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  • The Bum's Wednesday's MLB Best Bets !

    Zito & Giants Continue Set With Miami Marlins

    Three true southpaws and one hurler believed to be a bit left-brained square off in a pair of National League contests on Wednesday night. One's a getaway game a little after noon Pacific time at Coors Field and the other is a prime-time left coast broadcast from the Bay Area.

    A quick update on April totals betting is in order before we get to those contests. The first 338 games on the 2012 schedule finished in favor of 'under' bettors by a 173-154 margin along with 11 'pushes.' The low side of totals closed the month 26-14 during the final three days of action.

    'Overs' have had their day, no doubt, and that day was Friday to be exact when betting the high side was at its peak in April (27-22-4 'over/under/push'). It's worth mentioning that a couple of the 154 'overs' in the first month were in San Diego on April 21-22 in which the Padres and Phillies combined for 13 runs, just beating a 5½-run total on Saturday and 6½-run scoreboard hurdle on Sunday.

    Four clubs finished April hitting 'overs' at better than a 60 percent clip. Houston led the way at 16-7 'over' followed by Boston (14-7-1), Milwaukee (15-8) and Arizona (14-9). Eight teams registered 'under' wins at 60 percent or better, led by Pittsburgh's amazing 17-4-1 mark to the low side of totals (81%).

    Kershaw & Pomeranz Close Set In Denver
    An interesting matchup of young southpaws will finish off the series in Colorado between the Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers. Though there is only nine months difference in their ages, there's a huge disparity in experience as LA's Clayton Kershaw will be making his 122nd big league start while Colorado's Drew Pomeranz makes just his eighth trip to a major league mound in the afternoon affair (3:10 p.m. ET).

    Colorado struck first in the series on Monday with a 6-2 triumph as -130 chalk. Rockies relievers hurled three no-hit innings in support of the win. Game 2 on Tuesday was still pending with the Rocks an ever-so-slight favorite and most Las Vegas outlets listing a 9½-run total for the pitching matchup between the Dodgers' Ted Lilly and Colorado's Jhoulys Chacin.

    The Rockies will be attempting to do what no team has done so far this year, and that is beat LA with Kershaw on the mound. Five trips to the bump have each ended in victory for the Dodgers with Kershaw posting a stellar 1.78 ERA and 4:1 K/BB ratio in his 30+ innings. He's also allowed just one homer to date, that coming off Adam LaRoche's bat in his last start vs. the Nationals at home. It was one of just three hits he gave up, and Kershaw worked a season-high eight innings in the 3-2 LA win.

    Jim Tracy would be happy if he could get just six innings out of Pomeranz on Wednesday. The former Ole Miss star has worked deep into counts in his three 2012 assignments, walking eight in 13-1/3 innings with opponents batting just over .300. Pomeranz has yet to go past the fifth inning this season.

    While this will be Pomeranz's first go at the Dodgers, Kershaw has had plenty of experience against the Rockies. Los Angeles is 10-6 in his previous assignments vs. Colorado, Kershaw's ERA at 3.97 in 90+ innings. The Dodgers are just 4-5 in his nine starts at Coors Field where Kershaw's ERA bloats to 5.87.

    Zito & Zambrano Match Up In San Fran
    Carlos Zambrano will be looking for his first win with the Marlins when Miami and the San Francisco Giants continue their series at AT&T Park on Wednesday (10:15 p.m. ET). His counterpart on the mound for San Fran will be Barry Zito who has come out of the gates strong with a 1.67 ERA in four starts, three of which ended in Giants victories.

    The series was set to get underway Tuesday night with the Giants -150 behind Matt Cain. Ricky Nolasco was scheduled to pitch for Miami and the total was six runs ('over' 115).

    The unpredictable Zambrano has pitched well enough to have won at least two of his four starts for the Marlins, but has received no help from his offense with Miami being shut out in each of his last two assignments. He's been particularly stingy in his first two road games, holding batters to a measly .133 average and striking out 12 against just two walks.

    Facing the Giants and pitching at AT&T Park might be the remedy to his winless beginning with the Fish. Zambrano posted a 0.86 ERA in his last four starts vs. San Francisco while pitching for the Cubs who were 1-1 in his two assignments in San Francisco (14 IP, 2 ER).

