The Bum's Thursday's MLB Best Bets !

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Diamond Trends - Thursday

May 10, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Pirates are 0-11 since April 19, 2011 when playing a night game as a 140+ dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Red Sox are 10-0 OU since April 08, 2011 as a home favorite after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $1000 when playing the over.


STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:


The Red Sox are 13-0 since July 07, 2009 when Josh Beckett starts as a home 140+ favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1300.


MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:


The Twins are 0-16 (-3.4 rpg) since May 10, 2011 at home after a loss and it is the first game of the series.


TODAY’S TRENDS:


The Yankees are 9-0 since April 17, 2011 when CC Sabathia starts vs a team that won their starters last two starts for a net profit of $900.

The Indians are 9-0-1 OU since May 28, 2011 as a dog after a 5+ run loss in a night game for a net profit of $900 when playing the over.

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Hot and Not

May 7, 2012

The 2012 MLB regular season heads into the second week of May with the warmer weather right around the corner. Here’s a look at what some of the hottest and cold teams did on the diamond this past week.
Money Makers

Baltimore Orioles (5-1, $607): You know things are running well for your ball club when one of your sluggers (Chris Davis) goes 0-for-8 with five strikeouts but comes in and tosses two innings of scoreless ball with two Ks to get the win. That’s exactly what happened in the O’s marathon win in Boston on Sunday, and it closed out a week that saw manager Buck Showalter’s squad go a lucrative 5-1 in its six-games played in the Bronx and Fenway. Baltimore is currently the best bet in the league reeling in a shade under $1500 for the year! This club has shown the ability to hit the long ball (41) and be able to handle its business in the late innings with the bullpen possessing the league’s best ERA (1.41).

On The Docket: After passing its litmus test at divisional opposition last week, it doesn’t get any easier for the Orioles who return home to battle Texas for four followed by a weekend set with Tampa Bay; the O’s have won eight of 12 as hosts to date ($412).

Miami Marlins (6-1, $473): Ozzie Guillen was 100 percent correct in stating that his squad needed to get away from Miami to regroup. After dropping its home finale with the D’backs to fall to six-games under .500, Miami hit the west coast to battle the Giants and Padres in pitcher friendly AT&T and Petco Parks. Save for Josh Johnson’s blow-up, Marlins pitching gave up a total of just 11 runs and Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, and Mark Buehrle all registered quality start victories. The demotion of Heath Bell as the team’s closer also helped matters. There’s simply too much talent on this team’s roster for it to continue underachieving.

On The Docket: The Fish close out their nine-game roady in Houston followed up with a home set against the division rival Mets where they’ll look to improve upon their mediocre 6-5 home record.

Cleveland Indians (4-2, $306): Manager Manny Acta’s Tribe bolted out to a great start last season only to falter down the stretch due to a myriad of injuries. While they’ve only gotten out to a 15-11 mark over the course of their first 26 games played, it’s a good enough record to sit atop the AL Central standings heading into the second week of May. Taking two of three at division rival Chicago was nice, but earning the home series win over the Rangers and holding them to a total of 10 runs was certainly the cherry on top of a solid week of work.

On The Docket: The Tribe has a loaded week ahead of them with four set to go vs. Chicago – including a doubleheader – before heading to Beantown to deal with a salty Red Sox outfit for four more.

Money Burners

Boston Red Sox (1-5, -$634): Just when you thought the BoSox had turned their season around by taking six of seven on the road, they returned home to Fenway and laid a huge egg in front of the hometown faithful. After pounding the A’s in the series opener 11-6, they went on to drop the next two and were then swept at home by the Baltimore Orioles for the first time since 1994. Pitching continues to ail Manager Bobby Valentine’s outfit as it checks in with a 5.36 ERA (#29), a 1.47 WHIP (#27), and has amassed just 12 quality starts (#25). Until that’s rectified, this club is going nowhere fast!

On The Docket: It’s back to the road for the Red Sox to start the week with three at Kansas City before returning home to host the Cleveland Indians for four; Boston’s won six of its L/7 vs. AL Central opposition.

Milwaukee Brewers (2-4, -$273): Even though Prince Fielder moved on for greener pastures this past off-season, Milwaukee was extremely confident in the roster it assembled to make up for his potent bat leaving its line-up. However, in a matter of just four days, the team’s starting first baseman (Mat Gamel), shortstop (Alex Gonzalez), and centerfielder (Carlos Gomez) have all been placed on the DL. Gamel is gone for the year with a torn ACL, while the others were put on the 15-day DL. Though this squad has been decimated due to injury, it wasn’t playing a solid brand of ball to begin with. It’s .228 batting average ranks 28th while its 4.88 team ERA ranks 27th – to make matters worse, the bullpen owns a 4.69 ERA and .276 BAA.

On The Docket: The Brew Crew will look to get healthy within the division this week at home against the Reds and Cubs; teams they’re 14-6 versus in the L/20 combined meetings.

Minnesota Twins (1-5, -$373): We stated last week that the Twins will more than likely be on this list more than any other team in the Bigs throughout the entirety of the 2012 season. Well, manager Ron Gardenhire’s squad didn’t disappoint this past week dropping five of six to the Angels and Mariners. Most disconcerting about the road trip was losing all three to a Halos squad that couldn’t hit its way out of a paper bag heading into the series. Still, LA’s pitching staff shut them out twice, including Jered Weaver’s perfect game - and outscored them 17-3 in the three-game set. King Felix almost tossed a no-no at them just two-days later! This club can’t hit and it’s pitching staff can’t get anyone out, so it should come as no surprise that they’re ranked amongst the worst in the league in both statistical categories.

