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**Udog** · 04-12-2012, 08:18 AM

Thursday's betting tips: D-Rose may play vs. Heat

Weather to watch

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers – As of Wednesday evening, 15 mph winds were expected to be blowing in from right field.

Who’s hot

NBA: Detroit has covered in six of its last eight meetings with Charlotte.

NBA: The under is 5-1 in Chicago’s last six following an ATS win.

NHL: Washington has won four of its last five overall and five of its last seven trips to Boston.

NHL: Phoenix has won five straight.

MLB: Tampa Bay is 8-3 in Jeff Niemann’s last 11 starts.

Who’s not

NBA: The under is 2-6 in Charlotte’s last eight home games.

NBA: Miami is 6-13-2 against the spread in its last 21 games in Chicago.

NHL: San Jose has won just four of its last 16 road games.

NHL: The over is 3-8 in Chicago’s last 11 road games.

MLB: The over is 6-16 in Washington’s last 22.

Key stat

15.2 – The Chicago Blackhawks’ power play converted only 15.2 percent of its chances with the man advantage in the regular season, ranking 25th in the NHL. Coach Joel Quenneville looks to be putting all of his eggs in one basket to solve the problem ahead of Thursday’s Game 1 at Phoenix. Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Sharp and Marian Hossa practiced with defenseman Brent Seabrook on the club’s No. 1 unit this week. Toews, who had 57 points in 59 games this year, has been out since Feb. 19 with a concussion but may return Thursday.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls – Rose practiced Wednesday on his sprained ankle and there’s a chance he could suit up for Thursday’s big tilt against Miami. Rose sat out Tuesday’s game against the Knicks but coach Tom Thibodeau said he could have played if needed. The reigning MVP has missed 23 games this season.

Game of the day

Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls (N/A)

Notable quotable

"It's very embarrassing. I think it's everything. (Being) mentally (and) physically, prepared to compete in an NBA game ... But we've got to make a decision as a group, how we want to go forward. This is where character's revealed." – Detroit Pistons coach Lawrence Frank about his team’s three-game losing streak heading into Thursday’s game against Charlotte.

Notes and tips

Five-time heritage RBC champion Davis Love III has withdrawn from the tournament. Love committed to the event Friday, hopeful he could play through a cracked rib that caused him to withdraw from the Arnold Palmer Invitational last month. Love has played in the tournament 26 straight seasons, winning in 1987, 1991, 1992, 1998 and 2003. The 47-year-old has made more than $2.6 million at Harbour Town Golf Links throughout his career. The event begins Thursday in Hilton Head, South Carolina.

San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey was out of the starting lineup for Wednesday's game against Colorado due to a case of shingles. Hector Sanchez started in place of Posey, who was available to hit. Giants manager Brucy Bochy said Posey has a painful rash on his back, left side and under his left armpit. Shingles is contracted from the same virus that causes chickenpox and can be extremely painful. It can last from two to six weeks.

St. Louis goaltender Jaroslav Halak will start Game 1 against the San Jose Sharks Thursday night. Halak has split time in the crease with Brian Elliott this season, but Elliott is banged up with an upper-body injury. Halak has a 1.97 goals-against average with a .926 save percentage. St. Louis is set as a -155 favorite.

Tampa Bay Rays right-handed pitcher Jeremy Hellickson was struck in the side of the head by a ball during batting practice Wednesday morning, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Hellickson had to be carted out of the stadium by paramedics and was taken to a local hospital to get checked out. The 25-year-old wasn't bleeding and didn't lose consciousness, according to Rays manager Joe Maddon.

**Udog** · 04-12-2012, 08:19 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

-- Tim Lincecum got knocked out in third inning at Coors Field, shortest stint of his big league career, as Giants got crushed 17-8 in Denver.

-- Highlight of broadcast was Giant announcers ripping a guy who caught a foul ball and didn't give it to his girlfriend, then having the girl take his picture with the ball. When its 16-7 in the fifth inning, anything goes.

-- Penguins blew 3-0 lead, lost 4-3 in OT to the Flyers, as Voracek scored 2:23 into overtime; NHL playoffs are terrific, especially OT games.

-- Knicks scored the last six points, won 111-107 in Milwaukee, getting a leg up on making the NBA playoffs.

-- Nashville beat the Red Wings 3-2, grab first game in that series.

-- Out west, #8-seed Kings scored with 3:14 left, won 4-2 at Vancouver; Canucks worked six months for home ice edge, then lost it in three hours.

***************

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind..........

13) Rough start to season for umpire Tim Welke; first two games he was behind the plate went 16 innings, then 12 innings. Calling balls/strikes is an underrated thing; has to be physically demanding, umpires aren't exactly as young or as athletic as the players.

Over first two games, Welke looked at 967 pitches thrown to 228 batters; umps don't get to sit down in between innings. Its a tough job. On average, a big league ballgame has 280-290 pitches thrown.

