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**StarDust Bum** · 04-28-2012, 12:54 PM

Angels And Twins Take Over Fade List

The MLB season is a long slog that will continue into early October. As we approach the end of April, we’ve only completed just over 10 percent of the schedule.

But shrewd handicappers can find teams to “fade” at any time of the campaign. And oftentimes, the first month of the season offers some of the best wagering bargains of the season.

A combination of overhype and underachievement can prove an irresistible combination for fattening a bankroll...as the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are proving thus far.

The raw numbers speak for themselves regarding the Halos, who are in danger of losing touch in the AL West with the high-flying Texas Rangers before we reach Cinco De Mayo.

To wit: the Angels have been left at the starting gate, losing 12 of their first 18 games, and found themselves 8½ games in arrears of the Rangers as of the morning of April 26. That’s also buried the Halos beneath the A’s and Mariners in the basement of the AL West.

Thus, it’s not much of a surprise what poor wagering value the Angels have been offering. After losing at Tampa Bay on Wednesday night, the Halos were at a staggering -1146 units on the Money Line, by far the worst such performance in the bigs. Their -618 units on the Run line wasn’t much better.

What’s wrong with the Angels?

Conventional wisdom is suggesting it is the fault of the slow start of Albert Pujols, the high-priced free agent from St. Louis who was supposed to single-handedly revive the Halo offense. But we suggest that Angels’ early woes stem from issues much deeper than Pujols’ early numbers, which include no homers and a mere four RBIs, a.222 BA and .282 OBP through the first 18 games.

The entire Angels lineup is pressing, reflected in an 0-for-10 mark with runners in scoring position during Wednesday’s loss to the Rays. Pujols might be more guilty than anyone, having gone hitless in five straight games for the first time in his career after the Wednesday setback at The Trop.

Manager Mike Scioscia is also faced with a dilemma regarding Mark Trumbo, his best power source last season with 29 homers but displaced from his 1B job by Pujols. Kendry Morales, back from injury, has been getting the bulk of the DH work, while Scioscia has toyed with the idea of making Trumbo his everyday third baseman. But there are legit defensive concerns regarding Trumbo at the hot corer, and Scioscia has mostly been using Alberto Callaspo at third.

Hard as it is to believe, Trumbo has played in only 11 of the 18 games thus far. Moreover, he’s been one of the few Angels who have been hitting, with a .324 BA when he gets the chance to hit.

A closer look at the lineup reveals more cracks in the foundation. The corner outfielders, Vernon Wells and Torii Hunter, and, on occasion, Bobby Abreu, have lots of age, forcing CF Peter Bourjos to have to cover a lot of ground defensively. The Angels, terrors on the basepaths a few years ago, are also not stealing bases, with only nine through the first 18 games. The attack badly needs a table-setter to emerge.

Moreover, the staff, a strength in 2011, has been a disappointment thus far. Though ace Jered Weaver and high-priced ex-Ranger free-agent addition C.J. Wilson have performed well, that hasn’t been the case for Dan Haren (who has thrown a bit better in his last two starts) and Ervin Santana, who have failed to notch a win in their first eight combined starts. Scioscia is also without a reliable fifth starter, for the moment gambling with journeyman Jerome Williams whose 7.71 ERA confirms that problem at the back end of the rotation.

Meanwhile, the bullpen has not been up to par, already blowing three save opportunities. Closer Jordan Walden, who faltered after the All-Star break last summer, has been unconvincing in limited opportunities.

After finishing the midweek set at Tampa Bay, the Angels head to Cleveland for a weekend series with the surging Indians. Let’s see if the Angels continue with their money-burning trend.

Another side we suggest “fading” until further notice is Minnesota. While we were somewhat bullish in March on the Twins’ chances for a big bounce-back season, let’s just say our enthusiasm has been somewhat tempered since Minnesota has been struggling even worse than the Angels, as the Twins’ 5-14 record through Wednesday action suggests. Minnesota is staying out of the AL Central cellar only because of Kansas City’s recent 11-game losing streak (which has since concluded).

The Twins, not surprisingly, are also providing poor value on the Money Line, standing at -595 units heading into the weekend “showdown” series at Target Field vs. the Royals. Minnesota has not been much better on the Run Line, at -422 units.

We had expected that the healthy returns of 1B/DH Justin Morneau, C Joe Mauer and CF Denard Span would trigger a recovery after the Twins collapsed to a 63-99 mark a year ago. They’ve been back in the lineup, and the addition of OF Josh Willingham has proven a nice bonus.

