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**Udog** · 05-05-2012, 08:26 AM

Saturday's betting tips: Explosive Thunder going under

Weather to watch

A 14-mph wind will be blowing in from right when Cleveland hosts Texas on Saturday night. Skies will be partly cloudy, with a 20 percent chance of rain.

Who’s hot

NBA: The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven Pacers-Magic games.

NBA: The under is 4-1 in the Thunder’s last five road games.

NHL: The Rangers are 7-2 in their last nine road games.

MLB: San Francisco is 11-1 in Madison Bumgarner’s last 12 home starts.

MLB: The under is 18-7-2 in Felix Hernandez’s last 27 home starts for Seattle.

Who’s not

NBA: Utah is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. teams with winning road records.

NBA: The Clippers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games.

NHL: The over is 0-3-3 in the last six Rangers-Capitals games.

MLB: The White Sox are 2-6 in Gavin Floyd’s last eight starts.

MLB: San Diego is 0-8 in Clayton Richard’s last eight starts vs. NL East teams.

Key stat

40 – That’s the advantage San Antonio has had in the paint against Utah, outscoring the Jazz 120-80 in an area that was supposed to be Utah’s strength. The Spurs lead the series 2-0, with Game 3 Saturday night. San Antonio is set as a 5.5-point favorite.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Clippers veteran guard Mo Williams, who left Game 2 with a forearm contusion, said he expects to play in Saturday’s Game 3 in Los Angeles. He had nine points in the series opener, then 11 points and four assists in 21 minutes of Game 2. For the season, he averaged 13.2 points and 3.1 assists.

Games of the day

Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Clippers (-3, 187.5)

New York Rangers at Washington Capitals (-115, 5)

Notable quotable

“If we continue playing like we did, creating offense, blocking shots, you know, playing good, patient hockey, we’ll be successful.” – Capitals winger Troy Brouwer, on his team’s 2-1 series deficit heading into Saturday’s Game 4.

Notes and tips

It’s fair to wonder how much juice Rangers defenseman Ryan McDonagh will have for Saturday’s Game 4 after he logged an incredible 53:17 of ice time in Game 3. McDonagh blocked eight shots in New York’s triple-OT win. "It's not really exhaustion when you win the game," he said. "You feel like all the effort paid off and that's the only way to put it."

The Knicks are listing F Amare Stoudemire (hand) as doubtful for Sunday’s Game 4. Stoudemire severely cut his non-shooting hand while punching a fire extinguisher case in frustration after New York’s Game 2 loss in Miami. The Heat leads the series 3-0.

The A’s put OF Coco Crisp on the 15-day DL with an inner ear infection. The issue has plagued Crisp for weeks, and he’s hitting just .194 with five RBIs in 67 at-bats. Seth Smith and Jonny Gomes are expected to get most of the starts in left field.

Yankees closer Mariano Rivera, 42, vowed Friday to return from his torn ACL. "I'm coming back. Write it down in big letters," he told reporters. "I'm not going out like this." Rivera has 608 career saves, and his 42 postseason saves are the most in MLB history.

**Udog** · 05-05-2012, 08:26 AM

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

-- Marlins scored five runs in top of 1st, but it took 12 innings to win 9-8 at San Diego, Miami's fourth straight road win this week.

-- Angels got blanked by Toronto for second night in row; hard to believe, but Halos haven't scored in any of Ervin Santana's last five starts.

-- Albert Pujols has gone 139 AB since his last HR, in Game 3 of World Series last fall; he's hitting .194.

-- Johnny Cueto is 4-0, 1.31 so far this season; fast start for the Reds.

-- Cleveland Indians are 14-10 and in first place in the AL Central.

-- Tampa Bay has won 11 of last 12 games, is 19-8 and has best record in major leagues, even with its best player on the DL. Go figure

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Armadillo: Saturday's Den: DD Lohaus handicaps the Kentucky Derby..

Great Day! Great Day! Here's hoping the weather cooperates.

Today's race features nine horses from last years Breeders Cup Juvenile all who have had done rather nicely since. That fact alone makes this years Derby a very interesting race.

I know I've said it before but there is a case to be made for a lot of the horses in this race. Clearly weather will be a concern, pace is a concern and of course the trip will a major factor.

After a thorough review of the entrants I have narrowed it down to a few logical choices that I think can actually win. My betting strategy is to offer the best combination of value and chance of winning. With 20 horses and so many variables, it is hard to accept very short odds.

Bodemeister really announced his credentials with an eye-popping performance in last. His 108 Beyer is by far the best in the field. My knock would be that maybe, just maybe, he peaked one race too early. Lightly raced and maybe just getting good, this guy must be respected and off past performances is the horse to beat.

Gemologist is coming into this race quietly and with a pretty solid resume. His time are on the slower side, but he knows how to win AND he has won twice on the Churchill oval; a fact not to be lightly dismissed. Pletcher hasn't said much but I get the sense he likes his chances.

Dullahan is coming into the race looking good but could be overlooked because he may get labeled as a synthetic only horse. I think he may be getting good at the right time and has a shot at a really nice price.

Union Rags moves way up if the track comes up muddy or sloppy. His off track win at Saratoga tells me that he likes the off going and would be the selection on an off track.

Creative Cause, out of Giant's Causeway, made a nice account of himself in last years Breeders Cup and he was DEAD GAME in his last, a sign to me that he may be sitting on a big one and offer some value.

Daddy Nose Best has the look of another Derby winner coming off a nice win at Sunland in last. He will be running late and figures to catch a lively pace. Don't discount!

The rest of the field has minor appeal in certain spots but I just don't see enough to invest any hard earned cash. Any one can be around to pick up a minor award but a win would be a major upset.

The picks: See above

The Bets:
Value Plays:
$20 WPS Dullahan
$10 WPS Creative Cause
$2 WPS Daddy Nose Best

If Muddy/Sloppy:
$10 WPS Union Rags
$5 WPS El Padrino

Good Luck

**Udog** · 05-05-2012, 08:27 AM

Kentucky Derby betting: Horse-by-horse preview and picks

While the Kentucky Derby is always a bit of a crapshoot, this year’s race is a mess. With 20 horses entered and a slew of closers, all of which seem to be heading into the race in top form, it should set up for a wild finish.

Only five favorites have won the Derby since Spectacular Bid in 1979, but lately the chalk has done much better. Bodemeister is the early favorite but can he go 1¼ miles?

Here are the horses in post position order:

1. Daddy Long Legs (+3000); Jockey: Colm O’Donghue

Ran a forgettable 12th in a field of 13 in his last outing, also at Churchill Downs. Hard to recommend off that one but this colt has solid connections and could get up for a piece of the purse. Father Scat Daddy ran in the 2007 Derby but the rail is an issue.