On The Docket: The Twinkies return home to battle the Angels in a quick revenge series followed by four-games with Toronto; Joe Mauer and his mates have won just three of their 11 home games played to date (-$422).

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Lowe & Beckett Battle Thursday At Fenway Park

One Washington Nationals youngster was in the news earlier this week for being on the receiving end of a Cole 'Old School Expert At Age 28' Hamels purpose pitch. Another young Nats star hopes to be in the news Thursday for delivering a purposeful pitching performance.

Stephen Strasburg will take his turn in the Washington rotation when his club closes a 3-game set Thursday at the Pittsburgh Pirates. His opponent is Bucs righty Kevin Correia who will make the first heave at 7:05 p.m. (ET).

Pittsburgh drew first blood in the series Tuesday as Rod Barajas' 2-run, walk-off homer lifted the Pirates to a 5-4 victory as even-money underdogs on the Don Best odds screen. Game 2 found the Bucs listed as slight $1.10 favorites with a 7-run total on the board in the mound matchup between the Nats' Ross Detwiler and Pittsburgh's Erik Bedard.

Washington is 5-1 (+3.8 units) in Strasburg's assignments, and bettors will instinctively understand the 23-year-old is carrying some heavy chalk when they see those two stats. Strasburg has been a favorite in the 120s twice, splitting those two decisions; laying -140 or better, he's a perfect 4-0.

Strasburg finally served up his first gopher balls of the campaign when the Phillies took him deep twice last Friday in DC. Those were two of the three hits he allowed in six innings, and Strasburg enters Thursday's match with an excellent 38:7 K/BB ratio in 38 frames. This will be his first appearance vs. the Pirates since his major league debut against them in June 2010.

Correia is coming off consecutive losses after beginning the season with three straight quality starts. He's had some mild success the past three years vs. the Nats while hurling for both the Padres and Pirates, winning two of his three assignments with a 3.44 ERA (18-1/3 IP).

Thursday's Iron City forecast looks good with a few clouds and a little on the cool side (game-time temp in upper-50s). Phil Cuzzi is scheduled to have the plate for the series finale, and brings a 3-2 'over' mark into the contest.

Lowe Returns To Scene Of Prime, Faces Beckett In Boston
Derek Lowe saved 42 games for the Red Sox in 2000, then won 21 out of their rotation two years later. He'll pitch at Fenway Park for just the second time since leaving his old stompin' grounds after 2004 when the Cleveland Indians open a 4-game series in Boston on Thursday night. Just as when Lowe pitched here last, his counterpart will be Josh Beckett for the 7:10 p.m. (ET) start.

Both teams will be flying into Logan overnight after Wednesday games. The Tribe was finishing up a homestand vs. the White Sox in a pick 'em while the BoSox were completing a quick 3-game trip to Kansas City as $1.50 favorites.

Cleveland has quietly assumed the lead in the AL Central courtesy of an outstanding 9-3 road record. The Indians have won all four of their away series – at Kansas City, Seattle, Oakland and Chicago – and will be facing a Red Sox club that is just 4-10 in Boston and has dropped four of five home series.

The Indians are 4-2 (+2.1 units) in Lowe's six starts despite the veteran walking more than he has struck out (12-10) and hitters batting nearly .300 against him. Helping his cause is an incredible ground ball/fly ball ratio (85/53) and the Tribe turning 10 of its 33 double plays in Lowe's outings.

Beckett takes the mound after skipping one turn in the rotation due to a strained lat. He was rocked for five homers and seven runs in his season debut at Detroit, but has since righted the ship with the Sox splitting his four assignments following that debacle (2.92 ER, 27+ IP).

These two veteran hurlers met in a 2009 interleague contest at Fenway when Lowe was with the Braves. Beckett went the distance with a 5-hit shutout vs. Atlanta; Lowe worked 6-1/3 innings and surrendered all three Boston runs.

Quick trivia question: The Sox have faced 10 clubs at least 500 times over the years, and the only two they have losing records against are the Yankees (1,134-954) and who? That's right, the Indians. Cleveland is 1,021-958 all-time despite Boston starting to turn that around recently (53-43 since 2000). The Tribe won six of 10 battles in 2011, splitting the four at Fenway

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
05/09/12 13-*12-*3 52.00% +*895 Detail
05/08/12 10-*19-*1 34.48% -*5560 Detail
05/07/12 13-*13-*0 50.00% -*130 Detail
05/06/12 19-*9-*0 67.86% +*5040 Detail
05/05/12 6-*2-*0 75.00% +*1950 Detail
05/04/12 14-*13-*1 51.85% +*305 Detail
05/03/12 10-*8-*0 55.56% +*605 Detail
05/02/12 18-*12-*0 60.00% +*3735 Detail
05/01/12 3-*25-*0 10.71% -*13070 Detail
Totals 106-*113-*5 48.40% -*6230

Thursday, May 10

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Texas - 4:05 PM ET Baltimore +118 500
Baltimore - Over 9 500

Texas - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore +139 500
Baltimore - Over 9.5 500

Tampa Bay - 7:05 PM ET Tampa Bay +132 500
NY Yankees - Over 8 500

Washington - 7:05 PM ET Pittsburgh +148 500
Pittsburgh - Under 6.5 500

Cleveland - 7:10 PM ET Cleveland +138 500
Boston - Under 9 500

Toronto - 8:10 PM ET Minnesota +136 500
Minnesota - Over 8.5 500

Detroit - 10:05 PM ET Oakland +110 500
Oakland - Under 7 500