he has struggled early on with only one home run and a batting average around .200. He has shown some signs of life lately and is expected to turn it on at some point. The Texas ballpark is a haven for hitters, and Pujols could have a big series. He is an essential part of the team and if he starts to hit like he is capable, the Angels' lineup becomes much more dangerous. Los Angeles is expected to start right-hander Jerome Williams, who has been solid this season with a 3-1 record and a 3.38 ERA. However, he will have to face the best lineup in the league in an extreme hitter's park, so it's a tough task.

The Texas Rangers had the best record in the American League after Wednesday's games because of the MLB's best offense. The Rangers are first in batting average, first in slugging percentage and first in runs in the league.

Josh Hamilton recently hit four home runs in one game and is looking like the best player in the league at this point. He is batting .406 with 14 home runs ad 36 RBIs on the season. He is surrounded by elite hitters like Ian Kinsler, Adrian Beltre, Mike Napoli, Michael Young, Nelson Cruz and others.

The Texas starting pitcher is slated to be Yu Darvish, the high-priced offseason acquisition. Darvish struggled in his debut but has been very good since, and has a record of 4-1 with a 2.54 ERA on the season.

The Rangers have been the best team in the American League thus far, but Los Angeles has won seven of its past 10 games and is starting to get hot.

The Angels can't afford to fall too far behind in the standings, but will be the underdogs in this contest because of the pitching matchups and since they are on the road in MLB baseball gambling.

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