    Zito was a big question mark coming out of spring with a 7.91 ERA and allowing five homers to go with a .405 batting average. That was on the heels of an injury-marred 2011 campaign that saw the lefty post a career-high 5.87 ERA in just 53-2/3 innings.

    None of that has carried over in the regular season, however, starting with the complete game shutout he tossed in Colorado right out of the gate. Despite his struggles the past few seasons with the Giants, Zito has performed well against the Marlins with a 3-1 record in his last four starts vs. the club and a 1.69 ERA.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  • #2
    Pitchers Report - May

    April 30, 2012


    The running of the Kentucky Derby each year signals MLB enters its 2nd month of play. And with it a handful of surprise teams take center stage. The key to sustaining will be success, or lack of it, from the pitching staffs. With that thought in mind, let's zero in on pitchers that will look to keep their team in the race and those that may pull up before they hit the wire.

    Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of May. On the flip side, we've also listed pitchers that struggle in May team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each May over the last three years.

    I'll be back next month with June's Good Month Pitchers. Until then, enjoy…

    GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

    Cueto, Johnny - 12-4
    Notes - The Cincinnati right-hander was very sharp in April, with right hand hitters batting a plaintive .127 against him. Cueto uses a low to mid-90's fastball and tilted slider that he expertly changes speeds with.

    Gallardo, Yovanni - 12-5
    Notes - Gallardo is the ace of the Milwaukee staff and challenges hitters with a 90-95 MPH fastball and has a late-breaking slider. His curveball spins tightly and has excellent downward movement and he'll mix in the occasional change to give hitters something different to look at. Gallardo has not been up to his usual standards just yet, having troubles with left-hand batters. Possibly in May, his rhythm will return.

    Hamels, Cole - 13-3
    Notes - Hamels is an underappreciated hurler who great command. The Phillies lefty mixes two and four-seam fastballs in the low 90's and thanks to Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, has developed a nasty cutter he can work both sides of the plate with. When he throws his two-strike changeup, batters swear it seems to back up, like Hamels has it on a string.

    Johnson, Josh - 10-5
    Notes - After a rocky start, Johnson has begun to find a groove utilizing his hard slider and fastball combination. If the Marlins top pitcher can regain his command, he will start missing more bats (opponents hit .337 against him in April) and be the top thrower Miami needs to compete in the NL East.

    Kershaw, Clayton - 12-6
    Notes - One of the best lefty's in baseball has developed the skill to command his four-pitch repertoire. Still only 24 years old, Kershaw can throw strikes when he needs to spot any pitch where he wants. His continued growth has seen his ground ball-to-fly ball outs skyrocket this season.

    Lester, Jon - 12-6
    Notes - Normally, Lester is one of the finest early season pitchers in the American League, but his walks were up significantly for April (until his final start of the month vs. Chicago) and that number will have to come down in May to match previous win totals. Reports have his delivery a little sped up causing more pitches up and away.

    Lowe, Derrick - 13-5
    Notes - Lowe might not be as old as Jamie Moyer, but he seems to have been around as long. Lowe will be 39 years old on June 1 and no longer has the velocity with his sinker/slider combo package from his younger days and has more balls hit with pace even low in the zone. Strictly fifth starter material and at his age, will be more effective early in the season than late, when the innings take their toll.

    Peavy, Jake - 11-5
    Notes - Is Jake Peavy finally healthy? It sure seems that way as early returns have a 6-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and opposing batters are hitting just .162 versus the White Sox right-hander. The fastball is not the same as younger days, but the snap on breaking pitches has made for lunging swings with little or no contact.

    Porcello, Rick - 10-4
    Notes - Though just 23, Porcello has not accelerated at the same pace as Kershaw, leaving Detroit fans yearning for more. For a guy 6'6 with a rangy body, his career 4.8 strikeouts per nine innings is unremarkable. The Tigers hurler needs to trust his mid-90's fastball more to become the pitcher he should be.

    Price, David - 9-4
    Notes - Have you noticed that four of May's top performers are left-handed? The last in alphabetical order is Tampa Bay's prized possession, David Price. The Nashville native has a nice loose delivery from the three-quarters arm slot and has lively late-moving fastball that occasionally touches 96-97 MPH.