2. Optimizer (+5000); Jockey: Jon Court

Appears much more suited for the turf but trainer D. Wayne Lukas wants a reason to go to the Derby and this is the best he has. This horse will make some noise in the summer but not here.

3. Take Charge Indy (+1500); Jockey: Calvin Borel

Went wire-to-wire in the Florida Derby and should be in the thick of things here. Out of A.P. Indy, this colt is extremely sharp and Borel is the master of knowing when to make his move. He’ll get a call in this one.

4. Union Rags (+550): Jockey: Julien Leparoux

Flew home in the Florida Derby, finishing third to Take Charge Indy. Works have been solid but unspectacular, but he appears to be able to get the distance which is a mystery for many of the top contenders. He could go from Rags to riches and be a serious Triple Crown threat if he can avoid traffic problems. Leparoux is having a strong Churchill Downs meet.

5. Dullahan (+800); Jockey Kent Desormeaux

Ran a monstrous stretch to win the Bluegrass last time out. Has fantastic closing speed but could get buried behind a wall of horses in the field of 20. That, and the fact that he seems to like synthetic surfaces better, scares me off of this one.

6. Bodemeister (+400): Jockey: Mike Smith

Seems destined to go off the favorite but no horse has won the Derby that has not run as a 2-year-old since 1888. Still, Smith’s mount has won two of his four races by blowouts and he’s trained well. Certainly a top contender but I don’t want him in a tight race while only getting 4-1.

7. Rousing Sermon (+5000); Jockey: Jose Lezcano

Another horse with great closing kick but he’s 0 for 3 this season on Grade II races. Would like to have seen a better effort at Santa Anita where he was well back in consecutive starts. Nevertheless, this is the type of horse to put a couple of bucks on and pray for boxcar payoffs.

8. Creative Cause (+1200); Jockey: Joel Rosario

Has hit the board in eight starts and beat the favorite, Bodemeister, in the San Felipe. Always seem to be battling traffic problems, some of which was his doing. This one tries hard but if he’s bumped around it will hinder his chances. Trainer Mike Harrington is making first Derby start at age 71.

9. Trinniberg (+5000); Jockey: Willie Martinez

Has won two straight but the distance should be his downfall. This one has never gone past seven furlongs. Appears to be the rabbit and nothing else.

10. Daddy Nose Best (+1500); Jockey: Garrett Gomez

The seasoned vet of the field with 10 races (four wins) has a good closing kick. My biggest knock is that Leparoux wanted to ride Union Rags and Mike Smith went for Bodemeister. Gomez is a solid jock but this is going to take one heck of an effort weaving through traffic to get there.

11. Alpha (+1500); Jockey: Rajiv Maragh

Has won three of six starts but Alpha never looked like he could catch Gemologist in the Wood and has had health issues. His recent work at Belmont was impressive but he’s 0 for 3 in Grade I events and I don’t think he gets there. Bernardini’s horse is a must-use in the exotics.

12. Prospective (+3000); Jockey: Luis Contreras

Was last in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile run at Churchill Downs last year and it is hard to see him outkicking some of these foes. Pass.

13. Went the Day Well (+3000); Jockey: John Velazquez

Another closer that improved greatly since his maiden win two starts ago. Will add blinkers but I question his speed and he’s never seen the likes of these horses.

14. Hansen (+1000); Jockey: Ramon Dominguez

Sure to be the star of NBC’s coverage, the Great White Hope is a beauty but has plenty of questions. The distance could be the biggest problem but he should stay clear of the traffic. My guess is he fades to second place.

15. Gemologist (+800); Jockey: Javier Castellano

The only undefeated horse in the race, he’s won all five starts including a dominant performance in the Wood. He’s worked well and is fresh. The only knock is who he’s beaten and that’s the one I’m hanging my hat on.

16. El Padrino (+2000): Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

Todd Pletcher trainee is sure to take some money but didn’t fire in the Florida Derby. He’s 2 for 2 on an off track but I don’t like the works and he seems to be off his game.

17. Done Talking (+5000): Jockey: Sheldon Russell

Crushed by Hansen two starts ago, he came back to win the Illinois Derby. Yet another closer without the monstrous kick, seems better suited for regular allowance events.

18. Sabercat (+3000): Jockey: Corey Nakatani

Asmussen trainee seems to be able to get the distance but also looks like he’d need a big-time speed duel up front to help his cause. And if that happens, I think others would be closing much better. Pass.

19. I'll Have Another (+1200); Jockey: Mario Gutierrez

Just missed in the Santa Anita Derby but the post could hurt this speedster from making the front. Has won 3 of 5 and has a Beyer figure of over 100. I’m guessing he burns himself out getting to the front and fades in the stretch.

20. Liaison (+5000); Jockey: Martin Garcia

Baffert trainee has not been sharp. Puts the blinkers back on but seems to be overmatched here.

Kentucky Derby picks:

1. Union Rags. 2. Hansen. 3. Daddy Knows Best. 4. Went The Day Well

**Udog** · 05-05-2012, 08:27 AM

Kentucky Derby handicapping: Good and bad trends

Over the years we’ve seen some trends hold up very well in the Kentucky Derby, while others haven’t been nearly as strong in recent years. Here’s a look at some of both kinds of Kentucky Derby handicapping trends to help you in your handicapping for Saturday’s big race:

Fewer than six career races

This was once a rock-solid trend. Between 1933 and 2007 only three horses had won with less than six career races, and all of those horses had run five times.

It was widely believed that experience was required to develop the base of familiarity and endurance needed to win the toughest race a three year old will ever run.

That trend has come under attack recently, though.

In 2008 Big Brown won after just three previous career starts. Last year Animal Kingdom had run only four times before his big win. Those two wins in the last four years have challenged the potency of this trend, and made it much harder to trust.

This year will also provide plenty of opportunities for the trend to be roughed up — or destroyed entirely. Potential favorite Bodemeister has run only four times. Five other likely runners — Gemologist, I’ll Have Another, Daddy Long Legs, Went the Day Well, and Mark Valeski — have each run only five times.

Given the way that training horses is changing this trend will likely be nothing but a memory in the future — even if it holds up this year.

No races as a 2-year-old

This is going to be the most publicized trend heading into this race — no horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby without having raced at least once as a 2-year-old. There have been 56 runners since 1944 that have challenged history in this way. Just twice — in 1948 and 1994 — have they come as close as second place.

A horse that hasn’t run at 2 typically hasn’t seen enough and faced enough adversity to be ready for the Derby. They also likely lack maturity — the typical cause for the delayed start to their career.

Horses can develop very well later in the year — the great Curlin was unraced at 2 and took off after his third-place Derby finish. It has effectively not yet been shown that a horse can be ready for the challenge of the first Saturday in May.