12) Eight games shown on one screen; gotta love the Game Mix channel on DirecTV (#720). Can keep up with a lot without using your thumb.

11) For first time I can remember, Mets aren't on local radio, but Red Sox are; if you're not from upstate NY, Albany is three hours north of NYC and three hours west of Boston. We live in a frontrunning culture, so Mets' fan base has eroded, while the Bronx-Boston rivalry is all people seem to care about. Can still listen to Met games if you can get WFAN from NYC on the radio at night. Interesting decision, replacing the Mets with Boston.

10) For first time ever, every NHL playoff game is on regular cable TV, so thats good. Just have to find out where some of these stations are. League is quietly doing a better job of getting in the public eye.

9) SMU is trying like hell to lure Rick Majerus to Dallas, offering him as much as $2M a year; Mustangs are headed to the Big East, and if they don't improve an awful lot very quickly, they're going to be embarrassed when they move into their new league. SMU isn't even any good in C-USA.

8) Colorado State was all set to hire former Oregon coach Ernie Kent, then someone in the CSU administration vetoed Kent, so the Rams turned to the former Southern Miss/Iowa State coach Larry Eustachy, who got Southern Miss back to the NCAAs this year- he is a very good coach and Colorado State has a very good team coming back next year.

7) Coming into Wednesday's game, A's had a cruddy team batting average of .206; sad thing, eight teams were worse off than them. Hard to believe.

6) Rooting for a small market team makes fantasy baseball necessary; how else to stay interested? Some teams have $100M payrolls; some teams use Jonny Gomes as their #5 hitter. At least if my fantasy team is awful, its my fault and I can try to fix it. Can't do anything to help the A's.

5) Edmonton Oilers will have 1st pick in NHL Draft for third year in row; if they use thoe picks wisely, they could build themselves a damn good team, kind of like what the Tampa Bay Rays have done. Sometimes, being awful is better in the long run than being mediocre all the time.

4) When I go to Las Vegas, often stayed at PH Towers behind the Planet Hollywood casino/hotel, but I see that Hilton has taken over the towers and has raised room rates quite a bit, so won't be staying there anymore.

3) Aggravation Department: Burger King at corner of Fuller/Western, near where I work, never gives me what I order at the drive-thru window, as in, never. I ask for two sausage biscuits with egg and cheese, without doubt, at least one of them will be on a croissant. Maybe both. I let it slide couple of times, then I said something and the woman laughed, like it was a joke or something. What it is is bad business. Just give me what I order, OK?

2) NHL's media guide is tremendous source of information; lot of good stuff in there. Hockey playoffs are lot of fun; way better than the NBA's version.

1) Three quick points about Arkansas firing Bobby Petrino:
a) He is 60-38 against the spread as a college head coach. Eventually, he'll get another college job. Might take couple years.
b) The woman involved better get fired too. How is she less guilty?
c) This is where Petrino will regret screwing the Falcons; doubtful an NFL team will give him a coordinators' job right away. Not a dependable guy.

**Udog** · 04-12-2012, 08:44 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Washington at Boston
The Capitals look to build on their 5-1 record in their last 6 games as an underdog of +150 to +200. Washington is the pick (+165) according to Dunkel, which has the Capitals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+165). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, APRIL 12

Game 57-58: Ottawa at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.156; NY Rangers 12.015
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-180); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-180); Over

Game 59-60: Washington at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 13.112; Boston 12.114
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-185); 5
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+165); Under

Game 61-62: San Jose at St. Louis (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 10.994; St. Louis 11.703
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-155); 5
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-155); Over

Game 63-64: Chicago at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.393; Phoenix 11.842
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-125); 5
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+105); Under

**Udog** · 04-12-2012, 08:44 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Thursday, April 12

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OTTAWA (41-31-0-10, 92 pts.) at NY RANGERS (51-24-0-7, 109 pts.) - 4/12/2012, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY RANGERS are 51-30 ATS (+84.9 Units) in all games this season.
NY RANGERS are 26-13 ATS (+9.8 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 16-10 ATS (+26.5 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
NY RANGERS are 164-173 ATS (-92.3 Units) in home games second half of the season since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 24-32 ATS (-24.0 Units) in home games when playing with 3 or more days rest since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 77-107 ATS (-83.1 Units) in home games after allowing 4 goals or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 6-6 (+2.0 Units) against the spread versus NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
NY RANGERS is 6-6-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.0 Units)

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WASHINGTON (42-32-0-8, 92 pts.) at BOSTON (49-29-0-4, 102 pts.) - 4/12/2012, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 16-4 ATS (+10.5 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 26-12 ATS (+5.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 18-19 ATS (-13.4 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 7-5 (+1.5 Units) against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 7-5-0 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.2 Units)