    Verlander, Justin - 13-5
    Notes - Arguably the best pitcher in baseball who is at the peak of his skills, Verlander has old-school power pitchers durability and often will have greater velocity late in games with his electric fastball. The Detroit ace also is intelligent and keeps hitters off-balance by varying his pitch patterns.

    BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

    Floyd, Gavin - 4-11
    Notes - The White Sox right-hander is very close to a .500 record-wise for his big league career, despite always giving the appearance of having better stuff. Floyd, actually has three dependable pitches, but has a tendency to run hot or cold for a series of starts. May has traditionally been a "cold" month for him.

    Hernandez, Felix - 5-13
    Notes - King Felix deserves his fair share of the blame for his rumpled record this month; however, this is not all on him. Except for a couple of surprise seasons in 2009 and 2007, Seattle has not been a good team and their schedule over the past several years in May has featured many of the heavyweights in baseball, contributing to his second-rate record.

    Masterson, Justin - 4-12
    Notes - The Jamaican born right-hander has been on shabby Cleveland teams for the most part. Masterson is a rare side-armed starter and tosses a heavy sinker along with a low 90's fastball. Where he gets into trouble is when he cannot control the movement of his pitches, leading to walks and lineups that are lefty-laden. To start the month, lefties are hitting .281 against Masterson.

    Weaver, Jered - 6-12
    Notes - It is almost inconceivable the Angels top pitcher would ever have a bad month based on his history. Similar to Hernandez, the Halos of Anaheim and Weaver end up playing Boston and the Yankees frequently during this time period, along with division games, which has contributed to a faulty record.

    Wells, Randy - 3-8
    Notes - From the Ripley's Believe It or Not, the 6'6 Cubs pitcher is actually a converted catcher. Wells depends on placement because of his well-below average fastball and will use a change-up more than once to hitters in their time at bat. When Wells cannot spot his pitches, he's throwing room service pitches.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #3
      Angels looking for answers

      April 30, 2012

      The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim came into this season full of expectations that nothing short of a World Series appearance would be a failure. There is a long way to go, but no one in the organization could have imagined them being where they are today, which is last place in the American League West at 7-15, only one game better than baseball’s worst record.
      There was good reason for Las Vegas sports books to feel the Angels should be a contender and one of the favorites to win the World Series at 7/1 odds. The Angels established last season that they had one of the best starting rotations in baseball, which is the starting point in every baseball odds making formula. Then they added 16-game winner C.J. Wilson from last season’s AL champions.

      But the major key in the Angels perception of moving to that next level in 2012 was acquiring Albert Pujols for $240 million from the Cardinals, a team he helped win a second title for last season. Despite his age, the price seemed appropriate for the Angels to get them to the promise land, but so far, Pujols has not produced.

      Through Sunday’s game, Pujols is batting only .216 with no home runs, only 4 RBI’s and a meager ,216 slugging percentage. He’s currently mired in a career worse hitless streak of 21 at-bats. And this is coming from a player who has hit .327 and slugged .612 over his entire career?

      Perhaps the pressure of living up to big contract has made him press a bit more while also still learning the AL pitchers, but whatever it is, it’s spilling over onto his teammates performance. Or maybe, it’s his teammates performance that is spilling over on to him.

      The big shocker, though, is no home runs. That’s what he was paid to do, but Pujols is taking it all in stride and knows the hits will come.

      "I don't try to hit home runs," Pujols said after Sunday's loss at Cleveland. "I know I can hit home runs. Whenever they come, they're going to come. I'm trying to have good, quality at-bats. I'll leave you guys (to) play the little game about how many at-bats I have without hitting a home run. It's part of the game. I don't care about that. It's a long season. At the end, my numbers are going to be there and nobody's going to talk about what happened in April."

      That’s where Pujols is wrong. April is what we’ll be talking about all season with whatever path the Angels take from here on out. It's an extraordinary story just because of the expectations.

      The LVH Super Book has adjusted their odds conservatively at 12/1 just because it is April and a lot can happen, but the underlying theme all season long will be the poor start they got off to and Pujols not hitting a home run.