Looking to fly in the face of that convention will be Bodemeister. The stunning winner of the Arkansas Derby has a good shot at being the Kentucky Derby favorite. He’s an explosive frontrunner, and unquestionably the fastest member of this class. Can he do what so many before him have been unable to?

Fewer than three races as a 3-year-old

This is another trend that is already on shaky ground thanks to recent history. Between 1937 and 2007 we had seen just six horses with fewer than three races at 3 years old win the Derby. Again, it seemed like fewer races just didn’t give the depth of experience and fitness required to win.

The trend has dramatically reversed recently, though. Each of the last four winners — Big Brown, Mine That Bird, Super Saver, and Animal Kingdom — had only run twice at two.

This year there are a whopping nine horses that have only run twice. Those are Union Rags, Gemologist, Dullahan, I’ll Have Another, Take Charge Indy, Daddy Nose Best, Done Talking, Sabercat, and Trinniberg. Taking it a step further, Daddy Long Legs has run only once this calendar year.

Unbeaten runners

Wood Memorial winner Gemologist, trained by Todd Pletcher, has run five times and won five times. If and when he enters the gate he will become the 23rd undefeated entrant in the Derby.

The success rate of those horses has run well above the success rate for typical entries — seven of the 22 runners have won. In the last decade the results have been even more impressive — five undefeated runners have turned into three Derby champions, including Smarty Jones, Barbaro and Big Brown.

Layoff

Barbaro had a huge impact on how the sport was viewed by the general public and also those who cared about horse racing. He also changed the way people thought about layoffs heading into the race.

Entering his Derby in 2006, no horse since Needles in 1956 had won off a layoff of four or more weeks heading into the Kentucky Derby. It was widely believed that if a horse was off for more than three weeks he wouldn’t be ready to run on the big day.

After Barbaro proved it could be done trainers really embraced the extended rest approach. In subsequent years Big Brown, Super Saver and Animal Kingdom won off of a long rest.

This year it’s more remarkable if a horse isn’t coming off long rest than if he is — 15 of the 20 likely entrants are on at least four weeks rest, and six of the 20 haven’t run since March.

No prep race win

You’d think that it would be a bad thing if a horse hasn’t won a stakes race as a 3-year-old before the Derby. If he can’t win a lesser race then why would you trust him in the biggest race in the world?

That logic hasn’t consistently held up, though.

Since 1980 we have seen 11 horses earn their first stakes win of the year at Churchill Downs. That means you don’t have to be scared of a horse that hasn’t won yet.

Interestingly, though, that’s not much of a factor this year. Only four likely runners — Liaison, Mark Valeski, Rousing Sermon, and Sabercat — have yet to record a victory. Optimizer and My Adonis are the two horses currently outside of the Kentucky Derby field hoping to get in, and neither has won yet this year, either.

The fact that every other horse is a winner of a graded stakes is a sign of just how deep and competitive this field is. Last year was a much weaker class of horses, and eight of those horses hadn’t crossed the line first.

**Udog** · 05-05-2012, 08:28 AM

NHL
Dunkel

NY Rangers at Washington
The Capitals look to build on their 6-1 record in their last 7 Saturday games. Washington is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Capitals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, MAY 5

Game 51-52: NY Rangers at Washington (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 0.912; Washington 12.643
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-115); Under

NHL
Long Sheet

Saturday, May 5

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ST LOUIS (53-25-0-12, 118 pts.) at LOS ANGELES (47-28-0-15, 109 pts.) - 5/6/2012, 3:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 8-7 (+1.1 Units) against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 8-7-0 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
9 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.4 Units)

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NHL
Short Sheet

Saturday, May 5, 2012

EC Semifinals, Game Four (New York Leads, 2-1)
NY Rangers at Washington, 12:35 ET NBC
NY Rangers: 12-5 SU away playijng with two days rest
Washington: 14-2 Under off a home loss

NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, May 5

Capitals @ Rangers (2-1)-- Teams basically played a doubleheader Wednesday, with Rangers winning with 5:11 left in third OT; total of 12 goals have scored so far in series. Caps have already played five OT games in playoffs, and lost three of last four home games. Washington killed 30 of 34 penalties so far in playoffs; Rangers are 2-14 on power play in last four games. Rangers lost four of last six games in this building, but have won three of four road games in playoffs this spring. New York won four of last five since being down 3-2 to Ottawa.

NHL

Saturday, May 5

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Trend Report
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12:30 PM
NY RANGERS vs. WASHINGTON
NY Rangers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Rangers last 6 games
Washington is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Rangers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against NY Rangers

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NHL

Saturday, May 5

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What bettors need to know: Saturday's NHL playoff action
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New York Rangers at Washington Capitals (-109, 5)

It wasn’t supposed to be this difficult for the Rangers. They were the East’s No. 1 seed and just missed out on the Presidents’ Trophy on the last night of the regular season.

To face a No. 8 seed in the first round and a No. 7 in the second was going to be a breeze, many assumed. Well, either New York isn’t as advertised or the Eastern Conference is tougher than most thought.

Nothing is coming easy for the Rangers. The Capitals are making sure of it.

Gaborik has a game

New York has depth and can throw plenty of scoring options at you. But without question, the Rangers will not win a Stanley Cup without the “A” game of forward Marian Gaborik. He's the star, whether he likes it or not, and he needs to start playing like it.

Perhaps he's on his way. His second goal of the postseason ended the Game 3 marathon Wednesday night and gave the Rangers a 2-1 win, and a 2-1 lead in the series.

It was clearly Gaborik's best effort of the postseason. Granted, it almost reached six full periods of play. But the veteran, who had 41 goals and 76 points in the regular season, also had an assist, a block and finished with seven shots on net.

That needs to keep up, especially the latter. Gaborik must keep firing shots. It helps his confidence and gives his linemates rebound opportunities.

Team tough

The Capitals' postseason run will go a long way toward diffusing the notion that this team isn't tough.

Win or lose in this series and beyond, coach Dale Hunter's crew has established itself as one difficult out. Not unlike Tampa Bay last year -- the Lightning infused the Left Wing Lock system under coach Guy Boucher, changed the team's identity, and frustrated teams all the way to the conference finals -- Washington has shed the "soft" label.

The Capitals have three forwards, Matt Hendricks (49), Alex Ovechkin (45) and Troy Brouwer (32), who have topped 30 hits this postseason and there are three more who have reached at least 20.

Washington has 94 minutes in penalties, led by forward Nicklas Backstrom (16), but Hunter has faith in his penalty-kill unit and the minutes really haven't cost the Caps yet.

The Rangers and Bruins, whom the Capitals eliminated in seven games in Round 1, can bang bodies around too. And, pound for pound, those two clubs have more talent than Washington. But this team has not gone away yet, and it has a lot to do with their fight.