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SAN JOSE (43-29-0-10, 96 pts.) at ST LOUIS (49-22-0-11, 109 pts.) - 4/12/2012, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE is 43-39 ATS (-15.5 Units) in all games this season.
SAN JOSE is 6-14 ATS (-10.3 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5 or less this season.
SAN JOSE is 10-18 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games second half of the season this season.
SAN JOSE is 5-11 ATS (-10.4 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent this season.
SAN JOSE is 16-21 ATS (-15.2 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
ST LOUIS is 77-57 ATS (+12.0 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest since 1996.
SAN JOSE is 100-61 ATS (+24.3 Units) in April games since 1996.
SAN JOSE is 160-171 ATS (+367.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 6-6 (+1.3 Units) against the spread versus SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 6-6-0 straight up against SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.0 Units)

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CHICAGO (45-26-0-11, 101 pts.) at PHOENIX (42-27-0-13, 97 pts.) - 4/12/2012, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in road games revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 137-119 ATS (-17.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 188-163 ATS (+20.8 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
PHOENIX is 19-7 ATS (+26.1 Units) after a 3 game unbeaten streak over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 25-20 ATS (+2.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CHICAGO is 310-329 ATS (+696.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
PHOENIX is 8-16 ATS (+24.1 Units) in home games after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 8-4 (+6.6 Units) against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 8-4-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.1 Units)

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Friday, April 13

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NEW JERSEY (48-28-0-6, 102 pts.) at FLORIDA (38-26-0-18, 94 pts.) - 4/13/2012, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW JERSEY is 48-33 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games this season.
NEW JERSEY is 27-18 ATS (+6.4 Units) second half of the season this season.
NEW JERSEY is 22-13 ATS (+35.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
NEW JERSEY is 15-7 ATS (+22.0 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more this season.
NEW JERSEY is 15-8 ATS (+6.7 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season.
NEW JERSEY is 27-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 80-118 ATS (+212.7 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5 or less since 1996.
FLORIDA is 32-58 ATS (+104.9 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 2-11 ATS (+13.1 Units) on Friday nights this season.
FLORIDA is 8-21 ATS (+32.1 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 6-6 (+1.5 Units) against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA is 6-6-0 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.5 Units)

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PHILADELPHIA (47-26-0-9, 103 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (51-25-0-6, 108 pts.) - 4/13/2012, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 9-9 (+0.6 Units) against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 9-9-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.6 Units)

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DETROIT (48-28-0-6, 102 pts.) at NASHVILLE (48-26-0-8, 104 pts.) - 4/13/2012, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NASHVILLE is 9-9 (+1.8 Units) against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
NASHVILLE is 9-9-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
11 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.6 Units)

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LOS ANGELES (40-27-0-15, 95 pts.) at VANCOUVER (51-22-0-9, 111 pts.) - 4/13/2012, 10:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
VANCOUVER is 11-7 (+1.3 Units) against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
VANCOUVER is 11-7-0 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
9 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.6 Units)

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**Udog** · 04-12-2012, 08:45 AM

NHL
Short Sheet

Thursday, April 12, 2012

EC Quaterfinals, Game One (0-0)
Ottawa at NY Rangers, 7:05 ET NHL
Ottawa: 15-6 Over off a road loss by 2+ goals
NY Rangers: 15-3 SU after losing 3 of their last 4 games

EC Quaterfinals, Game One (0-0)
Washington at Boston, 7:35 ET NBCSN
Washington: 27-12 SU off an Over
Boston: 2-8 SU off an overtime win

WC Quaterfinals, Game One (0-0)
San Jose at St. Louis, 7:35 ET CNBC
San Jose: 6-14 SU away with a total of 5 goals or less
St. Louis: 19-2 SU at home off a win

WC Quaterfinals, Game One (0-0)
Chicago at Phoenix, 10:05 ET NBCSN
Chicago: 7-16 SU away playing with same-season revenge
Phoenix: 19-7 SU off 3+ wins

**Udog** · 04-12-2012, 08:47 AM

NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, April 12, 2012

Senators @ Rangers-- Rangers have home ice advantage in playoff series for first time since ’96; New York is top seed in east, will have home ice in first three rounds, if they advance. Coach Tortorella won Cup with ’04 Lightning, but hasn’t won playoff series (0-4) since. Rangers are just 2-3 in first round series since ’98. Ottawa hasn’t won playoff series (0-2) since losing ’07 final to Ducks; overall they’re 5-7 in first round series. Rangers lost four of last five vs Ottawa. This is first time Ottawa/Rangers have met in playoffs; Blueshirts are 18-14 in Ottawa, but just 14-21 at home vs Senators. Rangers lost their last four regular season games, Senators lost their last three.