But the Minnesota offense is missing the likes of Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel, who departed in free agency after last season. Only Texas and the New York Yankees among AL teams have stranded more runners than the Twins, who cannot afford to miss those scoring opportunities as can the more-potent Rangers and Yanks.

Too many holes remain in the lineup, which could badly use some power from the first and third base positions. Morneau is going to be mostly used at DH after his concussion issues, but 1B Chris Parmalee has yet to hit a dinger, and the 3B combo of Danny Valencia and Sean Burroughs has been woeful, with only one homer and eight RBIs between them to go with a combined .192 BA.

Meanwhile, news from the pitching staff has not been much better, more so since the news that Scott Baker would miss the entire season after recent Tommy John surgery. The staff ERA is a whopping 5.76 through the first 19 games, with only Boston worse in the big leagues.

The rotation is also laboring badly, with Carl Pavano’s 4.73 ERA the best of the bunch, and no help in sight as manager Ron Gardenhire gambles with the likes of young Anthony Swarzak and Liam Hendricks. Barring some very unlikely trades, Gardy has to sink or swim with what he has on hand.

The bullpen could also be missing long-time closer Joe Nathan, although combustible Matt Capps has at least not yet blown any saves in four chances.

The midweek demolition job administered by the Red Sox, who scored 24 runs at Target Field in their three-game sweep, amplifies the concerns Gardenhire has for the pitching staff. With the available options, we’re not sure things are going to get better before they get worse for the Twins.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-28-2012, 12:57 PM

Kershaw & LA Dodgers Host Washington Nationals

It's certainly a very winnable three-teamer, even in the unpredictable world of baseball.

Three of the game's best pitchers – if not the very best three – will be on the hill for Friday night action that stretches from coast-to-coast on a full 15-game card. Two will be at home as hefty chalk and another on the road as a moderate favorite. Combined, their teams are 10-2 in their dozen trips to the hill, and they own a 1.61 ERA with 72 strikeouts in nearly 84 innings of work.

We'll kick things off in Philadelphia where Roy Halladay begins the show for the Phillies opposite Paul Maholm and the Chicago Cubs in the opener of a 3-game set. The contest gets underway at Citizens Bank Park with a 7:05 p.m. (ET) first pitch with the Phillies laying -240 and an even seven for the total ('under' -125).

Halladay and the Phils come off a 5-5 road trip that was only that good thanks to taking the final two games in Arizona. Philadelphia will be home just for four and then head out for a 6-game tour through Atlanta and Washington. Taking at least three of four is what is expected of the Phillies in this series, and that means starting with a triumph behind Halladay.

Halladay's only off-day this season was a great performance for a mere mortal pitcher – seven innings, two runs, five hits and five strikeouts in a 5-1 loss at San Diego last Saturday. He is working on a string of 43-1/3 innings of regular season action without allowing a homer, and if you include his postseason appearances last October, he has only served up two bleacher bombs in his last 105-2/3 frames. Both came off Lance Berkman's bat.

Halladay has struggled in a few outings at Wrigley Field, but his one home start against the Cubs since joining the Phils was a dandy last June, seven innings of 6-hit, 9-K shutout ball as healthy -210 chalk.

Maholm will be facing the Phils for the first time in a Cubs jersey. Seven previous assignments against Philadelphia netted the lefty a 4.50 ERA with the Pirates going 4-3 in those games. He got knocked around pretty good in his first two outings this year vs. the Brewers and Cardinals, working four innings and allowing six runs in each game. But he bounced back strong with a win last Saturday against Cincinnati, throwing six frames with just a single run coming plateward in Chicago's 6-1 triumph.

Tigers & Yankees Begin Bronx Set
The Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees are both taking a backseat in the American League to the Texas Rangers' hot start, but their pitching duel in New York on Friday night isn't playing second fiddle to anyone on the baseball betting card. Game time in the Bronx is 7:05 p.m. (ET) with Justin Verlander taking the mound for Detroit opposite New York's Ivan Nova.

Verlander could easily be 4-0 with a little help from his offense and bullpen. Indeed, bettors who have been following the 'under' in Verlander's starts are 4-0. Detroit backers in those games are 3-1 and nearly 1.5 units in the black. The big right-hander will be looking for his first win at new Yankee Stadium with the Tigers 0-3 in Verlander's previous three starts there (4.00 ERA).

Nova simply wins regardless of where he pitches. He moved to 3-0 in as many starts with a 6-2 triumph at Boston last Friday, leaving the Yankees 22-8 in his last 30 assignments (+10.5 units). Friday will be the Dominican's first regular season start vs. the Tigers, a scoreless 2-inning relief stint Nova's only previous experience against them along with his work in last October's ALDS.