Waiting on Dubinsky

New York forward Brandon Dubinsky, who had 10 goals and 34 points in the regular season, has been limited by a leg injury in the playoffs and his absence is evident. He didn't have the best statistical year of his career, but he’s among the Rangers' blue-collar forwards who do a little bit of everything.

He has just one point in seven playoff games and is a plus-2. He was seen walking with the aid of crutches earlier this week, but he’s with the team in Washington, so you never know when he might return. It is, after all, the playoffs and injury news is hazy.

Dubinsky had two shots on goal and two penalty minutes in New York’s 2-1 Game 7 win over Ottawa, but hasn’t seen the ice since.

History

New York has won four of its last five overall and seven of the last nine road games. Washington has won six of the last seven Saturday games, but has dropped seven of the last eight in Eastern Conference semifinal play. How’s this for playoff hockey: The Rangers are riding a nine-game overless streak (0-5-4).

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**Udog** · 05-05-2012, 08:30 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Memphis at LA Clippers
The Grizzlies look to build on their 5-1-2 ATS record in their last 8 conference quarterfinal games. Memphis is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+3). Here are all of today's picks

SATURDAY, MAY 5

Game 545-546: Indiana at Orlando (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 121.862; Orlando 115.393
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 6 1/2; 177
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 4 1/2; 181 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-4 1/2); Under

Game 547-548: Memphis at LA Clippers (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 120.591; LA Clippers 120.236
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 183
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 3; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+3); Under

Game 549-550: Oklahoma City at Dallas (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 121.106; Dallas 121.173
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1 1/2; 193 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+1 1/2); Under

Game 551-552: San Antonio at Utah (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 131.855; Utah 122.645
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 9; 205
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 5 1/2; 202
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-5 1/2); Over

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, May 5

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INDIANA (44 - 25) at ORLANDO (38 - 31) - 5/5/2012, 2:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 103-74 ATS (+21.6 Units) on Saturday games since 1996.
ORLANDO is 71-85 ATS (-22.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 21-35 ATS (-17.5 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 29-43 ATS (-18.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 7-7 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 10-4 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MEMPHIS (42 - 26) at LA CLIPPERS (41 - 27) - 5/5/2012, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 89-71 ATS (+10.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 42-27 ATS (+12.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 174-237 ATS (-86.7 Units) after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 134-185 ATS (-69.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 6-6 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 7-6 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (50 - 19) at DALLAS (36 - 33) - 5/5/2012, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 94-75 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 36-21 ATS (+12.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 60-37 ATS (+19.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 47-28 ATS (+16.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 138-115 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 73-53 ATS (+14.7 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 11-8 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-9 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
10 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (52 - 16) at UTAH (36 - 32) - 5/5/2012, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 47-30 ATS (+14.0 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 45-20 ATS (+23.0 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 35-15 ATS (+18.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 46-29 ATS (+14.1 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 2 days rest this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 40-22 ATS (+15.8 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) after scoring 105 points or more this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 26-10 ATS (+15.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 6-6 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 8-5 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Short Sheet

Saturday, May 5

EC Quarterfinals, Game Four (Indiana Leads, 2-1)
Indiana at Orlando, 2:05 ET ESPN
Indiana: 8-1 Over away with a total of 180 to 184.5 points
Orlando: 4-15 ATS off BB losses by 15+ points

WC Quarterfinals, Game Three (Series Tied, 1-1)
Memphis at LA Clippers, 4:35 ET ESPN
Memphis: 23-10 Under in road games
LA Clippers: 16-7 ATS revenging a road loss

WC Quarterfinals, Game Four (Oklahoma City Leads, 3-0)
Oklahoma City at Dallas, 7:35 ET TNT
Oklahoma City: 12-3 Under after allowing 85 points or less
Dallas: 19-5 ATS in playoff games

WC Quarterfinals, Game Three (San Antonio Leads, 2-0)
San Antonio at Utah, 10:05 ET TNT
San Antonio: 19-3 ATS with a total of 200+ points
Utah: 13-4 Under with a total of 200+ points

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, May 5

Spurs (2-0) @ Jazz-- San Antonio has won its last 12 games (11-0-1 vs spread) with both games in this series staying under total. Spurs won eight of last nine games vs Utah, winning three of last four played here by 8-4-10 points, but they did lose last visit here. SA was dominant in first couple games, leading last game 53-28 at half- they shot 57% from floor, made 10-22 behind arc. Spurs have only won one playoff series in last three years, curious to see if they can make short work of Jazz.

Pacers (2-1) @ Magic-- Indiana was lucky, drawing Magic in this round without Dwight Howard; Orlando scored 81-78-74 points in first three games, starters other than Glen Davis were just 9-28 in hideous Game 3 loss. Orlando is 9-3 in last dozen games vs Indiana, winning six of last eight played here, with only one of the six wins by less than 13 points, but most of that was with Howard. Indiana FG% has gone up in every game, from 34.5% to 42.9% to 46.8%, bad sign for Orlando.

Grizzlies @ Clippers (1-1)-- LA shot 56.7% from floor in Game 2 but lost at Memphis; very rare a team shoots that well and loses. Grizzlies made 31 of 39 on foul line in Game 2, after being 11-18 in opener. Clips won five of last seven series games, with home team winning six of last eight, four of five this season. Keep in mind Clippers lost Butler (broken hand) in wild Game 1 win, when they were down 27 but won. Memphis lost last three visits here, by 7-7-16 points.

Thunder (2-1) @ Mavericks-- Oklahoma City held defending champs to 34.7% from floor in surprisingly easy Game 3 win, after taking couple terrific games in Games 1-2, winning by 1-3 points. Durant was 11-15 from floor last game, after being 15-44 in first two; Thunder was 12-28 from arc, after being 11-32 in two home games. As long as Ibaka/Harden give OC double digits in support of Durant/Westbrook, Thunder is very good. Pride game for Dallas, whose guards just don't shoot it well.

NBA

Saturday, May 5

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Trend Report
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2:00 PM
INDIANA vs. ORLANDO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games
Indiana is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Orlando is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games at home

4:30 PM
MEMPHIS vs. LA CLIPPERS
Memphis is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Memphis's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the LA Clippers last 7 games at home
LA Clippers are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games at home

7:30 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. DALLAS
Oklahoma City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City

10:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. UTAH
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 7 games when playing on the road against Utah
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Antonio's last 10 games
Utah is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 7 games when playing at home against San Antonio

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NBA

Saturday, May 5

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What bettors need to know: Saturday's NBA playoff action
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Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic (+5, 181.5)

Indiana leads series 2-1.