Caps @ Bruins-- Washington beat Bruins three of four this season, but Boston won Stanley Cup LY for first time since 1972 (first final since ’90); they won three of last four first round series, after not having a series win from 2000-07. Bruins split two previous playoff series with Washington, with last one 14 years ago. Capitols are 2-5 in first round series since losing in ’98 Cup finals; four of their last six playoff series went seven games (Caps 1-3 in those Game 7’s). Washington is 17-40 in Beantown; Bruins are 32-23 in DC. Washington won four of its last five games overall, Bruins won nine of last 12.

Sharks @ Blues-- St Louis swept Sharks 4-0 this season, outscoring them 12-3. Blues made Cup finals in first three years in existence (‘68-’70), but were swept all three times and have never been back. San Jose won seven of last eight first round series; they’ve lost in Western finals last two years, but are 31-43 vs St Louis, even though Sharks won two of three playoff series vs team, with last one in ’04. Blues haven’t won a playoff game in seven years, getting swept 4-0 by Canucks in ’09 series that’s their only playoff appearance in last six seasons, until now. Blues lost eight of last 12 games, overall; Sharks won their last four games to get to this point.

Blackhawks @ Coyotes-- Phoenix Coyotes have never won playoff series (0-7) since moving to desert; their last such win was in ’93 as Winnipeg Jets- overall, they’re 2-18 in playoff series (0-10 vs Detroit/Edmonton), but they come into playoffs red-hot, winning last five games while allowing only two goals. This is their first playoff meeting with the Blackhawks, who won Stanley Cup two years ago, its first since ’61, then got beat in first round LY; since ’97, they’re 2-3 in first round series. Coyotes won their last three games with Chicago, allowing four goals- they're 4-2 in last six visits to Windy City.

Devils @ Panthers-- Florida lost eight of last ten games coming into their first playoff appearance in 12 years. New Jersey missed playoffs LY, got beat in first round three years before that, so they’re starved for series win, but not as hungry as Florida, which last made playoffs when they lost Final in ’96, just their 3rd year in NHL- they haven’t won playoff series (0-2) since. Florida lost its only playoff series with New Jersey, scoring six goals total in four-game Devil sweep in ’00. New Jersey is 20-13 in Miami, 23-10 vs Panthers at home. Teams split 12 games over last three years, going 3-3 in each building.

**Udog** · 04-12-2012, 09:05 AM

NHL

Thursday, April 12

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
OTTAWA vs. NY RANGERS
Ottawa is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Rangers
Ottawa is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games on the road
NY Rangers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Ottawa
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of the NY Rangers last 11 games when playing at home against Ottawa

7:30 PM
SAN JOSE vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of San Jose's last 10 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
San Jose is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against San Jose
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Jose

7:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. BOSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Washington's last 18 games when playing Boston
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Boston's last 18 games when playing Washington
Boston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington

10:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. PHOENIX
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Chicago is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Phoenix's last 9 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix's last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago

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**Udog** · 04-12-2012, 09:07 AM

NHL

Thursday, April 12

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Ice picks: Thursday’s best NHL bets
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San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues (-155, 5)

Despite everything the St. Louis Blues accomplished in the regular season, many are wondering if this team is all it’s cracked up to be.

The Blues don’t have a dominant scorer (David Backes paced the team with 54 points in the regular season) and rarely blow any team away, but what they do is defense. They’re responsible in all three zone and have had great goaltending with Brian Elliott and Jaroslav Halak splitting time in the crease.

In short, they’re everything coach Ken Hitchcock wants them to be.

"The players' buy-in has really made me proud," Hitchcock told reporters. "They've been willing to look in the mirror, do the hard things, change in some cases individually, and collectively. I'm very impressed. That's what's given us a chance."

They have a great chance to get a leg up on the Sharks in Game 1. The Blues won all four meetings between the two teams this season while shutting out the Sharks twice.

St. Louis just doesn’t allow many quality scoring chances and you never know what you’ll get from the Sharks this time of year.

Pick: Under

Chicago Blackhawks at Phoenix Coyotes (-125, 5)

The Coyotes might be the best bargain on Thursday’s board.

With Mike Smith leading the charge to the playoffs, Phoenix allowed just two goals during its current five-game winning streak and has downed Chicago in each of the last three meetings between the two clubs.

"We've worked hard, gone through some trials and tribulations throughout this year and the guys have hung in there," Phoenix coach Dave Tippett told reporters. "There were some times when it could have turned the other way and our guys grabbed it and kept pushing along. We've finished on a nice streak and hopefully we'll play our best hockey of the season in the playoffs."

Radim Vrbata certainly looks ready to go. He finished the regular season with five goals in the last five games and finished with 35 on the year.

Phoenix may not have Chicago’s firepower, but with Vrbata and Ray Whitney pacing the attack and Smith boarding up the net, watch out for the ‘Yotes.