Detroit opened as -135 to -140 chalk for Friday's contest with an 8½-run total shaded to the 'under.'

NL East & West Leaders Collide In Tinseltown
Picked to finish no better than the middle of their respective divisions, the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers have instead jumped out to the lead in the NL East and NL West. The two frontrunners will begin a 3-game set at Chavez Ravine on Friday (10:10 p.m. ET), with the Dodgers sending their ace Clayton Kershaw against Washington's Ross Detwiler in a matchup of left-handers.

Backing Kershaw and the Dodgers in this one will cost you a buck seventy-five. The 6-run scoreboard hurdle was leaning to the 'over' (-120).

Los Angeles is a perfect 4-0 behind Kershaw to open the campaign, though the defending NL Cy Young winner just picked up his first victory last Saturday in Houston with seven shutout innings. Kershaw's first major league victory came against the Nationals in July 2008 at home, and the Dodgers are 2-1 in his three career assignments at home vs. Washington.

Washington was still finishing up their series in San Diego on Thursday before heading to LA. The Nats were a slight favorite in the contest behind Edwin Jackson. Edinson Volquez was slated to start for the Pads with 6-6½ run totals being offered.

Detwiler is off to a 2-0 start with a microscopic 0.56 ERA, and could be 3-0 if his defense hadn't failed him against Cincinnati about 10 days ago. This will be just his second career start against the Dodgers, with the Nationals winning the previous one way back in 2009. The former Missouri State star has been limited to about 80 pitches per outing thus far.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-28-2012, 01:00 PM

Diamond Trends - Saturday

April 28, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Cardinals are 0-11 since August 13, 2011 as a favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $1635 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Diamondbacks are 9-0 OU since June 10, 2011 when playing a night game as a road dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $900 when playing the over.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Dodgers are 0-11-1 OU since June 03, 2009 when Chad Billingsley starts after the results of his last three starts were LLW for a net profit of $1100 when playing the under.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

The Indians are 0-13 (-2.2 rpg) since April 19, 2011 as a dog when they are off a night game win in which they came back from a deficit.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Nationals are 0-11 since April 26, 2011 when playing a night game after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits in a night game for a net profit of $1200 when playing against.

The Rangers are 13-0 since April 27, 2011 at home after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent as a favorite for a net profit of $1300

**StarDust Bum** · 04-28-2012, 01:03 PM

Lohse, Cards look to dominate Brewers again

MILWAUKEE BREWERS (9-11)

at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (13-7)

First pitch: Saturday, 1:05 p.m. EDT
Line: St. Louis -150, Milwaukee +140, Total: 7½

Kyle Lohse looks to continue his unbelievable April when the Cardinals look to beat up division rival Milwaukee again on Saturday afternoon.

Nobody in the majors has pitched better than Lohse in 2012, as he is 3-0 with a 0.99 ERA and 0.66 WHIP in his four starts. He has allowed one run or less in all four of these outings, and is now an incredible 13-2 with a 2.46 ERA in 24 April starts in a St. Louis uniform. Milwaukee will counter with right-hander Marco Estrada whose first start of the season was tremendous (5 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, career-high 9 K). But he has never enjoyed facing the Redbirds in limited duty, allowing five runs in 7.1 innings. The Cardinals have dominated this series recently, winning 13 of the past 17 meetings. And if St. Louis hits like it did in Friday’s series opener, 15 hits in a 13-1 blowout, the Brewers have little chance to make this a slugfest. Take the chalk and ST. LOUIS to win again on Saturday.

This strong FoxSheets trend also sides with the Cards:

MILWAUKEE is 78-173 (31.1%, -53.7 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better since 1997. The average score was MILWAUKEE 3.6, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*).

Estrada (0-0, 2.45 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) began the season in the bullpen, but was inserted into the rotation last Saturday after Chris Narveson suffered a season-ending rotator cuff injury. He probably could’ve thrown a couple more innings in that no-decision against Colorado because his pitch count was just 78 when he exited. Estrada has now made 10 starts in his career, going 3-3 with a pedestrian 4.35 ERA. But his WHIP is a strong 1.12 in this span, and he has fanned 49 in 51.2 innings as a starter. Even though the Cardinals have batted .323 against Estrada (10-for-31), his control has been spot on, with 9 K and just one walk in those 7.1 innings.