THE STORY: Fresh off two decisive second-half performances, the Indiana Pacers attempt to take a 3-1 series lead when they visit the Orlando Magic in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference first-round series on Saturday. Indiana has outscored Orlando 81-43 in the third quarter in the first three games of the series and the uprisings have been critical elements in the Pacers’ back-to-back double-digit victories. Orlando has badly missed center Dwight Howard, sidelined after season-ending back surgery.

TV: 2 p.m. ET, ESPN, Fox Sports Indiana (Indiana), Fox Sports Florida (Orlando)

ABOUT THE PACERS (34-35 ATS): Leading scorer Danny Granger rediscovered his shooting stroke in Game 3 by scoring 26 points and going 5 for 9 from 3-point range. Granger hit just three of 14 3-pointers in the first two games. He is averaging 20.3 points and eight rebounds in the series while leading the well-balanced Indiana attack. Four other Pacers are averaging in double figures – guard George Hill (14.7), forward David West (13.7), guard Paul George (12.3) and center Roy Hibbert (10). Hibbert has taken advantage of Howard’s absence by also averaging 12 rebounds and 4.7 blocks. West is averaging 9.3 boards and playing tenacious defense.

ABOUT THE MAGIC (35-34 ATS): Forward Ryan Anderson is in the midst of an ill-timed disappearing act. Anderson has been tormented by West and is averaging just 7.7 points and shooting 31.8 percent from the field. Anderson made an NBA-high 161 3-pointers during the regular season but is just 5 of 15 from behind the arc in the series. “He’s going to have to put a lot more into the game,” Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said. “It’s not going to be easy now for him. It’s the playoffs – people are going to make adjustments and they’ve made a conscious effort to take him out and he’s not going to get some easy things he got all year.”

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Indiana has averaged 95 points in its two victories and was limited to 77 in its loss.

2. Orlando G/F Jason Richardson has scored a total of seven points in the last two games after tallying 17 points in the opener.

3. The Pacers have held Orlando to 13 points in the third quarter twice in the series and 17 in the other contest.

Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Clippers (-3, 187.5)

THE STORY: Despite staging one of the more remarkable comebacks in postseason history to steal Game 1 and home-court advantage, the Los Angeles Clippers were lamenting a missed opportunity as they prepare to host the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 3 of their first-round series Saturday afternoon. Los Angeles shot nearly 57 percent from the floor in Game 2 but came out on the short end of a 105-98 loss. "I felt like we could have got two (wins)," Clippers PG Chris Paul said.

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, Fox Sports West

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (29-38-1 ATS): Memphis found the perfect strategy to counter the Lob City tactics of the Clippers: Attack the offensive glass. The Grizzlies managed to negate Los Angeles' sizzling shooting in Game 2 by establishing a punishing inside presence, owning a 16-4 edge in offensive rebounds and outscoring the Clippers 18-6 on second-chance points. Memphis also showed why it led the league in steals and forced turnovers in the regular season, harassing Los Angeles into 21 turnovers and recording 13 thefts. Rudy Gay scored 21 points to lead a balanced attack featuring six players in double figures.

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (34-33-1 ATS): Paul was noticeably more aggressive on the offensive end from the outset in Game 2 and finished with 29 points, six assists and five steals. However, he was also responsible for five of the turnovers, matching his high from the regular season. One concern for the Clippers entering Game 3 is the health of their perimeter players. Reserve guards Mo Williams (bruised right forearm) and Eric Bledsoe (bruised left elbow) each left the floor with injuries in the fourth quarter, and Game 1 hero Nick Young (sprained right thumb) also was hurt. All three are expected to play Saturday.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Los Angeles.
* Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Grizzlies are 1-3-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Memphis is the first team in 15 years (Seattle, 1995-97) to lead the league in steals and forced turnovers in back-to-back seasons.

2. The Clippers committed the second-fewest turnovers this season, setting a franchise mark with 12.33 per game.

3. Grizzles reserve guard O.J. Mayo scored 10 of his 20 points in the fourth quarter Wednesday. Memphis is 7-1 when he scores in double figures in the fourth.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks (1.5, 193.5)

THE STORY: To be the champ, you have to beat the champ – and the Oklahoma City Thunder appear to be embracing that mantra. The visiting Thunder can end the reign of the defending NBA champions and complete a series sweep in Game 4 against the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday night. After two narrow home victories, the Thunder overwhelmed Dallas in Game 3 behind 31 points from league scoring champ Kevin Durant. No team in NBA history has ever overcome a 3-0 series deficit.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT, KTXA

ABOUT THE THUNDER: Durant rebounded from a pair of sub-par shooting performances by scoring 15 first-quarter points to set the tone for Oklahoma City’s romp in Game 3. All-Star point guard Russell Westbrook helped break the game open with 11 points in the third quarter, but it was unexpected contributions that left the Mavericks dazed and on the brink of elimination. Backup guards Derek Fisher and Daequan Cook had all the points in 15-1 run bridging the third and fourth quarter as the Thunder moved within one victory of avenging last season's five-game series loss to Dallas.

ABOUT THE MAVERICKS: Falling behind by 15 points early put Dallas' aging core at a serious disadvantage. While the Mavericks were the comeback kings en route to the NBA title last season, star forward Dirk Nowitzki realizes the immediate goal is much more modest. "We have to win a game," he said. "We need to show some pride on Saturday.” Nowitzki torched Oklahoma City for a pair of 40-point performances in last season's playoffs, but with the Mavericks trailing by five points moments into the second half and the game hanging in the balance, he mustered only one point in the third quarter.

TRENDS:

* Thunder is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games laying 0.5-4.5 points.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Dallas.
* Underdog is 20-5-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings.
* Mavericks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as home underdogs.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The Mavericks, who have never been swept in the playoffs, are trying to avoid becoming the first reigning champ to be ousted in the first round since the Miami Heat in 2007.

2. Oklahoma City committed a season-low eight turnovers Thursday – half its NBA-worst 16.0 average.

3. Nowitzki was held without an assist for only the second time in his last 26 postseason games.

San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz (5.5, 202)

THE STORY: The Utah Jazz found a way to slow down the San Antonio Spurs in their last trip to Salt Lake City. Of course, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich provided a considerable assist by resting his three top players to enable Utah to snap the Spurs' 11-game win streak. The Jazz won't have the luxury of facing San Antonio's juggernaut shorthanded this time around as they look to bounce back from a 2-0 deficit in Game 3 of their first-round series Saturday night.

TV: 10 p.m. ET, TNT, FSSW+

ABOUT THE SPURS: Point guard Tony Parker was an under-the-radar MVP candidate during the regular season, and he's continued his brilliant play in the postseason to help San Antonio extend its win streak to 12 games. Parker scored 28 points to go with eight assists in the opener and followed it up with 18 and nine in Game 2 despite playing only 27 1/2 minutes. Parker has not made a 3-pointer since March 28, attempting only nine in the span, but guides a ruthlessly efficient offense that is averaging over 114 points during the 12-game streak.