Pick: Coyotes

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**Udog** · 04-12-2012, 09:37 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Thursday, April 12

Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
The Cubs look to salvage a game in the series and build on their 6-1 record in Matt Garza's last 7 starts. Chicago is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Cubs favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+110). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, APRIL 12

Game 951-952: Cincinnati at Washington (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Latos) 15.414; Washington (Gonzalez) 15.232
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-105); Under

Game 953-954: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Greinke) 14.747; Cubs (Garza) 15.671
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+110); N/A

Game 955-956: San Francisco at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 14.618; Colorado (Moyer) 13.986
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-130); Over

Game 957-958: Miami at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Buehrle) 15.424; Philadelphia (Blanton) 13.757
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Miami (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-115); Under

Game 959-960: Arizona at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 16.868; San Diego (Bass) 15.535
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Arizona (-135); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-135); Over

Game 961-962: Pittsburgh at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Karstens) 14.754; LA Dodgers (Capuano) 17.078
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-145); Under

Game 963-964: Tampa Bay at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 17.778; Detroit (Smyly) 16.551
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Over

Game 965-966: LA Angels at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Haren) 15.556; Minnesota (Liriano) 13.829
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-150); Under

Game 967-968: Seattle at Texas (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Vargas) 15.972; Texas (Holland) 16.931
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-230); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-230); Over

**Udog** · 04-12-2012, 09:48 AM

MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, April 12

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CINCINNATI (3 - 3) at WASHINGTON (4 - 2) - 1:05 PM
MAT LATOS (R) vs. GIO GONZALEZ (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 10-19 (-11.2 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 34-49 (-22.2 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 84-84 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 84-84 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 566-651 (+47.8 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 503-595 (+31.8 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MAT LATOS vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
LATOS is 3-1 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 2.19 and a WHIP of 1.094.
His team's record is 3-1 (+1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.1 units)

GIO GONZALEZ vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
GONZALEZ is 0-0 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.714.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

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MILWAUKEE (4 - 2) at CHICAGO CUBS (1 - 5) - 2:20 PM
ZACK GREINKE (R) vs. MATT GARZA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
GREINKE is 9-21 (-14.7 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 4-12 (-9.8 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
MILWAUKEE is 106-74 (+22.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 106-74 (+22.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 86-53 (+25.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 64-26 (+30.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
GREINKE is 24-8 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 24-8 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHICAGO CUBS are 1188-1271 (-238.7 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 76-118 (-33.9 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 76-93 (-31.9 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 69-95 (-34.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 646-652 (-124.9 Units) against the money line in day games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 76-93 (-31.9 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 50-66 (-23.9 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 3-0 (+3.0 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

ZACK GREINKE vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
GREINKE is 2-1 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.20 and a WHIP of 1.118.
His team's record is 2-1 (+0.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+0.9 units)

MATT GARZA vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
GARZA is 2-1 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 4.35 and a WHIP of 1.306.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.2 units)

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 4) at COLORADO (2 - 3) - 3:10 PM
MADISON BUMGARNER (L) vs. JAMIE MOYER (L)
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 118-98 (+30.6 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997.
MOYER is 76-28 (+29.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)
SAN FRANCISCO is 185-169 (+30.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.
COLORADO is 73-80 (-31.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 75-94 (-33.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 39-44 (-20.3 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 29-46 (-24.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 20-34 (-22.7 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 75-94 (-33.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 31-42 (-19.5 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-1 (+0.3 Units) against COLORADO this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.1 Units)

MADISON BUMGARNER vs. COLORADO since 1997
BUMGARNER is 2-3 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 2.25 and a WHIP of 1.182.
His team's record is 4-3 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.3 units)

JAMIE MOYER vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
MOYER is 3-4 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 4.43 and a WHIP of 1.366.
His team's record is 3-4 (-1.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-2. (+2.9 units)

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MIAMI (2 - 4) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 3) - 7:05 PM
MARK BUEHRLE (L) vs. JOE BLANTON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 50-71 (-18.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 485-453 (+46.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 since 1997.
MIAMI is 33-27 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-1 (+0.3 Units) against PHILADELPHIA this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

MARK BUEHRLE vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
BUEHRLE is 3-0 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 5.06 and a WHIP of 1.360.
His team's record is 3-0 (+3.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

JOE BLANTON vs. MIAMI since 1997
BLANTON is 6-2 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 3.33 and a WHIP of 1.296.
His team's record is 7-2 (+4.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-3. (+1.8 units)

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ARIZONA (4 - 1) at SAN DIEGO (2 - 4) - 10:05 PM
IAN KENNEDY (R) vs. ANTHONY BASS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 56-34 (+17.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 101-73 (+29.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 48-30 (+19.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 101-73 (+29.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 75-50 (+25.3 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 75-48 (+30.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
KENNEDY is 26-10 (+16.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KENNEDY is 12-5 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KENNEDY is 15-1 (+15.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KENNEDY is 26-10 (+16.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KENNEDY is 21-6 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SAN DIEGO is 49-69 (-19.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 9-21 (-11.5 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 37-50 (-16.4 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 37-48 (-14.4 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 29-50 (-17.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 37-50 (-16.4 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 39-71 (-31.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 25-36 (-13.8 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 10-24 (-16.8 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-1 (+0.0 Units) against ARIZONA this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

IAN KENNEDY vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
KENNEDY is 5-0 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 2.01 and a WHIP of 0.918.
His team's record is 6-1 (+5.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.3 units)

ANTHONY BASS vs. ARIZONA since 1997
No recent starts.