Lohse has pitched at least six innings in each of his four starts, walking a total of two batters in his 27.1 frames. After recording just five strikeouts over his first two starts, he has fanned 11 over his past two outings. Lohse has usually pitched well at home in St. Louis, going 21-15 with a 3.70 ERA since joining the Cards. He threw seven shutout frames in his lone home start on April 17, holding the Reds to just four hits and one walk, while fanning six. But he is just 4-8 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 101.1 career innings versus Milwaukee in the regular season. Although Lohse held the Brewers to a .221 BA in three starts last year, going 1-2 with a 2.37 ERA, Milwaukee beat him in the postseason. The Brew Crew scored three runs on six hits in just 4.1 innings in a 4-2 win in Game 4 of the NLCS.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-28-2012, 01:06 PM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, April 28

Hot pitchers
-- Lohse is 3-0, 0.99 in four starts this season. Estrada allowed one run in five IP in his first '12 start.
-- Cueto is 2-0, 2.13 in four starts this season.
-- Bedard has a 3.00 RA in four starts but is 0-4 because Pirates scored a total of three runs in the four games.
-- Kennedy is 3-0, 3.86 in four starts this season. ASanchez is 1-0, 3.26 in three starts this season.
-- Strasburg is 2-0, 1.08 in four starts this season.
-- Bass has a 2.94 RA in three starts this season.

-- Haren has a 1.93 RA in his last two starts, but Angels are 0-4 in his starts, with bullpen losing three of the four games. Gomez is 1-0, 2.46 in two starts this season, but lasted total of just 7.1 IP in the two starts (ejected in one).
-- Smyly has a 1.69 RA in three starts for Detroit.
-- Ross is 1-0, 2.19 in two starts this season. WChen is 1-0, 2.31 in his last couple starts.
-- Peavy is 3-0, 1.19 in his last three starts.
-- Lewis is 2-0, 2.02 in four starts this season.

Cold pitchers
-- Harrell is 0-1, 5.74 in his last three starts.
-- Blanton is 0-2, 8.18 in his last couple starts. Wells allowed two runs in five IP in his first '12 start.
-- Delgado has a 5.74 RA in three starts this season.
-- Gee is 1-2, 5.68 in three starts this season. Guthrie allowed 12 runs in 10.1 IP in two home starts.
-- Billingsley is 0-1, 10.24 in his last couple starts.
-- Lincecum is 1-2, 8.20 in four starts this season.

-- FGarcia is 0-1, 10.50 in three starts this season.
-- Morrow is 1-1, 5.14 in his last three starts. Millwood is 0-1, 11.58 in his last couple starts.
-- BChen is 0-2, 3.79 in his last three starts. Marquis has a 7.15 RA in his first two starts for Minnesota.
-- Lester is 0-1, 9.00 in his last couple starts.
-- Niemann is 1-2, 5.87 in three starts this season.

Hot teams
-- Braves won 13 of their last 17 games. Pittsburgh is 3-2 in second game of series if they lose the opener.
-- Cardinals won five of their last six home games.
-- Mets won three of their last four games. Colorado won five of its last seven home games.
-- Nationals won four of their last six games.
-- Giants won six of their last nine games.

-- Royals won their last three games, scoring 19 runs.
-- Bronx won three of their last four home games.
-- Indians won nine of their last thirteen games.
-- Mariners won last four games, scoring 30 runs.
-- Orioles/A's both won four of their last five games.
-- Texas won 11 of its last 14 games. Rays won their last six games, allowing 12 runs.
-- Red Sox won their last five games, scoring 44 runs.

Cold teams
-- Cubs lost five of their last six road games. Phillies lost three of last four at home.
-- Marlins lost their last six games, scoring seven runs. Arizona lost seven of its last ten games.
-- Cincinnati is 0-3 in second game of series if it lost the opener. Astros lost six of their last nine road games.
-- Brewers lost last five road games, allowing 40 runs.
-- Dodgers lost three of their last five games.
-- Padres lost five of their seven road games.

-- Detroit lost seven of its last eight games.
-- Toronto lost its last four games, scoring eight runs.
-- Angels lost eight of their last nine road games.
-- White Sox lost six of their last seven home games.
-- Minnesota lost its last six games, allowing 41 runs.

Totals
-- Over is 4-2-1 in Cubs' road games this season.
-- Six of last eight Arizona games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Cincinnati games went over the total.
-- Under is 15-3-1 in Pirate games, 3-6-1 in last ten Atlanta games.
-- Five of last six Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Under is 7-4 in Colorado's last eleven games.
-- Seven of last nine Dodger games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 4-2-1 in San Francisco's home games.