ABOUT THE JAZZ: Utah rolled into the postseason riding a five-game win streak, but has been unable to keep pace with the top-seeded Spurs. Wednesday's 114-83 thrashing was the second-worst playoff loss in team history. The Jazz scored only 28 first-half points in Game 2 and were vaporized by a 20-0 Spurs' run. Utah acquitted itself better in the series opener, getting a combined 53 points from its frontline of Paul Millsap, Gordon Hayward and Al Jefferson, but the starting backcourt has produced a combined 20 points in the first two games.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in Utah's last four games.
* Spurs are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Home team is 21-8-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings.
* Jazz is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The Spurs have won eight of the last nine meetings, with the only loss coming last month with Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili sitting out.

2. Utah is 9-1 all-time at home against the Spurs in the postseason.

3. San Antonio has its first 2-0 playoff series lead since 2008.

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**Udog** · 05-05-2012, 08:33 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Chicago White Sox at Detroit
The White Sox look to bounce back from last night's 5-4 loss and build on their 6-1 record in their last 7 road games against a right-handed starter. Chicago is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the White Sox favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+115). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, MAY 5

Game 901-902: LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Capuano) 15.880; Cubs (Volstad) 14.400
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); No Total
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-145); N/A

Game 903-904: Philadelphia at Washington (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Worley) 16.160; Washington (Gonzalez) 15.137
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-140); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+120); Under

Game 905-906: Milwaukee at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Wolf) 14.430; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 13.835
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+130); Under

Game 907-908: Arizona at NY Mets (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Corbin) 14.035; NY Mets (Santana) 14.936
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-165); Over

Game 909-910: St. Louis at Houston (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Garcia) 15.929; Houston (Norris) 16.791
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+135); Over

Game 911-912: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 15.339; Pittsburgh (McDonald) 16.385
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-120); Under

Game 913-914: Atlanta at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 14.778; Colorado (Moyer) 15.135
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-115); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-105); Over

Game 915-916: Miami at San Diego (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Buehrle) 15.331; San Diego (Richard) 13.761
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Miami (-130); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-130); Under

Game 917-918: Baltimore at Boston (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hammel) 15.100; Boston (Cook) 16.080
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-120); Under

Game 919-920: Chicago White Sox at Detroit (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 15.815; Detroit (Scherzer) 15.021
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+115); Over

Game 921-922: Texas at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Holland) 16.430; Cleveland (Lowe) 14.958
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-140); Under

Game 923-924: Oakland at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Colon) 16.177; Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 15.080
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-160); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+140); Over

Game 925-926: NY Yankees at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Kuroda) 14.081; Kansas City (Paulino) 15.080
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+135); Under

Game 927-928: Toronto at LA Angels (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Drabek) 15.102; LA Angels (Wilson) 15.487
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-170); Over

Game 929-930: Minnesota at Seattle (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Marquis) 14.801; Seattle (Hernandez) 13.591
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-205); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+175); Under

**Udog** · 05-05-2012, 08:39 AM

MLB

Saturday, May 5

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Trend Report
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1:05 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 9 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Washington's last 20 games at home

1:05 PM
LA DODGERS vs. CHI CUBS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chi Cubs's last 10 games
Chi Cubs are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers

1:10 PM
BALTIMORE vs. BOSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Baltimore's last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Boston is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games at home

4:05 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:05 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. DETROIT
Chi White Sox are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox

4:05 PM
ARIZONA vs. NY METS
Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Arizona's last 21 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of NY Mets's last 8 games when playing at home against Arizona

7:05 PM
TEXAS vs. CLEVELAND
Texas is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 7 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Texas

7:05 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. HOUSTON
St. Louis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing St. Louis

7:05 PM
CINCINNATI vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games

7:10 PM
NY YANKEES vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Yankees's last 9 games when playing Kansas City
NY Yankees are 15-8 SU in their last 23 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 9 games when playing NY Yankees
Kansas City is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games at home

7:10 PM
OAKLAND vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Oakland's last 21 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Oakland's last 15 games
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games at home

8:10 PM
ATLANTA vs. COLORADO
Atlanta is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Colorado's last 8 games when playing Atlanta
Colorado is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

8:35 PM
MIAMI vs. SAN DIEGO
Miami is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games ,when playing San Diego
Miami is 5-13-1 SU in its last 19 games ,on the road
San Diego8-0-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Miami
San Diego is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games ,

9:05 PM
TORONTO vs. LA ANGELS
Toronto is 6-2 SU in their last 8 games when playing LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Angels's last 6 games at home
LA Angels are 4-8 SU in their last 12 games

9:10 PM
MINNESOTA vs. SEATTLE
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota

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**Udog** · 05-05-2012, 08:41 AM

MLB

Saturday, May 5

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Saturday's streaking and slumping starters
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STREAKING

Jason Hammel, Baltimore Orioles
3-1, 1.97 ERA

The 29-year-old right-hander has a WHIP of 1.03 and is holding batters to a .200 average. He has gone at least six innings in four of his five starts. Dating back to last season, Hammel has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six straight starts. When he faces the Red Sox at Fenway on Saturday, he needs to be especially careful with David Ortiz, who is 6-for-10 lifetime against Hammel.

Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
4-1, 2.53 ERA

Bumgarner, who didn’t get his first win last year until May 19, goes for his fifth Saturday at home against the Brewers. The young, hard-throwing lefty has gone at least six innings in four straight starts, allowing a total of five earned runs in that span. Ryan Braun is 4-for-10 against Bumgarner in his career, with two doubles and a homer.

SLUMPING

Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers
1-3, 7.77 ERA

After walking seven Yankees in 4 2/3 innings last time out, Scherzer and pitching coach Jeff Jones said they had detected a flaw in his mechanic and would fix it in bullpen sessions. We’ll believe it when we see it. The league is hitting .356 against the 27-year-old right-hander, and his WHIP is a hard-to-believe 2.05. Scherzer gets the White Sox on Saturday.

Clayton Richard, San Diego Padres
1-3, 5.12 ERA

The 28-year-old lefty has served up five homers in five starts, and has nearly as many walks (13) as strikeouts (17). He’s given up at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts. Current Marlins are 5-for-13 against him with a .615 slugging percentage. On the plus side, he’s been far better at home than on the road.

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**Udog** · 05-05-2012, 08:42 AM

NASCAR betting: Aarons 499 at Talladega preview and picks

NASCAR heads to its biggest stage this weekend, the 2.66-mile Talladega Superspeedway for the Sprint Cup series Aarons 499 Sunday.