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PITTSBURGH (2 - 3) at LA DODGERS (5 - 1) - 10:10 PM
JEFF KARSTENS (R) vs. CHRIS CAPUANO (L)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 199-413 (-98.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
PITTSBURGH is 132-234 (-50.3 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +150 since 1997.
PITTSBURGH is 31-78 (-28.5 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 55-36 (+16.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against PITTSBURGH this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

JEFF KARSTENS vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
KARSTENS is 0-2 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.82 and a WHIP of 1.875.
His team's record is 2-2 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.2 units)

CHRIS CAPUANO vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
CAPUANO is 4-7 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 6.09 and a WHIP of 1.574.
His team's record is 7-8 (-3.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 8-6. (+1.9 units)

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TAMPA BAY (4 - 1) at DETROIT (4 - 1) - 1:05 PM
JEFF NIEMANN (R) vs. DREW SMYLY (L)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 105-75 (+20.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 45-26 (+16.9 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 95-73 (+18.0 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 18-6 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in road games in April games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 33-21 (+13.5 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
NIEMANN is 10-3 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NIEMANN is 17-6 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-1 (+0.5 Units) against DETROIT this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

JEFF NIEMANN vs. DETROIT since 1997
NIEMANN is 1-1 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.54 and a WHIP of 1.143.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.1 units)

DREW SMYLY vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
No recent starts.

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LA ANGELS (2 - 3) at MINNESOTA (1 - 4) - 1:10 PM
DAN HAREN (R) vs. FRANCISCO LIRIANO (L)
Top Trends for this game.
HAREN is 30-37 (-17.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HAREN is 11-17 (-12.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LA ANGELS are 623-613 (+64.9 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 370-304 (+55.9 Units) against the money line in day games since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 514-505 (+63.4 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 617-530 (+69.7 Units) against the money line after a loss since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 64-104 (-28.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 34-50 (-17.2 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 6-15 (-13.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Thursday over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 62-99 (-25.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 43-78 (-27.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
LIRIANO is 14-23 (-16.7 Units) against the money line in day games since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-1 (+0.6 Units) against LA ANGELS this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.2 Units)

DAN HAREN vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
HAREN is 5-3 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 3.26 and a WHIP of 1.159.
His team's record is 6-4 (+2.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-5. (-0.4 units)

FRANCISCO LIRIANO vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
LIRIANO is 1-2 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 7.16 and a WHIP of 1.653.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-2. (-2.3 units)

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SEATTLE (4 - 3) at TEXAS (4 - 2) - 2:05 PM
JASON VARGAS (L) vs. DEREK HOLLAND (L)
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 133-199 (-57.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-24 (-17.9 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 42-79 (-31.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 34-64 (-31.1 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 130-187 (-49.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-29 (-16.3 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 25-64 (-30.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS is 43-17 (+20.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HOLLAND is 16-5 (+11.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SEATTLE is 102-84 (+29.9 Units) against the money line in road games in April games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 2-1 (-0.1 Units) against SEATTLE this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

JASON VARGAS vs. TEXAS since 1997
VARGAS is 3-4 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.426.
His team's record is 3-6 (-1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-7. (-5.6 units)

DEREK HOLLAND vs. SEATTLE since 1997
HOLLAND is 4-1 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 3.10 and a WHIP of 1.106.
His team's record is 4-2 (+0.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.2 units)

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**Udog** · 04-12-2012, 09:50 AM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, April 12

Not a lot of relevant info to give out this early in the season, but we'll do what we can for the first week or so, until some trends develop.

Hot pitchers
-- Latos is 2-1, 2.21 in his last three starts. Gonzalez is 4-1, 2.20 in his last five starts.
-- Garza is 2-0, 2.32 in his last four starts.
-- Buehrle is 2-1, 1.89 in his last three starts.
-- Bass was 2-0, 1.20 in three starts LY, going five innings in all three.
-- Karstens has a 1.50 RA in his last starts, but no wins in his last six.