      If the Angels eventually get to the World Series, the talk will always start with “Despite a poor April”. Should the Angels finish in the second division, it will be, “They just couldn’t get over that April slump.”

      Before giving too much of the blame to Pujols for the Angels slow start, let’s also dish some out to the quiet Halo bats who are hitting .235 collectively, bad enough for second worst in the AL.

      Despite having a great rotation, their bullpen can’t close the door on anyone. Collectively, the Anaheim bullpen is 0-6 with a 5.26 ERA and has converted only two of their eight save opportunities.

      So while Pujols gets much of the blame for the slow start because of all the cash given to him, let’s not forget about the rest of the weak hitters on the team not producing like Howie Kendrick (.250), Vernon Wells (.221) and Peter Bourjos (.167). Jordan Walden also get low marks for his inability to close out games and having no confidence, which is half of the game for any closer.

      In an attempt to spice things up in the lineup, the Angels released Bobby Abreu, sat Bourjos and called up phenom outfielder Mike Trout from the minors. Trout went 0-for-7 in his first at-bats, but that should change soon along with the fortunes of the Angels.

      The best thing for the Angels to do is quit looking at the Rangers, who are nine games ahead, and start trying to get back to .500. Texas looks like a formidable opponent in all facets which makes the Angels looking like their best shot to make the playoffs might be advancing in the wild card game. But like Pujols said, it’s still early.

      Fortunately for the Angels, they place the Twins (6-15) six times in the next 10 days.
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #4
        Hot and Not

        April 30, 2012

        The first month of the 2012 MLB regular season is just about in the books with some surprising teams on the uptick. We’re going to be taking a look at the three most lucrative and costly teams with every passing week, but remember, the regular season is an arduous one with every team going through numerous cycles; play accordingly.
        Money Makers

        Tampa Bay Rays (5-1, $457): The biggest money earners this past week reside in St. Petersburg, FL where Joe Maddon’s Rays have gotten out to a tremendous start to their 2012 campaign. The final week of April started off with a home sweep of the struggling Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. David Price set the tone of the series with a complete game 5-0 shut-out win in Game 1 and it was followed up by Jeremy Hellickson’s third win of the season in Game 2. The Rays pulled the sweep in Game 3 after Brandon Allen came off the bench and hit a walk-off two-run shot in the bottom of the ninth. Tampa Bay then went into Arlington and took two of three from the two-time defending AL champion Texas Rangers.

        On The Docket: Tampa Bay returns home to play its next six against the AL West representative Seattle Mariners and Oakland A’s; Tampa’s 5-1 its L/6 versus division, but it was the only one the Rays owned a losing record against last season (16-18).

        Baltimore Orioles (5-1, $419): Raise your hand if you saw this coming! If your hand is up, you’re either a bold faced liar or you somehow managed to grab ahold of Biff’s Sports Almanac from “Back to the Future.” Regardless, you can’t help but be impressed with what manager Buck Showalter and his staff has done to revitalize this defunct baseball franchise since taking over last season - and the club hasn’t been doing it with smoke and mirrors either! Baltimore’s pitching staff ranks 7th in the league with a 3.06 ERA, and the offense has flexed its power stroke launching the third most HRs overall (30). Last week, they swept the Blue Jays at home before taking two of three from the A’s; the last coming in an exhilarating walk-off fashion.

        On The Docket: It’s litmus test week for the O’s who must travel to Yankee Stadium and Fenway Park over the course of the next seven days; venues they check in a combined 12-28 in their L/40 combined visits.

        Los Angeles Dodgers (4-2, $216): Could the Dodgers be this year’s version of the Arizona Diamondbacks? Sure, LA didn’t bring up the rear of the NL West last season in winning 82 games, but they have that “can’t do anything wrong” mentality about them right now – the same mantra the D-Backs played with in cruising to the NL West pennant a short year ago. Though Matt Kemp has gotten out to an unreal start, the key to the Dodgers early season success has been on the heels of its starting pitching staff and bullpen. LA’s 15 quality starts through 22 games ranks fifth, while the pen has already combined for nine saves between Javy Guerra and Kenley Jansen.

        On The Docket: The Dodgers moved to 10-2 at home last week with the sweep of the Nats, but now it’s back to the road to face the division rival Rockies and recently surging Chicago Cubs.