The favorite this week could be the biggest story of the NASCAR season. Five-time Talladega winner Dale Earnhardt Jr. could accomplish two goals Sunday: Give Hendrick Motorsports its 200th victory and snap his 138-race winless streak, dating back to June 2008.

NASCAR opened its season at the other superspeedway, Daytona International Speedway. With the same rules in place that bring back the old style of pack racing as they were at Daytona, look for Earnhardt to shine this weekend.

The pack racing that used to be the norm at the superspeedways was at its height during a time when Earnhardt was dominant at Talladega. He finished second at Daytona and placed second in Richmond last weekend. All the signs point to an Earnhardt victory Sunday.

“I feel like the style of racing we had in the Daytona 500 this year suits me better,” Earnhardt said. “I feel more confident in that style than I do the tandem. I do like having more control of my destiny and making my own decisions for myself. I want to look out for No. 1 and my team all day long and try to do whatever I can to put myself in position to win the race. That is really what I feel like I have been doing all my life. To do anything different just doesn’t feel comfortable. It feels odd to me.”

The Richard Childress Racing stable has won three of the last four races at Talladega. Clint Bowyer, now driving a Toyota for Michael Waltrip Racing, was behind the wheel of a RCR machine when he won here last fall. But Chevys are dominant at the superspeedway, so look for RCR driver Kevin Harvick, who won in the spring of 2010, to step up to the plate.

Never count out Jimmie Johnson. Earnhardt’s Hendrick Motorsports teammate is the defending winner of this event and has been on the cusp of victory nearly every race this season. Johnson could easily steal Sunday’s show and his teammate’s thunder.

Head to Head

Keselowski vs. Busch: Both have wins here, Keselowski in 2009 and Busch in 2008. Both drivers also have wins this season along with identical career records, with one Top 5 and two Top-10 finishes at Talladega. Busch is coming off a win at Richmond and might have the momentum, but what separates the pair is their average finish at Talladega - Keselowski 15.0 and Busch 24.3. Look for that stat to play out as Keselowski finishes ahead of Busch Sunday.

Matt Kenseth vs. Greg Biffle: The Roush-Fenway Racing teammates are having a great season so far. Biffle is leading the points, Kenseth is in fourth. Kenseth won at Daytona to open the season, but a Ford winning at Talladega is a rarity. Neither has won here, but Kenseth has three Top-5 finishes to Biffle’s one. Kenseth also has an average finish of 19.3 to Biffle’s 20.6. However, Biffle seems to be having a career season, so bank on him to finish ahead of Kenseth Sunday.

Bottom Line

Richard Childress Racing has won more than any other organization at Talladega with 12 wins. Thirty-three of 85 races have been won from a top-two starting position, including 13 from the pole. Twenty-three have been won from a starting position outside the Top 10. The most recent driver to win from the pole was Jeff Gordon in 2007 (spring). The furthest back in the field a race winner started was 36th, which was also Gordon in 2000.

Picks

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+900)
Kevin Harvick (+1,000)
Jimmie Johnson (+1,200)

**Udog** · 05-05-2012, 12:00 PM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, May 5

Early Pitchers

Hot pitchers
-- Capuano is 2-0, 1.37 in his last three starts.
-- Worley is 2-0, 0.90 in his last three starts. GGonzalez is 2-1, 0.69 in his last four outings.

-- Hammel is 3-1, 1.97 in five starts this season.

Cold pitchers
-- Volstad is 0-3, 7.04 in his last three starts.

-- Cook is making first '12 start; he was 0-3, 8.41 in his lat four starts for Colorado last September.

Hot teams
-- Phillies won four of their last six road games.
-- Reds are 9-4 in their last thirteen games.
-- Diamondbacks won six of their last nine road games.
-- Houston won its last five home games.
-- Rockies won six of their last nine home games.
-- Marlins are 4-0 on this road trip, with four one-run wins.

-- Cleveland won four of its last five games.
-- Tampa Bay won six in row, 12 of last 13 games. A's are 6-4 in their last ten road games.
-- Orioles won five of their last six games.
-- Royals are 5-3 in last eight games, but are 1-11 at home this season.
-- Toronto won six of their last seven games.

Cold teams
-- Dodgers lost four of last five road games. Cubs are 6-8 at home.
-- Nationals lost five of their last eight games.
-- Pirates lost six of their last eight games.
-- Cardinals lost three of their last four road games.
-- Mets lost last four games, outscored 23-11.
-- Braves lost three of their last four games.
-- Giants are 4-7 in their last eleven home games. Brewers are 3-5 in their last eight games.
-- Padres are 4-6 in their last ten games.

-- Detroit lost five of its last seven home games. White Sox lost eight of their last ten games.
-- Rangers lost four of their last five games.
-- Red Sox lost four of their last five games.
-- Bronx lost six of its last ten games.
-- Mariners lost their last seven games, scoring 14 runs. Minnesota lost nine of last eleven games.
-- Angels got shut out in their last two games.

Totals
-- Eight of Cubs' last ten games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of Phillies' last nine road games went over the total.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Pittsburgh home games.
-- Six of Mets' last seven games went over the total.
-- Nine of last ten St Louis road games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last eight games at Coors Field went over total.
-- Nine of last ten Miami road games stayed under the total.
-- Five of Giants' last six home games stayed under the total.

-- Seven of White Sox' last nine games went over the total.
-- Under is 7-3 in Cleveland's last nine home games.
-- Eight of last ten Tampa Bay home games stayed under.
-- Four of last six Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Last six Bronx games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 11-1 in Angels' last eleven games.
-- Three of last four Minnesota games stayed under total.

Umpires
-- LA-Chi-- Under is 3-1-1 in Timmons games this year.
-- Phil-Wsh-- All three Holbrook games went over the total.
-- Mil-SF-- Four of five Rapuano games stayed under total.
-- Az-NY-- Three of last four Layne games went over.
-- StL-Hst-- Last three Barry games stayed under the total.
-- Cin-Pitt-- Home side won last three Kulpa games.
-- Atl-Col-- Three of last four TBarrett games stayed under.
-- Mia-SD-- Favorites won four of five Cederstrom games.

-- Balt-Bos-- Road team won both Estabrook games this season.
-- Chi-Det-- Four of last five Nelson games stayed under.
-- Tex-Clev-- Under is 2-0-1 in Bucknor games this season.
-- A's-TB-- Over is 4-1-1 in Nauert games this season.
-- NY-KC-- Underdogs are 3-2 in Gibson games this season.
-- Tor-LA-- Five of six Winters games stayed under the total.
-- Min-Sea-- Favorites won three of four Diaz games.