-- Texas won seven of Holland's last eight starts. Vargas is 4-0, 2.35 in his last six starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Greinke has a 5.16 RA in his last five starts.
-- Bumgarner is 1-2, 4.80 in his last three starts. Moyer is 0-4, 8.41 in his last five starts.
-- Blanton is 1-2, 3.97 in his last seven starts.
-- Kennedy is 1-1, 4.19 in his last three starts.
-- Capuano has a 6.46 RA in his last three starts.

-- Niemann is 3-3, 6.08 in his last seven starts. Smyly is making his first major league start for Detroit; he was 4-3, 1.18 in seven AA starts LY, and allowed three runs in 1.2 IP in his only AAA appearance this year. .
-- Haren is 1-3, 5.81 in his last four starts. Erratic Liriano is 2-2, 6.60 in his last six starts.
-- Seattle is 4-3 and hasn't played a home game yet.

Pitcher vs Opponent
-- Latos lost 2-1 in his only start vs Washington LY (2 runs/6 IP). Gio Gonzalez didn't pitch against the Reds LY.
-- Greinke allowed one run in 14 IP in his last two starts vs Cubs. Garza was 2-1, 4.79 in three starts vs Milwaukee LY.
-- Bumgarner was 2-1, 1.67 in four starts vs Colorado LY. Moyer gave up four runs in six IP in his last start vs SF, in April of 2010.
-- Blanton beat Florida 6-4 in his only '11 start against them, allowing three runs in five IP.
-- Kennedy was 3-0, 1.74 against the Padres last season.
-- Karstens allowed one run in 5.2 IP in his only start vs LA LY, game Pirates later won 4-1. Capuano was 1-1, 3.46 in two starts against the Pirates last season.

-- Niemann lost 5-2 in his only start vs Detroit LY (four runs/7.1 IP)
-- Haren was 2-0, 2.57 against the Twins LY. Liriano lost 7-1 in his only start vs Angels LY, giving up seven runs in five IP.
-- Vargas was 2-1, 3.92 against the Rangers LY. Holland was 3-0, 3.12 in his four starts vs Seattle LY.

Hot teams
-- Los Angeles won five of its first six games.
-- Milwaukee won four of its last five games.
-- Arizona won four of its first five games.

-- Tampa Bay/Detroit both won four of their first five games.
-- Texas won four of its first six games.

Cold teams
-- Philly lost three of its last four games. Marlins lost four of their first six games.
-- Pirates lost three of their last four games.
-- Reds lost three of their last five games.
-- Braves lost four of their first six games.
-- Cubs lost five of their last six games.
-- Colorado lost three of its last four games. Giants lost four of their first five games.
-- Padres lost four of their first six games.

-- Angels lost three of their last four games. Minnesota lost four of its first five games.

We're going to get into totals and umpires and that good stuff, once we get enough to lnowledge this season to make it all relevant.

**Udog** · 04-12-2012, 09:53 AM

MLB

Thursday, April 12

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Trend Report
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1:05 PM
CINCINNATI vs. WASHINGTON
Cincinnati is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games
Washington is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati

1:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. DETROIT
Tampa Bay is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Detroit
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

1:10 PM
LA ANGELS vs. MINNESOTA
LA Angels are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Angels's last 11 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Minnesota's last 25 games when playing LA Angels
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

2:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. TEXAS
Seattle is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Texas
Seattle is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Texas
Texas is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Texas's last 7 games at home

2:20 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. CHI CUBS
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 12 games when playing Chi Cubs
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Chi Cubs are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games
Chi Cubs are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

3:10 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. COLORADO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing on the road against Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 9 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado's last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Colorado is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco

7:05 PM
MIAMI vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Miami's last 10 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Philadelphia is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Miami

10:05 PM
ARIZONA vs. SAN DIEGO
Arizona is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
San Diego is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
San Diego is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

10:10 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. LA DODGERS
Pittsburgh is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games
LA Dodgers are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games at home

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**Udog** · 04-12-2012, 09:56 AM

MLB

Thursday, April 12

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Three up, three down: Best and worst MLB bullpens
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When you sit down to handicap a game, you often don't find yourself drifting over to the bullpen statistics. You want to know about the starters. You want to know about the lineup.

But many games are won and lost long after the aces have hit the showers. Let's take a look at some of the best and worst bullpens in the majors, as the season's first month rolls on.

The Best

Atlanta Braves

It’s tough to find weaknesses in the Braves' bullpen, if you look at it as a long-term strength and not the fact that Atlanta is just 1-4 so far this season. The numbers were simply startling last season, and it should take more than a rough start to sway bettors off Atlanta's relievers.

The bullpen finished first in ERA (3.03) and batting average against (.221) last year and took third in saves (52). The crew is struggling so far, despite already posting three holds, but the horses are there to think a turnaround is coming.

Craig Kimbrel had 46 saves and a 2.10 ERA last year, Jonny Venters had five saves and a 1.84 ERA, and Eric O'Flaherty posted a 0.98 ERA in 73 2-3 innings. Hang in there with Atlanta.