        Money Burners

        Detroit Tigers (1-5, -$598): It was a sobering week for Tigers fans to say the least! Manager Jimmy Leyland’s squad started off the week with a shocking sweep at home against a Mariners squad that had a perfect game thrown at them heading into the series opener and proceeded to give up a combined 21 runs throughout the series. That was followed up by dropping two of three at Yankee Stadium – Verlander looked mortal giving up seven hits (2 HR) and four ER in the 7-6 Game 1 loss. The Tigers have been erratic offensively (#19 with a .243 batting average), and that paired with a pitching staff that possesses a 4.27 ERA (#24) finds them a .500 ball club heading into May.

        On The Docket: Detroit will get to reassert itself within the division this week with games scheduled to go versus Kansas City and Chicago, which is a good thing considering they went 50-22 in 2011 and stands 4-2 this season vs. division rivals.

        Miami Marlins (1-5, -$555): Manager Ozzie Guillen’s stay in Miami has gotten out to a rocky start with the Fish struggling and him already serving a five-game suspension due to his Fidel Castro remarks. The Marlins once again bring up the rear of the NL East and are the only member of that division yet to tally double-digit wins to date. The squad possesses just one win against divisional opposition in eight tries, and after closing out its four-game series with the Diamondbacks Monday afternoon, will have to hit the road for nine straight games – Miami has won just two of its 11 games as a visitor so far (-$690).

        On The Docket: Miami’s 3.24 runs per game average (#26) and .225 batting average (#27) don’t look to be getting much better with them invading AT&T and Petco Park this week – two of the toughest run producing ballparks in the Bigs!

        Minnesota Twins (1-4, -$310): The Twinkies might be hitting for a better average this season (#6 at .266) with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau fully healthy, but the results have largely been the same with the squad once again bringing up the rear of the AL Central. When you average just 4.00 runs per game yourself (#17), it’s extremely hard to win games when your pitching staff owns a collective 5.69 ERA – the absolute worst mark in the league. Manager Ron Gardenhire has gotten just four quality starts from his starting pitching staff, and though the bullpen is playing better than the league averages in OBP, SLG, and OPS allowed, it’s barley been called upon to win a game with Matt Capps coming through in all four of his save opportunities.

        On The Docket: Minnesota will travel to the left coast to match wits with the Angels and Mariners over the course of the next week. It’s just 16-35 its L/51 on the road having gone 5-5 its L/10 in Angel Stadium (averaged 5.5 RPG) and 4-6 its L/10 in Safeco (averaged 2.2 RPG).
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #5
          Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

          05/02/12 5-*1-*0 83.33% +*2615 Detail

          Milwaukee - 6:35 PM ET Milwaukee +106 500
          San Diego - Over 6.5 500

          Baltimore - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore +164 500
          NY Yankees - Under 9.5 500

          Arizona - 7:05 PM ET Washington -117 500
          Washington - Over 7 500

          Oakland - 7:10 PM ET Boston -178 500
          Boston - Over 8.5 500

          Seattle - 7:10 PM ET Seattle +185 500
          Tampa Bay - Over 7.5 500

          Philadelphia - 7:10 PM ET Philadelphia -107 500
          Atlanta - Under 6 500

          Chi. Cubs - 7:10 PM ET Chi. Cubs +153 500
          Cincinnati - Under 8 500

          Cleveland - 8:10 PM ET Cleveland +120 500
          Chi. White Sox - Under 8 500

          Pittsburgh - 8:15 PM ET Pittsburgh +158 500
          St. Louis - Over 7 500

          Minnesota - 10:05 PM ET LA Angels -235 500
          LA Angels - Over 7.5 500

          Miami - 10:15 PM ET San Francisco -119 500
          San Francisco - Under 7 500
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • #6
            get them hardball plays in BUM.......


            Don't make me go Cajun on your Ass!

            Comment


            • #7
              I'm playing the O's tonight, too, Bum. I'm glad to see you like em!

              That kid that's starting for Baltimore is probably gonna be great in this league. Showalter's doing a helluva job, too!

              Thanks, Bum! Good luck tonight!

              Comment

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