**Udog** · 05-05-2012, 12:01 PM

MLB
Short Sheet

Saturday, May 5

National League

LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs, 1:05 ET
Capuano: LA 15-7 off BB losses
Volstad: 4-13 TSR in home games

Philadelphia at Washington, 1:05 ET
Worley: PHI 17-6 Under Away when the total is 6 to 6.5
Gonzalez: WASH 12-1 off one run division win

Milwaukee at San Francisco, 4:05 ET FOX
Wolf: MIL 0-7 if bullpen allowed no runs last game
Bumgarner: SF 7-0 Under as home favorite

Arizona at NY Mets, 4:05 ET FOX
Corbin: ARI 12-2 Over when the total is 7 to 8.5
Santana: 105-37 TSR as favorite of -150 or more

St. Louis at Houston, 7:05 ET
Garcia: 20-9 Over as a favorite
Norris: 14-5 Over in night games

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, 7:05 ET
Leake: CIN 11-20 off win by 4+ runs
McDonald: PIT 17-7 Under in all games

Atlanta at Colorado, 8:10 ET MLB
Minor: ATL 30-13 Over vs. NL West
Moyer: COL 1-8 after scoring 7+ runs BB games

Miami at San Diego, 8:35 ET MLB
Buehrle: 40-15 TSR on Saturday
Richard: 2-14 TSR in night games

American League

Baltimore at Boston, 1:10 ET
Hammel: BAL 11-1 when the money line is +125 to -125
Cook: BOS 0-6 at home off 3+ home games

Chicago White Sox at Detroit, 4:05 ET FOX
Floyd: 8-17 TSR vs. division
Scherzer: 5-14 TSR on Saturday

Texas at Cleveland, 7:05 ET
Holland: 12-4 Over off team loss
Lowe: 3-10 TSR off BB team losses

Oakland at Tampa Bay, 7:10 ET
Colon: OAK 14-4 Under vs. righties
Hellickson: TB 13-1 in home games

NY Yankees at Kansas City, 7:10 ET
Kuroda: NYY 19-7 Away off win by 4+ runs
Paulino: KC 0-10 at home off loss

Toronto at LA Angels, 9:05 ET
Drabek: TOR 0-9 after allowing 2 runs or less BB games
Wilson: LA 9-0 Under off BB losses

Minnesota at Seattle, 9:10 ET
Marquis: 10-1 Over as underdog of +150 or higher
Hernandez: SEA 1-15 after scoring 4 runs or less 6 straight games

**Udog** · 05-05-2012, 12:04 PM

MLB
Long Sheet

Saturday, May 5

Early National League

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA DODGERS (17 - 9) at CHICAGO CUBS (10 - 16) - 1:05 PM
CHRIS CAPUANO (L) vs. CHRIS VOLSTAD (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO CUBS are 29-52 (-20.6 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1197-1282 (-237.5 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 81-96 (-29.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 651-659 (-125.6 Units) against the money line in day games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 81-96 (-29.1 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
VOLSTAD is 4-13 (-10.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
VOLSTAD is 4-13 (-10.1 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO CUBS is 1-0 (+1.3 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

CHRIS CAPUANO vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
CAPUANO is 8-2 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.50 and a WHIP of 1.125.
His team's record is 9-3 (+8.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-4. (+2.7 units)

CHRIS VOLSTAD vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
VOLSTAD is 3-3 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.46 and a WHIP of 1.294.
His team's record is 3-3 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-2. (+1.9 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (13 - 14) at WASHINGTON (17 - 9) - 1:05 PM
VANCE WORLEY (R) vs. GIO GONZALEZ (L)
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 41-37 (+15.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 97-91 (+15.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 53-43 (+14.5 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 97-91 (+15.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 55-39 (+13.6 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 627-596 (+41.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
WORLEY is 19-7 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
WORLEY is 19-7 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against PHILADELPHIA this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

VANCE WORLEY vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
WORLEY is 1-1 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 3.75 and a WHIP of 1.083.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)

GIO GONZALEZ vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
No recent starts.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MILWAUKEE (12 - 14) at SAN FRANCISCO (12 - 14) - 4:05 PM
RANDY WOLF (L) vs. MADISON BUMGARNER (L)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 172-85 (+35.9 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 196-119 (+48.5 Units) against the money line in home games against left-handed starters since 1997.
MILWAUKEE is 22-8 (+14.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 68-32 (+26.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
WOLF is 152-122 (+32.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.3 Units)

RANDY WOLF vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
WOLF is 9-6 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 2.85 and a WHIP of 1.149.
His team's record is 10-10 (-0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-12. (-7.6 units)

MADISON BUMGARNER vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
BUMGARNER is 2-1 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 1.27 and a WHIP of 1.125.
His team's record is 2-1 (+0.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-3. (-3.3 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 05-05-2012, 01:08 PM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, May 5

Update

Hot pitchers
-- Capuano is 2-0, 1.37 in his last three starts.
-- Worley is 2-0, 0.90 in his last three starts. GGonzalez is 2-1, 0.69 in his last four outings.
-- Bumgarner is 4-0, 1.50 in his last four starts.
-- JSantana has a 0.71 RA in last two starts, but didn't get a win in either game. Corbin won his first MLB start, allowing three runs in 5.2 IP.
-- JGarcia is 1-1, 2.08 in his last three starts.
-- McDonald is 1-0, 2.41 in his last three starts.

-- Hammel is 3-1, 1.97 in five starts this season.
-- Floyd is 1-1, 1.29 in his last couple starts.
-- Lowe is 2-0, 0.66 in his last couple starts.
-- Colon is 2-1, 1.19 in his last four starts. Hellickson is 2-0, 2.41 in his last three outings.
-- Kuroda has a 1.98 RA in his last couple starts.
-- Drabek has a 2.92 RA in his last four starts. Wilson is 3-2, 2.97 in his five starts this season.
-- FHernandez is 1-1, 1.20 in his last four starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Volstad is 0-3, 7.04 in his last three starts.
-- Wolf is 2-2, 6.84 in five starts this year (2-0, 4.09 last two).
-- Norris is 1-1, 5.75 in five starts this season.
-- Leake is 0-3, 7.89 in his last four starts.
-- Minor is 0-1, 7.30 in his last couple starts. Moyer is 1-2, 4.71 in five starts this season.
-- Buehrle is 1-4, 4.18 in five starts for Miami. Richard is 0-3, 6.75 in his last three starts.

-- Cook is making first '12 start; he was 0-3, 8.41 in his lat four starts for Colorado last September.
-- Scherzer is 1-3, 5.82 in his last four starts.
-- Holland is 0-2, 8.31 in his last couple starts.
-- Paulino is making first '12 start; he wa 2-0, 3.75 in his last four starts LY.
-- Marquis has a 6.23 RA in three starts, but is 2-0.

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