Arizona Diamondbacks

J.J. Putz is a shining example of how closers can reinvent themselves in this game, perhaps more than any other position. Putz was a disaster with the Mets in 2009, but after a stop with the White Sox, has found a home in Arizona. He already has three saves and four strikeouts in three innings, and heads a bullpen that is better than people think.

Arizona, with David Hernandez and Brad Ziegler behind Putz on the depth chart, already has four saves, five holds and a 1.15 ERA this season. A lot of people just remember Putz and his 45 saves last season as the Diamondbacks won the NL West. The truth is, the Diamondbacks' bullpen allowed just a .247 batting average against last year and led the majors with 58 team saves.

Texas Rangers

The bullpen wasn't tremendous last season, but the Rangers have been to consecutive World Series - not an easy feat in the American League. So, the relievers must be doing something right. And this year, they have more depth, more experience and - unlike Atlanta - they are off to a good start.

Texas has a 0.63 bullpen ERA to go along with two saves, five holds and a .157 batting-average against mark.

Joe Nathan, with 261 career saves entering the season, adds an edge from Minnesota and former starter Alexi Ogando already has two holds in three appearances. Keep in mind, he went 13-8 as a starter last season with 126 strikeouts.

The Worst

Houston Astros

With all due respect to Brett Myers - we realize closers can come back to life like Putz - the Astros may not give Myers enough opportunities to complete a comeback. This is a bullpen that was second to last in ERA last season (4.49) and dead last in saves (25).

The names behind Myers leave a lot to be desired, though up-and-down Brandon Lyon did have 20 saves back in 2010. After Lyon, you're looking at Wilton Lopez, David Carpenter, Wesley Wright, and Rhiner Cruz. There could be some tough sledding ahead.

Give the squad credit though. In a small sampling, the league is hitting just .208 off it so far.

Baltimore Orioles

Jim Johnson is trying to save the day for a club that was brutal on the back end last year. The Orioles finished 27th in bullpen ERA (4.18), amassed just 32 saves and Kevin Gregg lost his closer role along the way.

But Johnson gives the team some hope. He already has two saves, three strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA, and the bullpen has compiled 16 1-3 innings of work. There's not much after Gregg, now the setup man, unless Troy Patton, Luis Ayala, Matt Lindstrom, and Pedro Strop do it for you.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins, with injuries all over the place last season, managed 32 saves. But a closer look at the numbers shows the true problem: Minnesota just didn't have the depth and the talent to mix and match. As a result, it compiled a 4.51 bullpen ERA - worst in the majors - and relievers stomached 28 losses.

Matt Capps, with 31 saves the last two seasons, is the best of the bunch, and Glen Perkins, behind him, had 17 holds last year. But there's not much there after them. And though Nathan was hurt often and the club had to find ways to move on without him, it still might be a difficult thing not to have him around ... if nothing else as a mentor.

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**Udog** · 04-12-2012, 10:00 AM

MLB

Thursday, April 12

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Hot lines: Thursday's best MLB bets
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Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers (-115, 9)

Heading into the ninth inning in Game 2 of this series on Wednesday, Detroit Tigers supporters were likely congratulating each other on a 5-0 start to the season.

After all, Justin Verlander was still cruising along having thrown just 81 pitches and the Tigers owned a 2-0 lead.

Then everything fell apart. Verlander gave up a couple of singles, fired a wild pitch, and before you know it, he was out of the game. Tampa Bay ended up scoring four times in the ninth to earn a 4-2 victory.

Now the Tigers turn to Drew Smyly, who makes his MLB debut after winning the No. 5 spot in the rotation this spring. The 22-year-old lefty impressed the club early on, but he gave up three runs on three hits in a Triple-A start for Toledo last weekend, recording only five outs before getting the hook.

This is just Smyly’s second year of pro ball, so we might see some nerves early on.

Pick: Rays

Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals (-115, 8)

Dating back to last season, the Washington Nationals are 13-3 in their last 16 games as an underdog. It doesn’t look like you’ll be able to get the Nats with a dog tag Thursday, but it stands to show how much they’ve improved since the beginning of last season.

Gio Gonzalez is just one of the new faces in Washington’s rotation and he gets the honor of starting Thursday’s home opener.

"I think any one of these guys deserves the shot to [pitch] the home-game opener," Gonzalez said. "I don't really care how the rotation goes as long as I'm out there. Give me the ball and I'm going to go out there and try to do my best to win a game for the Nationals."

Gonzalez will be looking to bounce back from a rough debut with Washington. He gave up seven hits and four earned runs in 3 2/3 innings at Wrigley Field.

Pick: Nationals

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Thursday's Trends and Indexes - 4/12 (NBA, NHL, MLB, Misc.)

Thursday's Trends and Indexes - 4/12 (NBA, NHL, MLB, Misc.)

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