-- Under is 10-5-2 in last seventeen Detroit games.
-- Over is 4-0-1 in Seattle's last five games.
-- Eight of last nine Cleveland games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight Baltimore home games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last eight Tampa Bay road games went over total.
-- Six of last seven Boston road games went over the total.
-- Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven Kansas City games.

Umpires
-- Mil-StL-- Under is 15-10 in last 25 Barksdale games.
-- Hst-Cin-- Underdogs won last four McClelland games.
-- Chi-Phil-- Since start of 2010, under is 41-28 in Iassogna games.
-- Pitt-Atl-- Three of last four Danley games stayed under.
-- Az-Mia-- Three of four Hoye games stayed under, with underdogs winning the last three.
-- NY-Col-- Road team won all three LBarrett games this year.
-- SD-SF-- Home team is 5-0 this season with Tschida behind plate.
-- Wsh-LA-- Over is 18-15-1 in last 34 Carlson games.

-- LA-Clev-- Home side is 22-15 in last 37 Culbreth games.
-- KC-Min-- Underdogs won last four Gorman games.
-- Det-NY-- Favorites won all three Fletcher games this season.
-- Sea-Tor-- Home side won seven of last ten Gonzalez games.
-- A's-Balt-- Four of five Cooper games stayed under the total.
-- Bos-Chi-- Home side won three of four Reyburn games this year.
-- TB-Tex-- Road team won all three Wendelstedt games this year.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-28-2012, 01:17 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

04/27/12 17-*12-*1 58.62% +*1650 Detail
04/26/12 7-*8-*1 46.67% -*625 Detail
04/25/12 15-*17-*0 46.88% -*1485 Detail
04/24/12 13-*17-*0 43.33% -*2500 Detail
04/23/12 5-*15-*0 25.00% -*5555 Detail
04/22/12 12-*12-*0 50.00% -*380 Detail
04/21/12 21-*11-*0 65.63% +*4910 Detail
04/20/12 15-*11-*1 57.69% +*1380 Detail
04/19/12 17-*6-*1 73.91% +*5910 Detail
04/18/12 16-*14-*0 53.33% +*1125 Detail
04/17/12 16-*13-*1 55.17% +*445 Detail
04/16/12 11-*8-*1 57.89% +*1135 Detail
04/15/12 15-*15-*0 50.00% -*605 Detail
04/14/12 17-*11-*2 60.71% +*3405 Detail
04/13/12 13-*17-*0 43.33% -*2560 Detail
04/12/12 9-*8-*1 52.94% +*20 Detail
04/11/12 16-*14-*0 53.33% +*1145 Detail
04/10/12 13-*7-*1 65.00% +*2885 Detail
04/09/12 13-*10-*0 56.52% +*1880 Detail
04/08/12 13-*14-*0 48.15% -*640 Detail
04/07/12 15-*14-*0 51.72% -*440 Detail
04/06/12 3-*6-*1 33.33% -*1775 Detail

Totals 292-*260-*11 52.90% +9325

Saturday, April 28

Game Score Status Pick Amount

LA Angels - 1:05 PM ET LA Angels -136 500
Cleveland - Over 7.5 500

Milwaukee - 1:05 PM ET St. Louis -147 500
St. Louis - Under 7.5 500

Kansas City - 1:10 PM ET Kansas City -118 500
Minnesota - Over 8.5 500

Detroit - 4:05 PM ET Detroit +113 500
NY Yankees - Over 10.5 500

Seattle - 4:07 PM ET Seattle +168 500
Toronto - Over 8.5 500

Houston - 4:10 PM ET Cincinnati -187 500
Cincinnati - Over 7.5 500

Oakland - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore -126 500
Baltimore - Under 8 500

Chi. Cubs - 7:05 PM ET Chi. Cubs +137 500
Philadelphia - Under 8 500

Boston - 7:10 PM ET Boston -107 500
Chi. White Sox - Over 7.5 500

Pittsburgh - 7:10 PM ET Atlanta -139 500
Atlanta - Under 7.5 500

Arizona - 7:10 PM ET Miami -121 500
Miami - Under 7 500

Tampa Bay - 8:05 PM ET Texas -160 500
Texas - Under 9.5 500

NY Mets - 8:10 PM ET NY Mets +128 500
Colorado - Over 9.5 500

San Diego - 9:05 PM ET San Diego +149 500
San Francisco - Over 6.5 500

Washington - 9:10 PM ET Washington -114 500
LA Dodgers - Under 6 500

**Kaptain** · 04-28-2012, 02:22 PM

gl BUM thanks

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